####018004403#### FXUS61 KALY 100638 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some storms could be severe, mainly along and south of Interstate 90. 2) Another round of showers and possible storms is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday. Severe weather is not expected with this second round. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Main forecast concern today continues to be another round of showers and storms as a shortwave trough, embedded in west- northwest flow aloft, approaches during the late morning and afternoon hours. This feature, combined with a northward lifting warm front, in a weak to moderately unstable airmass, will set the stage for another round of storms, some of which may become severe. As a result, SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for areas along and south of Interstate 90. Available high-res models to include both the HRRR and 3km NAM, show developing storms after the 18z timeframe. Fcst soundings from across the area show steep low-level lapse rates thanks to temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s later today. This combined with increasing moisture advection behind the warm front, should support MLCAPE values from 1000-1500 J/kg across the area later today. Despite decent synoptic forcing with the approaching shortwave, main limiting factor for a more widespread severe threat appears to be weaker deep layered shear fields as 0-6km bulk shear values are expected to range from 30-35 kts eastern NY and western New England, while stronger shear values remain out west across the southern Ontario and western New York. Given decent dry air aloft along with steep low-level lapse rates, the main threat with any storms that approach severe limits will be damaging wind gusts. That said, a humid airmass will once again lead to efficient rainfall with any storms, and WPC has also maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for the entire fcst area. Storms should track east and gradually weaken after the 00z timeframe with loss of daytime heating. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another shortwave trough and associated cold front approach the region. As of right now, precipitation looks to move in after the 00z Thursday time frame. Given the time of day, instability looks to remain fairly limited, and thunder activity should be isolated in nature. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06z/Monday...Nighttime RGB satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies with some thickening high clouds through the rest of tonight. Although dewpoints have been lowering, model soundings suggest a brief period of patchy fog/mist could develop at KGFL and KPSF near sunrise this morning lowering vsbys to MVFR/IFR however, any fog/mist that develops should dissipate shortly after daybreak. VFR conditions should then prevail across all the terminals from the morning through the afternoon before showers and thunderstorms move in from the west. Model guidance shows the possibility of thunderstorms from about 21z to 03z. Lowered vsbys and gusty winds are possible where thunderstorms develop. Winds tonight are light and/or calm before increasing out of the southeast 5-10 kt tomorrow with occasional gusts up to 15 kt. Winds then taper off to less then 5 kt into the evening and first half of the night. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32 AVIATION...53 ####018003307#### FXUS65 KPUB 100639 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1239 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot for the lower elevations on Monday and Tuesday with a Heat Advisory over eastern Fremont, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties - Cooler temperatures arrive on Thursday in which more widespread thunderstorms form increasing flash flooding concerns. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Another hot day is expected today and we've issued Heat Advisories for Fremont, Pueblo, El Paso, Otero, Bent, and Prowers Counties from 11am - 7pm. With persistent very hot temperatures, the heat begins to take its toll on the body - please drink a lot of water and try to remain in shade or indoors if you can. Outside of the hot temperatures, an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage continues for this afternoon and evening. Once again, the main risk will be gusty outflow. Once again, there was a rogue wind gust of around 70 MPH recorded in Huerfano County - so the question is where the next rogue 70 MPH wind gust will form for Monday afternoon? Overall the more prominent gusts will range from 30 to 50 MPH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Another hot day is expected on Tuesday with the potential for another Heat Advisory for Fremont, Pueblo, and El Paso County, however the temperatures decrease a few degrees so the eastern plains should not be included. Heights rise a little on Tuesday, which brings a slight drying prior to widespread mountain rainfall on Wednesday. The storms that do develop will still primarily be gusty outflow producers with winds up to 50 MPH under the strongest storms. Wednesday will be hot once again, but closer to seasonal, so no Heat Advisories are expected. However, data is trending towards heavy rainfall over the mountains, which raises concerns for flash flooding over the Aspen Acres and 24 burn scars. This trend will continue throughout the rest of the forecast period and even into next week. With the widespread rainfall temperatures will be below average for this time of year. Flash flooding will be an issue over the burn scars, urban corridors, and areas with saturated soils. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 High level VFR clouds will gradually dissipate overnight with winds remaining light and diurnally driven. Another round of high based showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday with gusty erratic outflow winds likely to impact all three terminals after 21-22z. TAFs will carry gusts up to 40 kts, but locally stronger gusts to around 50 kts could occur closer to decaying high based showers/tstorms. Winds will be driven by outflows into the evening though most of the activity should clear to the east of the terminals in the 01-02z timeframe. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-093-097-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...KT ####018005832#### FXUS61 KILN 100640 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 240 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An active weather pattern continues through mid week. While specific impact details remain uncertain, multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely across the area, bringing an increased potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Monday morning: The remnant cold pool air mass from the Sunday evening thunderstorms continues to modify into more unstable air. Increasing southwesterly flow is resulting in rising temperatures across portions of eastern Indiana and western Ohio within the last few hours. If thunderstorms are able to form on the leading edge of the low level jet, this recovery would present the opportunity for thunderstorms to organize and push southeastward into the local area later this morning. Rest of the day Monday: While any thunderstorm coverage during the morning would complicate factors going into this afternoon and evening, the broader picture still supports an increased potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Steady southwesterly flow continues to feed moisture northeastward resulting in plentiful CAPE across the boundary stretched from east to west from Iowa to southern Michigan. New thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, moving east and southeast throughout the late afternoon and evening. In addition to the main thunderstorm period later today, given the large area hot and humid conditions, smaller clusters of thunderstorms may develop around the area. Limited some of the higher temperature values in the NBM given the potential for thunderstorm activity. The low level jet remains strong into Monday night. Depending on the amount of lingering instability, there is plenty of support for thunderstorms to develop into Tuesday morning. Tuesday: Ongoing thunderstorms in the morning will complicate the overall forecast for Tuesday, however, a potent shortwave and strengthening southwesterly low-level supports an active day regardless any early activity. Deep-layer shear is stronger Tuesday when compared to Monday, with forecast soundings indicating 0-6 km shear of 40-50 knots. If conditions align Tuesday afternoon and evening, an organized MCS is likely through central Indiana into much of the local area. Swaths of severe wind and spin-up tornadoes would be likely as the line moves through the area. The exact placement and degree of organization of the line is what remains the most uncertain. While an organized MCS would likely use much of the instability over the area, much of the broader synoptic set up remains the same. Continued southwesterly flow within a strong low level jet will supply more moisture northeastward. Any lingering outflow boundaries could be the focus of thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. By now, flash flooding may be the main concern with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Elevated flash flooding concerns would likely require a northwest to southeast orientated outflow boundary. This would support repetitive rounds of thunderstorms over the same areas versus a progressive line that quickly moves through. Wednesday: The boundary is likely far enough south that chances for severe weather and flash flooding begin to decrease for the northern portions of the area. Another shortwave moves southeastward across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, supporting additional rounds of thunderstorms. Given that this event is still a couple days away, uncertainty is larger on the exact placement of the impacts. There is even the possibility that much of the damaging wind and flash flooding threats would be outside the local area or at least isolated to the far southern portions of the area. Rest of Period: Thursday, the mid-level ridge builds in a bit farther to the north, presenting another opportunity for thunderstorms. On top of the rainfall from the previous days, flooding of area rivers could now become an increasing problem. A strong enough trough progresses into the Northeast US to allow for a much needed dry period Friday into Saturday. There are signs that additional moisture may move back to the Ohio Valley, but the immediate concern is with the events over the next couple of days. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast uncertainty will remain high over the next few days as multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected. Now that the thunderstorm coverage has shifted eastward, attention shifts back to the northwest with ongoing thunderstorms across southern Michigan and Illinois. If these thunderstorms persist into the morning hours, some may eventually arrive to the local TAF sites. Now have PROB30s in for all sites, but the line of thunderstorms may weaken as it moves through. Otherwise, the next chance for new thunderstorms to form would be during the late afternoon and evening. Until timing and coverage details become more certain, will maintain PROB30s like previous forecasts. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, winds are out of the southwest. Gusts between 20 to 25 knots from around 16Z through 00Z. Thunderstorms remain possible through the overnight Monday, but confidence is currently less than PROB30 thresholds. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis