####018003382#### FXPQ50 PGUM 242003 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 603 AM ChST Thu Apr 25 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Local observations show partly cloudy skies, while satellite imagery shows some locally spotty showers over the Marianas. Altimetry shows 3 to 5 feet to the west of the Marianas. && .Discussion... Moderate trades prevail through out the region. Over the next several days, isolated showers may pop up as a few weak troughs were spotted on the ASCAT analysis, however, there is not much Precipitable Water (PWAT). Fire danger will remain a concern, and more of that in the Fire Weather section below. && .Marine... Altimetry shows 3 to 5 feet for the Marianas. Winds are expected to be gentle to moderate. Surf is expected to fluctuate between 5 and 7 feet over the weekend and beginning of next week. Risk of rip currents is expected to remain on the moderate category for the next several days. && .Fire weather... Total rainfall for yesterday was 5.57 inches. This made the KBDI sharply drop to 190. This is deceivingly low, due to most of the rain being run-off instead of being absorbed into the ground. This kind of weather pattern can produce a localized phenomenon know as the "Wutip Effect". This effect is a day of heavy rain then shortly afterwords a fairly dry pattern follows. This dry period may cause fires as the fuels were not able to absorb much water inspite of having over 5.5 inches of rainfall. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... Trade convergence will continue to fluctuate across central and eastern Micronesia. Multiple trade troughs and surges will also pass through the region. Expect scattered showers and some thunderstorms to continue for most of the period from Chuuk to Majuro. Showers will be numerous and heavy at times, but timing any particular heavy shower event past the next couple of days is difficult. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected through at least Saturday. Some strong gusts are possible as well, especially for Majuro. Combined seas of 5 to 8 feet (6 to 9 feet for Majuro). Seas could rise around a foot or two over the weekend for Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae, but lower a few feet for Majuro as trade swell pushes west. Winds and seas may decrease further through early next week. && .Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau... Generally isolated trade showers are expected for Yap over the coming days. Showers will be more scattered for Palau, with a potential for some thunderstorms, as surface troughs push into the republic over the coming days. In addition, a near-equatorial trough could develop near to south of Palau early next week, helping to keep the convection potential elevated for Palau, but unlikely to bring an increase for Yap. Moderate to fresh winds and combined seas of 4 to 7 feet are expected to continue through the weekend, but remember that winds will be gusty and seas choppy near the heavier showers. Winds and seas could decrease next week as the trade flow decreases as the NET develops and creeps north. .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas/Fire Weather: Bowsher Micronesia: Slagle ####018003535#### FXUS64 KMEG 242004 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 304 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A warm front will slowly approach the Mid-South from the southwest on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday. Increased cloud cover and rainfall will hold temperatures down by several degrees, especially over eastern Arkansas. Once the warm front moves north of the region on Friday, above normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected for Saturday and Sunday with the greatest chance of rain remaining west of the Mississippi River. Thunderstorm chances will increase across all the Midsouth by Monday, focused along a Pacific cold front and aided by an upper level low pressure system. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to around 80 degrees. The frontal boundary that moved through north Mississippi earlier today is now draped across the central portion of the state. This front is expected to stall out across central Mississippi this evening, with dry weather for the entire Mid-South. Temperatures will be close to normal tonight with lows Thursday morning in the mid 40s to upper 50s. The front will slowly lift north on Thursday before moving into the region by late Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the front and move into the Mid-South as early as Thursday morning and becoming more widespread for Thursday afternoon and evening. North of the warm front, temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday due to increased cloud cover and the threat of rain. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. Once the warm front lifts north of the region on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will become less widespread and more scattered in nature. Temperatures will be warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A Pacific cold front will be slowly moving into the central and southern Plains on Friday with a few thunderstorms possibly moving into western sections of the Mid- South. This Pacific front will move very slowly east over the weekend with additional showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday. The greater chance of rain will be over the northwest half of the region. Temperatures will remain above normal for the weekend. The cold front will finally move across Arkansas on Monday and through the Mid-South by Tuesday afternoon. With the front getting closer to the region showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread for Monday before gradually decreasing behind the front on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most sites through the TAF period. Shower activity may impact JBR and MEM as early as 13z tomorrow, but confidence in the exact timing of this activity remains too low for the inclusion of anything beyond VCSH at this time. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS AVIATION...JPR