####018007857#### FXUS65 KBYZ 111041 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 341 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southwest to west winds along the foothills west of Billings today. Gusts of 60 to 75 mph are expected from Livingston to Big Timber and Harlowton, while gusts of 50 to 60 mph spread as far east as Rapelje and Molt. - Cold front arrives late today, bringing a sharp drop in temperatures and rain changing to accumulating snow. A flash freeze with roads quickly turning icy may result in treacherous travel conditions late this afternoon and evening. Cold temps will persist through Saturday. - Greatest snow accumulations tonight into Saturday are expected to be over the plains, generally from Harlowton to Billings and eastward towards Miles City and Broadus, where there is a 60 to 80 percent chance of at least 6 inches of snow. Snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are anticipated. - Warmer and drier weather expected to return by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through next Wednesday... Big changes coming by this evening...BE READY. Have issued a variety of winter highlights which begin later today. Please stay in touch with the forecast for your area! Strong downslope flow is yielding absurdly warm temperatures on this night, with most of the west half of our cwa seeing 50s to lower 60s as of 3am. Livingston's all-time December record is 64F and the current temp is a not-so-far-off 55F. The main story for today is wind, of course, and we have been seeing frequent gusts of 60-70 mph from Livingston to Big Timber and Melville, and near Nye. Given the warm temps and well-mixed boundary layer at this time, am concerned about strong winds pushing eastward somewhat today, during the favored pre-frontal hours as 700mb winds are still 50-60 knots. Have expanded the High Wind Warning to include northern Stillwater and Golden Valley from 5am this morning to 5pm. High temps today will range from the 40s east to mid 50s to lower 60s west...of perhaps mid 60s if there are any sun breaks. Current surface analysis shows a Canadian cold front just north of the MT/AB border. In fact, the fropa reached Lethbridge at 11pm. Climatological arctic frontal timing would place the front to Billings by early afternoon, but models show it slowing as it awaits a shortwave passage (currently moving from BC into AB). Once the front reaches Cut Bank it is on average 10 hours from Billings, so this will need to be monitored. The reason? Once the fropa occurs we will see a rapid drop in temperatures, such that rain changing to snow has a real risk of resulting in a flash freeze and very icy travel conditions by this evening. Local knowledge strongly suggests the post-frontal cooling will be faster than guidance shows. At this time, fropa timing looks like: Judith Gap and Miles City 1-3pm, Billings 3-5pm, Sheridan 4-6pm. Expect sub-freezing temps within 2-3 hours of the fropa. Eastern areas should see scattered rain showers today becoming snow showers in the afternoon, while the west's precip will hold off til the front arrives. There should be a brief 1-3 hour window of rain or mixed precip before the change to snow. The frontal push will be followed quickly by overrunning snowfall per a very moist Pacific flow. This initial period of overrunning will impact our west to central parts through much of Friday before beginning to shift to the northeast. By Friday evening, the west and south should be finished while accumulation continues in the northeast into Saturday. On Saturday, another shortwave passage should bring another southwestward push of the cold air and in all likelihood a little more precip. Then the event ends. Ensemble QPF of 0.40-0.70" in the favored areas east of the foothills would yield a good 6-10" snowfall with healthy snow ratios achieved from a deepened DGZ. Areas near the foothills will see the least snowfall, per the cold air being shallower and a strong downslope component off the mountains. Temps during this time will be much colder, mostly single digits and teens. In fact, foothills locations at/above 5-6kft will be quite a bit warmer. One thing to think about: once the main axis of snowfall shifts to the northeast late Friday and Friday night, the shallow cold air will remain east of the foothills, with mid level warming and drying. It is plausible that we could see fog/freezing drizzle in this environment, before the true downslope warming arrives (looks like Saturday night). With abundant fresh snow cover we will likely see some remarkable low level inversions Saturday night into Sunday. When downslope winds surface the warmup will be quick. There will also be a brief risk of blowing snow. Sunday through next Thursday looks mostly mild and breezy, with temps back to the 40s to mid 50s. This is the overwhelming ensemble consensus. Models are starting to hint at a lowering of heights and a Pacific wave by Wed/Thu. The Canadian cold air to our north is extensive so once the zonal flow buckles along the Pacific coast we will see another arctic blast. It's only a matter of time. JKL .AVIATION... Strong winds along the western foothills will continue through this afternoon (22Z) with winds gusting 50-70 kts (KLVM, K6S0, K3HT). Rain east of Billings is expected to become more widespread through the morning and early afternoon before a cold front begins to change precipitation to snow around 21Z. Snow is expected to continue across southeast Montana through Friday. MVFR and IFR conditions will be common under snow bands with a 10-20% chance for LIFR conditions. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 059 013/019 008/021 010/047 031/046 038/048 032/045 7/W ++/S 43/S 00/B 00/B 01/B 33/W LVM 059 020/035 028/040 033/053 035/052 037/050 033/046 6/W 87/S 12/O 00/N 00/N 13/W 44/W HDN 057 013/018 006/021 008/045 022/045 030/048 027/044 6/W ++/S 74/S 00/B 00/B 01/B 34/W MLS 046 005/009 902/012 001/040 023/040 029/045 026/040 5/W 27/S +4/S 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W 4BQ 053 012/016 007/019 010/043 026/044 032/047 029/043 5/W 48/S 85/S 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/W BHK 043 902/005 907/009 903/041 023/043 029/045 023/040 7/W 13/S +4/S 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W SHR 060 015/027 010/031 018/054 026/052 032/052 027/047 7/W 96/S 32/S 00/U 00/U 01/B 23/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST Friday FOR ZONES 29-42-63-173-228. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Friday FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37. Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37. High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR ZONES 34-42-63-65-66-141-172-228. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST Friday FOR ZONES 34-57-58-138-141-172-235. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST Friday FOR ZONE 68. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to noon MST Friday FOR ZONES 169-170. WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to noon MST Friday FOR ZONE 199. && $$ weather.gov/billings ####018008368#### FXUS62 KJAX 111043 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 543 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Small Craft Advisory This Morning, with Small Craft Advisory likely again Sunday night through Monday night. - For Tonight, Light Freeze inland Southeast GA and Suwannee Valley, and Areas to Widespread Frost coastal GA and south part of Suwannee Valley. - Freeze and Hard Freeze Possible for inland areas Late Sunday night and again Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A dry cold front will continue to pass through the area over the early predawn hours this Morning. Behind the front, light to breezy northwesterly winds will continue into the afternoon hours, ushering in dry and cooler air from the northwest. Daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s across SE GA and towards the I-10 corridor in NE FL, while locations along and south of I-10 will be in the lower to mid 60s. High pressure builds and be centered overhead by Tonight. With calm winds and clear skies, conditions will be prime for good radiational cooling. Temperatures are expected to dip to or just below freezing across inland SE GA and along the I-10 corridor west of the JAX metro. As such the Freeze watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for these locations where we can expect a light Freeze and widespread Frost to develop during the overnight hours into Friday Morning. For locations south of the I-10 corridor and coastal SE GA, Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, while coastal locations in NE FL will mainly be in the lower 40s. A Frost Advisory is also in place for locations bordering the freeze warned locations of NE FL and coastal SE GA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Mainly zonal flow in the mid levels across the area Friday with some backing occurring as southern stream energy moves through the Gulf late Fri into Fri night. By Sat and Sat night, mid level troughing will amplify across the region as a strong mid to upper level trough/shortwave moves out of Canada into the Great Lakes and NE CONUS. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear this period. At the sfc, a weak ridge of high pressure will remain over central and north central FL during the period resulting in a moderation of temps, and winds that will remains light southwesterly for most areas. Fairly seasonable temps this period. Highs on Friday in the mid 60s north zones to lower 70s far south zones, and warming up a bit more for Saturday to upper 60s north zones to mid 70s south zones. Widespread lower to mid 40s on Friday night and a few degrees warmer Saturday night, as low level winds come around to southwest and increase slightly as a cold front approaches. In addition, with pooling low level moisture, we have placed in some patchy fog for inland areas around Suwannee Valley early Saturday morning, and toward the south interior zones early Sunday morning, given the light wind to calm wind and clear skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The strong mid/upper level trough across the northeast CONUS will pivot across the east coast quickly, sending a cold front into the area on Sunday. The cold front, possibly accompanied by a few showers over southeast GA, will sweep through the area fairly quickly with a rapid shift to the northwest behind the front and much cooler and drier air filtering into southeast GA and northeast FL. The 850 mb temps drop to about the 10-15 percentile per climatology by late Sunday night and into Monday morning. The strong 1037 mb high pressure system behind the front will be positioned over the TN valley Monday morning which will then shift southward into Monday night and then shift eastward on Tuesday, leaving a ridge axis across GA into Wed. Mid level heights will rise over the region Tue- Wed as a potent mid to upper level trough moves into TX and the northwest Gulf. Temperatures will be a roller coaster of sorts with highs on Sunday in the 60s over southeast GA, and lower 70s. Larger changes made with this forecast with lows for Monday morning with potential for hard freeze (mid 20s) for most of southeast GA, and a freeze over the Suwannee Valley. Wind chills Monday morning may meet wind chill advisory for the north half of the area. Highs on Monday well below normal with only the 40s for southeast GA and lower to mid 50s for northeast FL, with lower 60s for north central FL. Winds will be breezy Sunday night into Monday with the coastal areas seeing north- northeast winds gusting to about 30-35 mph. Another cold morning Tuesday morning with similar lows in the mid to upper 20s for southeast GA, and around 30-35 for inland northeast FL. The coastal areas will not be as cold given the winds will be turning onshore. "Warmer" on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s for north zones around 70 far south zones. Temps moderate by Wed morning but still chilly inland as low as 35-40 inland but upper 40s to around 50 coast. Finally by Wednesday, afternoon temps return to near climatology with some increase in clouds as mid level winds veer aloft and moisture starts to return toward the area. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... VFR will prevail through this TAF period. However, toward the end of the period after about 06Z-08Z Friday, there are low chances of some vsby problems around GNV and VQQ down to at least MVFR, but low confidence for any mention in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, west to northwest winds of about 7-11 kt will prevail today which will become light/variable or calm after 00z Fri. && .MARINE... West to northwest winds will continue to strengthen Tonight as a dry cold front moves across the area. Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist over the local waters Tonight and continue until Thursday morning. A high pressure center will build into the area Thursday into Friday and then shift offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary. This front will likely remain dry as it crosses our local waters on Sunday night. Strong high pressure building to the north of our region in the wake of this frontal passage will result in strengthening northerly winds on Sunday night that will shift to northeast on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely throughout our local waters from Sunday night through Monday night. Gusts near gale force will be possible. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of rip currents across area beaches today. Low Risk of rip currents by Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... For today, winds become northwesterly behind the passage of a weak cold front, bringing cooler temperatures and drier air across the area. Min RHs drop into the lower to mid 30% range for most locations today and Friday. Fair to Good Dispersions today will trend downward by the end of the week with Poor dispersions across north central Florida and Fair dispersions across southeast Georgia on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 32 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 58 39 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 35 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 40 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 64 35 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 65 36 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-120-220-322-422-522. Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ031-035-124- 136-225-232-236-425. GA...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ450- 452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ470- 472-474. && $$