####018009021#### FXUS61 KBUF 140958 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 558 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Mainly dry weather continues through Saturday. 2.) The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases this Saturday night into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Mainly dry weather continues through Saturday. NW'erly flow aloft affects Western and Central NY through Saturday as a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the Canadian Prairies and vicinity. Primarily fair weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, a prominent shortwave trough embedded in the flow aloft will traverse central Lake Ontario, the Genesee Valley, and points east in our CWA this afternoon through early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the same areas and during the same time period as low-level convergence and moist ascent along a surface trough axis accompanying the shortwave trough and any downshear outflow boundaries interacting with sufficient low-level vertical wind shear release weak boundary layer CAPE amidst moderate to strong deep-layer bulk shear. Similar to yesterday, a lack of greater instability should prevent storms from becoming severe. Weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will result in negligible air mass change through Saturday. Daily highs in the 70's to lower 80's are expected today and Saturday. Mainly clear to partly cloudy sky and weak surface winds should result in lows reaching mainly the upper 40's to near 60F around daybreak today and Saturday, respectively. The coolest lows are expected in Lewis County, especially the Black River Valley, where efficient radiational cooling should be complemented by cool air drainage from adjacent higher terrain. Sufficient radiational cooling and low-level moisture are expected to result in patchy radiation fog and localized steam fog in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region during the predawn hours through shortly after daybreak today and Saturday, respectively. Key Message 2...The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases this Saturday night into Sunday. During Saturday night through Sunday morning, the above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward and be followed by W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs. Surface weather pattern evolution is less certain, but latest trends in more-reliable NWP models, including the ECMWF model, continue to suggest a surface warm front will sweep NE'ward through our CWA Saturday night through Sunday morning as a surface low wobbles ESE'ward in vicinity of the northern Great Lakes. The warm front will usher-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf. Moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface front should release enough CAPE, including elevated CAPE, to generate periodic and scattered showers/thunderstorms, especially Sunday morning. Lows should reach mainly the 50's to mid 60's early Sunday morning before readings begin to moderate before daybreak as low-level WAA strengthens ahead of and behind the surface warm front. Lows should reach the 50's to mid 60's early Sunday morning before readings begin to moderate before daybreak as low-level WAA strengthens ahead of and behind the surface warm front. Cyclonic W'erly to WNW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs should impact our region this Sunday afternoon through Monday. At the surface, the low may wobble ESE'ward from near the northern Great Lakes to near the Gulf of Maine, which should allow a cold front to sweep E'ward through our CWA Sunday evening through Sunday night. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold front, amidst weak to perhaps moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer bulk shear. Severe storms appear possible Sunday afternoon into the evening, but their occurrence will be contingent on multiple factors, including the degree of diurnal destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer. Behind the cold front, a surface ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through Monday. However, isolated rain showers remain possible since subtle shortwave troughs aloft and attendant surface trough axes should traverse Western and Central NY generally from west to east. In addition, 850 mb temperatures cooling to near 10C over the ~23C to ~24C eastern Great Lakes and sufficient low-level moisture on the synoptic scale should allow isolated lake-effect rain showers to impact areas generally southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, amidst at least weak lake-induced instability and a NW'erly mean low-level flow, overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. High temperatures are forecast to reach the 70's to lower 80's Sunday afternoon. Lows should reach mainly the upper 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Monday. Late afternoon highs should reach the 70's on Monday as a somewhat cooler air mass overspreads the eastern Great Lakes, behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR and dry weather expected through 12Z/Sat. Simultaneously and at the surface, a high pressure ridge builds from the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Lakes. However, a trough axis will sweep SE'ward across central Lake Ontario, the Genesee Valley, and points east in our region between ~18Z/Fri and ~00Z/Sat. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this trough axis over the same areas and during the same time period. Brief MVFR to LIFR and brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots may accompany the showers and especially storms. Outside of these showers and storms, surface winds should trend light and variable across Western and Central NY through the TAF period. Note: patchy radiation mist/fog, steam mist/fog, and associated MVFR to LIFR are expected before ~13Z/Fri and from ~04Z/Sat through 12Z/Sat, especially in/near the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, including KJHW, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region, perhaps including KART. Outlook... Saturday...Dry weather and VFR expected outside any patchy fog before ~13Z. Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected. Monday...Isolated rain showers with MVFR possible. Monday Night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected. However, valley fog possible Monday night through about daybreak. && .MARINE... A high pressure ridge builds from the Canadian Prairies and settles over the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday. This ridge is expected to be accompanied by variable winds around 5 to 10 knots through tonight and mainly NE'erly to E'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots on Saturday. Waves of 2 feet or less are expected. The ridge begins to exit E'ward Saturday night and a low should wobble ESE'ward from near the northern Great Lakes to near the Gulf of Maine Saturday night through Monday. This low track should allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Saturday night and especially on Sunday before a cold front sweeps E'ward across the lakes Sunday evening through Sunday night. The warm front passage will cause mainly E'erly to SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to SW'erly. Then, the cold front passage will cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly to NW'erly. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected Saturday night through Sunday night. Note: periodic showers and thunderstorms should impact central and eastern Lake Ontario this afternoon into early evening and Lakes Erie and Ontario this Saturday night through Sunday night. Showers and especially storms may produce localized/brief strong winds and larger waves. Behind the cold front, a high pressure ridge builds slowly from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through this Tuesday. W'erly to N'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are forecast on Monday through Monday night. On Tuesday, N'erly to W'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots should back to SW'erly as the ridge begins to exit toward New England. Waves of 2 feet or less are forecast. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Jaszka ####018006887#### FXUS63 KSGF 141000 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 500 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area today through Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to 110 will continue to occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the middle 70s to around 80. - Low chances (5-20%) for an isolated thunderstorm north of Highway 54 during the afternoon and evening hours today and Saturday. Brief heavy downpours and an isolated strong wind gust are the main hazards. Thunderstorm coverage will remain limited across the area and most if not all locations will likely remain dry. - There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk Sunday evening/night into Monday morning for portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 The ridge of high pressure and hot air mass will remain in place over the region today into the weekend. Highs will continue to warm into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees today through Sunday with afternoon and early evening heat index values around 105 to 110. Warm overnight lows will also continue through Sunday as lows only cool into the middle 70s to the lower 80s each night. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area through 8 PM Sunday. The longevity of the extreme heat with limited overnight relief will elevate the heat risk and potential impacts. Gusty south to southwesterly winds will also continue to occur during the morning and afternoon hours each day through the weekend, especially west of Highway 65. Afternoon humidity values will also continue to drop into the 30 to 40% range each afternoon today and this weekend. Thunderstorms have developed and are moving northeast across portions of central and northern Kansas early this morning. This activity will remain north of the area as the ridge is keeping the storm track north of the area. Instability will increase this afternoon/early evening, and the cap will weaken some across the far northern portions of the area. There is a low chance (<15%) for an isolated thunderstorm developing north of Highway 54 this afternoon/early evening. To the south the cap will be stronger and there will also be a drier air mass in the mid levels which will limit the thunderstorm potential. Most, if not all, of the area should remain dry today as chances are low and if a storm can develop coverage will be limited. Showers and storms should develop again tonight across portions of Kansas into northern Missouri, and are expected to remain north of the area again. There is a low chance (<20%) for an isolated thunderstorm or two developing mainly along and north of Highway 54 Saturday afternoon and evening as the cap weakens some in these locations again. Just like today the cap will remain stronger to the south of Highway 54 limiting the thunderstorm potential for these locations. Most, if not all, of the area should remain dry again on Saturday. If a storm can develop gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall would be possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 The upper level ridge will start to push back to the west some Sunday evening/night as an upper level disturbance moves out of the plains Sunday night into Monday. Thunderstorms will be possible across the central Plains ahead of the disturbance and could develop into a complex of storms and move southeast into portions of the area Sunday evening/night into Monday morning. There will be the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms with this activity Sunday evening into Monday morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the main risk, especially with any line segments that can develop. This will be a complex of storms and the exact track will be dependent on just how far the ridge pushed back to west Sunday night and also where the storms develop before tracking to the east/southeast. The storms could be banded in nature. Precipitable water values will be around 2" so heavy rainfall rates will be possible with the storms therefore the potential for locally heavy rainfall will occur, especially where any storms can training. There is currently a Marginal Risk for Severe storms and also a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall across much of the area Sunday night into Monday morning. Slightly cool temperatures are posisble across much of the area on Monday, with highs in the middle 80s (central MO) to the middle 90s (extreme southeastern KS). Will have to watch just how far back to the west the ridge pushes on Monday. If the ridge pushes further to the west the hotter temperatures would also push further back to the west, but if ridge remains further to the east highs would then be hotter to the east especially across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri on Monday. The Ridge is then expected to build back to east on Tuesday and over the entire area by Wednesday. Highs could range from the upper 80s across central Missouri to near 100 across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri on Tuesday. If the ridge does not push as far west Sunday night/Monday the hotter conditions could move further east on Tuesday as some of the ensemble model members bring the ridge further east on Tuesday. Highs in the middle 90s to around 100 are expected across the entire area on Wednesday. The 00Z ensemble model members are then pushing the ridge back to the west late next week as an upper level shortwave moves southeast trough the region. This would push the hotter air mass back to the west and also bring some rain chances to the area late next week as the trough moves through the region. There are still differences between the models on just how far west the ridge pushes back especially from run to run. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected across the area today through tonight into Saturday. Gusty south to southwesterly wind will occur at times this morning and afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Wise