####018004157#### FXUS66 KSGX 070954 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 154 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Patchy low clouds and fog possible near the coast this morning and again tonight. Warm and dry through the week with periods of weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages in the inland valleys. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A few thin patches of fog are developing over the coastal waters this morning with clear skies elsewhere. Surface dew points have been trending downwards along the coast with weak drainage flow, so chances of fog forming right along the coast are diminishing. The HREF has a 20-40% chance of dense fog over the coastal waters tonight into Monday morning, but coverage of any fog would be sparse. The upper level ridge of high pressure over the East Pac will strengthen but remain relatively stationary through Tuesday, then weaken slightly as it shifts eastwards over Western US through the end of the week. At the surface, persistent surface high pressure over the Great Basin will drive Santa Ana winds across So Cal through Saturday. Gradual warming takes place through Tuesday with the strengthening winds and increasing offshore flow, when highs will be as much as 10-20 degrees above normal. Widespread highs in the low to mid 80s is forecast across the inland coastal areas into the valleys as well as the low deserts. With winds being purely gradient-driven, they will be confined to the usual passes, canyons, and coastal slopes each night through early afternoon. The first peak in the winds is still forecast to be on Tuesday, though models have trended weaker with peak gusts now around 25-40 mph in the wind-prone areas. Weaker Santa Ana winds and the weakening high will allow for minor cooling Wednesday and Thursday, though highs remain around 10-15 degrees above normal inland. Ensembles are now showing another peak in Santa Ana winds on Friday, when surface pressure gradients are now forecast to be strongest this week. This will bring another bump up in high temperatures, mainly west of the mountains with highs once again nearing 20 degrees above normal in the valleys. Nights and mornings will remain cool, especially in the wind-sheltered areas, minimizing any heat impacts. The upper ridge continues to weaken next weekend, and weak offshore flow on Saturday will transition back to onshore flow on Sunday, bringing slow cooling through the weekend. By Sunday high temperatures will "only" be 8-13 degrees above normal inland. && .AVIATION... 070930Z....Chances for low clouds and fog development along the coastal locations have gone down from earlier with San Diego seeing chances of less than 10% and Orange County at 10-20% through 18Z this morning. Low clouds seem to be keeping their distance and staying out over the water for the time being. Chances begin to increase after 01Z Monday for patchy fog and low cloud development along the coast with the highest chances occurring after 04Z for San Diego County and after 09Z for Orange County through 18Z. Until then, VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites. && .MARINE... Still a 10-20% chance of dense fog with visibility 1 nautical mile or less developing this morning through 11 AM. && .BEACHES... Morning high tide is predicted to be 6.5 around 10 AM this morning. Astronomically high tides may result in tidal overflow in normally dry beach areas. High tide is predicted to fall below 6 ft by Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Villafane ####018007374#### FXUS61 KBTV 070956 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 456 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and less humid conditions are expected for the rest of the week. High pressure to our north will provide a few days of dry weather before rain chances increase Friday onward. Friday night and Saturday will see some heavier showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce locally heavy rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 452 AM EST Sunday...Snow showers continue across portions of the region early this morning, with reflectivities reinvigorating a bit in the southern Champlain Valley. Webcams also indicate some flurries falling in the higher elevations of the central Greens and Adirondacks. This should dissipate as we head through the morning hours, but have gone ahead and increased PoPs in these areas just to show isolated/scattered activity through daybreak. Any snow accumulation will be light. Otherwise, based on current satellite imagery, cloud cover looks to remain fairly widespread, with any partly cloudy skies staying limited to northern VT, especially east of the Greens. Cloud cover forecast has also been updated to match these trends. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed. Previous discussion...A thin band of moderate to very briefly heavy snow showers continues to slowly sink southward across the region early this morning. It should gradually wane in intensity and coverage as it pushes through the Adirondacks and the central/southern Greens, with any snow accumulations generally an inch or less. Better chances for snow arrive this afternoon as a weak clipper low pressure system slides along the boundary. Neither forcing nor moisture are overly impressive with this system, so anticipate just light snow to overspread the area from west to east this afternoon into the evening hours. Snow persists through the first part of the overnight, but it will quickly taper to mountain snow showers as the low pushes to our east by midnight tonight. Overall snow accumulation will be 1 to 4 inches, highest in the Adirondacks and northern/central Greens. Winds will be light through the day as the low moves directly overhead, but they will increase overnight tonight as cold air advection sets up behind the low. Hence there could be a bit of blowing snow in more open areas. Temperatures will fall as well; after daytime highs in the upper teens to upper 20s, expect temperatures to drop into the single digits by early Monday morning. The combination of fresh snow cover, patchy blowing snow, and falling road temperatures could make for a slippery Monday morning commute. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 101 AM EST Sunday...Other than a few lingering snow showers across the northern Greens and Northeast Kingdom, expect Monday to be dry under decreasing clouds. Cold air advection will continue on breezy north/northwest winds. Highs will only reach into the 10F to 20F range; when combined with winds gusting to 20 mph, wind chills will remain near to below zero for much of the day. The higher elevations will be even colder as wind chills remain below -20F. Bitterly cold conditions will continue Monday night as high pressure settles directly over the region. With fresh snow cover and light winds, radiational cooling will be optimal. The only potential snag will be increasing high clouds, but current thinking is they'll be thin and/or patchy enough to limit their impact on overnight temperatures. Lows of -10F to +5F seem reasonable at this point, with some of our usual cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks potentially approaching -15F. High pressure shifts to the east on Tuesday, making way for another clipper system approaching from the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase through the day, but the bulk of precipitation will hold off until late Tuesday afternoon. A turn toward south flow will allow temperatures to warm into the 20s, with a few spots hitting 30F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 101 AM EST Sunday...An active northwest flow longwave pattern continues through the period with several, albeit mainly weak northern stream shortwave troughs swinging through our area in the Wednesday-Sunday time frame. The strongest of these affects our region Wed/Wed evening with a climo-favored track through the SLV. As such, a mixed light rain/light snow scenario will likely unfold through these periods with latest probabilistic data, including most recent NBM runs concurring. QPF should be relatively light to modest, but a few inches of additional snowfall should be likely, especially in areas outside the broad valleys where boundary layer warming and brisk southerly flow will likely put a cap on totals. Thereafter, a general trend toward colder weather arrives for the late week time frame with on and off chances for light snow showers/flurries, most favored in the northern higher terrain. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Mainly BKN/OVC VFR through 18Z outside brief IFR/MVFR -shsn through 07-08Z at selected northern terminals with passage of cold front. After 18Z, more widespread IFR light snows arrive west to east for a 4-6 hour period, ending by the end of the forecast period (06Z on the 8th). Winds generally light and less than 10 kts through the period outside some brief northerly gusts to 15-25 kts behind this morning's frontal passage through 08-09Z. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do not currently have an estimated return to service for this station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...Team BTV