####018004455#### FXUS61 KPBZ 090111 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 911 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will return, mainly south of Pittsburgh, as a frontal boundary turns around and approaches as a warm front. Thereafter, unsettled weather continues, with periodic showers and storms Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - A returning frontal boundary will provide shower and thunderstorm chances late tonight, mainly south of Pittsburgh. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A frontal boundary positioned south of our region will begin to lift back north as a warm front overnight as 500mb heights begin to rise. Clouds will increase as a result, with contribution of high clouds from convection well to the south. With lift supplied by the front and a shot of isentropic lift, showers and thunderstorms will begin to fire in the southern CWA after 06Z, with chances greatest near and south of the Mason-Dixon Line. At this time, feel that the threat of severe thunderstorms overnight is low. Shear appears to be weak overall, and storms are likely to be elevated. DCAPE appears marginal for a downburst threat, but perhaps some hail could be realized from the stronger storms given elevated CAPE. Overnight low temperatures will end up some 5 to 10 degrees above normal, given the cloud increase. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers/storms return early Thursday through Friday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A sfc low approaching from the west will track along a boundary in the vicinity of the Mason- Dixon line on Thursday, followed by a shortwave on Friday. Another Marginal risk for flooding seems to be the case. This will depend on where the main axis of moisture sets up. Hi res models suggest this may be a bit further south than the Tuesday night activity and may be less impactful. NBM probs in DESI do surpass 40% for 1 inch for the area south of the Mason Dixon. Thus, any flooding issues will be dependent on training in WV or any heavier rainfall over the OH and PA areas that received heavy rainfall already. Strong height falls on Friday usher in a cooler pattern with a long wave trough position in the east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Ensembles suggest a wet pattern into the weekend. - Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- By Friday night into Saturday, another fast moving shortwave dives southeast in northwest flow bringing another round of showers to the area. Overall, a rather damp weekend is on tap. The slow moving trough will keep rain chances through Sunday as well. Temperatures through Sunday will be 5-10 degrees below the seasonal normal of about 70 this time of year. Some moderation of temperatures is likely Monday and Tuesday as heights rise and flow turns from northwest to more westerly, though there is a possibility of another trough dropping over the northeast on Tuesday keeping things a bit cooler than currently forecast. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR is expected to continue through at least 12Z before a low pressure system track through the region and restrictions showers and thunderstorms. MVFR clouds and MVFR/IFR vis from convection are expected to be in the vicinity of multiple TAF sites. Probability of thunder is expected to increase after 16Z with diurnal heating and the center of the low entering eastern Ohio. A few storms south of PIT may be severe at times. The potential for IFR to LIFR conditions increases late Friday night under moist, cool conditions with a cold front. .Outlook... Restrictions will likely continue through Friday afternoon with lingering low-level moisture and cold advection from the northeast. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CL NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/88 LONG TERM...Shallenberger AVIATION...Hefferan/88 ####018003297#### FXUS63 KDDC 090114 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 814 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Saturday. - The next opportunity for needed rainfall is expected on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Surface analysis at 8 pm showed a very dry boundary layer in place across SW KS, with dewpoints in the 20s. Light N/NE winds prevailed, in response to weak low pressure over the Texas panhandle. Earlier midlevel wave clouds have dissipated, but additional midlevel clouds will increase overnight through Thursday morning. Despite the additional clouds, the very dry air will assist radiational cooling, with all locations well down into the 40s sunrise Thursday. A mix of mid/high clouds and sunshine is expected Thursday, with a gentle northerly pressure gradient supporting less wind than Wednesday, averaging north at 10-20 mph. Models show little if any thermal changes tomorrow, so expect Thursday's temperatures to mirror those observed Wednesday, mainly in the 70s. No changes needed to the forecast or grids this evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Dry conditions are expected throughout the short term period. Mid to upper level clouds will develop across the southern half of the CWA after midnight and may stick around throughout the morning hours tomorrow. Skies then become mostly clear by tomorrow night. Winds will generally be from a northerly direction throughout the short term forecast. As for temperatures, low tonight will dip into the 40s tonight and range from the upper 60s west to upper 70s east for highs tomorrow. Lows tomorrow night will dip back into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Dry conditions continue through Saturday afternoon as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. An upper level low will spin above the four corners region during this time frame then trek closer to the area this weekend into the first part of next week. As this low gets closer, weak disturbances may swing into the area bringing a chance of precipitation to western Kansas. Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. Temperatures throughout the long term will generally be in the 70s Friday with upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday. 80s return as highs as we head into the first part of next week. Lows will start out in the 40s with some 50s across the eastern half of the CWA this weekend into the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 435 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR continuing, and variable amounts of mid and high clouds. Winds will be relatively light, generally with a northerly component. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Turner SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42 LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Turner