####018006056#### FXUS63 KARX 282020 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several Degrees Warmer Through Friday With Precipitation Chances Returning Friday Evening Into Saturday Morning - Wintry Mix Likely In Central Wisconsin Through The Overnight Hours, Freezing Rain and Sleet Potential Remains Possible In Smaller Area of Northeast Taylor County - Low, Minimal Precipitation Chances This Weekend, Increasing Early Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Synoptic Setup & Temperatures Through Friday Afternoon: An upper level trough, associated and downstream of the closed low off the Pacific Northwest Coast on GOES Water Vapor imagery this afternoon, is expected to further separate and lift through the Northern Plains through Friday, providing local precipitation chances Friday night. The closed low is completely wrapped, as GOES derived upper level winds are acting to separate the northern stream. This (northern) perturbation will combat broad upper level anticyclonic flow. As seems to be the theme, or simply a Baader-Meinhof effect, primary impacts expected to skirt north & south of the forecast area: balderdash. The strong anticyclonic flow and impending precipitation will advect a warmer airmass through Friday afternoon. While tapping into the highest temperature airmass will remain to the south, temperatures will be several degrees above today. Initial Precipitation Chances Friday Evening: Northern precipitation bears a northeastern trajectory as the enhanced subtropical jet, poking into Southern California on GOES 17 derived winds this afternoon, will shunt this synoptic forcing northward. Current confidence in long term, global ensembles (GEFS/EPS 28.12Z) places resultant upper level convergence initially. The weakening, lifting forcing will initially provide meager precipitation chances along the increased isentropic upglide and warm frontal boundary. This initial wave struggles to initially saturate farther south, placing Medford, WI with highest confidence locally for any precipitation chances. With the drier air, have held off slightly for precipitation onset compared to National Blend, delaying into the nighttime. Higher Precipitation Chances Overnight Friday Into Saturday: Irregardless, the resident more moist, warm airmass resides across the forecast area into the nighttime, fueling subsequent precipitation chances. The responsible follow-up forcing in the form of double barrel surface lows churn across the Upper Mississippi River Valley through the overnight. The northern low occludes the warm sector while the southern low forms along the accompanying triple point, following the low level baroclinic boundary. As a result, best precipitation chances slide along our northwestern and far southern peripheries into Saturday morning. Have slightly accounted for this in afternoon forecast package, using higher confidence within high resolution, short term model guidance for highest PoPs northwest, south, and east of the local forecast area. Thunder Chances: The southern stream will contain some MUCAPE and thunder firing off the nose of the low level jet. The shunting of the low level jet nose and to the south and overnight timing of best forcing locally limits confidence and coverage locally. Have continued with National Blend Probability of Thunder which dabbles Thunder chances along our southern edge primarily in Grant County, WI. Potential Wintry Mix Remaining In Taylor County: Precipitation type remains a challenge locally in northern counties of central Wisconsin. The closure of the warm sector drops surface temperatures quickly below freezing whilst moisture and warm nose lingers off the deck. In other words, discerning the mesoscale timing and location of the warmer, above freezing air as well as lowest level, below freezing cold air remains in question. High resolution soundings differentiate in timing by a couple of hours as well into early Saturday morning. Daytime high temperatures through Friday which will also be of utmost impact to freezing road potential. Have also added slight mention of Ice Pellets as negative energy of low level cold air may be enough to refreeze while upper level ice remains. However, as wee hours of Saturday morning linger on, upper upper and mid level subsidence increases confidence in removal of upper level ice and Freezing Rain potential. Therefore, have continued mention and accumulation in northeastern Taylor County into Saturday morning. This Weekend & Early Next Week Precipitation Chances: The Friday separation of streams provides some disagreement in forecast details through the weekend into next week. The initially closed low wobbles through the stages of a well-pronounced trough into the Southern Plains this weekend before eventually rejoining parent upper level flow mid next week. Therefore, increased precipitation chances return early next week as the trough rejoins the upper level flow. Highest confidence for mid level heights <540 decameters remains 50-80% along and east of the Upper Mississippi River Valley. There is also low confidence for minimal precipitation chances through the weekend as upper level heights combat troughing and ridging across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies and northwesterly winds give way to scattered high clouds and southeasterly winds tomorrow morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...KAA ####018008300#### FXUS61 KOKX 282021 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 421 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast and passes east tonight and into Friday. A series of weak waves of low pressure will track close to the area Saturday night into early next week. A deepening area of low pressure will then track across the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night, becoming nearly stationary across the Northeast for the middle of next week. The associated frontal system will impact the area during this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A secondary cold front is slowly moving through the area allowing for a focus for a plume of moisture ahead of a coastal low to advect into the area. A jet streak over the area and down stream of the approaching trough is providing for ample deep level ascent which is providing for widespread rainfall to continue into tonight. Though rain has lessened in intensity for western portions of the area, another wave of moisture will make its way into the region on the northwestern side of the approaching coastal low. This will allow rainfall to fill back in by this evening and persist through much of the first half of the night. Rain should then slowly continue to end from west to east into the early morning hours as the coastal low pushes into the Canadian Maritimes. Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 30s for much of the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The coastal low continues to progress further northeast into Southeast Canada with high pressure building in from the west into Friday. This will allow for gradually clearing skies during the day Friday. The tight pressure gradient over the area on Friday will also allow for gusty NW winds to develop, possibly upwards of 30-35 mph, especially near the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the low to middle 50s. Gusty NW flow continues Friday night as weak high pressure continues to move in from the west and the strengthening low pressure to the northeast moves into Southeast Canada. Winds will begin to relax a bit late in the night and into early Saturday. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s for inland areas with temps near 40 for the NYC metro. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A nearly zonal flow at the start of the period will allow for multiple waves of low pressure to track close enough to the area for chances of mainly light rain. The first of which will bring in a low chance for rain late Saturday afternoon and night, followed by weak high pressure on Sunday. Another wave passes to the south Sunday night into Monday, with another shot of weak warm advection rain. A cutoff low over the Great Basin then gets kicked eastward out into the Northern/Central Plains Monday, and then across the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This will be associated with a deepening surface low that sends a warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. There are differences in the globals in the timing and evolution of the energy that lifts out of the intermountain west, but there are commonalities with an overrunning rain during this time. It also looks like the area remains north of the warm front, but could come close with marginal instability and perhaps some embedded convection Tuesday night. It's too early to be too specific with the details. Digging jet energy across the Great Lakes on Wednesday leads to a closed off upper low that tracks into the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and the potential for secondary low formation in the vicinity of New England would keep clouds and low chances of precipitation into Thursday. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal over the weekend with daytime highs in the mid and upper 50s, with lows in the upper 30s inland, and in the 40s at the coast. Unsettled conditions and easterly flow to start the week will result in cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or just below normal for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due to cloud cover. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front eventually gives way to low pressure offshore moving northeast during the TAF period. Rain will linger across most of the terminals into the evening. Rain may occasionally pass by KSWF with much of it to the SE by this evening, so mainly dry conditions anticipated there. For much of the rest of the terminals, the rain will taper off late tonight from west to east. KGON will have some rainfall early Friday morning before the rain tapers off there for latter half of Friday morning. MVFR ceilings will continue through the rest of this afternoon into early evening for most terminals except for KISP and KGON where IFR will be more likely. For tonight, eventual improvement to VFR expected for all terminals except east of NYC terminals for KISP and KGON where mainly IFR will continue. KISP has improvement to MVFR late tonight and for KGON, improvement to MVFR early Friday morning. Winds will be northerly near 10 kt this afternoon. Tonight into Friday, winds will be more NW. The wind speed increases to 10-15 kt this evening, and then increases to 15-20 kt overnight into Friday. Gusts develop this evening to near 20 kt and then mainly in the 25- 30 kt range overnight into Friday. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance of IFR before 00Z. Gusts to 20 kt could develop 1-2 hours earlier than forecast. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W wind gusts near 20 kt day. Gusts diminish at night. Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening. Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers. Tuesday: Rain with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts near 20 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds increase tonight as a low pressure system approaches the area from the south. Gusts will be 25-30kt over all waters tonight and through much of the day Friday so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters. While there may be an occasional gust to 35 kt on the ocean tonight, gusts will not be widespread enough to warrant a gale warning. Strong wind gusts of up to 30 kt will be possible for all waters through Friday afternoon. Winds may increase a bit by Friday evening such that near gale force gusts will be possible on the ocean zones. A Gale Watch is in effect for 00Z Saturday through 10Z Saturday. All other waters will see SCA conditions with gusts up to 30 kt. SCA conditions will linger on the ocean waters into Saturday behind departing low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. Elsewhere, brief SCA gusts are possible in the morning. Winds and seas will gradually subside through the day with sub-SCA conditions likely by evening. The next chance for a SCA will be on Tuesday in a strengthening easterly flow. && .HYDROLOGY... Up to another inch of rainfall is possible tonight across the eastern half of the CWA. This should not provide for any hydrologic impacts. Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW/MW NEAR TERM...MW SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JM MARINE...DW/MW HYDROLOGY...DW/MW ####018002688#### FXUS65 KGGW 282022 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 222 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .DISCUSSION... Afternoon Discussion: Today through Friday: A shortwave trough will move through the area today, and finally push the stationary front over central MT eastward. Temps are attempting to creep closer to average area-wide for the rest of today. Rain showers are already developing in Petroleum, Phillips, and Garfield county, which will continue to push eastward as the evening progresses. There is high confidence (70 percent) that rain will change to mixed precipitation (including freezing rain) by 00Z north of the Hi- Line, and 06Z for the rest of the area. By 15Z, this wave should be nearly into ND. As temps drop, some areas of moderate rain may help create icy conditions by morning. Although there are probabilities south of HWY 2 for freezing rain accumulation, more accumulation is possible north of HWY 2. There is moderate to high (50 to 70 percent) confidence of ice accumulating more than 0.01" along the Hi-Line northward. Friday night through Saturday night: Another shortwave trough will glance the area from Saskatchewan. There is low to moderate (30 to 50 percent) confidence of accumulating snowfall occurring with this system. A rain/snow mix is expected south of Fort Peck Lake. Sunday onward: A warming trend is in store for northeast MT, with temps much closer to average expected by Tuesday with a positively tilted ridge building in. A drop in temps on Wednesday includes precipitation probabilities, but there is still too much uncertainty to make out details for precip accumulation. -Stoinskers && .AVIATION... Updated: 2000Z Flight Conditions: VFR through 03Z, becoming MVFR/IFR Discussion: High clouds will eventually be replaced with MVFR ceilings in rain, and then mixed precipitation after 03Z. With scattered probabilities of ice forecast, runways may become slick within the heaviest precipitation regions. Ceilings are expected to drop below 4000 ft msl by 04Z for KGGW, and 05Z for other TAF sites. There is high confidence (70 percent) ceilings will drop below 3000 ft msl by 06Z for KGGW and KOLF, and 10Z for KSDY and KGDV as a mix of freezing rain/snow fills into the area. Winds: For KSDY, KOLF, and KGDV: Southeast at 5 to 15 kts, becoming northwest at 5 to 15 kts after 06Z. For KGGW: Southeast at 5 to 15 kts, becoming northwest at 5 to 15 kts after 03Z -Stoinskers && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow ####018006313#### FXUS63 KPAH 282023 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 323 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will cause temperatures to warm well into the 70s through the weekend, possibly nearing 80 by the end of the weekend into early next week. - Fire danger remains elevated over portions of southeast Missouri today and western Kentucky Friday due to dry conditions with RH values falling below 30%. - Rain chances increase by Sunday night and continue on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will eventually move through late Monday into early Tuesday with the risk for storms. Some storms could be strong to severe, but it is too early to know if we will be under the main risk. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Weak anticyclonic flow associated with sfc high pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley is allowing for seasonable conditions with maxTs in the lower 60s. Meanwhile, GOES-16 Water Vapor imagery shows the backside of a trough aloft now lifting through the FA as rising heights and WAA will increase temps by 10 degrees on Friday. Due to extremely dry conditions and low fuels, the fire weather danger remains a bit elevated today, especially in the Ozarks where RH values are below 25%. With that said, conditions will be a bit more breezy on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens on the backside of the high pressure. BUFKIT model thermal profiles show mixing to near 850 mb where a deep dry layer will be present. For this reason, think the dewpoints will mix a bit lower into the 30s, especially across the Kentucky Pennyrile where the fire danger will be elevated with RH values falling below 30%. This also means maxTs slightly above model guidance, especially with robust diurnal heating. The weekend will start off unseasonably warm with maxTs in the mid to upper 70s as a 500 mb closed low digs into California allowing for a more amplified ridge downstream. Model guidance shows a frontal boundary will setup just north of the I-64 corridor on Saturday as the first wave of low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes region. Pcpn chances are limited to 20-30% PoPs across the north as most of the FA likely remains dry. By Sunday, the aformentioned boundary tries to sag more south as southerly winds allow for an influx of theta-e. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s translates to about 300-600 J/kg of 0-1 km MLCAPE, but CIN around 850 mb likely inhibits much in the way of convection with NBM PoPs only progged around 30% across the north. It will certainly be quite warm with maxTs nearing 80 degrees! As subtle impluses round the base of the ridge axis, the first period when the chance of seeing convection may be more favorable is late Sunday night into Monday morning. The 12z GFS is the most robust in supporting elevated convection riding along the frontal boundary while the CMC/ECMWF keep the boundary more north. Steep 700- 500 mb lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 C/km, 0-6km bulk shear of 40 kts, and a low WBZ around 700 mb would support some hail potential. This will certainly be something to watch for as it is not uncommon to see an initial elevated storm risk along CAPE gradients in these warm sector regimes. Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a 500 mb shortwave ahead of a more broad positively tilted longwave trough will eject leeward of the Rockies across the central Plains as sfc low pressure moves northeast towards Iowa/Illinois. This is when the synoptic flow at 250 mb becomes more divergent in the left exit region of a 120+ kt jet over the southern Plains. NBM PoPs really ramp up Monday evening into Monday night as a cold front approaches. There will certainly be sufficient moisture with dewpoints around 63-65 degrees. As for the severe weather potential, while the setup is favorable, there is also quite a bit of uncertainty. The GFS supports a nocturnal severe minimum across portions of the FA that the SPC references in their D5/D6 discussion. One reason for this is how far NW the low is with the better instability/forcing. However, the ECMWF/CMC are much slower with fropa and show convection late Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the better instability more south. Despite the uncertainty, one thing that is a bit concerning is the amount of deep layer shear with sfc-6 km in the 50-60 kt range. Model soundings do show hodographs that become more elongated with curvature Monday night as sfc winds become more backed. Combined with mid-level cooling that results in steepening lapse-rates and MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, the parameters are certainly favorable for severe weather potential. Until we can get a better on the evolution of the low, shortwave, and jet placement, it is too early to know if the PAH CWA will be in bullseye. There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as PWATs rise above the 90th percentile between 1.25-1.50 inches with the NAEFS showing the Integrated WV Transport rising above 750 kgm-1/s-1. If the front slows down, some training would certainly be a concern as the mid- level winds become more parallel to the front. Behind the cold front, a colder/dry airmass settles over the FA for the middle of the week as another trough ejects over the Ohio Valley. Models show 850 mb temps falling below freezing again Tuesday night, with temps near to slightly below normal for this time of year on Wednesday before quickly rebounding on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions prevail as sfc high pressures remains in control across the south. Mainly clear skies give way to scattered high-level clouds early Friday morning. SW winds between 5-10 kts turn light & variable tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Friday will be a bit more breezy due to better mixing. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW ####018004609#### FXUS63 KGLD 282023 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 223 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Colorado this afternoon. - Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions generally south of a line from Flagler, Colorado to Leoti, Kansas Sunday afternoon. - 20%-50% chances for rain showers Sunday night and Monday with a return to below normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Today-tonight...cirrus clouds are anticipated to move across the area from the west as short wave ridging moves over the area. Presently, high temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to lower 70s which is represented by the amount of warming at 850mb compared to yesterday and a blend of the better performing bias corrected temperature grids. If the cirrus is thicker than currently anticipated, high temperatures would need to be lowered. Additionally, the current breezy wind forecast (winds from the south) could be impacted as thicker cirrus could limit mixing and thus lower the wind speed forecast. This could be offset by modest 3 hour pressure falls. Tonight, Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 30s. Friday-Friday night...a cold front moves through the area, lowering high temperatures into the lower 60s to lower 70s (coolest in Yuma, warmest in Tribune/Leoti). Breezy north winds are possible, mainly along and north of I-70. Low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. There will also be a 20%-30% chance for light rain showers up to around midnight, mainly across Yuma and Kit Carson counties. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 As we begin the start of a new work week, be prepared for some wet conditions across the Tri-State areas as an area of low pressure moves east across Kansas on Monday. As the surface low moves east, the wrap around moisture will move over the forecast area bringing rain chances up to 35% through the afternoon before tapering off Monday evening. There is still disagreement on the timing of the system between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS moving the slowest. This keeps the forecast on the lower side of the confidence spectrum. So far, the area is expected to see mainly rain with a few slight chances (low confidence) for thunderstorms in the southeast corner of the area similar to a few days ago. Monday evening we could see a transition to a rain/snow mix for a large portion of the area as temperatures approach freezing. Stay tuned for more details as CAM guidance begins to cover the system and provide more insight. Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees. The upper trough axis is expected to be pushed south-southeast overnight Monday into Tuesday by a area of high pressure off the SW California coast. The ridge is expected to continue moving east over the Plains through the middle of the week, keeping the Tri-State area dry. A lee surface trough may develop along the Front Range on Thursday possibly creating some elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over the Colorado Plains. Temperatures will be on a warming trend next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday, the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, and into the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Thursday night we are currently expecting overnight lows to be in the 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 955 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast period with a mix of scattered to broken high clouds. Winds for KGLD, south-southwest around 10kts through 11z Friday, then becoming westerly. Some gusts to 20kts possible from 20z Thu-01z Fri. From 15z Friday onward, northwest 10-20kts. LLWS 07z-11z Friday 250@40kts. Winds for KMCK, southwest 5-10kts through 20z, then south- southeast 10-20kts. By 07z Friday, becoming light/variable. By 12z, northwest 10-20kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...JN ####018003562#### FXUS65 KPIH 282024 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 224 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday After an active morning with rain, snow, thunderstorms and even some thundersnow, things are beginning to settle down across the region. Afternoon satellite continues to show some dense cloud cover across the far eastern highlands where high-elevation snow continues to fall. Still seeing some poor grip levels on area roadways and some additional light accumulations will remain possible for a few more hours. As such, will leave the Winter Weather Advisory untouched. Elsewhere, things remain relatively quiet although a few isolated rain/snow showers will be possible into the late evening. Things should be relatively quiet overnight but as we get into Friday afternoon, we can expect a few high elevation snow showers tomorrow across the central mountains and along the Utah border. These should be pretty low impact, however. The next bigger push of moisture looks to move into the region overnight Friday and into Saturday AM. Afternoon high temperatures tomorrow should climb into the mid to upper 40s in the lower elevations with upper 30s to mid 40s in the high country. McKaughan .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. We will see an active start to the extended period as a closed upper low rotates southward along the west coast and southerly flow aloft lifts moisture into SE Idaho on Saturday. Come Sunday, the low will split and a secondary closed low will rotate northward and shift directly over SE Idaho on Sunday, making this the wetter of the two days. The exact track of the low will directly impact precipitation totals across the CWA and while deterministic show some slight differences regarding its track, they continue to show the center of the low tracking over the E/SE Highlands with the central mountains remaining much drier. EPS and GEFS are beginning to show a bit more spread in precipitable water though for this time period. Regarding 24-hour QPF, ensembles indicate accumulations as high as 0.15 to 0.20 on Saturday across the SE Highlands and totals on the order of 0.40 to 0.55 on Sunday. Snow levels will widely remain between 5 and 6 thousand feet elevation during the weekend, meaning rain for our valleys outside of rain/snow mix during the overnight and early morning hours when temperatures could potentially cool enough to support some frozen precipitation. A ridge of high pressure will build in again from the west on Monday. Daytime highs will increase by 5 to 10 degrees between Monday and Tuesday and then remain fairly consistent for Wednesday under zonal flow. The Snake Plain and Magic Valley will warm into the low 60s with 40s and 50s in the mountains. Conditions will remain dry through the first half of next week before the next shortwave works through mid to late week. Cropp && .AVIATION... Wind speeds will drop off quite rapidly this afternoon with gusts around 15 kts or less areawide by early evening. MVFR CIGs will turn VFR as CIGs rise and clouds scatter in the wake of the cold front that worked through earlier today. A transient ridge will keep conditions mostly dry Friday before the next wave arrives Friday night. Cropp && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ060- 066. && $$ ####018004631#### FXUS63 KLSX 282024 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 324 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures through the weekend into Monday. Highs nearing 80 on Sunday Along and south of the Missouri River Valley. - Sunday: A warm front across the region will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm chances. - Monday: Shower and thunderstorm chances will be greatest (50 to 80%). There is a slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday Afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Through 19Z, the surface ridge continues to slide south-southeast of the region, with modest southwesterly flow persisting across the area. Temperatures have risen steadily into the lower 60s early this afternoon, while some scattered clouds continue to stream across northeastern Missouri. Through the evening, mid-level ridging from the west, well defined on WV imagery, will slide eastward, with the shallow ridge axis setting up through Friday morning from the ArkLaTex to the northern Mississippi Valley. Boundary layer return flow will increase, with surface winds becoming breezy through the afternoon off the Ozark Plateau and across the area. Temperatures will respond accordingly, with highs pushing the mid 70s for highs to close out the work week. Late Friday night, a weak surface front will advance eastward across Missouri, supported by a weak H500 short wave. Short-range solutions have hinted at some lower PoPs with a 100 to 300 J/Kg SBCAPE, but forecast soundings suggest a decent capping inversion, so any development, if it can fire, looks to be isolated. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Through Saturday into Sunday, ridging remains in place, with ample WAA and return flow into the lower Missouri to Mid-Mississippi Valley. Through midday, Sunday, a warm front is still expected to slow and stall across northern Missouri, near the MO/IA border. This will be focus for showers and thunderstorms through the day, with a ribbon of 500 J/Kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings suggest a sizable EML existing through late afternoon across much of the area, which would restrict development, but anything on or near the boundary could easily make use of the stout deep layer shear and result in a few robust updrafts. A few elevated severe hailers cannot be ruled out through the afternoon into the evening. Into Monday, a strong western trough will emerge across the Rockies onto the western High Plains. With the region well within the warm sector, broad isentropic ascent ahead of the amplified trough will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development Monday morning through midday. Into the afternoon, agree with the SPC 15% (slight risk), across the region. If some recovery can persist within the warm sector, with the lift of the surface trough across northwestern Missouri into Iowa, the combo of modest instability and favorable wind profiles for organized convection, there is a window for severe convection through the late afternoon and evening. Looking at forecast soundings, skinny CAPE profiles are not overly encouraging for large hail, but supportive enough, especially when combined with veering profiles, for at least half dollars to golf balls with the strongest updrafts. Beyond Monday, expect cooler temperatures Tuesday, post cold front, with breezy northwest flow. This trend will persist through Wednesday before ridging develops and builds in by late week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period for all sites. Southwesterly winds will continue, some elevated across central and northeastern Missouri and west central Illinois, through the afternoon. Overnight, expect winds to shift more southerly, persisting through tomorrow, midday. SCT high clouds will stream across area terminals this afternoon, with increasing coverage to BKN overnight. For KSTL, winds will increase after 18Z tomorrow, remaining gusty, 20 to 25kts through 30/00Z. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...WFO EAX/Kurtz LONG TERM...WFO EAX/Kurtz AVIATION...WFO EAX/Kurtz ####018004445#### FXUS65 KBOI 282024 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 224 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...A trough remains off the WA coast this afternoon with west-southwest flow over southeast OR and southwest ID. Cold air aloft associated with the upper level trough remains over the area this afternoon with 500mb temperatures near -30C. This combined sunny breaks and the late March sun angle has destabilized the atmosphere, aiding in shower and thunderstorm development. Some showers may produce brief heavy rain, small hail, graupel and gusty winds up to 40 mph this afternoon and evening. The trough off the Pacific NW coast will move south along the OR coast on Friday morning and reach the northern CA coast by Friday afternoon. This will shift the upper level flow aloft to the south, bringing in slightly warmer air aloft on Friday afternoon. Still enough cold air aloft for scattered showers, mainly over the mountains on Friday and Saturday afternoons. The trough moves inland on Saturday into the Great Basin across NV/UT, bringing the highest chance of precipitation south along the NV border. Still some uncertainty on the placement of the trough, and if it is 50-150 miles farther north, could be a significant precipitation event, especially for southwest ID on Saturday night into Sunday. The differences in snow amount ranges in the ensembles over the southern ID mountains are 5-10" Saturday and Sunday, meaning if the storm tracks north of the current forecast, snow amounts will be 5-10 inches higher than the current forecast, with 0.5 to 1.00 inch higher precipitation. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Lingering moisture with the upper level trough will keep a slight chance of precipitation (10- 30%) on Sunday, but will be almost entirely east of a line from KBOI- KMYL. The ID-NV border also sees the same chance of precipitation. If the trough moves even a small amount further east than forecast, chances for precipitation in our area will drop significantly. Snow levels 4000-5000 ft MSL, with heavier snow mostly confined to higher terrain along the ID-NV border, otherwise scattered rain and snow showers are expected. Strong gusts are likely Sunday afternoon, as the western and central portions of our CWA will be under clear skies and a stronger surface pressure gradient sets up west of a surface low. Gusts in an area that roughly extends from Baker City down to Mtn Home will be in the 30-40 mph range, with a few isolated instances of 45 mph. By Monday morning, there is great model consensus in carrying the trough out of our area and a high pressure ridge setting in. This will kick off a warming trend and clear skies through at least Wednesday evening. There is a low chance (<10%) of an 80F high temperature on Tuesday or Wednesday. The best chances for those very warm temps exist on Wednesday, but only in models that delay the arrival of our next system. Models are trending towards an earlier arrival of another trough Wednesday night/Thursday morning. If they continue to bring it in earlier, winds on Wednesday could be gusty and temps may not warm up as much. Snow levels drop from 7000-8000 ft MSL ahead of the system to about 4000-5000 ft MSL behind the system. && .AVIATION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting most of the area this afternoon/evening. Graupel and pea-size hail possible in most storms. While storm and shower activity will decrease after sunset, there may be lingering activity until midnight. Snow levels 4000-5000 ft MSL. Mountains obscured. Surface winds: W-S 10-20 kt, gusts 20-30 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: WSW 15-25kt. Weekend Outlook...MVFR/local IFR in isolated showers through the weekend, mainly over the Central ID Mountains and near the Nevada border/Magic Valley. Snow levels will be around 4500-5500 ft MSL. Surface winds will be NE-NW 5-15 kt, with breezy afternoon winds NW 10-20kt with gusts to 30 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM