####018007584#### FXUS63 KFGF 100346 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 946 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very difficult travel conditions today into tonight due to snow and ice covered roads, reduced visibility from heavy snow rates and blowing snow, as well as gusty winds. Lingering impacts from snow showers and blowing snow are expected tonight into early Wednesday. - High winds are expected over the next 1-3 hours in southeast North Dakota. Wind gusts over 50 mph are expected. - Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 80 percent chance for wind chills to drop to -30 or colder. && .UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Snow continues to push southward this evening. For the most part, heavier snowfall rates have ended in the northern half of the region, so the Winter Storm Warning there has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. Further south, high winds are approaching southeast North Dakota. Wind gusts as high as 67 mph have been observed to the west. Based on where cold air advection is strongest, the expectation is for the strongest winds to be just south of our region, however 50-65+ mph gusts are expected along the ND/SD state border. Conditions should slowly begin to improve after midnight for the most part as the heaviest impacts continue to move away from the region. Hazardous travel conditions will at least linger into tomorrow morning as snow showers will be ongoing through the night into tomorrow. UPDATE Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A heavy snow band is working its way through Grand Forks to Crookston right now and is dropping visibilities to between 1/4SM to 3/4SM. An additional few inches are expected over the next several hours across the heaviest snowfall bands. Further south, a transition from freezing rain to snow is ongoing, particularly at FAR where freezing rain changed over to snow at the observation station. The heaviest snowfall rates should start to diminish around midnight, but horizontal convective rolls are still expected to develop but we don't know how widespread they will be. As a result, no headline changes on this update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...Synopsis... After the passing of the current stronger clipper, the large scale pattern continues to be dominated by northwest flow with an additional (weaker) clipper passing through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This brings medium chances for light snow and lower probabilities for minor (advisory) impacts as probabilities for 3"+ snowfall are less than 20%. Falling heights/deepening mid/upper lows in Canada towards Hudson Bay will bring a series of arctic fronts through the region during the second half of the week into the weekend along with the coldest air of the season so far. ...Winter Storm Impacts Ongoing... The current strong clipper continues to bring impacts resulting in difficult travel across our CWA. The mid level wave is centered over our CWA, with the surface low over SE ND/NE SD while places the stronger gradient and speed max to our west and south through this evening. This has also resulted in much lower winds than previously forecast across our north, with the best potential for higher gusts closer to the SD state line this evening. Max Tw aloft is below freezing where most precipitation is occuring, though far southeast ND is still warmer with a rain/snow mix and a narrow corridor where freezing rain may still be lingering (southwest of Cass County). The most organized area of snow and embedded heavy snow banding is extending from northeast ND into northwest and towards west central MN currently, with decreasing trends to the west of this. Heavier rates within this area are ranging from 0.5 to 1.5"/hr based on radar estimates. As the mid level wave continues southeast the stronger forcing will exit the region resulting in decreasing intensity of lingering snow. The general progression favors this more organized area of snow weakening through the rest of the afternoon and early evening, however CAA and speed shear aloft in the mixed layer will keep lingering snow showers over the region. Wind impacts and the threat for widespread blowing snow/whiteout is greatly diminished due to the current track for much of our area, however, visibility reductions are still anticipated just where snow showers track and rates still potentially approach 0.5/hr. The coverage of which may continue to decrease after midnight becoming less and less of a concern as winds continue to decrease through Wednesday morning. Weather related impacts thus may linger, though the impact/risk may eventually be more in line with advisory (minor) or sub advisory categories overnight into the morning hours Wednesday. We'll monitor and adjust products accordingly dependent on coverage. ...High winds/slick travel impacts... Where higher winds actually occur in the far southeast (towards the SD border) there is a risk for increased travel impacts especially where roads are already slick as higher profile/light weight vehicles may be prone to jostling on the slick roads. This is something to keep in mind if you are traveling this afternoon through this evening when winds begin to increase. ...Arctic air and cold/wind chills impacts... Late this week arctic air begins to arrive and the cold air mass over the weekend will support lows in the negative teens and 20s, and there is a strong signal for at least advisory (-30) wind chills. Depending on wind speeds warning criteria (-40) may be met with increasing chances particularly north of Highway 2. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Snowfall will continue to impact visibilities over the next several hours to as low as 1/4SM at times, particularly at GFK. Snowfall rates should diminish as we progress closer to 06z, although snowfall will continue through the overnight hours and allow for periodic IFR visibility reductions. Regardless of snow, ceilings will remain MVFR to IFR through the majority of the TAF period. Winds will start to increase this evening from the northwest for all TAF sites, with the strongest winds expected to remain south of FAR. Blowing snow may accompany this increase in winds, especially at GFK/TVF where snowfall was the heaviest and temperatures remained below freezing. Expect aviation conditions to slowly improve after 18z as ceilings rise slowly with diminishing precipitation. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007- 008-015-016-026-027-029-030-054. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006- 014-024-028-038-039-049-052-053. High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ038-049-052- 053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001>004-007-008-013>015. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005- 006-009-029-030-040. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ016-017- 022>024-027-028-031-032. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Perroux