####018006980#### FXUS63 KGLD 050925 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 325 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monday will see a chance for severe thunderstorms east of Highway 25 in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska from the late morning to mid afternoon hours. - Also on Monday, for areas west of Highway 25 near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be likely during the afternoon due to low humidity and gusty west winds. Some patchy blowing dust will also be possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure in control today with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Tonight, return flow around the high begins with increasing southeasterly winds. Stratus will develop by 12z in the Kansas and Colorado border area, with perhaps some patchy fog, expanding across much of the area through the morning. HRRR suggests the low clouds will be slow to erode through Sunday afternoon in central and eastern portions of the area, potentially impacting temperatures. Hard to find much support for lower temperatures in guidance, so will only tweak temperatures down a few degrees in eastern areas. It will also be windy with south to southeast winds gusting over 40 mph in western areas by the afternoon as a trough deepens in eastern Colorado. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s and highs on Sunday in the 60s in the aforementioned cooler areas to the lower 70s in western areas with some afternoon sun. Sunday night will see those winds continue to increase. Models may be over mixing, particularly the GFS, but still going to be breezy to windy south winds through the night. Upper trough axis will be in central Colorado by early Monday morning. May see scattered showers begin to develop overnight Sunday with an isolated thunderstorm or two with favorable MUCAPE. As upper trough lifts into the Nebraska panhandle Monday morning westerly winds will overspread the area aloft and at the surface. Dry line will race eastward in the morning and by 18z probably be all the way to Highway 83. There is a short window, between about 16z and 20z, when the dry line may still be in the area and thunderstorms may initiate. Forecast soundings from the NAMnest, which initiates storms on the dry line in the eastern six counties, shows around 1500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 60 kts of 0-6km shear, which should be sufficient for a severe risk of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Meanwhile, west of the dry line it will be dry and windy with a risk for critical fire weather conditions. Lowest humidity will be south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25 with high probabilities for relative humidity of 15% or lower and for wind gusts of 25 mph or higher. However, models not in the best of agreement on potential for meeting high wind warning criteria. NBM probabilities for gusts of 55 mph or greater are generally confined to Colorado during the morning at 20-30 percent, decreasing in the afternoon. Finally, low level lapse rates west of the dry line are favorable for blowing dust, but wind gusts a bit lacking, and recent rainfall may negate some of the potential as well. Precipitation should be done for the area by Monday afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 70s and lows Monday night ranging from the upper 30s in Colorado to the lower 40s in eastern areas. On Tuesday, the upper low will be in the northern plains with zonal flow across the central plains. It will be breezy to windy and dry. Critical fire weather conditions may be met once again, but potentially more widespread compared to Monday with just about the entire area dropping into the teens for humidity in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 70s and lows Tuesday night ranging from the middle 30s in Colorado to the lower 40s in eastern areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Most of next week's weather will be influenced by a large upper low moving over the Northwest CONUS while the trough extends south towards the Mexico border. This low is expected to linger over the Great Plains and Rockies through Friday. Given the pattern and the potential for shortwave disturbances to also move over the Tri-State area, there is a chance (up to 30%) of showers and thunderstorms over various portions of the area. Wednesday currently has the least amount of confidence for any precipitation due to a lack of moisture and a surface high lingering over the Rockies. Severe weather is not anticipated during the period as instability is limited in the long range guidance. There is concern for critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday along and south of a Logan County to Cheyenne County, Colorado line. RH values are forecast to fall into the low to mid teens with WSW to westerly winds gusting up to 45-50 mph. Locales north of the area of concern are expected to remain in the upper teens for RH with gusts up to 45 mph. Wednesday has the potential for near critical to critical fire weather conditions with RH values in the mid to upper teens along and south of a Yuma to Oakley line. Northwest winds are forecast to gust up to 35 mph. Overlapping conditions are a limiting factor for the southwest corner being able to reach Red Flag criteria as winds decrease during the late afternoon. Late Friday into Saturday the upper low finally begins to move over the Eastern CONUS. Shortwave ridging is expected to move over the Tri-State area ahead of another upper low that should move across the Great Basin. Some showers and non-severe storms remain possible in the afternoon primarily over Colorado with up to 20% confidence. Temperatures during the long term are expected to be mainly in the 60s to 70s each day, except for Friday which is forecast to be in the 60s across the area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s each night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 For KGLD, conditions start as VFR through about 08z Sunday, then transition to MVFR with 5-6sm in fog and ceilings around BKN015-025. VFR do not return until 03z Monday onward. Winds, southeast 10-15kts, increasing to around 25-35kts from 17z Sunday onward. For KMCK, VFR conditions through much of the forecast period, with MVFR ceilings(BKN015-020) working into the area by 00z Monday. Winds, southeast 10-15kts through 17z Sunday, then increasing to around 20-30kts. LLWS 00z-06z Monday 160@45kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...JN ####018006162#### FXUS63 KMKX 050928 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 428 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog possible this morning in the Wisconsin River Valley. - Quiet and dry weather expected for Sunday into early next week. - Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle portions of next week. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for severe weather. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 318 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Today through Monday: Some fog remains possible this morning in patchy spots owing the wetting rains from yesterday evening, building subsidence, and light winds. The Wisconsin River Valley will be the most favored region for fog development. Otherwise today, high pressure will continue to shift east and settle over the Upper Great Lakes by tonight. Clear skies and full solar insolation should lead to a well mixed boundary layer and fairly low dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will be light out of the north, becoming more light and variable this afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 60s to near 70, generally west of Waukesha, Washington, Racine, and Kenosha counties, as the weak pressure gradient will allow a lake breeze to start fairly early in the afternoon and push inland, keeping highs in the mid 60s closer to the lakeshore. Temperatures will cool into the 40s tonight under mostly clear skies and continuing subsidence. Another round of fog in the Wisconsin River Valley may occur. Monday will be another beautiful day, with slightly warmer daytime highs inland in the low to mid 70s as ridging aloft amplifies. Prevailing winds will be off of the lake from the east as high pressure moves toward Lake Huron, keeping conditions cooler again in lakeshore counties and their westward neighbors. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 428 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Monday night through Saturday: WAA and an occluded front are expected to approach Wisconsin Monday night as a low deepens over Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread southwest to northeast into the state early Tuesday morning into the post dawn hours. There are two camps of solutions for Tuesday and Wednesday as the NAM and 00z ECMWF favor precipitation coming through as a solid line along the occluded front through the daytime hours on Tuesday, while the GFS favors a dying line in the morning with more redevelopment in the afternoon. This in turn then influences the storm potential on Wednesday. If the ECMWF/NAM solution verifies, much of Tuesday afternoon could be dry following the passage of the occluded front and its precipitation by the early afternoon. Without a blow- up of precipitation Tuesday afternoon, favorable dew points may be pushed into central IL, then return north on Wednesday behind a warm front as a surface low deepens over the middle Mississippi Valley. EPS ensembles show a strong wave aloft and more favorable flow on Wednesay, and the ECMWF shows convection blowing up along the warm front just south of the WI/IL border Wednesday afternoon. The GFS has the precipitation lifting north Tuesday morning/afternoon with redevelopment during the mid to late afternoon over southern WI. Shear looks like it would be marginal, but the GFS supports steep mid level lapse rates, hinting toward a severe hail threat, provided a storm establishes itself. This convection Tuesday afternoon would then give a reinforcing push to dew points southward down to the Ohio River Valley. The GFS then also forms a low Wednesday, but the warm front only rises as far north as central Illinois, and Wednesday storm chances stay well south. With all of these confounding factors, it remains too early to put a definitive label on the storm threat for Tuesday and Wednesday, but trends will be monitored for better confidence with each successive model run. A weak sfc trough may then linger for Thursday providing additional rain chances. Beyond, slight chances for rain linger into the weekend as a weak upper trough passes over the Upper Great Lakes. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 326 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Before dawn some patchy ground fog may form with fog more favored to form in the Wisconsin River Valley. Otherwise, light northerly winds are anticpated today, with winds becoming light and easterly over the area as a lake breeze works inland. This lake breeze circulation is anticipated to work inland starting at 17z and making it as far inland as KMSN by 00z. Winds should then become light and variable overnight. Barring areas of patchy fog, VFR conditions are expected today into Monday with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies anticipated. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 324 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 High pressure will spread into the Upper Great Lakes Region and linger through Monday. This high pressure will bring light northerlies to the lake this morning, with winds growing light and variable over the lake this afternoon into tonight. Monday, winds look to become easterly at times, but lack of a strong pressure gradient over the area will mean that the east winds will be interspersed with boughts of light and variable conditions. Monday night, winds will grow southeasterly and breezy to 20 knots over the southern half of Lake Michigan by Tuesday morning. Winds then come around to westerly after a front lifts north over the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. A brief period of Small Craft Advisory criteria waves may occur Tuesday morning. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018007203#### FXUS64 KEPZ 050928 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 328 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Warm and breezy to windy conditions are expected through the upcoming week, resulting in higher fire danger. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 A shallow surge of moisture has made it to El Paso early this morning from the east associated with a backdoor cold front. Dew points have spiked into the low 50s east of the mountain chain from the metro area up to White Sands with the moisture slowed down by the natural barriers. This moisture surge will be short- lived, getting flushed out of the CWA during the day by deep SW flow ahead of a deep upper low over the Great Basin. Very dry conditions and breezy winds are expected this afternoon, especially further west closer to the base of the trough. Dust models are not excited about blowing dust potential later today since the main dust sources in northern Chihuahua are underneath relatively light winds compared to areas out west. The Lordsburg Playa is most likely to see visibility reductions. More modest breezes are forecast for far west TX today. The Pacific front rolls through tonight, cooling temperatures slightly for Monday. Winds will be breezy to windy across the region under the base of a longwave trough and with a moderate surface pressure gradient. Generally 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph are expected on Monday, shifting westerly behind the Pacific front. Tuesday looks quite similar with strong zonal flow overhead and temps a touch warmer. Another breezy day is expected for Wednesday as the upper low meanders into the Northern Plains from the Rockies. A chunk of the main low then retrogrades into the Great Basin based on the GEFS mean courtesy of a Rex block over SW Canada. As it does so, a backdoor front rides down the high plains and provides our area with an uptick in moisture for Friday. We'll see if anything comes of this next potential moisture surge in terms of convection, or if it will be similar to what we see today. Model guidance is uncertain regarding how the disturbance to our north acts into next weekend. Winds subside somewhat later in the week as temperatures remain above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 VMC through forecast period under strengthening southwest flow aloft. Skies mainly SKC-FEW250. Surface winds SSE 120-180 overnight east of the Rio Grande where a moisture boundary exists, remaining SW 220-260 AOB 08 knots across southwest New Mexico. Winds increasing again Sunday afternoon, especially across western New Mexico. 210-240 at 10 to 20 knots with the gusts to 30 knots likely at KTCS mid afternoon. Low confidence in blowing dust impacts, but worth monitoring midday tomorrow for any visibility reductions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. Fire weather concerns will be moderate to high for the first half of the week. For today, winds will be breezy from the southwest, especially in northwestern areas, ahead of an upper low along with very dry conditions. Combined, these factors result in RFTIs of 4-7 (near critical to extreme) for FWZs 110, 111, and 112. FWZ 113 will have somewhat lighter winds today, so more of a borderline Red Flag day there. Far west TX will see comparatively lighter winds this afternoon. More widespread breezy to windy conditions are expected for Monday as winds shift westerly behind the Pacific front and humidities rise slightly. RFTIs are forecast to be 3-6 on Monday (near critical to critical). The fire weather watches have been upgraded to RFWs for Monday across the area. Tuesday is looking like the highest fire danger day of this stretch (RFTI 5-8) with lower RHs than Monday and low-end windy conditions again. Watches will be posted within the next 24 hours for Tuesday as confidence is high in a red flag day. RFTIs fall to mostly 3 on Wednesday, so more of an SPS day it seems. For the rest of the week, winds stay on the breezy side as moisture levels creep up, lowering the threat of fire weather. ERCs will continue to rise as temperatures remain above normal and dry westerly winds persist. Min RHs range from 5-12%. Vent rates will be excellent through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 90 61 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 85 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 90 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 85 54 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 63 42 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 85 53 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 77 45 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 88 51 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 86 49 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 89 52 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 92 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 81 54 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 90 56 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 86 52 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 60 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 52 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 88 54 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 85 54 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 76 49 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 74 47 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 72 43 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 78 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 83 49 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 85 50 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 42 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 82 44 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 84 47 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 44 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 47 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 85 49 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 86 50 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 85 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 46 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson