####018006318#### FXUS63 KDLH 220940 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 440 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this morning into the mid-afternoon for portions of the MN Arrowhead and northwest WI. - A Clipper System will bring scattered to widespread rain showers today into tomorrow with isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible. Snow is likely to mix in with the rain on Tuesday for portions of the area as cold air filters in. - A Colorado Low is likely to bring widespread rain to the Upper Midwest later this week into this upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Cloud cover will be increasing through the morning today as an Alberta Clipper propagates towards the area. Ahead of this clipper, conditions will be dry this morning into the early afternoon. Model soundings from the CAMs show a deep mixing layer developing despite the increasing mid to high-level cloud cover. This deep mixing layer extending in excess of 7,000ft AGL is expected to drop min RH as low as 25% today, especially in the northern portion of the Arrowhead and in north-central WI. When combining this dry air with breezy southwest winds, near-critical fire weather conditions are expected today in northern St. Louis, Lake, and Cook Counties and portions of northwest WI. One unusual difference with today is that peak drying will not be following typical diurnal patterns. Instead of peak drying occurring in the late afternoon, minimum RH is anticipated to occur around midday due to the arrival of rain this afternoon. As low pressure continues eastward towards the CWA, a line of scattered to widespread showers are expected to arrive this afternoon as a band of enhanced negative omega and FGEN move in ahead of a weak cold front. Expect some virga to initially occur due to the abundant amount of low-level dry air. Showers will progress eastward across the CWA through the afternoon and evening. While a rumble or two of thunder is possible today, thunderstorms are unlikely due to weak MUCAPE of 100 J/kg or less. Expect a brief break from rain showers this evening into tonight as a dry slot moves through ahead of the low pressure center. An additional round of showers is forecast to occur on Tuesday as the Clipper propagates through the CWA. While much of this second round of precip will fall as rain, snow will likely mix in over the Arrowhead and much of northwest WI due to CAA on Tuesday. Snow accumulations are expected to range from nothing up to 0.2" at most in far northeastern MN and in northern Iron County by Tuesday evening. Also of note on Tuesday will be the potential for isolated non-severe thunderstorms. These isolated thunderstorms will be most likely in east-central MN and northwest WI where instability will be highest (MUCAPE up to 100-200 J/kg). Quiet weather is expected on Tuesday night through Thursday after the clipper moves downstream of the CWA. Dry conditions are likely on Wednesday as high pressure builds over northern Ontario. This may lead to another day of near-critical fire weather conditions. Looking ahead, a deep trough is likely to bring a strong Colorado Low to the Upper Midwest during the latter half of the workweek into Saturday. This late week system will have the potential to bring decent amounts of rainfall as it taps into strong moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Early indications from the NBM show that QPF amounts in excess of 1" will be possible (40-60% chance) across a large portion of the CWA between Friday and Saturday evening. Global deterministic models are also showing that thunderstorms will be likely as a tongue of elevated CAPE extends into the CWA. This late week system will be one to monitor over the next few days as models continue to converge on a solution and confidence in specific impacts increases. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. An area of low pressure will be moving towards the region today from Canada, arriving into far north-central Minnesota by this evening. Southwest winds preceding this low pressure are expected to be breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Scattered showers will begin this afternoon, likely falling initially as virga in the Arrowhead. There is a 10-15% chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening for all TAF sites except BRD. Given the low confidence, thunder was not included in this update. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 440 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Southwest winds are expected to increase this morning to speeds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots along the South Shore and from Duluth to Two Harbors. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for today, covering the entire South Shore and the zone from Duluth to Two Harbors due to these elevated winds. A clipper moving through this afternoon into Tuesday will bring light rain showers then a rain/snow mix as cold air is advected over the lake. On the back side of the system, winds will shift to the northeast and increase starting Tuesday morning. Winds above 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots will very likely necessitate another round of Small Craft Advisories on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A Gale Warning may also be needed in the outer Apostle Islands and from Grand Marais to Grand Portage on Tuesday as gusts approach 35 knots. Confidence in gale-force wind gusts on Tuesday is around a 40% chance in the aforementioned waters on Tuesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-144>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Unruh AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...Unruh ####018004726#### FXUS65 KLKN 220940 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 240 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Afternoon breezes today along with low probability for virga, light sprinkles, and a lightning strike or two in and near White Pine County, mostly relegated to the higher terrain. Active weather increases and becomes more widespread Tuesday and Wednesday, persisting thru the weekend with higher probabilities for rainfall and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night Westerly flow turns southwesterly today ahead of an approaching Pacific low as it continues to move southeast toward SoCal. This helps to move modest mid-level moisture into central Nevada. Subsequently combining with limited instability along a weak boundary, will produce a low probability for virga, light sprinkles, and a lightning strike or two in and near White Pine County. Activity will be mostly relegated to the higher terrain during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will be present with afternoon breezes gusting to 25 mph. Quiet weather tonight as winds trend light to calm. Similar set up and weather conditions Tuesday but with better instability and the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will expand northward to the Idaho state line. Continued southwesterly flow further increases mid-level moisture and PWATs are progged to reside in the 0.50" to 0.60" range. However, any valley accumulations likely remain less than 0.10" and the main concerns will be occasional lightning strikes and gusty thunderstorm outflow winds. Daytime high temperatures today reside in the upper 60s to upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Daytime highs Tuesday reside in the mid 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows again in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday An active weather pattern is on track midweek as a trough approaches the U.S. West Coast. By Wednesday, additional Pacific moisture will allow for more widespread showers and thunderstorms along an axis from around northwestern Nye county into much of northern and northeastern Nevada. With additional cloud cover and moisture, afternoon highs expected to reach into the 60s with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The larger scale troughing pattern across the western U.S. will continue for late next week, bringing more widespread rain and mountain snow to the area. Timing and areal coverage of precipitation is expected to change, but ensemble guidance suggests a busy pattern to continue into next weekend. Temperatures cool down with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, with breezy conditions each afternoon. Quiet and dry conditions for Sunday and Monday as the main trough axis exits the region. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. KELY will see cumulus cloud build-ups this afternoon, with a 10-15% chance of TS, otherwise dry at all terminals today. && .HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and central Nevada continue to observe elevated flows. Mostly dry conditions continue thru today with temperatures remaining warm, which will help to accelerate the melting of mid and high elevation snowpack. Valley and mid elevation rain forecast beginning Tuesday as an active weather pattern takes hold. Cooler temperatures are also expected the second half of the week, likely slowing high elevation snow melt. The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, and will likely rise further in the coming days. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast to reach minor flood stage in the Wednesday timeframe. The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood stage and expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast to remain in minor flood stage over the next several days. Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the next several days. The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in action stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 92/90/96