####018004278#### FXUS63 KFGF 100620 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 120 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms in western Minnesota Friday afternoon. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Wind shift noted by automated weather sensors in eastern ND signal the approach of a cold front pushing southeast through our area. Some low level cold air advection behind the front may help bring some brief gusty winds overnight into early morning hours up to 30 mph, best chance in the Red River Valley. While light radar returns in northwest MN are not reaching the ground, showers with embedded thunderstorms moving over lakes Manitoba and Winnipeg may reach the international border as early as 8 AM. Not expecting much impact from this, although thunderstorms later this afternoon still may become strong bringing isolated gusts to 50 mph and small hail in portions of Minnesota. UPDATE Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Upstream radars are still not overly impressive, but a light shower could clip northwest Minnesota late tonight into Friday morning. The line of cloud cover over northeast North Dakota will continue to drop slowly southeast through the FA overnight. UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The next short wave and cold front are progressing across southern Manitoba. Overall, not too much will be expected as these pass through this evening. There is a thin band of clouds, which could produce an isolated shower or two. However, upstream radar returns are not all that impressive, so may be able to remove these if that trend continues. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Fairly quiet for the first part of the night, but a shortwave coming into Manitoba and Ontario over the top of the ridge could bring some increasing cloud cover and some light shower activity to northwestern MN later tonight. The shortwave will dig into MN/WI during the day tomorrow, bringing some decent broad lift over our eastern tier of counties into the afternoon. While much will depend on how morning showers play out and how much cloud cover remains, there is at least a 40 to 50 percent chance for 500 J/kg of CAPE by tomorrow afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear will be 30 kts at best, so not expecting any severe potential, but could see some impacts from lightning and very small hail across northwestern and west central MN. Winds will be breezy across much of the CWA as the shortwave comes down and some cold air advection brings some gusts up to 35 mph at times. Westerly surface winds and the warm sector of the surface low will bring very toasty readings for Saturday, and some spots in the RRV could push 80 degrees. A bit cooler Sunday as a trough axis/cold front passes through. The next significant trough starts to move into the western Plains on Tuesday, coming out in some manner on Wednesday although clusters are still all over the place. Still could see showers and a chance for thunderstorms, but specifics on timing and strength too soon to nail down at this point. Temps will cool down to near or just below seasonal averages as the more active weather returns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The 00z set of TAFs continues to look on track. Really no impacts are expected overnight through mid Friday morning. Northwest winds will really ramp up Friday morning, will be strongest through the afternoon, then quickly drop off again early Friday evening. There could be some cumulus development late Friday morning into the early afternoon, but mainly at KTVF and KBJI. Along with this cumulus development mainly east of the Red River Valley, a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm could also form. Due to the isolated nature of this, did not mention with this set of TAFs. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon/CJ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Godon