####018007292#### FXUS61 KCAR 231614 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1214 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move southeast of the area today. Low pressure will approach tonight, cross the area Wednesday, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday. High pressure will build across the region Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1214PM Update...The dew point forecast was slightly higher than obs are currently showing. Adjusted the dewpoint forecast to show this. The rest of the forecast looks good. Previous Discussion... High pressure will shift off the coast today as a trough of low pressure begins to approach from the west. The gradient is rather tight between the departing high and the approaching low which will result in a strong southerly breeze, especially during the midday and afternoon over the north. The warm advection and sunshine will warm the air to near 60 over the north and the low 50s Downeast. Most of the day will be sunny. Some clouds will begin to push in from the west ahead of the approaching trough late this afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase ahead of the approaching low tonight as the southerly breeze continues. Some showers supported by convergence ahead of the approaching trough will begin to push into the western half of our area toward morning on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface low pressure will cross the region Wednesday, with the supporting upper trof starting to cross late. Expect precipitation in the form of rain through early Wednesday afternoon. Colder air will then begin to be drawn south across the region in the wake of the low later Wednesday afternoon. This will allow the rain to transition to snow, or mix with snow, across northern and higher terrain areas during the afternoon. Generally expect precipitation to remain in the form of rain Downeast Wednesday. The surface low exits across the Maritimes Wednesday night, while the upper trof evolves into a closed low. Colder air in the wake of the surface low, along with the cold pool aloft with the closing upper low, will allow a transition to snow across the forecast area in the wake of the exiting system Wednesday night. Snow will occur across northern areas early Wednesday night, before tapering to snow showers. Across Downeast areas, a rain/snow mix early Wednesday night will transition to snow showers before ending. Minor snow accumulations are likely across northern and central areas, along with higher terrain. However, snow totals are still uncertain dependent on how much precipitation is able to wrap back into the colder air around the exiting system. Factors which should limit snow accumulations include snow initially falling at temperatures above freezing once the transition occurs. In addition, ground temperatures could result in melting snow which would also limit accumulations. Preliminary snow accumulation estimates later Wednesday into Wednesday night are generally around an inch or less across northern and central areas. However, locally greater totals are possible at higher elevations where the transition to snow will occur earlier. Little or no snow accumulation is expected Downeast. A disturbance rotating around the exiting upper low could clip the region early Thursday. This could keep a slight chance of snow showers across mostly northeast areas early Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will build across the region Thursday into Thursday night. Expect partly/mostly sunny skies across northern areas Thursday after any lingering early snow showers. Mostly sunny skies are expected Downeast Thursday. Clear/mostly clear skies are expected across the entire region Thursday night. Below normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday, with falling temperatures during the afternoon. Temperatures will remain at below normal levels Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will remain across the region Friday, then begin to exit across the Maritimes Saturday. Mostly clear skies are expected Friday through early Saturday, with clouds then starting to increase later Saturday. Low pressure tracking west of the region will draw a warm front across the region later Saturday into Sunday. Uncertainty still exists regarding the extent of rain shower coverage due to exiting high pressure across the Maritimes. Due to the uncertainty, have kept rain shower coverage at just chance levels. A chance of showers could then persist across the region into Monday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Friday. Above normal level temperatures are then expected Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Some southwesterly wind shear is likely early this morning before the air mixes. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today into tonight with a south wind increasing to 15 kt today and dropping back to 10 kt tonight. SHORT TERM: Wednesday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Rain mixing with, or changing to, snow during the afternoon across northern areas. South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest/west 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR late. Snow tapering to snow showers north. A snow/rain mix tapering to snow showers Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots. Thursday...Occasional MVFR possible with a slight chance of snow showers across northern areas early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Thursday night through Saturday..VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A few wind gusts may approach 25 kt from the south today. Otherwise, winds should remain below SCA and seas around 3 ft today into tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions expected Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon. A few wind gusts could also reach gale levels Wednesday night into early Thursday. Conditions below small craft advisory levels Thursday night. Rain Wednesday into Wednesday night. Also, a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds will quickly increase from the south to around 15 to 20 kt over the north and 10 to 15 kt near the coast today. The wind, combined with sunshine, dry fine fuels, and relative humidities from the upper 20s north to the 40s Downeast will result in a high fire danger and a risk of any wildfires spreading from south to north in response of the wind. The fire danger will decrease tonight and be lower on Wednesday as showers move in. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/LaFlash Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash/Norcross Fire Weather... ####018007372#### FXUS61 KOKX 231616 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1216 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area will weaken this afternoon as a frontal system approaches from the west. The frontal system will then move across the area Wednesday morning and afternoon. Strong high pressure will build in from late Wednesday into Thursday, remain over the region Thursday night and Friday, and move offshore Friday night into Saturday. A warm front may lift through Saturday night into Sunday, as an associated low over the Great Lakes moves slowly eastward through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast remains on track this afternoon. High pressure continues to weaken and give way to an increasing onshore flow. Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the afternoon with some high clouds increasing from the west late. S flow will continue to become gusty into the afternoon, strongest near the coast. Temps along the coast may not be much different than those of yesterday as a result, with highs 55-60, but temps inland should be a little warmer, the 60-65 expected from interior S CT across the Hudson Valley into NYC and NE NJ. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clouds should increase tonight as the frontal system approaches, with a leading warm front bringing a chance of showers late mainly to Orange County. S flow will continue, with lows from the upper 30s across SE CT and ern Long Island, to the 40s most elsewhere, to near 50 in midtown NYC. The chance of showers will expand to cover the entire area, first in the morning with the leading warm front, then in the afternoon especially inland with the cold fropa. Fcst soundings show some sfc-based instability, but do not expect thunder given a mid level cap keeping the instability from reaching levels colder than -10C. That said, a few showers could still produce gusty winds to 35 mph given steep low level lapse rate and dry sub-cloud air. High temps on Wed will be limited to the upper 50s/lower 60s inland and out east, with mid/upper 60s for Long Island and the NYC metro area. Fropa Wed afternoon will be followed by a gusty W-NW flow ushering in colder air for Wed night-Thu. Lows Wed night should fall to the lower 40s in midtown NYC, with 30s most elsewhere and upper 20s across the interior. Freeze conditions may once again occur inland, all the way to the coast across SE CT, and across the Long Island Pine Barrens, with upper 20s/lower 30s expected. Highs on Thu should be in the lower/mid 50s, about 7-10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An Omega blocking pattern begins to set up Thursday night and becomes established on Friday, as a deep trough remains across eastern Canada into the northern Atlantic, with another trough through the Rocky Mountain region into the Plains, and a high amplitude ridge in between. As a result systems will be slow to move eastward into the beginning of next week. And a northern Plains low will be slow to move into the ridge Sunday into Monday. With surface high pressure over the region moving offshore Friday night, there is a lot of uncertainty with the development and movement of a warm front Saturday night into Sunday, as ridging remains. Regardless of the warm front, a deep return flow sets up for late in the upcoming weekend and temperatures initially below normal through Saturday quickly rise to as much as 10-15 degrees above normal Saturday night into the beginning of next week. Used the NBM guidance through the extended period. Frost headlines may once again be needed for the inland areas Thursday night and Friday night. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak off shore high pressure weakens today as a frontal system slowly approaches from the Great Lakes through tonight. VFR. A chance of showers late tonight/toward Wednesday morning. There is a low chance, low confidence, of MVFR in the showers. Light winds early this morning become southerly and increase through midday. Gusts to around 20kt develop late morning, and become more likely during the afternoon. Gusts may be occasionally higher late this afternoon along the south shore of Long Island. Southerly flow gradually weakens tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional, and more likely, and stronger, late in the afternoon. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: VFR, a low chance of MVFR in showers, mainly in the morning. SW winds 10-15G15-25kt, becoming W-NW in the afternoon, then northerly late at night 5 to 10kt. Thursday-Saturday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Quiet cond to start will give way to a strengthening S flow this afternoon and tonight. A southerly jet along the Jersey shore up into the NY Bight and lower NY Bay will gust over 25 kt, so SCA continues there. SCA cond should expand eastward later tonight into Wed, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. W-NW flow following cold fropa Wed afternoon will likely gust to 25-30 kt on all waters from late day Wed into Wed night. Extended SCA only for the ocean waters into this time frame for now. With high pressure in control Thursday night into Saturday, moving offshore Saturday night, winds and seas across the forecast waters should then remain below advisory levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued an SPS for Lower Hudson Valley of NY for elevated fire spread this afternoon given combo of min RH 25-30 percent and S winds gusting to around 20 mph. SPS for NE NJ remains for elevated fire growth potential given combo of min RH 25-30 percent, S winds gusting to 20-25 mph, and drying fuels, for this afternoon until around sunset. A similar combo will be in place across the rest of the NYC metro area, much of the lower Hudson Vally, and interior S CT along the I-84 corridor. After a cold frontal passage Wed afternoon, cond may be even more conducive for fire growth in the NYC metro area and NE NJ given similar RH and W-NW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. This will depend on how quickly RH drop and whether wetting rains occur ahead of and with the frontal passage. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through the upcoming weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/MET NEAR TERM...BG/DS SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JP/MET MARINE...BG/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BG/MET ####018006577#### FXUS64 KFWD 231617 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Wednesday night/ Stratus across portions of Central and North Texas late this morning will continue to lift and scatter with vigorous daytime mixing, leaving a mostly sunny sky this afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the middle 70s to lower 80s across all but the far west where middle 80s will be more common. A strong cap of warm air aloft will hinder storm formation through the afternoon but a few storms may manage to develop across the Big Country along an eastward mixing dryline. Therefore, we will maintain some low PoPs across the far western zones. If any storm does manage to develop, it will have a potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. The center of surface low pressure will move to near Wichita Falls this evening, allowing a weak cold front to ooze across the Red River. There is a low chance for a storm or two to develop along the front tonight but a lack of significant large scale lift will keep the cap in place. The front is progged to stall near the Red River on Wednesday and may provide the necessary lift for a few showers and storms through the night with the best chances across the northeast zones on the eastern periphery of a building ridge aloft. Low clouds will return overnight, remaining in place for much of the morning Wednesday. Increasing low level warm air advection will keep overnight lows in the 60s. Afternoon sun and increasing southerly flow will allow highs to warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Wednesday night will be humid and mild with lows in the middle and upper 60s. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ /Midweek Onward/ An active weather period is expected the latter half of the week as a trough approaches the region. Several days of storms, some of which could be severe, are in store this weekend. Specific timing and coverage remain uncertain at this time. As we move into Wednesday night, a few remnant showers and storms may be ongoing from the afternoon convection off a dryline just west of our region. Additionally, a stalled front along or just north of the Red River may also provide just enough lift for an shower or isolated thunderstorm. Any precipitation would likely be limited to our far northern counties, along the Red River. Regardless of precipitation, cloudy skies will prevail region wide. This should help keep temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees through the night with southerly winds in place. The dryline will once again sharpen during the day on Thursday, however, placement is expected to be across West Texas and the Panhandle. This will keep any precipitation away from the region during the daytime hours. As we head into Thursday evening and overnight, strong height falls associated with a passing shortwave will lead to additional development of showers and storms along the dryline. Given the enhanced forcing for ascent and plenty of moisture within the warm sector, rain chances will be rising Thursday night and continue through Friday. Severe weather potential will remain low Thursday night, however, this will be changing during the day on Friday. The dryline will be shifting eastward on Friday, providing a source of ascent while the upper trough is moving overhead. Ascent, coupled with increasing instability on the order of 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 30 kts will increase the threat for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible. The aforementioned dryline will retreat westward on Saturday as North and Central Texas will be in-between systems. Even with the westward retreat of the dryline, there will still be a potential for warm advection showers and thunderstorms during much of the afternoon. A cold front will catch up the dryline Saturday evening/night as the parent shortwave pushes northeast across the Central Plains. Low-level flow ahead of the front will remain nearly parallel to the boundary, limiting low-level convergence. If the lower levels are able to gain a more south or southeasterly wind field, thunderstorm coverage may be higher than currently forecast. The guidance continues to suggest the front will stall somewhere across North or Central Texas, continuing the periodic rain chances though at least the start of the next work week. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAF/ MVFR stratus will continue to lift and scatter late this morning with VFR expected at all TAF sites this afternoon. A few storms may initiate on the dryline late this afternoon but any storm that develops will be stay well west of the TAF sites. Stratus will return overnight, reaching Waco between 08Z and 09Z and the Metroplex TAF sites shortly after that. A slightly weaker low level jet may actually allow ceilings to temporarily fall below 1000 ft for a few hours just after sunrise. Although ceilings will begin to lift by late morning, deeper moisture will keep MVFR ceilings in place through midday. Storm chances Wednesday should stay closer to the Red River near a stalled front but impacts at both the Bowie and Bonham cornerposts will be possible. A south wind will remain in the 12 to 17 knot range this afternoon, falling between 7 and 13 knots tonight/Wednesday morning. Some higher gusts around 25 knots are possible, especially this afternoon. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 64 81 68 81 / 0 5 10 10 10 Waco 77 63 80 68 81 / 0 0 0 5 5 Paris 76 61 77 65 79 / 0 20 30 20 20 Denton 79 62 80 67 81 / 0 10 20 10 10 McKinney 77 62 79 67 80 / 0 10 20 10 10 Dallas 79 64 80 69 82 / 0 0 10 10 10 Terrell 76 62 79 65 80 / 0 0 10 10 5 Corsicana 77 64 81 67 82 / 0 0 5 5 5 Temple 75 63 80 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 83 62 81 67 82 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$