####018005074#### FXUS64 KOUN 071050 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 450 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 447 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 6 AM this morning. Visibility reductions may cause hazardous travel conditions. - Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before dry and seasonable weather into the middle of this week. - Another cold front Thursday may bring a return to chilly below- normal temperatures heading into next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Another day, another morning of fog. Areas of fog, some dense, have developed yesterday evening across much of central and southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. A surface low is moving east across north Texas and has brought a north wind to southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. However, the true front with the drier and colder air is moving into northwest Oklahoma and will push south through the entire area by later this morning. This front will clear out any low clouds and fog in its path. Some patchy fog, potentially dense, and low clouds may linger a few hours past sunrise across southeast Oklahoma before the dry air finally fills in. Post-frontal north winds may pick up this morning and into the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph possible. As the surface high sinks southward today, a cooler post-frontal airmass will keep high temperatures from rising generally above the 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Light winds and mostly clear skies will give way to radiational cooling Sunday night and temperatures plummeting into the 20s. There is a small potential for some low clouds to develop Sunday night across eastern Oklahoma and creep westward into central Oklahoma before clearing through Monday morning. In the wake of the previous shortwave and cold front, northwesterly flow will persist aloft but surface flow will return to the south. Thus, warm air advection will return to the forecast area with highs warming back to normal in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 The extended forecast continues to be dry with persistent northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwaves with rounds of cool Canadian air digging into the CONUS. Tuesday through Thursday will feature above seasonable temperatures. A shortwave with a strong jet to our north will bring a front through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the forecast area with much of the colder air keeping to the north. Another shortwave will bring a front through Thursday, but this time a strong jet streak of 150 knots up to 250mb will give way to deep cold air pushed southward into much of the eastern half of the CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures Friday could be nearly 20 degrees colder than Thursday and persist through the weekend. Ensemble guidance continues to show a large spread in temperatures for Friday from the mid 30s to lower 50s. Cluster analysis reveals about 50 percent of the models lie near the 50th percentile of the NBM (current forecast). Meanwhile, the other 50 percent is split with one cluster having a strong warm signal with temperatures leaning closer to the 90th percentile of NBM, while the other cluster is slightly cooler and leaning towards the 25th percentile of the NBM. With still a wide variation of outcomes with the ensembles, a lot is likely to change given Friday is still five days out. Trends will continue to be monitored for a unified solution. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 LIFR/IFR ceilings/visibility will continue to gradually improve from NW to SE across the area as a cold front and drier air moves across the area. MVFR ceilings in KS is expected to move into parts of N and maybe central OK this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Breezy northerly winds are expected behind the front. Wind speeds will decrease later today into tonight as sfc ridge builds into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 42 25 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 50 23 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 53 26 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 46 24 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 39 23 49 30 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 49 29 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for OKZ032- 039>048-050>052. TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ086- 088>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...25 ####018006757#### FXUS63 KAPX 071052 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 552 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Light snow across northern lower today, with lake effect possible near Whitefish Point through the day. -Cold tonight with subzero lows on the table across the interior. -Several waves set to pass through the long term forecast period... specifically Monday night, Tuesday night - Wednesday, and again this weekend. Lake enhancement / lake effect possible at various times with these wave passages. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 259 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Robust longwave troughing over eastern NOAM remains locked into place... with a weak impulse currently over Wisconsin continuing to be forced eastward by strong, cold west / northwesterly flow. Weakening thermal gradient and lack of supporting jet dynamics will essentially translate to a light snowfall across much of lower Michigan through the morning hours... perhaps 1 to 2 inches of accumulation, locally up to 3" along the Lake Michigan shores. In the wake of this system, will see some light lake effect activity across the NNW to NW flow snowbelts. Moisture is a bit lacking as upstream subsidence intruding. In addition, weak pressure gradient will continue to lead to land- lake breeze shenanigans off Lake Superior today into tonight, which may feed an additional 2 to 4 inches of snowfall across western Chippewa County (think Paradise / Whitefish Point). Will have to watch this feature closely... the theme from previous forecasts still holds, as there is always potential for convergence driven bands of snow / mesolow generation, but guidance doesn't seem to jump all over this idea... so will have to continue to keep a watch out for that. Meanwhile, big upstream 1030+ mb surface high with arctic origins over the northern Plains and Canadian prairies will charge south and east into the Great Lakes... which will eventually put an end to the snow activity... with winds decoupling and skies clearing across much of the area into tonight, save for the NW lower shoreline and portions of eastern upper. As such, our natural "refrigeration unit"... aka... the established snowpack... will be put into overdrive across the interior of northern lower. While shoreline locales probably stall out in the single digits into the teens... interior locales seem like a solid bet to be below zero by Monday morning. Wouldn't be overly surprising to see the interior "icebox" areas (Grayling, Mio, Atlanta) make a run at -10. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 259 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 The active wintry pattern continues its influence across the region through the remainder of the forecast period. Monday - Tuesday: Following what will likely be the coldest morning of the young winter season thus far, we will trend right back into an active regime with another quick moving clipper-like system passing through the Great Lakes. Synoptic snowfall looks marginal at best... most places probably wind up with a general 1 to 3 inches of snow later Monday night into Tuesday. That being said... with the cold locked into place, antecedent SSW flow looks to kick off a SSW flow lake effect boundary off Lake Michigan that could set its sights on Mackinac County (in particular, the western part of the county) and perhaps far SW Chippewa. This area could see totals in excess of 6 inches from this event. In the wake of the system... perhaps some lingering westerly flow lake effect. Definitely one to keep our eyes on. Tuesday night - Thursday: No time to put our feet up just yet, as another system... this time with a bit more beef to it... looks to quickly pass through later Tuesday night into Wednesday, and could deliver a bigger swath of snow to the region. Current probs for 4" of accumulation through Wednesday evening sit at 60% across much of the area, slightly lower in eastern upper... and touching 40% across interior northern lower for totals reaching 6 inches across northern lower. This system will have a superb warm advection surge to drive the snowfall... so will have to watch thermodynamics, especially the farther south one goes... as surface temps may balloon high enough to lead to some rain mixing in if higher end warm advection can be realized, and snow ratios in general may be lower than current guidance is depicting (outside of any FGEN bullseyes). Lake effect snow showers seem like a good bet on the backside of this system as colder air surges back into the region, which would primarily be a Wednesday night - Thursday phenom. Friday / Weekend: The core of an arctic airmass looks to make its way through the region, sending temperatures well below normal across the Northwoods. Preceded by a shortwave and persistent cold advection, this looks like it could feature prolonged lake effect snow potential across the snowbelt locales. For the time being, looks like several days with highs generally in the teens to near 20 and lows in the single digits. As such, for those looking to cash in on the early onset of winter activities may contend with snowy conditions on area roads when making the trek up to the Northwoods. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 540 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Generally VFR with a few sites MVFR/IFR due to -SN. Winds remain light and off shore. -SN over KTVC/KMBL will be exiting after 16Z, with terminal impacts likely improving to VFR/MVFR after 14Z. Winds turn northwest shortly after the beginning of the period (as the widespread -SN exits), becoming 7 to 12 with G15 to 20kts. Initial bursts of lake effect SHSN could lead to intermittent vis and cig reductions at KCIU/KPLN, with chances for this a KTVC being after 18Z. Periods of VFR should be seen by most sites after 20Z, however some coastal terminals could see MVFR cigs creep overhead after 03Z (KPLN/KAPN) as land breeze boundaries set up off shore tonight. Low chances for -SN impacts tonight at this time. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...ELD ####018006262#### FXUS65 KBOI 071055 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 355 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...For today, light precipitation will develop along a warm front as it lifts through the region. Models have trended drier with the initial band of precipitation this morning. Mountains will see light snow develop by early afternoon. At lower elevations areas closer to the foothills will see the best chance (30-50%) through the day. A weak upper trough passage tonight will give lower elevations the best chance for light rain while mtns see additional rain and snow. Snow levels start around 4kft this morning, rising to 5500-6500 feet this afternoon. This will give mtn valleys a chance for light accumulations through early afternoon (generally up to an inch). Above 6kft a general 3-6" inches is expected through Monday morning. For Monday through Tuesday night...We're still looking at a lot of rain and high mountain snow across Baker County and the w-central Idaho mountains and Boise Mountains as these areas stay locked under a deep moisture plume. The bones of the forecast remain unchanged with precipitable water values rising to the 99th percentile and mid- level winds of 30-60 mph from late Monday through Tuesday night. The resulting steady light to moderate precipitation will result in liquid amounts of 1-2" and locally up to 2.5" through Tuesday night (with more to come beyond that). Made minor adjustments to snow levels (NBM has been running slightly high), but still looking at 7-8kft for much of the period. A passing wave could briefly bring them down to 6-6.5kft across the w-central Idaho mtns Tuesday, but they quickly rebound Tuesday night. This will limit accumulation to sites above 7kft, which will get pasted with 9-18" of wet snow. Higher peaks will also see gusty winds to 45 mph along with the rain/snow. Daytime mixing brings some of that wind to open higher terrain on Tuesday where gusts of 25 to 40 mph are forecast across SE Oregon and south of the Snake Plain. Being mainly an orographic event, rain chances/amounts fall off quickly across southeast Oregon and in the Snake Plain. Expect little if any rainfall along the northern NV border and even the Steens are going to miss out on much of the precipitation during this period. Temperatures are well above normal and most sites will see highs above freezing by Tuesday. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Mid to late this coming week continues to look wet and active. This is thanks to high pressure situated off of the west coast streaming Pacific moisture over our area. Mid-level flow at 500mb will be at a notable 50-70 kt come Wednesday, this will provide a strong moisture flux with PWs around the 97-99th percentile. Higher elevations will see most of the fun, with wind speeds up to 40-55 kt down to 700mb (roughly 10,000ft MSL) orographic lift will enhance precipitation in terrain. With that in mind, the greatest precip chances and totals will generally be in the terrain north of the Snake Plain, where the moisture flux is greatest and lift is enhanced. Precipitation chances north and east of the Snake plain will remain elevated with an 80-100% chance of precipitation through Thursday morning. Precipitation chance for that same period in and south of the Snake Plain generally will be within the 30-70% range. I hate to be the bearer of bad news for those who like snow recreation...But the warm air advection in the strong flow aloft will send snow levels skyward; ranging from 7-9 kft MSL on Wednesday, lowering slightly to 6.5-8 kft MSL come Thursday. A consequence of the high snow levels is that aside from the highest peaks, most of the area will see rain as the dominate precipitation type. Over the course of Wednesday morning through Friday morning, the highest peaks could see up to a foot of additional snowfall... but little to no accumulation is expected below 8 kft MSL. Conversely, over that same time frame, Liquid precipitation totals north and east of the Snake Plain are forecasted to be 0.75-1.75 inches. Generally 0.1-0.5 inches are expected in and south of the Snake Plain, southeast Oregon will have a lower range of up to a tenth. The strong flow aloft will stick around over our area through Friday morning, and will translate down to gusty winds at the surface. This will bring gusts of 25-50 mph across the area, with the higher end of that range seen on ridge tops and and typical trouble spots of the Snake Plain. Precipitation chances and winds die down Thursday afternoon into Friday as ridging begins to build overhead. This will push the mid- level jet and moisture stream north of our area and bring in higher pressure. This ridging will make valley inversions possible, subsequently putting fog and low stratus in play to end the week. With the warmer airmass, temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal throughout the long-term period. Although the possibility of inverted conditions introduces uncertainty into the late week temperatures as colder air could get trapped near the surface. && .AVIATION...Patchy fog early this morning. Rain and snow coverage increasing along/north of KBNO-KMUO-KSUN line this morning, then moving toward NV border by evening. MVFR/IFR and local LIFR in precip and low clouds. Mtns obscured. Snow levels: 4k-5k feet MSL this morning, then 5k-7k feet this afternoon. Surface winds: variable 10 kt, then SE-SW 5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to NW 20-30 kt, increasing to 30-40 kt by Sun/15Z. KBOI...VFR with increasing clouds. Periods of rain and MVFR conditions Sun/17Z through Mon/05Z. Foothills obscured. Surface winds: SE 7-12 kt && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF