####018007418#### FXUS63 KDLH 121754 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1254 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue through early this morning for the MN Arrowhead. - Near-critical to borderline critical fire weather conditions today for northeast MN. - As the cold front moves into northwest WI this afternoon, a few storms may become strong to severe between 2PM-6PM. Localized gusty winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1" in diameter are the main concerns. - A couple chances for frost tonight, Monday night, and Tuesday night. - Dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday will give way to periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms mid to late this upcoming week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 This Morning: A surface low over far northern Ontario has an attendant cold front draped back into northwestern MN early this morning. Some weak MUCAPE ahead of this front will continue leading to scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the MN Arrowhead into the first half of the morning before precipitation moves east. Rainfall amounts are generally only a few hundredths of an inch due to significant dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Today: The cold front will quickly trek southeast across NE MN by mid to late morning, and through NW WI during the afternoon hours. By early/mid Sunday afternoon, some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms is likely in the warm sector just south of the front. Higher-res model guidance has slowed the front progression just a bit in NW WI to the point that there is a narrow window between about 2PM-6PM where storms could initiate in parts of NW WI, mainly southeast of a Spooner-Hayward-Hurley line. A few of these storms could become strong to severe given SBCAPE values rising to 700-1200 J/kg along with 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear and steep low and mid- level lapse rates. This would favor some organization to the storms as well. The main hazards would be wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to 1" in diameter. Rainfall amounts won't amount to much, roughly a quarter inch or less under the strongest storms. Past 6PM, the cold front will have moved far enough south for the storm threat to move south of our NW WI counties. Another concern on Sunday will be much drier Canadian air advecting in behind the cold front. Deep mixing will take place in the wake of the front, leading to RH values dropping into the 15-25% range, predominately in NE MN from the late morning through early evening. These lower RH values, combined with northwest winds gusting to 20-25 mph, will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions, and even some borderline Red Flag Warning criteria north of the Iron Range where the strongest gusts will be. Canadian wildfire smoke will also be moving in behind the front starting today and continuing into tonight. Have included smoke mention in the forecast as well as some increase in sky cover due to smoke aloft. Don't expect as much of an impact to surface visibilities at the moment given the deeper mixing today, but will need to reassess for tonight depending on smoke concentrations and how much of an inversion develops tonight. Additionally, a Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight in the Iron Range and northern Minnesota as winds turn lighter and temperatures drop into the mid-30s. Temperatures farther south will be in the upper-30s to low-40s. Monday - Tuesday: Dry and more seasonable weather for mid-May returns to start the work week. High temperatures will be in the 60s for most both days, albeit a bit cooler near Lake Superior. While northerly winds on Monday and easterly winds on Tuesday will be gusting to less than 20 mph given less deep mixing than we have seen the past couple days, afternoon relative humidities have trended drier and may approach 25-30% if this drier trend continues. This could lead to more near-critical fire weather days Monday and Tuesday. The drier airmass will also allow for efficient cooling at night, with some mid-30s for lows likely again Monday night and Tuesday night in the Arrowhead and parts of NW WI. Therefore, additional Frost Advisories may be needed. Wednesday - Next Weekend: Precipitation makes a return to the Northland on Wednesday- Thursday as a shortwave trough and surface low slide across the Upper Midwest. There doesn't appear to be much, if any, instability associated with this system, so it should be mainly just rain showers. Rainfall probabilities are 60-70% for >0.1" of rain with the midweek system, with a 30-40% chance for greater than 0.25", so these amounts have trended down. Ensembles show an additional series of shortwave troughs sliding across southern Canada/northern CONUS Friday into next weekend, but timing and tracks still have large spread. These troughs would bring additional shower/storm chances for next weekend (30-50% chances). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A cold front is currently working across northwest Wisconsin. Smoke aloft is mixing down behind the front leading to areas of surface smoke and low ceilings. A concentrated band of smoke will move through the BRD, HIB and DLH areas over the next few hours and may bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities for a period. It is uncertain if this concentrated band will persist into the HYR area later this evening. Northwesterly winds behind the front will gust to 20 to 25 knots into this evening before diminishing. Most of the smoke is expected to mix out overnight leaving VFR conditions by sunrise Monday. However, if the smoke is not able to mix out, MVFR conditions may continue through the period. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue along the North Shore and possibly as far south as the Apostle Islands into the early portion of this morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected, although cloud- to- water lightning remains possible at times. Southwest winds in the morning turn northwesterly behind a passing cold front this afternoon. The stronger winds should remain over land due to warmer temperatures, though some gusts up to 20 knots are possible along the immediate North Shore this afternoon into early evening. Light northeast winds are expected for western Lake Superior on Monday, but increase on Tuesday with gusts approaching 20-25 knots in the head of the Lake. There is a 40-60% chance that Small Craft Advisories may be needed from Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to Port Wing Tuesday afternoon. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012-018- 019. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...BJH MARINE...Rothstein ####018005884#### FXUS66 KMTR 121755 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1055 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 A relatively quiet pattern will develop featuring overnight and morning coastal clouds with clear skies elsewhere. Inland temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with cool onshore breezes keeping coastal temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 The marine layer has deepened appreciably with an inversion height around 800 to 1200 feet per area profilers. Low stratus is widespread early this morning with greater inland penetration as compared to yesterday. For those hoping to view the Aurora your best bet is to either head inland or into the higher terrain above the marine inversion. Given the deeper marine layer we're seeing much less in the way of fog as compared to yesterday as cloud bases are generally just a tad above the surface. The large-scale picture features weak troughing aloft over the West Coast with downstream ridging over the Desert Southwest region. This pattern will support the continued deepening of the marine layer with a repeat performance of low stratus tonight. For today, expect clouds to gradually clear towards the coast with inland warming. High temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast, to the 70s for the marine influenced valleys, to the 80s for the warmest inland locations. A few hot spots across southern Monterey County may even eclipse the 90 degree mark. Temperatures tonight will be mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with readings a bit warmer in the higher terrain inland. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1228 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 Temperatures will cool slightly with onshore flow and weak troughing aloft persisting. An upper ridge does build/strengthen over the northeast Pacific by mid week, but it appears our area will remain along its periphery with no strong signal for a warming trend. In general high temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast to the lower-mid 80s for the warmest inland areas. This will only produce a minor HeatRisk for the warmest locations. Lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s. Coastal clouds are likely during the overnight and AM hours with a gradual clearing towards the coast each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 Generally a repeat of yesterday in terms of the extent of marine stratus. As expected, saw slightly less FG impacts and higher cigs this morning due to marine layer expansion. However, many locations still dealing with IFR cigs and slow to clear this morning. Expecting stratus to linger along coastal areas through the day today with CLR conditions over land. High confidence in a relatively early return of stratus to most terminals tonight. Vicinity of SFO...Clearing conditions to VFR late this morning. Marine stratus will likely linger along the coast, Golden Gate, and near the San Bruno Gap most of the day. High confidence in IFR cigs returning overnight, though timing for them to make it around to the terminal remains moderate confidence. Otherwise typical diurnal onshore flow. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Fairly effective clearing of stratus for much of the areas away from the immediate coastline. Expecting inland areas to remain mostly CLR today, but marine stratus will linger along coastal areas through much of today. Some areas along the coast, especially the southern Monterey Bay, may see periodic recurrence of IFR cigs through this afternoon as an eddy that has formed in the Bay could essentially waft the clouds back and forth over the terminals. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 Fair weather continues for the waters of Central California through the week as high pressure builds over the Eastern Pacific. Northwest winds begin to increase this evening to a fresh breeze. Seas build to 12 to 15 feet by Tuesday before gradually abating through the rest of the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 719 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 Long period southwest swell will lead to slightly elevated chances for sneaker wave and rip current development this weekend. Conditions are expected to stay below Beach Hazards Statement criteria as swell height will only be between 1-2 feet. However, in light of anomalously warm temperatures and increased likelihood of people traveling to the coast, visitors to the beach should remember to take safety precautions to prevent being caught by an unexpected large wave and to never turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPM LONG TERM....SPM AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018006478#### FXUS64 KBMX 121756 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1256 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024 High pressure will continue to weaken today and move towards the east coast. Chaotic winds in the mid and low levels will turn to the south and southwest this evening as a developing low moves through the MS River Valley towards AL. A warm front is expected to move into the southern half of the state. High res models differ on how far north to take this front, with several recent runs trending farther south, in the southern most counties of Central Alabama. This system will bring plenty of upper level divergence, and combined with a mid level jet, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday afternoon. The initial area of scattered showers are expected overnight tonight, moving into the southwestern counties shortly before midnight. These showers will move to the northeast through the early morning, increasing in coverage. A rumble of thunder could be heard in this activity, but accumulations are expected to be on the lighter side as moisture continues to advect into the state with that southwesterly flow. By early morning, sometime between 3 and 5 am, another area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into west Alabama. Models are trying to keep this area focused along the front and in the southern half of the area, so will highlight the southern half of the state for now to have the highest chances for stronger storms with this second wave. CAMs have been fairly consistent in showing a wake low type feature in the far southwest of Central Alabama. If this maintains consistency, will need to keep an eye on how far south this area of storms moves. Winds will be strong with this feature, and damaging winds are possible. Instabilities are weak, though 01 km shear is around 35-40 kts and 0-6 km shear around 60-70 kts in the far southwest. PW values will easily be in the 90th percentile or above for this time of year. Heavy accumulations are expected with strong showers and any thunderstorms. This activity is expected to move east and southeast through mid morning. There could be a break in the activity through the early afternoon, though models diverge on how long of a break and how much of a coverage of storms would develop later. Right now, have included chances for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms with instabilities rebounding slightly into the 500 j/kg range, and shear remaining strong around 40-50 kts. Confidence is lower on timing and details of the afternoon storms, so will need to keep an eye on what the overnight and early morning system does, as well as how far north the morning feature moves. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 256 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024 An upper-level low is forecast to slowly move east across the Mid Mississippi Valley Tuesday morning, favoring forcing for ascent across Central Alabama. This disturbance will coincide with ongoing warm, moist advection across the Gulf Coast/Deep South with southwesterly low-level flow. Showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day as a result. Guidance suggests heavier convection will likely favor the I-10 corridor throughout the day, though there's potential for enough instability (MUCAPE 2,000-3,000 J/kg per the ECMWF/NAM) to support a few strong/severe thunderstorms given 40-50 kts eff. bulk shear. Forecast hodographs are mainly unidirectional, suggesting updraft splits with hail potential and perhaps some damaging winds. This is a low-confidence forecast considering uncertainties on how the system evolves, but is warranted given the parameter space. The disturbance aloft is progged to devolve into an open wave trough by Tuesday evening, with the low-level jet moving off to our east. Convection will fade from west-to-east Tuesday night. While some wrap-around moisture could foster isolated showers on Wednesday, conditions will be more stable with northwesterly flow. Thursday will be another nice day weather-wise, with highs in the 80s. However, the next system remains on track to enter the area Thursday night into Friday with potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. There's also potential for additional severe weather and flooding on this day that will be monitored accordingly. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2024 A frontal boundary will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the state beginning shortly before midnight in the southwest. Though confidence is high on initial convection beginning, the coverage and timing of convection through the rest of the TAF period has low confidence. Right now, have included prevailing rain though Monday, though will need to see model updates and adjust accordingly. Low level moisture will continue to increase overnight, with ceilings becoming MVFR in the early morning, and IFR by mid morning. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain free conditions continue through much of today, before showers return to the area this evening. More widespread rainfall and a few thunderstorms are expected for Monday. Today, light and variable 20ft winds are expected as high pressure remains over the area. Min RH values will range from 28 to 35 percent in the northeast counties to 40 to 48 in the southwest counties. 20ft winds increase from the southeast Monday at 6-12mph, with minimum RH values well above critical threshold. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 57 72 62 80 / 30 80 70 80 Anniston 59 73 64 80 / 40 80 70 80 Birmingham 61 72 65 82 / 50 80 70 70 Tuscaloosa 62 75 66 84 / 60 90 70 60 Calera 61 73 65 82 / 60 90 70 70 Auburn 63 74 65 78 / 50 90 80 90 Montgomery 63 76 67 84 / 50 90 80 80 Troy 63 77 67 82 / 50 90 80 90 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....40 AVIATION...24 ####018008529#### FXUS65 KPUB 121756 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1156 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One more round of rain, higher elevation snow, and thunderstorms today before storm departs tonight. - Showers are expected each afternoon Monday and Tuesday, with most showers remaining around and along the mountains. - Unsettled weather returns for part of the midweek period, with high (60-79%) confidence in widespread precipitation chances, but low (20-39%) confidence in precipitation amounts. - Quieter weather is anticipated for the end of the week and start of next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1152 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Updated forecast to extend winter weather advisories until 2 pm. Precip is still wrapping around into the higher elevations of Pikes Peak. Snow is melting on roadways but still slushy, and snow is still likely accumulating on grassy areas. Landspout threat still continues over easter plains, especially along the boundary that will slowly push southeastward through the daylight hours. SPC has put far eastern plains into a 2% tor threat, and the NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER on the SPC mesopage website is starting to peg the SE CO region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 435 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Active morning so far with 17 inches of snow falling in an 9 hour period at Leadville in Lake county last evening and overnight. Webcams at Fremont Pass and Leadville shows some heavy snow accumulations and this area is under the TROWAL/wrap around band of precipitation along the northern side of the upper low centered across southwest CO as of 09z. Convective enhancement has helped precipitation and snow accumulations over-perform as is typical of wet spring storms. Question will be how much of this will continue across our area as the upper low pulls eastward and this precipitation band spreads south and eastward with time. High res models have been increasing QPF across Fremont and Teller counties as well as the upper Arkansas river valley. Although loss of heating would suggest less widespread convective enhancement this morning, persistent lightning with convective elements continues to percolate along the front range which is funneling moisture into the central mountains. Will follow the trends of the high res models and expand advisories eastward into portions of Teller and Fremont counties this morning. Temperatures in Teller county have already dropped to around freezing and model soundings have been showing the potential for snow levels to drop to around 8500 feet this morning. Warmth of ground may mitigate impacts below 9000 feet, but can't rule out some heavy wet slushy accumulations during the heavier precipitation rates this morning. Have limited advisories to the morning hours for now as snow levels are advertised to rise again this afternoon. Central mountains will see advisories and warnings continue through 15z and it is possible that extensions of the advisories may be needed for southern areas through 18z depending on how consolidated this wrap around band maintains. Elsewhere will see rain showers across the lower elevations below 9000 feet with lighter snow accumulations across the higher areas of our southern mountains due to the storm track. Across the plains today, showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon with the potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms across the far eastern plains towards 21z. HREF mean CAPE stays below 1000 j/kg with better shear to the east. But for a any early afternoon development there is the potential for higher CAPE before the surface dew point mixes out behind the boundary. Hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary risks. Depending on the position of the boundary and timing of storm development, can't rule out a landspout if it can tap some resident vorticity along a more stationary segment of the boundary. Baca and Prowers counties may have the best chance for this, albeit this probability still looks low and mesoscale trends will need to be monitored closely. Like yesterday, leaned towards the cooler side of guidance for high temperatures today where precipitation is likely to affect heating. Went closer to model blends farther east. Clearing takes place overnight so went on the cooler side of guidance for the valleys. May need to monitor these areas for potential ground fog development towards morning. -KT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 435 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Monday - Tuesday: The start of the new week will bring some active weather to south central and southeastern Colorado, with daily chances of showers. A messy shortwave ridge will drift over the region, and while no major synoptic forcing is expected with this feature, minor orographic forcing will continue. This forcing, in combination with modest moisture still in place, will allow for showers to blossom each day, particularly along and immediately around the mountains. And while most precipitation is anticipated to remain around and along the mountains both days, a weak front from a wave to the north Tuesday afternoon may help to blossom additional showers across the eastern plains as it sags southward. Snow showers are expected for the peaks of the mountains, with rain showers and thunderstorms expected elsewhere. With all of that said, as diurnal instability wanes each day, any showers across the region are expected to weaken and dissipate heading into the overnight hours. As for temperatures, a warming trend is anticipated. Much of the area will warm to near to above seasonal temperatures for mid May. Wednesday - Thursday: For around the midweek period, more active weather is anticipated for the region. An unsettled pattern will develop over the area, as two lows/waves try to interact with each other. Ensemble model guidance is in good agreement about these features trying to phase with each other, but there is still some disagreement about timing of the phase and how much they phase together. Overall, there is high confidence (60-79%) this pattern will bring more widespread precipitation chances to south central and southeastern Colorado as the waves pass over the region. However, given some uncertainty in how these lows/waves will eventually interact, confidence is low (20-39%) in how much precipitation falls. With that said though, the gap between the lowest ensemble model and the highest ensemble model has closed some, so this could be trend toward a more particular solution, and hopefully details on that will become more clear over the next few days. Looking at temperatures, much of the area will cool down to below seasonal values given the unsettled pattern over the region. Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and into the weekend, a downtick in active weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will develop into a more ridging pattern, and no major sources of forcing are expected to influence the region. Ensemble model guidance are in relatively good agreement on this pattern change, though are a bit more flat with the ridging. With no major forcing, dry conditions are expected for the region, though an an isolated shower can't be ruled out along the mountains given weak orographic forcing. Then, as for temperatures, a rebound to warmer values is expected, as much of the area warms to above seasonal values for mid May. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Mainly VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Main concern is we could see some brief mvfr (bkn030) with passing showers through early evening. Winds will generally be NW at 15 to 25 knts this afternoon decreasing this evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ063-076-081-082. && $$ UPDATE...HODANISH SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...HODANISH ####018003095#### FZPQ50 PGUM 121756 SRFGUM Surf Zone Forecast for the Mariana Islands National Weather Service Tiyan GU 356 AM ChST Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing reefs. The rip current risk will remain low along all other reefs. $$ GUZ001-MPZ001>003-131000- Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan- 356 AM ChST Mon May 13 2024 36 hour Surf Zone Forecast for the Marianas from 600 AM Monday through 600 PM Tuesday .TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY (6 AM TO 6 PM TUESDAY)... Rip current risk.....Moderate *. Surf Height North facing reefs............2 to 4 feet. East facing reefs............6 to 8 feet. South facing reefs............1 to 3 feet. West facing reefs............1 to 3 feet. Swell/Period Primary swell................East at 3 to 6 feet. Primary period...............8 seconds. Water temperature Satellite estimates..........83 to 84 Degrees. Maximum afternoon heat index...........Around 100. Coastal Winds............East at 10 to 15 mph. .OUTLOOK...Surf may build around 1 foot along east facing reefs midweek, possibly increasing the rip current risk to high. Tide information for the next 36 hours... At Apra Harbor, Guam... Low tide 1.8 feet at 6:00 AM Monday High tide 2.2 feet at 9:56 AM Monday Low tide 0.0 feet at 5:45 PM Monday High tide 2.3 feet at 1:45 AM Tuesday Low tide 1.8 feet at 7:07 AM Tuesday High tide 2.0 feet at 10:49 AM Tuesday Low tide 0.2 feet at 6:38 PM Tuesday At Rota Island... Low tide 1.7 feet at 5:54 AM Monday High tide 2.0 feet at 9:53 AM Monday Low tide 0.0 feet at 5:39 PM Monday High tide 2.2 feet at 1:42 AM Tuesday Low tide 1.6 feet at 7:01 AM Tuesday High tide 1.9 feet at 10:46 AM Tuesday Low tide 0.2 feet at 6:32 PM Tuesday At Tinian Island... Low tide 1.5 feet at 5:36 AM Monday High tide 1.6 feet at 8:57 AM Monday Low tide -0.1 feet at 5:29 PM Monday High tide 1.7 feet at 1:47 AM Tuesday Low tide 1.4 feet at 6:49 AM Tuesday High tide 1.5 feet at 9:53 AM Tuesday Low tide 0.0 feet at 6:22 PM Tuesday At Tanapag Harbor, Saipan... Low tide 1.7 feet at 7:09 AM Monday High tide 1.8 feet at 9:26 AM Monday Low tide -0.1 feet at 5:55 PM Monday High tide 2.3 feet at 2:06 AM Tuesday Low tide 0.1 feet at 6:48 PM Tuesday High tide 2.2 feet at 2:55 AM Wednesday Low tide 1.4 feet at 9:38 AM Wednesday * Low Risk of rip currents - Strong currents can still occur near jetties and reef channels. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. Moderate Risk of rip currents - Wave conditions support stronger or more frequent rip currents. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. High Risk of rip currents - Large waves will produce strong rip currents, especially along narrow reefs and beaches. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the beach rather than against the current. $$ ####018007523#### FXUS61 KCLE 121756 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 156 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure briefly builds northward across the region today but moves quickly eastward tonight. Low pressure approaches the region from the Southern Plains late Monday as a cold front sags southward stalling over the southern Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 12:30 PM Update... The forecast remains on track this afternoon. Clouds are eroding nicely over far NE Ohio and NW PA, setting up a mostly sunny afternoon. 9:30 AM Update... The forecast remains on track this morning with no changes needed. The clouds over NE Ohio and NW PA will gradually erode late this morning and this afternoon as high pressure and drier air builds eastward. This will lead to all areas seeing sunshine by late afternoon, although high cirrus will start to spread back in this evening as a weak cold front sags in from the NW. Previous Discussion... Minimal changes made to the forecast. Only change was to use coverage terms across NW PA for the morning showers. The zones will say isolated to scattered showers through the morning. Previous Discussion... The lake will contribute some additional moisture and low level lift with steeper low level lapse rates this morning. Water surface temperatures to 850 mb temperatures are running 10+ degrees so expect the lake enhanced showers to persist into at least late morning across NE OH into NW PA. Beyond the morning hours we should see high pressure ridge into the area from the south with dry conditions expected everywhere through midnight. After midnight a cold front will be sagging toward the north shore of Lake Erie with increased chances of showers along and ahead of it. Most of these showers initially remain over the lake but will attempt to move onshore across extreme NE OH into NW PA by sunrise Monday. Cloud cover will be slow to erode across NE OH into NW PA today, which will impact high temperatures. Expect to see a range of highs from around 60 across NW PA to the mid 70's across NW OH. A bit warmer tonight with an increasing southerly wind and clouds increasing over the lake into NW PA. Lows should range from the mid 40's to mid 50's. A weakening cold front attempts to move onto Lake Erie by late in the day. There may be a few showers across the east end of the lake into maybe NW PA. The best chances likely occur across NW OH during the evening with low chances for thunder as well. A warm front will be north of the entire region on Monday with highs ranging from the mid 70's to lower 80's. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... During the short term period, 2 separate low pressure system will impact the area, resulting in multiple rounds of precipitation. Initially, a cold front associated with a low pressure system over Quebec will move east across the area Monday night, increasing the chances of precipitation from northwest to southeast. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. On Tuesday, an upper level trough and associated low pressure over the central US will begin to move east across the Ohio River Valley. This system will have better synoptic forcing with it, but with the area remaining on the cold side of the low expecting primarily rain. The caveat may be Tuesday afternoon where diurnal instability may result in thunder across the area. Throughout the day on Wednesday, showers will taper from west to east and eventually dry out Wednesday night as the aforementioned low pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and high pressure begins to build into the area. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be a bit cooler behind the front with temperatures only rising into the mid to upper 60s, possibly touching 70 across the southern counties. Overnight lows will gradually cool through the period with lows Monday night falling into the upper 50s but cooling to be in the upper 40s to low 50s by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and an associated upper level ridge will allow for the start of the long term period to remain dry and warm with temperatures on Thursday climbing into the low to mid 70s. After Thursday, models suggest a negative trough pushing east over the region as another surface low develops over the Midwest. Models are fairly consistent with that surface low tracking northeast through Ohio which likely brings widespread showers and probably a few thunderstorms to the area for the end of the week/beginning of the weekend, but with divergence in model agreement on timing opted to maintain chance PoPs for the end of the week with the greatest chance of thunder on Friday and Saturday in the afternoon. With the area expected to be in the warm sector of the aforementioned low at some point, temperatures on Friday and Saturday are expected to be above normal for this time of year with overnight lows lingering in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Much quieter flight conditions are expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure gradually shifts east of the area, but its continued influence maintains VFR conditions. Lingering MVFR at KYNG and KERI should dissipate over the next hour based on visible satellite loops. The only potential fly in the ointment is an isolated shower or thunderstorm at KTOL and KERI between 06 and 12Z tonight as a weak cold frontal boundary drops into Lake Erie before stalling and retreating back north as a warm front Monday morning. Limited moisture and forcing makes this a very low chance, so kept it out of the TAFs for now. W to NW winds of 5 to 15 knots this afternoon will become light southerly to variable tonight before turning SW and increasing to 10-20 knots Monday morning in a strong warm air advection pattern. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... A surface trough lingers over the eastern Great Lakes as a low pressure system continues to shift east this morning. As a result, winds remain at 15-20 knots from the northwest which has allowed waves to climb to 3-5 feet across the central and eastern basins. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. As high pressure builds in today, winds will weaken and become variable at 5- 10 knots before a warm front lifts north tonight and shifts winds to become south-southwesterly at 15-20 knots. With predominately offshore flow, the largest waves will remain across the northern lakeshore, but will need to monitor wind speeds for any additional marine headlines. Late Monday into Tuesday, a low pressure system will begin to move east across the Ohio River Valley gradually shifting winds counterclockwise before becoming sustained from the northeast at 5-10 knots Tuesday night which will persist through Wednesday. High pressure returns to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...Garuckas/MM SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Campbell ####018008308#### FXUS66 KOTX 121758 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1058 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will once again be warm, with highs reaching the 80s and a few areas in the lower 90s. An approaching system will increase the breeziness this afternoon and Monday, especially closer to the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. A chance for showers will come to the Cascade crest, northeast Washington and the northern Idaho Monday, lingering over Idaho Tuesday. Temperatures will cool for Monday and Tuesday, rebound around midweek, then decrease again later in the week as the next shower and breezy winds chances come in. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday: The Inland NW will experience once more warm day, before a system moves in and cools thing at little bit, with localized shower chances and gusty winds. Today the axis of the ridge of high pressure will shift east, while the first shortwave moves in from the west. The ridge will continue to provide mostly dry conditions and temperatures reaching the upper 70s and 80s, along with a few areas approaching 90 in the deeper Columbia Basin. The approaching shortwave will enhance the onshore flow, leading to slightly cooler readings in the Cascades and some afternoon breeziness. Then tonight into Monday morning the first shortwave moves through the region, followed by a second shortwave trough on its heels Monday afternoon and evening. The first wave will lead to more clouds and very limited shower chances near the immediate Cascade crest and Canadian border. Winds will also increase more noticeably near the Cascades into the Waterville Plateau early this evening, with speeds near 15-25 mph, with gusts near 30-40 mph. Areas just downwind of the Blue Mountains will see some winds near 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph. Speeds abate a little overnight into early Monday. The second wave moving in will keep shower chances alive near the Cascade crest through afternoon and bring broader shower chances across northeast WA and the north and central ID Panhandle, including skimming by the northeast Spokane county area into the CdA area. As that wave sags through in Monday evening it will draw more clouds south and east and, per some guidance, expand shower chances over more of the Spokane/CdA area and possibly as far south as far northern Whitman county. No all guidance is in agree with this precipitation scenario but the risk seems enough to warrant at least a slight chance in these ares. Either way precipitation amounts mostly look light. The exception could be in the northeast WA mountains and north ID where some embedded t-storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening. Winds will pick up across the region Monday afternoon and evening. The strongest speeds will continue near the Cascades and Waterville Plateau at 15-30 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph. Elsewhere speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts 15-25 mph will be possible, especially unsheltered areas. Heading into Monday overnight into Tuesday the shortwave moves east, leaving the area in a northeast flow and shifting the primary shower chances to the northern and central ID Panhandle. Winds remain breezy overnight with some decline toward day break, before the pick up again in the afternoon over some the area. The breezier conditions by Tuesday afternoon will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau, with winds changing from westerly to more northerly with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph. Temperatures will be cooling to the upper 60s and 70s, with a few low 80s in the deeper Columbia Basin and L-C Valley for Monday and Tuesday, with overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s. /Solveig Tuesday night through Saturday: Models are in good agreement for the upper level ridge to at least temporary rebound over the Inland Northwest on Wednesday. This will allow temperatures will warm back into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, there still exists a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of the ridge. While models do agree on the initial rebound of the ridge on Wednesday, there are many opposing solutions on the impact an upper level trough will have on it as it passes through British Columbia on Thursday. 55% of ensembles out of a 100 ensemble suite show a deeper trough to move into the northwest. However, among these ensembles, there are varying possibilities on the overall strength of this trough. In general, this would deflect the ridge to our south, bringing temperatures down into the 50s and 60s on Thursday, breezy winds, and chances for precipitation. A weaker trough would be a slightly "warmer" solution, with breezier winds and less precipitation. A faster moving, stronger trough solution would result in much cooler temperatures, better chances for widespread preciptiation, and an earlier onset of breezy winds. Meanwhile, the other 45% of ensembles show a ridge remaining in place, with less of an influence from the trough as it passes to our north. Again, among these ensembles, there are varying degrees on the strength of this ridge. A stronger ridge would would keep temperatures in the 70s and 80s with clear skies and dry weather. However, a weaker ridge would still allow there to be some influence from the trough to our north, with these solutions showing breezy winds and slightly "cooler" temperatures compared to the strong ridge. Because of this, the forecast for Thursday and beyond will change several times over the next couple of days as models begin to trend toward a consensus. Uncertainty in the forecast continues Friday through the weekend with the potential for additional systems to pass through the Inland Northwest. Models show a gradual decline in temperatures through the weekend continuing into early next week, but the exact numbers carry very low confidence at this time. /vmt && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at TAF sites. A few more clouds are possible over the northern mountains, with some fair cumulus build-ups in the afternoon, with isolated shower chances near the Canadian border for this evening and overnight. Winds increase this afternoon with gusts near 15-20 mph in the 1300-1900 PDT time frame for most place. The exception will be near the Cascades, including EAT where winds will remain breezy through the night with gusts near 30kts possible. There will be risk for LLWS as a low level jet strengthens in advance of the shortwave, with the potential near PUW, MWH and, if the mixing decouples, near EAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence in showers and precise timing of winds near the Cascades and EAT, as well as low to moderate confidence in LLWS overnight/early Monday near PUW, MWH and EAT. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 82 51 75 47 75 49 / 0 0 10 20 10 0 Coeur d'Alene 80 51 73 47 71 47 / 0 0 20 20 10 0 Pullman 77 51 70 46 69 47 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 Lewiston 85 54 79 52 77 52 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 Colville 83 48 76 45 77 45 / 0 10 20 20 10 0 Sandpoint 78 50 70 48 69 46 / 0 0 30 30 20 0 Kellogg 76 53 68 49 68 49 / 0 0 20 20 20 0 Moses Lake 88 53 79 48 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 86 56 74 50 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 89 53 79 48 81 51 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$ ####018008008#### FXUS63 KAPX 121758 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 158 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm potential late this afternoon into tonight. A few strong/severe storms possible, mainly this evening. - Continuing rain/thunderstorm chances for central Lower Monday/ Monday night. - Rain chances return Thursday and beyond. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1128 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Current forecast remains on track as showers work across parts of northern Michigan. These showers are expected to move out of northern lower Michigan by mid afternoon, leading to a lull in precip chances and sunshine into this evening. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will move into northwest lower and eastern upper this evening, and move through the area tonight. A few strong storms will be possible, with the main hazards being gusty winds and small hail. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Synopsis/pattern: Yesterday's system of concern is near Niagara and heading east. A surface ridge axis extends northward across Lake MI and eastern upper MI, providing brief benign wx here. Our next system is over far nw Ontario, with a cold front trailing off into nw MN and eastern ND. This front moves into the area late tonight. Forecast: Dealing with some shallow ground fog in the usual sheltered locales. That should erode fairly quickly past sunrise. There have been some weak warm-advection-forced showers/sprinkles early this morning in parts central/western upper MI and northern WI. This is ahead of an elevated warm front, and behind the surface ridge. These will continue to migrate eastward, reaching western Chip/Mack Cos toward mid- morning. Sct showers will continue to develop eastward across the UP, far northern and ne lower MI, late morning to mid afternoon. Trailing this, partial sunshine will break out, especially in nw lower MI. That will help warm nw lower into the lower 70s today, with 60s to upper 50s elsewhere (coolest near Lakes Huron and Superior). Surface moisture does not recover (yet), with dew points in the low-mid 40s most commonly. So available Cape is minimal thru, say, 21Z/5pm. But a surface warm front then pushes east into the area, heading into this evening. Moisture in the BL jumps, with dew points climbing to around 50f. That gives a narrow window (before diurnal cooling kicks in) to boost MlCape values to 300-500j/kg. That corresponds with 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40kt, and sw winds at 1km also of 35-40kt. So it's another event with reasonable shear and wind fields, but unimpressive instability. Kind of wish either shear or instability were a little bit stronger to get real excited. But SPC has a marginal svr risk late today in a good portion of northern lower MI, and that isn't unreasonable. Main hazard is wind and perhaps hail, between 6 pm and midnight. So likely pops develop initially in eastern upper MI, the Straits, and far nw lower MI, by early evening. That expands se-ward thru the evening and early overnight, before pops start to diminish and exit closer to morning. A chance for showers/ storms lingers in the far se thru 12Z. Localized QPF will exceed 0.50" Min temps tonight from the lower 40s n to lower 50s se. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Pattern Forecast: Large scale pattern for this week starts with a northern branch short wave trough/upper low over northern Manitoba tracking east across James Bay...though it will slow/stall there as heights build downstream over the Atlantic. Meanwhile a southern branch low over the Four Corners this morning crosses the central/ southern Plains Monday and into the southeastern U.S. by Wednesday. Great Lakes remains in between these two features through midweek... then another split trough coming in off the Pacific and into central North America Thursday...and spreading height falls across the region for the end of the week. Northern branch wave passing by well to the north of the Great Lakes has an associated surface cold front that will drop into Lower Michigan Sunday night...and then stall across central Lower Michigan as front parallels upper level flow. Eventually this front should be given a nudge south by high pressure over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island ridging south into the upper Lakes Monday night/Tuesday with north/northeast boundary layer flow setting up across Michigan. Southern branch short wave trough over the mid/lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday will have a surface reflection that tracks across the Ohio Valley with eventual secondary cyclogenesis over the mid Atlantic...while surface ridge continues to hang on over the upper Lakes. Pattern evolution gets more muddled toward the end of the week but the idea in general for height falls and some resultant low pressure moving through the Great Lakes perhaps in the later Friday/Saturday time frame. Primary Forecast Concerns: Continuing rain/thunderstorm chances for central Lower Monday/ Monday night: Cold front will arrive in western Upper Michigan late this afternoon and work its way into Lower Michigan after midnight. Front looks like its going to get hung up south of M-72 Monday morning...there may some showers along the low level theta-e axis coincident with the boundary at the start of the day. Some low level instability will develop with diurnal heating which will bubble up additional convection south of an MBL-APN line during the afternoon. Meanwhile...southern branch short wave trough moving out of the central/southern Plains expected to have a developing deformation rain band that will spread into central/southern Lower Monday afternoon/evening with a surge of deep layer moisture into the southern half of the state (precipitable water 1.25-1.50 inch). Northern edge of this precipitation shield will probably scrape areas south of that same MBL-APN line...overnight mid level winds shift more northwest across the northern half of the state which is forecast to push the deformation zone farther into southern Lower. As long as this pans out expectation is that rain threat should come to an end by sunrise Tuesday. Rain chances return Thursday and beyond: After a couple of dry days with high pressure ridging in from the north...split Pacific trough moves into the Plains/Midwest Thursday. The majority of Thursday may end up staying dry...better rain probabilities look to be occur on Friday. And Saturday right now is a bit of a toss-up. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 157 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will persist across TAF sites into this evening. Ongoing scattered showers are expected to move east of most TAF sites later this afternoon, with the exception potentially being CIU where showers will likely last into the early evening. A second round of showers and storms is anticipated later this evening into tonight, where a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and hail will be possible. CIGs look to temporarily lower to MVFR, and potentially IFR for a brief time, later tonight behind precip. VSBYs may also drop to MVFR/IFR later tonight with patchy fog possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to return shortly after sunrise on Monday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. && $$ UPDATE...DJC SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JPB AVIATION...DJC ####018004701#### FXUS61 KRLX 121758 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 158 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new work week amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns Monday night lasting into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 147 PM Sunday... A dry and chilly night is on tap as a surface high pressure remains in control under mostly clear skies. Winds will become calm overnight allowing for radiational cooling to drop temperatures few degrees, slightly below normal at our common cold spots into Monday morning. Dry conditions will persist for the most part on Monday as the high pressure shifts east, and the area becomes under deep northwest flow. Warm air advection will promote warm afternoon temperatures, generally in the lower 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations. A southern stream shortwave energy, riding along an upper level ridge, will bring an increase in clouds and low chances for precipitation Monday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching low pressure system. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Sunday... First half of Monday remains mostly dry under the influence of high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas. A warm front will pass through early leading to a warm day with temperatures above normal for most locations; highs in the lower 80s will be common across the lowlands. Clouds will gradually increase from south to north during the day though, due to the aforementioned FROPA and moisture advecting ahead of a low pressure system over the Midwest. Precipitation chances increase from the west in the evening with likely PoPs entering overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1155 AM Sunday... Drier conditions take hold for Thursday as high pressure surface and aloft briefly builds in. There could be an isolated shower or even storm however, from any lingering moisture behind departing system and diurnal heating. Otherwise, another low will approach the area for Friday into the weekend, with additional rounds of showers and storms. This period also looks to be a period that will need to be watched for localized water issues, with model soundings suggesting deeply saturated profiles with tall skinny cape, however, it appears as though this feature will not linger long, with drier weather taking hold for Sunday, therefore have low confidence this far out in terms of impacts. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 147 PM Sunday... Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the end of period. High pressure remains in control with dry weather and mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Differential heating sources will produce gusty winds up to 20 knots through sunset. Winds will become light and variable or even calm overnight tonight. The clear skies and calm flow will allow shallow fog to develop mainly along the river valleys. Do not expect areas of dense fog to affect any terminals at this point. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated at this time. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Areas of IFR visibility or ceilings are possible in rain Tuesday afternoon and night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ ####018007753#### FXUS61 KALY 121759 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 159 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will depart the region tonight with rain showers ending along with partial clearing. Warmer weather returns early this week with continued chances at some showers and possible thunderstorms each day through midweek. Drier and seasonable weather may return for late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...As of 120 PM EDT, latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low now positioned across eastern New England as the surface low over central Pennsylvania dissipates. While forcing is beginning to depart, continued upper-level troughing overhead will result in some isolated to scattered showers through the afternoon. The most persistent rainfall today and still currently has been across portions of the Lake George/Washington County region into southern Vermont. Temperatures will generally top out in the 50s with some pockets of lower 60s possible in the valley areas. Rising upper-level heights and surface high pressure centered to our east will bring an end to showers this evening with some partial clearing overnight, which may provide some viewing conditions for tonight's aurora. Visit the Space Weather Prediction Center website for more. Some patchy fog may also develop along some of the river valleys where the more persistent clearing occurs. Lows will fall back into the upper 30s to mid-40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Flattened upper ridging builds in from the west through Monday, yielding a drier day amidst the recently wet pattern. The break from rain showers is brief, however, as another upper-level low slides eastward across Ontario and Quebec while a warm front lifts across the region Monday afternoon into Monday night. The best chance for showers will be in the southern Adirondacks and adjacent areas north and west of Albany through the afternoon, and generally north of I-90 through Monday night. Temperatures trend upward toward seasonal norms, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s in high terrain and mid to upper 60s at lower elevations, and falling to mild overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Warm frontal rain showers will exit to the north and east by late Monday night, while a trailing cold front arrives from the west by Tuesday afternoon to evening. Ahead of the cold front, gusty south winds will aid in advecting ample moisture into the region, setting the stage for a soaking rain with the potential for sufficient instability for a few rumbles of thunder as the boundary slowly progresses to the southeast Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Persistent ridging over the North Atlantic will see the front slow or even stall overnight. Within the warm sector on Tuesday afternoon, temperatures look to rise above normal, reaching highs in the 60s in high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, while continued rain showers will yield very mild overnight lows in the 50s across the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A slow moving front from the Great Lakes will approach eastern NY on Wednesday. Its parent low will be displaced well to our north near the Hudson Bay and weakens as it pushes through Quebec. This plus the fact that the moisture and thermal gradient along the boundary is rather weak suggests the boundary will likely wash out as it pushes east during the day on Wednesday. While guidance does suggest the majority of the rain remains mainly west of the Capital District, we also will be monitoring an upper level trough tracking eastward from the Ohio Valley. The shortwave trough looks to be positioned in the favorable left exit region of a jet streak oriented over the Southeast U.S which will help steer the trough towards the East Coast. Some guidance still indicates that the trough may close off which would slow down its eastward progression and delay the onset of POPs for the Capital District and areas south of I-90 until later in the day Wednesday or even Wednesday night. Given ongoing uncertainties, we show likely POPs for areas mainly south of I-90 where rain showers from the incoming trough should reach while areas north/west of the Capital District max out at chance POPs due to the weakening/washed out boundary. PWATs ahead of the boundary exceed 1 inch so some weak instability may be generated resulting in steadier periods of rain, especially where any thunderstorms can develop. Otherwise, highs on Wednesday should only reach into the mid to upper 60s with some near 70 degree readings in the valley. Increased PWATs streaming ahead of the boundary will help make it feel muggier/warmer. Between the weakening boundary and slow moving upper level trough, we maintain chance and slight chance POPs through the first half of Wednesday night before trending POPs lower. POPs may trend lower in future updates if confidence increases that the better forcing from the upper level low remains to our south and the boundary indeed washes out before reaching the Hudson River. Otherwise, expecting a cloudy, slightly muggy, and mild night with lows only in the 50s. Some showers may linger into Thursday, mainly in far southern zones, as the upper level trough continues to slowly push off shore. If the best forcing remains south, Thursday should trend drier. Otherwise, temperatures should end up warmer than Wednesday given less precipitation and the warmer air mass that spread ahead of the boundary still in place. Expecting highs to reach into the low to mid 70s. Friday continues to look dry and seasonably warm as upper level ridging and sfc high pressure from northern New England build overhead. However, the dry weather appears short-lived as unsettled weather returns for the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z Monday...Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions in place this afternoon as an upper level low tracks east across the region. Scattered showers will be around, with the best chances for a few rounds of -SHRA at KGFL/KPSF where TEMPO has been included. Will mention VCSH at KALB. Any -SHRA should stay north of KPOU. As the upper low moves into New England this evening, conditions are expected to improve to VFR. BKN-OVC cigs will also likely to scour out to FEW-SCT coverage through the evening hours. With not much drying overnight and fairly moist ground conditions, there is a threat of fog with MVFR/IFR possible. Will include mention of IFR at most favored sites KGFL/KPSF with MVFR for now at KALB/KPOU. Will continue to monitor trends. Winds will be variable around 6 kt or less through the rest of the day, becoming near calm tonight. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...JPV ####018007299#### FXUS62 KFFC 121759 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 159 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Key Messages: - Fair weather will prevail in the region today. - Cloudy skies, cooler temperatures and scattered light rain showers are expected Monday. Today & Monday: Upper level ridging and a surface high will bring benign weather to the region today. The core of the surface high will be closer to us today (compared to Saturday) and this will result in lighter winds this afternoon. Northwest winds between 4 and 8 mph can be expected. Light and variable winds will develop tonight as the boundary layer decouples and the surface high settles over Georgia. An approaching trough will bring significant changes to Georgia's weather on Monday. Cloud cover will return in force tonight as southwesterly follow in the mid and upper levels brings a surge of moisture northward. By Monday morning isentropic lift associated with a weak mid level trough (ahead of the larger shortwave in the Plains) could produce light rain showers. Any accumulations through Monday morning should be less than 0.25 inches. A relative minimum in precipitation potential is expected Monday afternoon before widespread rain showers and thunderstorm build back in Monday evening/night (associated with lift from the parent trough and a low level jet). Shifts in the forecast towards greater rain chances and more cloud cover have introduced a significant amount of uncertainty into the high temperature forecast for Monday afternoon. Below average high temperatures are likely (>90% chance), but the spread in the NBM guidance is quite large. For the Atlanta area the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile MaxT's is 7 degrees (69 to 76 degrees). Similar large spreads exist for the rest of northern and central Georgia. Our deterministic forecast remains close the the 50 percentile of the NBM and favors a highs in the lower 70s for most of northern and central Georgia. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 The long term forecast looks quite wet overall with a parade of lows within the southern branch of the jet moving past the CWA through the end of the week (and possibly even into early next week, but that is beyond the scope of this forecast). The forecast picks up Monday night with rain likely ongoing across the CWA. Upper level cut off low with begin to progress eastward, albeit slowly, and initial upper level divergence will have overspread the CWA. Isentropic lift over a theta-e gradient should provide for widespread rain showers through the night, though some elevated instability may provide for a few rumbles of thunder. As the low progresses east, but upper level support will arrive with moderate jet streak overspreading the CWA on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance paints a decent probability space for the intersection of instability, shear, and precipitation over the CWA, with highest probabilities in central GA, decreasing as you move into north GA. This feels appropriate, and the northward extent may be overdone overall. Models will typically struggle with the rain based reinforcement of the surface boundary attempting to lift north as a mass response to the surface low, and generally these boundaries will remain further south than forecast. In simpler terms, the further south the surface based warm, moist air from the Gulf remains, the lower the overall severe threat for our area. Looking at hodographs and overall model forecast soundings, primary threat would likely be wind and maybe hail. SW surface winds will make ingestion of streamwise vorticity a bit more challenging, keeping tornado threat low for now. Better examination will be had in the short term guidance as Tuesday evening comes into range. The trade off of a lower severe threat may be an elevated flooding/flash flooding risk, especially if that boundary sits in the same location further south and provides a source for repeated lifting of air parcels. Central Georgia would once again be the primary candidate for this, though the sandy soils can take a bit more rain before it becomes a problem. Current forecast QPF over this time period is 2- 4" with locally higher amounts in central GA, and 1-2" across north GA including metro Atlanta. 6 hr flash flood guidance is generally 4" or higher across much of central GA, so any threat may be driven by more convective elements and/or training of cells over the area. The system clears out through Wednesday morning, and we should see some clearing through Thursday before the next system approaches the area. Model trends seem to be slowing this system a bit, pushing the overall timing of rain into Friday. This is another slower moving system, and both the GEFS and EPS probabilities of rain are relatively high through the weekend. Details of what exactly this looks like are bit more fuzzy, though the deterministic suite shows a stalled boundary over the CWA that appears to be the focus of most of the rainfall. This is a bit of a concerning signal given we may have some heavier rainfall on the front end of the week, but certainly too early with too much uncertainty to ring any flooding alarm bells just yet. Lusk && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the evening, with gradually deteriorating conditions from the W after midnight tonight. Showers will spread into CSG by daybreak, with rain spreading across the remainder of the terminals through Mon morning. Have opted for lower ceilings (IFR) in rain as model soundings look to be nearly saturated in the lower levels at the expected onset of precipitation. Rainfall is not expected to be too heavy through the end of the forecast period other than at CSG. However, due to the expected moisture levels in the boundary layer, vsbys may be further limited by fog. Winds will be very light, although SE winds will begin to increase at the end of the period. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium for timing of rain onset along with cig heights and vsbys in rain, high for other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 56 73 60 75 / 0 70 100 100 Atlanta 60 70 62 77 / 10 70 90 100 Blairsville 52 68 56 70 / 0 60 90 100 Cartersville 57 71 60 77 / 10 80 90 90 Columbus 63 76 66 80 / 30 70 90 100 Gainesville 57 70 61 73 / 0 60 90 100 Macon 61 75 64 78 / 20 70 90 100 Rome 57 71 62 78 / 10 70 90 100 Peachtree City 59 71 62 79 / 20 80 90 100 Vidalia 64 80 67 80 / 10 60 90 100 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...SEC