####018007049#### FXUS63 KGLD 071106 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 406 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog/Freezing Fog, some of which may be dense, this morning along and west of a Hitchcock to Wichita county line. A 10% chance of isolated freezing drizzle as well. May form a film of ice on bridges. - Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming trend and breezy winds Monday and Tuesday. - Cooler weather will return after Wednesday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 A weak cold front is moving into the forecast area with stratus occurring just behind it. Have actually increased low temperatures for the night across the northeast as the cloud cover should help to insulate the surface and keep temperatures from falling to much. To the west of the stratus (mainly along and west of a Hitchcock to Wichita county line) could see some fog develop along and just behind the front as it continues to move to the southwest. Further west of that some subtle moisture advection is ongoing and is forecast to lead to additional fog development as well. Should any of this fog form then freezing fog will become a concern leading to slick roadways especially elevated surfaces. Some of this fog may be dense but as what the similar discussion mentioned the overall depth of the saturation level isn't overly impressive or very shallow. Do think there will be some isolated instances of dense fog however. Am continuing to see some weak surface omega around 1 microbars along with isentropic lift in the 285K level leading to some concern that freezing drizzle could be in store for counties mainly along the Kansas/Colorado state line and as far east as Highway 25 but that will be dependent on how far west the front does end up pushing. Using REFS ensemble soundings the majority of the members keeps the entire profile below the 0C line with the average being -0.7C so still very close; but overall further lowers my confidence in freezing drizzle occurring this morning. Confidence in freezing drizzle is around 10% so will leave out of the forecast for now but will keep a close eye on the potential. Fog and stratus is forecast to move out of the area from west to east through the day and finally being out of the area by the late afternoon as a weak surface trough moves in from the west. Along the leading edge of the surface trough some additional lift around 750- 700mb may lead to some flurries or isolated light snow showers through the late morning favoring eastern portions of the area. Winds may become a little breezy across western portions of the forecast area gusting 25-30 mph. Highs for the day are forecast in the in the mid 30s across the east which are forecast to be engulfed in clouds for the majority of the the day to the mid 40s across eastern Colorado. Sunday night and into Monday morning appears to be tranquil as drier surface moisture again moves into the area. Some mid level cloud cover may develop with a weak disturbance but no impacts are anticipated at this time as low temperatures fall into the low 20s to upper teens across the area. Monday, another surface trough is forecast to be co-located across northern portions of the forecast area with breezy sustained winds around 15-25 mph gusting 35 mph during the afternoon. This is also forecast to be start of a few days of above normal temperatures as highs are forecast in the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Overall a tranquil mild day is in store for the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 Starting the extended period Tuesday, mild temperatures continue for the area with highs in the 60s as winds become more westerly promoting downsloping. Winds however are forecast to become breezy to gusty with some gusts up to 45 mph during the afternoon. A strong clipper system across the northern Plains is forecast to send a cold front through the day through the mid to late evening hours on Tuesday night bringing a chilly start to the morning on Wednesday. However another surface trough is forecast to impact the area Wednesday afternoon with downsloping winds helping temperatures warm back into the upper 40s to low 50s. Some light precipitation may occur across northern portions of the forecast area with rain during the day when temperatures warm back above freezing and then becoming a rain/snow mix during the night. At this time the better forcing looks to remain north of the area so little to no accumulation is expected and any impacts would be minimal. Late week, yet another clipper system is forecast to move across the northern Plains but be a little further south than the previous one and accompanying with it a stronger cold front. precipitation chances look a bit more optimistic with this system but still tons of discrepancies are seen between each of the members of the GEFS, ECWMF and ECMWF-AIFS on the amount of moisture present and the trek of a shortwave, with the GEFS a bit more optimistic on precipitation coverage due to more ensemble guidance moving the shortwave over the forecast area. However any snow output on the members that do produce precipitation looks to be light. This is also further supported by the 00Z run of the LREF with around a 30% chance for 0- 1 inches of snowfall. Much colder air is looking more and more likely with this system as high temperatures Friday may struggle to get out of the 20s across much if not all of the area as 850mb temperatures fall into the -8 to -12C range across the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 402 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 Stratus continues for each terminal. Ceilings have not dropped as much as initially anticipated so have gone a little less aggressive until it can prove otherwise. MVFR to periods of IFR ceilings are still forecast with a 10% chance of ceilings falling to LIFR for either terminal. Latest guidance has backed off a little bit with the fog for either terminal but the potential still remains especially for GLD so will maintain the tempo as some new cloud development has begun near ITR so perhaps this is the start. Should fog develop for either terminal it would be freezing resulting in light icing. Stratus and any fog will end west to east through the day. Be aware for shifting winds as well as an eventual transition to southwesterly is forecast by the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg ####018009872#### FXUS65 KCYS 071107 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 407 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Arlington and Bordeaux areas through the early afternoon today. - Scattered snow showers will move through the area through midday Sunday. - After a potential short lull, high winds return Sunday night into Monday for the wind prone areas. - Another quick around of mountain snow is expected tonight into early Monday morning. - A long duration, significant high wind event is increasingly likely beginning Monday night and lasting until Wednesday or even Thursday. - There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast between late Wednesday and Friday due to an arctic cold front that will stall very near or over our area. A small shift in the front location will mean wildly different outcomes. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 415 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 The active northwest flow pattern continues this morning across the area. Current GOES satellite imagery in the water vapor channel shows elevated moisture/cloud cover associated with an elongated vort-max currently traversing across the area. This is producing a renewed surge of scattered snow shower activity. A weak stratospheric intrusion accompanies this feature, pulling the tropopause down to about 400-mb and helping to support quite chilly temperatures in the upper atmosphere. As a result, lapse rates remain quite steep this morning, indicating that the potential for locally intense snow showers or low-end snow squalls will continue for several hours longer. After around 9AM, models show a region of mid-level dry air working in over the area which will also help warm temperatures aloft. Low-level lapse rates remain steep after that, but snow shower activity into this afternoon should be fairly low- topped and thus probably more just flurry activity instead of something causing travel impacts. Other than the snow showers, the passing vort-max is also bringing with it a subtle surface trough dragging across the High Plains. This is elevating the pressure gradient across the area again, although today's high wind parameters look much more marginal than the last few events. So far, wind gusts have only been around 40 to 45 mph, but gradients are still climbing and should peak shortly after sunrise. We should get a short break in the high wind potential this afternoon and into the early evening hours as MSLP rises over the High Plains. The break from the wind will be short-lived as pressure should start to fall over the Plains once again late this evening. MSLP and 700- mb height gradients are more robust late tonight into Monday. High wind probabilities in this next round are around 50 to 70% at this time. This will be moving along with another broad, vort-max aloft. The upper level feature will be accompanied by a renewed surge in mid-level moisture (currently visible over Oregon and Washington on GOES water vapor imagery). Moisture laden northwest winds will lead to another round of mountain snowfall beginning this evening and lasting into early Monday morning. The window will be fairly short, but snowfall rates could be sufficient to put down another 6 to 12 inches of snow, especially in the Snowy Range. Will wait until the Winter Storm Warning expires to issue, but a Winter Weather Advisory may be warranted for tonight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 415 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 There may be a brief break in the high wind potential Monday afternoon or early evening, but wind parameters begin to ramp up dramatically during the evening hours. A much more powerful upper level low will race in from the northwest on the nose of a 150+ knot jet streak aloft. While its track should remain well to our north, it will send MSLP and low-level height gradients surging. By daybreak Tuesday, LREF median 700-mb winds exceed 65 knots over much of southeast Wyoming. The GFS indicates Craig to Casper 700-mb height gradients reaching 90 meters, which is a fairly exceptionally high value. The GFS continues to run a little hot compared to most other models, but this is still work a discussion. The model consensus scenario still supports a mid to upper tier wind event beginning late Monday evening and continuing through the day Tuesday. We will also be located in the right exit region of the upper level jet streak, which supports large-scale descent and should help get strong winds down to the surface. Forecast soundings show a fairly strong inversion between about 600 and 700-mb, which is just a little above mountain top height for our area. Winds fairly constant through and above the inversion layer suggest the potential for vertically propagating mountain wave activity which could enhance surface winds in the immediate lee of the Snowy and Laramie ranges. Confidence is very high in high winds for the wind prone and adjacent zones, even though we are still a few days out still. This event has the potential to be an upper tier event, meaning the wind prone areas could see gusts of 90 mph, although confidence in reaching that mark is medium at this time. For now, the official forecast was nudged towards the NBM 90th percentile to get a mention of 75 to 80 mph, which has fairly good confidence. A strong stationary frontal boundary will be stalled underneath the jet stream aloft during much of the week ahead. It's exact position is expected to waffle back and forth, surging southward behind the passage of shortwave troughs aloft, and then pressing northward again in between shortwaves. Once the first shortwave trough axis passes through Tuesday afternoon or evening, we will see the boundary push southward. Pressure gradients will begin to fall off slightly Tuesday evening into early Wednesday as a surface high traverses over the western edge of the High Plains. Even so, the GFS has high wind parameters minimizing early Wednesday morning at values still supportive of marginal high winds for the Arlington/Elk Mountain area. If the surface high manages to push up against the Laramie range, we should see a break in winds at Bordeaux and the I- 80 summit, but Arlington could continue straight on through. At the same time, the front pushing southward will bring stronger frontogenesis into the area, kicking up chances for rain and snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Most models then show the ridge amplifying once again Wednesday morning, nudging the frontal boundary back to just northeast of the area, and sending wind speeds surging once again. This second period for wind on Wednesday into Wednesday night has lower confidence, but currently has similar high-end potential to the earlier event Monday night into Tuesday. The more the ridge amplifies, the higher wind speeds could get during this period. After Wednesday, model consensus collapses. While essentially all ensemble members agree that we will remain in an active northwest flow pattern, there are subtle differences in the strength and amplitude of the upper level ridge over the western CONUS. Just a small difference in this feature would shift the location of the stalled frontal boundary by a few hundred miles, and lead to wildly different outcomes for our local weather. The weaker ridge scenario, generally supported by the GEFS, would allow for the arctic front to push right up against the Laramie Range by Thursday morning, sending temperatures plummeting for both Thursday and Friday. In addition, intense frontogenesis is expected to remain along the stalled frontal boundary, supporting moderate snowfall wherever this ends up. If the front stalls over our area, there is the potential for significant snowfall with strong forcing stalling for a day or two over the same area. The other scenario features a slightly more amplified ridge, and is generally supported by the ECMWF ensemble. This would lead to much warmer and drier conditions for most of the area, but also come with an extension of the high wind event into Thursday. The colder scenario would lead to highs in the teens and snow on Friday for most of the High Plains, while the warmer scenario would mean highs in the 40s or even 50s and strong winds. Ensembles are split nearly 50/50 at this time, so the official forecast splits the difference. Past experience suggests that the arctic front usually wins in these scenarios, but that is not enough to push the needle just yet. We would like to see a little bit more model consensus before committing to one scenario or the other. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 A backdoor cold front has pushed low CIGs and patchy fog into the Nebraska panhandle, which will lead to periods of LIFR and IFR conditions into Sunday morning. In addition, isolated snow showers still linger over the area, and a quick drop in VIS cannot be ruled out through Sunday morning. Drier conditions will work into the area midday Sunday, but gusty west to northwest winds will continue. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ106-110. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for WYZ112-114. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...RZ AVIATION...MN ####018004604#### FXUS64 KEWX 071107 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 507 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to areas of fog mainly to the east of the I-35 corridor this morning - Dry cold front passages expected today and again towards early Friday with warmer air ahead of the fronts, and cooler air in wake of the fronts && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Patchy to areas of fog, possibly becoming locally dense, will be possible into this morning for areas primarily to the east of the I-35 corridor, where calm winds and higher dewpoints reside. Mostly clear skies will continue elsewhere. Expect winds to really ramp up by midday as a front progresses through our area from north to south. This front will help to clear out the fog in the Coastal Plains as well as help to limit high temps to the mid to upper 60s for those north of the front. Those further south can expect another mild day with highs topping out in the low to upper 70s. Expect winds to relax as mixing decreases and winds decouple towards evening and temps to plummet with many areas in the Hill Country dropping into the 30s with those across the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains and areas south dipping into the low 40s. By Monday We continue to see some weak CAA preventing temps from rising much and staying in the low 60s for areas east of I-10 and mid to upper 60s west. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 For the long term, expect advective cooling continuing into Monday night with north winds followed by radiational cooling heading into Tuesday morning given clear skies and light winds. This will make temperatures pretty chilly around sunrise, where some rural locations may near the freezing mark. However, it looks to be quite limited and for most, locations that have already experienced a light freeze this season. Elsewhere, mid 30s to low 40s can be expected. By Tuesday surface winds return to a more southerly direction allowing for a boost to temps back above normal with many areas in the mid to upper 60s possibly approaching 70 in a few spots. By Wednesday and Thursday low level southerly flow really ramps up allowing highs to soar into the upper 70s to near 80 Wednesday and into the low 80s by Thursday. Lows during this period will also be much more mild with many areas staying in the low 50s. Our next front then approaches sometime around Friday morning. It looks to remain rain free like the front moving through this Sunday and brings a slightly cooler airmass to the area into the start of the next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 IFR to LIFR ceilings and some reductions in visibility continue this morning for locations mainly east of the I-35 corridor. For the areas farther to the north and west, conditions are VFR under mostly clear skies. Flight conditions improve by or through the mid-morning hours. Otherwise, a front will be advancing southward through the region from this morning into the afternoon. It will be possible that a patch of some post-frontal low to mid-level clouds advance through northeastern portions of the region, including the Austin metro area. Otherwise, gusty northerly winds will establish behind the front with peak gusts into the 25 kt range. Winds subside after sunset into Monday morning with skies trending mostly clear. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 67 39 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 38 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 39 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 61 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 40 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 39 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 39 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 43 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 44 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...62 ####018007384#### FXUS61 KALY 071107 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 607 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and chilly conditions today will give way to areas of light snow tonight as a clipper quickly moves through the region. Behind this system, cold and blustery conditions are expected on Monday. Additional chances of rain and snow are expected through the upcoming week as we remain locked in an unsettled weather pattern. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Fast moving low pressure will bring a period of accumulating snow this evening through tonight. NBM probabilities for seeing 1" or snow or greater are highest (60-100%) for the western and central Adirondacks and far western Mohawk Valley. Discussion: As of 100 AM, high pressure was centered across the Southeast, with a cold front to our north and west across Ontario and eastern Great Lakes. Light snow showers were occurring along and ahead of the front, though coverage was rather sparse as moisture was lacking with the front. Temperatures as of this writing were in the 20s to low 30s Through daytime today, the cold front will continue to move south across the region, and is progged to reach southern New England and northern Pennsylvania by mid-morning. This will allow for an influx of colder air and morning lows to drop into the single digits to low 20s. Dry conditions are also expected, with areas across the Mid Hudson Valley also seeing breaks of sunshine. Clouds will fill back in through the morning into early afternoon with the arrival of a weak clipper system from the west late this afternoon into early tonight. As advertised in the previous AFD, this system is weak in nature w.r.t. forcing with a track favored mainly across the North Country and Lake Ontario. This will result in the best forcing and moisture being displaced north of the area, limiting total QPF for eastern New York and western New England. Latest NBM remains on track for snow accumulations of around 1-3 inches mainly for high elevation locations in the western/southern ADKs and southern Greens, with lesser amounts across the Mohawk Valley and Lake George-Saratoga regions. Outside of here, little to no accumulation of snow is expected. While some locally slippery spots are possible over the ADKs, most areas won't be seeing any impacts. Colder air will return for Monday as high pressure quickly moves across the region. It will be blustery as well with northwest winds initially gusting around 20-30 MPH before subsiding for the afternoon and evening. Despite the sunshine, highs will struggle to climb into the teens to mid 20s (potentially colder at higher elevations), with overnight lows falling near to below zero. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the high will quickly depart to our east with weak southerly flow behind it, though temperatures will remain chilly with highs only in the 20s. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of another clipper system taking aim at the region, which looks to mainly impact the region Tuesday night. Similar to the last system, a track more north of the region will limit total QPF for us as favorable lift and moisture will be displaced more into Canada and the North Country. A few inches of snow will be possible once again mainly across the western/central ADKs and Mohawk Valley, with little to now accumulation elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message: - Several chances of rain/snow in the long term as an active flow regime remains near the region Discussion: Strong polar jet stream will remain near to just south of the region through the duration of the long term period, with several shortwaves/troughs progged to track along it. This will keep the region under the gun for several chances of precipitation from mid- week into next weekend. On the heels of our Tuesday clipper, another clipper will arrive across the region Wednesday. This one looks to be stronger with a positively tilted shortwave and surface low, which is favored by majority of guidance to track near to just north of the region. Forecast soundings suggest more available moisture with this clipper and more robust forcing, which will result in higher chances (currently 50-90%) of precipitation for eastern New York and western New England. Little change with regard to the system evolution has been noted with this forecast update, with all locations seeing snow initially before a transition to rain/snow and all rain occurs Wednesday morning and afternoon. NBM continues to advertise a low to medium probability (40-50%) of at least a coating of snow areawide before the transition to rain in valley locations, with low to medium probability of amounts greater than 1" (40-60%) mainly in higher terrain locations. We will quiet down briefly to close out the work week, though some low chance POPs remain in the forecast (10-30%) as several weak shortwaves track across the region in northwest flow. It will be cooler as well with daytime highs and lows favored to remain below normal. There is potential for another system to impact the region late Thursday and Friday, but models remain quite variable on the track and strength of it, resulting in low confidence in evolution at this time. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...High pressure builds in this morning with mainly VFR conditions with cigs bkn-ovc 3.5-5 kft AGL KALB-KPSF northward to KGFL. High MVFR clouds may be briefly near KPSF. Some scattered clouds are near KPOU. The flight conditions should be VFR most of the morning into the early-mid afternoon. The next clipper and cold front approach the TAF sites in the late afternoon/early evening with cloud bases lowering to low VFR/MVFR KALB-KPSF northward with some PROB30 groups with snow showers with MVFR/spotty IFR vsbys KALB-KPSF northward 20Z/Sun to 00Z/Mon. The snow showers should diminish shortly after 00Z/Mon at KALB/KPSF but may linger until 04Z/Mon for KGFL with IFR/MVFR conditions. Flight conditions will improve to VFR between 02Z-06Z/Mon at the TAF with the winds increasing in the wake of the front. The winds will increase from the southeast to south at 4-8 KT in the late morning into the afternoon. The winds will shift to west/southwest in the early evening at 8-12 KT with some gusts 15-20 KT. The winds will further veer to the northwest 03Z-06Z/Mon at 10-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT especially at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...17 SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...15 ####018005764#### FXUS64 KLUB 071109 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 509 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 441 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Cool weather is expected today, followed by a warm-up through the middle of the week. - Chilly weather returns by Friday following the passage of a strong cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, a broad, longwave trough continues to move slowly eastward over the central and eastern half of the U.S., with the backside of the trough now emerging over the Rocky Mountains and into the High Plains. Farther west, a subtropical ridge over the northeastern Pacific Ocean was gradually amplifying over, which will cause the longwave trough to continue shifting eastward while also attenuating in amplitude over the next 24+ hours. A shortwave impulse was detected on water-vapor imagery over the central Rocky Mountains, and this impulse will continue to surge southeastward along the leading edge of a 300 mb jet streak near 100 kt and ultimately reinforce the passage of the synoptic cold front across the region today. At the surface, a weak cyclone was located between CDS and VUF (6666 Ranch) on WTM data, with another night of a meso-beta-scale cold front extending to its south along the immediate lee of the Caprock Escarpment. A backdoor-like, quasi-stationary front, which was previously the inverted, post-frontal surface trough trailing the prior meso-beta-scale cold front from last night, was oozing westward along the Upper Red River Valley. Adiabatic expansion associated with the easterly flow has resulted in rapid saturation of the airmass, with the ASOS at CDS reporting ceilings down to 200 ft and visibility of one-half mile. As stated in the forecast update issued at 07/0232Z, prospects for fog will increase across the rest of the Rolling Plains through sunrise. However, coverage of fog was increased across the eastern column of counties, and it is possible that a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed at some point before sunrise for those locales. The surface low will continue to rotate southeastward, and the respective meso-beta-scale fronts, in addition to the backdoor-like, quasi-stationary front, will be overtaken by the synoptic cold front later this morning. Fog should dissipate quickly after sunrise, as surface winds shift northward and drier air (typical of katafronts) advects into the CWA. Post-frontal mixing heights will ascend above 700 mb by solar noon, with a strong subsidence layer descending over W TX following the passage of the shortwave impulse. Temperatures were lowered to the cooler side of the statistical guidance, with highs expected to peak in the middle 50s area-wide. Winds will become light and variable overnight into Monday morning, with lows bottoming out in the middle-upper 20s for most as the post-frontal surface high settles into the region. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Confluent flow will persist over W TX Monday, as the longwave trough further attenuates while crossing over the Eastern Seaboard, which will allow the subtropical ridge to continue to amplify and shift eastward over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. An intense jet streak will arc through the apex of the ridge that will be centered over the 49th parallel, inducing large-scale pressure falls across the Great Plains and resulting in a restoration of southwesterly winds across the CWA. Temperatures will gradually warm in response to the return flow, with highs peaking in the lower-middle 60s area-wide Monday. Meanwhile, a compact, fast-moving, shortwave trough is forecast to translate through the apex of the subtropical ridge following the completion of a high-latitude, anticyclonic wave break over the far northern Pacific Ocean. Leeward pressure falls will steepen slightly more compared to Monday as cyclogenesis occurs in the vicinity of the MN River Valley, with winds forecast to veer westward and become breezy Tuesday. The emergence of this shortwave trough into the Great Lakes region will also result in the return of broadly cyclonic flow over the MS River Valley while also modulating the amplitude of the ridging to the west, with the attendant cold front forecast to arrive by early Wednesday morning as it begins to weaken. Slightly cooler weather will follow Wednesday, but only by a couple of degrees, as the already weak CAA will cease quickly, with winds transitioning to the south by Wednesday night. Additional series of shortwave troughs are forecast to propagate southeastward along the upstream tranche of the longer-wave trough by the end of the week, with a strong cold front, accompanied by a modifying cP airmass, arriving by Thursday afternoon. This is a faster progression compared to 24 hours ago, but the bulk of the global NWP guidance reflects this earlier timing, and NBM has followed suit. Adjustments to the temperatures for Thursday may be needed in the next couple of days; however, confidence is high in the return for chilly weather by Friday and into next weekend, with no signs of precipitation. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 441 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51 ####018007315#### FXUS61 KBTV 071109 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 609 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper system will bring widespread light snowfall this afternoon and tonight. A coating to a few inches of snow is expected. Colder conditions return for Monday and Monday night, while unsettled weather continues through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 452 AM EST Sunday...Snow showers continue across portions of the region early this morning, with reflectivities reinvigorating a bit in the southern Champlain Valley. Webcams also indicate some flurries falling in the higher elevations of the central Greens and Adirondacks. This should dissipate as we head through the morning hours, but have gone ahead and increased PoPs in these areas just to show isolated/scattered activity through daybreak. Any snow accumulation will be light. Otherwise, based on current satellite imagery, cloud cover looks to remain fairly widespread, with any partly cloudy skies staying limited to northern VT, especially east of the Greens. Cloud cover forecast has also been updated to match these trends. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed. Previous discussion...A thin band of moderate to very briefly heavy snow showers continues to slowly sink southward across the region early this morning. It should gradually wane in intensity and coverage as it pushes through the Adirondacks and the central/southern Greens, with any snow accumulations generally an inch or less. Better chances for snow arrive this afternoon as a weak clipper low pressure system slides along the boundary. Neither forcing nor moisture are overly impressive with this system, so anticipate just light snow to overspread the area from west to east this afternoon into the evening hours. Snow persists through the first part of the overnight, but it will quickly taper to mountain snow showers as the low pushes to our east by midnight tonight. Overall snow accumulation will be 1 to 4 inches, highest in the Adirondacks and northern/central Greens. Winds will be light through the day as the low moves directly overhead, but they will increase overnight tonight as cold air advection sets up behind the low. Hence there could be a bit of blowing snow in more open areas. Temperatures will fall as well; after daytime highs in the upper teens to upper 20s, expect temperatures to drop into the single digits by early Monday morning. The combination of fresh snow cover, patchy blowing snow, and falling road temperatures could make for a slippery Monday morning commute. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 101 AM EST Sunday...Other than a few lingering snow showers across the northern Greens and Northeast Kingdom, expect Monday to be dry under decreasing clouds. Cold air advection will continue on breezy north/northwest winds. Highs will only reach into the 10F to 20F range; when combined with winds gusting to 20 mph, wind chills will remain near to below zero for much of the day. The higher elevations will be even colder as wind chills remain below -20F. Bitterly cold conditions will continue Monday night as high pressure settles directly over the region. With fresh snow cover and light winds, radiational cooling will be optimal. The only potential snag will be increasing high clouds, but current thinking is they'll be thin and/or patchy enough to limit their impact on overnight temperatures. Lows of -10F to +5F seem reasonable at this point, with some of our usual cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks potentially approaching -15F. High pressure shifts to the east on Tuesday, making way for another clipper system approaching from the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase through the day, but the bulk of precipitation will hold off until late Tuesday afternoon. A turn toward south flow will allow temperatures to warm into the 20s, with a few spots hitting 30F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 101 AM EST Sunday...An active northwest flow longwave pattern continues through the period with several, albeit mainly weak northern stream shortwave troughs swinging through our area in the Wednesday-Sunday time frame. The strongest of these affects our region Wed/Wed evening with a climo-favored track through the SLV. As such, a mixed light rain/light snow scenario will likely unfold through these periods with latest probabilistic data, including most recent NBM runs concurring. QPF should be relatively light to modest, but a few inches of additional snowfall should be likely, especially in areas outside the broad valleys where boundary layer warming and brisk southerly flow will likely put a cap on totals. Thereafter, a general trend toward colder weather arrives for the late week time frame with on and off chances for light snow showers/flurries, most favored in the northern higher terrain. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...BKN/OVC VFR cigs in the 040-060 AGL range this morning to lower to MVFR with IFR visibilities at most terminals this afternoon as light snows develop in the 18-22Z time frame from west to east. Snows to taper off fairly quickly this evening in the 01-05Z time range though with lingering MVFR cigs into the overnight hours. Winds mainly light northerly at 5 kts or less through 00Z, trending northwesterly 5 to 10 kts thereafter. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SN, Definite RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do not currently have an estimated return to service for this station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...Team BTV ####018006727#### FXUS65 KTFX 071109 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 409 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily snowfall is expected in the mountains, with light snowfall possible mid week at lower elevations. - Cold air will retreat northward today, but move back south later this week. - Strong winds likely Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Expect the weather pattern to generally change every few days over the CWA, as cold air moves north/southward this week, along with periods of snow. As of 3 AM this morning, the warm front was now along a line from Cut Bank to Carter to Lewistown, and slowly moving northward. This warm front should move into the northern portions of Hill/Blaine counties by this evening. Some scattered light snow showers are falling along the divide, but downslope winds east of the divide are limiting how far the precip is moving off the mountains. Thus, expect above normal temperatures over much of the CWA today, as warmer air continues to move in from the south. On Monday, a strong area of low pressure will start to move from west to east across southern Canada. This will result in the potential for strong winds to develop along the front range of the Rockies by late Monday afternoon. The strong winds will then move eastward over the Plains Monday night, and exit the area on Tuesday morning. Overall, the timing is not great for mixing down the strong winds, however, the potential is there. Thus a high wind watch was issued for much of North Central MT. Above normal temperatures are expected once again on Monday. On Tuesday, the strong winds will diminish in the morning, as surface winds switch around to the north. After Tue morning, the forecast models start to differ on how far/fast the cold air will move south. The GFS model is the most aggressive and likely the coldest model. Since the cold air is not going to go very far north of MT on Monday, this is a reasonable solution. As of now though, the NBM does not bring in the colder air until Wed. For Thur/Fri...expect generally below normal temperatures across the CWA...with the potential for cold weather advisory conditions along the US/Canadian border. Additionally, periods of snow at all elevations are possible. At this time, snow amounts look light at low elevations, but with the northerly upslope, some areas could see a bit heavier snowfall than currently forecasted. For next weekend, the forecast models would like the cold air to retreat northward once again. However, caution is urged in the temperature forecast for next weekend, as sometimes the cold air is quite slow to move out, and does not move out as quickly as the forecast models like several days out. Note...for the mountain areas of the Rocky Mountain Front, Southwest MT and the Kings Hill area, there will be daily chances for snowfall from Monday through Friday. When the cold air moves south mid week, the snowfall could be heavy at times in the mountains. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Winds: The main concern for the high winds is if the strong winds aloft will mix down during the overnight period Monday night into Tue morning. The NBM probability of wind gusts over 60 mph has increased to nearly 80 percent over the Plains and near 90 percent along the Rocky Mountain Front. The chance for 75 mph wind gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front is also near 80 percent in the windier locations. Snow: Snow will be heavy at times in the mountains along the Rocky Mountain Front, Southwest MT and the Kings Hill area. At this time the heavy snow is mostly expected above pass level through Tuesday morning, with lighter snowfalls around pass level. Thus the current thinking is that a winter weather advisory might be needed for a portion of this period. For Tue afternoon into Thu, snow levels lower with the colder air moving in. Thus the potential for heavy snow will also lower. It is possible a winter storm warning might be needed later this week for some mountain ranges. By the end of the week, lighter snowfall returns to the mountain ranges. Overall, snowfall in the mountains above pass level could average between 6 and 12 inches daily for some mountain ranges. At pass level, several days of 2 to 5 inch snowfalls are likely. Thus after several days of this type of snowfall, impacts will start to develop. Cold: The cold air retreats today, but returns by mid week. By late in the work week, it could be cold enough along and north of the Highway 2 corridor from Browning to Harlem, that a cold weather advisory might be needed for portions of this area. Brusda && .AVIATION... 07/06Z TAF Period Initial concern this TAF period will be for some lingering fog around Cut Bank as well as some light snow in the Havre area. Both of these should diminish later tonight. Additional snow showers are attempting to cross the Continental Divide this evening, but have found little success thus far. Otherwise the primary concern through the rest of the night and into the day Sunday will be for increasing surface winds. Some LLWS will be around in areas over the plains where surface winds are slow to increase tonight. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 41 35 48 41 / 10 20 10 30 CTB 38 27 42 33 / 0 10 10 40 HLN 42 32 47 39 / 20 30 20 50 BZN 39 27 45 36 / 10 20 10 30 WYS 29 21 33 26 / 60 70 60 80 DLN 40 29 44 37 / 10 20 0 30 HVR 35 25 42 30 / 0 10 0 40 LWT 39 28 43 32 / 0 20 10 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains- Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains- Madison River Valley-Meagher County Valleys-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018007325#### FXUS63 KDVN 071110 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 510 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow is forecast to linger across the area through 6 AM before quickly coming to an end. - An active weather pattern is forecast to continue through the upcoming week with several disturbances passing near the area bringing potential chances for precipitation. - Another surge of arctic air will settle into the Midwest for the end of next week and weekend following the passage of the Thursday clipper system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 At 2 AM, the main surface low has shifted to our southeast with winds becoming more northerly across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois allowing precipitation to transition to widespread snow especially south of Interstate 80 after a brief mixing with sleet up to Interstate 80 overnight. Precipitation is forecast to slowly move to the east this morning and exit the area potential by 6 AM. For this reason, will leave the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM. Gusty north winds are forecast to continue into early this afternoon with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. The snow appeared to be wetter overnight which may limit the low level drifting that will occur with these wind speeds. It will be cold today with temperatures in the upper teens from Independence to Dubuque to upper 20s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. Deep northwest flow aloft continues into the upcoming work week and another weak shortwave is forecast to move across the area Sunday night into Monday morning this will mainly bring an increase in cloud cover across the area overnight. CAMs do show diminishing snow spreading into parts of east central Iowa after 9 UTC (3 AM) Monday and added light snow and flurries west of a Cedar Rapids to Manchester Iowa line. Accumulation is not expected. It will be cold Monday morning with low temperatures ranging from near 0 north of a Cedar Rapids to Freeport line to the upper single digits above zero in far southeast Iowa, far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Wind chill values on Monday morning will be as cold as -10 north of Highway 30 or north of Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling Rock Falls line. High presssure is forecast to quickly build into the area on Monday and bring quiet weather to the area. However skies will remain cloudy through the day. High temperatures on Monday will be in the mid to upper 20s once again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Monday night/Tuesday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of a clipper system side-swiping parts of the area. The next clipper system races through the Midwest and Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday morning. The better forcing and moisture is well north of the area. Thus right now it appears that areas east of a Manchester, IA to Princeton, IL line will get a period of flurries or at worst several hours of light snow. The model consensus currently has 20-25% pops for the area. If the light snow scenario would occur, accumulations would be a dusting at worst. Tuesday night through Thursday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence of two additional systems. Low (20-30%) confidence regarding precipitation type for the first system. Another clipper system moves through the Midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Like the previous system the models project the track to be north of the area. However, the track is further south than the previous system. Such a track would put the area initially on the warm side of the system until the low passes. Being on the warm side of the system raises questions regarding precipitation type. Thermal profiles of the atmosphere suggest the precipitation may initially develop as rain or possibly a rain/snow mix. If the precipitation arrives shortly after sunset (suggested by all models), then rain would be the primary precipitation type until the atmosphere cools and allows a rain/snow mix to develop later in the evening and much of the overnight hours. Once the low passes, cold advection will quickly change any mix over to all snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning but accumulations right now look to be a dusting at best. The cold advection looks impressive with winds of 15-25 mph expected and potential gusts of 30-35 mph. The diurnal recovery of temperatures on Wednesday will be minimal from the overnight lows. Following almost immediately on the heels of the second clipper system will be a hybrid clipper/colorado low system that arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. The more southern track of this system means there is a high (>80%) probability of seeing another round of accumulating snow. Given the proximity of this system with the previous clipper system, there will not be much moisture in place ahead of the system. Thus the moisture associated with the system will be what is available for precipitation production. While there are timing differences, there is loose agreement that the precipitation will be arriving after sunset. Thus with the atmosphere cooling, the precipitation type will be in the form of snow. While not certain, this snow will have a medium to high (60-80%) probability of being the dry, fluffy type. Thus the rain/snow ratio will be minimally in the 12-15 to 1 range. Given the limited system moisture, snowfall amounts generally look to be light. Thursday night through Saturday Assessment...A certainty (>98%) of another round of arctic air for the Midwest Lingering light snow/flurries will end Thursday evening as the system departs the area. Behind the system, another surge of arctic air will move into the Midwest keeping temperatures well below normal for the end of the week and next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Tonights storm system is exiting to the east with TAF sites varying between VFR and IFR conditions early this morning. Rapid improvement to VFR conditions is expected at TAF sits through 15 UTC with improvement not expected at KBRL until 18 UTC. Gusty north winds with gusts up to 20 knots will continue into the early afternoon before slowly diminishing. Another storm system is forecast to move across the area after 00 UTC on Monday and bringing in lowering ceilings after 06 UTC. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ042-065-067-068-078. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ053-054-066. IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ILZ001-002-015>018-024>026-034-035. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for ILZ007-009. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Cousins