####018007835#### FXUS62 KMHX 100657 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 257 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through the area late today and tonight, followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Fri...Latest analysis shows weak sfc low and attendant fronts draped through the Mid-Atlantic and back through the Gulf States, as potent MCS continues to push through southern MS/AL early this morning. Sfc low will continue to strengthen to the north today as cold front approaches eastern NC. The environment seems to be more favorable for convection this afternoon and evening, with potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded the southern portions of the area to a Slight Risk of svr wx this afternoon and evening. Unlike the last few days, CAMs are in pretty good agreement with the timing and placement of convection, showing scattered to numerous showers and storms developing after 18z, with best coverage across the southern half of the forecast area. Stronger forcing expected today with shortwave trough moving through, sfc cold front and the seabreeze. Despite the marginal instability (ML CAPEs 500-1000 J/kg), strong deep layer shear 40-50 kt, and mid level lapse rates 6.5-7 C/km, will support the threat for organized storms...with primary threats of damaging winds and hail. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will also be possible, which most of the area could certainly use. Timing of stronger storms looks to be be between 3-10 PM. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Fri...Svr threat will likely linger through late evening, with ongoing convection ahead of the cold front. Front will push offshore by midnight, taking convection with it and low level northerly flow developing. Drier and cooler air moving in behind the front late tonight, with dewpoints and lows falling into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As 3 PM Thu...Drier and cooler weather forecast for this weekend as high pressure ridging builds in from the south and west. More unsettled weather then approaches ENC on Tue/Wed. Sat and Sun...Cold front will have pushed offshore by morning with blustery nrly winds in it's wake in the morning. Upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS this weekend while a cutoff upper low over the Four Corners region begins to push E'wards towards the Plains. Yet another shortwave will round the base of this troughing on Saturday before ridging finally begins to build in from the west on Sun. At the surface low pressure with attendant fronts will be diving SE'wards across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before moving offshore on Sun and pulling away from the region while high pressure ridge will gradually build in from the south and west. Capped precip to mostly around 10% with dry downsloping nwrly flow. Cloud cover should mainly be over the coastal locales, esp OBX, but may be some bkn diurnal strato cu all areas with the cold air aloft. Highs only getting into the 70s each day while lows dip down into the 50s each night. Mon through mid week next week...Upper ridging finally builds over the Eastern Seaboard and quickly pushes offshore by Tue as previously mentioned cutoff low opens into a trough and tracks E'wards towards the Mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed. Associated shortwave also quickly pushes E'wards bringing our next threat for unsettled weather to the area around Tue/Wed. As s/w makes its way E'wards surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains with low pressure and its associated fronts quickly approach the Carolinas from the south and west Tue. There remains considerable differences in the exact timing and location of this low next week but it is looking like this will bring our next threat for measurable precip Tue into Wed. Went below NBM guide due to these differences and capped pops at 50% for now. Temps remain about avg across the region next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 AM Fri...VFR currently across the terminals early this morning. Patchy shallow fog possible through sunrise this morning, with best chances at OAJ. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, with best chances at OAJ and EWN, which could lead to periods of sub-VFR. Some stronger storms have the potential to produce damaging winds, hail and locally heavy rain. Precip will push east of the terminals by late this evening, with potential for low stratus advecting in overnight behind the cold front. Right now it looks like stratus may stay E of the terminals. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 320 AM Thu...As we get into the weekend and beyond expecting primarily VFR conditions into the end of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 AM Fri...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. Moderate to breezy SW-W winds 10-20 kt will continue today with seas 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft across the outer central and southern waters. A cold front will push into the waters late afternoon and evening, then offshore tonight. Stronger northerly surge 20-25 kt expected behind the front tonight with seas building to 4-7 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. Went ahead with SCAs for the sounds, coastal waters and Neuse/Bay Rvrs. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to impact the waters this afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe with strong winds, hail and frequent lightning. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 325 AM Thu...More benign weather then forecast this weekend into early next week. At the start of the period widespread 10-15 kt W-SW'rly winds with gusts up around 20 kts will persist across all our waters while 3-5 ft seas will be noted along the coastal waters. As we get into the afternoon and evening, cold front will have pushed offshore but a wave of low pressure will have developed along this front and have begun deepening. This will allow winds to shift from a W-SW direction to a N-NE direction Fri afternoon and evening from N-S with winds increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up around 25-30 kts Fri night. In response to the increased winds, seas will build primarily north of Ocracoke to 4-6 ft once again promoting a brief period of SCA conditions across our waters. N'rly winds will quickly ease on Sat down to 5-10 kts with seas along our coastal waters returning to 3-5 ft and eventually 2-4 ft Sat aftn as the front and deepening low pull further away from our waters. More benign boating conditions are then forecast as winds generally remain at 5-15 kts and seas at 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...CQD/RCF MARINE...CQD/RCF