####018005423#### FXUS62 KCHS 071111 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 611 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will maintain unsettled weather into Monday, then cold high pressure will build in. A reinforcing cold front will move through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... At sunrise: The dense fog threat never really came to fruition overnight. There is probably some patch dense fog in a few places well inland, but certainly nothing widespread. Rain continues to be confined to the GA coast, primarily McIntosh County. Today: Aloft, the pattern will continue to feature southwest flow as a shortwave digs across the Plains and approaches the MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain the primary feature with a front still draped off the Southeast coast, across north FL, and across the northern Gulf. There is good model agreement that the moisture feed and precipitation shield to the south will gradually spread back to the north along the GA coast through the morning. One of the main forecast questions is how far north will the light rainfall spread. Hi-res model consensus and the HREF favors the light precipitation getting as far north as Hinesville, Savannah, and almost up to Beaufort and the Charleston County coast. Additional rainfall amounts will be light with a few hundredths to a tenth along a line from Reidsville to Savannah and Beaufort south, then up to a quarter of an inch across McIntosh County and portions of the GA coast. It will be yet another very chilly and cloudy day with highs only reaching the low 50s for most of the area. Tonight: The shortwave will push east of the lower MS Valley and toward the southern Appalachians. This will drive surface low development across the northeast Gulf as well as off the Southeast coast. Most of the rainfall will remain to the south and southeast along the boundary and associated with the developing surface low. However, we will see an area of light precipitation develop more closely associated with the trough aloft and track across MS, AL, and GA. While these showers will mostly remain west of the forecast area through the overnight, a few showers could get into the far western zones by around sunrise. We will still be in an environment with plenty of low- level moisture so low stratus will persist and we could again see fog development. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered showers will move through Monday morning as the primary shortwave passes by to the northwest. Meanwhile, cool high pressure will build from the west. Tuesday looks fairly cool with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, but temps quickly rebound on Wednesday with highs pushing into the lower 60s in most areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Temperatures will moderate late in the week, then a reinforcing cold front sweeps through Friday. A few showers may accompany the front, followed by much colder air. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The 12z TAF period begins with MVFR conditions at KCHS and KJZI, while KSAV has actually been VFR for a while. Elsewhere, MVFR ceilings are widespread and should fill in at the TAF sites as well. Rain is expected to push back to the north and into KSAV by the early afternoon, while it will likely be just on the doorstep of KJZI and KCHS. KSAV should go back to IFR with the arriving rainfall, while KCHS and KJZI likely remain MVFR through the day. Rain should come to an end at all 3 sites by the late evening. Model guidance then suggests that IFR ceilings will return to all 3 sites after midnight and persist through the end of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: IFR/MVFR ceilings expected to persist through Monday night, then improving to VFR. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: Winds will start off northeast 5-10 knots this morning then gradually become northerly 10-15 knots through the evening. Then overnight, winds will turn more northwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts potentially approaching 20 knots at times. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period. A brief period of Small Craft Advisory winds/seas is possible Monday night over the Charleston nearshore waters and GA offshore waters. The next chance for advisories will be Friday night behind a reinforcing cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Upcoming morning high tide (~9:30 am): At Charleston, the astronomical high tide is 6.47 ft MLLW, meaning that there would need to be a tide departure of at least 0.53 ft to reach the minor coastal flood threshold. The current departure is 0.5 ft and the peak tide is expected to be right around that 7 ft MLLW mark. We will hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory for now and see how observations go over the next hour or two. After the morning high tide there are no more concerns for tidal flooding through the week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...BSH/JRL ####018006758#### FXUS62 KFFC 071111 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 611 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Dense fog will create hazardous travel conditions in north and central Georgia through 10 AM today. - Light rainfall returns to the region Sunday night and Monday morning with amounts in the 0.01 to 0.35 inch range expected. - An additional round of modest rainfall is anticipated in the region Thursday into Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 249 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Dense Fog Concerns: Dense fog will remain a significant concern for travelers and commuters through 10 AM this morning, with the worst conditions expected in north Georgia. Thus a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for all of north and central Georgia. The conditions remain most favorable for fog north of Macon (especially along the Interstate 20 corridor) where cloud free skies and calm winds are producing strong radiational cooling. Fog intensification likely through in this part of the state through 8 AM. South of Macon, where mid level cloud cover exists, conditions for fog maintenance aren't as favorable. Observations also indicated more patchy visibility restrictions in this part of the state as of 230 AM. There is a 40 percent chance that we trim back the southern edge of the Dense Fog Advisory before 8 AM. Along and north of Interstate 20 surface temperatures are in the 29 to 33 degree range this morning. This tosses the specter of freezing fog into the equation. However for freezing fog to impact roadways we need roadway temperatures that are receptive to ice accumulations. The road sensor network is showing road temperatures in the 35 to 40 degree range this morning. This is well above freezing and suggests that ice accretion is unlikely, even on the overpasses and bridges. Dewpoint temperatures are also lower than the road temperatures, and this isn't favorable for sublimation or condensation on the roadways. Given these considerations we do not plan to issue a Freezing Fog Advisory. Additional fog formation is possible tonight or Monday morning. However increasing cloud cover and potential rainfall suggests that widespread dense fog is unlikely. Thus the odds of a Dense Fog Advisory being issued tonight are below 20%. More Rainfall Tonight & Monday: A shortwave will move out of the Southern Plains and race through the Southeast during this period. Lift ahead of this wave should produce a persistent band of light rain in Mississippi and Alabama this evening, and rain will reach Georgia overnight. The moisture profiles for this system to work with look pretty average (PW values of 0.7 to 1.1 inches). This will limit rainfall amounts and it should focus the best rainfall totals over central Georgia. We expect rain totals in the 0.01 to 0.35 inches range by noon on Monday, with the highest amounts anticipated in central Georgia. Thunderstorms and flooding concerns are not expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 249 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Forecast: Monday evening looks as though we may have some cloud cover sticking around in a few areas as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s as colder air moves into the area, including what looks to be some cold air damming from the NE. Skies will clear on Tuesday and we can finally make an attempt to dry out a little bit as surface high pressure sets up over the top of the CWA, even if briefly. Highs will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A stronger shortwave embedded in a deeper Arctic low over the southern Hudson Bay will drive into the midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The surface low will remain well to our north but drive a cold front towards the area sometime Thursday. There continues to be a good bit of uncertainty around this system, with some runs of the models (like the 00Z GFS) coming in completely dry, and others showing precip as the front moves in. Either way, any precip associated with it right now looks as though it would be light and not very impactful. What may be more impactful is the second shortwave coming in behind with a massive 1050+ mb surface high that sets up over the Canadian Plains and spills into the US starting Friday into the weekend. Likely will see some decent cold air if this progresses into our area. Current forecast temps are actually a bit warmer than the NBM 50, and the NBM 10 has an average minimum temperature in the teens across much of north and central Georgia. So the potential exists for a decent shot of cold air if it does progress into us. Definitely worth keeping an eye on this, as this would be some of the coldest air of the season thus far even if the current forecast temps pan out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Widespread dense fog (visibilities below 1/4 mile) will remain the primary aviation hazard through 15Z today. The visibilities and ceilings will improve after 15Z, but a mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings (400 to 3000 ft AGL) will likely linger through 03Z Monday. Light (2 to 6 kt) easterly winds (060 to 120 degrees) will occur through 06Z Monday, then northwest winds will take hold. Light rainfall will return between 03Z and 16Z Monday. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence in continued fog through 15Z, then improving conditions. High confidence in east winds through 06Z Monday. Moderate confidence in lower ceilings and rainfall after 06Z Monday. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 51 39 52 31 / 10 60 30 10 Atlanta 52 42 52 34 / 10 70 10 10 Blairsville 52 36 46 26 / 10 60 30 10 Cartersville 53 40 51 31 / 10 60 10 0 Columbus 55 45 56 34 / 10 60 10 0 Gainesville 51 41 52 33 / 10 60 20 10 Macon 53 43 56 34 / 10 60 20 0 Rome 57 43 54 33 / 10 50 10 0 Peachtree City 53 41 53 32 / 10 70 10 10 Vidalia 54 46 56 34 / 40 30 30 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ001>009- 011>013-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>085-089>097- 102>109. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...Albright ####018007116#### FXUS63 KABR 071113 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 513 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A band of light snow moves west to east today. Less than an inch of accumulation is expected with this system. - Northwest winds Tuesday afternoon into late Tuesday evening could gust in excess of 55 mph. - Some of the coldest air of this winter season could be settling over the area by the end of the week, including high temperatures around or slightly above 0F and low temperatures down into the single digits below to teens below zero and wind chill values Friday morning as low as -20F to -35F. && .UPDATE... Issued at 512 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 306 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Only a short break in precipitation is expected as the next round moves in central and north central South Dakota beginning this morning. This precip will be supported by a jet streak aloft, which will traverse eastward through the day this afternoon and evening, bringing the precip with it. Snow is expected to be the main precipitation type through the event, but there is minor potential for a transition to freezing rain this evening. This would occur due to the upper-levels de-saturating, potentially to the point at which temperatures in the saturated layer could be warm enough to support liquid accumulation aloft. Luckily model guidance shows this would be on the very back end of the system as precip is moving out, meaning that the greatest source of lift will be out of the area and precip rates would be lower. With this being such a marginal possibility, no significant freezing rain potential has been added to the gridded forecast, but also would not be surprised to see it if all the variables come together perfectly. Precipitation is expected to exit northeastern South Dakota around midnight tonight at the latest. In total with this system, only a few hundredths of liquid equivalent are expected, translating to less than an inch of snow across the area. Looking at the latest NBM 90th percentile as a reasonable "worst case" value, QPF values sit around a tenth of an inch. This would translate to between 1"-2" in accumulation. It is worth noting that under a similar pattern yesterday, snow ratios were quite high, so it is possible that we once again will overachieve and come closer to that 90th percentile snowfall. Monday offers a bit of a reprieve from the snow, and conditions are expected to be dry through the day. Another shortwave supporting a low pressure center will come off the upper-level ridge, but this time it will stay to the north of the Aberdeen CWA. The track of the low will allow temperatures to warm up a bit, particularly over central South Dakota. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach the 40s in that area (about 10 degrees above normal for mid-December), with highs decreasing down to the low-30s as you move into northeastern South Dakota. Areas west of the James River are expected to see highs above freezing, so partial to full melting of the snowpack will likely occur. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 When the period opens Monday night, in the middle of a low level WAA event. Much above normal temperatures are expected to persist into Tuesday, with precipitation developing/working west to east across the CWA, particularly north of U.S. Highway 212. Surface temperatures may be at or below freezing to start Tuesday morning, but within a few hours of sun-rise Tuesday, surface temperatures on an efficient westerly mixing layer wind should be warming things up to above freezing while precipitation potential persists. So, the forecast contains a few hours of freezing rain mention before transitioning to rain potential for the rest of the day. The clipper system bringing the warm air and precipitation chances on Tuesday will sweep a strong cold frontal passage through the CWA Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday evening. The combination of already quite strong winds at 0.5km with strong low level CAA and a strong pressure rise/tendency heading into early Tuesday evening supports the potential for headlineable winds. Still too soon to issue a wind headline for Tuesday afternoon/night. But, it is being monitored closely. Not for a blowing snow concern, given all the melting and rain that will have fallen during the day on Tuesday, crusting any remaining snowcover. But, strength of winds may make for rather hazardous traveling conditions. If there is any post cold frontal falling snow to be had across northeast South Dakota Tuesday night, that area could actually see some blowing snow/reduced visibility late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Still more chances for precipitation showing up, potentially Wednesday night into Thursday morning and again by Saturday. Staring to approach 2 standard deviations below normal for 850hpa standardized temperature anomalies in the ENS S.A. data table for Friday. Ensemble-powered forecast low temperatures Thursday night are below zero (0F to ~ -12F) and high temperatures Friday range from ~ -3F to 12F, with Friday night lows dipping down below zero (~ -2F to -15F) again. Wind chill values are forecast to fall to between -20F to -35F heading into Friday morning while winds are forecast to be 10 to 20 mph sustained with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Simply brutal conditions, that are being monitored for a potential "cold weather" headline. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 512 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Another round of snow will move into central and north central South Dakota this morning, expanding east through the day today. Snowfall rates are expected to remain fairly low, but will still be enough to reduce visibility at times. Generally MVFR visibilities can be expected where snow is present, with an occasional dip down to IFR visibilities. The same can be said for ceilings, as the main cloud deck will be MVFR with occasional IFR conditions. Snowfall will move out of central/north central South Dakota by this evening and out of northeastern South Dakota tonight. There is some potential for lingering light snow on the back end of the system, so have left a PROB30 group in the TAFs for the ending of the precipitation. MVFR ceilings will also linger on the back end of the system, moving out from west to east near the end of the TAF period Monday morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...BC ####018010064#### FXUS62 KRAH 071115 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 615 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend, as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Sunday... * Fog/stratus through the noon hour, then trending gradually to partly cloudy in the afternoon, but uncertainty is high. * Not as chilly as yesterday, but still below normal. * Clouds increase overnight, with a little light precip spreading into the Piedmont from the W late. We'll stay in a fast and flat WSW steering flow today, while at the surface, weak high pressure analyzed over NC and the Mid Atlantic holds in place before drifting offshore late. The most noteworthy issue today is determining when the morning fog and stratus will most likely burn off. The mid and upper levels will briefly dry out Sun behind the departing weak mid level perturbation and upper jet streak pushing ENE off the Mid Atlantic coast, which should allow some insolation that might help burn off the fog/stratus from the top. But with weak surface flow to inhibit horizontal mixing, and with steady slow warming taking place just aloft (~925-900 mb) helping to reinforce the surface-based stability, we could see low clouds hanging on in most areas well into the afternoon. Even if some of the area sees at least a few hours of partial sunshine prior to sunset, it may not be enough to warm up temps much. As such, forecast high temps today will be a few degrees below yesterday's expectations, mainly in the upper 40s to around 50, warmer than Sat but still below seasonal normals. Our attention then turns to a shortwave trough over WY/CO early this morning that will shift through the Mid Miss Valley and across TN toward W NC through tonight, propelled by energy diving into the trough from the Upper Midwest. This trough will be associated with an Arctic cold front that will move into the Mid South, Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians overnight. High and mid level clouds are expected to spread in from the west starting in the evening, and we'll see a trend toward weak mid level DPVA in our west late, but there's little opportunity for substantial moisture return into our area through the lowest several thousand ft AGL. PW does inch up across W NC late, but values are still near or just slightly above normal, thus any mechanisms to force ascent will need to work on what little moisture is attending the system. Will have mostly low chance pops spreading into the W CWA late, and given the stubborn pocket of drier low level air, any amounts initially should be very light. Based on high res guidance, there is a high chance for ice in the clouds, and if any of these hydrometeors can survive the layer of drier air just off the surface (in a seeder-feeder process), we may see a little light snow mixed in with light rain at the ground toward morning. But overall, the expected surface wet bulb temps are likely to be just above freezing through the night, favoring just liquid for ptype through tonight. Lows across the CWA will be around 31-36. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... * Chance of precipitation areawide Mon, likely mixing with then changing to a period of all snow before ending, especially across the N and W. * Precip amounts should generally be under a quarter inch liquid equivalent, suggesting that any snow accumulation would be mostly under an inch given the initial rain/snow mix, but stay tuned. Forcing for ascent focused in the mid and upper levels should continue to ramp up early Mon as the aforementioned trough approaches, but the incoming PW values will likely be just near normal and falling further late in the day as the mid-upper levels start to dry out. But forecast soundings show at least a few hours in which the column is saturated or nearly so throughout the mixed phase region aloft down to the surface, occurring in conjunction with peak mid level DPVA from late morning through late afternoon W to E. The incoming Arctic front is expected to push SSE through central NC in the afternoon, so the coldest air may be chasing the better moisture to some degree during the morning hours, particularly if the higher terrain manages to delay the coldest and most dense air for a few hours. But we're still likely to see an atypical temp trend with surface temps falling in the afternoon, and confidence is increasing that we'll see at least a couple of hours of predominant light wet snow over all but the far S and SE CWA Mon afternoon as the low levels cool, with accumulations potentially limited by the initial rain/snow mix, the surface temps sitting near or slightly above freezing for much of the day, and the modest PW values. Model agreement is good in showing a thermal pattern supporting patchy light rain chances at onset, followed by good chance to likely pops for a light rain/snow mix, then changing to mostly light snow before ending in the late afternoon or very early evening, with no reasonable chance of any icing or freezing precip. Total accumulation should range from a trace along and N of a line from the Triad to near Goldsboro, ranging to one half to just under one inch near the VA border. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s early, with readings falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Cold lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s will lead to minimum wind chills in the teens in most places overnight into Tue morning. While any lingering precip on the ground will begin to dry out overnight, we'll be lacking a strong wind to aid in the drying process, and there is a good chance in a flash freeze with areas of black ice developing, which would cause travel concerns late Mon night into early Tue. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... * Continued chilly Tue/Tue night, then moderating Wed/Thu before dropping back well below normal by Sat. * Precip chances are looking a bit higher for Thu night through Fri night. The rest of the week appears mostly tranquil, continued chilly Tue but with temperatures trending back closer to normal as the air mass moderates and the surface high slides to our SE. Models indicate another round of Arctic air pouring into the Upper Midwest Wed and through the Great Lakes region and into New England Thu, leading to a renewed digging of longwave troughing over the central and eastern CONUS. WAA and moisture advection ahead of the incoming associated surface cold front favor rain chances moving into the NW CWA late Thu then spreading areawide Thu night through Fri before exiting to the E Fri night. We may again see a period of changeover to snow before ending Fri night, esp across the northern CWA, as the cold front drops SSE through the area. After chilly highs in the low to mid 40s Tue, temps should return closer to normal for Wed/Thu, then trending cooler Fri (with specifics dependent on the frontal timing) and quite chilly Sat with highs expected to be only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. -GIH && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 615 AM Sunday... * Dense fog this morning, followed by slowly improving aviation conditions today, and then another period of sub-VFR tonight. Dense fog in the Piedmont and more predominately low stratus in the coastal plain has been shifting and eroding over the past couple of hours, resulting in lower confidence int he TAFS over the next few hours. Clearing around GSO and INT has resulted in VFR, but low clouds could easily fill back in, so will maintain some IFR through 14-15Z. Stratus has been eroding from east to west near RWI and FAY, but with the clearing vsbys have dropped to 1/2 to 1/4 miles, so similarly IFR or LIFR will be maintained for a couple more hours. Overall conditions should again be slow to improve today, with some guidance suggesting some sub-VFR ceilings at least temporarily lingering in the afternoon. However, given the current trend, there is some credence to MVFR or VFR being a bit more common by this afternoon.Light and variable or southerly winds will prevail. Once again with the same moist airmass in place tonight, fog is a possibility, although high clouds streaming in from the SW ahead of an approaching upper disturbance may inhibit widespread dense fog. Have trended TAFS toward more IFR from west to east after 04Z, but confidence is only medium. Outlook: A strong upper disturbance crossing the region on Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow, changing to snow in some northern areas before ending Monday evening. Chances of light snow are higher from INT/GSO to RDU and RWI. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-041. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ038>040-042- 043-073>078. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ083>086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...BLS ####018004785#### FXUS65 KPSR 071115 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 415 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and generally quiet conditions will continue through at least the next 7 days. - Temperatures will warm over the weekend and through the upcoming workweek, likely reaching 8 to 12 degrees above daily normals. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Objective analysis and water vapor satellite imagery early this morning show a high pressure system centered over the eastern Pacific Ocean, just off the coast of southern California, along with longwave troughing over the eastern two thirds of CONUS. The aforementioned ridge will remain stalled over the eastern Pacific Ocean, but strengthen over the next couple of days. Even though the ridge is centered over the eastern Pacific, much of western CONUS is under the influence of its eastern flank. Over the next couple of days, the ridge will strengthen and the aforementioned longwave trough will move eastward, heights over the Desert Southwest will slowly rise. This will lead to a gradual warming trend resulting in temperatures 4-8 degrees above normal. Afternoon high temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s across the lower deserts and in the mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain. With the ridge to the west of our region, the Desert Southwest will be under dry N/NW flow which will promote the continuation of dry tranquil weather conditions. Skies will also remain mostly clear with only some occasional passing mid and high clouds. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/... Models continue to be in great agreement that the ridge will remain stalled off the west coast of California through the middle of this coming week, keeping much of western CONUS under the influence of the eastern flank of the ridge. Multiple shortwaves will be moving from the Pacific NW/southern British Columbia down into the Plains that will temporally dampen the ridge, but, it will quickly rebound. If any of these shortwaves are able to push into the Desert Southwest at all, it would briefly stall our warming trend for a day. Nevertheless, afternoon high temperatures, region wide, will gradually warm to around 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s and near 80F in some places across the lower deserts, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the higher terrain. By the end of the week and heading into next weekend, the ridge will finally push onshore with the center of the ridge eventually moving over the Desert Southwest during the weekend. The ridge will be weakening as it moves onshore, however, with it moving directly overhead temperatures will continue to gradually warm. H5 heights will rise into the 583-586 dm range by the end of next week and heading into next weekend. This will result in afternoon high temperatures 10-12 degrees above normal and morning low temperatures 6-8 degrees above normal. For the end of next week, afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the lower deserts and in the low to mid 70s across the higher terrain. Morning lows are forecast to be in the 50s across the lower deserts and in the 40s across the higher terrain. Additionally with the ridge continuing to dominate the region, dry and tranquil conditions will continue through at least next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1115Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. Winds will continue to follow their typical diurnal tendencies and remain light, generally aob 5 kt, with extended periods of light and variable to calm conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions will prevail across the region through this coming week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm to 10-12 degrees above normal by the end of this week. Winds will generally remain light and terrain-driven. Humidities over the next week will stay elevated with afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-30%, followed by good to excellent overnight recoveries. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Berislavich LONG TERM...Berislavich AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich ####018007799#### FXUS63 KBIS 071115 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 515 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another area of light snow is expected to cross the state from west to east today, with snow accumulations around one half to near 2 inches. - A more impactful system is forecast Monday night through Tuesday night, which may bring a period of freezing rain, accumulating snow (highest chances north and east), and very strong winds to parts of western and central North Dakota. - The active pattern continues through the middle of the week, with medium chances for another round of accumulating snow late Wednesday through Thursday. - Cold today, followed by above average temperatures Monday and Tuesday, then back below average for the second half of the week. Friday could be very cold with dangerous wind chills. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 513 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A surface ridge axis across Manitoba and the eastern Dakotas has allowed early morning temperatures to plummet, with widespread observed lows around 5 to 20 below zero. There have been a few instances of wind chills as low as 30 to 35 below, but winds have mostly remained light except in the far west where temperatures are now rising. A mid level shortwave/low level warm front will bring a band of light snow across the state from west to east this morning through this evening. The snow was already crossing the Montana border around Beach and to the south at the time of this writing. QPF threshold probabilities have been consistently high for at least 0.01", medium for at least 0.05", and very low for greater than 0.1". With ensemble snow ratios around 15:1 to 20:1, this yields medium to high confidence in snow totals around one half to near 2 inches. The NBM has focused its highest snow probabilities more over the southern half of the state compared to the north, but we anticipated at least a few tenths of an inch across all of western and central North Dakota by the end of the day. It will remain cold for most of the state today, but with a slight warmup in the west compared to yesterday. Highs this afternoon are forecast to range from the single digits above zero east to near 30 in the southwest corner of the state. Another shortwave crossing central Canada will bring a Pacific warm front across the state late tonight into Monday morning. Some CAMs hint at scattered light precipitation accompanying the warm front, which is a conceptually and climatologically favored outcome with this type of feature. The light precipitation would almost certainly fall as freezing rain, but the probability of of impactful icing at any location is no greater than 15 percent. As the parent shortwave dives into the Red River Valley Monday afternoon, some snow or mixed precipitation could clip the Turtle Mountains, with only low chances for impactful winter weather at this time. Monday will be much warmer, with highs mostly in the 30s outside of the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake Basin. But it will also be windy on Monday, with westerly winds around 20 to 25 mph and afternoon gusts as high as 35 mph. Confidence continues to increase that a powerful clipper system will impact the region Monday night through Tuesday night. The main concern for Monday night into Tuesday morning is the potential for freezing rain. There are medium to high probabilities for measurable precipitation across the western half of the state over this time period, and high confidence in above freezing temperatures aloft. The uncertainty is with surface temperatures, which are forecast to steadily rise during the late overnight and morning hours but could fall below freezing before the warmup commences. NBM temperature probabilities prior to sunrise generally show low potential for sub- freezing surface temperatures in the southwest, and a medium to high potential elsewhere. This could result in a period of impactful ice accumulation, but greater than a tenth of an inch of ice appears highly unlikely. The highest probabilities for icing are across northwest and central North Dakota. 00Z ensemble cluster analysis shows little spread in the timing and track of the surface low, but there are subtle differences in the QPF/snow fields worth pointing out. Two clusters with around 55 percent membership show the major axis of highest QPF cutting through north central North Dakota. The other two clusters show the same feature shifted farther west into northwest North Dakota, but the eastern edge of these major axes in both clusters are near Fargo. The former of these sets of clusters also contains higher QPF (high chances for at least 0.25") and snow (medium to high chances for at least 3 inches) probabilities than the latter, both focused across north central North Dakota. Snow probabilities drop off significantly to the south and west, where afternoon temperatures are forecast to rise well above freezing, perhaps as warm as the mid 40s. There is still a potential for lighter snow in south central North Dakota with the cold front surging southeastward later in the day. The most impactful aspect of the Tuesday system will likely be very strong winds across western and south central North Dakota. Every ensemble cluster now has a large area of mean 850 mb winds in the 55-60 kt range, and deterministic soundings confirm this is a reasonable approximation for mixing heights. All requisite ingredients for maximum momentum transfer are forecast to be present, including strong cold air advection, strong pressure rises, tightly packed isobars and isotherms, steep low level lapse rates, and a favorable time of day. If these forecast signals hold, a High Wind Watch will eventually be needed. An active northwest flow pattern is favored to continue through the rest of the week. The highest chances for accumulating snow beyond Tuesday are with an upper level jet streak ejecting off the Northern Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday, but forecast details on amounts and locations thereof remain uncertain (there are slightly higher odds to the west compared to the east). There is however increasing confidence in temperatures becoming much colder for the second half of the week, especially from Thursday night through Friday night when ensembles favor a strong Arctic intrusion. The NBM shows medium to high probabilities for highs below zero on Friday, along with medium probabilities for lows around 15 to 25 below both Thursday and Friday nights. This bitterly cold air mass could be accompanied by enough of a northwest breeze to cause wind chills to fall to dangerous levels. Deterministic-based NBM wind chill projections are currently as cold as 35 to 45 below zero Thursday night into Friday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 High pressure builds across North Dakota tonight, and will result in mainly VFR conditions to start the 06Z period. Next weather disturbance approaches later tonight and moves across the state on Sunday, and will once again bring lower ceilings and visibility in snow. MVFR-IFR conditions expected, occasionally LIFR with any heavier snow shower. Winds transition to southeasterly by Sunday morning, with a switch to more southerly Sunday night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...NH