####018010710#### FXUS61 KAKQ 041815 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 115 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool weather continues into next week. Chances are increasing in a period of accumulating snow Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Precipitation chances over to a wintry mix or all rain by Friday afternoon into Friday evening before ending. An unsettled pattern continues through Monday with a low chance for light additional precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry and a bit warmer today with increasing clouds. Early morning analysis shows strong (1032mb) high pressure over the Midwest with departing low pressure over eastern Canada. A cold front extends SW of the surface low and is draped across the Ohio Valley. Chilly start to the day with most inland areas in the mid to upper 20s around sunrise, upper 20s and low 30s along the coast. The airmass modifies today ahead of the next front with mostly clear skies expected through late morning. Brisk zonal flow aloft strengthens through the afternoon with clouds increasing across the area. Afternoon high temps range from the upper 40s generally north of I-64 with low to mid 50s expected to the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of our inland VA counties from late tonight through late Friday night. - Confidence continues to increase for a period of light to locally moderate snow across the region starting tonight and potentially lingering into Friday afternoon. - Mixed precip is also possible as drying aloft results in periods of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle, mainly Friday afternoon into the evening. High pressure currently over the Midwest translates eastward this evening. The surface cold front drops south of the local area by sunset with cold and dry air spilling into the region. Aloft, a strong jet (nearly 200 kt progged by some models) at 250mb develops just north of the local area. 00z and available hi-res guidance has come in a bit faster with increasing moisture/lift and associated precip than previous runs with many models bringing snow into western portions of the area shortly after midnight, spreading eastward prior to sunrise. 00z ensembles have increased probabilities of >1" of snow to 90-100% but remain low for >3". With the earlier onset, snow totals have increased a bit as it will be plenty cold enough for snow to accumulate tonight/early Friday. The Friday morning commute will be impacted across much of the area with hazardous driving conditions expected to quickly follow the onset of snow late tonight. An area of strong frontogenesis is expected to develop along and the VA/NC border tonight into Friday morning which may lead to some banded snowfall, mainly to the north of the maximum frontogenesis. At this time, the favored area appears to be near the US-460 corridor west of I-95 from Farmville eastward to the Tri- Cities/Prince George, Charles City, and Richmond Metro, though some uncertainty remains regarding the exact placement of the higher potential snowfall corridor. Therefore, went with a broad Winter Weather Advisory that includes much of inland Virginia. The Advisory does not include areas adjacent to the Ches Bay, Hampton Roads/Norfolk, or NE NC (except Northampton, NC) where mainly just rain is expected. A dusting up to 1" of snow is possible Friday morning, mainly a county or two to the east of the Advisory area before temperatures warm above freezing. Some modification of the area and/or timing of the Winter Weather Advisory are possible if trends toward a faster onset continue. A related trend in the 00z guidance was toward less in the way of freezing rain accumulation across the area. Forecast soundings remain quite cold before rapid drying aloft moves in by Friday afternoon with a loss of saturation in the dendritic growth zone spreading eastward Friday afternoon and evening. A period of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is possible but the threat for more widespread icing impacts has decreased. Will maintain 'light glaze' wording with only a few hundredths of accretion expected. Coastal low pressure develops near Cape Hatteras and moves ENE offshore Friday night with slight chance to chance PoPs lingering along the coast. Temperatures are expected to be above freezing near the coast so will keep precip mainly rain or drizzle. Overnight low temps range from the mid 20s NW to the mid/upper 30s SE. Saturday will be mostly dry and cool with highs in the 40s (most in the low/mid 40s) and lows Saturday night in the 20s. A few light showers are possible across far SE VA/NE NC Saturday, however, any precip that falls should be plain rain (as opposed to wintry precip). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Thursday... - Below average temperatures continue into early next week. - There is a low chance for additional precipitation Sunday night into Monday as a surface low develops offshore. The general model consensus continues to show primarily dry conditions on Sunday apart from a slight chance for a few light showers across S/SE VA/NE NC. 00z guidance has started to converge on coastal low pressure developing farther offshore than previous deterministic runs with most of the area remaining dry. Stuck close to the blended guidance which does spread precip a bit farther inland than the operational models would suggest. Accordingly, there is some potential for the precip to end as a period of rain/snow mix but expect NBM to trend precip downward/eastward in subsequent runs with little to no impacts for the area. That said, any shift NW could quickly change the setup from an offshore low with little to no impact to a more impactful winter system. A few things that are worth noting are that the NAO remains weakly negative into Monday while the PNA quickly goes from negative on Saturday to positive on Monday. These teleconnections are favorable for cold air across the local area (NBM highs for Monday are in the mid- upper 30s for most and low-mid 40s across SE VA/NE NC). Beyond Monday, uncertainty remains high with respect to the details of the forecast. However, cool weather likely continues with a slow warming trend mid to late week. A chance for precipitation returns for the mid to late week period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Thursday... VFR conditions continue at all terminals with NW winds becoming NE at 5-12 kt (highest at ORF where gusts to 20 kt are possible tonight). Then, rapidly deteriorating conditions are expected with light to occasionally moderate snow moving into RIC by ~07z and SBY/PHF by ~10z. VSBYs will vary between 0.5-2 SM in the snow...with the best chc for moderate snow/0.5 SM VSBYs at RIC. ORF/ECG should see precip begin by 09-11z (mainly rain but snow may mix in at ORF). Snow tapers to drizzle from west to east between 13-17z (with freezing drizzle possible at RIC as temps struggle to rise above 32F throughout the day). Precip may change to rain at PHF before tapering to drizzle. CIGs drop to MVFR/IFR by 08-10z with IFR CIGs expected at all terminals during the day on Friday. Drizzle may continue through Fri evening before drier conditions return Fri night (though low CIGs could persist through Fri night). Outlook: Mainly dry Sat-Sun, though some low chances for precipitation and the potential for periodic flight restrictions may linger in the SE. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry cold frontal passage this afternoon will create elevated northerly winds into the early overnight hours. - Calmer conditions expected for the weekend. Another round of SCAs may be possible early next week. Early morning surface analysis shows broad high pressure across the region as a cold front slowly pushes into the Ohio River Valley. Winds are light and seas are 2ft across the north and 3-4ft down south. The first half of today will be benign, but the aforementioned cold front will slide through this afternoon shifting winds out of the north/northwest. As the colder air rushes in, winds will increase once again, though speeds don't look to be as strong this time. 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt will overspread the waters from north to south this afternoon and evening. It's just enough to warrant low-end Small Craft Advisories for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Also opted to add the northern coastal waters north of Parramore Island to account for seas building to 5ft. Wind speeds won't be quite SCA criteria across the coastal waters, but will be gusty nonetheless. Winds and seas will subside after 07Z allowing the SCAs to end. Additionally, a weather system will bring precipitation to the area early Friday morning through the overnight hours. With the cold air in place, a rain/snow mix is likely over the waters Friday morning, especially the rivers and Bay. A transition to primarily rain is expected Friday afternoon. This precip could certainly cause visibility reductions. Scattered rain chances look to linger across the southern waters into the weekend, though for now, winds are expected to remain on the benign side with seas of 2-3ft and waves around 1-2ft. The next system may move in on Monday, which has a good chance of bringing another round of gusty winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for NCZ012. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092- 509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR/RMM NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR/RMM AVIATION...ERI MARINE...JKP ####018009031#### FXUS62 KRAH 041815 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 115 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will hold over the Southeast coast and eastern Carolinas this morning. A dry cold front will push southward through the region later today, settling just to our south as Arctic high pressure noses in from the north. Low pressure developing over the northern Gulf will track northeastward across the Southeast states and Carolinas late tonight through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... A weak surface trough will linger across the area today before being pushed south and out of the area by a dry cold front. Arctic high moving into the OH Valley begins to build into the area this evening. A mid-level srn stream wave will track ewd across nrn FL/GA and off the Southeast US coast this eve. Cloud cover will increase this aft and eve as the wave passes to the south, but the weather should largely remain dry through the afternoon. Highs will be near to slightly below normal, generally in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Thursday... * Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight through midnight Saturday for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain of central NC. Up to an inch of snow accumulation and a glaze of ice accumulation are expected. * Snow, and sleet (likely mixed with rain) are possible south of the advisory area between midnight and 10 AM Friday, however the duration of non-liquid precipitation will be shorter and accumulations will be below advisory criteria before the transition to all rain occurs. * A brief period of freezing drizzle could occur (mainly over the advisory area) as the precipitation moves out Friday evening/night, but confidence in that occurrence is lower. Overview: Aloft, a mid-level srn stream wave will track ewd across nrn FL/GA and off the Southeast US coast this eve, while a nrn stream s/w follows on its heels, tracking ewd across the srn Appalachians and Carolinas tonight/Fri and off the Carolina coast Fri night. The H25 170 kt jet should stay north of the area, oriented generally from W-E extending from the mid MS Valley to the DELMARVA and east. At the surface, Arctic high pressure will move ewd from the OH Valley to the Northeast US, ridging swd into the area through Thu night. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the nrn Gulf will begin tracking enewd into the Southeast US tonight. The ridge will likely hold over portions of central NC as the high shifts off the New England coast and the deepening low tracks newd across the Southeast US and along the Carolina coast on Fri. The low should continue ewd out over the Atlantic Fri night, with high pressure remaining over the area. Temperatures: lows tonight in the upper 20s north to mid/upper 30s south expected. Fri highs will be well below normal, only reaching the low/mid 30s north to low/mid 40s south and with a bit of a breezy it may only feel like upper 20s to mid 30s across much of the area. Precipitation: Isentropic lift will increase this eve/tonight, quickly saturating the mid levels, including the dendritic growth zone, by midnight. As precipitation begins, initially rain in most places, the lower levels will also saturate. Precipitation will continue into the morning, then could begin moving out of the area from W-E Fri afternoon or evening, end timing is still a bit uncertain. Across the northern half of central NC (roughly along and north of HWY 64): the temperatures should wetbulb to near/below 0C tonight. The thermal profile, with temperatures through the column at or below 0C, should support a period of snow in the advisory area, perhaps mixing with rain south of the advisory area, into Fri morning. However, there is still some uncertainty wrt p-types from early Fri morn into Fri aft. The biggest p-type question will be if, when, and for how long some sleet or freezing rain may mix in, depending on the strength/depth of the warm nose aloft, and/or if there will be a transition to fzdz as dry air intrudes near/below the dendritic growth zone. The accumulations of snow and ice will hinge on these transitions and durations. For now expect a glaze of ice accumulation and up to an inch of snow in the advisory area. If the saturated layer below the dry air intrusion is deep enough and surface temps remain below freezing, a transition to fzdz is possible, which could result in some light ice accrual as the precipitation ends. Across the srn half/third of central NC: largely expect precip to be rain, although cannot rule out a brief period of snow mixing in farther north. Friday night: The precipitation should be out, or be moving out of the area Friday night, though some rain may linger across the southeast into/through the night. Lows should range from mid/upr 20s to low/mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 110 PM Thursday... * Forecast trending drier and warmer with Sun night into Mon system. * Bitter cold temperatures Tues morning. A strong and elongated upper-level jet will be in place Sat morning stretching from the southern Plains and across the Mid-Atlantic. This jet will shift eastward throughout the day as the PV trough drifts across the Mid-Atlantic and shunts the mid/upper level moisture into the western Atlantic arcing back into the northern Gulf. This process should shift the axis of more steady rain from the eastern Piedmont and Carolina coast and out of the area through the late evening and overnight period. At the surface, the Carolinas will be between two fronts, one draped across the northern Gulf states to northern FL, and a wavy Arctic front in the Northeast and Great Lakes region. A pair of shortwaves pivoting across the Great Lakes and the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Sun afternoon is expected to interact with these fronts and result in weak areas of low pressure rippling along them Sun afternoon into early Mon morning. Although these features will work in tandem to bring precipitation chances Sun night into Mon morning, central NC may be split between these two systems and keep precipitation chances and amounts relatively low. The mid-levels should still be cold enough for ice-crystal formation, however, lack of saturation above -8C and warming low-levels will keep all precipitation liquid through Sun night into Mon ahead of the Arctic frontal passage Mon. Forecast turns quieter and colder early next week as cold high pressure on the backside of the Sun night/Mon system filters into the area and PWAT values drop to well below normal. Tues morning could be bitterly cold with the surface high centered directly over the area. Lows in the low/mid 20s to upper teens Tues morning certainly appear possible. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 PM Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 00z tonight with aviation conditions deteriorating around midnight. A backdoor front is expected to provide a wind shift and briefly gusty NE winds around 12 to 15 kts. Lowering cloud bases towards low-VFR will accompany the initial surge of precipitation, all liquid likely at onset. A more substantial surge in moisture is expected after 06z when precipitation will likely turn to a wintry mix with a period of light to moderate snow and ice pellets possible at the northern TAF sites (GSO, INT, RDU, RWI), best chances at GSO and INT. At FAY, all liquid rain is expected with a period of moderate rainfall possible. P-types will transition to all liquid and/or cease all together as dry air aloft moves in from NW to SE. Low cigs of IFR to LIFR are expected to persist as precip moves out and perhaps even lower to around 300 ft with IFR/LIFR vsby from drizzle and mist towards the end of the TAF period. Outlook: IFR/LIFR cigs and fog may persist well through Fri night into Sat with some improvement possible during the day on Sat. Dependent on the degree of clearing, a redevelopment of sub-VFR fog and stratus will be possible Sat night and linger well into Sun ahead of our next weather system Sun into early Mon. A strong Arctic front will scour out the lingering in-situ CAD regime and may bring gusty NW winds Mon. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday night for NCZ007>011-021>025. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...AS ####018005726#### FXUS64 KMRX 041815 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 115 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 108 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Light wintry precipitation expected tonight over our VA counties and areas in TN near the KY and VA state lines. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted to account for this. - Confidence is fairly high for timing and accumulations in Virginia, with medium confidence in northeastern Tennessee. - Some mixed precipitation types could briefly occur as far south as the I-40 corridor, but predominant precip type should be rain and no accumulations or impacts are expected that far south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 The main forecast item of concern is the next 12-24 hours and the possibility of some light wintry precipitation set to affect our forecast area tonight into Friday morning. Synoptically speaking, broad west southwesterly flow is in place across the central and eastern CONUS, anchored by a weakening closed low off the Baja peninsula in the west. Cold temps over the midwest and Great Lakes regions, reinforced by troughing over eastern Canada, along with a shortwave ejecting from southern plains, are driving a strong WSW-ENE oriented upper jet from the Ozarks into Kentucky. This jet and shortwave interaction will produce some light precipitation tonight and into Friday morning across the forecast area. Forecast soundings support a mix of precipitation types, ranging from all, or mostly, snow in our Virginia counties to a mixed bag in TN from the northern Cumberland plateau eastward towards Hawkins and Johnson counties. Any further south than that (places like Morristown, Jefferson City, Dandridge, Knoxville, etc), nearer the I-40 corridor, there may be some snow mix in shortly after the onset of precipitation tonight but it should be primarily rain and certainly no accumulations are expected. As for accumulations, deterministic guidance supports about an inch of snow in our VA counties and a dusting to half an inch in northern Tennessee. However, probabilistic guidance paints a different picture, with HREF showing upwards of 80 percent odds of GTE 2 inches of snow in our VA counties and even 50 percent odds of GTE 3". REFS output isn't much different, showing 70 percent odds of GTE 2" over an albeit smaller footprint of our VA counties, and even some 40 percent odds of GTE 3" totals. Forecast soundings support this ptype forecast so my confidence level in VA is fairly high. The transition zone in northern TN is where my confidence is much lower. The area from roughly the TN/VA line, to a line from roughly Wartburg to Morristown to Johnson city, will feature mixed precipitation and will changeover to rain at some point tonight. The question really is what ptype wins out the longest and what, if any, impacts there wind up being. Current guidance depicts at least some chance of freezing rain and resulting light glazing, along with a dusting to half an inch of snow tonight for areas mainly within a county or so of the TN/KY/VA state line areas. Much further south than that and while there could be mixed ptypes, temperatures will be just warm enough to preclude any type of accumulations or impacts. By the I-40 corridor, it should be all rain tonight. All wintry precip comes to an end between daybreak and mid morning tomorrow, holding on the longest in northern Wise and Russell counties, as warming southwesterly flow aloft moves in. West southwesterly flow continues aloft heading into the weekend, with surface high pressure keeping dry conditions in place Saturday. Another disturbance moves through Sunday into Monday for more chances of light rain. There could be some wintry precip with that one Sun night as temperatures cool off, but confidence is low on both occurrence and amounts/impacts at the moment due to disagreements amongst guidance sources. Otherwise, dry conditions last much of the remainder of the period, along with below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, but cloud heights and flight categories will lower quickly after 00z this evening as overrunning precipitation moves in from the southwest. Expect a fairly quick transition from VFR to IFR categories tonight. Mixed precipitation is expected at KTRI, with only a low chance of occurrence as far south as KTYS. Did add a brief PROB30 for RASN there but expect it to be mostly rain at KTYS and KCHA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 49 39 51 / 100 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 45 37 49 / 90 40 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 34 45 36 49 / 90 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 42 36 46 / 90 50 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for Anderson-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Morgan-Northwest Carter-Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan- Unicoi. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for Johnson. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...CD AVIATION...CD ####018008566#### FXUS61 KOKX 041816 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 116 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass through this afternoon, followed by strong high pressure building from the west tonight into Friday. The high will pass east Friday night as weak low pressure passes well to the south Friday night and heads well out to sea on Saturday. A cold front will move through Sunday night, with Arctic high pressure building in behind it. This high will likely remain in control through early next week. Low pressure may impact the area Wednesday as it passes to the north and west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points: * A dry cold frontal passage will take place this afternoon. * Low wind chills and record low temps possible at some spots tonight. Approaching front today should come through in split fashion, with a pre-frontal trough roughly around midday, then the actual cold front later this afternoon into early this evening. Model fcst soundings are much drier than earlier cycles due to downslope flow and presence of drier air aloft, so have removed mention of precip despite marginally favorable parameters showing weak low level instability and minimal SSQ parameter values which can sometimes work well even for forecasting snow showers. Think there will be mostly virga with fropa, and wouldn't entirely rule out a stray flurry well NW of NYC from about 18Z-21Z with the actual cold frontal passage. Streamers from the Great Lakes following fropa are unlikely to make it into the area this evening, but are still something worth monitoring. Temps reaching the upper 30s/lower 40s this afternoon will plummet tonight, reaching the single digits in some spots well inland, teens most elsewhere, and the lower 20s in/just outside NYC and out by Montauk. Some record low temps may be approached or set. Winds should veer/increase veer today with the approach and passage of the pre-frontal trough and actual cold front, with W flow 10-15 gusting up to 20 mph this morning, then WNW flow 15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph this afternoon, and NW flow 20-25 mph gusting to 25-35 mph late today into this evening after fropa. Winds then quickly diminish late tonight as high pressure starts to build in. Tonight's winds in combination with falling temps will lead to wind chills in the single digits and teens as early as this evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Points: * Cold conditions continue, especially daytime Friday. * Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with some light snow/rain Friday night into Saturday. Temps on Fri as the high builds across will only reach the mid/upper 20s inland, lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid 30s across eastern Long Island. Still maintaining a 30-40 PoP as the precip shield with a srn stream low passing off Hatteras and moving nearly due E out to sea skirts the area. Precip type should be mostly light snow with little to no accumulation Fri night, then light rain or a rain/snow mix on Sat as temps warm and mid levels dry out. Low temps Fri night and Sat night will be mostly in the 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Sat will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Points: * Mainly dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected early next week. * A cold air mass appears likely Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs on Monday may struggle to rise above freezing even down to the coast. A stronger cold front will move across the area Sunday night that will usher in a cold air mass for early next week. The cold air looks to hang around into Tuesday. Lows Monday look to fall into the teens and low 20s with highs on Monday in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Wind chills will be as low as the single digits well inland and teens elsewhere both Sunday night and Mon night. Lows Tuesday morning may be in the teens for much of the area, with highs moderating a bit into the 30s. Moderating temperatures are signaled with the latest model consensus indicating highs rebounding into upper 30s inland and lower/mid 40s near the coast. A clipper system may move across the Northeast on Wednesday, but this is a week out and models/ensembles differ on timing and strength of the low pressure. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front moves through this afternoon. High pressure then builds in from the west through tonight and settles over the area Friday morning before weakening and moving away late in the day. VFR prevails. Any light snow showers this afternoon should be confined to KSWF, where a PROB30 is in place for -SHSN and stronger winds with cold frontal passage. West winds increase this afternoon, especially with the cold frontal passage. The winds will gradually go more WNW, then NW after 21-22z and through the end of the evening push. Peak winds will likely occur around the 20-22z timeframe for most terminals, an hour earlier for the more western terminals. Winds and gusts begin to decrease some around 00Z this evening with the gusts ending late tonight, mainly by 04-06z. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Some flurries and light snow / rain showers can not be ruled out this afternoon, but will likely not cause any vsby restrictions and thus have been kept out of TAFs. Amendments are possible if trends indicate an increase in rain / snow showers chances. There may be some peak gusts a few kt higher than what is currently in the TAF, potentially up to around 35 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday afternoon: Primarily VFR. Low chance of brief MVFR and light snow during the late afternoon/night, especially for southern and eastern terminals. Saturday: Low chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of the NYC metros, otherwise VFR prevails. Sunday through Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Seas 5+ ft return to the ocean waters as westerly flow gradually increases to near 20 kt. Gusts over 25 kt expected on all waters early this afternoon, then NW gales expected on the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays of Long Island late today into this evening following a cold frontal passage, with winds gusting to 30 kt on the Harbor/wrn Sound/south shore bays. Seas should peak at 5-8 ft on the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet, 4-7 on the ocean W of there, and 5 ft on the Long Island side of the central/ern Sound. Blowout tides may be possible on the western Sound with the low tide early this evening, with water levels approaching 2 ft below MLLW. A low water advisory may eventually be issued. SCA cond on the ocean and the ern Sound/bays late tonight quickly ramp down, with quiet cond through the weekend. The next chance for SCA conditions occurs late Sunday night into Monday as a cold front moves across the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport and Stamford CT tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as low pressure passes well south. && .CLIMATE... Low temps Fri morning may reach daily record lows at KJFK/KBDR, and may also get close at KLGA. High temps Fri may also be close to daily record low maxes at KLGA/KJFK. Record Low Temperatures: KEWR: 15/1935 KBDR: 17/1989 KNYC: 11/1926 KLGA: 21/1942 KJFK: 20/1966 KISP: 13/1966 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: KEWR: 31/2002 KBDR: 28/2002 KNYC: 22/1886 KLGA: 32/2002 KJFK: 33/2007 KISP: 30/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-332-340-350- 353-355. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338- 345. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/JT NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...JE MARINE...BG/JT HYDROLOGY...BG/JT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... ####018003725#### FXUS64 KSJT 041817 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1217 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold tonight with lows in the low/mid 30s but much warmer on Friday with highs in the 60s. - Dry and warmer weather will prevail Friday through Saturday, before the next cold front on Sunday, followed by gradual warming for the beginning of the work week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A cold day across West Central Texas this afternoon with temperatures holding in the upper 30s to lower 40s across most areas. Low clouds will eventually decrease across the area this afternoon and evening, but mid and high clouds will persist. This will help keep temperatures from bottoming out overnight with lows mainly in the low to mid 30s. Main upper level trough will move a little closer overnight, with a weak shortwave combining with some of this mid/upper moisture to squeeze out a few light showers across the southern areas mainly south of I-10. Will continue the slight chance mention down there, although again any rain reaching the ground should be light. A little more sunshine on Friday with a break in some of the mid and upper level cloud cover. Surface high pressure will also be shifting east of the area and light south to southwest winds will return. Forecast highs climbing into the low to mid 60s for most areas looks perfectly reasonable. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 An upper-level trough will set up across the region from the west by the end of the work week, with a series of weak shortwave disturbances tracking through West Central Texas though the first half of next week. The limiting factor remains the available moisture for precipitation, which most models are showing is still lacking. As of now, we are expecting these systems to remain dry and track through the area with little to no precipitation. Temperatures are expected to warm Friday into Saturday into the upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday, before the next cold front on Sunday brings high temperatures into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures gradually warm back into the upper 60s to mid 70s by Wednesday, before the arrival of the next cold front on Thursday. Coldest night over the next week will be Monday morning when radiational cooling allows temperatures to drop to near or below freezing across much of the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 IFR and MVFR cigs will continue across West Central Texas terminals early this afternoon, but some slow and steady improvement will continue through the afternoon and into the evening, allowing all sites to become VFR later today. North winds around 10 knots will continue through sunset, but become light and variable during the overnight hours. Some light south winds will eventually redevelop across the area Friday morning as the surface high pressure shifts across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 33 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 35 62 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 36 60 39 71 / 10 20 0 0 Brownwood 33 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 34 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 37 59 37 70 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 36 58 42 68 / 0 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...07