####018008928#### FXUS61 KBOX 190552 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 152 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Splashover to minor coastal flooding possible around the midnight high tide cycle for eastern coastal Massachusetts. Also, the gusts associated with the cold front will bring marginal small craft conditions to the southern waters. Otherwise, forecast hasn't deviated from the previous discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Nuisance coastal flooding, mainly splashover is possible tonight around the midnight high tide cycle for east coast of Massachusetts; including the island of Nantucket. - Steady rain arrives Sunday with the passage of a cold front and a period of breezy northwest winds. Turning much colder Sunday night. - Generally dry but cooler Monday morning. Increasing clouds andspotty rain showers possible Monday afternoon with a weak area of low pressure. - Return to seasonable temperatures through Wednesday before another cold front sweeps through. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Nuisance coastal flooding, mainly splashover is possible tonight around the midnight high tide cycle for east coast of Massachusetts; including the island of Nantucket. Guidance this morning continues to point towards very minor coastal flooding for eastern Massachusetts and Nantucket during the overnight high tide cycle (around midnight). Combination of onshore flow and the astronomical tides could lend to splashover to minor coastal flooding for most vulnerable low-lying locations. And as a result, have opt'd to issue a Coastal Flood Statement. Please avoid any prone area and never drive through standing water. KEY MESSAGE 2...Steady rain arrives Sunday with the passage of a cold front and a period of breezy northwest winds. Turning much colder Sunday night. Rest of Saturday and tonight should remain dry, however, a bank of stratus off the coast will move onshore tonight. Low clouds and few areas of drizzle (mainly across eastern SNE) through Sunday morning, in addition to areas of locally dense fog across eastern MA. As for the rest of Sunday, expecting a raw and chilly day. In fact, high temperatures in the low to mid-50s occur during the late morning, as a strong cold front will move through and send temperatures falling shortly there after. This cold front brings widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder with limited instability. Rainfall rates are moderate to heavy with PWATs 1.2" to 1.4" - rainfall amounts are in the neighborhood of 0.25" to 0.50" with lower totals along and east of I-95. Though, any convective showers have potential for heavier rainfall - cannot discredit the HREF which shows potential for localized values above an inch. And with much colder air advecting into SNE, snow showers remain possible for the highest terrain of western MA. Don't expect any impacts, but a light coating on elevated surfaces remains possible. Associated with the cold front is a brisk NW wind, gusts 20-30 MPH late morning and early afternoon will lead to overall raw and chilly feeling. Clearing Sunday night and easing winds, temperatures fall into the low to mid-30s, while the higher terrain of northern Worcester County and NW MA dip into the upper 20s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Generally dry but cooler Monday morning. Increasing clouds and spotty rain showers possible Monday afternoon with a weak area of low pressure. A colder airmass moves over southern New England Monday in the wake of the cold front from Sunday. 925mb temperatures drop to below 0C and 850mb temperatures drop to near -10C, leading to cooler surface temperatures across the region... coastal regions might reach into the low 50s, but most areas will likely remain in the upper 40s for highs. Breezy westerly winds veering northwesterly early to mid morning with some gusts possible in the higher elevations. Winds will start to diminish as high pressure approaches from the west, and lows Monday night likely fall into the 20s for southern New England, with the exception being the Cape/Islands and immediate coastal regions. As we get into range for high-resolution guidance, confidence is slowly ticking up in a weak area of low pressure spinning up ahead of an approaching high pressure system that leads to increasing cloudiness and spotty rain showers across southern New England Monday afternoon. Exactly where these showers might develop remains uncertain due to the wide range in both ensemble and deterministic model guidance. Otherwise, incoming high pressure should keep the region dry for much of the start of the week before it exits heading into Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4... Return to seasonable temperatures through Wednesday before another cold front sweeps through. High temperatures climb Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front moves through New England later Wednesday, bringing chances for more rain showers. Winds return to southwesterlies, supporting more seasonable highs in the upper 50s/low 60s. Ensembles indicate a ridge building in towards the end of the week then a large low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes over the weekend. This would bring dry conditions through late week then a return for rain chances through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z...High Confidence. IFR/LIFR CIGS will continue through the early morning today along with areas of fog, especially over the Cape and Islands. Winds SE/S 5-10 knots. Sunday...Moderate Confidence. IFR/LIFR through the early morning hours with areas of mist or drizzle. Locally dense fog possible across Cape Cod and Islands through mid-morning. Cold front brings widespread RA from west to east, 12z-15z, SW winds around 10 knots, becoming W/NW and increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-30 knots post-frontal passage. Highest gusts possible over Cape and Island terminals. Sunday Night...High Confidence. VFR. Diminishing wind gusts. W wind 5-10 knots. Monday...High Confidence. VFR. Scattered SHRA possible, but VFR conditions expected to continue. W winds sustained up to 10 kt shifting more NW later in the day. KBOS Terminal... Moderate Confidence in TAF. IFR with periods of LIFR expected through this morning. Cigs down to 100 ft and visbys to 1/4SM cannot be ruled out, but confidence is lower at this time based on surrounding obs. Mentioned in the form of TEMPO for the time being. Pockets of DZ also through early this morning. RA arrives 14z-16z, LLWS possible ahead of the cold front too. Wind shifts to the W/NW by 18z-20z with gusts 20-25 knots. Becoming VFR overnight. KBDL Terminal... Moderate Confidence in TAF. Periods of IFR visbys possible this morning; included in form of TEMPO. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday Night: High Confidence. Overnight there are areas of low clouds and fog, SE to S wind less than 25 knots and seas 2-4 feet. Strong cold front Sunday brings SCA conditions, seas 3-5 feet, and W-NW gust up to 25 knots for southern and eastern outer and waters south of mainland RI Sunday into early Monday morning. Winds shift NW and ease following this frontal passage late Sunday night. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dooley/McMinn AVIATION...Dooley/Hrencecin/McMinn MARINE...Dooley/McMinn ####018008708#### FXUS61 KPHI 190554 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 154 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for much of our NJ and PA zones for Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong cold front will bring rain showers to the area tonight into Sunday. 2. Widespread minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with tonight's high tide. 3. Much colder air early next week with frost/freeze conditions, followed by a return to above average temperatures later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will bring rain showers to the area tonight into Sunday. A cold front will move into the area late tonight and should move off the coast by mid day Sunday. This front, combined with the surface low sliding along the front, will provide enough lift for widespread rain across the area. Chances for measurable rain range from 70 to 90 percent. That being said, this is unlikely to result in substantial rain amounts. Storm (shower) motions should be relatively fast, and the front itself has trended faster. Thus, rain amounts are forecast to be a few hundredths of an inch up to one half an inch. In terms of other hazards, instability, especially surface or low level based instability is forecast to be very limited (less than 50 J/kg of CAPE). Thus the risk for other thunderstorm hazards is very low. That being said, there is some very elevated instability (for parcels above 850 mb), especially west of the fall line, so can't rule out a rumble of thunder or gusty winds. Though this is a strong cold front, the temperature difference won't feel as dramatic as it could, thanks to a marine layer staying mostly in place over our region today. None the less, for most inland areas, temperatures on Sunday will be 5 to 20 degrees colder as compared to Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with tonight's high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, as well as along Delaware Bay and up the tidal Delaware River for the high tide cycles tonight. High astronomical tides associated with the New Moon that occurred yesterday and onshore flow today and tonight is forecast to result in widespread minor tidal flooding with tonight's high tide along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. A northeast to east wind will become southeasterly by later today into this evening, with surge values increasing to near 1 foot above normal. This will put most tidal areas into minor flood stage during high tide tonight. A modest offshore wind will develop in the wake of a cold front on Sunday, which should limit the risk of any additional flooding for Sunday night's high tide. No tidal flooding is forecast for our portion of the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay. KEY MESSAGE 3...Much colder air early next week with frost/freeze conditions, followed by a return to above average temperatures later in the week. A cold mid-level trough, surface high pressure, clear skies, and light winds all look likely Monday night. As a result, we are expecting efficient radiational cooling conditions and a widespread freeze event early Tuesday morning. Frost early Tuesday morning might be somewhat limited given a much drier low-level air mass is expected to be in place. But outside of the larger cities and away from the immediate coast, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing. In some cases, well below freezing. All of our counties now have an active growing season due to the recent excessive warmth. Blooms/vegetation have quickly initiated and in some cases are ahead of schedule. With this mind, a Freeze Watch has been issued for Monday night/early Tuesday morning. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s across the region, which is several degrees below average. A return, southerly, flow will become established Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. This along with an increase in warm air advection and rising heights will result in temperatures climbing back above average Wednesday through Friday. A warm front may arrive at the end of the week. As of now, rainfall Monday through Friday of next week looks to be on the lighter side, maybe a 0.10 to 0.50 for the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 18Z...Expect prolonged MVFR and IFR conditions to continue. The main controlling factor is ceilings, but there have been, and will continue to be some visibility restrictions in BR and FG, especially at KACY. Winds currently are less than 10kt favoring an Easterly direction. At KMIV and KACY, low level wind shear is possible for the next few hours as a low level SSW jet is overhead. Ceilings and visibility are expected to improve, and winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly between 10 and 15Z as a cold front moves through. Winds gusting up to 30kt are possible behind the front. After 18Z...Lower clouds and rain showers will slide east off the coast, resulting in a return of VFR conditions from west to east. Winds will remain out of the northwest, but begin to slowly diminish after 21Z. Tonight...VFR conditions expected. Westerly winds near or below 10kt. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts to around 20 knots Monday, quickly diminishing Monday night. Wednesday...Some MVFR conditions are possible at times due to showers. Thursday...VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Winds will shift to northwesterly and increase quickly behind a cold front later this morning. Guidance has trended windier near the mouth of the Delaware Bay and downstream, which is not uncommon in these flow regimes due to funneling effects along the bay. Therefore, have issued a gale warning for the lower Delaware Bay, the near coastal areas (out to 20 nmi) from Great Egg Inlet NJ to Fenwick Island DE, and the farther marine areas (20 to 60 nmi) from Cape May NJ to Fenwick Island DE. For the rest of the marine areas, winds are expected to stay between 25 and 30 kt during the day time, so a Small craft advisory remains in effect for the rest of the Delaware Bay and near coastal areas (SCAs are not issued for the 20 to 60 nmi marine areas). Once winds diminish by early this evening, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the rest of tonight. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ070-071-106. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Monday for PAZ054-055. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ016. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ012>014-020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ017>019. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ001. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for DEZ001>003. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ002>004. MD...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-450>452. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ431-451>455-481>483-485. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ431-453>455-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Franklin/Gorse/Kruzdlo/Johnson AVIATION...Gorse/Kruzdlo/Johnson MARINE...Gorse/Kruzdlo/Johnson ####018002544#### FXUS63 KPAH 190554 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal conditions will continue into tonight across our entire area, and into Monday across southwest Indiana and adjacent areas of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. - A warming trend will begin Monday into Monday night, with temperatures 10+ degrees above normal by Thursday into Thursday night. - Chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms return late Thursday night, increasing to 60-75% by Friday afternoon through Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Surface high pressure currently over the central U.S. will slide east, becoming centered east of the PAH forecast area by early Monday. Winds out of the west today and north tonight will help keep temperatures below normal through tonight, with highs today in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees, and lows tonight from around 40 to the middle 40s. With the high centered to our east Monday, winds will gradually shift to the south, and this will result in a warming trend through Thursday. After highs Monday from the lower 60s in southwest Indiana to the lower 70s in the Ozark Foothills, Tuesday highs will be 75 to 80 areawide. Tuesday will also be breezy with southwest winds at 10-20mph and gusts around 25 mph. Breezy conditions will return Thursday as south winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. These winds will help temperatures climb into the 80 to 85 degree range. Models bring the cold front just northwest of the PAH fa by 12z Friday, pushing it east of our area by 12z Saturday. The best precipitation chances will be along and ahead of the front. The model blend spreads 20-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms across the PAH fa late Thursday night, with chances increasing to 60-75% Friday afternoon into Friday night. Behind the cold front, 25-50% chances will linger into Saturday, with temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 VFR conditions expected overnight with relatively light winds. West winds will pick up some gusts in the late morning and afternoon Sunday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RST AVIATION...JGG ####018005996#### FXUS64 KLCH 190554 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northerly winds will persist through this morning. Cooler and drier air will remain in place through Monday as these winds begin to ease and become easterly - Gradual warming is expected Wednesday through the end of the week as winds acquire more southeasterly components - Humid conditions also return by the mid week with isolated to scattered rain chances expected into the following weekend && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 A few scattered showers continue to wane off this coast this morning as cool continental air pours southward from the Central Plains. Skies are expected to thin and begin clearing by midday with subsidence aloft drying out the mid levels. Some low level clouds may continue to remain in scattered to broken patches. High temperatures will be notably cooler by 10-15°F- topping out in the low 70s. Gale transitioning to Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist across the marine zones through afternoon with winds/seas gradually easing and abating into the overnight hours. The previous shortwave begins to exit over the New England coast Monday with the following high pressure cell centered across the Ohio valley facilitating moderate ridging off the Gulf Coast. Conditions will remain dry with temperatures beginning to recover into the upper 70s as winds veer easterly. With some fetch cooler waters below the Atchafalaya Delta, skies will retain some cloud cover. The skies begin to thicken on Tuesday as a weak disturbance organizes over northern Texas before moving toward the coast. Highs are expected to be similar as Monday, in the mid 70s. This trough will allow some shower activity across Southeast TX with a little more modest chances across Central LA. Chances for rainfall do increase across far Southwest LA into Wednesday as the coastal trough fetches more southerly moisture advection across the forecast area. Another shortwave trough will organize across the Pacific Northwest Thursday while lingering effects of the coastal trough allow isolated to scattered chances of rainfall locally. Temperatures, however, will further increase into the low 80s for highs. The pattern with respect to precipitation becomes a little more unsettled through the remainder of the forecast period as this shortwave advances east. Given most deterministic modeling keeps this feature well north, we're not expecting a rapid advancing cold front. Instead, a gradient flow will keep PoPs in the forecast while the surface front slowly shifts toward the ARKLATEX region through Saturday. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Light to moderate showers continue to move across the entire area, with a mix of VFR to low IFR CIGs shrouding the terminals about the region. Showers are expected to gradually taper over the next several hours. The cold front has nearly made it through, with strong and gusty northerly flow prevailing in its wake. These winds are expected to remain elevated overnight into tomorrow afternoon before tapering around/after sunset. Along with that, CIGs will continue lifting. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Northerly winds are expected to reach gale criteria for the western marine zones overnight through the late morning hours. As a result, a gale warning remains in effect for the outer Gulf waters west of Intracoastal City for Sunday morning, with a small craft advisory for the remaining Gulf waters and all lakes/bays for this time frame. Conditions will still remain hazardous to small craft into the evening so the small craft advisory will be in affect for all marine zones (excluding lakes and bays) through the early evening hours. Winds remain breezy thereafter but only borderline with SCA criteria considering abating seas. Winds will turn easterly to southeasterly starting Monday night and diminish to around 10-15 kt, which will likely continue for much of the week while gaining more SSE components. A few showers and thunderstorms may become possible towards the middle of the week as disturbance develops near the south TX coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Breezy north to northeast winds in the wake of the front will remain gusty- around 20-25kts through the afternoon. Strong winds and much drier air (minRH values in the upper 20s to mid 30s) will bring slightly elevated fire weather concerns for tomorrow afternoon. However, after receiving a good areawide soaking rainfall, most fire concerns should remain in check therefore no fire weather products have been issued during this forecast package. This dry airmass remains in place for Monday, but fire concerns will decrease as winds will become lighter, around 5-10 kt. By Tuesday, the winds begin shift to the southeast, which will increase RH and chances for subsequent scattered showers over the area that help mitigate fire weather concerns through the remainder of the forecast period. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ430- 432-435-436. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452- 455-475. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ470-472. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...87