####018003059#### FXUS62 KTBW 041826 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 126 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gradually warming temperatures into the weekend. - Next round of rain chances for the area expected this weekend. - Cooler temperatures and rain free conditions return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Troughing continues aloft across much of the country this afternoon as the first in a series of shortwaves migrates along the northern Gulf coast and ridging holds south of Florida. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains south of the region with some unsettled weather moving into the southeast. For tonight into Friday, weak low pressure tries to form over the deep south and then move slowly northeastward, with a few showers reaching our northern forecast area for Friday afternoon as a frontal boundary stalls across the panhandle. Moisture pooling ahead of this feature will lead to increasing shower chances farther south Friday night through Saturday night with increasing cloudiness as well. The boundary finally gets pushed southward late Sunday into Monday and this will bring us the best rain chances area-wide along with a few thunderstorms. By Monday morning, we start to see the drier air across the Nature Coast, but it looks like the rest of the region could still see some lingering showers into the afternoon before clearing out. High pressure then builds in, with cooler and drier conditions in place through mid-week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some patchy ground fog is not out of the question, but chances are too low to mention restrictions at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 East to southeast winds will become south to southwest Friday through the weekend with no headlines expected. A frontal boundary will then move over the waters Sunday into Monday, with winds turning more northerly and increasing to exercise caution levels. Conditions will improve for Tuesday and beyond. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Moisture will increase Friday into the weekend ahead of a frontal boundary which will bring a chance for rain and some thunderstorms, especially Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 80 69 80 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 64 83 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 62 85 65 83 / 0 0 10 20 SRQ 63 79 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 56 82 62 81 / 0 10 30 40 SPG 66 78 70 79 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Carlisle ####018010113#### FXUS61 KBUF 041826 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 126 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Lake effect snow with locally moderate snow accumulations, and gusty winds producing areas of blowing and drifting snow continue this afternoon before dissipating this evening. The coldest airmass of the winter season arrives this evening leading to Friday morning wind chills dropping near to below zero, especially across north- central NY. Mainly dry weather will return by Friday as high pressure briefly builds into the eastern Great Lakes ahead of our next chance for snowfall Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Scattered snow showers will continue through this afternoon east and eventually southeast of Lake Ontario with a cold frontal passage associated with a progressive upper level trough passing through the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. These snow showers will gradually dissipate through the evening. High pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes into the northeast US Friday leading to dry conditions, but cold weather will remain as high temperatures will remain below the freezing mark for most. The next system with another round of snow for much of western NY will begin to approach the region late Friday night. Lake Effect Snow Showers: Snowfall reports from this morning and radar depictions have suggested snowfall rates of up to 1"/hr in the most persistent bands, however more transient snow bands are expected through the remainder of the day. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations shows the frontal boundary approaching southern shores of Lake Ontario. This has begun the transition of lake snows shifting from east of the lake to southeast with winds veering to the northwest. Marginal low-level frontogenesis is present along with frictional convergence near the shoreline that could support the development of a few bands of heavy snowfall and gusty winds 30-40 mph will continue to reduce visibility with blowing and drifting snow. Latest RAP forecast soundings suggests a slight increase in ELs with the frontal passage before beginning to collapse towards 5 kft this evening. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for portions of western and north-central NY through late Thursday afternoon (east of Lake Erie) and early Thursday evening (east of Lake Ontario). Cold Temperatures: Behind the cold frontal passage Thursday, the coldest airmass of the young winter slides overhead with 850mb temps dropping between 18 and 20 degC below zero. These 850mb temps will be near the lowest climatological percentile for early December. With clearing skies in areas outside of lingering lake effect bands and calming winds, Friday morning low temperatures will drop into the lower teens for most with additional area dropping into the single digits. Higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill will see temperatures near 0 degF. With calmer winds, wind chill temperatures will only be a few degrees lower remaining higher than Cold Weather Advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday and Saturday night low pressure will meander across southern Hudson Bay...and in the process will slowly push its trailing cold front eastward from the central Great Lakes and across our region...with the front possibly being preceded by a weak prefrontal trough during the day Saturday. Out ahead of these features...a sheared south-southwesterly flow of just-marginally cold enough air will allow weak lake effect snow showers to initially develop north-northeast of the lakes during the first part of Saturday morning...with the bands then shifting southward and temporarily becoming a little better organized later Saturday morning/Saturday afternoon in tandem with veering of the low-level flow and a commensurate increase in fetch across the lakes...some gradual cooling aloft...and a brief uptick in mid-level moisture. This will not last long though...as by late Saturday/Saturday evening our airmass will have dried back out aloft...with further drying out of the low levels then expected through the balance of Saturday night. With the low level flow further veering from westerly to west-northwesterly during this latter time frame...this will result in the lake effect snow showers weakening across the traditional snow belts east and east-southeast of the lakes Saturday night. With respect to snowfall amounts...these continue to look to only be in the light to modest range Saturday/Saturday night given both the fairly mobile nature of the lake snows (which will cut down on residence time) as well as the only marginally favorable environment initially...the general lack of deeper moisture for much of the time...and a decent amount of shear. In general expect accums to range from 1-2" east of Lake Erie to to 1-3" east of Lake Ontario... with the greatest amounts focused across the higher terrain in both instances. Outside of these...the rest of the area should merely see some scattered light snow showers or flurries with only some very minor accumulations. By Sunday morning only some very limited leftover snow showers/ flurries will be left southeast of the lakes...with these fading away during the morning as the low-level flow becomes unfavorable (east to southeast) out ahead of an advancing weak wave of low pressure...whose existence the guidance suite has come into notably better agreement on since yesterday at this time. The main guidance packages all now suggest that this latter feature will then make its way across or just south of our region later Sunday and Sunday night while bringing a more general round of light to modest snowfall (1- 3"/2-4" in most places...with the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario possibly seeing some marginally advisory-worthy (3-5") amounts. As this system pulls east of our longitude later Sunday night...its synoptic snow will then give way to some weak lingering lake effect snow showers south of the lakes as a northerly flow of much colder and drier air overspreads our region in its wake. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Northerly flow of much colder but dry air will keep scattered light snow showers/flurries going south of the lakes (particularly Lake Ontario) Monday morning...before building low level ridging shuts these down from west to east Monday afternoon. Otherwise Monday will feature our coldest daytime highs of the young winter season to date...with maxes only expected to range from the upper teens across the North Country and higher terrain south of Lake Ontario to the lower 20s elsewhere. After that...the low level ridge will then drift southeast and off the mid-Atlantic coastline through midweek...while a pair of clipper- type systems (the second stronger than the first) make their way eastward/northeastward across the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada/New England...with the guidance suite currently exhibiting a decent amount of spread in the strength and track of these lows. In general this should bring increasing chances for some light to modest synoptically-driven snow showers to our region as we push through midweek along with at least a modest warming trend...with the latter also possibly allowing some rain to mix in by Wednesday. Following the passage of the second low...much colder air then looks poised to return by Thursday along with renewed chances for lake effect snow showers downwind of the lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR conditions across many area terminals early this afternoon with gradual improvements as a cold front moves through the area. Lake effect snow continues east and southeast of Lake Ontario while areas east of Lake Erie have been mostly reduced to scattered light snow. Through this afternoon, brief reductions in visibility will be possible with any heavier bands of snow passing through the area. KROC is the terminal most likely to see these impacts shortly after 18z. Additionally, gusty northwest winds will continue through the afternoon behind the frontal passage. Gusts 25-35 kt will be possible. Skies will begin to clear tonight, but ceilings could remain around MVFR levels near any lingering lake effect bands southeast of the lakes. Mainly VFR conditions should persist through much of Friday. Outlook... Friday Night...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers. && .MARINE... Gusty winds have begun to turn northwesterly behind the cold frontal passage with high end Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing on Lake Erie and Ontario through this evening. Friday will be relatively calmer before gusty southwest winds return with our next system on Saturday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004- 005-012-019-020-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Brothers/SW NEAR TERM...Brothers SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...Brothers MARINE...Brothers ####018007966#### FXUS66 KLOX 041827 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1027 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS...04/227 AM. A moderate Santa Ana wind event will bring gusty northeast winds to portions of southern California today. Cold conditions will bring freezing conditions to some areas each morning today and Friday. A significant warming trend will begin this weekend and peak next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/853 AM. ***UPDATE*** The Santa Ana Winds have been performing better this morning compared to yesterday as expected. Advisory level wind gusts have been observed across typically windy areas this morning, with the Santa Susanas and Western San Gabriels winning this event. A couple gusts even reached 60 mph in these areas. Winds will strengthen and expand especially across coastal and valley areas this morning, then winds are on track to decrease by this afternoon. A few advisory level gusts may linger in the mountain areas a little later. Then slightly more northerly and much weaker winds will likely impact the Western San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains late tonight into Friday morning. Gusts will generally be in the 30 to 40 mph range, with local gusts to 45 mph. 20 to 30 mph winds will likely surface across Malibu to western Santa Monica at times tonight into Friday morning. Widespread lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s were observed across interior areas this morning, and another chilly night is on tap. Most coasts and valleys south of Point Conception will cool slightly due to the decrease in offshore winds tonight, while interior areas will warm a couple degrees. The only exception to the coasts would be Malibu, where downsloping northerly winds overnight will likely keep overnight lows a bit more elevated. ***From Previous Discussion*** A low end Santa Ana wind event is just starting. Currently the offshore gradients are between 3 and 4 mb offshore and will peak between 4 and 6 mb later this morning. There is a little upper level support along with a little cool air advection to help the winds along. Wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph will develop in the Santa Ana wind corridor (10 miles or so around a line from the Santa Clarita vly to the western Santa Monicas). There will be isolated gusts to 55 mph along the windiest mountain ridges. Away from the winds, the cool and dry airmass along with clear skies will allow for rapid cooling and freeze warnings are in effect for the far interior including the Antelope Vly. A Frost advisory is in place for the Cuyama Vly and the Antelope Vly foothills. The offshore flow will warm most areas 1 to 3 degrees. The Central Coast will be the exception where 4 to 5 degrees of warming will occur. The Antelope Vly will cool some as cool air advects in from the high desert. Most max temps will come in near normal today. It will be cold again in the wind sheltered locations tonight and a freeze watch is in effect for the same areas under a warning this morning. Not too much to talk about for the Friday and Saturday forecasts. An upper high will nose in from the west and hgts will push up to 582 dam. The offshore flow will continue, but will be weaker than today, and this will keep the low clouds away. There will be some gusty canyon winds in the morning, but with no upper support and weaker gradients they will not reach advisory levels. The weakening offshore flow will bring two days of cooling to most of the csts and lower vlys while the rest of the area warms under sunny skies and rising hgts. By Saturday the mtns and interior will will end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The nearshore area, however, will be a degree or two under normal. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/303 AM. Good agreement with all medium range mdls and ensembles. Ridging is forecast to persist over the area. Hgts will increase to at least 586 dam by mid week. Offshore flow will persist through the period and should eliminate or at least greatly minimize the low cloud coverage. The Long Beach area and western SBA county stand the greatest chc of seeing some morning low clouds. The offshore flow will not be strong enough to generate any advisory level winds. That leaves the temperatures, which will be the main talking point for the xtnd forecast. It looks like there will be three days of warming everywhere with just a little nearshore cooling Wednesday as the offshore flow weakens some. Went above guidance for the Tu and Wed temps as usually the blended algorithms are slow to catch on to events that are well out of the norm. Right now it looks like there will be 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day except Tuesday and for the coastal cooling Wednesday. Tuesday should see 3 to 6 degrees of warming. Max temps Tue and Wed will end up 10 to 15 locally 20 degrees over normal. Vly temps will be in the 80s and there is an outside shot of isolated 90 or 91 degree readings. && .AVIATION...04/1827Z. At 1801Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in the current forecast, except low-to-moderate confidence for KPRB. There is a 40% chance that conditions will remain MVFR or VFR tonight at KPRB. Periods of moderate low- level wind shear are possible through 20Z. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of east wind component between 6-8 kt from 05Z-14Z Fri. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...04/854 AM. Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher confidence in the forecast for seas versus winds. At east-facing harbors, including Avalon Harbor on Catalina Island and Smugglers Cove on Santa Cruz Island, there is a 40-50 percent chance of east winds affecting these harbors today. For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast and outside the southern California bight, winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Friday morning, then there is a high-to-likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of SCA level winds between Friday afternoon through Sunday. There is a moderate chance of SCA level winds lingering into Monday afternoon and evening. Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a high- to-likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of gusty northeast to east winds this morning, highest between Rincon Point to Santa Monica and into the San Pedro Channel. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels this afternoon, but there is a moderate-to-high (30 to 50 percent) chance of SCA level winds redeveloping again tonight through Friday morning. Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels through the weekend. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning for zones 87-349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Freeze Watch in effect from late tonight through Friday morning for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/Lewis AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...Hall SYNOPSIS...RK weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox