####018006628#### FXUS61 KCTP 260250 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1050 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry cool and dry conditions with widespread frost and freeze conditions expected Friday morning. Clouds will increase late Friday leading to a chance of showers Friday night and into the weekend before it turns much warmer for Sunday and even warmer still for most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... The low/cu clouds are dissipating over most of the area as we lose heating. But, weak convergence over the Lower Susq and Laurels is keeping them in place over the last few hours. High clouds continue to stream over the southern tier, too. Sky fcst is right on target for all the reasons mentioned below, so few changes there. NAM and a couple HREF members actually make spotty, very light precip (DZ?) in the SW. That is not out of the question with SSE flow upsloping into the Laurels. But, it's probably not worthy of PoP > 10pct. The Lower Susq may be spared a widespread frost if the clouds linger longer there longer than expected. But, we'll keep hold of the frost advy at this point. Prev... Partial clearing has worked into my southern counties this afternoon with still mostly cloudy conditions over the Laurel Highlands thanks to weak upslope flow and stubborn inversion. This trend will continue tonight as strong sfc high builds over eastern PA and return (locally upslope) flow arrives over western PA. The result will be another chilly night with better radiative cooling conditions over central and southeast portions of central PA than last night, while upslope cloudiness keeps clouds in play over the southwest. Coordinated another round of Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories for tonight where the growing season has begun, with highest confidence for freezes over the NW Mountains. The Lower Susq will radiate efficiently and local cold spots like THV may approach 32F, but feel that most areas of York and Lancaster County will range between 33F and 35F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Friday will be another fair day under the influence of retreating high pressure, with return flow freshening over western areas, and especially the Laurel Highlands. Rain free wx conditions will continue with morning sun mixing with high clouds throughout the day and max temps trending warmer into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Showers along a warm front are likely to move into the western Alleghenies very late Fri night or early Saturday morning based on the latest operational model/ens consensus. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An approaching warm front will result in a cloudy and relatively cool Saturday, with a chance of showers accompanying the passage of a weakening low level jet. Weak large scale forcing under an upper level ridge should result in minimal rainfall. Most likely rainfall by Sat PM based on ensemble plumes ranges from around 0.2 inches over the N Mtns, to just a few hundreths over the southeast counties. Brightening skies and markedly warmer conditions appear likely Sunday, as the warm front lifts north of the region. However, ensemble plumes indicate scattered PM convection is possible, especially over the N Mtns, where progged pwats are highest and temps aloft coolest. Fair and unseasonably warm weather is likely Monday, as anomalous upper level ridge crests over the state. Mean 850mb temps near 15C supports max temps in the low to mid 80s. All medium range guidance points to a good chance of PM convection Tuesday associated with the passage of a mid level shortwave. Diverging model solutions and greater uncertainty then creep into the forecast the second half of next week. Upper level ridging and above average temperatures look very likely. However, timing differences exist with regard to an upstream trough and associated cold front late next week. Expect a widespread round of convection to accompany the front either Thu PM or Friday. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure passing north of PA will provide most of Central PA with VFR conditions and light winds tonight. However, lingering low level moisture could potentially result in a period of low cigs/fog across parts of Southern PA around dawn. Current model guidance indicates the odds of reductions are relatively low (<25pct) at AOO, MDT and LNS. However, model soundings and ensemble prob charts support a >50pct chance of MVFR cigs at JST and even ~25pct chance of IFR cigs around dawn. The threat of low clouds/fog will diminish Friday, as drier air mixes to ground level. However, ensemble prob charts suggest an upsloping southeast flow could potentially result in lingering MVFR cigs across the high terrain of Somerset County through the afternoon. Outlook... Sat...Scattered shra. IFR cigs possible Central Mtns. Sun...AM low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns. Isold PM tsra possible. Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Sct PM tsra impacts possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fuel moisture may fall below 10% over the next two days. With light winds today, the risk of fire spread remains very low. However, return flow around departing high pressure on Friday may increase the potential for spread on Friday afternoon. MinRH this afternoon (Thu) is forecast to drop to 15-25% over the northern half of the area with potential downside to 10%. MinRH over the southern tier districts along the MD line is forecast between 30-40%. The wind will <10 mph from the north/northeast. MinRH is forecast to recover a bit Friday afternoon bottoming in the 25-40% range. However, the wind will increase from the south southeast with gusts to 20 mph at times over the higher terrain along the southern Allegheny Plateau. Increasing low level moisture/dewpoints along with some rain will limit fire weather concerns this weekend. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ004-005-010- 011-017-018. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ019-024>028- 045-046-049>053-056-057-059-063-065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/NPB AVIATION...Fitzgerald FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl ####018007455#### FXUS63 KMKX 260251 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 951 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern Friday afternoon through this weekend. Multiple rounds of showers/storms will result in locally heavy rainfall. - Severe storm risk possible Friday through this weekend, with uncertainty remaining in exact timing and placement. - Additional chances for precipitation mid to late week next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 940 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Current forecast remains on track with patchy frost possible along the Kettle Moraine and west-central WI as temps dip into the mid to upper 30s with light winds. Elsewhere looks to remain warm enough to limit frost development. Otherwise, expecting our active pattern to begin Friday with showers spreading in along the low-level WAA through the afternoon with a narrow window for some elevated stronger storms Friday evening/night with a lifting warm front. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Tonight through Friday night: Low pressure deepening in the lee of the Colorado Rockies overnight will increase the PGF across southern Wisconsin as a warm frontal feature lifts slowly towards the region. Expecting mainly dry conditions throughout the overnight hours, although cloud cover and southeasterly winds are expected to increase from west to east overnight into Friday morning. The first rain shower activity looks to be lacking in CAPE and favorable lapse rates, so expecting an initial round of light to moderate rainfall Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Late Friday afternoon into Friday evening as the surface warm front lifts northward into central Wisconsin and low pressure pushes northeastward into the northern Great Plains, MUCAPE above 500 J/kg and mid level lapse rates (700 to 500 mb) between 6.5 and 7 degrees C/km may lead to elevated thunderstorms hail cores. 0 to 3 km helicity is also quite high (300 to 500 m2/s2), but a thick stable layer near the surface should keep convection elevated. Mid level lapse rates continue to increase overnight to 7 to 7.5 degrees C/km, while MUCAPE in far southern Wisconsin increases to near 1000 J/kg. However, the warm front progressing farther northward will remove a trigger from the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. Any convection that does develop will be isolated during this time period. MH && .LONG TERM... Issued 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Saturday through Thursday: Saturday, some clearing is possible as southern Wisconsin remains in the warm sector. GFS indicates potential for an outflow boundary from overnight Plains convection to produce thunderstorms across southwestern Wisconsin as early as Saturday morning, although confidence in this feature is low due to the necessitation of precursory convection. Southerly winds and increasing temperatures within the warm sector will result in high temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoint temperatures in the lower 60s. Plenty of MUCAPE (global models are noting a potential of over 1500 J/kg), a warm and moist surface layer, and bulk shear of 40 to 45 kt all support sustained convection. However, trigger placement and timing is the main question for convective potential on Saturday. As the original parent low moves northward into Ontario, its weak cold front interacts with a developing warm frontal feature associated with a second low developing off the lee of the Colorado Rockies. This frontal feature is modeled to remain hovering over central Wisconsin to central Iowa, but its exact location remains in question. As the main trigger to convection for the Saturday time period, the timing and placement of this feature will be pivotal in the intensity and placement of widespread convection. As the second low pressure system propagates along its warm front into the Upper Midwest on Sunday, WAA continues across southern Wisconsin. Disparities from run to run and model to model continue into Sunday as well as far as the northern extent of the warm frontal boundary, and therefore how far north into central Wisconsin warm, moist, unstable air is able to remain in place. The cold frontal passage of this second low pressure system Sunday afternoon into Sunday night will be the main trigger for convection. This day remains most in question as far as intensity of any severe weather, due to its dependence on frontal timing. Will continue to monitor as the event approaches. From Saturday through Sunday, PWATs of 1 to 1.5 inch are forecast across the region, leading to locally heavy rain concerns. Places that see multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be more prone to heavy rain impacts. Cold front moves out by Monday morning, with southwesterly winds and quieter weather expected through Tuesday before additional shortwaves progress across the region midweek. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 945 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail tonight into Friday morning. Then as low pressure gradually slides east across the Plains, expect southeasterly winds to increase through the morning. Shower timing looks to be slightly more delayed with limited morning chances, but increasing from the west-southwest through the afternoon and evening. As a surface warm front lifts northward through the evening, that is when we expect to see some the heavier shower activity and lower flight conditions to spread in across southern WI through the evening. While thunder is not looking likely for the initial rounds of showers, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder along with some small hail and gustier winds Friday evening and night. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 318 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Light winds continue into this evening as high pressure of 30.4 inches remains in place over the northern Great Lakes region. As this high exits eastward and low pressure of 29.3 inches develops in the central Great Plains overnight, southeast winds will begin to increase. As low pressure approaches Minnesota Friday into Friday night, expect southeasterly winds to continue to increase, with some gusts approaching gales possible Friday night into Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory for wind and waves is in effect for nearshore regions throughout this time period. Another low pressure system around 29.5 inches will move northeast across the Great Lakes Region Sunday into Monday, which will bring gusty southerly winds to the southern half of the Lake and northeasterly winds to the northern half. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Sunday night, with the best chances for thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday afternoon and night, and Sunday afternoon and night. MH && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Friday to 7 PM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018005514#### FXUS65 KBOI 260251 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 851 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .DISCUSSION...A robust upper-level low is progressing eastward toward the Oregon coast tonight, sustaining widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms along a cold front across much of the forecast area. Thunderstorms have been observed primarily near the Idaho/Nevada border, where the day's highest instability and surface heating occurred. The cold front recently passed through the Boise Metro area around 8 PM, bringing light rain and gusty winds reaching up to 40 MPH. It is anticipated to continue its eastward journey, reaching Mountain Home by around 10 PM and Twin Falls and Jerome by approximately 1 AM MDT. Showers will follow in the front's wake. While showers are expected to taper off across Southeast Oregon after midnight, they will persist across southwest Idaho until sunrise Friday. Convective showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to redevelop early Friday afternoon as the upper- level low moves through the region. Breezy northwesterly winds on Friday will contribute to keeping temperatures just below normal. The forecast has been updated to align more closely with radar trends observed this evening, and slightly stronger winds are anticipated tonight. An updated forecast will be released shortly. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR. Cold front bringing widespread showers/weak thunderstorms moving west to east through E Oregon and SW Idaho tonight. Cold front/showers bringing local MVFR conditions, gusty winds, and bursts of precip tonight into early Fri. Snow levels 5000-6500 ft MSL. Mountains obscured in w-central Idaho. Surface winds: W to NW 5-15 kt. Gusts to 30-35 kt with front and in stronger showers. Friday afternoon winds becoming W to NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...Mainly VFR. Cold front bringing rain showers, outflow wind gusts to 20-30 kt tonight. Ceilings generally 5000-7000 ft AGL overnight. Thunderstorm chances less than 10% tonight. Showers exiting to the east after Fri/08Z. Surface winds outside of showers: W-NW 5-15 kt, increasing to W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt Friday afternoon. There's a 15% chance of showers returning after Sat/00Z. Weekend Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers Saturday and Sunday over the mountains, with mostly dry conditions and decreasing clouds elsewhere. Mountains obscured in showers. Snow levels: 4000-6500 ft MSL Saturday, 6000-7000 ft MSL Sunday. Surface winds generally W-NW 10-25 kt. Gusts to 30-40 kt for KMUO to KJER/KTWF Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...A shortwave trough pushing in from the coast will advance a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms as it moves through the region overnight. For now have limited the mention of thunder to SE Oregon zones as later timing is less favorable east of the ID/OR border. Gusty outflow winds of up to 40 mph will accompany the line of precipitation. The upper trough slows its eastward movement on Friday as energy closes off over the Great Basin. Daytime instability will feed shower and thunderstorm development mostly over higher terrain. The cold air aloft could support graupel or small hail on strong cells with wind gust potential to 35 mph. For the bulk of the precipitation snow levels will be above 6kft MSL which will limit accumulation to the higher peaks. Through Saturday morning snow totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected above 6500 feet in the w-central Idaho mtns and eastern Boise mtns. Much of the area dries out on Saturday while moisture wrapping around the exiting trough keeps a 20-40% chance of showers over w-central Idaho through the afternoon. The dry westerly flow continues into Saturday night with any small chance of showers (15-25%) limited to northern Valley County. Temperatures are near normal through Saturday. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models are in excellent agreement starting the long term off with WNW flow aloft Sunday, becoming zonal Monday into Tuesday. This will bring in a chance (10-30%) of showers mainly in the northern mountains and along the ID/NV border on these days. The first notable disagreement in the latest deterministic runs arrives Wed, as the EC depicts a strong upper low moving across northern ID while the GFS shows dry zonal flow. Comparing these to the available ensemble runs shows that the EC is an outlier (15% of the spread). Therefore, the forecast favors the drier GFS, but still holds on to a chance (still 10-30%) of showers mainly in the northern mountains. Models remain out of synch with each other into Thu, but there is general agreement that another upper low will approach the Pacific Coast Thu. This is likely to bring cooler and wetter weather late next week and into next weekend. Overall, temps will be near normal Sun-Tue, then above normal Wed and Thu, with Wed the warmest day next week. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....SP ####018008813#### FXUS61 KOKX 260251 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1051 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure building in through tonight will remain over the region into Saturday. A warm front lifts north of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by high pressure through Monday. A cold front approaches Tuesday and moves across the region Tuesday night. Another cold front may pass through late Wednesday or next Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Forecast on track with only minor changes needed for temperatures and dew points in some of the outlying areas. Northern stream trough remains over northern New England/SE CT tonight, with Canadian high pressure building in from the northwest through tonight. Ideal radiational cooling conds tonight with fresh Canadian airmass, clear skies, and light winds. Lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for interior of NE NJ, LoHud, and S CT, and pine barrens of LI where freeze warnings have been posted. Frost conditions for all but NYC/NJ metro and immediate surroundings tonight with lows in the mid 30s. Lows around 40 for NYC/NJ metro. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Northern stream shortwave trough gradually slides east on Friday, with upper ridging building in from the west Fri Night into Saturday. At the same time, good agreement in a vigorous closed upper low over the northern plains on Friday shearing into Ontario on Saturday. At the surface, the center of Canadian high pressure builds over the area Friday morning and sinks south of the region late Friday into Saturday. Unseasonably cool airmass remains over the region on Friday with light northerly flow giving way to aggressive afternoon sea breeze development once again. Despite plentiful sunshine and deep mixing, 850 temps just below freezing will only have temps topping in the upper 50s to around 60 (several degrees below seasonable). Another night of good radiational cooling conds Fri Night, although with a slightly moderated and moistened airmass, temps should be a few degrees warmer than tonight. Will likely have temps dropping into the lower to mid 30s with frost conditions across interior of NE NJ, LoHud, and S CT, and pine barrens of LI. Continued moderation of airmass on Saturday with strengthening return flow around high pressure to the SE and approaching warm front to the west. Strong sea breeze signature will likely push maritime airmass well inland and keeping temps several degrees below seasonable once again (upper 50s to around 60) for much of the coastal plain. In addition, increasing high clouds streaming in ahead of approaching warm front and over the top of the ridge axis will likely filter sunshine in the afternoon. Appears any light precip should stay west of the region during the day though. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main story to start the long term will be anomalously strong ridging making its way over the eastern US Sunday into Monday before potentially breaking down Tuesday. A few shortwaves likely pass across the northeast Tuesday night into Thursday. The modeling is in good agreement through Monday on the larger scale pattern before timing/amplitude differences arise Tuesday through the middle of next week. *Key Points* *Mainly dry conditions expected with a few low chances of showers both Saturday night/early Sunday and then again Tuesday into Tuesday night. *A warming trend is likely to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday with temperatures potentially reaching 10-15 degrees above normal Monday, especially away from the immediate coast. *Temperatures remain above normal Tuesday through next Thursday. A warm front lifts over the area Saturday night and should end up north Sunday morning. Heights aloft are rising through this time frame and lift is weak. A few showers are possible with the front, especially across the interior Saturday night. The continuation of the building ridge over the eastern states on Sunday will likely result in at least partial clearing through the day. A SW flow develops behind the passage of the warm front allowing temperatures to warm significantly compared to recent days. There is a significant amount of spread in high temperatures for Sunday, especially for locations away from the immediate coast. For some of the warmer locations the NBM deterministic actually falls below the 25th to 75th percentile of the ensemble. There should be enough clearing along with building heights aloft and little onshore flow influence for temperatures to end up on the higher side. Have decided to blend in the NBM 50th percentile for now away from the coast which yields highs middle to upper 70s. The 75th percentile of the NBM indicates temperatures could reach or exceed 80 degrees. Onshore flow over Long Island and southern CT likely holds temperatures in the 60s with some locations potentially close to 70 degrees. The ridge axis will be overhead on Monday. Strong subsidence will likely lead to even warmer temperatures compared to Sunday. The NBM deterministic is near the 25th percentile with much of the spread on the warmer side of the warmer side of the ensemble. Have once again blended in the NBM 50th percentile for the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley/interior SW CT. The flow is weak during the first half of the day, but sea breezes should develop in the afternoon. Forecast highs range from the lower to middle 80s in the warmer spots to the upper 60s to middle 70s near the coast. High temperatures spread only increases further on Tuesday. For example at KEWR, the 25th percentile is 71 and 75th percentile is 87 degrees. Given that this is next Tuesday, have gone close to the NBM deterministic for now (60s east and lower to middle 70s west). The warmer highs in the ensemble spread could easily be realized away from the coast if the front is slower and ridge does not break down as quickly. The aforementioned cold front swings through sometime late Tuesday or Tuesday night. A few showers and potentially a thunderstorm could accompany the frontal passage. The CSU MLP has been indicating a very low probability for a severe thunderstorm with this front during its last few cycles. Confidence is very low with any convection at this time range. Confidence is also low in sensible weather details for Wednesday and Thursday and have followed the NBM deterministic. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong high pressure will build in through the TAF period. VFR through the TAF period. S to SE winds will become light and variable overnight. A light NE to E flow late tonight before winds return the S to SE once again late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night: VFR. Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower Sat night into early Sunday morning. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through early next week. Coastal jet development Sat aft could have marginal SCA wind gusts (20-25kt) for ocean waters and nearshore around the entrance to NY Harbor. Warmer air moving over the colder ocean early next week could develop fog, but it is much too early for any specific details on timing and extent. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for CTZ005>008-012. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009>011. NY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ067>070-079- 081. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ078-080. NJ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NJZ002. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NJZ004-103-105- 107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/NV NEAR TERM...JP/DS/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JP MARINE...DS/NV HYDROLOGY...DS/NV ####018004997#### FXUS64 KMEG 260254 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 954 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 A stationary surface front is situated across central MS into southern AR this evening. Meanwhile, an elevated warm front is lifting northeast and a weak mid-level shortwave trough is moving through the upper ridge over the region. These features are combining to generate a band of showers across the northern parts of the Mid-South. Made some adjustments to continue precip chances for a few more hours as latest radar imagery shows light showers as far south as Poinsett County. Precip will gradually taper off after midnight. Saturday looks mainly dry and increasingly warm and more humid as the stationary front lifts north as a warm front during the morning and southerly winds develop. Showers and a few storms will begin to threaten NE AR late in the day. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening, mainly to the north of Memphis ahead of a slow moving warm front. After the warm front moves north of the Mid- South, warmer and more humid conditions will spread into the region on Friday and continue through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over eastern Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel for Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms will become more widespread across the entire Midsouth Sunday night through Tuesday, as a Pacific cold front approaches the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Skies are cloudy across southern sections of the Mid-South with mostly sunny skies over the remainder of the region. Temperatures this afternoon are in the 60s to around 70 degrees. A large area of showers cover much of east Arkansas, southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi. All of this activity is north of slow moving warm front which extends across extreme southern Arkansas and into central Mississippi. As the warm front lifts north into north Mississippi tonight, the area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move north into northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee. Temperatures will remain near normal tonight with lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s. On Friday, the warm front continues to move north into the Mid- Mississippi Valley, bringing an end to the threat of rain for areas east of the Mississippi River. Behind the warm front, warmer and more humid air moves into the region. Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today with highs in the low to mid 80s. A frontal boundary will stall out across the central and southern Plains by Friday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the front with some the activity reaching areas of the Mid-South west of the Mississippi River for Friday night and Saturday. Most areas should see dry weather for Saturday night through Sunday morning as the thunderstorms that develop over the southern Plains on Saturday are not expected to reach the Mid- South. By Sunday, the cold front will begin to move slowly east reaching western Arkansas by Monday and into the Mid-South on Tuesday. As the front gets closer to the region, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage from west to east. Rainfall could become heavy across portions of the Mid-South west of the Mississippi River for Sunday night into Monday. Any threat of severe weather should be confined to areas west of the Mid-South across central and western Arkansas. With extensive cloud cover and rain expected on Monday, temperatures will be cooler. Once the cold front moves through the region, dry weather is expected for Tuesday night. Warmer weather returns to the region for Wednesday with a few thunderstorms possible ahead of an upper level disturbance. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 As a warm front continues to lift north over the airspace, a swath of showers will intermittently affect MKL and JBR over the next few hours. Ceilings along this boundary are around 5 kft AGL and no lightning is expected so aviation impacts will be minimal. A cold front will approach tomorrow, increasing southerly winds to 10-15 kts with gusts approaching 25-30 kts. Another round of precip is expected late in the period after 00Z Saturday, though the thunder potential is a bit more uncertain given the trend toward less instability at the diurnal minimum. A midlevel cloud deck between 5-10 kft looks to persist through the period areawide. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CAD