####018004166#### FXUS63 KLMK 071141 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 641 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A shortwave will bring rain and snow to some tonight into Monday morning. Up to 0.5" is expected in the Bluegrass. * A couple of systems are expected to pass through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night through Thursday. * Cold air arrives for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 431 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Currently, a cold front stretching from Missouri northeast towards the Great Lakes is dropping southeast and approaching the Lower Ohio Valley. This will be located with an inverted surface trough which will help to keep skies mostly cloudy today. Early light WAA will push highs into the 40s before the front arrives and veers winds quickly to the north. Tonight, CAA will cool temperatures into the mid 30s in southern Kentucky to the mid 20s in parts of southern Indiana, and as temperatures are falling, a strong shortwave will push east into the CWA, resulting in increased chances of precipitation. Across southern Kentucky, rain is expected with a mix of snow and rain along the parkways, and mostly snow north of Interstate 64. After midnight, the transition to snow is expected to continue dropping south. There isn't a lot of moisture with this system, so total liquid precipitation amounts are expected to be near 0.05" or less. Many over the northern half of the CWA could see a flurry to a dusting, but those in and around the Bluegrass could see up to around half of an inch or so by the time snow ends Monday morning. Impacts are expected to be limited, but with the threat of a few slick spots on Monday morning a Special Weather Statement was issued for the Bluegrass area with the best chance at seeing the higher amounts. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 431 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Monday, behind the cold front, high pressure tries to bring clearer skies, but this could take most of the day before those in southern Kentucky clear. CAA will limit high temperatures to the 30s, but as the high passes, WAA returns Monday night, lifting Tuesday's highs into the low 40s to low 50s. Tuesday night through Thursday, northwest flow will bring a couple quick moving systems to the region. A low pressure system on Tuesday night or Wednesday is expected to pass over the Great Lakes region. The system's trailing cold front could bring light precipitation before a different low pressure system arrives Thursday. Any precipitation with the first system is expected to fall as rain, but the second system could see some snow, but models still don't have a good handle on timing or details. Still, impacts are expected to be limited with these systems. With the upper ridge amplifying over the West and the upper trough digging deeper over the East, northwest flow will remain in place through at least the weekend. This pattern is expected to bring cooler Canadian air to the Ohio Valley. Falling temperatures are going to be the focus as we are expected to see highs only reach into the upper teens and 20s this weekend with lows in the single digits. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 640 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Ceilings have continued to improve over most areas. All of central Kentucky looks to be VFR, but IFR ceilings remain over HNB and across other sites in southern Indiana. Improvement is expected to continue until ceilings begin falling this afternoon from west to east across the area as a cold front pushes through. Mist is limiting visibilities across the region this morning, but reductions are expected to remain limited. Winds out of the southeast will veer towards the north as a cold front passes. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...KDW ####018006444#### FXUS61 KILN 071141 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 641 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will offer a chance for rain and snow today and tonight. Seasonably cold temperatures will continue through the majority of next week, with multiple systems impacting the region during the mid to late week period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The ILN fa remains in a WAA regime today, resulting in a surge of relatively warmer air in the lower levels. This will alter the thermal profiles aloft and impact the p-type being observed where pcpn falls today. Bufkit soundings continue to show the potential for patchy freezing drizzle early this morning. However, coverage will likely be very limited, and currently there aren't many obs west of our fa showing this weather type. Not anticipating many impacts if this does occur given the isolated nature of this potential. Locations farther south may observe drizzle as well, but freezing drizzle less likely down near the OH River as surface temps quickly warm up after sunrise. As the column continues to saturate, snow potential will increase, mainly for counties along/north of I-70. Forcing remains quite weak with this system in our CWA however, which is keeping PoPs relatively low. Still maintaining that Mercer, Auglaize and Hardin counties have the best chance for some accumulating snowfall. Any snowfall that does occur for areas along/north of I-70 should have limited travel impacts given that pavement temps will be quite warm during the day. Thus, any snow accumulations will primarily be on grassy/elevated surfaces. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Biggest uncertainty with this system will be how much pcpn lingers on the back end. Several CAMs continue to highlight pcpn lingering much longer now into the overnight hours and perhaps even into Monday morning. If this were to occur, rain would eventually transition to snow as thermal profiles cool given the CAA behind the front. Snow potential would be highest in southern OH/IN and northern KY, but there could be light snowfall as far north as I-70. Some accumulations are possible in our far southern counties, primarily along/south of the Ohio River. If this scenario where to play out, some snow could certainly stick to the roadways and impact the morning commute Monday, but in general, any impacts expected to be fairly minimal. Probabilities are extremely low for accumulations greater than 1" in our south, but a few tenths of an inch are not entirely out of the question. Will have to continue to monitor trends with this potential. Any lingering snow will eventually taper off Monday morning as the cold front surges south and high pressure builds in. Highs will continue to trend below seasonal normals in the middle 20s to middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad surface high will be moving off to the east at the start of the period; though quiet conditions will result in Monday's overnight low temperatures falling into the teens to low 20s. Behind the high, two fast moving Clipper systems race toward the Great Lakes region. The first of the two moves through Monday night/Tuesday with the majority of guidance keeping the track of this system well north of our area. Trends have shifted moisture content north as well, resulting in a dry forecast for our area. The pressure gradient tightens with the passage of this feature, resulting in some breezy conditions at the surface, particularly north of I-70 throughout the day on Tuesday. The second Clipper-esq system Tuesday night/ Wednesday will be a bit more robust, as guidance suggests it deepening as it digs into the larger flow over the Great Lakes. A pretty potent LLJ and tightened gradient will also move through the region with this wave, resulting in gusty conditions on Wednesday (gust to 30-35 MPH or so possible). Guidance continues to shift the track of this system farther north as well, placing the ILN CWA more comfortably in the warm sector, resulting in a more rain solution across the region Wednesday daytime. However, cannot rule out some snow showers on the back end of the system with any lingering wrap around moisture sometime Wednesday night into Thursday. The end of the week, guidance gets a bit more convoluted as additional shortwaves are forecast to move through the region, bringing continued chances for precipitation. Despite details on precip and precip type being scarce, there is a decent signal for stronger cold air advection to move back into the region, resulting in temperatures falling well below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CIGs gradually improving to VFR for a brief period today ahead of the cold front. MVFR vsbys are lingering into the early morning hours, but should improve back to VFR early in the taf period. Confidence remains low on pcpn reaching KCMH/KLCK and KDAY this morning/afternoon ahead of the cold front. KDAY could observe a brief period of -FZDZ during the first couple hours of the taf period, but coverage remains isolated enough to not warrant a mention in the tafs. MVFR CIGs become widespread again behind the cold front, which will move through this afternoon. Lower confidence in IFR CIGs behind the front, but there would be higher chances of this occurrence with any lingering pcpn tonight. General thinking remains on track that KILN and KCVG/KLUK have the best chance at observing pcpn tonight, primarily in the form of snow (some rain may be observed before a full transition occurs). Cannot rule out light snow across our northern terminals, but confidence is lower on the northern extent of pcpn. Improvement to VFR CIGs expected to occur late tonight from north to south, so began to show this trend in the tafs. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR CIGs likely Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty winds possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CA AVIATION... ####018004083#### FXUS62 KTBW 071141 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 641 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog expected early Sunday morning across southwest Florida. - Rain chances increase later today and tonight. - Cooler and drier conditions return early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Areas of MVFR CIGs are impacting TPA/PIE/LAL, with IFR/LIFR CIGs at SRQ/PGD/RSW/FMY. Patchy fog has been limited to the SW FL terminals PGD/FMY/RSW so will hold IFR/LIFR conditions at those terminals through 14Z. Conditions are slow to improve becoming MVFR likely after 17Z. Showers and storms move into the area this afternoon, so will hold VCSH/VCTS starting at 20Z for TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ and 00Z for PGD/FMY/RSW. Winds outside of showers and storms will remain less than 12 knots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A frontal boundary extends across the central Florida peninsula just north of the Sarasota area and has been sinking very slowly south. It should become stationary just south of the Sarasota area in the next couple of hours with boundary layer winds north of the boundary out of the northeast, and to the south of the boundary out of the south. This will be the demarcation between areas of fog developing south of the front by sunrise which will be locally dense, and low clouds/patchy fog north of the boundary. A dense fog advisory may be needed for areas south of the frontal boundary later tonight. The fog/low clouds will lift by mid morning today, however mostly cloudy skies will persist through the afternoon...although skies may become partly cloudy across southwest Florida for several hours before the clouds spread over that region. The frontal boundary across the central peninsula will dissipate today with winds shifting to the south and southeast across the region as a much stronger cold front currently over the southeast U.S. begins to push down across north Florida with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms mainly across the nature coast. The cold front will push south across the Florida peninsula Sunday night and early Monday. Numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread across the forecast area ahead of the front. High pressure will build over the Florida peninsula in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night with clearing skies and cooler drier air advecting across the region. The area of high pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida through mid week with temperatures running near climatic normals with highs in the mid to upper 60s north to the mid 70s south...and lows in the 40s north, lower to mid 50s central, and upper 50s to around 60 south. A gradual warming trend will develop late in the week ahead of the next cold front which is expected to move across the area Friday and Friday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A cold front will push across the waters late today and tonight with showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading over the region from north to south. Winds will shift to the north/northwest in the wake of the front Monday and Monday night and will increase to cautionary levels. Winds/seas will subside Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will hold over the waters through mid week with no headlines expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 68 77 55 / 60 80 30 0 FMY 84 70 80 58 / 20 50 50 0 GIF 83 67 77 54 / 50 80 40 0 SRQ 81 67 77 54 / 50 80 50 0 BKV 80 60 75 46 / 60 90 30 0 SPG 78 69 75 57 / 60 80 40 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery ####018007997#### FXUS62 KILM 071144 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 644 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather today will be followed by one last round of cold rain or drizzle on Monday as a disturbance moves through. Cold and dry high pressure will build over the area into Tuesday. Temperatures return back to normal midweek as high pressure shifts off the coast. Rain chances increase Friday ahead of a cold front, with more cold air arriving for next weekend. && .UPDATE... Update to remove Dense Fog Advisory from WWA line. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Another cloudy and cool day on tap, although rain chances will be drastically reduced. In fact, other than maybe a few spits of drizzle/mist in the AM bulk of the forecast area will remain dry. The front that had been lingering closer to the coast has finally been pushed farther offshore and much drier air aloft is spreading over the region. The boundary layer remains very moist, nearly saturated, and is the reason for the widespread fog and low cloud. Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all but the coastal counties and it's possible some of the denser fog bleeds into these areas as well, if winds drop off and skies continue to clear out. Fly in the ointment with respect to fog is the trough moving across the area. The resulting wind shift is also leading to an increase in boundary layer winds, just enough to mix out dense fog. Once winds drop back near calm visibility will drop under 1 mile. Low levels remain moist today and the stable air mass will resist mixing. The result will be clouds and fog hanging around through the morning and possibly the first part of the afternoon. Do expect to see some late day clearing which will help highs a bit, especially inland, however highs will once again come in below normal with many areas not hitting 50. Any clearing today is short lived as the next system, another southern stream shortwave moves in from the west- southwest. Moisture ahead of this feature shows up late in the day with increasing and thickening cirrus. Rain chances through daybreak Mon will be limited by lingering dry air below 4k ft and the lack of forcing. What little isentropic lift is present is within the layer of dry air through the end of the near term. Lows tonight will end up near normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave will be moving through the Carolinas as it rounds the base of a very broad trough on Monday. This will bring one last round of cold rain before drying takes place as it lifts off to the northeast into Mon eve. This shortwave will help deepen sfc low offshore with increasing northerly flow helping to advect in cold air. Temps may struggle to get much past 40 in a stiff northerly wind with cold rain or drizzle on Mon. Wind chill temps should be in the 30s as northerly winds increase. Soundings show a fairly deep saturated column to start on Mon with cold rain, but as the column dries from the top down into the evening, the temps drop down below freezing. The moisture at this point will only be limited to the first few thousand feet and therefore even if the sfc temp drops below freezing, will not get anything more than freezing drizzle. Also, the ground temps will be too warm to worry about anything. The typical cold air chasing the moisture and for now, sfc temps will remain above freezing until pcp ends. As the trough axis in the mid to upper levels shifts offshore into Mon night, deep cold and dry air will help scour out the airmass. CAA will bring some chilly overnight lows with temps already down near freezing by late Mon eve and dropping down into the 20s across the area for lows. After a chilly start on Tues, temps will rebound into the 40s for one last chilly day but winds will diminish as center of high shifts nearly overhead. This will lead to another cold night Tues with temps down near freezing or below. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The center of the high shifts offshore and weakens with a return flow setting up for Wednesday. A fairly zonal flow will exist with a very broad trough across the CONUS. Overall, warming will take place with temps finally making it back around normal in a southerly return flow. High temps will be back within a few degrees of 60 Wed through Fri and lows will be back toward 40 or above. By Fri digging mid to upper trough pushes a cold front into the Carolinas. Should see increasing clouds and chc of pcp, although it does not look like there will be much moisture return so not expecting much with this system. Once the system shifts off shore later on Friday, deep cold air will run down from Canada, leaving a chilly but dry weekend as high pressure builds in. Temps will drop well below normal by Sat with highs in the 40s once again. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread IFR this morning with a mix of low stratus and fog, with dense fog west of I-95. Dense fog may spread a bit farther east during the next hour or so. IFR will persist into late morning, possibly lingering into the first hour or two of the afternoon. There is very dry air above the boundary layer, but the stable nature of the air mass will limit mixing. Weak mixing will help keep low cloud in place. Eventually the dry air will win out, but it will take a while. Light winds from the east to northeast will contribute to the low level stability and not provide much help as far as mixing goes. Once ceilings do start to lift/break should be a relatively quick clearing process. High clouds thicken later today with bases gradually lowering this evening and overnight as the next system approaches. Boundary layer mixing will be strong enough to all but eliminate any significant fog threat. However, MVFR ceilings arrive at SC terminals just before sunrise. IFR ceilings will hold off until beyond the end of the valid TAF period. Extended Outlook...Mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings Monday with IFR likely Monday night. VFR returns Tuesday lasting through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...North to northeast flow through tonight as high pressure to the north slowly migrates east. Ill-defined gradient into this evening will keep flow around 10 kt. Approach of the next system, expected Mon, increases the gradient tonight with northerly flow increasing to near 15 kt with gusts in excess of 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft into tonight before increasing winds build seas to 2-3 ft overnight. An easterly swell will be dominant today, but the northeast wind Monday through Thursday... Shortwave will help to deepen low pressure offshore helping to tighten the gradient as high pressure builds in behind it. This will produce stiff northerly winds increasing through Mon up to 20 to 25 kts. This will help to push seas up to 4 to 6 ft on Mon and possibly up to 5 to 8 ft Mon night. Small Craft Advisory conditions should begin as early as noon on Monday and will last into Tues before diminishing as high pressure migrates overhead. by Tues evening a light return flow will develop as high pressure makes itself farther offshore. This will allow seas to drop to 2 to 4 ft Tues night into Wed. Should see winds back around from the north becoming W to SW into Wed. A W-SW flow should persist around 10 to 15 kts through Thurs and may pickup on Fri as a cold front approaches. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...ILM NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III MARINE...III/RGZ ####018006558#### FXUS64 KLCH 071144 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 544 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moisture moving in overnight will develop dense fog over the region, thus a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from southeast Texas into central and southwest Louisiana. - A few scattered showers to isolated storms will be possible late today as a cold front moves through. Rain should be swept out fully by midnight Monday. - Dry and cool conditions Monday will precede a beautiful Tuesday with temps in the 60s. Moderating airmass in the 60s and 70s are expected into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Very warm and humid conditions will lift north through the region overnight as increasing southerly winds aloft lifts north a warm front into north LA. In response to this isentropic lift, expect widespread mugginess, low cloud decks and dense fog into Sunday morning. Temps will warm into the low 70s. This all occurs ahead of a sharp cold front expected to sling through the region late Sunday. So, while it will be above normal warmth, at least it won't last long! Much colder and drier air will sweep through into Monday with much clearer conditions developing within highs in the 50s! Forcing along the frontal axis will combine with less-than-stellar instability to scatter across a few showers and isolated very weak thunderstorms into the area from west to east. Guidance keeps the best instability over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through the early afternoon, but it stands to reason there will be sufficient instability to bring the shower and storm threat into central LA to Lower Acadiana in the evening. All rain threat will be gone by Midnight Monday night. Clear, beautiful conditions with temps in the low 60s expected Tuesday. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Active pattern really ramps up into the longterm period (and beyond) with a parade of trofs and ridges anticipated to move over the region. High pressure moves off to the east quickly on Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday seeing moderating temps in the 70s as well as onshore winds returning moisture once again. A large swinging upper shortwave pulse will usher southward another cold front. However, the front doesn't push through the region until late Thursday or early Friday preceding very robust sfc high. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Areas of fog will continue to develop in the vicinity of all terminals until 14Z with brief dense fog possible. Visibilities should improve by 15Z with fog lifting into an IFR ceiling which will persist through much of the day. A cold front will push through the region this afternoon from west to east. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of this boundary. Winds will veer northwest behind the front and increase overnight gusting as high as 25 knots. While a brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible this afternoon, IFR ceilings are expected to become reestablished after sunset and continue through the night. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Showery rainfall can be expected until late today/early Monday when a sharp cold front moves through. Very strong offshore winds will quickly develop Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all marine zones into mid day Monday. A gradual improvement in wind and sea conditions will take place into Tuesday as offshore winds slow down and return to onshore once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A warm front will lift through the region this morning sending very low ceilings, deep moisture and dense fog across the area. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM. A sharp cold front moves through later today, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms passing in its wake. Not anticipating heavy rainfall or extensive lightning. Much cooler and drier conditions will develop into Monday with daytime minimum RH values in the 50s and 40s anticipated Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Fire weather concerns are not overly anticipated due to the improvement in ground moisture from recent rains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A warm front will lift through the region this morning sending very low ceilings, deep moisture and dense fog across the area. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM. A sharp cold front moves through later today, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms passing in its wake. Not anticipating heavy rainfall or extensive lightning. Much cooler and drier conditions will develop into Monday with daytime minimum RH values in the 50s and 40s anticipated Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Fire weather concerns are not overly anticipated due to the improvement in ground moisture from recent rains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 40 54 32 / 40 10 0 0 LCH 73 46 59 36 / 30 10 0 0 LFT 73 46 57 35 / 50 30 0 0 BPT 75 44 60 38 / 20 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ027>033- 073-074-141>143-241>243. TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ430- 432-435-436. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ430-432. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ435-436. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for GMZ450-452. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for GMZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ475. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...66