####018002851#### FXUS65 KFGZ 100520 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1020 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect warm days, cool nights and very dry weather through this week and into the next. && .DISCUSSION...A dry northwest flow will remain entrenched across the southwest United States into Saturday. Later on Saturday through Monday a weak embedded weather disturbance will deliver slightly cooler temperatures and variable high clouds, but that is about it. Dry northwest flow will return for the remainder of next week. This afternoon through Saturday...A mild and dry air mass with origins from over the central Pacific will result in unseasonably warm daytime temperatures ranging from 10 to 20 degrees above average. The dry air mass and mainly clear skies associated with this pattern will result in strong radiational nocturnal cooling with seasonably chilly overnight lows. Winds will primarily remain light and variable at 5 to 10 mph through the period. The exception, local drainage breezes of 10 to 20 mph south of the Mogollon Rim due to the strong nocturnal cooling. From Saturday into early next week...A weak and dry low pressure system will result in cooler daytime temperatures. Otherwise, look for high clouds from Saturday afternoon into Sunday associated with the core of this weak system. Light winds will continue, southwest to west on Saturday and Sunday shifting to more northwesterly on Sunday and Monday. It appears our dry northwest flow pattern strengthens again later next week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 10/06Z through Thursday 10/06Z...Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. ENE winds 10-15kts develop in the overnight hours downwind of higher terrain features, including terminal KSEZ. OUTLOOK...Thursday 11/06Z through Saturday 13/06Z...Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. ENE winds 10-15kts develop in the overnight hours downwind of higher terrain features, including terminal KSEZ. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry and warm conditions will continue with high temperatures reaching 10-20 degrees above average. Light and variable daytime winds around 5 to 15 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 20-35% each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Dry and warm conditions will continue this weekend with high temperatures reaching 10-20 degrees above average. Light and variable daytime winds around 5 to 15 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 20-35% each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018008147#### FXUS62 KMHX 100520 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1220 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue building into the area through tonight. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds in again Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of another low pressure system potentially impacting the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM Wednesday/... As of 1:20 PM Tuesday... Key Messages... - Cool and dry High pressure continues to build into the area today, which has helped erode clouds over the past few hours. A weak shortwave is approaching the area and coverage of mid and high clouds will increase through the evening as the high moves to our south. Although our winds are expected to become light to calm overnight, cloud cover is expected to be variable, going in and out of periods of clear skies and greater cloud coverage, which will greatly impact how well we radiate. With this being said, there's room for lows to drop below the current forecast (upper 20s across the coastal plain and mid 30s to low 40s at the beaches) should we have longer periods of less cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday/... As of 1:20 PM Tuesday... Key Messages... - Warmer with gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front A northern stream shortwave will dig across the eastern CONUS tomorrow with a surface low moving across the Great Lakes region. A dry cold front will approach the area but won't pass ENC until tomorrow night. Ahead of the front, the gradient will become more pinched and cause an increase in southwest winds. It'll be pretty breezy tomorrow afternoon and evening with 10-15 mph winds gusting to 25-30 mph across the coastal plain. Along the Outer Banks, winds will be 20-30 mph with gusts to 30 to 40 mph. Increasing heights will warm us up a bit, sending highs into the low to mid 50s across the coastal plain and upper 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1:20 PM Tuesday... Key messages... - A dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night - A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday Wednesday night...Southwest winds will veer to the northwest overnight, continuing to gust to 10-15 mph across the coastal plain and 30-40 mph along the Outer Banks. Our warm up tomorrow will keep lows slightly milder tomorrow night with temps expected to reach the mid 30s across the coastal plain and upper 30s to low 40s along the Outer Banks. Thursday through Friday...We'll finish out the week with another round of high pressure. The post-frontal airmass will leave us with mostly sunny skies on Thursday but keep highs a few degrees cooler (mid to upper 40s). Lows will be back into the mid to upper 30s across the coastal plain and mid 30s along the Outer Banks. A passing shortwave will introduce greater cloud coverage on Friday, but flow returning to the southwest will warm us a few degrees with highs ranging from the upper 40s across northwestern zones to mid 50s along the coast. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s for much of the area (low 40s coast). Saturday through Tuesday...Another northern stream shortwave will move across the upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. A surface low lifting across the Carolinas will drag a cold front across the area Sunday evening. The warmest temps of the period will be Saturday and Sunday ahead of this cold front, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s both days. While this FROPA will provide a slightly better opportunity for precip than our front on Wednesday night, it'll still be fairly moisture starved. PoPs are currently slight chance to low end chance across the area on Sunday, but both the EURO and GFS trended drier from their 06z to 12z runs. A cooler airmass will build in behind the front to start next week, knocking highs back down to the 40s Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1215 AM Wednesday... Few changes made to the TAFs as of this cycle as VFR conditions are expected to persist across ENC through the end of the TAF period. Broken high cloud cover will again move over the region over the next couple of hours. With dry low-level air in place and southwesterly winds beginning to increase before dawn this morning, there is only a low chance of patchy shallow fog early this morning (<10%). Have kept the TEMPO MIFG group for PGV with only a small adjustment to timing. Any fog that does form will be of the shallow, non-impactful nature. High clouds will continue through Wednesday, with a chance for a brief period of lower, mid-level ceilings (5-10 kft) later Wednesday evening. Gusty southwesterly winds will bring the potential for gusts up to 25 kts to all terminals on Wednesday (gusts 25-35 kts possible along the OBX Wednesday into Wednesday night). Outlook: VFR conditions expected through this weekend. && .MARINE... As of 1:20 PM Tuesday... Key Messages - Winds and seas gradually diminish through this evening - Southwest winds increase Wednesday and Wednesday night - Gales expected for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet starting tomorrow afternoon - SCAs elsewhere except for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers Today and Wednesday...SCAs are currently in effect for all coastal waters with subsiding 6-8 ft seas. The SCA south of Ocracoke Inlet will drop off around midnight as seas drop below 6 ft. 6 footers will linger across the central waters overnight. 10-20 kt NW winds will weaken tonight as they back to the SW and then ramp up tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds will peak tomorrow evening at 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. The Gale Watch for these zones has been upgraded to a Gale Warning starting at 3 PM tomorrow. The coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet will have a brief period of sub-SCA conditions between tonight and tomorrow morning. However, with the period between this current round of SCA seas and the upcoming round of SCA winds and seas being so brief, the SCA has been extended to cover both events. SW winds will increase through tomorrow, peaking in the afternoon at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt. Seas will build to 4-6 ft. SW winds across the sounds and Neuse and Bay Rivers will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, peaking tomorrow night. SCAs are in effect for these zones starting tomorrow afternoon. Thursday through Monday...High pressure will build across the waters Thursday and Friday, then slide off the coast Saturday. Conditions are expected to drop below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon with descent boating conditions continuing through Saturday. Our next cold front will pass on Sunday, bringing our next chance of SCA winds and seas that could last into the start of next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...ZC MARINE...OJC ####018004947#### FXUS63 KLBF 100520 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - High winds tonight are expected across most of the area. High Wind Warning is in effect for areas across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. - Colder Wednesday then a warm up expected again on Thursday. - Much colder air arrives this weekend as arctic high pressure filters south into the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 High Wind Warning potential is the main concern in the near term. A potent Alberta Clipper system will dive southeastward across the northern plains into mid Mississippi valley this afternoon through tonight. A couple of different shots of stronger wind potential this afternoon and tonight. 1) very strong downslope winds are occurring this afternoon across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. This is a result of high pressure across the higher terrain to the west and falling pressure across the plains due to the deepening surface low associated with the Clipper system. Gusts in excess of 70 mph have been noted across eastern Wyoming and in the higher elevations (Front Range) of Colorado. A recent gust to 69 mph has been noted at the Scottsbluff airport in the western Nebraska Panhandle. Issued a high wind warning for Sheridan and Garden county as some of these stronger gusts to around 60 mph appear they could make it that far east this afternoon before loosing momentum farther to the east. 2) As the surface low migrates southeastward from North Dakota toward Iowa late this afternoon and tonight, expect a strong cold front to surge southward into the area. This cold frontal passage will coincide with steepening O-3km lapse rates, along with a PV anomaly that will move southeastward across north central through central Nebraska. The better mixing in the 0-3km range should allow for strong wind gusts (60 mph) to potentially reach the surface through the overnight hours. For now it appears southwest Nebraska and the southwest portions of the Sandhills should remain just under criteria and won't carry any headlines for these areas. Surface high pressure will quickly build into the area Wednesday. As a result the winds quickly diminish. Colder temperatures will occur behind the front as a modified Canadian airmass briefly crosses the area. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid 30s across north central Nebraska to the mid 40s across southwest portions of the state. Warmer temperatures return Thursday as a leeward surface trough develops and moves east across the area. Highs well into the 60s are expected west of the surface trough (for areas roughly west of Highway 183). Fire weather could become a concern as gusty west winds and lower humidity also develop with the warmer temperatures. Conditions look elevated at this time, but will continue to monitor for greater potential. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Northwest flow aloft continues into the weekend. Strong arctic high pressure will settle southward into the Dakotas with a strong cold front surging southward through the area Friday. A reinforcing cold front then backs in from the northeast Saturday. This will keep portions of north central Nebraska in the teens for highs Saturday. A slow moderation in temperatures is then expected Sunday into Monday. At this time, it appears that most if not all of the precipitation should remain north of the area across South Dakota. Ensemble probabilities confirm this, with precipitation accumulation of 0.01" or greater remaining mostly north of the border. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Gusty northwesterly winds will continue into the overnight at both terminals with wind gusts up to 35 KTS at the KVTN terminal and 30 KTS at the KLBF terminal. There will be a threat for low level wind shear at the KLBF terminal overnight as winds diminish somewhat. Winds on Wednesday will be from the west or northwest at 10 to 20 KTS in the morning, diminishing to under 10 KTS in the afternoon. Skies will be mainly clear tonight into Wednesday morning with scattered ceilings around 20000 FT AGL. Cloud cover will increase Wednesday afternoon with ceilings falling to 6000 to 12000 FT AGL Wednesday evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for NEZ004-022-023-035-036. High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for NEZ005>010-024>029-037-038-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Buttler ####018006027#### FXUS63 KEAX 100520 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1120 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions today with gusts around 25-35 MPH anticipated. Gusts increase overnight and tomorrow morning to 35-45 with some isolated 50+ MPH possible as a front moves through. There are some uncertainties about wind gusts depending on if the push of colder air is able to fully reach the surface. - Above normal temperatures today dip back to seasonal normals Wednesday and Thursday before turning colder with below freezing highs anticipated this weekend. - Small chances for rain/snow tonight and later in the week for far NE MO as waves pass to the north. Accumulations are expected to be minimal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Wind is going to be the theme of today and tomorrow as a compressed pressure gradient combined with enhanced midlevel flow and anticipated diurnal mixing accelerates southwesterly winds with expected gusts of 25-35 MPH across the region. As of early this afternoon, wind gusts have not manifested as anticipated likely due to greater than anticipated cloud cover across northern MO. This has inhibited solar mixing preventing the additional momentum transfer to get gusts going. Eventually, the pressure gradient force and turbulent mixing will create gusty conditions, the magnitude may not be a substantial as initially anticipated. Regardless, the sustained southwesterly flow around 15-20 MPH has pushed warm, southern CONUS air into the region lifting temperatures into the 50s for most sans far NE MO who will still see temperatures in the high 40s. Unfortunately, the warm looks to be short lived as a wave progressing its way across the Upper Midwest drops a cold front across the region which moves through the area overnight into early Wednesday morning. An even tighter pressure gradient resides behind this cold front which abrupt turns winds northwesterly funneling colder air into the region. Turbulent mixing combined with the nocturnal inversion could enhance this pressure gradient, especially vertically, and accelerate gusts to 35-45 MPH even approaching 50 MPH across far northern MO. Some uncertainties in the forecast continue as ensemble guidance remains divergent on gust probabilities. The NBM is fairly pessimistic only keeping far NE MO with chances of advisory level winds. Meanwhile the HREF (which ensembles several CAM models) brings 80-90% chances of advisory level winds nearly to the MO River. Confidence currently lies somewhere in between. The dynamic nature of the cold air push combined with the multiple model forecasts of a stacked jet streak moving through the region do lean more towards the HREF solution. This could facilitate momentum transfer downward from 650mb-700mb to the surface. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas where 45+ MPH gusts are most likely. Isolated gusts in excess of 45 MPH are possible elsewhere throughout the night. As the jet streak transits the region through the morning, winds gradually decelerate back to more nominal levels by midday Wednesday. Usually with such a strong kinematic gradient, one would think precipitation would be present; however, much of the antecedent air mass ahead of the front is dry and stable. There is a growing signal from the CAMs across far NE MO that could squeeze out some sprinkles/flurries ahead of the front overnight, but precipitation expectations remain minimal. Cold air streams in behind the front Wednesday with highs expected to be about 10 degrees colder than today. Portions of far NE MO may only barely make it above freezing. Cold air continues to stream in through the end of the week as a cold Canadian high pressure system works its way southward. High temperatures descend into the 30s Friday before reaching the upper 20s by Sunday. The pattern does look to slowly shift by early next week as flow is anticipated to return southerly opening warm air advection back up to the region. The precipitation outlook for the period remains rather minimal. Northeast MO could see some light precipitation tonight as well as passing snow flurries Thursday afternoon, but more likely Saturday as multiple midlevel waves pass to the north of the region. NBM probabilities of accumulating snow range from 10-20 percent to 20-40 percent respectively. Extended guidance does show the potential for the atmosphere to get a little more active next week; however, a general northward shift of the polar jet northward does put the region more in the warm sector which 1) leads to chances for above normal temperatures next week and 2) would lean prevailing precipitation type being rain sans post cold frontal activity where snow is possible. Guidance does not go out far enough to confidently forecast chances for a white Christmas, but a prognosis of increased activity does pose the potential for one. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 927 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Winds continue to be the main focus with this TAF issuance, especially overnight through Wednesday afternoon. Peak wind gusts are expected as winds shift to the northwest between 09Z/10 and 15Z/10. Winds are expected to diminish toward sunset Wednesday evening after or around 00Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with only a passing sprinkle possible early in the TAF period, but shouldn't be impactful. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-032-033. KS...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ102. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Cooley ####018008832#### FXUS63 KIND 100521 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1221 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain moves in tonight, with patchy rain changing to snow on Wednesday - Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph tonight into Wednesday - Accumulating snow possible Thursday night into Friday and again Saturday - Arctic outbreak expected this weekend with low temperatures down to near zero and potentially dangerous sub-zero wind chills && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Precip has been quick to develop this evening thanks to saturation and moderate to heavy virga occurring from the WAA mid cloud deck. Thus pops have been readjusted back south to I-70 for the remainder of the evening. Wind gusts have also been increasing partly due to an increasing pressure gradient but more importantly due to evaporational downdrafts into the remaining dry sub-cloud layer and increasing low level jet to near 50kts. Therefore expect some gusts to occasionally reach 40-45 mph overnight, just below wind advisory criteria. An SPS has been reissued to account for these strong wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 257 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Rest of This Afternoon... Mid and high clouds will continue to increase across central Indiana during the remainder of the afternoon. The decent pressure gradient along with mixing down of stronger winds aloft will keep breezy conditions around. Tonight... An upper trough will approach the area from the northwest, while a surface low moves into lower Michigan. A strong low level jet will move into the area as well. The system will bring broad forcing, including isentropic lift, to the area. Moisture will accompany the low level jet. The forcing and moisture will be enough to bring some precipitation to central Indiana tonight. Will go likely or higher PoPs all areas at some point tonight. Warm advection on the southwesterly winds will keep temperatures warm tonight, so precipitation will be all rain. Current timing of the rain is that much of the evening should be dry for most of central Indiana, with the bulk of the rain falling overnight. Strong winds will not be far off the surface, with 50-60kt about 2000ft off the surface at times. However, an inversion will keep the worst of the winds off the surface. Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are possible at the surface. Wednesday... The bulk of the broad lift will be east of the area by 12Z Wednesday, so will keep most areas below likely category PoPs. The main cold front will move through in the first half of the day. This front, cyclonic flow, and cold advection will keep some scattered precipitation around for much of the area during the day. Cold air will move in aloft early, then as the boundary layer cools thanks to the cold advection, rain will change over to snow. Some lake enhanced snow showers may get into the northern forecast area as well in the afternoon. Maybe a tenth of an inch of snow might fall under a heavier snow shower, but would expect most areas not to see any accumulation. Winds will continue to be gusty with the tight pressure gradient and cold advection promoting mixing down of stronger winds aloft. Wind gusts around 40 mph are likely, especially north. Temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s to start the day will end in the 30 to 35 degree range by the end of the day. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 257 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Northwesterly flow aloft is expected to remain in place over the CONUS this week into the weekend. A NW to SE oriented baroclinic zone stretches from eastern Montana to Michigan, which has served as the active storm track recently. A strong surface low is currently dropping southeastward out of the Dakotas, with strong warm air advection ahead of it. Temperatures have warmed into the low 40s across much of central and southern Indiana. This low, expected to deepen to about 985mb, will pass over or just north of Chicago tonight. As such, our forecast period begins with strong cold air advection in the system's post-frontal environment. Model soundings indicate modest low-level instability, especially Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Low-level instability, combined with a secondary shortwave aloft, should be sufficient for numerous flurries and snow showers during this timeframe. Accumulations, should they occur, will be light. Even the most aggressive guidance is generally under an inch with most showing a dusting to half of an inch. ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL Cold air advection continues through Thursday as surface high pressure passes closely to our south. Winds should largely diminish by this point as well, gradually becoming westerly and then southwesterly ahead of an approaching low. Like the first system, this one too is riding the baroclinic zone southeastward. However, by this point the baroclinic zone will have shifted southward extending over southern Indiana. Guidance has yet to come to a consensus but has trended towards a period of light snowfall Thursday night into Friday morning. This system looks to be a classic clipper with most of the precipitation on its northern flank. Since the low is riding the baroclinic zone, most of the precipitation would fall in the form of snow. Given the relatively weak strength of the system, a swath of 1-3 inches appears the most likely scenario. The exact low track will be critical for determining who finds themselves within this swath. Thursday night's clipper does not appear strong enough to significantly alter the orientation of the baroclinic zone, which likely remains in place as we head into the weekend. Guidance, with less agreement than the previous system, is hinting at yet another clipper on Saturday. Another swath of snow is possible, again dependent on the system's exact track. COLD TEMPERATURES Ensemble guidance is coming into agreement on deep troughing taking shape following Saturday's clipper. An associated arctic air mass plunges southward Saturday night into Sunday as the system departs. Dangerously cold temperatures are possible, with lows in the single digits and highs only climbing into the teens. Negative temperatures are possible as well, but this is contingent on how much of a snowpack we have in place. The deepest snowpack currently is across northwestern portions of our CWA. Recent snows have melted completely south of I-70. Without taking the two possible clippers into account, the best chance of below-zero lows is across our northwest. However, should the clippers dump a couple inches of snow then more of our CWA could see sub-zero lows. Wind chills as low as negative 15 degrees are possible, especially in scenarios where most of the CWA gets snow this week. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1221 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Impacts: - Gusty winds 25 to 30kt tonight through tomorrow afternoon - LLWS AOB 015 thanks to 40-50 kt Low level jet through tonight. - MVFR ceilings developing tonight and persisting into Wednesday. - Rain tonight, then mix of rain and snow midday Wednesday changing to light snow with MVFR vsbys during Wednesday afternoon. Discussion: Fast moving clipper system will move through the Great Lakes over the next 24 hrs. Strengthening low level winds, as high as 50 kts at 1500 ft AGL, will lead to LLWS this evening into the early morning hours, before the core of the strongest low level winds move off to the east by 12Z. However, gusty winds from 25-30 kts generated by both a moderately strong pressure gradient and mixing of winds from 1000 ft AGL to surface will exist through most of the night into the late afternoon hours. Although ceilings currently remain fairly high (090-120), expectation is with the onset of precipitation they will fall fairly quickly into the MVFR category between 07-12Z from NW-SE. Initially with the light precip, expectation is for vsbys to remain greater than 6SM. However with more steady forcing ahead of main cold front, and transition to a rain/snow mix and then to all snow will lead to development of MVFR vsbys by tomorrow afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Crosbie SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...Eckhoff AVIATION...Updike ####018008310#### FXUS65 KABQ 100521 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1021 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1016 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather will persist through at least the next seven days across central and northern New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1235 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Gusty winds have developed over the central highlands, east central plains, and southeast plains today in response to a surface trough in the lee of the southern Rockies, and strengthening flow aloft south of disturbances crossing the northern and central Rockies. Wind speeds will trend weaker during the evening hours. Tonight, a modestly gusty backdoor front will sag southwestward through the eastern plains. Winds will then veer out of the southwest across eastern areas on Wednesday, while becoming gusty again over northeast NM with a weaker lee trough focused more over CO. Behind the front, high temperatures will fall around 7 to 14 degrees over eastern parts of the forecast area from today's readings, and climb a few to five degrees west of the central mountain chain. These readings will still be 2 to 17 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1235 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 As northwest flow aloft persists between a broad longwave trough over the eastern US and a building ride of high pressure off the CA coast, high temperatures will rebound across northern and central New Mexico on Thursday. Readings will climb around 6 to 23 degrees above average Thursday afternoon with some near record highs in some eastern and western locations. Another backdoor cold front will arrive on Friday, cooling high temperatures across the east a few to 13 degrees from Thursday's readings, while temperatures in some western locations climb a few more degrees in response to the high pressure system on the west coast. Nonetheless, readings in the east will remain around 10-15 degrees above 30-year averages, while records continue to be challenged in a few locations west of the central mountain chain. This weekend, warm temperatures will persist as the ridge of high pressure weakens and moves inland over the western US. Temperatures will fall a few to 5 degrees across central and eastern areas on Sunday in response to a stronger backdoor cold front that will arrive late Saturday and Saturday night. A dry disturbance is forecast to undercut the ridge of high pressure over the western US on Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will still rebound over eastern areas on Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 A mix of light and terrain driven surface winds with stronger northwesterly winds over the highlands continues this hour. As such, LLWS remains a concern at KROW. A cold front advancing southward from CO will bring a northerly/northeasterly wind shift thru eastern NM early Wednesday morning. Guidance is showing potential for potent LLWS across a wide portion of the eastern plains impacting KTCC and KCVN with lower confidence for KROW where strong winds will exist just off the surface out of the northeast early Wednesday morning. This will subside by midday as surface winds steadily veer out of the south in the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR prevails areawide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Minimum humidities will remain above 15 percent over the next seven days, except for pockets of critically low humidity over southern and eastern parts of the fire weather forecast area on Saturday afternoon. Areas of poor ventilation will return Wednesday, except for ventilation improvement with the gusty winds over the northeast. Poor ventilation will become widespread Thursday through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 27 51 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 18 53 20 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 25 52 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 18 59 19 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 19 60 21 64 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 28 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 36 57 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 33 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 26 69 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 26 74 26 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 51 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 32 51 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 32 53 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 51 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 26 44 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 19 50 19 56 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 20 53 18 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 30 56 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 28 59 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 33 53 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 30 54 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 57 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 28 61 27 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 59 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 23 60 21 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 31 60 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 22 61 21 62 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 32 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 23 60 22 62 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 34 56 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 33 59 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 34 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 33 54 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 30 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 57 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 51 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 31 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 31 58 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 36 63 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 39 56 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 28 49 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 28 53 25 67 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 28 56 21 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 32 53 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 33 52 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 31 51 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 31 58 29 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 34 56 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 32 58 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 37 58 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 36 59 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 35 58 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 38 62 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 59 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 59 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...24 ####018008204#### FXUS62 KRAH 100522 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1220 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will migrate across the Southeast ahead of a strong, clipper low pressure system that will swing across the Great Lakes later tonight and Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front trailing the clipper low will move across NC Wednesday night. Another area of high pressure will follow and build across the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 PM Tuesday... * Unseasonably cold, with refreezing of melting snow cover that will lead to a risk of black ice near the VA border Within a broad trough encompassing ern NOAM, a low amplitude shortwave perturbation now over the srn Appalachians, and preceding plume of cirrostratus, will progress ewd and across cntl NC through early this evening, then offshore. Meanwhile, a more vigorous and highly amplified shortwave trough will dig from the nrn Plains this afternoon to the mid MS Valley by 12Z Wed. After a short period of relatively clear between the two this evening over cntl NC, additional mid and high-level moisture will be enhanced downstream of that trough, with a gradual thickening and lowering of associated ceilings to around 15 thousand ft, through Wed morning. At the surface, Arctic high pressure now centered at 1023 mb over the ern Carolinas will continue to weaken while settling across the South Atlantic states, to the vicinity of nrn FL by 12Z Wed. It will do so downstream of a now 989-990 mb clipper low that will migrate from ern ND to MI through the same time. The MSL pressure gradient and height fields between the two will tighten markedly over cntl NC overnight, with the development of a swly breeze that may gust at times into the 20s mph over the srn and nw Piedmont around sunrise, when an intense, 60-70 kt low-level jet will be in the process of progressing across the Appalachians. That low-level jet may also contribute the maintenance of an area of stratocumulus ceilings that has been slow to disperse today beneath a strong, subsidence inversion over the wrn Carolinas, as the associated shearing deformation acts upon a zone of pre-existing 925 mb Fgen and frontal lift inferred by the strong 925 mb temperature gradient evident there in 12Z-observed upr air data. The Arctic airmass overhead, which has supported temperatures this afternoon only in the mid 30s to lwr 40s, will have an opportunity to radiationally cool this evening, between the aforementioned areas of high clouds and prior to the strengthening of the swly breeze. Quick cooling into the 20s to lwr 30s will probably result, before temperatures steady or rise after midnight. Lastly, visible satellite data this afternoon depict a shrinking area of snow cover confined to the far nrn reaches of the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, such that refreezing and black ice concerns Wed morning will be too spatially-limited for any additional Winter Weather Advisory issuance. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 221 PM Tuesday... A potent mid-level short wave will dive southeast through the Ohio Valley early Wednesday before pushing across the Southeast US Wednesday evening. While mid-level height falls will accompany this feature, mid to upper flow should be relatively wly, and as such, most moisture associated with the feature should ring out on the western slopes of the southern Appalachians. At the sfc, pre-frontal swly flow will pick up early to mid Wednesday morning, allowing temperatures to rebound to near normal (highs in the lower to mid 50s. Forecast soundings from various models continue to depict the potential for strong momentum transfer if we can mix deep enough. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph may be possible late Wednesday morning through sunset. Otherwise, a dry cold front will pass through central NC Wednesday night. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer though as winds stay stirred behind the front and we only radiate down into the upper 20s/lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1215 PM Tuesday... * Temperature roller coaster, below normal Thursday and Friday, moderating to near/above normal Friday night through Sunday, then falling back to below normal Sunday night through Tuesday. * Highest chance (slight) for precipitation will be Saturday night into Sunday. Aloft, a s/w traversing the base of the longwave trough will move across the region on Thu, while the parent low tracks ewd across the Northeast US/srn Quebec. In the wake of the s/w, the flow will become gradually more zonal Thu night through Sat. A weak s/w disturbance may track across the mid-Atlantic late Fri/Fri night. The longwave trough will again amplify over the central CONUS Sat/Sat night as a low tracks esewd across Ontario and a nrn stream s/w tracks esewd from the nrn Rockies to the mid MS/OH Valley. As the low continues its ewd progression toward the Northeast US, the s/w will continue ewd across the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic on Sun, then offshore Sun night. The longwave trough will linger over the ern US on Mon, with another nrn stream s/w swinging through it and across the region Mon night/Tue. At the surface, high pressure will modify as it builds ewd across the region in the wake of the front Thu and Fri. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will develop off the central Rockies and move ewd across the Plains and into the mid MS Valley Thu and Fri. As the low moves east across the region, a warm front may lift across the area. A trailing, secondary low may track ewd or newd across the region along the front late Sat/Sat night, though the track and strength varies between the available guidance. Regardless, as the low moves out, the attendant cold front will quickly move across the area, with Arctic high pressure building in behind it. The center of the high will track east from the mid/upper MS Valley and across the OH Valley/Great Lakes Sun night-Tue. Precipitation: There is a non-zero chance of rain perhaps clipping central NC counties along the VA border, but for now will keep the forecast dry. The better chance for rain will be Sat night/Sun, however chances are slight given the model variability, with a chance the rain could split central NC entirely (GFS). Temperatures: Highs mainly in the 40s on Thu, with lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s. Some moderation could start Fri, with the potential for highs to reach low/mid 50s across the south. Sat and Sun will be the warmest days, with temps near to above normal. Temperatures will drop in the wake of the cold front, with a return to below normal for Sun night through Tue. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1220 AM Wednesday... Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period, with occasional broken to overcast mid/high clouds streaming across the region. There remains a low probability that shallow low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion could result in brief MVFR ceilings around the Triad around daybreak, though guidance support has continued to diminish. A 35-45 kt SW low-level jet will overspread the area tonight, likely resulting in low-level wind shear late tonight and mechanical turbulence after daybreak. This will transition to strong gusty winds at the surface as momentum mixes down with daytime heating. Expect sustained SW winds of 15 to 20 kts, gusting up to 25-35 kts from mid morning into the afternoon, decreasing after sunset. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...CBL ####018008138#### FXUS63 KMPX 100522 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong system to bring an intense and narrow band of heavy snow this afternoon and evening along and north of the I-94 corridor. The rain/snow line has shifted slightly southwest of the Twin Cities metro, with a strong snowfall gradient expected from southwest to northeast across the metro. - A Winter Weather Advisory issued across southwestern Minnesota tonight until Wednesday morning for strong winds up to 55mph, blowing snow, and reduced visibilities. - A 2-4 hour period of freezing rain/drizzle potential wrapping up along and just south of the I-94 corridor as precipitation initially moves in through the rest of this afternoon. - Strong winds are expected tonight southwest of the low's track, with gusts of 30-40 mph possible south of the I-94 corridor. Falling snow with strong winds could lead to reduced visibilities, especially across southwestern Minnesota. - Multiple chances of light snow will be possible Wednesday through Saturday. Only minor accumulations would occur with any additional snowfall we see after today. - Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind chills approaching cold weather advisory criteria Friday night and Saturday night.&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A mixed bag of wintry precipitation continues to make its way east into Minnesota this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the line of winter weather extending from Little Falls down through the TC Metro to near Red Wing. Latest mesoscale analysis showing that 850-700mb forcing is lagging a bit still near MN/Dakotas border, however it is still expected that this region of mid- level forcing will make its way east over the next several hours and produce heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr along and north of the I-94 corridor. Using the latest trends in forecast guidance, another nudge south was made to snowfall amounts leaving areas mainly along the I-94 corridor including the TC metro in the 2-4 inch range whereas areas north and east of the I-94 corridor could see up to 5-7 inches. Farther to the southwest of the main snowfall region is the warm sector of this system which is located over western and southern MN. Concerns for a short 2 to 4hr period continue for a region of freezing rain. Warm advection this afternoon will raise temperatures into the mid 30s especially south of the MN River Valley and along the Buffalo Ridge which aligns with freezing rain is already being reported in those areas. Given where confidence was strongest for warm advection reach, adjusted forecast mentions of freezing precip east towards a line that extends west from Grant County in western MN down through Filmore County in southeastern Minnesota. The main precip shield clears southern Minnesota this evening, which then provides a short lull of mainly drizzle or freezing drizzle and then transitions to all snow overnight. Overall ice accumulations of a light glaze can be expected. the next "segment" of this system that follows quickly in tow of our snow/freezing rain mentions is the increased wind speeds across the area. As of now, winds along and north of the I-94 corridor will be breezy with 30-35mph wind gusts however in areas south and west of the MN River Valley, are expected to reach 50 to 55 mph overnight. These winds, combined with falling snow will lead to rapid reductions in visibility, thus went with a strongly worded Winter Weather Advisory for southwestern Minnesota starting tonight until Wednesday morning. Regardless, gusty winds, blowing snow, and recently falling freezing precipitation will make for difficult travel conditions this evening through tonight. So try to avoid being out on the roads if possible or allow for extra travel time. Most snowfall is expected to end Wednesday around sunrise, perhaps a band or two of deformation snow may develop on the back side the departing low mid-Wednesday morning however additional accumulation from that episode of snow would amount to less than a half-inch. Gusty winds will also weaken as our previous low distances itself away from the northern plains. Forecast highs Wednesday into the lower 20s Wednesday and then the teens on Thursday. Another system does encroach on the northern plains Thursday into Friday however this one looking much less impressive than today's system. Luckily, the p-type for this event favors all snow with accumulations up to an inch or two across southern Minnesota. As we enter the weekend, the forecast turns cold. Forecast highs Saturday and Sunday will range a degree or two above or below zero with wind chills ranging well below zero. Cold weather advisory headlines may potentially be needed as wind chills reach -25 to -30 below zero Saturday Night. As we enter next week, the cold blast looks to be short lived as h850 5-Day Temp Anomalies jump right back up to 10-15 degrees above normal hinting that a potential winter warm-up could be on the horizon by that time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Main swath of precip has just about diminished and shifted east, but now the backside secondary swath of precip is developing over central MN and overall dropping southward across MN/WI at initialization. The dry slot is quite evident in radar imagery and also in sfc obs, which have a bunch of -FZDZ reports. But as the atmosphere replenishes sufficient moisture, the swath of mainly -SN will drop through from initialization through about 10z-12z, with visibilities down as low as 1-2sm and ceilings into IFR. Ceilings will generally run MVFR for much of tomorrow, with VFR conditions quite viable during Wednesday evening. The biggest issue may well be winds as they are currently shifting to NW with the passage of the main low. Speeds will also appreciably increase to near 20G35kts, with higher speeds already being reported in far western MN. Speeds will diminish late Wednesday into Wednesday night. KMSP...Light FZDZ at the start will quickly transition to -SN as the swath of precip arrives from the north. Rates will be rather light with this next batch of snow, nothing expected over 0.5 in/hr, if that much, as only around an inch total of additional accumulation is expected. Snow will wane prior to sunrise, but the increase in winds may result in some blowing snow visibility issues. Strong NW winds will persist throughout this TAF set, and there is a small chance of some flurries or snow showers midday Wednesday, but these will be of little consequence if they occur at all. Improving conditions expected during Wednesday afternoon, with VFR conditions likely Wednesday night. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton- Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-Todd- Washington. WI...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Pepin- Pierce. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC ####018007419#### FXUS63 KFGF 100524 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very difficult travel conditions today into tonight due to snow and ice covered roads, reduced visibility from heavy snow rates and blowing snow, as well as gusty winds. Lingering impacts from snow showers and blowing snow are expected tonight into early Wednesday. - High winds are expected over the next 1-3 hours in southeast North Dakota. Wind gusts over 50 mph are expected. - Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 80 percent chance for wind chills to drop to -30 or colder. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Heavy snowfall rates have come to an end across the region. With the highest winds in the location where the least blowable snow is, impacts should have greatly improved. Expect at least some visibility reductions and drifting snow with patchy blowing snow through the overnight period. UPDATE Issued at 943 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Snow continues to push southward this evening. For the most part, heavier snowfall rates have ended in the northern half of the region, so the Winter Storm Warning there has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. Further south, high winds are approaching southeast North Dakota. Wind gusts as high as 67 mph have been observed to the west. Based on where cold air advection is strongest, the expectation is for the strongest winds to be just south of our region, however 50-65+ mph gusts are expected along the ND/SD state border. Conditions should slowly begin to improve after midnight for the most part as the heaviest impacts continue to move away from the region. Hazardous travel conditions will at least linger into tomorrow morning as snow showers will be ongoing through the night into tomorrow. UPDATE Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A heavy snow band is working its way through Grand Forks to Crookston right now and is dropping visibilities to between 1/4SM to 3/4SM. An additional few inches are expected over the next several hours across the heaviest snowfall bands. Further south, a transition from freezing rain to snow is ongoing, particularly at FAR where freezing rain changed over to snow at the observation station. The heaviest snowfall rates should start to diminish around midnight, but horizontal convective rolls are still expected to develop but we don't know how widespread they will be. As a result, no headline changes on this update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...Synopsis... After the passing of the current stronger clipper, the large scale pattern continues to be dominated by northwest flow with an additional (weaker) clipper passing through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This brings medium chances for light snow and lower probabilities for minor (advisory) impacts as probabilities for 3"+ snowfall are less than 20%. Falling heights/deepening mid/upper lows in Canada towards Hudson Bay will bring a series of arctic fronts through the region during the second half of the week into the weekend along with the coldest air of the season so far. ...Winter Storm Impacts Ongoing... The current strong clipper continues to bring impacts resulting in difficult travel across our CWA. The mid level wave is centered over our CWA, with the surface low over SE ND/NE SD while places the stronger gradient and speed max to our west and south through this evening. This has also resulted in much lower winds than previously forecast across our north, with the best potential for higher gusts closer to the SD state line this evening. Max Tw aloft is below freezing where most precipitation is occuring, though far southeast ND is still warmer with a rain/snow mix and a narrow corridor where freezing rain may still be lingering (southwest of Cass County). The most organized area of snow and embedded heavy snow banding is extending from northeast ND into northwest and towards west central MN currently, with decreasing trends to the west of this. Heavier rates within this area are ranging from 0.5 to 1.5"/hr based on radar estimates. As the mid level wave continues southeast the stronger forcing will exit the region resulting in decreasing intensity of lingering snow. The general progression favors this more organized area of snow weakening through the rest of the afternoon and early evening, however CAA and speed shear aloft in the mixed layer will keep lingering snow showers over the region. Wind impacts and the threat for widespread blowing snow/whiteout is greatly diminished due to the current track for much of our area, however, visibility reductions are still anticipated just where snow showers track and rates still potentially approach 0.5/hr. The coverage of which may continue to decrease after midnight becoming less and less of a concern as winds continue to decrease through Wednesday morning. Weather related impacts thus may linger, though the impact/risk may eventually be more in line with advisory (minor) or sub advisory categories overnight into the morning hours Wednesday. We'll monitor and adjust products accordingly dependent on coverage. ...High winds/slick travel impacts... Where higher winds actually occur in the far southeast (towards the SD border) there is a risk for increased travel impacts especially where roads are already slick as higher profile/light weight vehicles may be prone to jostling on the slick roads. This is something to keep in mind if you are traveling this afternoon through this evening when winds begin to increase. ...Arctic air and cold/wind chills impacts... Late this week arctic air begins to arrive and the cold air mass over the weekend will support lows in the negative teens and 20s, and there is a strong signal for at least advisory (-30) wind chills. Depending on wind speeds warning criteria (-40) may be met with increasing chances particularly north of Highway 2. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility will prevail for the first 12 hours of the TAF period. This will be caused by periodic bursts of heavier snowfall rates and isolated blowing snow. For the most part, however, conditions should remain primarily MVFR. VFR ceilings may come in and out at times as well, but generally cloud decks should remain between 015-025. Winds will remain the northwesterly for the entire TAF period with sustained winds decreasing after 18z. Expect gradual improvements to visibility but ceilings remaining MVFR through the end of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ049-052-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Perroux