####018006829#### FXUS63 KDTX 111327 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 827 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures resume today and continue Friday. - Arctic air is further reinforced this weekend resulting in single digit wind chill Saturday and below zero Saturday night into Sunday morning. - A gradual warming trend is projected during the middle of next week, however it will take until Wednesday for above freezing daytime temperatures. && .UPDATE... The 12Z DTX sounding had an inversion height up to 5k feet with a temp around -18C. The heat flux off the lakes has boosted inversions a little more than previous model solutions suggested. This has warranting an update to include scattered showers/flurries in the morning/early afternoon forecast. The low level flow will back more westerly this afternoon. Losing the Lake Superior connection and broad large scale subsidence will lower inversion heights, limiting the coverage of snow showers/flurries later today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 655 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 AVIATION... Chilly westerly flow is passing over Lake Michigan this morning, drawing lake effect cloud into the airspace, with pockets of light flurries (VFR). Ceilings have generally maintained VFR bases, but some terminals could experience brief lowering to MVFR later this morning (addressed via TEMPO). Gusts peak in the 20-25 knot range late morning, followed by slightly higher confidence in low VFR by this afternoon after low-level wind adjustments. Ceilings scatter out this evening, ending any lingering flurries. Mid and high clouds fill in early tonight, and a weak model signal exists for another potential round of MVFR ceilings overnight. Winds turn nearly calm and variable late tonight into Friday morning. For DTW...Mainly VFR ceilings with some flurries. Brief MVFR drops possible. Max westerly gusts to 25 knots. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium to high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through this afternoon and tonight. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 DISCUSSION... The surge of cold air behind yesterday's low pressure system has pushed temperatures down into the lower 20s, and into the teens under pockets of clear sky, across SE Mi this morning as the next round of colder than normal air builds into the region. The cold air is reinforced by W-NW flow that continues across the Great Lakes in the gradient between Plains high pressure and New England low pressure today and tonight. There is also a weak lake aggregate trough embedded in this larger scale pressure pattern that serves as the focus for lake effect snow showers as it wavers from Upper Mi into northern Lower Mi. The resulting Lake Superior to Lake Michigan connection is making the most out of an otherwise marginally supportive larger scale moisture environment. Clusters of snow showers off the fringes of dominant bands are able to make it down into the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb as long as activity maintains similar strength on radar. Farther south, mid level subsidence and dry air reduce central and southern Lake Michigan influence to just clouds and flurries until a narrow ridge of surface high pressure builds overhead late tonight into Friday morning. The new run of 11/00Z hi-res and regional/global models are in good agreement on maintenance of a northern Plains to Ohio valley low pressure track through Friday. Models are unanimous in keeping the northern fringe of snow over northern IN/OH as the lead wave is very low amplitude. This is followed quickly by a mid level low closing off from central Canada into the northern Great Lakes Friday night. It is capable of producing light snow across Lower Mi as it siphons some higher theta-e air from the central Plains frontal zone into a weak warm advection pattern ahead of the surface system. Model QPF averages less than 0.1 inch as 850-700 mb specific humidity struggles to hold 1-2 g/kg along and ahead of the cold front. This sets up a higher POP/low accumulation scenario of less than 1 inch across SE Mi by Saturday morning, subject to some minor upward adjustment as a potential Lake Michigan lake effect boost comes into focus. More important is the surge of arctic air ushered in by the Saturday morning cold front that entrenches a frigid air mass through the weekend into early next week. Temperature projections hold readings in the teens with single digit wind chill Saturday which leads into single digit low temperatures and sub zero wind chill Saturday night. A near repeat performance Sunday modifies just a few degrees warmer by Monday. Temperatures then trend back toward mid December normals as the 500 mb long wave and upper jet pattern become more progressive. A building mid level ridge promotes the warming trend, however daytime guidance temperatures take until Wednesday to increase above freezing. MARINE... High pressure continues building into the region today from the west while a dome of cold air lingers over the region in the wake of Wednesday's low pressure system and cold front. So while the gradient generally weakens, the cold air aloft will try to get stronger winds going, but below Gale force. Small Craft Advisories are now in effect for Outer Saginaw Bay and the nearshore waters of Lake Huron to account for continued elevated wave heights as a result of the continued northwesterly flow. Surface ridge slides over the Great Lakes today and tonight allowing winds to decrease further while backing to the west. Winds will remain lower into Friday before the next clipper tracks through Ontario Friday night into Saturday, pulling an arctic front through the region Friday night. This cold airmass will again bring increased winds with sporadic gusts to gales possible over Lake Huron during the weekend as 850 MB temps plummet to -20 C, supporting snow squalls and freezing spray as well. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-442. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ441. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ UPDATE.......SC AVIATION.....KGK DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.