####018003523#### FXUS64 KTSA 121905 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Upper low moving east of the Four Corners Region this afternoon with subtropical jet lifting northeast through Texas into Oklahoma. Atmosphere has become marginally unstable across portions of area ahead of the more overcast conditions. Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue spreading into the region this evening into the overnight hours in zone of stronger WAA. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially along and north of I-44, where some flooding concerns could develop with any training storms. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 As low lifts into Kansas late tonight into Monday, additional showers/thunderstorms will develop ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma around mid day. Modest diurnal heating, coupled with steep mid level lapse rates and stronger deep layer shear, will support a few strong to marginally severe storms across SE OK/NW AR into the afternoon hours with a wind/hail threat. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain possible Monday night as main upper level trough axis swings through overnight. A few lingering showers during the day Tuesday are possible on backside of upper low, before precipitation shifts east of northwest Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon. Shower/thunderstorm chances ramp back up again Thursday into Friday as a series of upper disturbances traverse with a weak cold front sagging into area. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible during this time as PWATs climb into the 1.5-1.6 inch range ahead of boundary. A little more uncertainty further into the extended forecast next weekend with a larger spread in the models. In general, warming trend expect with high temperatures running several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Area of light to moderate showers across western and central OK will continue to make gradual progress east through the remainder of the afternoon. An eventual increase in precip coverage through the forecast area is expected closer to 00z and continue beyond that, with transition to MVFR conditions at most sites in the 03z-06z time frame. This period will also see an increase in instability, so the PROB30 for thunder at all sites is maintained through a good part of Monday morning. Indications are that IFR ceilings will become more prevalent by around 12z, with at least some potential for LIFR conditions in thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 61 77 59 79 / 90 60 20 10 FSM 63 79 61 79 / 70 70 30 30 MLC 62 79 58 80 / 70 50 20 10 BVO 58 76 56 79 / 90 70 30 10 FYV 59 77 57 75 / 70 80 50 50 BYV 59 75 58 72 / 70 80 50 60 MKO 61 76 58 75 / 80 70 30 20 MIO 61 74 58 74 / 90 90 50 40 F10 61 77 57 77 / 80 60 20 10 HHW 63 80 59 80 / 50 50 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...14 ####018004772#### FXUS61 KCTP 121905 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 305 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level troughing will exit Pennsylvania tonight, with fair weather expected for most of tonight and Monday. A cold front will push through on Tuesday bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Another wave of low pressure tracking south of the Commonwealth will continue showers conditions on Wednesday, followed by drier conditions for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Filling close low over northeast PA exiting to the ESE but still supporting sct to nmrs open cellular showers over central and eastern areas this afternoon. Heights are rising from west to east, and the hope is that the western half of central PA may enjoy a few hours of improving conditions by this evening. Meanwhile scattered to numerous diurnally-driven showers over are particularly numerous along the dissipating occlusion over the eastern part of the forecast area, and there could be a few CG strikes from Tioga County southward to the Lower Susq River Valley. Surface ridging building into the region tonight and associated clearing skies/light winds along with wet ground where it rained should promote valley fog development. Ensemble prob charts indicate the eastern part of the state is likely to see the most extensive fog, which could develop as early as late evening. Central and western areas *may* be able to glimpse the waning aurora, but given latest space weather forecasts that window appears to be closing quickly. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging building over PA should result in a warmer and drier Monday overall. However, a weak area of low pressure and its attendant warm front lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks could produce a few morning showers or afternoon tsra across the northern half of PA. Partly sunny skies and a developing southwest flow should push readings into the low to mid 70s. A wave of low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley Tuesday before crossing the area Tuesday night, accompanied by a renewed chance of rain and perhaps some thunder. Low pressure slides off of the Mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday with decreasing showers expected by Wed aftn and evening. We may see our best drying period in over a week arrive Wednesday night and potentially last into Friday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lingering unsettled weather is possible into Wednesday, as upper-level low pressure passes overhead. Medium range models diverge a bit late this week. The ECMWF continues to show unsettled weather persisting into Thursday, as the upper- level low pressure very slowly pulls to our east. The GFS/GEFS is a bit more optimistic, showing an upper- level ridge bringing a period of dry weather from Wednesday night through early Friday. Both medium range models are in agreement in bringing our next weather maker into the area later Friday into Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. The result would be another Saturday with rain, easterly winds, and below average temperatures - a beloved tradition over the last couple months in Central PA. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As an upper level low rotates overhead and gradually drifts southeast this evening, periods of rain will continue. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected as a result of a combination of lifting ceilings and clouds becoming more scattered. Scattered showers should not drop visibilities too much. Skies will clear out tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Light winds with clear skies and wet surface conditions will create ideal conditions for fog in the Susquehanna Valley on Monday morning. Fairly strong signal for IFR conditions at MDT, LNS, and IPT with an outside chance at UNV toward daybreak. After fog lifts/mixes out, VFR conditions prevail for everyone on Monday. A few light showers will impact northern airfields Monday (BFD, UNV, and IPT), but no restrictions are expected at this time. Outlook... Tue...Showers/tstms and reductions developing. Wed...Showery weather and reductions continue. Thu...Slow improvement, with a few lingering showers possible. Fri...Deteriorating conditions with showers increasing. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Banghoff/Evanego AVIATION...Banghoff ####018007267#### FXUS64 KEWX 121906 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor with large to very large hail, and strong damaging winds as the primary hazards... A warm front is lifting northward across the state and majority of the rain and elevated thunderstorm activity (positioned north of this boundary) has remained outside of our region across the Fort Worth, Houston, and San Angelo CWAs. Outside of this, we have only see some spotty showers with few occasional lighting strikes. For this afternoon, best chances for activity within our region will align to the east of I-35 in the coastal plains. Instability is starting to really build across the southern coastal plains where temperatures (e.g. Kenedy) have climbed into the upper 80s and low 90s thanks to breaks in the cloud cover. Some of the latest CAM guidance do show the possibility for surface based convection over the coastal plains later this afternoon. If the case, an isolated strong to severe storm may be possible. Clouds keep temperatures more at bay over the rest of the area except along the Rio Grande where temperatures should climb into the 90s as well. The forecast outside of the locations east of I-35 look to stay dry during the rest of Mother's Day with only a low end chance for a shower. A very warm and humid night will be expected tonight. Clouds with low stratus will thicken back up as well through the night. A weak shortwave pivoting around the base of the upper low to the north could possibly spark an isolated thunderstorm that some CAMs have latched onto through the overnight that could move southwest to northeast across the region. Confidence regarding this solution is low and will limit PoPs overnight to the 15 to 25 percent range. However, if a storm does form, environmental conditions do support some potential for this cell to become rather strong to perhaps severe. Greatest confidence for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms occurs Monday afternoon into Monday evening with forcing from an approaching/arriving cold front. The most favored locations focus from near and east of the I-35 corridor. Plenty of instability remains and will increase as we head into the afternoon with the faster rise in temperatures compared to today where the clouds lingered the most. Low and mid-level lapse rates also steepen to around or above 7.5 C/km. Deep layer shear will also be plenty to support sustained organized severe weather. The low-level shear profiles are a bit lackluster and keep the tornado threat more minimal compared to the hazards for large to very large hail and damaging winds. Storms would also remain capable of producing intense rainfall rates despite quick storm motions. While we have not received nearly the rainfall as our neighboring CWAs, some isolated flooding could be possible where these heaviest rainfall rates do occur. Storms should push quickly east-southeastward and out of the region completely by around 10 pm. The rest of Monday night should finish off dry with some cooler air filtering across the region with the northeast to east-northeasterly winds behind this front. Some Hill Country towns could dip below 60 degrees during early Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Fair weather is expected Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday as weak upper level ridging builds in behind the departing upper low. Attention then turns towards a west coast trough that will push east into the Plains mid to late week. Some shortwave energy out ahead of the main trough may bring chances for showers and storms to south-central Texas as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, with chances continuing through the day Thursday. Both severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall appear possible with this system, with plenty of CAPE/shear and above normal PWATs. However, confidence is low regarding storm placement and coverage, with indications that the greatest coverage of convection could be to the north and east of our area. There is some uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper level pattern behind this system as some models show a second trough/shortwave sitting over northern Mexico which would then eject east across Texas over the weekend, while others show ridging beginning to build in heading into next week. The current forecast is for a warming trend with slight chances for precipitation, though PoPs will likely need to be adjusted depending on which upper level pattern the models begin to favor for this period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF) and KDRT improves to VFR levels later this afternoon into this evening. KAUS remains MVFR to IFR through this afternoon into this evening. Shower activity may still remain closer to the vicinity of KAUS, mainly east and northeast, through this afternoon while the other sites should stay rain free into this evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings return overnight through Monday morning across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). Very low confidence on timing and placement but an isolated thunderstorm may try to develop overnight into early Monday from southwest to northeast across the CWA. Did not have enough of confidence for impacts to put into the TAF package at this time. A greater concern for scattered thunderstorms, which could become strong to severe, develops into and through Monday afternoon across and east of the I-35 corridor. Have inserted PROB30s at the 30 hr sites (KAUS and KSAT) for this potential. Timing, location, and flight impacts of these storms will be fine tuned through the next several TAF cycles. Otherwise, sites should improve towards VFR levels at all sites into MOnday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 80 72 86 64 / 50 10 40 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 80 72 87 63 / 40 20 40 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 73 88 64 / 30 20 40 10 Burnet Muni Airport 77 69 84 62 / 80 10 30 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 73 100 69 / 10 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 69 85 63 / 80 20 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 89 73 93 63 / 20 20 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 81 72 87 62 / 30 10 40 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 81 74 85 65 / 50 30 60 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 74 90 65 / 20 20 30 10 Stinson Muni Airport 88 74 90 66 / 20 20 40 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...Gale Aviation...Brady ####018010073#### FXUS62 KMHX 121907 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 307 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak backdoor cold front quickly tracks across the region this evening while high pressure builds overhead tonight and remains in control thru Monday. Then, a low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 PM Sun...Not much change in the forecast as upper level trough remains over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with ridging beginning to push in from the west out ahead of yet another trough in the Plains. Widespread temps in the 70s inland and upper 60s to mid 70s across the OBX are currently noted. Highs for today will likely be reached in the next hour or so while blustery west to northwesterly winds continue across ENC. A few wind gusts up around 20-25 mph remain possible this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows fairly widespread diurnal cumulus which should quickly dissipate around sunset allowing for clear skies tonight. Backdoor cold front noted by a wind shift to the north-northeast as well as on satellite is currently making its way south across the NOBX this afternoon as well. This backdoor cold front should eventually stall and dissipate as it makes its way across the area this evening resulting in winds becoming light an variable after sunset. Tonight, deep upper ridging will expand over much of the southeastern CONUS eventually becoming centered over the Southeast by Monday morning as Mid-Atlantic trough pushes further offshore and troughing in the Southern Plains slowly pushes E'wards. High pressure then settles overhead. With light and variable winds and mo clear skies forecast the table is set for a great radiational cooling night tonight with the latest forecasted low temps nudged down another degree or two below the lowest guidance. As such have widespread lows in the upper 40s to low 50s inland with low to mid 50s found along the coast and OBX. Patchy radiation fog is possible to start the morning work commute, but widespread visibility issues are not anticipated. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 305 PM Sun... High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic becomes centered off the coast by Mon afternoon keeping things dry across ENC through the day. However, upper level trough and associated surface low in the Plains will continue to slide E'wards as well approaching the Carolinas from the west. While we don't expect any precip, increasing high clouds especially Mon afternoon will be noted as moisture gradually begins to stream into the region out ahead of the approaching low. Temps will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Dew points will be much below normal however in the low to mid 50s making for very comfortable conditions. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week. Monday night...Mostly cloudy skies and increasing precip chances are forecast late Mon night out ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will be tracking across the Southeast. Temps get down into the 60s across the area Mon night given the widespread cloudcover and weak southerly flow. Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal. However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear. Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period with coastal sections potentially approaching 2". Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Thursday through Sunday...Disparity continues among the models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves offshore late Wednesday with some solutions opening the upper low into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft bringing a dry forecast. However, the 00z operational ECMWF and to some extent the CMC now maintain a closed low with a slower track across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the area. Have now introduced slight chance PoPs and the CMC is trending toward the ECMWF. Models are in better agreement with another southern stream system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/... As of 1230 PM Sun...Pred VFR conditions continue to persist across ENC this afternoon and are forecast to continue on into Monday. Diurnal Cu has begun to develop across the region this afternoon with cloud bases generally around 6-9 kft resulting in little impact to operations. Continued SCT deck expected for the rest of the afternoon before clouds dissipate tonight. Otherwise the main concern for the rest of today will be breezy WNW'rly winds with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the coastal plain. Across the northern Outer Banks, a secondary front will cross the area late this afternoon as a weak area of low pressure passes offshore bringing further veering of winds to the north and eventually northeasterly into the overnight hours. After sunset, winds will rapidly decouple under clear skies as high pressure moves overhead. Some patchy radiational fog is possible at the most vulnerable sites though latest HREF probs for fog and 12z guidance hints that the threat is low (20% or less) and even if MIFG does develop minimal impacts to operations are expected. By Mon winds become southerly but remain light while cloud cover slowly increases from SW to NE late Mon morning. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Monday as high pressure builds across the region. A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... As of 305 PM Sun...Rather benign boating conditions will persist through the period as weak low pressure to the north quickly exits the region while its associated cold front continues to dive south and eventually dissipate over the area. High pressure ridging quickly builds over the region tonight before ridging pushes offshore on Monday. Latest observations show frontal boundary finally pushing through our northern waters this afternoon with widespread 10-15 kt N-NE'rly winds with gusts up to 20-25 kts behind this frontal passage while south of the front, winds remain SW'rly at 5-10 kts. This front will continue S'wards shifting winds to a NE to E direction and while winds will briefly gust behind the front, they will quickly ease this evening down to 5-10 kts and remain light into Mon morning. Light winds gradually veer through the day on Mon to an E-SE direction and increase slightly to 5-15 kts as high pressure ridging pushes offshore and another low pressure system begins to approach from the west. Seas generally remain around 2-4 ft across our coastal waters with a few 5 footers found along the Gulf Stream waters. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 415 AM Sunday...A low pressure system will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure may linger near the coast into Thursday. Winds veer to southerly Monday night and increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday. We may see a brief period of Gale Force winds across portions of the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will build Tuesday and peak around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will gradually subside Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cold front will push across the waters with winds becoming NW to N around 10-15 kt and seas around 3 to 5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...SK/RCF AVIATION...SK/RCF MARINE...SK/RCF ####018005290#### FXHW60 PHFO 121908 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 908 AM HST Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A land and sea breeze pattern will favor clouds and showers over island interiors for the next few afternoons. A kona low will then bring a threat of heavy rain to the area from Wednesday night into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Light easterlies will veer to southeasterly during the next couple of days supporting a continued land and sea breeze pattern. This will spell interior clouds and showers along sea breeze boundaries followed by clearing and a transition to offshore showers each night. This veered southeasterly flow is forecast to develop as a consequence of a digging mid-latitude trough which is presently centered along the International Dateline. This will advect higher and more uncomfortable dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 into the region by Monday night where they will likely stay for most or all of the week. Deep layer flow over the islands then veers to southwesterly as aforementioned trough closes off and begets a kona low positioned near 30N by Tuesday night. Large scale ascent will increase modestly during this time as moisture transport into the area increases. The gradient at the surface will remain light during this time perhaps resulting showers that remain largely offshore courtesy of island land breezes. South to southwest flow reaches the surface during Wednesday, increasing confidence in a shower threat for all locales thereafter. Stability around 500mb and above is relatively high to start, but if the low remains established through the weekend, deep convection and isolated thunderstorms will become an increasing threat as stability erodes. At this stage, global model consensus remains quite strong that convergent SW flow will support a swath (or swaths) of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall over the islands perhaps as early as Wednesday night and continuing into the weekend. Key differences arise in the guidance by the weekend when the resident kona low is modeled to phase with additional energy digging southward out of the northern branch of the jet stream. This will likely have significant consequences for the location of the heavy rain band heading into the weekend. The key message is that an elevated heavy rain and potential flooding threat has emerged in the period from Wednesday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... A lingering upper level disturbance will gradually weaken through today but could still provide enough instability for a few heavy showers across the state and isolated thunderstorms over the Big Island. Winds will remain light enough to allow for sea breezes this afternoon where clouds and showers could build up over island interiors. Overall, showers should be slightly less widespread/intense than yesterday, but MVFR and even IFR conditions will still be possible in any of the heavier showers. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration is in effect over the east facing slopes of the Big Island and will likely remain in place through much of the day. AIRMET IFR could be needed if showers become heavy and persistent. AIRMET Sierra is also in effect for Maui, Oahu and Kauai this morning due to tempo mountain obscuration. This AIRMET may be needed on and off throughout today and tonight for portions of the smaller islands due to shower activity. AIRMET Tango for moderate to isolated severe mid to upper level turbulence remains in effect and will likely improve later this morning as the area of stronger turbulence moves east. AMD NOT SKED for PMDY continues due to equipment issues, with no timeline for restoration. && .MARINE... Moderate to fresh east-southeast trade winds will build across the island chain today and persist through Monday. Winds will weaken Monday night and become more southerly on Tuesday as troughing amplifies to the west of the state. Moderate southerly winds will develop in advance of a front Wednesday. The front will then move into the islands on Thursday, with moderate northwesterly winds developing behind the front over the western end of the state and moderate southerly winds prevailing ahead of the feature. Surf along south facing shores will slowly decline today through Monday. Another series of overlapping, long-period south swells will begin moving in early Tuesday, with these reinforcements giving another noticeable boost to south shore surf through the rest of the week. A small, short-period north swell will decline today. A reinforcing small, long-period northwest swell will build tonight, giving north shore surf a boost Monday and Tuesday. A series of small reinforcing northwest swells will keep some small surf moving into north facing shores Wednesday into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain well below normal levels through late this week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Farris MARINE...Vaughan