####018004052#### FXUS63 KPAH 152349 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 649 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An Extreme Heat Warning continues thru tomorrow with Heat Indices peaking in the triple digits up to near 115 degrees. - Storm chances, including strong storm chances, are best with frontal passages Sunday night and Thursday. Both frontal passages bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 When you look at an upper level chart you can see about a 600dm ridge at 500mb centered just to the southwest of the area. The thermometer at the surface apparently sees the same thing as our temperatures are approaching the mid 90s across the southern half of the area and upper 80s in the northeast. Dewpoints are mixing down, mercifully, just a tiny bit into the mid 70s. Heat index values are still over 105 or headed that way amid clear skies. With the deep mixing LCL heights are up over 8000 ft which will significantly limit any prospects of showers or storms this afternoon. Tomorrow looks just as hot with max apparent Ts in the 105-110 range. The cumulative heat of this extended streak will continue to make for a dangerous situation. Our newer "Heat Risk" tool still shows level 3 and 4 (out of 4) categorization across the entire CWA. A zonal jet max to the north finally builds far enough south Sunday to nudge a cold front through Sunday night into Monday. Deep mixing produces very high LCL heights again tomorrow and that hot (relatively drier) air near the surface may limit parcel buoyancy somewhat, but 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE looks to still be available when the front pushes through giving us decent shower and thunderstorm chances if the front can lift the parcels high enough to get going. If they do the potential for localized downbursts/winds will be there given the high 0-3km theta-e difference and low level inverted V/DCAPE. Wednesday and Thursday a shortwave trough works off the Rockies and into the central plains and upper midwest. This kicks up flow out of the southwest and the lift and moisture look likely to combine to produce shower and thunderstorm chances. Deterministic GFS is a little sharper with this wave but the ECMWF also has it as do most ensemble members. Will need to watch for some severe weather potential if that signal remains given the lift/deep shear available with a warm and humid airmass. Low level shear actually creeps up just a bit in the GFS deterministic run. CSU-ML and CIPS analogs are also flickering just a bit over that period as well. Once the shortwave passes a cold front seems to have a respectable chance to make it into the area by the weekend. The current deterministic forecast has highs in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s, which would feel positively Baltic compared to what we have seen for the last week! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 VFR conditions are likely to prevail across the coverage area through the TAF period. A few models are hinting at vsby reductions at climatologically favorable locations like KCGI near sunrise but not enough support to include a flight category change at this time. Light winds tonight shift to westerly around 6-8kts tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...ATL ####018003643#### FXUS65 KFGZ 152349 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 449 PM MST Sat Aug 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, along with warming temperatures are expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A trough remained centered off the California coast with high pressure centered over Arkansas/Louisiana Saturday afternoon. The southerly flow between these two pressure systems continued to pull monsoon moisture northward but with the slight westward shift of the high center over the past 24 hours the bulk of the deeper moisture is being directed up the Lower Colorado Valley into southern Nevada. The nudging of the high center toward Arizona has also brought some subsidence aloft with a capping/stabilizing layer in the mid-levels. For tonight...A few showers and thunderstorms could linger into the early evening hours but after that we are anticipating a complete shutdown as subsidence and further stabilization occurs. From Sunday into Tuesday...The high pressure center gradually builds from over the southern United States to over Arizona. Monsoon moisture will remain at the lower limits for activity for most of the area as well as a capping layer aloft adding further stabilization. As a result, most of northern Arizona will see only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms through the period. The exception, moisture values will remain just high enough over the high terrain of far eastern Arizona for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily the White Mountains region. Otherwise, look for warmer temperatures and light winds under the influence of the building high. Looking further out...It appears active monsoon weather will be on the increase as the high pressure center finds it's way to the Four Corners region, opening the door to increasing monsoon moisture. && .AVIATION...Sunday 16/00Z through Monday 17/00Z...Mostly VFR conditions, with MVFR possible near isolated showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms should be ending around 03Z. Tomorrow's shower/storm coverage remained limited to the higher terrain, with the best chances around the White Mountains, with storms beginning around 18-22Z. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, with SW-W 5-15 kts daytime Sunday. Gusty and erratic winds near storms. OUTLOOK...Monday 17/00Z through Wednesday 19/00Z...VFR conditions, MVFR possible near heavier storms. Chance of isolated showers/storms over higher terrain between 18Z-03Z each afternoon. Winds SW-W 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Gradually turning warmer. Isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly over the higher terrain. Coverage of storms increases over the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim on Monday. Outside of storms, winds are generally light and variable at 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Continued warmer temperatures. Isolated showers in the White Mountains on Tuesday, with coverage increasing and spreading westward on Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of storms, winds are generally southwest through west 5-10 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Schank FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018003098#### FXUS62 KILM 152352 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 752 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday over most of the area. Otherwise, no significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The heat and humidity continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... 1) The heat and humidity continues into next week. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Broad upr-level ridge remains in place over the eastern CONUS into Sunday. A favorable position for high heat and humidity locally being on the east side of the ridge, although with a higher likelihood of more cloud cover than today, heat indices should be a bit lower, but enough to warrant another Heat Advisory over most of the area. Kept Pender and New Hanover out of the advisory where head indices are expected to peak more in the 100-104 degree range, and will re-evaluate in the next forecast update. Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings may be necessary for Monday with lower rain chances and less cloud cover allowing for high temps also in the 95-100 degree range. More marginal for Tuesday with higher rain chances (chance PoPs) compared to Monday as better shortwave energy aloft traverses the area. Heat products are less likely for the second half of next week as an upr-level trough drops into the area with rain chances in the chance to likely range each day. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR is expected to continue at least for the next several hours before potential fog or low stratus develops later in the night, which carries moderate to high confidence. With most of the area having seen rainfall or rain-cooled air from today's storms and the expectation for calm winds most of the night, have opted to be more aggressive on fog/low stratus potential than guidance suggests. However, one limiting factor will be the thickness and longevity of high cirrus from storms north of the area streaming in. Expect VFR to return by mid-morning with another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms expected mainly in the afternoon, initially focused on the sea breeze before spreading inland. Brief IFR to LIFR vis restrictions will be possible in heavy rain. Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected much of next week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening storms could result in brief vis restrictions at times. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected next week with no strong fropas anticipated. Winds average 10-15 kt outside of any convection, with seas steady at 2-3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ087-096-099- 109-110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW KEY MESSAGES...MAS DISCUSSION...MAS AVIATION...ABW MARINE...MAS ####018005679#### FXUS64 KMOB 152352 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 - Hot conditions continue through the weekend and into next week. Heat advisories remain in effect through late this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon for high heat indices up to 112. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed into early next week. - A Low risk of rip currents continues through the weekend, with a Moderate risk of rip currents returning for Florida Panhandle beaches on Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed at this time. /13 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Starting off with this afternoon, quiet and hot! Surface high pressure to our west has introduced a general light northerly low-level flow pattern over the local area. This has allowed the nightly land breeze boundary to drive well south into our outer marine waters. This light northerly flow may also delay the normal northward advancement of the coastal seabreeze circulation, which means we'll keep a close eye on areas out ahead of the boundary this afternoon as we could tap noticably hotter for interior coastal locations, especially compared to yesterday before mixing out. Meanwhile farther north, into interior Alabama, a deeper PBL mixing regime will provide lower forecast Td's compared to NBM guidance, and did add an adjustment there where heat index values will range 103-108 on average. Will need to continue to monitor the coast into interior coastal locations today through early next week, as it's not entirely impossible to reach at/near extreme heat. Heat Risk is noticably pinging on extreme for many areas and will need to reassess the longevity in regards to impacts coming up. Will continue to emphasize messaging and express heat precautions for those outdoors for extended periods. Otherwise, this same northerly flow will supply greater sfc confluence later today to add a boost/focus point for greater localized ascent to get convection going. May distinctly see several strong/isolated severe storms along the I-10 corridor mid/late afternoon into the evening hours, with localized downburst/microburst potential. North of the seabreeze, Convective T will be reached (actually as of 18Z, already is) across interior Al leading to free-forming, diurnally forced convection. NBM PoPs appear very plausible with a noticeable uptick today in the 30-60% coverage range, going to keep this going as it matches well with REFS/HRRR trends and continue to monitor for a few strong/isolated severe storms later today. Tomorrow into early next week, the ridge continues to slowly bleed west allowing for an areal increase in weakness with time. NBM PoPs did come in higher Mon and Tue, which makes sense with a couple of weak mid-level impulses (likely remnant energy lingering from prior days convection) riding east to west, providing a bit of an uptick in coverage especially where seabreeze interactions allow for enhanced low-level confluence to spark more locally strong to isolated severe storms each mid/late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will continue to be watched, as we'll easily remain in Heat Advisory range through early next week. Again, will monitor any potential need for extreme heat, especially near the coast. One quick note about the extended into next weekend, seeing long- range cluster analysis hint at greater/deeper troughing sliding south across the MS valley region into the SE US, with relatively confident GEFS/EPS/CMC ensemble alignment. This may provide an even more noticeable uptick in daily shower/storm coverage in the long range, something to monitor. KLG && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that will develop again Sunday afternoon. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly to westerly flow pattern persists across the marine waters through the rest of this weekend, and into next week, with light to moderate westerly flow becoming established around the middle of next week. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 77 97 78 96 / 0 20 0 30 Pensacola 79 95 81 96 / 10 20 0 30 Destin 81 93 82 94 / 10 30 10 20 Evergreen 76 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 20 Waynesboro 76 101 77 100 / 0 10 10 20 Camden 75 99 77 97 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 76 96 77 97 / 10 30 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$ ####018007406#### FXUS61 KOKX 152352 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 752 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday morning may produce locally heavy downpours with a risk of minor urban/poor drainage flooding and localized flash flooding. 2) Mainly dry and seasonably warm Monday afternoon through Wednesday before the next chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The high pressure system over the area will move east and shift offshore tonight into Sunday morning as a warm front approaches from the south and west Sunday afternoon. Broad parent low pressure is likely to pass to our north Sunday into Sunday night, but a secondary low pressure may develop over or just south of the area. Several weak shortwaves will also pass across the northeast at the same time. The system will quickly move offshore Monday morning into the afternoon. Warm air advection with the approach of the warm front will allow for the development of some showers moving in from the west Sunday afternoon. Given the antecedent dry air at the surface, these showers may dissipate in intensity as they approach the area. The warm front looks to remain largely south of the area into Sunday evening before a secondary low development pushes the warm front closer to the southern portions of the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. This will allow for more robust development of showers, perhaps with isolated thunderstorms, late Sunday evening, but mainly into Monday morning. Instability will be limited ahead of the warm front with some mid-level capping in place. Regardless of the presence of thunder, showers will be fairly convective in nature and with PWAT values increasing to 2-2.25" overnight, these showers may produce locally heavy rainfall, perhaps reaching rates of 1-2" per hour at times. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and given the recently wet conditions, FFG remains near 1" in an hour for portions of urban NE NJ. Flash flooding appears to be a more isolated threat at this time with minor urban and poor drainage flooding the main concern. This batch of showers with isolated thunderstorms should be moving at a quick enough speed east to prevent large scale training of the heaviest rain. Any severe thunderstorm threat also appears minimal at this time. The greatest concern for severe thunderstorms resides over the Middle Atlantic where instability is higher. However, will have to watch near and along the warm front/secondary low Sunday night if instability were to increase more than currently forecast. Lingering showers and an isolated storm are possible early Monday morning, mainly east of the NYC metro as the system shifts offshore. Conditions should trend dry through the morning with only an isolated shower/storm possible Monday afternoon and evening NW of the NYC metro. Overall total rainfall expected is 0.5"-1" with locally higher amounts in any thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the middle of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are coming into slightly better agreement with the next upper trough moving over the northeast on Thursday, which may send the next cold front across the area supporting the next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Timing of this system is still uncertain with some guidance having it move through early Thursday, while others move it through Thursday night. The latest NBM PoPs are 30-40 percent Thursday morning through Thursday night, accounting for the aforementioned uncertainty. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure moves offshore by early Sunday. A frontal system then approaches from the west for the rest of the TAF period. VFR through much of Sunday. Then chances for MVFR increase Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening along with the chance for showers. Winds will become variable direction overall tonight and light with wind speeds under 10 kts. The light and variable winds continue Sunday morning before becoming more southerly and increasing to near 10 kt. Gusts begin to develop in the afternoon and evening from 15 to 20 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... EWR and TEB wind directions quite variable this evening. Timing of gusts and MVFR could be off by a few hours compared to TAF. Timing of showers could be off by a few hours compared to TAF. A low probability of IFR towards end of TAF period. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday night: Showers become more widespread, potentially heavy at times late. MVFR to IFR conditions. Brief localized LIFR possible. A few thunderstorms are possible. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt at times possible. Monday: MVFR to IFR early with showers and possible thunderstorms. A few showers and thunderstorms possible afternoon into early evening with MVFR possible. Overall, chances for VFR increase afternoon into night. Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and MVFR at night. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening. Thursday: A chance of showers with MVFR possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure will lead to conditions well below SCA levels on the waters through tonight. S flow gradually increases on Sunday as the high moves offshore yielding potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts on the ocean, LI Bays and potentially the NY Harbor and LI Sound. A SCA is now in effect for the ocean waters, NY Harbor and the Great South Bay Sunday night into Monday. These winds may linger Monday morning on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. Seas will also build Sunday and especially Sunday night, reaching 5- 7 ft. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels Monday night through mid week as high pressure builds back over the waters. Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low into this eve at ocean beaches. The rip current risk increases on Sunday with increasing S winds. Waves likely around 2 ft, so risk was kept at moderate. Residual seas near 5 ft on Mon so preliminary fcst is high for rips, especially in the mrng with S flow ongoing. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...MW AVIATION...JM MARINE...MW ####018007975#### FXUS62 KJAX 152353 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 753 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Heat Advisory Area-Wide Sunday. Daily Heat Advisories & Extreme Heat Warnings Likely throughout the Next Week - Strong to Severe Storm Hazards on Sunday: Damaging Wind Gusts of 30-50 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, Heavy Downpours and Localized Flooding - Isolated to Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Next Week && .UPDATE... The heat advisory and extreme heat headlines have ended this evening. Weaker instability, sampled by the afternoon upper air, has checked convection through out the day with very isolated diurnal activity thus far. There remains potential for isolated to scattered development north of Waycross in SE GA through midnight as outflow from more robust convection to the north continues southward into the region. Generally expecting thunderstorms to be of the weaker variety this evening as they attempt to develop. Elsewhere, a relatively hot (low 90s) evening will gradually trend cooler with the setting sun then fall to the middle 70s overnight tonight. A ridge-splitting upper impulse will slowly move into the SE GA region tomorrow (Sunday), generating stronger instability. This will aid in more convective coverage Sunday afternoon and evening as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Dry air aloft may still act to cannibalize updrafts across portions of NE FL through the day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Sunday & Monday Afternoon/Evening - Heat Index Values Near or Above Heat Advisory Each Day A frontal boundary from out of the northwest will settle in over southeast Georgia by Monday resulting in more inhibited convection over southeast Georgia compared against Sunday and with higher chances for storms occurring ahead of the boundary over northeast Florida. Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the northwest with moist air maintaining over northeast Florida south of the frontal boundary and north of high pressure ridging crossing over the southern Florida peninsula. High temperatures for the end of the week will rise into the upper 90s and potentially reaching upwards to 100 over portions of southeast Georgia. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. Heat index values during this period will reach upwards of 106 up to over 113, resulting in heat advisory and extreme heat conditions into the beginning of next week. . && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Hazardous Heat Continues into Next Week, with Daily Heat Headlines Possible - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, some which could become strong Prevailing flow continue from out of the west and northwest through the end of the week with the stalled frontal boundary acting to inhibit convection over southeast Georgia through Wednesday, with flow expected to become more southwesterly for the end of the week as the frontal boundary disperses resulting in a more uniform pattern of diurnal convection before the weekend with a potential for strong to severe storms forming under the influence of upper level instability nearer to the end of the period. High temperatures will continue to be in the upper 90s through next week with heat index values likely to reach heat advisory levels through at least midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions will generally hold with winds trending light and variable at or below 5 knots. Localized mist or ground fog may develop at KVQQ or KGNV during the early hours Saturday. Stronger instability will offer higher potential for TSRA development, especially along the I-95 corridor during the early evening. Vicinity mentions have been added to most TAF sites but highest potential for TSRA (30-40%) will be at sites along and north of I-10. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the Florida peninsula today. Only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening, mainly for the waters north of St. Augustine. The axis of Atlantic high pressure will then shift southward on Sunday and Monday as a frontal boundary pushes into the southeastern states, with this feature stalling just north of the Georgia waters by midweek. Southwest to westerly winds will prevail from Sunday through midweek, with evening wind surges likely increasing speeds to Caution levels. Only isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected on Sunday and Monday, with coverage potentially increasing towards midweek as the frontal boundary approaches from the north. Rip Currents: Low to very borderline moderate risk of rip currents will continue this weekend into early next week, with mostly offshore flow and surf/breakers into the 1-2 ft range with a sea breeze pinned close to the beaches each day. Any increase in surf for the mid to late week time frame will depend on the development of any tropical waves in the Central Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Heat Headlines In Effect Today - Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Southeast Ga Monday Hot conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the weekend and into at least the start of next week, with heat headlines likely to continue each day for most or all of the region. This will come with a flow direction generally out of the southwest to west through the next several days, as well as slightly lower chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over interior GA. Good mixing, especially outside of any showers or storms, will result in mostly good dispersions, which could be high over portions of inland GA late weekend. Fog Potential: Significant fog developments are not expected, however late-night or early-morning fog developments are expected to be shallow and patchy, mainly occurring over areas that have received locally heavy rainfall. Gusty and erratic winds are often possible within and nearby any stronger showers or storms. && .CLIMATE... Near record high temperatures are possible at some of our designated climate sites during the next several days: Saturday August 15: KJAX: 99/1956 KGNV: 100/1918 KAMG: 99/1995 KCRG: 97/2011 Sunday, August 16: KJAX: 97/1957 KGNV: 97/1918 KAMG: 100/1995 KCRG: 95/2022 Monday, August 17: KJAX: 99/1954 KGNV: 97/1954 KAMG: 104/1995 KCRG: 97/2005 Tuesday, August 18: KJAX: 98/1954 KGNV: 98/1954 KAMG: 105/1995 KCRG: 96/2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 95 76 96 / 20 30 20 20 SSI 78 95 79 96 / 10 40 30 20 JAX 76 94 76 95 / 10 30 30 40 SGJ 77 95 77 95 / 10 10 20 60 GNV 75 94 75 94 / 10 10 10 70 OCF 75 95 76 95 / 10 10 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018002859#### FXUS62 KTBW 152354 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 754 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions will continue for the next several days with max temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values approaching advisory levels. - Rain coverage will be below normal on Sunday, then rain chances will increase again from north to the south through the first half of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 754 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 With deep moisture over much of the forecast area, scattered to numerous storms were able to develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours today over southwest Florida, and then more isolated coverage developing over the northern half of the forecast area later in the afternoon and evening. The early start to the rain and clouds over the southern portions of the area spared much of that region from the elevated heat index values that were previously advertised, although patchy heat index values of 108+ were reported farther to the north. Rainfall has now quickly dissipated across the area, with drier conditions expected to hold overnight and through the day on Sunday. The forecast looks on track through Sunday, with warm and mainly rain free conditions expected. No changes planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 754 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 The last few remaining showers and storms have largely dissipated, with mainly rain free conditions expected to hold overnight and through the day on Sunday. While thunderstorm chances are too low to mention in the TAFs, an isolated afternoon storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Winds will remain easterly today around 5 knots before slowly shifting north on Sunday and Westerly by Monday. Winds will remain out of the westerly direction through much of next work week. Storm chances through the period will remain low as we are seeing drier through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 94 80 93 / 10 10 0 10 FMY 77 96 78 96 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 77 96 76 97 / 10 20 10 10 SRQ 77 93 78 93 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 75 94 76 93 / 10 10 10 10 SPG 80 93 80 92 / 10 10 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming MARINE...Shiveley