####018005749#### FXUS61 KALY 121930 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 330 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will depart the region tonight with rain showers ending along with partial clearing. Warmer weather returns early this week with continued chances for some showers and possible thunderstorms each day through midweek. Drier and seasonable weather may return for late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low now positioned across eastern New England as the surface low over central Pennsylvania dissipates. Continued upper-level troughing overhead will result in some isolated to scattered showers through the rest of the afternoon hours. Activity will be most favored across far northern and eastern areas with some isolated activity near the Hudson Valley. Rising upper-level heights and surface high pressure strengthening to our east will bring an end to showers this evening with some partial clearing overnight, which may provide some viewing conditions for tonight's aurora. Visit the Space Weather Prediction Center website for more information. Some patchy fog may also develop along some of the river valleys where the more persistent clearing occurs. Lows will fall back into the upper 30s to mid-40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather will start the day on Monday with surface high pressure located just off the East Coast and flat upper-level ridging overhead. Some weak upper-level energy will track over the ridge late Monday morning through Monday night as a surface warm front approaches from the south and west. This will result in an increase in clouds and shower chances for Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Areas along and north of I-90 remain favored for this activity with decreasing chances farther south. Enough weak instability may be in place for a few rumbles of thunder. Monday will turn out to be a milder day with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. The warm front and best upper forcing will lift northward toward the St. Lawrence River later Monday night as upper-level heights begin to rise. This will also cause the shower activity to lift north of our region by later Monday night with a brief period of dry weather into Tuesday morning. A warm air advection regime will result in a milder night with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s. A progressive positively tilted upper-level trough is expected to track from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday through Wednesday. Upper-level forcing returns Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold front approaches from the west. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with our region placed in the warm sector of this system. Tuesday may turn out fairly warm prior to the arrival of rainfall with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s except upper 60s to lower 70s across the higher elevations. The cold front will slow its forward progress across the region on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward just ahead of the front from the central Appalachians to the mid- Atlantic coast. This will bring continued rain chances through Wednesday with highs reaching the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper-level trough and surface low pressure system should depart the region to the east by later Wednesday night and Thursday as upper- level ridging and surface high pressure return. This will result in a drying trend for the later part of the week. Guidance then begins to diverge on the weather pattern heading into next weekend but it appears a return to unsettled weather is possible. We ran with the NBM pops during this time which bring them back into the chance range. Highs most days during the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z Monday...Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions in place this afternoon as an upper level low tracks east across the region. Scattered showers will be around, with the best chances for a few rounds of -SHRA at KGFL/KPSF where TEMPO has been included. Will mention VCSH at KALB. Any -SHRA should stay north of KPOU. As the upper low moves into New England this evening, conditions are expected to improve to VFR. BKN-OVC cigs will also likely to scour out to FEW-SCT coverage through the evening hours. With not much drying overnight and fairly moist ground conditions, there is a threat of fog with MVFR/IFR possible. Will include mention of IFR at most favored sites KGFL/KPSF with MVFR for now at KALB/KPOU. Will continue to monitor trends. Winds will be variable around 6 kt or less through the rest of the day, becoming near calm tonight. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...JPV ####018006321#### FXUS63 KDTX 121931 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 331 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and scattered thunderstorms increasingly likely throughout Monday morning as a cold front drops through the region. This first round of precipitation will be favored along or north of M59. - Renewed rainfall, heavy at times, is possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning as the front stalls across central Lower Michigan. - Showers and thunderstorms continue Tuesday as the front exits the region. Cooler than normal temperatures follow Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... NVA in the wake of the departing upper-level trough has bolstered deep layer subsidence through the afternoon, promoting generally clear skies which have allowed temperatures to peak into the upper 60s to lower 70s, outside of the Thumb with the lake induced thermal influence. A narrow corridor of mid-level clouds will briefly filter in across SE MI through the later afternoon and evening hours along the edge of a weak and fleeting shortwave, with a warm front then pushing in shortly after the departure of the wave. The 12Z DTX RAOB displays a prominent dry layer from h850 which is maximized up around h500. Precipitation is not expected through the remainder of the day. The potential for rain and thunderstorm chances will be centered late tonight into tomorrow morning (04Z - 12Z) along a cold front, which is projected to push through central lower Michigan before stalling. The expansion of the llj along the frontal boundary will elongate hodographs which will support moderate, partly crosswise low to mid-level shear with otherwise weak deep layer shear. However as is typical with unfavorable nocturnal timing of cold fronts, SBCAPE values will be nil with MUCAPES aob 500 J/kg and the effective inflow layer will be above the surface thus only an elevated portion of the shear profile can be realized. The severe weather threat will be very low given the above, but with some elevated CAPE and mid-level lapse rates ranging between 6-7 C/km, thunderstorms will be possible within the line. SWODY1 clips the northwest portion of Midland and Bay Counties within a marginal risk. If storms overachieve, hail up to an inch would the primary threat given the projected elevated nature of activity. This frontal boundary will be the focal point for renewed rain and thunderstorm chances by tomorrow afternoon, with the vast majority of model guidance places this boundary just north of M59, falling somewhere along the Flint-Tri Cities-Thumb region. PW values are not remarkable in the sense that they fall within climatological norms, however, near parallel cloud depth/shear vectors relative to the boundary coupled with the enhanced theta-e environment with MLCAPE values rising between 500-1000 J/kg supports the potential for repeated rainfall, heavy at times with any convective activity. The Metro region down into the border is favored to stay dry for at least the first half of the day given it is entrenched in the warm sector away from the boundary, but rain and possible thunderstorm chances turn more likely late tomorrow night into Tuesday once both the low pressure fills in across the Tennessee Valley while the cold front then starts to move southeast in response to the building high pressure system over Ontario. Have bumped up daytime high temperatures to or slightly above 80 degrees across the Metro region given higher confidence for rainfall to hold off into later on in the day. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday morning, before high pressure fills in across the Great Lakes. Please see the hydrology section for additional information. A building shortwave ridge will help support dry conditions through Thursday, with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms entering Friday and Saturday, initially from a shortwave, with a possible low pressure system impacting the state by the start of the weekend. Confidence on the development and position of low pressure system is very low at this time with large variance noted between ensembles. && .MARINE... High pressure today maintains dry weather and light southerly flow. The next low pressure system however will gain influence overnight with rain moving in ahead of a stalling cold front. As the front stalls, expect continued rain showers especially for locations within and south of Lake Huron. Slow progression of the cold front lends to a gradual shift to northwest flow by Tuesday evening. High pressure then moves in Wednesday to afford drier weather for mid- week. There may be a need for localized Small Craft Advisories late Tuesday-Wednesday as wind gusts and waves ramp up. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 AVIATION... Shortwave ridging will maintain VFR conditions with low sky coverage through this evening. The combination of warm air advection over the western and central Great Lakes will support shower and thunderstorm activity along a cold front from northern Wisconsin down into portions of northern Lower Michigan tonight. Activity is expected to approach KMBS and KFNT after 07Z. The frontal zone will then stall out and allow for new convective initiation after the taf period 18Z Monday. Southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected south of the front Monday morning. For DTW/D21 Convection...Tail end of shower and/or isolated thunderstorms will pass north of DTW between 08-12 Monday morning. Additional shower and thunderstorms potential is expected to wait until after 00Z Tuesday 5/14. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AM MARINE.......MV AVIATION.....CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018004011#### FXUS63 KICT 121932 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 232 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers/isolated storms tonight. - Showers/isolated storm chances lingering through Monday night. - Chance for storms Tuesday night through Thursday night. - Trending warmer (above climo) for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Some diurnal heating where skies partially cleared to the west of greater Wichita at midday has promoted scattered showers and isolated storms approaching the western CWA border. Combo of modest bulk shear and weak/modest instability will keep storms rather tame with a remote possibility for small hail closer to the Oklahoma border late this afternoon. That said, the relatively better chances for the more organized coverage for showers and embedded storms look to reside over parts of central and south central Kansas during the evening thru about midnight ahead of the vorticity anomaly associated with the upper trof. Later in the night the better precipitable water axis (1.33-1.50") will shift primarily to along/east of the Kansas turnpike where a modest low level jet and elevated cape values 400-800 j/kg should support better coverage of showers/storms with some locally heavy rainfall. Clouds and scattered showers will linger across much of the area on Monday with a modest diurnal up-tick possible even with limited heating. This in combo with modest shear may support a few strong storms with a hail small risk in far southeast Kansas. Diurnal heating on the western periphery of the upper trof where low level moisture will linger may support isolated storms in parts of central Kansas too. Precip chances should diminish/end from west to east across the forecast area on Monday evening/night as the upper trof shifts east of the area. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday under shortwave ridging aloft with temperatures near seasonal climo with perhaps some diurnal cu along/east of the turnpike. Moisture looks to advect northward into the area ahead of the next upper trof for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Late day convection to our northwest across southern Nebraska/northwest Kansas will have a decent chance to move/propagate southeast into the developing elevated instability axis over central Kansas on Tuesday night. The airmass looks to become moderately to potentially very unstable along the surface cold front on Wednesday which will be situated somewhere across the forecast area (more likely along or just south of the turnpike corridor at late afternoon). Westerly flow aloft will provide moderate deep layer shear, so a conditional severe risk is in play. Confidence toward the end of the seven day forecast has trended a bit lower as a rather large potential spread in the medium range guidance has developed. This actually reveals itself as early as Thursday into Friday, where the operational ECMWF is much more agressive in digging an upper trof into the north central conus which would imply much cooler over the GFS with further ramification into next weekend. For now the NBM maintains a warming trend and will stay the course with time to adjust should an eventual consensus warrant the change. Darmofal && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A busy aviation period is expected over the next 24 hours. Widely scattered showers/storms are developing across portions of central and western KS. Have highlighted the most likely time windows for shower/storm activity at each site. CIGS are likely low to MVFR later this afternoon into the evening, continuing through midday Monday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...BMB ####018002600#### FXUS63 KOAX 121933 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 233 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are likely for portions of the area this afternoon through Monday, and again on Wednesday-Thursday. Nothing looks particularly severe at this time. - Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of next week, though temperatures approach 80 next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A cu field is going up across the area this afternoon which will lead to shower and thunderstorm development as an upper-level trough approaches from the west. The surface low will pass to the south, leading to greater chances for showers and storms across the southern half of our area. Showers and storms will continue overnight tonight into Monday morning finally moving off to the east by Monday afternoon. We'll see winds increase out of the northeast on the back side of this system during the evening with temperatures dropping down into the mid 40s Monday night. We'll get a short break on Tuesday as a transitory ridge moves across our area bringing clear skies and warming temperatures back up into the mid-to-upper 70s. Beyond Tuesday the active pattern looks to continue as the train of troughs continue moving through the Central US. Nothing looks particularly severe, but there will be additional chances for showers and storms Wednesday through Thursday and again Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures stay fairly seasonal, though they do approach 80 towards next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 We have VFR conditions this morning with winds out of the southwest. A system is bringing rain showers up from the southwest. Chances will stay higher at KOMA and KLNK than at KOFK. We will likely see a few thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, impacting the terminals, but timing is still up in the air. Thunderstorm potential will decrease after midnight, but low chances will continue overnight through the day on Monday with rain showers continuing on and off at KOMA and KLNK and cigs lowering to MVFR then IFR by daybreak on Monday morning. Right now models suggest cigs should improve back to MVFR by 15Z, but there is a chance we could hold on to IFR cigs longer. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy ####018005798#### FXUS64 KFWD 121933 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 233 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ Rain and thunderstorms developed as expected this morning with some overachievers across Central Texas where instability and deep layer shear was the strongest. 2 inch hail was reported across portions of Bell County earlier with smaller hail reports in other counties. Along with the hail we have had some heavy rainfall with 2 to 3 inch amounts between the Colorado River and the Brazos river across Central Texas. We expect periods of rain and thunderstorms to continue through the afternoon due to passing shortwave energy and a lifting warm front. Precipitation will taper off from southwest to northeast through the afternoon and into the evening once the center of the shortwave circulation moves into the Central Plains and the warm front moves northeast towards the Red River. Most of the CAMS agree that precipitation will temporarily end this evening/overnight for much of the CWA, but rain and storm chances will return on Monday with the arrival of a cold front. Some of these storms will become strong to severe with the best chances across our Central Texas counties where the air will be most unstable. The main threats will be from large hail and damaging winds. The front will exit the region Monday evening, bringing an end to the precipitation until the middle of the week, as discussed in the long term discussion below. Temperatures this afternoon will be rather cool due to the rain and extensive cloud cover with most spots not getting out of the 70s. Clouds and patchy fog are expected tonight behind the rain which will keep temperatures in the 60s. Morning clouds on Monday will decrease from west to east through the day as drier and subsident air filters in behind the cold front. Afternoon sun will offset very weak cold air advection, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s. Drier air and a clear sky Monday night will result in cooler temperatures with upper 50s across the west and northwest and lower to middle 60s elsewhere. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Sunday/ Ridging aloft will fill in behind the departing shortwave on Tuesday, resulting in plenty of daytime sun and afternoon highs in the 80s. Subsidence under the ridge will remain through Wednesday morning but the ridge axis will shift quickly eastward Wednesday afternoon ahead of another developing shortwave across the Desert Southwest. Thunderstorms will form along the dryline across West Texas Wednesday afternoon but these storms will not reach the CWA until Wednesday night when the shortwave deepens and moves into the Four Corners region. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely through Thursday with the passage of the trough axis followed by another cold front. It is difficult to say what the extent of severe weather will be Thursday but given the pattern, some severe storms could certainly be possible. Precipitation will end from west to east Thursday night once drier air moves in behind the front. The drier air will be very temporary and moisture will return Saturday in response to a weak shortwave following on the heels of the late week system. Although we are not seeing overly strong signals in the long range models for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, there is enough moisture and lift indicated to keep slight chances mentioned. Temperatures Tuesday through the weekend will be near or above seasonal normals overall with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. The only exception will be on Thursday when clouds and rain will keep highs in the 70s. 79 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Rain and thunderstorms will move across all TAF sites through the afternoon with the best window of time for storms between issuance time and about 23Z. Some showers and storms will linger in the vicinity until about 01Z. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility will accompany the storms. There will be a brief improvement to ceiling heights after the rain moves to the northeast but ceilings will fall again late this evening and overnight along with patchy fog. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning with the arrival of a cold front but all precipitation will shift southeast of D10 airspace by afternoon. The prevailing wind through tonight will remain southeast between 6 and 12 knots except for gusty and erratic winds in and near any thunderstorms. A west to northwest wind will follow the passage of the cold front Monday but wind speeds should not be strong enough to cause any crosswind issues. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 85 63 85 65 / 30 30 5 0 0 Waco 68 83 62 85 63 / 20 20 5 0 0 Paris 63 81 60 81 58 / 50 40 10 0 0 Denton 63 83 60 84 61 / 40 20 5 0 0 McKinney 65 82 61 83 61 / 50 30 5 0 0 Dallas 66 86 64 86 64 / 40 30 5 0 0 Terrell 65 82 61 83 61 / 50 30 5 0 0 Corsicana 67 84 64 85 64 / 50 30 5 0 0 Temple 68 85 62 86 64 / 20 30 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 65 85 59 86 62 / 20 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ119>122-130>135- 141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ ####018008122#### FXUS63 KGRR 121934 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 334 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small Window for Aurora This Evening Before Clouds Move In - Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Tonight through Monday Night - Rain Ends Tuesday - Additional Chances of Rain Late Week| && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 - Small Window for Aurora This Evening Before Clouds Move In For those looking to view the Northern Lights tonight we remain in an active period as a X class flare (the highest level, although there are varying degrees of X class flares) came off the sun at midday. kP index values and magnetometers from across the mid latitudes show limited activity as this time. With additional flares inbound though, aurora remains a possibility tonight. The issue is like Friday evening, clouds are pushing in from the northwest after dark. There may be a window from roughly 1000pm to midnight or so where clouds have not yet obscured the sky. That window only becomes relevant though if we increase aurora activity from current relatively low levels. Stay tuned...or look skyward. - Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Tonight through Monday Night The main focus of the next day or two is the chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight, Monday and Monday night. Two main upper shortwaves of note during this time frame, one is passing well to our north across Ontario. The other lifts into the Plains from the Central Rockies tonight. A cold front associated with the Ontario wave will push into the area from the north tonight. As the Ontario low pulls away to the east the boundary stalls over the area on Monday as the plains system approaches. It is not until Monday night into Tuesday before the boundary sags south of the area. Assessing thunderstorm chances each period beginning with tonight...showers and storms will rapidly increase this evening over Wisconsin and Northern Lake Michigan where a Slight Risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Storms will try to advect in across Central Lower Michigan this evening after 800pm and continue roughly through about 300am. The 3km NAM tries to push MUCAPE values into the area that are over 1000 j/kg this evening. That may be a bit high. HRRR MUCAPE is much lower, on the order of a few hundred joules. We are in a marginal risk from the SPC, but feel severe weather is a low risk in our forecast area tonight. Storms will be very much diurnally driven and with limited CAPE to work with in the first place it will be tough to produce strong storms. Cannot rule out some small hail if a stronger storm can survive into our area given steep mid level lapse rates. Updraft helicity swaths tell the tale tonight with best chances at severe in Wisconsin and weakening storms as they move our direction. The HREF has a good flare up of convective activity in our area Monday afternoon, especially near and south of Interstate 96. We are likely looking at around 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE tomorrow with potentially a bit more if we can develop breaks in the cloud cover located near the stalled front. Deep layer shear is only 20-30 knots where storms will be located so organization and severe threat remains on the low side. The front remains in place for Monday night slowly sagging south with time. Once we get beyond the evening hours, where some embedded thunderstorms remain, we transition into more of a synoptic scale rain. The Plains upper low and its surface reflection will be moving into the Ohio Valley Monday night. Regarding rainfall...the HREF probability matched mean is showing all areas seeing 0.25 to 0.75. Pockets of 1.00 to 1.50 inches will be possible in heavier swaths. We are not expecting any significant hydro concerns with this rainfall. - Rain Ends Tuesday Rain chances will end from north to south as the day progresses on Tuesday. This will be driven by a mid-level trough driving the frontal boundary responsible for our precipitation south of the state, with northerly flow behind it. This northerly flow keeps West Michigan in the 60s for highs Tuesday. Surface ridging and a return to southerly flow Wednesday causes highs to return to the 70s. The surface high pressure system paired with upper-level ridging and the exiting of low-level moisture means dry conditions are favored Wednesday and much of Thursday. There may even be decent sunshine given the lack of moisture. - Additional Chances of Rain Late Week Precipitation returns to the forecast late Thursday into Friday as a mid-level wave approaches the state. Confidence in precipitation is higher than 24 hours ago with the Euro/EPS trending towards the GFS/GEFS suggesting troughing arriving by Friday. Ensemble forecasts suggest that a surface low develops in association with this trough but the position and strength of this feature varies. Given the favorable synoptic setup for rain but still spread in where the best rainfall axis will be, feel the NBM broad 40-55 percent PoPs are reasonable. As the amplitude and tilt of the trough and associated location and strength of the surface low refine in the coming days, POPs may increase across the region, particularly where the synoptic setup provides the best setup for rainfall. Signals for additional precipitation exist into the weekend, but considerable spread remains in the mid-level pattern in whether troughing persists into the weekend or a period of ridging takes over. Given the weaker signal for precipitation under the less certain synoptic conditions, will leave the broad slight chance to low end chance (25-35 percent) chances of precipitation for Saturday in the outgoing forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Two aviation related weather concerns exist within this TAF window. First is the arrival of showers tonight as a weak frontal boundary slides into lower Michigan. Given expected coverage of showers have maintained the previous VCSH at GRR/LAN and prevailing SHRA at MKG. A stray shower could clip the I94 corridor but confidence is to low to include in any form for BTL/JXN/AZO. There be isolated thunder within these showers but confidence in direct impacts to any terminal is to low to include VCTS. Will defer adding thunder to the TAFs to future updates. The other concern is LLWS. A 40-50 knot wind maximum around 2kft brings the potential from late this evening to 12z Monday of non-convective LLWS for all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 South flow has increased ahead of an approaching cold front and we have therefore issued a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for areas near Big and Little Sable Points. High resolution models show 20+ knots of wind in the profile this evening. Webcams at Manistee indicate a developing wave field with waves splashing up onto the south pier. The WaveWatch3 is showing waves of 3-5 feet this evening before subsiding overnight. South of the points we should be ok with less wind in the profile. In addition thunderstorms moving in from Wisconsin tonight will affect the Points as well as winds/waves will be locally higher near any storms. Winds and waves should be below SCA criteria for Monday and most of Monday night. Winds and waves look to increase however on the backside of a low pressure system producing stronger northerly flow on Lake Michigan beginning late Monday night. SCA's look likely late Monday night into Tuesday at least for winds, if not waves as well. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ848-849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke/Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Duke