####018011558#### FXUS61 KBUF 111510 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1010 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Locally heavy lake effect snow southeast of the lakes will focus across the higher terrain southeast of Lake Erie, and from just east of Rochester into portions of Central NY off Lake Ontario today through tonight. Lake effect snow will weaken by Friday morning off Lake Erie, but will continue through Friday east of Lake Ontario with some additional accumulations. Another fresh batch of cold air will arrive over the weekend, likely supporting another round of accumulating lake effect snow east of the lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of this writing...have cancelled the Winter Storm Warning east of Lake Ontario, with additional accumulations from lingering upslope snow showers across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill/western Adirondack foothills expected to be on the order of an inch or less. Otherwise, our attention is now on the mesoscale with locally heavy lake effect snow southeast of the lakes. Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to around 15K feet today as the pool of coldest mid level air crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Sufficient synoptic scale moisture and a deep dendritic growth zone within the cloud bearing layer will support efficient cloud microphysics for large dendrite conglomerates within the lake effect bands, resulting in plenty of fluff factor in the snowfall. Off Lake Erie... Northwest flow will support fairly widespread lake enhanced upslope snow showers today through the first half of tonight. The heavier snow will be closely tied to an upstream connection to Lake Huron, which will meander back and forth several times across the western Southern Tier and far southern Erie County. Latest high-res guidance suggests this band will have enough residence time to push accumulations into low end warning range in some areas today through tonight. With this in mind, the advisory has been upgraded to a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and far Southern Erie counties. Expect additional accumulations of 7-10 inches, with most of that falling today into this evening. Overnight, deeper moisture pulls away and inversion heights fall, which will allow the lake snow to weaken considerably after midnight. Off Lake Ontario... Mean WNW flow around 290 degrees will focus the heaviest bands into eastern Wayne and northern Cayuga counties then into the Syracuse area today through tonight. The heaviest band of snow will continue to be tied to the upstream Georgian Bay connection. Expect accumulations of 7-10" in the heaviest bands, most likely from far eastern Wayne County to near Cato and then into the Syracuse area. A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. Farther west, somewhat lower accumulations are expected along the Route 104 corridor in western and central Wayne County. In Monroe County, the western end of the band will produce a few inches today into tonight mainly along and north of Route 104, and possibly 3-5" in the far northeast portion of the County. With this in mind, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Monroe County today into tonight. Outside of the main lake effect areas, expect just a few passing scattered snow showers today with spotty very minor accumulations. Northwest winds will gust in the 25 to 35 mph range, producing blowing and drifting snow in open areas with fresh snow on the ground. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A wedge of surface high pressure will slide southwest then south of the area Friday. Drier air and subsidence associated with this feature will force any lingering light lake effect snow showers off Lake Erie to weaken and dissipate through the morning hours. Different story off Lake Ontario where an earlier weakening band will actually re-strengthen along the southeastern portion of the lake as winds re-align out of the west setting up the reinvigorated band across northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties Friday morning. Winds will continue to slowly back through the day as the high slides to our south, pushing the band northward into central, then northern Oswego County by early Friday evening. Localized snowfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be possible in the most persistent snows across these areas. Winds will continue backing to southwest through Friday night as high pressure moves southeast of the area and another Clipper system nears the SOO. Combined with increasing shear, the band off Lake Ontario will slowly weaken through the overnight as it moves from northern Oswego County northward through Jefferson County to the Thousand Islands region in a very weakened state by early Saturday morning. An additional localized few inches of snowfall will be possible across northern Oswego, far southern Jefferson and far western Lewis counties first half of Friday night, with an inch or so across the remainder of Jefferson County as what's left of the band rapidly sweeps north through the county during the second half of the overnight. As winds align out of the southwest over Lake Erie, a few light lake effect snow showers may develop off the northeast end of the lake, with a coating possible for northern Erie and Niagara counties. Deeper moisture and increasing convergence ahead of an approaching cold front attendant to the Clipper system moving north of the area will produce a burst of lake enhanced snow northeast of Lake Erie Saturday morning, possibly producing a quick couple inches across Erie, Niagara, and northwestern Chautauqua counties. This will translate east later in the day with a couple inches possible across Jefferson County during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect lighter synoptic snows elsewhere as the front sweeps across the area, with accumulations generally an inch or so. Winds veer west Saturday night with some lighter upslope snows off Lake Erie directed toward the Boston Hills southwest across the Chautauqua Ridge where a few inches may fall. Meanwhile, a well- aligned westerly flow looks to set up down the long axis of Lake Ontario Saturday night into Sunday morning. Deeper moisture associated with a nearing mid level low will raise equilibrium heights to around 8-10K feet, with strong lift through a saturated DGZ. This will lead to the potential for a significant lake effect event focused east of the lake centered on the Tug Hill. Still some question regarding timing, placement, and residency time of the band over any one location. Mid level trough axis and associated surface cold front will then move through the region with winds quickly veering northwest behind the surface cold front Sunday afternoon. Deeper moisture will be quickly stripped away, with lingering weaker lake effect snow showers shifting southeast of the lakes. Some lighter widespread synoptic snow showers will also be possible Sunday with the passage of the mid level trough axis. A reinforcing shot of even colder air will follow the frontal passage for the second half of the weekend as well. Below normal temperatures Friday and Saturday will trend much below normal for Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong high pressure moving from the central Plains to the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night will try to dry things out across much of the area, save for a very cold northwesterly flow keeping some localized lake effect snow showers going southeast of the lakes, along with some light northwesterly upslope snow showers. Low level northwesterly flow will back to westerly to start the new work week as high pressure slides south of the region, while aloft a mid level trough moves across the region. This will bring the next chance for some widespread snow showers, with localized heavier lake effect snows possible east of the lakes Monday and Monday night. Lingering lake effect snow showers will dissipate Tuesday as a warm front crosses the region ushering in a shot of much warmer air (relatively speaking) for later Tuesday and Wednesday, with the chance for a few plain rain showers by mid week. Below normal temperatures to start the period will trend a bit above average by mid week. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread light snow east of Lake Ontario will continue to taper off through early this afternoon, with IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau southeast of KART gradually diminishing. Otherwise...through tonight, lake effect snow off Lake Erie will focus across the higher terrain southeast of the lake, with areas of IFR/LIFR conditions including KJHW. Off Lake Ontario, most of the lake snow will be found just east of KROC to just southwest of KFZY and extending into the KSYR area. Outside of the main lake effect areas, a few scattered snow showers are possible at times with brief/local IFR. Otherwise expect a mix of VFR/MVFR CIGS. Winds will remain elevated today, with northwest gusts in the 25-30 knot range for much of the area, and up to 35 knots along the lakeshores. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR in most areas, with local IFR/LIFR in lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario. Friday night through Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake effect snow northeast and east of the lakes. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR/LIFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes. Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake effect snow southeast of the lakes. && .MARINE... Moderately strong northwest flow will continue today in the wake of a departing clipper system. This will support some potential for very low end gales on the east half of Lake Ontario. Sustained winds may peak at around 30 knots, but there will likely be frequent enough gusts to still justify maintaining the Gale Warning. For western Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, high end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue into this evening. Winds will gradually diminish from west to east late tonight through Friday. The period of lighter winds will be short lived, with another period of high end Small Craft to marginal gales over the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ003. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ004-005. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-021. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ019-020- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LOZ042. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045- 063>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JJR NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JJR SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Hitchcock/JJR MARINE...Hitchcock