####018005080#### FXUS61 KCAR 260419 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1219 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region through Friday night then slowly exit to the south and east through the weekend. A warm front will lift through the region Sunday, then move back south through the region as a cold front Sunday night and Monday. High pressure then builds into the Maritimes through Tuesday while a storm system approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Update... An upper level disturbance with limited moisture will cross the region overnight. The disturbance will bring mostly mid/high level clouds across northern portions of the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure builds across the region overnight. Expect mostly clear skies north, clear Downeast, overnight. Low temperatures will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the lower to mid 20s Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight temperatures and clouds. Previous Discussion... By Friday, the center of the surface high pressure will be sitting right over the region, making for a sunny, light wind day. Model temps indicate that the high temps for the day will return to more seasonable 50s. The vorticity models show some shortwave energy moving across the north in the afternoon, but with the dry column, only high clouds are expected to develop. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep layered ridging builds in Friday night through Saturday night, with its northern axis pushing to the east on Sunday as northern stream trough passing over Quebec flattens the top of the ridge. It should be dry as a result with minimal cloud cover Friday night through Saturday night due to subsidence under the ridge. With light winds should have decent radiational cooling conditions at night, so went towards the 18th percentile of guidance for lows both nights. For highs on Saturday and Sunday, since the area is prior to greenup - guidance often is too cool, so went towards the 83rd percentile of guidance for highs. Also undercut dewpoints during the day Saturday, leaning towards the 18th percentile for dewpoints which is fairly close to where a blend of MOS would be. Lows Friday night should be around 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Saturday should be around 5 degrees above normal, generally from around 50 near the immediate coast to around 60/lower 60s inland. Lows Saturday night should be near to slightly above normal. As the northern stream trough passes to the north Sunday, it could trigger some isolated to scattered showers, with the best chance across the North. Low level warm advection could make Sunday a few warmer than Saturday away from the coast, despite having more cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Deep layered ridging re-establishes itself over the region Sunday night through Monday night, so other than possibly some lingering showers Sunday evening it should be dry. A northern stream system approaching from south central Canada should beat down the top of the ridge again on Tuesday and Tuesday night, this should allow for some warm advection rains to move in. The question on Wednesday is does the deep layered ridge re- establish itself, or does the northern stream system moving into Southeastern Canada dominate. The former would suggest a dry Wednesday, while the latter one at least the risk of some showers. For now, there is quite a bit of uncertainty which of the two scenarios will play out, so opted for isolated to scattered showers for now. Temperatures should be above normal Sunday night-Monday night, near normal Tuesday and possibly remain so on Wednesday. Quite a bit of uncertainty on temperatures on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected overnight through Friday. Light and variable winds overnight. Northwest/north winds around 10 knots Friday. SHORT TERM: Friday night-Saturday night...VFR. LLWS possible Saturday night. Sunday-Sunday night...MVFR or lower possible, then becoming VFR later Sunday night. S-SE winds G15-20KT possible Sunday. Monday-Monday night...VFR. N winds G15-20KT possible Monday. Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight through Friday. SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters Friday night through Tuesday should limit sustained winds to around 10 kt or less and seas to 2 ft or less. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/LaFlash Short Term...Maloit Long Term...Maloit Aviation...Norcross/Maloit Marine...Norcross/Maloit