####018007241#### FXUS63 KIND 041959 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 259 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy freezing fog overnight, especially northwestern portions of central Indiana. - Wind chills of few degrees either side of zero will be possible across northern areas early tonight into Friday morning. - Low chances for snow will be around Sunday and again Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 A cold front has passed through Indiana this morning, but is most noticeable across our northwest where temperatures dropped into the low teens. Further south, the advancing cold air mass has slowed and made little progress. In fact, surface winds are now veering as surface high pressure skirts eastward across northern Indiana. This will allow winds to go light and variable overnight before switching to southwesterly tomorrow. As mentioned above, winds become light and variable under the high along with clearing skies. This should promote ideal radiative cooling potential especially where a deeper snowpack exists. The deeper snowpack is generally across our northwest, which is coincidentally also deeper into the colder air mass which dropped south last night. As such, we're expecting our coldest reading overnight to be over our northwestern counties. Lows in the single digits will be common, along with the potential for some negative temperatures here and there. Further south, lows in the single digits are possible but teens should be more common. High resolution guidance is hinting at patchy fog potential overnight, especially further north and west where the best cooling potential exists. The air mass that moved south was dry, not overly so, but dry enough to make the idea of widespread fog seem unlikely. We'll introduce the mention of patchy fog for western and northern portions of our CWA. Should fog occur, it will coincide with the very cold temperatures expected overnight. Therefore, we'll mention it as freezing fog which carries the potential for light icing on cold surfaces. As high pressure lift northeastward on Friday, winds will turn southwesterly and increase ahead of a trough approaching from the northwest. Low stratus is possible Friday morning into the afternoon but is conditional on fog development. Regardless, enough sunshine looks to be present, along with warm air advection from the southwest, to allow temps to rebound into the upper 20s / low 30s. && .LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)... Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Ridging aloft will remain confined to the Pacific coast through much of the extended before gradually shifting east into the Plains by late next week. This will maintain an eastern upper level trough and broad northwest flow across the region keeping temperatures largely colder than normal with a few clipper like systems offering the opportunity for light snow as well. Friday Night through Sunday Clouds will thicken Friday night into Saturday as a weak frontal boundary drifts into the Ohio Valley before washing out. Moisture will be lacking with the front and expect dry conditions for central Indiana through Saturday night with seasonably cool temperatures. Highs will rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s over most of the forecast area Saturday afternoon as light southerly flow develops. Extended model guidance over the last few runs has trended back in the direction of the potential for a period with more widespread light precipitation associated with a clipper system set to track from the northern Rockies on Saturday into the region by Sunday afternoon. Moisture will be more plentiful along and ahead of this feature with growing confidence of a 6 to 8 hour period on Sunday with precipitation impacting the region. Low level thermals will be critical with a potential for rain to mix with snow across southern portions of central Indiana while the airmass remains cold enough for just snow further north. The track of the system will be the determining factor on precip type as a further shift south would support more snow over the area while a northerly track would favor an increased risk for mixed precipitation or even a period with primarily light rain. Ensembles continue to align but there is potential for a light snow accumulation focused especially across the northern half of the forecast area on Sunday. At this point...impacts would likely be minor and certainly lower than both of the recent storms last weekend and on Monday afternoon and night. Sunday Night through Thursday In the wake of the clipper on Sunday...a reinforcing shot of Arctic air will follow in tandem with strong high pressure to begin next week with highs reverting back into the 20s over a large portion of the forecast area on Monday. The high will be east of the region by Tuesday with return flow enabling temperatures to rise into the 30s on Tuesday with mid 30s to mid 40s Wednesday. Uncertainty increases in regards to precip chances but the overall pattern aloft supports one or two systems dropping southeast through the Great Lakes and bringing at least the potential for light precipitation including snow for the middle and latter part of next week. An amplification of the upper trough will bring another surge of colder Arctic air by next Thursday and Friday but that will be temporary as the aforementioned western ridge is expected to move into the eastern half of the country by next weekend with warmer temperatures and a brief break from the early winter conditions. Long range trends do support a return to colder and more unsettled conditions as we approach the weekend prior to Christmas. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1227 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Impacts: - Patchy fog possible overnight, mainly HUF and LAF - MVFR stratus possible Friday morning/afternoon Discussion: Skies have cleared today behind a cold front that passed through this morning. Northerly winds have diminished and gradually become northeasterly. This trend will continue, becoming easterly and then southeasterly. A period of light and variable winds are possible as well. Winds pick up again Friday morning becoming south- southwesterly. Though a drier air mass has moved southward, enough moisture remains for some patchy fog potential tonight. The best chances are with westward extent, so HUF to LAF. We'll include a TEMPO group in the TAFs for each of these sites. Should fog develop, it may lift into a stratus deck and drift northeastward. We'll mention SCT015 to account for this possibility. VFR ceilings are possible during the day Friday as a system passes by to our north. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Eckhoff LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Eckhoff ####018003668#### FXUS63 KDDC 042000 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future, for the next 10-15 days. - Afternoon temperatures moderate back to near normal early December normals Friday and Saturday. - The next dry cold front will arrive Saturday night with elevated north winds, followed by much colder air Sunday. - Strong warming trend expected Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Midday satellite imagery depicted the erosion of the stratus across SW KS, a process that will continue through sunset, albeit a slow process with the weakest sunlight of the year. A light southwest wind will prevail this afternoon, but despite the addition of sunshine and a downslope component, afternoon temperatures will remain well below normal in the recirculated continental polar air. With a clear sky and light winds, temperatures will drop rapidly into the 20s at sunset. Temperatures will then hold near normal, in the 20s, through sunrise Friday, held up by light SWly downslope. Temperatures will moderate back to near early December normals, near 50, Friday afternoon, as 850 mb temperatures climb back above 0C. This, despite light winds trending northerly in the afternoon with the passage of another weak dry cold front. Models forecast further warming Saturday, with most locations warming into the lower to mid 50s. With light southwest downslope, Saturday will be the pick day of the weekend. Behind an Alberta clipper, the next dry cold front will race through SW KS Saturday night, with elevated/strong north winds, at least stronger than NBM guidance. North 850 mb winds are forecast near 40 mph, but nocturnal timing should keep much of this momentum above the decoupled boundary layer. Much colder air arrives Sunday, but only seasonably cold, nothing unusual for December, with afternoon temperatures in the 30s, to lower 40s west. Global models and ensemble averages remain consistent forecasting a strong warming trend Monday through Tuesday. With SWly downslope over very dry ground (especially by then), NBM is likely not warm enough Tuesday. Expectation is for temperatures well into the 60s Tuesday afternoon, with 70s possible west. The next dry cold front passage is scheduled for Wednesday morning, with more strong north winds and a cooler Wednesday. Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future. Global models such as ECMWF/EPS have zero QPF in, or even near, SW KS for the next 15 days, through December 18th. This is a high confidence warm/dry forecast, with the 8-14 day outlook from the CPC continuing with a high probability (> 70-80%) of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation into mid December. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1000 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations at 16z depicted widespread IFR stratus persisting across SW KS. The stratus will erode through this afternoon, but it will take a while with the weak sun angle, with VFR/SKC expected to return to all airports by around 21z Thu. SW winds of 10-15 kts will prevail this afternoon. Excellent flying weather is expected tonight and Friday with VFR, scattered mid/high clouds, and light winds. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Turner ####018005792#### FXUS63 KMQT 042000 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 300 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak clipper systems will provided light snow chances this weekend with lake effect snow following for the NW wind snowbelts. - Gale Warnings are in effect for much of Lake Superior for anticipated southwest gusts 35-40 kts tonight through Friday morning. - Colder than normal temperatures continue through the forecast. Expect wind chills below zero across much of the U.P. tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Early afternoon RAP analysis and GOES Satellite imagery reveals clearing skies overhead da Yoop as lake effect clouds/snow are starting to kick offshore with winds backing to the SW ahead of a low amplitude clipper. Present satellite loop shows this SW backing nearly complete in the west while lingering lake effect will likely persist in the east a bit longer. Overall, not expecting much in terms of additional snow accumulation more than an inch through this evening east of Munising. After a brief quiet period this afternoon and evening, the aforementioned low amplitude clipper works its way southeast across the northern Great Lakes tonight, swinging around the periphery of a nearly semi-permenant closed low hanging out in the Hudson Bay. Weak WAA/isentropic lift ahead of the clipper will be the forcing mechanism for light snow that is set to spread across the northern tier of the UP late tonight into tomorrow morning. Model QPF isn't too impressive, coming out between a trace to a tenth of an inch per 6 hours where lake effect/enhancement may provide a local boost in the Keweenaw and east. Combined with SLRs 15-20:1, this yields snow totals by tomorrow afternoon less than an inch across much of the central and western UP. Elsewhere, WSW flow may be able to sneak in 2-4" in the Copper Country, while 1-3" will be seen in the east, mainly from Luce county further into Chip/Mack. Snowfall may be thwarted by a dry boundary layer beginning to take shape as well as midlevel subsidence noted by forecast soundings. Additionally, SW winds will be on the increase tonight as the clipper's 40-50kt LLJ works its way overhead. SW gales 35-40 kts will be common on Lake Superior tonight before calming down around sunrise. For those that miss out on the light snowfall tonight, don't worry! The pattern through the rest of the weekend and into the coming week is highly supportive of persistent NW flow aloft and embedded clipper trains skirting through the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, the first of which quickly follows tomorrow night into Saturday morning. This one takes a slightly southern track through N Wisconsin, providing another round of light snow followed by a reinforced shot of cold air and light lake effect snow to the northwest wind snowbelts through the rest of the weekend. At this time, lake effect snow aims to be on the lighter side, potentially providing the NW wind snowbelts with an additional 1-3" (locally higher under stronger, more persistent bands) despite supportive delta-Ts pushing 25C given dry air within the boundary layer. Looking further into the midweek period, operational models and their ensemble counterparts continue the NW flow aloft clipper train across the area, supporting additional periods of accumulating system and lake effect snow. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 A period of VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the daylight hours this afternoon. However, MVFR cloud cover will return to the terminals later this evening and tonight, along with our next shot for a period of light snow with the next weather system. It still appears the best shot for some IFR VSBYs in snow will be at KCMX mid to late this evening. Otherwise, expect some scattered flurries to linger into early Friday morning. Winds will initially remain light from the southwest early this afternoon, however, speeds are expected to increase and become gusty into this evening as the surface gradient strengthens ahead of low pressure tracking eastward across Ontario. Peak wind gusts of 30-35 kt are likely this evening into tonight, before easing into Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Southwest winds ahead of the next Clipper Low will ramp up in the west this evening to gales of 35 kt, spreading across the rest of the lake up to 40 kt tonight. Freezing spray rates will be more moderate with the gale this evening through tomorrow. Waves quickly ramp up to 9-13 ft tonight for the open waters surrounding Isle Royale and Michipicoten Island. Tomorrow, wind gusts fall to near 20 kt and waves fall to near 4 ft. Saturday morning, post-frontal northwest winds will ramp up to 30 kt, with chances of a brief 35 kt gale around 40 percent. The weather pattern into next week looks to continue with periodic Clipper Lows that will bring either increased southwest winds ahead of it and/or gusty northwest winds in its wake. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday for LSZ162- 240>242-263. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ243>251-264>267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW/LOT MARINE...BW ####018003835#### FXUS63 KBIS 042002 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 202 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - 1 to 4 inches of snow is possible tonight through Saturday with multiple small systems. - Active weather pattern continues with near daily medium to high chances for snow over much of the area through next week. - Temperatures remain near average for Friday, then significantly cool this weekend. Temperatures gradually warm to start the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Currently the Northern Plains are under northwest flow between a large lower heights area in the Pacific Ocean, and another one north of Maine. At the surface, a warm front is moving east through the Dakotas and there is a cold front in southern Canada aimed at North Dakota. This evening the northwest flow through Montana will develop a small wave off the Northern Rockies. This will then move through the Dakotas tonight, along with a cold front out of Canada. Pacific moisture embedded in the wave will meet up with the dropping cold front over North Dakota. This front will create strong frontogenesis (fgen) between northwest ND and southeast ND. In turn this will create a banded snow event somewhere along that diagonal line. Hi-res models are not in agreement fully on where the axis of the highest snowfall will be. Some are off by a county or 2 from the others. There will be some synoptic driven factors as well like diverging Q vectors and steep lapse rates around 8 degrees Celsius per km. The strongest diverging Q vectors seems to be along the fgen or to the north. With all these factors in mind we boosted the PoP chances from the NBM, as well as used the QPF from WPC. We drew in a broad 40 percent area along the fgen for now, and when we are more confident in the snow band location it will be bumped up to likely (60+ percent). Timing looks like sunset in the northwest, expanding south and east through the night and ending around 11am CT Friday. A trace to 2 inches can be expected in this first round tonight. The north central and far southwest may not get snow at all. Friday will be another warmer day with highs in the 20s and 30s. Breezy winds could create blowing and drifting snow. Saturday morning the next round of snow moves in from another small wave creating a Northern Rockies low. This time the snow axis looks more like the southwest part of the state. This will be a familiar setup with a fgen band and steep lapse rates. Snow amounts could be 1 to 2 inches in southwest ND and drop to just a trace along the Missouri River. So across both systems 1 to 4 inches of snow are possible. This system will also bring in much colder air, making morning lows well below freezing and daytime highs in the single digits to teens through Sunday. Next week northwest flow will still continue, this time with near daily waves. This will create light snow chances most days next week. The NBM already has likely (60%) chances in the forecast. Temperatures will be mild across most of the state with highs in the 20s and 30s. With those small quick moving systems, breezy to windy winds are possible and maybe create very low visibility. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR this afternoon with westerly winds gusting around 25kts. This evening, snow will move into the northwest and spread through the central and east. Expect IFR to LIFR CIGs with the snow. The snow will end around sunrise Friday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith ####018013320#### FXUS61 KBOX 042003 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 303 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front crosses the region this afternoon into early tonight with a few snow showers and a localized snow squall or two, particularly for western and northern MA. Windy conditions and bitterly cold temperatures tonight. The winds quickly diminish by Friday, but it remains unseasonably cold. Scattered snow or rain showers into Saturday with a low pressure system passing well to our south. Another arctic cold front crosses the region Sunday followed by well below normal temperatures Sunday night into Tuesday. A low pressure system approaching from the west may bring some more rain/snow showers by Tuesday night and/or Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Arctic cold front moves through later this afternoon into early tonight. * Brief (< 60 min duration) heavy snow showers or possible snow squalls with Arctic front, best chance along the Route 2 corridor but possible as far south as the Mass Pike between 2 and 6 PM. Reduced visibility to 1 mile and light coatings of snow on grassy surfaces in snow squalls. * Surge of Arctic cold air moves in for all areas after frontal passage, with gusty NW winds (locally as high as 50 mph, especially northern and western MA) thru late evening which then decrease toward midnight. * Wind chills as low as 10 below zero in the Berkshires and northern Worcester County hills, with wind chills 0 to 10 above zero elsewhere in Southern New England. Details: Active, changeable weather pattern over the next roughly 6-12 hours as a strong Arctic cold front moves through Southern New England late this afternoon into early tonight. This frontal boundary is marked by a narrow line of snow showers with visbys reduced to as low as one-half mile trailing from central NH SWwd to near Albany NY. These snow showers/embedded squalls are associated with shallow instability driven by the MUCH colder air which awaits along and behind the front. Expectation is for some scattered snow showers or possible snow squalls mainly for northern and western MA between 2 and 6 PM although the linear structure currently shown in radar mosaic probably fractures/splits. BUFKIT cross sections show some RH in a falling dendrite snow growth region between 19-23z, which could favor reduced visbys possibly impacting the PM commute for these northern and western MA locations in these snow showers/squalls. Temps are currently in the mid 30s to low 40s, so it may be difficult for snow to stick on pavement but in some localized instances it may look like someone shook a snowglobe for a brief (60 min duration or less) period of time. Post frontal, we get a rapid surge in sea-level pressure rises and strong and deep mixing as surge of much colder air advects in. In the immediate 1-3 hrs after the frontal passage, NW wind gusts could punch into the 40-50 mph range due to the combo of strong pressure rises and the strong mixing/steeper lapse rates with model soundings showing winds at top of the mixed layer in the 45-55 kt range! Because of its short duration which precludes issuing a longer-fused wind headline, instead we opted to treat with a special weather statement in case we do get some reports of minor tree/powerline damage. While some localized adverse impacts are possible from the above, the main story for all of Southern New England for tonight is a surge of Arctic cold air. 925 mb temps will be falling steadily through the night to values as low as -15C. The combo of sharply falling temps and the northwest wind gusts could support will add a biting cold wind chill through midnight, with wind chills as low as 10 below zero in the Berkshires and northern Worcester County, zero to 5 below zero in northern and western MA, and the single digits to teens above zero elsewhere. Again this is quite a change in airmass so bundle up in layers if you have plans outdoors tonight! The NW winds ease up overnight which may end up easing the windchills too; but this will permit strong radiational cooling to take place leading to very cold ambient temps, especially in those areas in northern, central and western MA that are still under a fresh snowpack from Tuesday's snow event. Even though winds will have eased up, lows by daybreak should be in the single digits above zero in most areas (low teens Cape and Islands), with lows 0 to 5 below zero in northern/northwest MA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Cold Fri with highs in the 20s, around freezing Cape and Islands with winds turning light southerly. * Ocean effect cloud cover and possible flurries Outer Cape/Islands Fri thru early aftn. * Increasing clouds Fri night, early lows before warming toward daybreak Sat. Details: Friday: Despite full sun for most, Friday is nonetheless a cold and dry day, coming out of a frigid overnight. With a favorable wind trajectory for ocean-enhanced cloud cover developing in the pre-dawn hours, along with the unseasonably cold airmass in place driving some shallow instability off the milder ocean, we should see bands of ocean effect clouds and perhaps some scattered flurries at times underneath them across the Outer Cape and Nantucket. NWly winds then shut off by early afternoon to more of a light southerly direction, which will shut off the ocean-effect generation over the Outer Cape. But we will see cloud cover increase late Fri, mainly along the south coast. Highs Fri are only in the 20s, with readings around 30-33 for the Cape and Islands. Friday Night: Modifying warm/moist advection pattern takes place Fri night, with weak ridging remaining in place as low pressure passes well south and east of the mid-Atlantic waters. Weak southerly flow will allow for 925 mb temps to rise to around -3 to -6C, with an advancing shallow layer of lower clouds northward from the southern coastal waters to the Mass Pike. Some models show some very spotty light precip in this return flow; I'm skeptical this will amount to anything, but if it is light enough to stay in liquid we could see some slick spots develop along the south coast, Cape and Islands coming out of the frigid airmass. Early lows in the mid teens to lower 20s, before temps rise into the 20s to near freezing along the south coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages... * A few scattered rain/snow showers possible Saturday. * More arctic air arrives Sunday night into the early part of next week. * A few chances for precip first late Sunday/Sunday night then again around mid week. Overall a benign stretch of weather coming up, the main thing of note being another shot of cold air early next week. The synoptic pattern features quasi-zonal flow at the mid levels much of the period punctuated by periodic weak shortwaves moving through the flow until a deeper disturbance arrives middle of next week. To start the weekend high pressure exits east and SNE will be sandwiched between a trough of low pressure passing through northern New England and a surface low passing well to the south. The best forcing with both features is removed from our region and moisture is marginal so while we could see some light flurries/showers on the Cape islands early and passing rain/snow showers later in the day, do not expect these to be widespread or impactful. The exception could be if any lingering moisture on the roads freezes up Saturday night with the drop in temperatures making for slick roads. Another arctic front swings through Sunday night and while guidance disagrees on how much moisture will accompany it, the forecast leans toward a drier frontal passage. If we have showers around, neither Saturday or Sunday night are expected to be very wet; ensemble guidance indicates a 40-70% chance of a hundredth of an inch of QPF each day, with a near zero chance of a tenth of an inch. The fly in the ointment is the GFS which is quite a bit wetter and indicates snow Sunday night. Something to keep an eye on but for now it is the only source showing anything like this. Confidence decreases with regards to how the pattern evolves after Monday but a more active pattern looks likely with several potential shortwave disturbances Tue-Thu. Temperature-wise, we'll moderate quite a bit on Saturday and Sunday from Friday, with highs back into the upper 30s to low 40s. Then, the arctic front Sunday night brings the return of highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits and low teens Monday night. This will be a progressive (short lived) cold airmass, though. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Through 00z Friday: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on coverage of snow showers/squalls. VFR for most of this period. An Arctic cold front could bring brief convective snow showers or possible snow squalls from BAF to BOS north and west mainly 19-23z. Indicated with VCSH and will proactively AMD for tempo SHSN & IFR visbys. If any visbys were to be reduced it would mainly be for an hour or less, with any accumulation limited to coatings due to their brief nature. We then get a gusty NW windshift upon frontal passage, with speeds 15-20 kt and gusts 32-38 kt. Tonight: High confidence. VFR. Gusty NW winds 30-35 kt thru 04z, then a slow decrease in gusts to around 20-25 kt overnight. After 08z, could see some MVFR ceilings over the Outer Cape and Nantucket (mainly HYA/ACK) with possible flurries at times due to ocean effect cloud cover/narrow bands of ocean effect precip. Friday: High confidence. VFR with ocean effect VFR/MVFR ceilings HYA/ACK and the Outer Cape thru about 16-18z as winds remain NW around 5-10 kt. Windshift to S during the afternoon will shut off ocean effect cloudiness, but will begin to bring a layer of VFR/MVFR bases from the ocean waters to BID and perhaps immediate south coast, Cape and Islands by sundown. Friday Night: Moderate to high confidence. VFR initially, though a shallow layer of VFR/MVFR cloud decks advance northward from the southern waters. Low prob of SHSN or possible very spotty FZDZ south of PVD underneath this as layer aloft is dry. Light south winds. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low for SHSN chances. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Moderate for SHSN chances. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA, slight chance FZRA, slight chance SN. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. * Gale Warnings in effect for all waters tonight A strong cold front will push over the waters tonight, bringing with it a surge in NW wind gusts to around 35-40 kt along with much colder air. Wouldn't rule out occasional instances of light freezing spray but the risk tends to not be significant given that water temps are still in the mid 40s. NW gusts will begin to subside overnight tonight, with SCAs likely to be needed into Fri AM. Gusts and seas should subside to below SCA levels into later Fri AM. Dry weather should generally predominate, but there may be some ocean effect clouds with possible flurries or ocean effect snow showers that could briefly/locally reduce visibility overnight tonight into midday Fri. Winds turn southerly around 10-15 kt Fri night. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of snow, slight chance of rain. Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BW NEAR TERM...Loconto SHORT TERM...Loconto LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...Loconto/BW MARINE...Loconto/BW