####018004569#### FXUS63 KDDC 161655 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures for mid July and possibly even a few isolate showers (10% or less) will be possible through the weekend. - Highs near 100 with heat index values of 100 to near 105 in a few locations will be possible on Monday. The highest afternoon heat index values will be located near the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas. - A slight chance for thunderstorms (20%) will be possible towards the middle of next week across west central and north central Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 This morning, an upper level ridge remains over the Northern Plains, while an upper level low is situated over West Texas. Over the next 48 hours, moisture and subtle waves rotating around this Texas upper low will move northward across Oklahoma towards the Central Plains. This combined with afternoon heating will result in another round of afternoon clouds along with a small chance (<10%) for a few isolated showers, manly near the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas. A slightly better chance for showers will exist over south central Kansas on Friday given the forecast location of a 500mb deformation zone. Temperatures over the next few days will gradually warm from near 90 to the low to mid 90s by Saturday as a surface trough low pressure deepens over eastern Colorado and 850mb temperatures gradually warm to near 25C. Given this warming trend along with the NBM guidance showing less than 5F spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles, the current forecast still looks on track with highs on Friday similar to today (Thursday) and the Highs on Saturday being 3-5F warmer. An anomalous 594dm 500mb high will establish itself over the Central Rockies this weekend which will result in weak westerly flow developing aloft and ongoing dry conditions due to large scale subsidence under this upper high. As the upper high builds across the Central Rockies...ensembles remain in good agreement that a wedge of unseasonably warm air (850mb temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology) will develop ahead of a surface cold front that will be moving south across the northern plains as downslope flow improves. This cold front is now forecast to move into western Kansas on Monday where it will briefly stall before lifting back north as a warm front by the middle of next week. Because the wedge of unseasonably warm air ahead of the cold front is not expected to reach western Kansas until Monday, highs near 100 are no longer expected on Sunday. However, highs near 100 are still anticipated across south central and portions of southwest Kansas on Monday. Anyone with outdoor plans early next week should be prepared for these temperatures, with heat index values potential reaching 100 to near 105. These highest heat index values will primarily be located across south central Kansas near the Oklahoma border. Additionally, we will be monitoring the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and northeast of this cold front towards the middle of next week. Confidence remain low (20%) regarding the exact location of the surface boundary and the timing of any of the embedded upper waves that will be moving along the west to northwest flow. This has made it unclear where the best chances for thunderstorms will occur (in/near southwest Kansas) during the first half of the work week. At this time based on the latest ensemble clusters it currently appears that west central and north central Kansas will have the better chance for any measurable precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Clouds between 4000 and 9000ft AGL will be possible this afternoon. These clouds will dissipate by or shortly after sunset. Southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots will decrease to less than 10 knots after 00z Friday. These light winds will create a favorable environment for some patchy early morning fog and maybe even some 1000 to 1500ft AGL stratus between 09z and 15z, mainly the Dodge City and Garden City areas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert ####018002903#### FXUS63 KPAH 161656 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist into the weekend with rain chances peaking at 40 to 60% each afternoon. A stronger gusty storm cannot be ruled out on Saturday, especially northeast across southwest Indiana. - Hot and humid conditions will continue into next week with heat index values nearing 105 degrees on Tuesday. Relief arrives the latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 A broad upper level ridge will weaken this weekend with increasing daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Showers have already across the FA, with rain chances peaking this afternoon during diurnal heating. A frontal boundary eventually approaches the tri- state on Friday, followed by a weak shortwave trough Friday evening that will bring additional rain chances peaking around 40 to 60% each day. Despite 2000 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, poor lapse rates and meager shear will favor pulse convection. PWAT's over 2 inches will also support locally heavy rainfall with torrential downpours that can lead to nuisance localized flooding issues in more prone urban locations. On Saturday, sfc low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region with another frontal boundary that sags south and stalls by Sunday morning. As another shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley, a slight uptick in the shear combined with 6.5 to 7.0 C/km sfc-3km lapse rates and 25-35 K theta-e difference will support a marginal risk for isolated stronger storms. The main concern will be the potential for downbursts, especially northeast across southwest Indiana. Rain chances linger into Sunday before trending drier on Monday ahead of a cold front that will eventually move through on Tuesday. The unsettled weather will not bring much relief as heat index values will gradually trend higher, nearing 105 degrees by Tuesday before a cool down eventually arrives for the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon across the region, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions during heavy downpours. Any rain quickly diminishes tonight with the loss of diurnal heating with skies turning mostly to partly clear. Patchy fog is possible again early Friday morning, especially across the northern terminals. Calm winds tonight increase to 5-6 kts out of the west to southwest Friday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW ####018004509#### FXUS63 KFSD 161656 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions continue into the weekend. Highs in the 90s to around 100 expected, with Friday the hottest day. Dew points remain a bit below seasonal normals, aiding in lower relative humidity. Continue to take precautions from the heat to reduce risk of heat illness. - Very patchy morning valley fog is possible daily, but widespread dense fog remains unlikely. Fog could reduce visibility below two miles at times. - Precipitation is very unlikely (less than 10%) through Saturday night. Shower and storm chances return Sunday evening and night, but confidence is low on the details. && .UPDATE... Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Patchy fog with visibility below two miles has developed once again this morning, mainly focused in and near river valleys. Similar to the last few mornings, expect any fog to lift through 8-9 AM. Temperatures are in the mid 60s and 70s. Minor adjustments again to the temperatures for today, lowering them a degree or two from the NBM as NBM has remained a bit too high the last couple of days. However, no significant impacts on heat indices, which remain in the 90s for the entire area. CAMs show some potential for showers today, but expect the result to be diurnally driven cumulus since soundings are very dry and there isn't much in the way of instability/forcing. Friday still looks to be the warmest day, with the potential for heat headlines. Toward the weekend, fropa early Saturday brings northerly flow back to the area and slightly cooler but still above average temperatures. Also monitoring the potential for wildfire smoke to impact the area - confidence in significance and impacts is low at this time. Additional smoke may move in Sunday with increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Guidance remains quite varied in the details, but still looking like rain/storm chances return later in the day/night Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Very little change to the forecast for the next several days as upper level ridging continues to produce hot temperatures. So far with dew points mostly in the 60s, heat indices and heat risks have remained a bit muted, but if you need to be outdoors take any necessary heat precautions as it is still in the 90s. With a bit stronger southerly wind tonight and Thursday night overnight lows will trend warmer, likely only falling to 70 to 75 degrees. Fog chances may be lower as well because of the wind. Friday will see a front approach from the north as northwest flow aloft increases a bit, which should aid in bringing surface winds around to a bit more southwesterly direction. This should help with deeper mixing and likely higher temperatures, with most locations climbing to 95 to 102 degrees, warmest in central SD. Right now Friday appears to see the best chance for a heat headline. This front will slide into the area Friday night into Saturday morning, but is not expected to produce any showers or storms. A bit better dip in upper level flow moves through Sunday night which looks like the best chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms. For now Sunday appears to be on the dry side with any shower and storm chances moving in Sunday night. There some hints of elevated moisture and very weak instability on Sunday morning around 10-15 kft which could produce some weak ACCAS showers, but confidence very low on this. Stronger west and northwest flow aloft continues along the Canadian border into northern MN early next week, possibly becoming a bit more pronounced by Monday night into Wednesday. This should support temperatures back to around normal or maybe a touch below. This may bring some patchy showers and storms to the area as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 VFR through the period. Some diurnally driven cumulus about 4-6 kft will dissipate around sunset. Patchy early morning fog in low lying areas remains possible. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08 ####018005512#### FXUS65 KRIW 161657 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1057 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening across western and northern Wyoming. Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding is possible in any thunderstorm. - More shower and thunderstorm chances across western and northern through Saturday. The thunderstorm threat becomes more widespread across the state Sunday through the middle of next week, with a continued threat for flash flooding. - Hot temperatures are expected through Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Some locations across the Bighorn Basin and Johnson and Natrona Counties could reach 100 degrees Friday through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 It is amazing how quickly things can change with the weather in Wyoming. Just a couple days ago we were talking about record heat and very dry conditions. Well, the weather has decided to do a Freaky Friday on us and flip into full monsoon mode. We had some reports of flooding today and the chance will be around through the next several days. Water vapor imagery shows a large plume of monsoonal moisture continuing to stream northward from the Gulf of California and up through the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies. We continue to have some rain and some thunderstorms early this morning, especially in the south which just happened to light up when the previous shift left for the night. Luckily, the storms have some movement but there have been some good local rains, Big Piney got a quarter of an inch in only 20 minutes. The general trend is down through tonight and most places should be rain free by sunrise. However, things look similar to yesterday, with low level easterly upslope flow and abnormally high precipitable water levels, as high as 200 percent of normal. There is some steering flow but again, not a lot. So, it looks almost like a repeat performance of yesterday with slow moving showers and thunderstorms, although it could be a bit further east that yesterday. Instability parameters are decent as well with up to 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and lifted indices as low as minus 4. There is not a lot of upper level forcing though so most storms should largely be rain makers although you can't rule out small hail or a strong wind gust with any storm in Wyoming. With the local flooding we had yesterday and a similar setup to Wednesday, we have decided to issue a flood watch through midnight for the Absarokas, Cody Foothills as well as Hot Springs County given the favored low level easterly flow bringing upslope flow and slow movement of the storms. Like yesterday, the most numerous storms should end after sunset, but a few will linger after midnight. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but still above normal for this time of year. I still feel there may be a bit less coverage on Friday and Saturday, especially in central Wyoming. It still looks like ridge may build a back to the west somewhat on these days. This should decrease available moisture and instability somewhat, especially in eastern portions of the area. However, it will be going back to 150 to 175 percent of normal versus 200 percent, so not a huge difference. The POPs reflect this fairly well again, with the highest in the western mountains on each day. And like the previous days, most should be diurnal but a few showers could linger after midnight and possibly until sunrise the next day. Temperatures will also warm a bit, especially East of the Divide, with some of the warmer spots getting close to the 100 degree mark once again. Sunday still looks like the transition day when the monsoonal push will begin to move eastward, bring a better chance of showers and storms to areas East of the Divide and fewer storms across western Wyoming. Precipitable waters remain high all the way through much of next week as well, as high as 200 percent of climatological normals. There are still differences in the guidance in regards to which day will be the most active though, as is to be expected this far out. However, all areas should have a decent chance of getting some needed rain over the next several days. We just don't want too much at once. And unfortunately, that is a definite possibility as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1053 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 TCU have begun to form atop local mountain ranges currently, with continued development into SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. Any storms that do form will be slow-moving, with locally heavy rainfall. Main focus will be central and northern WY sites this afternoon during peak heating, shifting into KRKS early evening. No precip expected at KCPR again this afternoon. Activity will be slow to decrease in the evening, as daytime heating is strong today, and heat will be slow to release. Expect mostly clear skies and lighter winds tonight. Another round of peak heating thunderstorms returns on Saturday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for WYZ002-003-005-007. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Straub ####018003728#### FXUS63 KGLD 161658 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1058 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week. - Low chance of an isolated shower and thunderstorm this afternoon in Kansas. - Hotter Sunday and Monday nearing the triple digits. - Storm chances may return early next week as well as slightly cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1220 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2026 The short-term pattern continues to remain the same as an upper- level high is seated over the Northern and Central Rockies, allowing the blocking setup to persist. Down at 850 mb, the dominant feature is a high over the Gulf, pushing south-southeasterly air into the CWA. These features will work to gradually increase temperatures over the next few days. Highs today look to largely be in the lower 90s warming into the mid to upper 90s by Saturday afternoon. Overnight temperatures are expected to remain fairly consistent. In the western CWA, lows will cool to around 60, but the eastern CWA look to remain closer to 70. There will be a low and slowing increasing potential of patchy, nuisance fog around sunrise the next few days. Visibilities may drop to below a mile in the patchy fog, but placement confidence is too low to single out any location. As we reach peak heating in the afternoon hours the next few days, pop-up showers and storms are possible. If this convection is able to occur, we could see some dry lightning and gusty winds as the storm collapses. Confidence in this convection occurring is less than 15% each day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The upper level ridge will be nearly centered over the forecast area for the start of this period. As such highs will be quite warm for Sunday and Monday. Probabilities for highs above 95F are above 70% for both days across the forecast area. High temperature spread in the ensemble data is around five degrees for Sunday, increasing to 10 degrees for Monday. Heat index values will be close to 100F for the eastern half of the forecast area. After Monday the ridge shifts slightly to the south, allowing slightly cooler air to move into the forecast area. Probabilities for highs above 95F fall to 60% or less for Tuesday and Wednesday. There may be a couple fronts moving through between Monday night and Wednesday. This will lead to chances for rainfall. The spread in high temperatures remains around 10 degrees through the rest of the period. Looking at the environment for storms, the deep layer shear is almost nonexistent through Tuesday. Wednesday, as the ridge shifts more southward, the deep layer shear increases to around 20kts. However storm motion will be 10 MPH or less, so heavy rainfall will be a potential with any storms that develop. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites through the period. Winds are forecast to remain from the south/southeast during the day around 10-15 kts. Overnight, speeds are more likely to be around 5-10 kts with the winds potentially more from the southwest. There is a 5% chance for a quick shower/storm between 21-01Z. Severe weather is not expected. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...KAK ####018005274#### FXUS64 KMEG 161658 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing through Friday. - Triple-digit heat index values return this weekend. Heat headlines may be needed, particularly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. - A pattern change is indicated on long range guidance, producing variable high temperatures for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Zonal to southwest flow continues across the region this morning. A surface low continues to spin across West Tennessee igniting a few showers on its backside. Lapse rates remain poor, and limited heating has occurred thus far due to dense fog and thick stratus. A few thunderstorms are not out of the question this afternoon, but temperatures may not exceed 90 across our northern zones, which will suppress instability values. Any area that does receive rainfall today will have the chance for some patchy fog to develop overnight into Friday morning. Winds may stay a bit more elevated which should suppress widespread dense fog, but patchy to locally dense fog could be hazardous to motorists. By tomorrow afternoon, the aforementioned surface low will clear the area and southerly flow begins to prevail. This will result in a warming trend as well as increasing moisture. Hot and humid conditions will emerge and persist throughout the weekend. Typical, pulse-like, showers and thunderstorms could occur each afternoon with gusty winds and heavy rainfall being the primary concerns. While pulse convection is hard to pin down, the most likely affected locations will be near the Tennessee River Valley and near the AR/MO border. Any convection that does develop will be an efficient rainfall producer, with PW values near/exceeding 2". We are still expecting less than an inch of precipitation within any storm as they should be short lived. The southerly flow will persist at the surface, but flow will shift to the northwest aloft as a tropical system emerges over the Florida peninsula. Embedded in the northwest flow is a series of shortwaves that could impact the area through the weekend. Generally, the most likely area to receive rainfall for this will once again be in the northern zones. While the northern zones are more likely to be affected by the shortwave for precipitation, it will keep it a bit cooler up there and temperatures will be confined to the lower 90s with southern areas climbing to the mid to upper 90s. As temperatures and moisture climb, triple-digit heat index values will also emerge. Probabilities of reaching or exceeding 105F apparent temperatures are local to the Mississippi Delta region on Saturday with low to medium chances as early as Saturday afternoon. As southerly flow increases on Sunday, probabilities begin to increase for most areas along and West of the Mississippi River. This is likely to change and will be influenced by the presence of shortwave passages and will be evaluated daily. Prepare for heat index values in excess of 100F, but may not reach Heat Advisory criteria. A subtropical ridge will emerge behind the tropical low and gradually lift north from Sunday onward as troughing digs across the Great Lakes into the northeast region. The trough does have a cold front and will attempt to sink it south by the middle of next week, but the subtropical ridge may be too much. The poor agreement amongst models of this frontal boundary has resulted in a widespread array of temperatures for next week. In the meantime, prepare for hot and humid conditions and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace this issuance. A few light showers have formed along a surface low currently rotating over west Tennessee. As we head into the afternoon hours, coverage is expected to increase with typical daytime heating. As such, PROB30s have been drawn in at JBR/MKL/TUP for - TSRA this afternoon. CAMs continue to struggle with overall coverage as the surface low rotates over the Mid-South, so pattern recognition was the main driver of thunderstorms this afternoon. Overnight, fog and reduced visibility is expected to impact MKL as winds go light along saturated soils. Southwest winds will remain 10 kts or less over the next 30 hours. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as tropical moisture continues to impact the Mid-South. Wetting rain chances will linger into next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AEH