####018005767#### FXUS63 KMQT 082357 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 757 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant weather today as temperatures run cooler than in previous days. Temperatures remain near normal this weekend through much of next week. - Rain shower and thunderstorm chances return for Sunday and will be on and off in the middle of next week. Strong to severe storms are not expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Afternoon conditions are quiet in the wake of the shortwave and cold front, courtesy of the weak high pressure ridging extending overhead from IA/IL. Visible satellite shows a plume of wildfire smoke spanning the Northern Plains across IA and southern MN, but sfc observations do not indicate this is currently resulting in vis restrictions and significant air quality impacts. GOES WV imagery shows broad mid level troughing across central Canada which largely will not change until mid next week, yielding quazi-zonal flow over the Upper Great Lakes. This means that through early next week, precip chances will be supported by diurnal instability and driven by transient shortwaves/frontal boundaries. The rest of today remains dry. Highs will be more seasonable in the 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies. Southwest low level flow points toward lifting the aforementioned smoke into the region with the HRRR smoke model suggesting this will be overhead by this evening. Left mention out of the gridded forecast for now given the HRRR model disagreement with the RAP/Canadian smoke models as well as no surface impacts are expected. That said, hazy skies are possible before cloud cover increases tonight. Mostly dry conditions continue tonight as temps settle into the 50s to low 60s, coldest in the interior. Chances for showers return from the west late tonight as a weak frontal boundary sags south from northern Ontario alongside a shortwave. Limited and capped elevated instability (<500 J/kg) with strong shear (~50 kts) will be present so thunder can't be ruled out with this elevated convection, but strong to severe storms are not expected. This initial round hangs out mostly over Lake Superior and the Keweenaw, but isolated showers could grace the west and northern shores into Sunday morning (20-30% chance). PoPs expand to the rest of the UP the remainder of Sunday as diurnal instability builds, the front continues to sag over the CWA, and a upper level jet streak passes overhead. Instability will be run of the mill for meager summertime convection (mean values well below 1000 J/kg, 90th percentile reaches near 1000 J/kg over the west and south-central) with continued strong shear up to 40 kts. Given lackluster moisture and forcing, severe storms are not expected. CAMs are not in great agreement on coverage and timing; some of which have little to any precip whatsoever (HRRR). Unsurprisingly, precip probabilities reflect this unimpressive set up with only 20- 50% chances for amounts exceeding 0.25 inches. Dry weather returns for Sunday night and Monday. Lows dip into normal temps in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The rest of the forecast sees a slow trend to slightly cooler than normal temps as highs trend toward upper 60s to mid 70s for the end of the work week with lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Shortwaves Tuesday and Wednesday bring low chances for showers and storms (mostly 15-30% chance), then drier weather is favored into the weekend as stronger high pressure returns. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 756 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 VFR conditions prevail across Upper Michigan under mostly clear skies this evening, with some mid to high level clouds noted upstream over Minnesota and Ontario in association with a weak disturbance progged to slide across the region tonight into Sun morning. This will bring PROB30 shower chances to all terminals after 06z tonight. Still expect VFR conditions through the TAF period as latest HREF guidance only shows a 20-30% chance for MVFR conditions, but can't rule out some intermittent bouts of lower cigs. Also can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder to accompany showers, but chances are low enough (15-20%) as to not warrant inclusion in TAFs. Winds turn south-southwesterly tonight but generally stay below 10 kt through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Lake Superior winds continue shifting to the southwest this afternoon as channeling along the Keweenaw shores and near Isle Royale forces wind gusts to around 25 kts. Winds then fall mainly below 20 kts tonight, settling further to 15 kts or less on Sunday. Rain showers over the lake tonight may lead to additional fog development Sunday/Sunday night. With the exception of northeast winds gusting up to 25 kts Thursday morning near Granite Island, winds likely (75% chance) remain below 20 kts lakewide the remainder of the forecast through next week. West-northwest winds this afternoon over northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan back southerly by this evening around 10- 15 kts. Winds increase to 15-20 kts on Sunday, then quickly fall off for Sunday night. Winds and gusts likely (75% chance) remain 15 kts or less the rest of the forecast through next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...CB MARINE...77 ####018004800#### FXUS65 KCYS 082357 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 557 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM Saturday through 9 PM Sunday for all of southeast Wyoming for very low humidities and significant gusty winds. - Hot temperatures continue through the start of the week before a pattern change begins to occur as precipitation chances start to rise and temperatures fall, dropping to below normal by the later half of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 256 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026 The upper level ridge starts to weaken and flatten this weekend. This will allow a few shortwaves to push across the area for potential showers. However, models soundings are the high based inverted V today and sunday. So for today no qpf was added to the forecast since it will be so dry at the surface that if it did "rain", the precip will likely evaporate and produce gusty showers. There is a little more forcing with respect to the available vorticity increasing synoptic ascent with the wave on Sunday. So a whole hundredth of qpf was inserted in the grids for the chance of something making it to the ground but also don't hold your breath for measurable precip this weekend. The pressure/height gradient also gets slightly tightened at the 700mb with each upcoming wave. For today, the "ridge arc" has the apex occur over the western portion of Wyoming/upper Utah/lower Idaho area and arcs downward to put us near a West/northwest flow over our southeast wyoming area. Wind gusts may reach around 35 mph this afternoon and potentially around 55 to 60mph underneath these afternoon/evening showers. The Nebraska Panhandle will see the fairly usual 20 mph winds today but could see those 30 mph winds tomorrow as the ridge really flattens out over our area. Otherwise we will continue our warm temperature trend this weekend as the 700mb temperatures stay between 15 to 18C. So high temperatures will stay in the 90's with some areas in our northern counties exceeding 100 degrees today and get near 100 on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 256 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026 This long-term forecast period will continue a suppressed ridge pattern. The 500mb jet keeps stationed over the PNW and into the Rockies and high plains areas of Montana through northern Wyoming. Precipitation chances increase as the week goes on, with PWAT values increasing daily. Wednesday through Friday looks to be the best chances of precipitation. Severe weather does not appear to be a threat at this time in southeast Wyoming due to mostly light westerly flow in the mid and upper levels. Nebraska on the other hand has better chances of severe weather. As the ridge pushes south and suppresses, faster flow aloft moves in. Wind shear values look to be around 30-40 knots which have the potential to produce multicellular storms. Warm conditions continue through most of this long-term period, but with those precipitation chances mid - end week, temperatures likely will likely be lower than earlier in the week. 700mb temperatures show ranges from the teens to mid-teens, supporting a cooler end of the week. Fire weather will continue to be a concern through Monday with low RHs and some gusty winds. With precipitable water, RHs, RH recoveries, and precipitation chances increasing throughout the week, fire weather concerns fade away. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 545 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Isolated virga showers moving through the area will bring approximately a 30% chance for gusty and erratic winds near Wyoming terminals for the next 2-3 hours. A few thunderstorms are currently between CDR and AIA. While direct impacts are not expected at CDR, these may move through AIA over the next few hours. Moisture return overnight will also bring a chance (20%) for fog and/or low CIGs at AIA, but this probability was too low to add to the TAF at this time. For Sunday, expect westerly winds to kick up again in Wyoming, while winds turn all around the compass in Nebraska. More widespread high-based shower activity is expected Sunday afternoon and evening, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning possible. PROB30 groups have been introduced to cover this hazard. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Air Quality Alert until noon MDT Monday for WYZ101>119. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ417>433. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...ML/AM AVIATION...MN ####018004328#### FXUS64 KSHV 082357 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 657 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 - Best chances for decent rainfall over the next 7-days will be this afternoon. While chances won't be zero outside of today, they will certainly be limited. - Summertime heat will continue through the weekend, while heat index values will remain below hazard criteria, they will be borderline and it will be hot nonetheless. - Drought conditions and fire weather concerns will continue to increase as the hot and mostly dry weather continues. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 The radar has been very active today, mainly around and near the I-30 corridor, where a very slow moving line of showers and thunderstorms has dropped a decent amount of rain. While this activity did cover a large area from west to east, there remains large portions of counties that got no rain. For example, 6-hour flash flood guidance has estimated upwards of 3-5 inches of rainfall across central Howard county, with no rainfall across the northern portion of the county. So while it will give some relief in drought and fire weather concerns, it will not be enough to bring widespread help. Short range models hint that the convection will gradually come to an end late this afternoon and into the evening, however, they have not been handling this very well, so I kept PoPs going till around midnight. Today looks like our last good chance for some widespread precipitation across the region. We still have some low chances across portions of the area for Sunday and Monday, but models are showing much drier conditions heading into next week. Temperatures: It's the south, its halfway between the start and middle of August...it is going to be hot. The main question is how hot. In terms of ambient afternoon highs, the story continues that we will be stagnant, meaning not much variability in daily afternoon high temperatures, at least through Tuesday. Similarly, low temperatures will follow in the same trend. As we move into the middle of next week, afternoon highs will return to the the upper 90s across the region, with some 100s sprinkled in across portions of the area. All indications are that these increased temperatures (compared to what we see through Tuesday) will last into next weekend. So I guess to sum that up, it is going to be hot through Tuesday and then get hotter from there into next weekend. Heat index values will remain elevated each day, reaching into the lower to mid 100s, but still not seeing enough to issue any sort of heat headlines for at least Sunday. Moving into Monday and next week will be a different story. /33/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 For the ArkLaTex terminals, all sites have been under the gun this aftn from an outflow arcing down from the I-30 and the N'wd lifting sea breeze. Convection continues to slowly move toward an end with sunset at hr away. Light S/SW winds prevail overnight and bump speeds to 5-10KT on Sunday. Models indicate possible light BR/VCSH E of I-49 around daybreak. The water vapor shows a shear axis overhead that is weakening, but will bring one last decent round of p.m. convection, now modeled to straddle I-20 again mid to late aftn with a hotter/drier trend this work week. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Widespread spotter activation is not expected at this time, but any reports of flooding would be appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 95 77 95 / 20 10 0 0 MLU 74 95 75 96 / 10 30 0 10 DEQ 70 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 74 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 0 ELD 71 93 73 95 / 20 20 0 10 TYR 76 97 76 97 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 75 97 74 97 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 74 95 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...19 ####018005324#### FXUS62 KCHS 082357 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 757 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor updates made to Key Message 1 and the Marine Section for trends tonight. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) The typical summertime pattern will continue this weekend into next week. The threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall will exist each day. - 2) Hot and humid conditions will return next week. - 3) Minor coastal flooding possible along the South Carolina coast with evening high tide cycles next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: The typical summertime pattern will continue this weekend into next week. The threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall will exist each day. High pressure will gradually build back into the area from the east overnight leading to a transition back towards a more standard summertime pattern. Tomorrow may be the one day where things could remain a little drier than normal as trends in guidance have supported less development along the afternoon seabreeze than previous runs. Like most days, the seabreeze will be the driving factor for storms as it pushes inland with the diurnal heating of the land areas. Some shortwave ridging will likely be in place tomorrow in the wake of the system going through today likely leading to some subsidence across our area. This subsidence or sinking motion will likely limit what the seabreeze will be able to cook up during the afternoon and with that we have lowered the rain chances to more isolated to low end scattered. By the early to middle parts of next week, storm chances should return to a more normal pattern with more scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. With area wide PWATS remaining in the 2 inch range, any storms that do develop will be possible of locally heavy rainfall. Couple this with some inverted V soundings by the middle part of the week and a couple strong to severe storms especially Tuesday through Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid conditions will return next week. Heat and humidity is expected to return next week, especially mid to late week. Highs are forecast to peak in the mid 90s, with heat indices of 100+. Areas east of I-95 and closer to the coast will see the highest heat indices, generally averaging in the 105-110F range. Heat Advisories could be required. Overnight lows will also be seasonally warm in these locations, only falling to the upper 70s. NWS HeatRisk currently shows a Major (level 3/4) HeatRisk, especially Tuesday through late week, so regardless of heat product issuance, these conditions will bring a risk of heat-related impacts, especially to those more vulnerable to heat or those without adequate cooling/hydration. KEY MESSAGE 3: Minor coastal flooding possible along the South Carolina coast with evening high tide cycles next week. Elevated tide cycles are expected next week due to the upcoming perigee and new moon. Base astronomical levels in the Charleston Harbor with the evening high tides Monday through Thursday will be in the 6.4-6.6 ft MLLW range, so it will not take much to approach minor coastal flood thresholds (7.0 ft MLLW). However, south- southwest flow should keep departures low, limiting the overall coastal flood threat. This also jives with some of the latest probabilistic guidance. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV through 00Z Monday. However, there is a low risk for patchy fog to develop near the SAV terminal late tonight/around daybreak Sunday and a few showers that could impact any terminal briefly early Sunday afternoon. Confidence is too low to include TEMPO or PROB30 groups at any terminal for the latest TAF issuance. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Tonight into Sunday Morning: Scattered showers and storms will likely develop across the nearshore waters during the early morning hours with the development of the overnight land breeze. Conditions will once again be favorable for the development of waterspouts across the nearshore and offshore waters of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia, including the Charleston Harbor. The waterspout risk will be highest near lines of towering clouds and in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will become less favorable for waterspout development by late this morning as the sea breeze begins to form along the beaches. Sunday through Thursday: The coastal waters will largely remain in between Atlantic high pressure and a trough of low pressure inland. This set-up favors south to southwest winds through the period. Winds speeds and seas are forecast to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$