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FXUS63 KFGF 221204

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

704 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early

  evening in southeast North Dakota. Near critical fire weather

  conditions for the Red Rive valley for parts of west central

  MN.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Band of elevated light rain showers exztends from Langdon

southwest to near Bismarck. Few sprinkles are reaching the

ground in spots but not much more than that. Did update pops

earlier to cap at 20 pct so to have a slight chance wording. BIS

updated to add a mention of thunder to the far northern part of

ND and I added it as well. CAPE values of a couple hundred, but

most of the instability is more in S Manitoba. Rest of the

forecast is looking on target. 





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Upper level wave will continue to move east-southeast from

southern Saskatchewan this morning to near Winnipeg this evening

and then toward Duluth 12z Tuesday. Moisture ahead of this

feature is very limited as sfc trough moves into west fcst area

12z period and moves east thru the morning and early aftn. 

Some low pops for a shower willl continue but not looking like

much. West winds behind this trough will increase with soundings

showing max winds aloft more in west central into south central

ND with west wind potential in the 25-35 mph in gusts into

southeast ND with sustained winds 20 mph. This combined with RH

values dropping to near 20 percent in east central and southeast

ND will lead to critical fire weather conditions based on North

Dakota Fire Weather Red Flag matrix. Clouds, a bit more moisture

will remain or move into northeast ND mid to late aftn as upper

wave moves to our north/northeast. Clouds and a few light rain

showers will spread southeast thru the area tonight exiting

west central MN Tuesday morning as upper wave goes by to our

east. A period of gusty north winds will occur Tuesday morning

with gusts 35 mph.  



There will be steep lapse rates of 8-9.5 C/km behind the cold 

front along with low level dry air across the Highway 200 

corridor points south. Precipitation will need to overcome the 

dry air to reach the surface in southeastern North Dakota and 

west central Minnesota. 



We will see ridging making its way into the region mid week, 

with warmer airmass moving in. Highs upper 50s to mid 60s 

Wednesday and mid 60s to mid 70s on Thursday. Despite the warm 

tempeatures on Thursday dew points will be higher, at least as 

it appears now, with lowest RH values well above critical fire 

weather values. 



Upper level trough enters the western US Thursday setting the

stage for an active period for the Plains. One wave will bring

showers and a few t-storms into our area mainly Friday, with

additional waves after so thus due to timing differences we end

up with an extended period of POPs. Chances to see QPF of 0.25 

inches over 48 hours (Thursday night through Saturday night) is 

40-60% for areas south east of the Devils Lake Basin.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Mid clouds moving thru the area this morning with surface

trough, then likely clearing for a while before lower clouds

with 500 mb low moves into NE ND late aftn/eve and spreads south

tonight then clears out Tuesday. Winds quite changeable as they

go from south to southwest, then west and gusty this aftn/eve

and then more northwest late tonight. 







&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



West winds will move into southeast and east central ND midday

and be present thru the evening. Strongest winds to be west of

our area, but sufficiently strong winds (sustained 20-25 mph)

and gusts 35 mph will occur into SE ND combined with a very dry

airmass in place with lowest RH values near 20 percent to bring

critical fire weather conditions from Eddy to Trail county ND

and south. In western Minnesota RH values just a tad higher and

winds also a tad lower and conditions look good for an SPS for

near critical fire weather from Norman county to Grant County

MN. This was coord with MPX/ABR for MN SPS and with BIS for RFW.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this 

     evening for NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Riddle

DISCUSSION...Riddle

AVIATION...Riddle

FIRE WEATHER...Riddle