####018005277#### FXUS63 KFGF 042012 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 212 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating light snow may impact the early Friday morning commute within southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. - Clipper systems bring additional opportunities for winter impacts this weekend into next week, particularly around Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...Synopsis... The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will be generally in the midst of northwest flow aloft in between broad upper troughing centered near the Hudson Bay and upper ridging over the eastern Pacific. Upper jet max on the crest of the Pacific upper trough will help continually feed energy and moisture into the western CONUS and CAN, at times phasing with shortwave troughing on the western flanks of the Hudson Bay troughing. This allows several shortwave troughs/clippers to traverse the Northern Plains and Midwest as guided by a rather stagnate baroclinic zone draped northwest to southeast across the Northern Plains into the Midwest. This will be the case throughout the forecast period ending into mid next week. This active pattern will continue to bring periodic episodes of snow/wintry precipitation, gusty winds, as well as variable temperatures ranging from near average to below average. Each clipper will bring its own potential for winter impacts, mainly in the sub-advisory category, with the exception of Tuesday and Wednesday. More details can be found below regarding early potential impacts early Friday morning and Tuesday into Wednesday. Below average temperatures are most favored this weekend behind a cold front that moves through during the day Friday. Sub-zero temperatures are forecast, with wind chill values into the negative 20s Saturday and Sunday. ...Potential Impacts to Early Friday Morning Commute... The next clipper to impact the area comes across ND into MN late tonight into Friday. Ensemble and high resolution guidance all suggest deep saturation throughout the column, including within an area of synoptic forcing mainly via vorticity advection, lending credence in snow production. Steep lapse rates aloft juxtaposed with saturation and forcing will allow for convective elements to percolate within the area of snow as it traverses generally west to east across southeast ND into west-central MN early Friday morning. While forcing is present, it isn't overly strong. This will keep overall snow amounts lower, with 25th-75th percentile accumulation in the 0.5 to 2.5 inch range. Additionally, a lack of surface pressure gradient and cold air advection will keep winds relatively light during its passage. This wouldn't normally pose an impact, however, it does move through the I-94 corridor and Fargo-Moorhead metro area within the early Friday morning commute hours between 4 AM and 8 AM. Thus, this seemingly innocuous light snow accumulation may impact unaware morning commuters. Decided to message this potential for this particular reason. ...Tuesday and Wednesday Potential Impacts... While there are several potential generally weak clipper systems between Friday and Tuesday, ensemble guidance agrees in Tuesday/Wednesday clipper carrying more strength and moisture, thus greater potential for impacts. Ensembles still vary in important synoptic evolutions to pin point impact potential and types of weather hazards that lead to impacts. Despite this variation, impacts from accumulating snow, gusty winds/blowing snow, and even wintry precipitation that may result in icing potential, all appear plausible. Currently, the chance for advisory-type impacts from this clipper sits at 40%, with warning-type impacts being around 10%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Impacts to aviation are forecast at all sites, mainly from lowered ceilings and visibility reductions in the MVFR to IFR category. Weak low pressure system moving through the region is creating gusty south and southwest winds between 15-30kt. This is causing some areas of blowing snow, mainly within the Red River Valley, reducing visibility to 1-3SM at sites like KGFK. This will remain possible through 00Z. Light snow in northwest Minnesota is also creating visibility reductions in similar range, also through 00Z. Lowered ceilings MVFR to IFR category are being reported, although it is hard to discern whether this is due to blowing snow/haze or actual cloud deck at sites like KGFK. Regardless, high resolution and ensemble guidance favors these lowered ceilings to remain in place throughout the TAF period as another system quickly moves through tonight into Friday morning. This second system will bring light snow and lowered visibilities to portions of southeast ND into west-central MN, impacting KFAR after 10Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ ####018004409#### FXUS63 KGRR 042012 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 312 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of light snow late Friday and again Sunday - Accumulating snow possible with systems mid to late week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Periods of light snow late Friday and again Sunday As noted previously, we are looking at a brief window of lake effect flurries by the lakeshore this afternoon thanks to a thin layer of convective cloudiness in the DGZ. Surface observations and satellite indicate a land breeze induced convergence band that is slowly pushing offshore between Little Sable Point and Holland, which will similarly displace the area of flurries offshore. No changes in expectations regarding the next system beginning later Friday and Friday night. The 04/12Z HRRR looks scary in terms of forecast reflectivity during this time, especially over Lake MI, but this is likely related to the HRRR's Thompson microphysics scheme that has a penchant for creating water-coated crystals. This yields large simulated reflectivity, but not necessarily large precipitation rates. Best accumulations still look to be over the northwest forecast area. Lake Michigan, being substantially warmer than the surrounding coastal areas, will be able to induce a thermal pressure trough that could enhance convergence along the eastern lakeshore, but even with this in play, we are dealing with limited moisture, sub-optimal crystal growth, and therefore modest accumulations. Farther south, along and south of Grand Rapids, there is a signal for brief freezing drizzle Friday night towards midnight that, from a time of day/week perspective, may pose limited risks, but could still be sneaky in terms of causing slippery travel on overpasses and other exposed areas. Our next accumulating snow episode arrives Sunday morning. This will be associated with somewhat more phasing between the northern and southern streams. However, it appears that the best PV forcing manages to bifurcate our area, meaning limited snowfall accumulations for much of southwest Lower MI, albeit a better chance for some snow along and south of I-96 compared to Friday night. - Accumulating snow possible with systems mid to late week As noted previously, we expect at least one potentially impactful system towards mid-week with a seasonably deep surface low expected to cross Lower MI around Wednesday. Any time a surface low is forecasted to cross directly over the forecast area, this often sets the stage for a potentially diverse and complex precipitation type forecast that is also highly susceptible to change based on the track of the surface low. This system is no exception and will be a chief focus for concern in the coming days. There is a signal for yet another shortwave trough and round of winter precipitation towards the end of the work week - but all we can really say now is that the latter half of the week looks to be unsettled with perhaps a favoring of more lake effect by the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue through Friday morning. Winds will shift southwest overnight with some gusts near Lake Michigan over 20 knots beginning late tonight. Areas of LLWS can be expected across parts of western Lower Michigan late tonight into Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Have maintained the Gale warning and added a Small Craft Advisory for all remaining marine zones to the south that will last well into Saturday. It still looks like the Whitehall to Pentwater region immediately south of the Gale warning could see 2-3 hours of gale conditions tonight, but this is a pretty borderline situation and have therefore elected to leave things as is for now. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for LMZ844>848. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ849. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT AVIATION...Ostuno MARINE...TJT ####018006043#### FXUS63 KABR 042012 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 212 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Downslope winds expected from Sisseton south to Brandt this afternoon, with gusts from 40-50 mph. This will create areas of blowing/drifting snow with localized areas of reduced visibilities down to a mile at times. - System late tonight into Friday bringing generally around an inch or less of light snow. Areas in south central SD could see freezing rain to a wintry mix of precipitation tonight, which could cause a light glaze on surfaces Friday morning. - Snow chances (50-70%) return Saturday as a clipper system moves through, producing a dusting of snow to the north and an inch or two of snow south of US-212. There will be periodic lower chances for snow (20-40%) through early next week, as more weak weather systems have the potential to move through the region. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 As of 20z, strong downsloping winds are gusting along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau. This is leading to wind gust observations of 40-50 mph in areas, as well as drifting and patchy blowing snow locally reducing visibilities down to a mile or less at times. These strong winds will continue to stay strong into the evening before weakening again. Tonight, a small clipper will move into central and northeastern SD from ND. This clipper will mostly bring light snow flurries for north central SD tonight and for northeastern SD late tonight through Friday morning. There is a bit of warmer air aloft, and this should cool below freezing for most areas before precipitation starts to fall. However, south central SD could stay warmer aloft for longer causing the snow to melt as it falls before it reaches the surface. Since surface temperatures will be around/below freezing, this melted snow could freeze as it reaches the ground leading to freezing rain or a wintry mix of precipitation. It is possible for a light glaze of ice to form in a line from the Pierre and Redfield areas and to the south. Snowfall amounts look to be an inch or less, higher amounts in northeastern SD. Temperatures will continue be warmer than previous days with tomorrow forecast to have highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. At the same time, wind chills will stay above 0, with most areas getting into the teens to lower 20s tonight and tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 General theme for the long term part of the forecast is northwesterly flow aloft leading to clipper systems moving through the region every 18-24hrs. This will bring periods of light snow with the clippers and variable temperatures (warming in front of and colder behind). All in all, the lighter snow should only lead to minor impacts as accumulations will generally be a light dusting to an inch or two at the most (primarily on Fri night into Saturday in central SD). The greatest uncertainty with these clipper systems comes with the amounts and location of the greatest snowfall for the Friday night into Saturday system. The uncertainty has been there for the last several days, largely with the track of the surface low and the intensity of the Canadian high to the north. It does seem like we're seeing more consistency now with the low tracking from central MT on Friday night to central NE by Saturday afternoon. This will lead to snow occurring on the north-northeast side of the low and tied to the 850-700mb warm air advection and FGen forcing. The swath of snow is expected to stretch southeast across central SD and into southeast SD, but the exact track is still a little uncertain. The latest in the ensemble snowfall amounts highlight a dusting (10-25th percentile) to over 3" (90-95th percentile) for the Mobridge/Pierre/Faulkton area and then lesser amounts as you head farther to the northeast. The trend does continue to point towards the greatest amounts being to the south of our forecast area on Saturday, as the forcing intensifies in southeast SD. Will need to continue to fine-tune this forecast over the next day. Behind that clipper, high pressure builds in for Saturday night into Sunday morning before the next clipper, but this looks to be drier and struggles as it runs into the high over central SD. The next potential clipper for Sunday night into Monday looks to be farther north (more of a eastern ND and northern MN snow), before the next one on Tues night into Wed (this one is a little farther south and does bring some snow potential to northeast SD and rain/snow to central SD). As mentioned above, these clippers appear to be lighter on snow than Saturday and only expect a light dusting. Fortunately, with the snow on the ground, no significant winds expected at this time (limiting blowing snow), although probabilities of 34kt or greater do increase to above 50% for Tues/Wed next week with that clipper. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR ceilings due to lake effect at KMBG will be clearing in the next hour or two to VFR ceilings. KATY could continue to see clouds causing the ceiling to bounce between MVFR/VFR through the afternoon while KABR and KPIR will see VFR conditions. There is a chance for some light snow to move in over KMBG, KABR, KATY tonight, with lower MVFR ceilings during that time. Due to warmer temperatures, KPIR has the chance to receive some light freezing rain around and a bit after midnight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vipond LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...12 ####018011298#### FXUS61 KAKQ 042014 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 314 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool weather continues into next week. Light snow is expected tonight into Friday across most of the area. Precipitation chances over to a wintry mix or all rain by Friday afternoon before ending. Primarily dry conditions are expected from this weekend through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Snowfall totals have increased and therefore have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory. - The snow arrival time has trended earlier. - Light freezing drizzle remains possible mainly Friday afternoon into Friday night. Afternoon surface analysis shows a strong (~1032mb) area of high pressure over the Midwest with a weak area of low pressure along a stationary front in the northern Gulf. Temps as of 2 PM ranged from the upper 40s to around 50F across the region under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Cloud cover increases this evening ahead of the next system. Aloft, a shortwave impacts the area from this evening through early Friday afternoon with another moving south of the area Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop just offshore of the Southeast coast late tonight before moving NE Fri. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure slides to the north of the local area tonight before sliding off the Mid Atlantic coastline Fri afternoon. Recent model trends have continued to favor an earlier arrival time of the moisture tonight. As such, have PoPs increasing to 30-40% across the Piedmont by 1 AM with snow expected across most areas by 3-4 AM. Given the quicker timing of precip, snow is the favored precipitation type across most of the area with freezing rain chances continuing to dwindle. Expect snow for the morning commute across most of the area (90-100% PoPs) with a wintry mix of rain and snow or plain rain across far SE VA/NE NC where surface temps are a bit warmer. Additionally, overnight lows in the mid 20s across the NW Piedmont to lower 30s across SE VA and interior NE NC (mid to upper 30s along the coast of far SE VA/NE NC) are expected. This means that snow should have no issue accumulating tonight into Fri morning. As such, use caution if driving and plan for winter weather impacts. Given the faster timing of the snow, snow is now expected to taper off by late Fri morning into early Fri afternoon with the potential for a light wintry mix inland and rain across SE VA/NE NC. Temps remain cool on Fri with highs only around freezing across the Piedmont and mid-upper 40s across far SE VA/NE NC. Therefore, little melting is expected inland. Given the increased moisture at a more favorable time of day for snowfall accumulation, overall snowfall totals have increased to 2-3" across most inland areas, 1-2" across SE VA, Northampton (NC), and the Eastern Shore (outside of the MD beaches). As such, have expanded the Winter Weather Advisories to include all of the Eastern Shore (outside of the MD beaches) as well as most of E VA to Hampton and Isle of Wight County. While there is some potential for light accumulations of mainly <1" across Suffolk in VA and Hertford and Gates Counties in NC, confidence for 1-2" was too low to add these areas to the advisory at this time. Will note that there is potential for a swath of 3-4"+ of snow across Prince Edward County to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond Metro). However, while the global models have increases snowfall totals, hi- res guidance was lower. This can be seen in the prob for 4" of snow which was 30-55% for the NBM and <10% for the HREF. Therefore, confidence was too low to forecast Winter Storm Warning criteria snow at this time. That being said, will have to monitor trends (in both radar and forecast models) to see whether or not this higher end potential can be realized. If confidence increases in reaching 4"+ of snowfall, a short-fused Winter Storm Warning may be warranted. Outside of snowfall, forecast soundings continue to show the potential for mainly light drizzle (plain or freezing drizzle if surface temps are below freezing) from Fri afternoon into Fri night. As such, a light glaze of ice remains possible. However, any freezing rain looks to be very light. Given the saturated soundings and widespread cloud cover Fri night, NBM temps are likely too cold. Still expect below freezing temps, however, the HRRR and NAM showed lows closer to 30F instead of the low-mid 20s across the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool and primarily dry weather continues through the weekend. Low pressure moves offshore Saturday with high pressure building in. As such, primarily dry weather is expected this weekend apart from a low chance for a few light showers across NE NC Sat. Additionally, cool weather continues with highs in the mid 40s for most Sat and mid 40s N to low-mid 50s S Sun. Lows Sat night and Sun night remain in the mid-upper 20s inland and mid-upper 30s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM EST Thursday... - Below average temperatures continue into early next week. - Moderating temperatures are possible by mid to late week. The general model consensus is for primarily dry conditions to continue through the middle of next week. The ensembles show a shortwave trough moving across the area on Monday underneath a longwave trough across the East Coast. Models and ensembles continue to show a more suppressed system with a surface low likely remaining offshore. As such, confidence in any precip Mon has decreased with only 15-25% PoPs early Mon. Otherwise, some light precip is possible Wed night into Thu (20-30% PoPs), however, rain is the most likely precip type at this time. Highs remain cool early in the week with temps in the upper 30s N to mid 40s SE Mon and upper 30s to around 40F NW to upper 40s SE Tue. However temps moderate by mid week with highs in the upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Wed and Thu. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Thursday... VFR conditions continue at all terminals with NW winds becoming NE at 5-12 kt (highest at ORF where gusts to 20 kt are possible tonight). Then, rapidly deteriorating conditions are expected with light to occasionally moderate snow moving into RIC by ~07z and SBY/PHF by ~10z. VSBYs will vary between 0.5-2 SM in the snow...with the best chc for moderate snow/0.5 SM VSBYs at RIC. ORF/ECG should see precip begin by 09-11z (mainly rain but snow may mix in at ORF). Snow tapers to drizzle from west to east between 13-17z (with freezing drizzle possible at RIC as temps struggle to rise above 32F throughout the day). Precip may change to rain at PHF before tapering to drizzle. CIGs drop to MVFR/IFR by 08-10z with IFR CIGs expected at all terminals during the day on Friday. Drizzle may continue through Fri evening before drier conditions return Fri night (though low CIGs could persist through Fri night). Outlook: Mainly dry Sat-Sun, though some low chances for precipitation and the potential for periodic flight restrictions may linger in the SE. && .MARINE... As of 255 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - A dry cold front passes through the this afternoon elevating winds out of the north overnight. - Calmer conditions expected for the weekend. Another round of SCAs is expected early next week. Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1030mb high pressure over the southern Great Lakes and a broad low pressure hugging the Gulf Coast. The dry cold front is now passing through the area however winds are still around 10 kt. This is due to the dry air lagging behind. Seas this afternoon are continuing to linger around 2 to 3ft ft across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across the bay. In the next couple of hours once the dry air enters the area winds will quickly increase across all waters and will be between 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt. Seas will also increase to 2 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 5 ft across the ocean. Winds increase high enough to issue SCA for the bay, lower James, Sound, and the ocean waters. The winds will subside around 7z across the bay and lower James and the threat for SCA conditions will diminish. Across the Sound the winds will not subside until ~12z. For the oceans, winds will primarily be below SCA criteria with maybe a brief gust of 25 kt across the north, seas will increase to 5ft across the north and perhaps 6ft across the southern two ocean zones as the high moves across the north shifting winds out of the NE. SCA for the northern two ocean zones will go into effect at 21z and last through 12z tomorrow. While the southern 3 zones will go into effect later tonight and last through tomorrow afternoon as seas will remain elevated. In addition to the SCA snow/rain showers are expected early tomorrow morning. These showers will reduce visibility across the waters. Through the weekend benign marine conditions are expected as high pressure settles overhead. Winds will remain primarily out of the north with winds around 10 to 15 kt and seas between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 across the ocean. By next week marine conditions ill become elevated as a much colder but dry cold front will pass through the area. Confidence in SCA conditions is high Monday into Tuesday. Will note there is the potential for some Gale force winds as the airmass that will be moving in is quite strong and local wind probs have jumped to 40 to 50% across the ocean zones and 20 to 40% across the bay for wind gusts >= 34kt. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MDZ021>024. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ012. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for VAZ077-078-084>086-099-100. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for VAZ092-093-523>525. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090- 509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...ERI MARINE...HET