####018002930#### FXUS63 KPAH 231846 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 146 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany a cold front on its approach today and passage tonight. - A stormier pattern emerges with a weekend warmup. The best chance of stronger storms is late Sunday into Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 As a cold front currently to our north heads this way, it will spread its clouds/pcpn chances southward with it. There is not much instability to work with down here, but it is overachieving with thunder across central MO attm. There may be just enough convergence and lift from the distinct boundary itself to help with clapping a storm off here or there, so we'll maintain the isolated mention we've inherited until the front's complete passage. This occurs overnight, coincident with about a 3-5 hour period of light shower activity. High end storm total QPF should range from 1/3-1/2 inch north, to 1/4 inch or less south. Surface high pressure takes over after fropa, providing a seasonally pleasant mid week with temperatures returning toward climo norms in the lower 70s and lower 50s for highs/lows. Toward week's end, the aforementioned surface high migrates over the upper Ohio Valley, while ridging aloft builds in/across the Mid Mississippi Valley. This brings a return of above normal temperatures with a warmup that carries into/thru the weekend. 80s make their return for highs and 60s for lows. With the warming profile comes a moistening one as well, and instability builds over the course of the weekend as dew points return to the 60s. This leads to an introduction of more or less daily pops, with best chances associated with nearing systems Friday into Friday night, and then again Sunday into Sunday night. The latter of these two would appear to bring together better the necessary elements of moisture, instability, and lift, in more cohesive fashion, to support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Visible imagery shows mass cloudiness approaching the terminals with a cold front's move our direction from the north. Lowering VFR CIGS will produce scattered showers that may offer VSBY restrictions in heavier pockets. Gusty south to southwest winds will precede the front, then upon its passage overnight, winds shift to the northwest and diminish as bases scatter. Tranquil Visual Flight Rules take hold by the planning period and beyond with only a few high clouds forecast and a light north breeze. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ ####018004995#### FXUS61 KBGM 231848 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 248 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching storm system will bring gusty winds and increasing clouds to the area this evening. Rain showers will increase overnight through Wednesday morning, with cooler weather moving in Wednesday and Wednesday night. Warmer and drier conditions will return for the end of the week, but more rain is on the way for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Update... Satellite imagery shows increasing high clouds moving into CNY, while lower clouds and scattered showers extend across the Ontario Peninsula into the Midwest states. Some radar returns are also noted around Rochester, but with drier air prevalent in the low levels (note 30-40 degree sfc dewpoint depressions), this is almost certainly virga. So the the overall forecast thinking is mostly unchanged. Light showers currently over Ontario will work into the western Finger Lakes around or shortly after sunset this evening, but will tend to weaken as they head east of I-81. Additional showers will overspread the region after midnight into Wednesday morning, still favoring CNY over NEPA. Shower activity will diminish towards midday, with a dry end to the day. In the meantime, we'll still have some gusty winds to contend with through around sunset, though overall gusts appear to be peaking now in the 25 to 29 knot range. RH values have dropped deep into the 20-25% range, and SPS statements for fire weather will continue through dusk. Temperature-wise, kept the last update intact as SYR is on the cusp of 70, and ELM not far behind. It'll be cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper-40s and lower-50s across CNY, with 50s over much of NEPA, but near 60 in the Wyoming Valley. A cooler airmass, coupled with ideal conditions for radiational cooling Wed night will drop lows into the lower to middle 20s area-wide. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 330 AM update... A quiet period is in store as the upper level trough slowly begins to lift out of our region Wednesday night with high pressure building in at the surface. As a result clear skies and light winds will embrace the region Wednesday night. Cooler air mass remains in place with lows falling into the mid 20s to low 30s with the help of radiational cooling. Similar pattern continues into Thursday with quiet and cool conditions expected under northerly flow. Highs are expected to climb into the 50s Thursday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Another cool and clear night is expected Thursday with lows ranging in the low to mid 30s across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 AM update... Large scale upper level ridging moves in on Friday with quiet and dry conditions expected to continue. Southerly flow returns with temperatures beginning to climb back into the 60s once again. Meanwhile a deep low pressure system moves into the upper midwest Friday night into Saturday morning with a warm front expanding from the Great Lakes through the Carolinas. We begin to see the impacts of this system early Saturday morning with the increasing chance of rain showers over our region. Behind this front a warming trend establishes especially on Sunday with temperatures expected to soar into the low to mid 70s. This warm and unstable air mass may kick off some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overall the upper level ridge continues to reign during this period with a few disturbances moving through from Sunday into Monday. Pattern begins to break sometime Tuesday with an upper trough pushes back in. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions with increasing high clouds are expected through the afternoon hours. Mid-clouds and a few showers will try to sneak into western terminals around or shortly after 00Z, but restrictions are not expected until after 06Z. MVFR ceilings will prevail for most of the late night hours, slipping into fuel alternate around dawn as NW flow moves in. BGM and ITH have a good chance of seeing at least brief IFR ceilings Tue morning. South to SSW winds will remain gusty for the next few hours, generally peaking 25 to 28 knots, though the odd 30 knot gust can't be ruled out. Winds will diminish quickly after sunset. Outlook... Wednesday thru Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...MPH SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...AJG/MPH ####018006415#### FXUS61 KCTP 231849 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 249 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Breezy & warmer with low humidity for the rest of today -Periods of rain showers tonight through Wednesday afternoon (mainly across the NW Mtns tonight) -Rain-free late this week with a renewed frost/freeze risk early Thursday and Friday mornings && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High clouds will thicken up from the west late this afternoon and cloud bases will lower headed through this evening with rain showers following for the overnight hours. PWAT values are 0.8 of an inch or less which will support rainfall amounts generally less than one tenth of an inch across the SE half of the CWA through 12Z Wed, with 1-2 tenths acrs the NW half of the region and mainly before 08Z Wed. Prior to the showers, low humidity and breezy conditions (wind gusts 20-30 mph from the south/southwest), will occur for the rest of the daylight hours. The gusty wind+low RH combo does raise some fire wx concerns (see fire wx section, SPS and HWOCTP for details). Temps are closing in on their forecast highs of the low to mid 60s across the higher terrain of the north and west and around 70F in the Central and Southern Valleys. Low temps tonight in the low 40s/50s are +10-15 degrees warmer than the last two nights (no frost) thanks to an active southwest to westerly breeze along with clouds/rain showers. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The main upper level shortwave trough swings through the area early Wednesday, followed by a secondary cold frontal passage during the afternoon leading the way for a pool of slightly anomalously cold air aloft (about -25C at 500 mb or about -1 sigma). Latest hires model guidance shows scattered low-topped diurnal convective showers developing during the late morning (Mainly over the NW Mtns) and through the afternoon across the Central and SE zones with the potential to produce locally gusty winds. SPC continues to indicate non- severe t-storm probs over the southeastern portion of the CWA for Day 2 where HREF shows a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Highs on Wednesday will trend cooler and range from the upper 40s in the northern tier to mid 60s in the southeast. Expect rain shower activity to fade quickly toward sunset/into early Wednesday night or shortly after 00Z Thu. 1030+mb Canadian high pressure building over the region Wednesday night below normal pwats will bring dry wx/rain free conditions into late week. The main focus will return to potential for frost/freeze conditions which remain highlighted in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A chilly but tranquil start to the extended period Thursday morning with widespread freeze/frosts expected from sprawling Canadian sfc high pressure. Plenty of sunshine is expected throughout the day to help rebound temps through the 50s to lower 60s. The sfc high drifts off of the eastern seaboard by Friday morning, with another chilly night expected (especially over eastern areas) as moderating return flow begins Friday morning. As a result, milder temps are expected by Friday afternoon along with a gradual increase in mid to high clouds, leading to the next chance of rain Friday night into Saturday. The weekend appears somewhat unsettled with the warm sector struggling to overspread central PA. It won't be raining all the time, but a shower cannot be ruled out from the Friday night through Sunday afternoon period. Upper ridging may eventually win out by Sunday night and Monday for drier and warmer conditions during that time, and highs could surge through the 70s and perhaps exceed 80F over the south on Monday afternoon. Both the EPS and GEFS indicate the warm front will lift north of the region by Sunday and Monday, resulting in markedly warmer and more humid conditions with scattered PM convection possible. Mean progged 850mb temps south of the warm front are around 12C, supportive of highs in the 75-80F range. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions will persist throughout the rest of the daylight hours today with mainly a thin layer of bkn high clouds expected to be present over the airspace. Winds will be gusty out of the SW through late this afternoon, ahead of a cold front. Gusts between 20 to 25kts will occur. Cloud bases lowering through the mid levels across the Wrn Mtns of PA (and down to 8-12 kft agl after 19Z) will be followed by light starting across the NW Mtns late this afternoon near 21-23Z and slowly break up into a more scattered variety as they progress across the area late tonight through Wednesday. At this time, model soundings and the bulk of guidance suggests all airfields to stay above VFR thresholds. If any airfields do manage to drop towards high- end MVFR cigs, KBFD will be the most likely after 22Z within a period of more numerous showers/stratiform steady rain. Highest confidence in MVFR cigs will be after 06Z Wednesday behind the passage of the cold front and in conjunction with scattered showers remaining over central PA. Outlook... Wed...-SHRA early with some MVFR cigs possible, Cloudy PM with lingering showers and periods of MVFR Cigs and Vsbys. Thu...Clearing as high pressure builds into the area. Fri...Mainly dry, but increasing clouds late. Sat...Rain moves in W early AM and continues throughout the day with restrictions possible. TSRA possible W PA in PM hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low humidity (20-30% minRH) and breezy conditions (20-30 mph wind gusts from the south/southwest) will result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread late this afternoon. However, dead fuel moisture values per latest PABOF/DCNR sitrep and ongoing Spring green-up are both limiting factors offsetting the wind+RH fire wx risk to a large extent in CPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald AVIATION...Lambert FIRE WEATHER...Lambert