####018007627#### FXUS61 KBUF 060645 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 145 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold pattern through this weekend and into the first few days of next week will support several weak storm system that will bring light day-to-day snowfall amounts. A cold front today will focus snow northeast of the Lakes, with a wave along this front tomorrow bringing widespread light snow region-wide, especially Sunday afternoon and into the early overnight hours. A cold, but dry day Monday will lead into another wave of low pressure that will bring snow to our region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cloudy skies this morning ahead of an upstream cold front that is found over the Central Great Lakes this early morning and will be bearing down upon our region today. A fair amount of wind shear and marginal temperatures aloft will bring weak lake enhanced snow showers northeast of the Lakes through the mid to late morning hours, with these snowbands becoming better defined briefly as a ribbon of low level moisture ahead of the front pushes across our region. Outside this ribbon of deeper moisture dry air through the snow dentrictic growth zone may allow for spotty freezing drizzle for SW NYS. This increase in moisture will bring a brief uptick in moderate snowfall before winds veer to more westerly behind the front later this afternoon and evening. A longer duration of the snowbands over the Tug Hill as flow extends across the entire fetch of Lake Ontario will bring upwards to 2-3 inches on the Tug Hill. Otherwise snowfall amounts will range to an inch or two in most persistent bands. Gusty winds into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon with the frontal passage, with strongest gusts near the Lakes and this will lead to some blowing of the snow where a decent fresh snowfall occurs. Considerable wind shear behind the front, combined with moisture largely found below the snow dendritic growth zone will bring just scattered snow flurries and light snow showers southeast of the Lakes for the remainder of the night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday a surface wave on the recently passed cold front will pass over our region from the Ohio Valley with a shortwave trough aloft bringing additional moisture and lift. Ascent ahead of this shortwave, combined with low level convergent lift within the surface trough will bring a period of snow to our region, mainly from Sunday afternoon through the early overnight hours. The progressive flow will keep snow amounts in check, with most areas remaining just below advisory levels with this system. A very cold period is on tap for Monday - Monday night with surface ridging passing through. A cold day Monday (highs only in the teens to lower 20s) will promote a cold evening as temperatures nose dive down into the single digits (and well below zero east of Lake Ontario). As the surface high advances eastward through the night a return flow will allow for some moderation in temperature from west to east. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An active northern branch of the jet stream this period with a series of shortwave troughs progressively deepening a long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will maintain precipitation chances (mainly snow) each day through this period. A surface low Wednesday will pass just to our west and north, with a strong LLJ of 60 knots and southerly flow warming the boundary layer sufficiently for plain rain Wednesday for the lower elevations before a cold front passes through Wednesday night with gusty winds and a return to snow. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clouds across the area this morning are from two different systems. Clouds across the Southern Tier are the result of a southern stream system tracking off the coast of the mid-Atlantic. Clouds over the lakes, Niagara Frontier and the North Country are from an approaching cold front and trough. Clouds over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes will thin out and break up some this morning as the southern stream system tracks out to sea. Clouds will then slowly fill in from the west, while also lowering in height. Flight cats early this morning will remain mostly VFR, though some CIGs across the higher terrain are at MVFR and even IFR at times. Today, CIGs that were at VFR early in the morning will slowly lower to MVFR by around daybreak for the far western NY and the North Country. CIGs will continue to lower from west to east through the morning to widespread MVFR and periods of IFR as lake effect clouds and snow develops northeast and then east of the lakes. Snow off of the lakes today should remain mostly on the light side, but reductions to VSBYs at times will be possible, down to IFR. Gusty southwest winds to around 25 knots will be possible this afternoon. Tonight, mainly MVFR CIGs, with higher terrain IFR CIGs expected. Lake effect snow will continue into the first half of the overnight, with reductions to VSBY to IFR at times. Lake snow mainly east of Lake Ontario will drop southeast of the lake through the evening and snow off of Lake Erie is expected to remain southeast of the lake. Early lake cloud regime will transition to more overcast as clouds increase ahead of an incoming surface low. Widespread light snow will start to move into far western NY near daybreak on Sunday morning. Outlook... Sunday...Widespread snow showers with IFR/MVFR conditions. Monday...Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with localized MVFR possible. Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers, breezy. && .MARINE... A cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening. Winds will increase ahead of the front with southwest flow bringing waves over 4 feet on the Lakes, and winds 15 to 20 knots on the Upper Niagara River. Winds will veer to west and then northwest behind the front, and diminish through the night below small craft thresholds. A weak surface low will pass across NYS Sunday, with southwest flow on Lake Erie, but north of the low, an easterly flow over Lake Ontario. Winds will become northwesterly Sunday night behind the front, possibly producing brief small craft conditions on the lakes. Looking a bit further out two shortwave troughs will pass over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stronger and lower LLJ Wednesday. Southwest flow may reach gale force on the Lower Great Lakes, especially Lake Erie...with Wednesday the better time period for these stronger winds. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042-045. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Thomas SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...SW MARINE...Thomas ####018009932#### FXUS61 KAKQ 060650 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 150 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Primarily dry conditions are expected from this weekend through the middle of next week. Cool weather continues into next week. Shower chances increase along a ahead of the next cold front by late week && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 700 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - A Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include much of the area along and west of the I-85, 95, and US-360 corridors due to the potential for freezing drizzle, fog, and refreeze tonight. - Patchy fog is possible through tonight. Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory after taking a look at surface temperatures and model soundings. Freezing drizzle will stick with us through the first half of the night across central VA and the Piedmont before transitioning to fog/freezing fog later in the night/early Saturday AM. With temperatures falling below freezing, freezing fog and refreeze of melted slush is expected. Black ice is possible on untreated surfaces as we head through tonight into Saturday AM. The advisory now includes all of the RIC metro and is in effect for areas along and west of the I-85, 95, and US-360 corridors until 8 AM. There is the possibility that Brunswick, Greensville, and Sussex counties may need to be added to the advisory as well. Previous Discussion: Afternoon surface analysis depicted a weak area of low pressure offshore and a surface high over eastern portions of the Mid- Atlantic. Drier air has moved in aloft, allowing for most of the snow to end this afternoon. However, a bit higher moisture along with enough isentropic ascent closer to the low across SE VA/NE NC has allowed for scattered light showers to continue across SE VA/NE NC. As the low moves farther offshore this afternoon into tonight, rain is expected to taper off from W to E. However, forecast soundings continue to support patchy fog across the area with drizzle possible as well through tonight. The NAM shows the best potential for light freezing drizzle across the northern Piedmont where temps remain below freezing overnight. As such, have kept the Winter Weather Advisories in effect for this area through 1 AM tonight. This may need to be extend (temporally), however, will let the evening and overnight shifts monitor radar trends this evening before extending. Additionally, freezing fog cannot be ruled out across the Piedmont as well, however, confidence is low. Elsewhere, Winter Weather Advisories have ended given that accumulating snow has ended. Temps as of 125 PM ranged from the lower 30s NW to the mid 40s SE with most in the 30s. Have blended hi-res guidance and HREF with the NBM for overnight temps given that the NBM appears to be far too cold. The widespread low-level cloud cover should keep temps fairly steady overnight, with lows struggling to drop below freezing east of I-95 and in the upper 20s to lower 30s west of I-95. The coolest location looks to be the far NW Piedmont where lows in the mid-upper 20s are possible. Given that temps don't cool significantly overnight, a hard refreeze is unlikely east of I-95. However, any slush may refreeze west of I-95 (potentially to around the I-95 corridor) given colder temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Freezing fog is possible Saturday night across inland areas. - Scattered rain or snow showers are possible on Monday. - Very cold Monday night with lows in the mid-upper teens inland and 20s closer to the coast. A shortwave continues to move through the area on Sat, allowing for widespread cloud cover to persist through the day. Highs are expected to remain in the 40s area-wide. Given the cloud cover, highs may end up cooler than the NBM, particularly across S portions of the FA (low-mid 40s as opposed to upper 40s). Additionally, patch fog may linger into mid-late morning on Sat. High pressure builds into the area on Sat night, allowing for clearing skies and cold temps with lows in the mid-upper 20s inland (mid 30s along the coast). Given high pressure overhead, clear skies, and calm winds, a favorable radiational cooling setup is expected. Forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) show a sharp temp inversion across the area with saturation in the very lowest levels of the sounding. This would support widespread fog with the potential for locally dense fog (if soundings verify). However, with surface temps potentially in the mid- upper 20s inland, this could result in freezing fog with the potential to cause slick spots due to black ice on bridges and overpasses. While not explicitly forecast yet (given the rarity of freezing fog and that we are still more than 24 hours before any potential freezing fog develops) this is concerning. As such, we will continue to closely monitor forecast trends and add fog (or freezing fog) to the grids if models continue to support this potential tomorrow. Outside of the fog/freezing fog potential Sat night, dry weather is expected to continue through Sun with highs in the mid 40s N to lower 50s S Sun. A cold airmass moves into the area on Mon as a strong area of high pressure builds in from the Midwest and Great Lakes. Highs Mon in the mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE are expected (most in the 30s). Confidence remains low in scattered rain or snow showers Mon across the area as a shortwave moves through the area while a weak surface low slides offshore. Nevertheless, there is a 15-35% chance for scattered rain/snow showers. Any precip moves offshore Mon evening with a very cold night expected Mon night. Lows Mon night in the mid-upper teens inland and upper 20s to around 30F across far SE VA/NE NC near and along the coast area expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 PM EST Friday... - Moderating temperatures are expected through midweek with mainly dry conditions continuing. Moderating temps are expected through midweek with highs in the upper 30s to around 40F N to the mid 40s SE Tue, upper 40s NW to mid 50s SE Wed and Thu, and mid 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE Fri. Mainly dry weather is expected through midweek outside of a slight chance for rain Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 120 AM EST Saturday... Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to continue into late Saturday morning and perhaps early Saturday afternoon. SBY may be the exception with some drier air moving into the area from the N. Will go with prevailing VFR with MVFR and eventually IFR moving back in towards 12z. LIFR CIGs are the main cause of flight restrictions but occasional IFR visibility is possible, especially at ECG. Radar shows some light returns but these have mostly been confined to areas with above freezing temps across the SE terminals. Some light freezing drizzle or freezing fog is possible in the Piedmont, perhaps sneaking into RIC. Light and variable winds early this morning become W around 5 kt this afternoon. CIGs improve to MVFR this afternoon with VFR likely by 00z this evening. Outlook: Another round of patchy fog/freezing fog is possible Saturday night into Sunday which may result in reduced VIS if it materializes. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions return Sunday into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 150 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions over the weekend, with another round of SCAs likely on Monday. Latest analysis reveals sfc cold front well south of the local waters, with low pressure quickly exiting farther offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. To the west, 1020+mb sfc high pressure over the west-central Gulf coast continues to slowly build NE this morning. Winds were generally 10-15 kt as of this writing, w/ waves ~2ft and seas 2-4 ft, except ~4-5 ft south of the VA/NC border. SCA remains in effect over the far southern coastal zone until 4 am, with mainly benign boating conditions thereafter through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure slides in from the west this afternoon and this evening. Winds will back to the W and remain ~10kt today, becoming light and variable tonight and tomorrow, as previously referenced high pressure centers overhead late tonight, sliding offshore late Sunday. Waves diminish to 1-2 ft, seas 2-4 ft, subsiding to 2-3 ft on Sunday. A strong, though mainly dry cold front drops across the area on Monday. SCA conditions are likely, with the potential for at least some brief gale force wind gusts Monday morning. In-house wind probs have diminished to no more than 30-40 % probability for wind gusts >= 34kt Monday morning, and 10-20% in the Bay, and will therefore cap winds at strong SCA for now. After a brief secondary CAA surge Monday evening, winds diminish once again Tuesday morning, as high pressure rebuilds over the region Tue/Tue night. However, winds increase once again for Wed, as a warm front lifts across the region, ahead of another cold front that approaches for late next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075-076-080>083-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RHR MARINE...MAM