####018005066#### FXUS62 KRAH 060650 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will hold to our southeast through the weekend, as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 150 AM Saturday... * Winter Weather Advisory for our NW continues until 8 AM this morning for the potential for isolated slippery spots on roads. * Areas of fog will persist until mid to late morning. * Continued chilly today. The surface frontal zone has settled to our S and SE, with low pressure having pushed well offshore E of NC, leaving weak high pressure from NC up through the Mid Atlantic and widespread low clouds with patchy fog. Another weak high analyzed over the lower Miss Valley will slide E over the Southeast later today, and the overall result will be continued neutral to stable low levels and weak low level flow over our area. Farther aloft, we'll stay in a fast and flat WSW mid level flow pattern today, noted well on GOES layer WV imagery with a plume of moisture from TX through NC, keeping a stream of mid and high clouds overhead through the day. The poor insolation from these high clouds and the presence of low level stability and weak flow (to inhibit mixing, both vertically and horizontally) will help hold in the low clouds for quite a while today, at least through early to mid afternoon before some breaks of milky sunshine appear. Models do agree that the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak will pass over NC late today and bring a brief uptick in upper divergence, so we could see the back edge of light rain nudge slightly northward late today. But otherwise the moisture and lift aren't sufficient today for anything more than patchy light rain with low amounts in our extreme SE, southeast of a line from Wadesboro to Goldsboro, mainly this afternoon. Thicknesses 10-15 m below normal and limited sunshine support highs only in the mid 40s to near 50. Expect lows tonight in the mid 20s to low 30s with skies partly to mostly cloudy and a good chance of another round of locally dense fog late. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday... To be updated shortly. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Friday. . . -Chilly, below average temperatures expected Sun-Tues. -Precip chances increase overnight Sunday into Monday. -Dry weather expected Tuesday through late week. High pressure will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday, allowing a weak front to move across the region late Sunday night into Monday. Moisture will be limited, but a few light showers are possible. With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as precip arrives, a brief rain/snow mix is possible across the northern Piedmont, potentially edging slightly farther south Monday morning as colder, drier air begins to filter in behind the front. Precipitation will taper off Monday evening, followed by a stronger push of cool, dry air Monday night. Lows will fall into the upper teens to lower 20s by early Tuesday. High pressure then dominates Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing dry conditions with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the 20s Tuesday and mainly 30s Wednesday. A clipper system will track across the Great Lakes Wednesday and exit off the New England coast Thursday. At this time, associated precip is expected to remain north of central NC, keeping the area dry through late week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 AM SATURDAY... Low clouds have settled in with ceilings below 500ft and LIFR across all of central NC. These conditions will continue through mid-morning, with some dense fog possible as well by 09Z, although confidence in fog is a little low given the amount of high clouds streaming overhead per satellite imagery. Have kept a TEMPO for lowering vsbys in the 09-13Z time frame. Models then suggest some slow lifting and scattering through the afternoon hours, though with no airmass change, would not be surprised if sub-VFR continues in the afternoon. Fog and low clouds look pretty likely again tonight, perhaps settling in as early as 04Z and continuing through Sunday morning. Outlook: A short-wave will induce light precipitation (likely mostly rain, but perhaps a chance for some winter weather across the north) on Monday. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST today for NCZ007>009- 021>025. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...BLS ####018005605#### FXUS64 KOUN 060650 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1246 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Areas of dense fog are likely and freezing fog is possible through Saturday morning, mainly along and east of the I-44 corridor. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM Saturday. - Areas of dense fog may return again Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front. - Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before dry and seasonable weather into next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1246 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Areas of dense fog are expected to develop this morning with the highest confidence east of the I-44 corridor. Patchy fog, some dense, will also be possible west and north of I-44 with lower confidence. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM Saturday across portions of central Oklahoma with visibility of a quarter mile or less probable. Generally where the dense fog is expected, temperatures will hover at or above freezing. However, there is a chance for some freezing fog to develop through the early morning hours near the I-44 corridor with some slick roadways possible. A majority of the fog will begin to dissipate through mid-morning, however there is a potential for pockets of dense fog to linger through the early afternoon hours across southeast Oklahoma. Mostly clear skies and breezy southerly winds across western Oklahoma and western north Texas will bring WAA and near-normal temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler across central and southeast Oklahoma (mid-50s) as the fog slowly clears out today. A few models suggest the low clouds linger through the entire day which could limit heating through the afternoon hours and result in cooler high temperatures, potentially not even warming out of the 40s. Thus, high temperatures today have been lowered from the NBM to account for this increasing potential. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1246 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Models are trending towards a return of fog across southeast Oklahoma after midnight, but the dry cold front will sweep southward and erode any fog development by around sunrise which is when the front will be completely through the state of Oklahoma. There will be a slight delay in the colder air with fairly mild temperatures for this time of year by Sunday morning. However some breezy north post-frontal winds could make for a brisk morning. As the front continues to push southward into central Texas Sunday, breezy north winds will continue with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph possible. Temperatures will be nearly 5-10 degrees colder than Saturday making for a chilly end to the weekend. The surface high will continue dig southward into Oklahoma Sunday night with widespread below freezing temperatures. Drier air behind the front should also mitigate any fog development. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1246 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Cooler temperatures will linger into Monday before a warming trend the remainder of the week with above seasonable temperatures. A brief weak backdoor cold front will move through Wednesday, but most of the colder airmass will keep northeast of the forecast area as the upper jet associated with the system slides across the Central Plains and into the Ohio Valley, taking much of the colder air with it. In the wake of that shortwave will be a stronger longwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft that will dig much colder air into the CONUS. Ensemble spread of temperatures increases for Friday highs with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to upper 40s. Cluster analysis is about a 50/50 split towards the 25th and 75th percentile temperatures. These temperature spreads will continue to be monitored through the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 Some areas of fog have begun to develop across the south and southeast but the models are delaying the development of the dense fog and associated LIFR conditions until after 08Z-09Z and then toward the I-44 corridor until around sunrise. The moist layer is also very shallow and this may lead to a quick dissipation of the fog in the mid/late morning time frame, with VFR conditions returning. Winds will be light overnight and through the morning before increasing with deeper mixing by afternoon, especially across the west. A cold front will northwest Oklahoma late in the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 51 35 43 23 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 56 34 49 22 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 58 38 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 58 29 45 22 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 54 31 42 21 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 55 41 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ008-013- 019-020-023>032-037>048-050>052. TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ086-089- 090. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...30 ####018007747#### FXUS61 KALY 060653 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 153 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weekend will open on a mainly dry day with partly to to mostly cloudy conditions due a weak warm front moving north of the region through the day bringing a few snow showers over the western Adirondacks. A clipper-like low will increase clouds on Sunday and bring some light snow to the region in the late afternoon into early Monday morning. Another surge of frigid air will impact the region Monday into Tuesday with well below normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Clipper-like low will bring a period of accumulating snow late Sun pm through Sun night. NBM probabilities for seeing > 1" or more of snow are 40-60% for the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Lake George Region and southern VT. Discussion: As of 153 AM EST...Low pressure continues to move east of the Mid Atlantic States this morning, as a trough of low pressure is moving across southeastern Canada and Hudson Bay. In the southwest flow, a short-wave is moving through the Great Lakes Region. A warm front to the system near Hudson Bay will move through in the morning and this short-wave and a cold front will bring a few light snow showers tapping Great Lakes moisture in the afternoon into the evening with accums of a coating to less than an inch for the western Dacks. A few flurries or snow showers due to the system passing well south of Long Island may impact NW CT and the I-84 corridor shortly before or just after daybreak with little or no accumulation. The skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with max temps below normal, but not as cold as yesterday. Max temps were accepted by the NBM with mid/upper 30s in the lower elevations and upper 20s to lower/mid 30s over the hills and mtns. The weak cold front moves through tonight with only weak cold advection and a wind shift to the west/northwest, as lows fall back into the teens and lower 20s. High pressure briefly builds in early on Sunday from southern Quebec, but the mid and upper level flow will remain west/southwest aloft ahead of a clipper-like low approaching from the Great Lakes Region. Clouds will thicken and lower into the afternoon with low to mid level warm advection increasing ahead of the low. The track continues to be further north than the ensembles and deterministic guidance showed 24 hrs ago, but light snow will still develop over the southern Dacks late in the pm and extend into Sunday night. The synoptic forcing remains the strongest over the northern zones in the night-time period. Light snow should overspread most of the region and the greatest risk for an inch or greater of snowfall will be over the western Mohawk Valley, western Dacks and southern Greens. Accumulations of a coating to less than an inch may occur over the eastern Catskills, Greater Capital Region, Berkshires, the north-central Taconics and the Lake George Saratoga Region. The NBM probs are greatest for >1" of snow over the western Dacks and the western Mohawk Valley and southern VT for the 24-hr period ending 7 am Mon. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s over the forecast area. The snow should taper to flurries before daybreak with lows in the single digits and teens. It will be come breezy towards daybreak with west to northwest winds of 5-15 mph. In the wake of the system, another surge of arctic air will moves across the region with below normal temps by 15-20 degrees. H850 temps will run -1 to -2 STDEVs below normal according to NAEFS. Highs will be in the upper teens to mid 20s in the major valleys and single digits to teens over the higher terrain. Brisk northwest winds 10-20 mph will generate wind chills/"feels-like temps" during the daytime hours in the single digits and teens and slightly colder values over the highest terrain. High pressure builds in Mon night briefly with initially mostly clear skies and light to calm winds with lows falling zero to 5 below over the Adirondack Park and southern Greens and single digits over the rest of the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended portion of the forecast remains very unsettled with multiple northern stream disturbances impacting the region through the mid week. Clouds increase quickly on Tue with the sfc anticyclone moving off the New England Coast. The short-wave and clipper-low will bring another round of light snow in the late afternoon through Tue night. The best chance of a couple inches of snow will be north and west of the Capital Region. Highs on Tue will only be in the 20s. That system departs Tue night, but another system will be digging in over the Great Lakes Region and Midwest for Wed-Thu. The mid and upper level flow amplifies over the East Coast. The track of the Wed-Thu system may pass along or near the eastern Great Lakes Region and the St Lawrence River Valley well to the west of the region. Initially some snow may develop due to wet bulb cooling, but the track may favor a snow to rain/snow transition in some of the valley or eastern areas of the forecast area. The timing of this system varies a little in the ensembles and medium range guidance. Highs may get closer to normal readings for the valley areas in the mid 30s to around 40F and upper 20s to lower/mid 30s over the higher terrain. Light to moderate snow accums may occur from the Capital Region north and west before a transition to rain. The wave passing to north and east Wed night into Thu with the cold front moving through. Lows fall back into the 20s with some teens over the Adirondack Park. Highs on Thu will still run about 5-10 degrees below normal. Yet another system will move northeast from the Ohio Valley early Thu night towards the Northeast Thu night-Fri. This system may bring a period of snow or mixed pcpn of rain/snow Thu night into Fri with temps running below normal. However, a lot of uncertainty continues in the medium range guidance and ensembles on the track and evolution of this storm. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z Sunday...A passing disturbance and weak southerly flow will keep low clouds in place at the terminals to start the period. MVFR conditions are primarily expected, though a brief period of IFR conditions will be possible in the vicinity of KPSF. In addition to the clouds, a brief period of light snow will accompany the system, and will mainly impact KPOU. This potential continues to be addressed with a TEMPO group. Any snow that accumulates will be a dusting to a few tenths. Conditions will improve back to VFR for all terminals once the system departs by midday, and will remain this way through the remainder of the period. Winds will be light and variable with sustained speeds remaining under 10 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN...SN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...15 SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...17