####018003815#### FXUS64 KCRP 082315 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 515 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 514 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Warming trend through the week ahead of the next cold front. - Dense morning fog possible by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1219 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a warming trend can be expected across the region through the end of the week ahead of the next cold front. Timing and strength of the next cold front is uncertain due to differences in the models. The models have backed off on timing and strength from previous runs. The GFS is the fastest and strongest with a FROPA Saturday night into Sunday. The ECMWF shows a weak front on Saturday that does not quite make it through S TX and the Canadian shows a FROPA by Monday. This is probably due to the upper flow steering the front more southeastward rather than southward. One thing the models do agree on is that they show a strong surface high pressure around 1040mb and very cold negative temperatures over Canada and into the northern CONUS by Thursday. Typically the models do not handle strong shallow cold fronts very well. Sometimes these type of strong fronts have enough momentum to slide south and blast through S TX despite the upper flow. Will continue to monitor trends and will likely see changes to the weekend forecast as new data becomes available. At this time, rain chances look low (10%-20%) and up to 30% across the coastal waters beginning Friday. A south to southeast flow returns by Tuesday, which will usher higher dewpoints into S TX. With generally dry air aloft and light winds, fog and dense fog will be possible beginning Wednesday morning. The SREF shows up to a 40-50% chance of visibilities less than 1 mile along the interior Coastal Plains. Areas of sea fog are also possible by mid week due to sea surface temps being in the mid 60s along the coast. But it will depend on just high the dewpoints get over the waters as to whether or not sea fog develops. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle at area terminals under a light and variable wind. && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A fresh (BF 5) north to northeast flow across the coastal waters will decrease to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze through this afternoon, and then a gentle breeze tonight. Northeasterly winds will gradually shift southeast to south by Tuesday, becoming gentle to moderate once again. Another cold front is expected by the weekend along with a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1219 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will dip below 30% daily through mid week, mainly across the Brush Country. However, due to low ERC and generally weak to moderate winds, confidence is low for any elevated fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 42 69 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 35 69 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 42 71 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 38 71 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 47 66 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 38 71 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 39 71 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 52 67 60 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...ANM/88 ####018005489#### FXUS63 KDVN 082315 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 515 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active storm track through the period will bring chances for precip to the area through the week. - Freezing rain possible during evening commute on Tuesday, especially across northwest Illinois and extreme eastern Iowa. - Snow showers are expected Wednesday along with additional chances for light snow most days this week. Some guidance has an advisory level snow event Friday morning across the region. - Temperatures will drop for the weekend with wind chills well below zero Friday and Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Active weather continues through the short term period as two clippers move through the area. The first clipper moves through the area late tonight affecting the northeast CWA. The second clipper moves through tomorrow afternoon affecting the same area. West of this area, a strong front will push through the area. While the cold front will bring cooler temperatures, they will not be as a cool as this past weekend. The front will result in strong winds overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Questions surrounding whether or not this wind will break the top of the snowpack and result in blowing snow, remains to be seen but can't be ruled out. Tonight, consensus in the guidance is to bring the wave across Wisconsin. Forcing for ascent is limited to our far NE, as such some pops have been maintained across the area. There remains a chance for precip in the form of snow overnight. Little to no QPF suggest no accumulation with this first wave. Tomorrow, guidance is struggling with the warm advection ahead of the next wave. The NBM, is way too high, to the point where it is affecting the blend of the guidance is a negative way towards higher temps. Most raw models have much cooler temps, and with snow cover, cloud cover and short solar insolation, I have to think that we will not see temps into the 40s. This is further supported by Tds barely making it to freezing through the day and into the evening. This means, no real melt and actually a decent setup for freezing rain across our NE for the evening commute. Model soundings have no ice nucleation, so any precip will fall as liquid. Later in the period as we cool, ice is introduced so snow will eventually start to move in. Surface temps will drive the freezing rain potential, and I think that the snowpack will win as far as temps go. So, areas east of a line from Manchester IA, to Clinton IA, to Sterling, IL will likely see freezing rain during the evening commute. Untreated surfaces could become slick. Overnight Tds warm above freezing changing the freezing rain to rain before the main forcing pulls out. Could need a winter weather advisory for this area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night, strong signal for wind advisory level gusts and winds. The CAA behind this system will result in strong winds. Will hold off on an advisory at this time as surrounding neighbors are concerned about a ground blizzard setup. We have about 30 hours to nail that risk down and I think that we will need that time to do that. CAMs have high wind warning gusts, especially across central Iowa. As we nail down the ground blizzard potential, believe this will lend some clarity to other potential advisories going forward. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 After this, strong cyclonic flow into Wednesday looks likely. Long range CAMs depict robust snow showers in the late morning to afternoon. This does look like a good setup for impactful snow showers. Looking at a snow squall potential, instability looks to be the main lacking factor. However, I don't think we can rule out that potential as well. These showers will likely lead to snow on roadways as temps fall throughout the day. After this, another clipper is possible Thursday into Friday before the real arctic airmass arrives for the weekend. Differences in mass fields exist later in the week. The ECM, which seems to be the first to show systems, has an advisory level snow event for Friday morning. Other's do not, so much to iron out after our Tuesday/Wednesday event. What does seem certain is our cold air for the weekend. Expect another cold dump on Friday. Question at this time is whether or not we see any snow showers again with this front. Winter is here and we are active! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 513 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Increasing south/southwest flow will bring another prolonged period of MVFR to upper end IFR cigs to the area starting later this evening, as a storm system moves to the north of Iowa. This mild air aloft will likely create an inversion, trapping the stratus over the snow cover in Iowa and Illinois much of the entire day Tuesday. Thus, an extended period of MVFR cigs is anticipated at all sites, with the lowest cigs, around 1500 ft found over northeast Iowa tonight and Tuesday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Ervin ####018004960#### FXUS62 KTAE 082315 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 615 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 610 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Ochlockonee River through early tonight. - The work week will feature little or no rain after this morning, along with seasonable temperatures. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 231 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Now post-frontal we'll see cool and dry conditions over the next couple days as northerly flow prevails. Wednesday morning the flow turns southerly briefly as another cold front looks to approach the region. However, dew points struggle to recover into the mid 50s, confined mostly to our FL Coastal counties. Thus not much is expected out of this frontal feature as it moves through late Wednesday into Thursday morning, maybe a stray shower or two. Behind this front, heading into this weekend, we'll see surface high pressure prevail across the region with dry north to northeasterly flow. Fairly benign conditions expected overall. A couple chilly mornings are in store tonight and tomorrow night with lows generally in the low to mid 30s with a few isolated areas hitting the upper 20s. Patchy to widespread frost will be possible with the best coverage expected to be tomorrow night as winds go calm and skies clear out. Make sure that people, pets, pipes and plants are secured over the next couple nights. A slight warm up is expected for the overnight low temps after Wednesday as temps climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s thru Sunday morning. Daytime high temps will be a bit more stable with daytime highs being coolest tomorrow with widespread mid to upper 50s. Wednesday through Sunday will see a gradual warm up to daytime high temps generally being in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 MVFR stratus continues moving south towards the Gulf coast while on a slow dissipating trend. TAFs will begin with cigs around 025 with gradually improvement to VFR by 03-04Z. Overnight, indications of MVFR stratus rebuilding in from the east, affecting ABY and VLD from 09-10Z through 16-17Z. DHN and TLH may just be far enough west to remain VFR. Once that area of stratus dissipates, VFR at all terminals is expected. Winds will begin northerly this evening and gradually turn northeasterly by the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 A cold frontal passage today clocks winds around from the north. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through early tonight for winds around 20 knots. A gradual return to more tranquil boating conditions on Tuesday which should last through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Transport winds become weak and easterly on Tuesday leading to low dispersions across most of the region, then become brisk and southwesterly on Wednesday leading to good dispersions again. A moist air mass remains in place today before drier air moves in for midweek with minimum afternoon RHs in the 40s for portions of the area. Outside then the low dispersions Tuesday afternoon, there are currently no other fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 231 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Widespread 2-4 inch amounts with pockets of 4-6 inch amounts in the Eastern FL Panhandle have amounted to some improvement in regional drought conditions. Additional rainfall is not expected over the next week. For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit www.weather.gov/LocalDrought. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 37 58 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 38 58 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 32 54 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 33 54 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 36 56 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 39 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 41 57 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Oliver ####018004275#### FXUS64 KFWD 082315 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 515 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool weather will prevail through tomorrow with a warmup through Friday. - The next strong cold front is expected to arrive over the upcoming weekend which will send temperatures back below normal. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1213 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Another cool day is expected today across North and Central Texas as temperatures remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Unlike the previous couple of mornings, this morning featured clear skies and light northerly winds. As we progress through the rest of the day, expect the winds to gradually become southerly as the northern component of the elevated winds weakens and the surface high migrates eastward. Going into tonight, temperatures will not be as cold, however, a few sheltered locations may dip to freezing for a few hours. Most of the region will remain in the 34-38 range. Given slightly more moisture in the air, patchy frost is once again probable across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1213 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A warming trend will commence tomorrow as southerly winds and clear skies lead to afternoon temperatures in the 60s across the region. Going into Wednesday, a weak front will advance southward out of the Central Plains, moving into North Texas in the morning and Central Texas by the afternoon. With the delayed arrival of the front in Central Texas, afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 70s. The midweek front's impact will be short-lived as a surface low across the Texas Panhandle quickly turns our winds out of the south Thursday morning. Given the tightening pressure gradient, breezy southwesterly winds will develop in the afternoon with temperatures west of I-35 climbing into the lower 70s. Elsewhere, temperatures will remain in the 60s. Heading into the weekend, uncertainty begins to increase in the forecast as a strong cold front makes steady progress southward through the Plains. The latest ensemble guidance remains split on the depth of the cold air behind the front as it now favors a shallow cold front across much of the region with the elevated front stalling somewhere in North Texas. Given this uncertainty, the residence time of the cold air remains in question as we finish out this week. Additionally, the position of the elevated front will determine where/how strong isentropic ascent will be as a shortwave emerges from the west this weekend. If rain occurs, it would most likely be light in nature as "warm" and moist air rises above the shallow cool air. For now, the forecast will lean toward the mean of the ensembles suites with rain chances at or below 10% on Saturday. However, adjustments to both temperature and precipitation potential are likely as confidence in the front's position improves later in the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 458 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Light and variable winds have returned to a more prominent southerly direction as of 23z where they will remain through tomorrow. Speeds will be around 5 kts or less tonight, before increasing to 10-15 kts tomorrow afternoon. Mostly clear VFR skies will prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 37 65 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 34 66 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 32 60 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 32 66 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 33 64 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 37 65 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 33 64 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 36 65 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 33 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 33 70 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Stalley ####018011138#### FXUS65 KRIW 082316 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 416 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Persistent moderate snowfall is expected across the northwest WY mountains beginning tonight. Snow continues through Thursday, with greatest amounts (1 to 2 feet) across the Absarokas, Pitchstone Plateau, and near Togwotee Pass. - Strong to high wind is likely (greater than a 90% chance) across much of central and southern Wyoming late Monday night through Tuesday. Strongest winds (60 to 70+ mph) will be along the South Pass to Casper Corridor and along the Absarokas and Wind River Mountains Tuesday morning. - Temperatures will remain 10 to up to 20 degrees above normal across much of the region through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 205 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 There was not much change to the overall forecast with snowfall amounts and winds remaining generally on track. Regarding snowfall amounts, there was an uptick across the Tetons and also across the northern Bighorns with the latest forecast. Given that, have opted to hoist an Advisory for the Bighorns and have upgraded the Watch to a Warning for the Tetons. The combination of wind and snow will be the main concern for both locations, more so than amounts. This will be a long-duration event, with snow lingering well into Thursday (beyond the ending of the hazards), however, winds will decrease by Wednesday late afternoon, as will snowfall rates, hence keeping with the 5 PM Thursday timing for ending the highlights. The other Watch areas (Wind River Mountains and Salt/Wyoming Ranges) will likely see Warning amounts, but given the long-duration of the event (over 48 hours) and the limited travel concerns (no impacts to travel corridors) have opted for Advisories for those zones. Regarding wind, the only notable change from the previous forecast was to add a High Wind Warning for the upper Wind River Basin to include Dubois. This area favors west-northwest flow and as the jet moves through tonight, it is looking likely that they will see gusts around 50 to 60 mph, with locally stronger gusts possible. Notably, latest NAM model indicates a period of 70 to 80kts at 700mb Tuesday late morning into the early afternoon. Though not expecting that to fully mix to the surface, it is significant enough of a signal to warrant the Warning. Winds do not look to be as strong on Wednesday for that area, so have only kept the Warning through Tuesday afternoon, rather than Wednesday afternoon with the other High Wind highlights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Sometimes I think the weather is like a rubber band. Basically, you can have a long stretch of quiet weather, but each day builds up tension in the band. Eventually, it ends up snapping. And this is the case over the next few days. Much of November was very quiet and tranquil weather wise. And we are now in one of the more active periods we have had in a while. And a rather complex one, with most threats including wind and snow. In a bit of a change in format, we will hit each one of these individually followed by a general outlook of aspects of the forecast that are less impactful as well as the weather past Wednesday night. SNOW DISCUSSION...We continue to have some mainly light snow falling over the western mountains as I write this around 2 am. It is beginning to let up in the Tetons, so we will likely expire the advisory around 5 am. There should then be a lull in the snow for around 12 to 24 hours before the next round of snow moves in from north to south as a boundary sags southward and a potent 140 knot jet sags southward toward the area, enhancing upper level divergence. The highest confidence for heavy snow continue to be in the Absarokas where there will be some orographic enhancement to go along with the jet energy. Many locations here have greater than a 9 in 10 chance of a foot of new snow with some of the southern portions of the range having nearly a 1 in 2 chance of 2 feet or more. This, combined with some strong wind, looks to be the most impacted area. So, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning here starting tonight and continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Southern portions of Yellowstone Park also have a greater than 3 out of 5 chance of a foot of new snow, but lesser amounts elsewhere. As a result, we had more questions about a warning here, but with the strong wind we went ahead and issued and also to match up with our neighbors to the north. Northern portions of the Park will likely only see advisory amounts though. Further south there are more questions, as the dynamics are not as favorable here with the jet being further away. Nevertheless, a decent portion of the Tetons, Wind Rivers and Salt and Wyoming Range have at least a 1 in 2 chance of a foot of new snow. I'm not completely convinced yet though. Since the bulk of the snow here would not fall until at least Tuesday, we have elected to go with watches and let future shifts decide between warnings, advisories or even nothing. As for the Bighorns, there is at least a 3 out 4 chance of greater than 6 inches of new snow, but the chance of a foot is generally less than 1 out of 3. Any impactful snow would hold off until Tuesday afternoon or evening, so we still have time to decide on any highlights here. As for the lower elevations, impacts look minimal. Warmer air will try to push into the area, especially on Wednesday. With 700 millibar temperatures expected to rise as high as minus 2 by Wednesday, snow levels may rise as high as 7500 feet, keeping the valleys a rain / snow mix and even all rain at times. Chances of 3 inches of snow or more are basically zero because of this. As for the lower elevations East of the Divide, there could be some light snow in the Big Horn Basin and Johnson County. But, with the warmer air moving in, especially on Wednesday, any accumulation would be negligible. One caveat is that there is still some spread in the details of timing of the periods of heaviest snow. The deterministic runs have a lot of differences as well, with the European much wetter than the GFS for example. WIND DISCUSSION...We are already starting to see some gusty wind develop in places like Casper this morning. There has been a bit of a change in that the jet has moved a bit further north, and this brought some of the strongest wind gusts down a bit. However, we still have a good set up for strong wind much of southern and central Wyoming in the right front quadrant of the jet, a tight pressure gradient and strong winds at 700 millibars. The strongest 700 millibar winds are now down to around 60 to 65 knots as opposed to the 80 knots yesterday, guidance does tend to be a bit bold a few days out. Nevertheless, we still have a very good chance of high wind across much of the area. Much of the southwestern wind corridor from Kemmerer to Rock Springs to Casper has at least a 3 in 4 chance of wind gusts past 55 mph sometime between Monday night and Wednesday night. With this, we have upgraded the High Wind Watch to warning for all of the zones starting at 11 pm tonight. The most prolonged high wind will be across southern Lincoln and Sweetwater County, this includes Interstate 80 as well. In Natrona County, Tuesday looks like the most impactful day with a greater than 4 out of 5 chance of wind gusts past 55 mph. Chances drop a bit on Wednesday, but not enough confidence to drop it for this day. There are two other areas of concern. One is in northern Johnson County, which could see a brief period of high wind Wednesday afternoon as flow turns northwest, with some areas having a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts past 50 mph. The other is the Upper Wind River Basin, which has a similar set up. Again, this would likely not be until Tuesday, so there is still time to decide. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere, but changes of high wind are 1 out of 4 or less. REST OF THE FORECAST...It will be fairly mild outside of the mountains, with some areas seeing highs into the 40s and even the 50s, especially on Wednesday as flow becomes southwesterly. We are also watching another piece of energy that could bring some precipitation to northern Wyoming later Thursday into Friday. There is a large spread in guidance though so confidence remains rather low. Looking ahead to next weekend, at this point to looks largely dry with a gusty wind and above normal temperatures, but confidence remains rather low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 415 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions across all terminals to start the TAF period, the one exception is KJAC where MVFR ceilings may begin to move in by the start of the period. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots will continue at KCOD, KRKS, and KCPR through much of the overnight into Tuesday morning. Other terminals will see breezy winds of 15 to 25 knots through the overnight but not to the same extent as the three others listen beforehand. Precipitation returns to KJAC this evening with temperatures likely too warm for all snow so a mix of snow/rain or all rain is expected. Showers will be possible at KJAC through the overnight with prevailing precipitation likely to arrive by the late morning on Tuesday. Winds increase furthermore at KJAC by the mid to late morning with gusts around 30 knots through the afternoon. Other terminals are forecast to stay mainly dry with a few VCSH at KCOD and KPNA. Winds increase furthermore by the late morning hours at nearly all terminals. The strongest gusts will be at KCPR, KRKS, and KCOD where gusts of 35 to 45 knots will be possible. Other terminals will see gusts of 20 to 35 knots with a few terminals seeing these winds persist through the end of the TAF period. Mountain obscuration will continue to increase over western ranges with obscuration likely to persist through much of the TAF period. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ008-014-015-024. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ012. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ016. High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ019-020-022-027>030. && $$ UPDATE...Hensley DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Dziewaltowski ####018003488#### FXUS64 KLUB 082318 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 518 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Breezy and unseasonably warm temperatures expected Tuesday before a cold front early Wednesday. - A secondary cold front Friday will bring cooler temperatures through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Sunny and quiet conditions will continue through the rest of today. In the mid/upper levels, northwesterly flow will prevail for the short term period as a shortwave translates over the Great Lakes region and upper ridging builds off the coast of SoCal. Breezy southwesterly winds on the surface and mostly sunny skies will warm temperatures to the 60s across the region by this afternoon. Westerly winds will weaken after sunset and remain light overnight. Below freezing lows are forecast tonight for much of the region, although some areas off the Caprock will see "warmer" highs in the upper 30s. A warmer and breezy Tuesday is expected with tightening of the pressure gradient due to a surface low translating over the Great Lakes region will increase west to southwesterly winds through the afternoon. Winds were slightly bumped up from NBM to match closer to MOS guidance with wind speeds up to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph forecast. West to southwesterly surface flow and mostly sunny skies will warm high temperatures up to upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Otherwise, conditions remain dry. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 The main focus of the extended period will be a couple of cold fronts progged to push through the region through the end of the week. To start off the extended forecast, in the mid/upper levels, northwesterly flow will continue to prevail as another trough translates over the Great Lakes region and the ridging persists off the coast of SoCal. On the surface, a cold front will push through the region early Wednesday. Breezy north to northeast winds will follow the front, however are expected not expected to persist long and should weaken by the afternoon. NBM post-frontal winds were underestimated, therefore increased using NBM75th. CAA from the front, although weak, will cool highs back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Winds will veer back to the south by the end of the day as a lee surface trough develops over Colorado. Height rises and southwesterly surface flow will warm temperatures Thursday to well above (~15-20 degrees) seasonal normal with highs in the 70s across the region. The warm up does not last long as a secondary cold front is progged to push southwestward through the region Friday afternoon bringing cooler temperatures for the weekend. However, as this set up is still a few days out and timing of the FROPA may change. Therefore, can expect to see changes to Friday highs for future forecasts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR with light winds overnight, becoming westerly at 15-20 knots at LBB and PVW toward noon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...93 ####018003192#### FXUS64 KMOB 082318 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 518 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Gusty winds are expected on Monday behind the cold front. Temperatures fall into the upper 20s to low 30s for locations generally north of I-10 by sunrise on Tuesday. - Cool and dry conditions expected to persist through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1153 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Finally a break from dreary, cold, damp rain that has overstayed its welcome the last week or so. The good news is that we likely put a good dent into drought conditions across the area but now we will return to cool and dry conditions as the cold front has finally pushed through the area. Dry northwesterly flow will prevail through the entire week as broad troughing lingers across the eastern US. Several weak shortwaves passing through the flow will bring re-enforicing shots of cold air throughout the end of the week but with moisture scoured out no precip is expected with any of these systems. The main talk will be the return of the sun and temperatures fluctuating between pleasant to cool as each wave moves through. Expect highs Tuesday and Wednesday to start off 50s on Tuesday but return to the mid 60s by Wednesday. Lows will also start in the upper 20s to low 30s tonight then slowly increase each night back into the 40s by Wednesday. The next shot of cooler air comes by Friday into Saturday as one of the re- enforcing cold fronts moves through leading to lows dropping back into the 30s and low 40s and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Overall a rather un-eventful week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 MVFR ceilings will likely persist through much of the overnight before improving to VFR in the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. Gusty winds persist with 20-25 knots possible over the next few hours with gusts to 15 knots possible overnight. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 1153 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Strong northerly winds will continue through the afternoon and into tonight behind a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through late tonight before relaxing. Westerly to southwesterly winds are expected in the middle to end of the week. Another round of strong northerly winds are expected early in the weekend as the next cold front moves through. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 34 58 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 38 58 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 39 58 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 30 60 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 29 58 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 28 58 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 32 59 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>632- 650-655-670-675. && $$ ####018003340#### FXUS66 KHNX 082319 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 319 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 .UPDATE... Updated AQ Section && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fog and low clouds will continue each night and morning across the San Joaquin Valley this week. Dense fog will also develop at times in the lower Sierra foothills, coastal ranges, and the Grapevine. 2. A gradual warming trend will occur in the mountains and desert through out week, as the high pressure pattern continues over the region. && .DISCUSSION... As the ridge of high pressure maintains its grip across the Southwest, a stagnant weather pattern will exist over the region and keep Central California dry. Low clouds continue to plague the San Joaquin Valley as afternoon highs fall short of their seasonal normal values. Probabilities of reaching seasonal normal values struggle to reach a percentage higher than 10 percent for much of the week. On the contrary, outside of the San Joaquin Valley, the probability of reaching 60 degrees sits in between 70 and 95 percent. With these high percentage value showing up for much of the week, a warming trend is in store for the region. However, just not for the San Joaquin Valley. In the realm of precipitation, ensemble moisture analysis is showing the blocking high maintaining its position over the Eastern Pacific, and placing the steering current in the direction of the Pacific Northwest. With little change in the next 5 day, Central California will remain dry and covered in low clouds. Longer range ensemble analysis does show a change in the pattern with a hint toward the introduction of precipitation as early as next Monday (15 Dec 2025). If the pattern toward precipitation holds, will investigate the extend of the next storm that could reach Central California. && .AVIATION... IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail for much of the San Joaquin Valley during the next 24 hours. LIFR conditions will also persist in the coastal ranges, Sierra foothills, and the Kern County mountains due to the low stratus deck. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in the Sierra Nevada and in the Kern County Mountains and Desert over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 12/08/2025 15:07 EXPIRES: 12/09/2025 23:59 On Tuesday December 9 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ300-304-308- 313-316>322-334>336. && $$ public...Molina aviation....JPK weather.gov/hanford ####018002798#### FXUS65 KGJT 082319 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 419 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers are possible in the northern mountains through the week. The probability of 6+ inches of snow is around 60 percent across the high peaks of the Park Range late Tuesday into Thursday. - A general warming trend is expected, but the snow covered mountains valleys will see cold inversions set up overnight lasting through the days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 114 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Northwest flow with mild temperatures is the theme this week. A strong jet aloft is expected to advect a modest plume of moisture into the Northern Rockies over the next several days. Our area will be located on the southern edge of that plume. Therefore at times it may bring snow showers to the northern mountains starting late tonight through Wednesday. It will only bring passing clouds to the rest of the area. This air mass will be mild therefore snow levels will range from 7.5-8.5 kft. The amount of precipitation has varied each forecast cycle, but the overall trend has been downward and perhaps steady at this point. The Park Range looks to get a majority of the snow with the Elkheads, Flat Tops and Gore Range getting minor amounts. There is also quite a range of snowfall (0-20") from the bottom of the Parks to the top. The central and southern mountains could see periods of flurries with little to no accumulation. Temperatures for the next few days look to be 5-15 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 114 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Upper level ridging drives the extended forecast. Late in the week high pressure will build over the Intermountain West leading to warming temperatures and little, if any, chance for precipitation Thursday through Sunday. If the forecast holds as is, much of the area will see multiple days of high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal for mid-December. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 333 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 High clouds are moving into the area, with some lingering midlevel clouds across the northern and central mountains. With the exception of KHDN, all locations will see ceilings above breakpoints and VFR conditions prevail. Winds will be generally light and terrain driven. KHDN could see some light rain or snow showers between 12z and 18z tomorrow, which may drop conditions into MVFR/IFR. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...KAA AVIATION...TGJT ####018005525#### FXUS63 KOAX 082319 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 519 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief warmup is expected into Tuesday, with highs warming into the mid 40s to mid 50s. - Strong winds possible (50% chance) Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with gusts 40 to 50 mph. - Snow chances late Wednesday into Thursday (20-40%), followed by a return of colder temperatures for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Low clouds this afternoon are gradually clearing from west to east across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. These clouds have made it hard for areas along and east of a line from Norfolk to Lincoln to warm up, with temperatures still in the upper 20s to low 30s under the clouds. Once clouds clear, though, warm air advection should allow temperatures to pop up pretty quickly before sunset, with highs still expected to reach into the mid 30s in Omaha, and low 40s for areas west of Fremont. The upper-level pattern shows a standing wave across the CONUS which will remain fairly stationary through the rest of the week, with a broad ridge over the West Coast, and troughing over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This will allow for a series of clipper systems to eject out of the Canadian Rockies southward into the Northern Plains over the next several days providing at least one decent chance for precipitation Thursday into Friday. Looking at tonight, the first in this series of impulses arrives, mainly bringing cloud cover to the area and a shift in winds to west or southwesterly. A low pressure system passing to our north will bring a warm front through which will only increase warm-air advection into Tuesday leading to some potential for fog development early Tuesday morning depending on how much winds are able to relax. For now, model guidance isn't sold on the potential for fog, so have left it out of the grids, but I'd say there's about a 30% chance we see fog between 5-10 AM on Tuesday. With a significant amount of warm-air advection ongoing on Tuesday, temperatures are going to warm into the mid 40s to low 50s across the area Tuesday afternoon which will likely lead to significant snowmelt across the area. The next, much more dynamic clipper Low will skirt to our north tomorrow night into Wednesday, primarily bringing the potential for strong winds to eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as it deepens fairly rapidly over Minnesota and Iowa. We may need a Wind Advisory for the overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for gusts 40 to 50 mph. Right now soundings show a stout inversion in place which would help keep those stronger winds up above the surface layer, but that burns off around 15Z which would allow those 40 to 50 mph gusts to reach the surface for the late morning hours toward the tail end of the event. If we see that inversion mix out earlier we could potentially see several hours of gusts 40 to 50 mph starting around midnight. This same system could potentially bring some light rain to far northeast Nebraska Tuesday afternoon, but should exit the area before temperatures get cold enough for snow. Wednesday colder air moves back in behind the low pressure system exiting to the east with temperatures only warming into the low-to-mid 30s across much of our area. This will prime the environment for our next, weaker, shortwave which could lead to the development of a frontogenesis band stretching somewhere from western South Dakota into eastern Nebraska overnight Wednesday night into early Thursday. We'll want to watch this closely as these bands typically bring a narrow corridor of heavier snow with sharp cutoffs north and south with little-to- no snow. Behind this Thursday system we see another cold front move through, this time bringing more arctic air into the area for the weekend. Any additional chances for snow will be highly dependent on any shifts in the standing wave across the CONUS with the storm track bringing additional impulses out of the Canadian Rockies. Right now, ensemble guidance is predicting the storm track will shift slightly farther northeast keeping us dry and cold over the weekend. Temperatures will be cooling back down starting Friday with highs down in the teens to mid 20s across much of the area. Highs remain in the teens to mid 20s into Saturday as well. We may start to see temperatures rebound a bit on Sunday as guidance suggests the ridge over the west coast finally starts to shift eastward, but with how far out in the forecast this is, there is still a lot of uncertainty. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 MVFR ceilings are lifting northeast out of OMA currently. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the forecast period. Winds will generally be southerly to southwesterly tonight into Tuesday. LLWS may develop late this evening across the area, but confidence remains low in this hazard. The duration of concern is only expected to be a couple of hours and guidance keeps the strength of LLWS below criteria. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Chehak