####018006052#### FXUS63 KJKL 100900 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 500 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some showers and perhaps a storm or two are possible, at times, through early next week. - A cold front passing early this morning will usher in cooler temperatures through the weekend, with warming then returning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky still in the midst of cyclonic flow from a low off the coast from Norfolk, VA. An upper level disturbance is also moving through the area early this morning helping drive a cold front into this part of the state. This has periodically supported some light showers along it but is now mainly noted by increased clouds along and north of itself, as well as a wind shift and pick up from the north to northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Otherwise, temperatures are fairly uniform through eastern Kentucky - generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running in the low to mid 50s with any fog fleeting and limited to the deeper river valleys. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in fairly good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a trough finishing its push into Kentucky this morning - dragging its core mid level energy through during the afternoon. This then allows for a rebound in 5h heights in its wake tonight before a second fast moving trough descends into the northeast parts of the area for Saturday along with limited height falls in northwest mid level flow - with an uptick in energy as well. The model spread is fairly small with these key features so the NBM was used as the starting point for the short term grids along with the incorporation of the CAMs details for PoPs and timing today and again on Saturday. Sensible weather features slightly unsettled and cooler weather through the first part of the weekend. The boundary passing through the area this morning will keep a small chance of showers or a thunderstorm in the picture through the afternoon before a lull sets in during the upcoming night, though there probably will be a better shot at seeing mainly river valley fog as the clouds thin, or partially clear, for a time into Saturday morning. Then another chance at some showers and a stray thunderstorm or two arrives for Saturday afternoon with the latter feature aloft brushing by to the northeast. The thunder chances appear to be meager over much of the state with this, but in the east there will likely be CAPE above 500 J/kg for a time along with a weaker 700 mb cap, though the lapse rates will be on the small side. As such - do have a gradient of thunder potential west to east through the JKL CWA on Saturday. Additionally, the thunder chances (and PoPs) fade out quickly by dusk that evening. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point consisted of adding in some terrain details to the hourly temperatures and lows tonight. As for PoPs - the NBM values were adjusted to include some CAMs details for the limited potential of convection through the afternoon and again on Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 605 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024 The models are in generally good agreement with the long wave pattern through the majority of the period, although detail differences concerning the smaller scale features decrease the forecast confidence by the middle of next week. A short wave trough will shift from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region to New England, cutting off as it treks east through the weekend. An accompanying surface cold front will push southeast, reinforcing cooler across the Commonwealth into Sunday morning, as well as bringing an uptick in rain chances (30-60%) during the day on Saturday. The higher rain chances will be confined more towards Ohio and West Virginia. 500 mb heights will recover over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Saturday night through Monday morning, with dry weather expected. Meanwhile, another cutoff low will move from the southern Plains/middle Mississippi Valley region through the Ohio/Tennessee valleys through mid-week, bringing another period of unsettled weather to eastern Kentucky from Monday through Wednesday. Rain chances could linger on Thursday as well, depending on how quickly another progressive short wave trough moves in from the southwest. The ECMWF is slower, and shows sharper short wave ridging taking hold, while the GFS is weaker and exits the ridge faster. This will be followed by an inbound short wave trough stemming from a long wave trough moving over the central CONUS. Given that the ensembles have generally trended lower with rain chances for Thursday, have leaned that way as well, and undercut the blended PoPs a bit. For temperatures, below normal readings will be in place for this weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and lows in the 40s. Temperatures will then trend warmer next week, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s by Thursday, and lows modifying through the 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024 A cold front will approach from the northwest and move into the area Friday morning. This passage will bring MVFR CIGs and some isolated to scattered shower activity through 18Z Friday. CIGs then improve by mid-afternoon Friday as the system begins to depart to the east. Light winds this morning will become northwesterly and increases to around 10 kts during the day, Friday, as the front settles through the region. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...CMC/GREIF ####018004005#### FXUS63 KGID 100903 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 403 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few sprinkles possible this afternoon, but no accumulation expected. - A return to more active weather returns Saturday evening as an upper level low approaches the area from the west. This could result in increased cloud cover as well as unsettled weather (40-80% chance) late Saturday night through Monday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance) return with a cold front/upper level disturbance Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again, severe weather is not anticipated. - For the most part temperatures will remain seasonable through the period with high temperatures climbing into the 70s along with low temperatures mostly in the 40s and lower 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A few high clouds can be seen on satellite this morning streaming across the local area from the west as the next area of low pressure spins across central Nevada. For today, expect another pleasant day across the region with slightly lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes across the local area. As the same time, expect a few cumulus to develop across the area again this afternoon - with some sprinkles (as seen in NAMnest and to a lesser extend in the HRRR) likely in spots later in the day as daytime heating helps in the development of some mainly fair weather CU. Looking at soundings, this CU should be pretty shallow given the inversion aloft, and think no more than a few sprinkles (with no accumulation) appears likely at this time. As the pressure gradient weakens further and winds turn westerly on Saturday, expect a slightly warmer and less breezy day across the area, with high temperatures likely approaching the upper 70s to near 80 in spots. The focus will then shift to the aforementioned upper level low to our west that is expect to cross just south of the local area on Sunday. This should mark the return of a better chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity spreading across the region as early as late Saturday night, with off and on small chances for thunderstorms then continuing into Monday morning. While precipitation will not be continuous and thunderstorms should not be severe late this weekend, precipitation should be a bit more widepsread with most locations seeing some accumulation over this period (maybe a quarter of an inch or so), with the higher amounts expected across north central Kansas - which will be closer to the upper level low/forcing. While Tuesday daytime will likely be dry, a cold front coupled with an upper level wave could bring additional chances for precip beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday. Again, severe weather chances appear limited given the atmospheric profile, but most areas should see some light accumulating precip over this period. Overall, temperatures should remain fairly pleasant through the period, with afternoon high temperatures mostly fluctuating in the 70s and lows in the 40s and lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with a few high clouds visible in Satellite imagery that are anticipated to pass by the terminals through the period. In addition...could see a bit of fair weather CU develop during the afternoon near 6KFT, with steady northwest winds gusting to near 20 KTS possible for a few hours during the afternoon hours Friday...before subsiding again near sunset. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi ####018005516#### FXUS65 KREV 100904 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 204 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend continues across the Sierra and western Nevada with above average temperatures expected by this weekend. The potential for showers and thunderstorms also returns to the Sierra this afternoon with slight chances through the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... The latest RAP analysis shows an upper air low over NV/UT and just east of the CWA causing a northeasterly flow over the CWA this morning. Current satellite imagery and surface observations report variable winds across the region with some broken high clouds moving through Churchill, Mineral and Mono Counties while the remainder of the CWA sees mostly clear skies. Model guidance shows the northeasterly flow over the CWA continuing through the rest of today as the upper air low moves southward to over the AZ/NV/UT border and an upper air ridge progresses over the Pacific Northwest. Down below, models project a surface low moving into the San Francisco area during the afternoon which will allow for east-northeasterly winds in the northern half of the CWA and north-northeasterly winds in the southern half that may gust up to around 25 mph. While dry conditions are expected for most of the region, portions of the region in Mono and Mineral counties see a 10-15% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening with light snow possible for the highest elevations. Not much moisture is anticipated with these precipitation chances. As for today's temperature forecast, daytime high temperatures look to range between the middle to upper 50s in the Sierra crest and the middle 70s in western NV. Overnight low temperatures expect to be in the 30s and 40s with higher elevations being slightly colder. Looking to the weekend, model guidance projects the forward portion of the aforementioned ridge to move over the CWA by Saturday afternoon as the upper air low progresses eastward over the Four Corners region. The axis of this upper air ridge is forecast to move over the CWA on Sunday afternoon as a weak trough proceeds into the Pacific Northwest with a weak upper air low feature west of southern CA making an appearance over the Pacific Ocean. At the surface, chances for precipitation look to have tapered off a bit in the latest model runs though there may be a 10% chance or less for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Sierra on Saturday followed by a slight increase to 10-15% on Sunday afternoon. The warming trend is expected to persist with some portions of the region seeing daytime highs around the 80 degree mark on Saturday and then up to the middle 80s on Mother's Day. It may be a pleasant weekend for some outdoor activities, but please stay weather aware in case this changes. For the new work week, forecast guidance depicts the Pacific Northwestern trough progressing eastward and clipping the northern portion of the CWA as it passes on Monday morning. At the same time, the low to the southwest continues a trek eastward across southern CA on Monday with both it and the trough making their way east and past the CWA on Tuesday morning. Models than show north-northwesterly flow over the CWA with these features having passed by with an larger upper air ridge trailing them on Tuesday. On Wednesday, ensemble guidance continues to show the ridge dominating the pattern over the western CONUS. Some solution differences are seen on Thursday and Friday with the latest run of the GFS Ensemble showing a western ridge and eastern trough pattern over the CONUS. The ECMWF and Canadian Ensembles however both show a potential Canadian low suppressing the western ridge later in the week instead causing a zonal flow over the CWA. With this upper air pattern evolution aloft, a slight chance (10-20%) for precipitation may be seen during Monday afternoon and evening for southern portions of the region with the remainder staying dry as the above normal temperatures continue. There looks to be a weak cold front passing through the region early Tuesday morning, but daytime temperatures look to rebound quickly by Tuesday afternoon as highs in the 70s and 80s do look to continue. The warming trend is currently forecast to resume on Wednesday along with region-wide dry conditions and continue through Friday though will continue to monitor ensembles for better agreement going forward. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites to end the week. For expected winds, breezy easterly afternoon winds will develop later this morning and into the afternoon before shifting to lighter flow on Saturday. The more typical west winds are slated to return on Sunday afternoon. Breezes will remain in the 20-25 kt range each afternoon through the weekend, with the lightest winds on Saturday. As for precipitation chances, most TAF sites look to stay mostly dry going into the weekend with the exception of KMMH that may see a slight chance (10-15%) for isolated showers late this afternoon and Sunday afternoon with lesser chances on Saturday. -078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$