####018005241#### FXUS63 KFSD 161140 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will return starting this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Severe weather is not expected. - Strong northwest winds by Wednesday will bring the return of gusts between 40-50 mph. With additional scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms possible by Wednesday afternoon, could see an additional strong wind threat. && .UPDATE... Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Taking a look across the area, mostly clear conditions continue tonight as temperatures continue to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s. Depending on if winds can get light enough, could get some patchy River Valley fog to develop mainly along portions of the James and Missouri River Valleys. While the fog won't last long, can't rule out some brief visibility reductions on those morning commutes. Otherwise, quieter conditions will continue into the early afternoon with highs peaking in the low 70s to mid 80s for the day. Looking aloft, we're still on track for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms to develop this evening as an approaching shortwave and warm front progress through the area on the nose of an upper-level jet streak. Given the high shear/low CAPE environment, severe weather is not expected. However, pockets of moderate rainfall along with an occasional stroke of lightning will be possible with any stronger activity that develops into the overnight hours. The strongest activity will likely be focused along and north of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Spencer line. Nonetheless, we could see light returns across most of the county warning area (CWA) through daybreak on Wednesday. No significant changes to Wednesday onward; see below for details. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Model soundings and the latest hi-res models continue to indicate the potential for strong wind gusts with any shower and thunderstorm activity that develops this afternoon and evening. These wind gusts will be tied to surface based instability of about 200-500 J/kg. Given the diurnal nature of this activity, the best chance for the strong wind gusts will be roughly 4 pm to 9 pm. Only very isolated activity will linger through about 10 pm to midnight. Otherwise a little patchy fog will be possible around the Kingsbury and Brookings county areas late tonight and early Tuesday morning. An unseasonably strong jet max will dive southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. As this jet max moves into the area Tuesday, warm advection will increase with the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms arriving possibly during the afternoon, but the better chances will be at night. While forcing is fairly strong, instability is lacking due to a fairly deep dry layer in the lower levels. However, with the EML running around 7.5 C and some decent forcing, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with this shot of lift. The better chances appear to be near and northeast of a Huron to Spencer IA line with the best chances in southwest MN. This almost spring or fall like system will bring strong surface winds to the area Wednesday. Gusts of 45 to 50 mph will be likely during the day as mixing brings down some very strong winds aloft. The latest models show a 130 knot jet around 300 mb, with unidirectional flow from the west northwest throughout the atmosphere. While we will have a small convective threat on Wednesday afternoon and evening, model soundings indicate weaker instability than today, but still some 100-300 J/kg surface based CAPE mainly north of I-90. With the strong, unidirectional winds, wind gusts around 50 mph with these showers will be possible. Broad troughiness moves through Thursday and should bring quieter weather and seasonably cool conditions. Weak upper level ridging builds on Friday and will keep quiet weather in place with temperatures back into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Saturday will see a system pass by, possibly a bit to the south. However this will be the next better chance for showers and storms with isolated severe storms possible. Something worth keeping an eye on. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Quieter conditions will continue through midday. Scattered showers will gradually become more widespread into the evening. Added in MVFR PROB30 groups for both KFSD & KHON since that's where the highest confidence is. Carried prevailing VFR -SHRA into KSUX since they're on the edge. Otherwise, light northwesterly winds will become more southerly heading into the overnight hours to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...05 DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05 ####018007423#### FXUS66 KMFR 161140 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 440 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs...Aside from some high clouds streaming over the area, little change is expected to VFR flight levels in this TAF period. Gusty north winds (20-30 kt) are expected to return to the coast today while other areas will see typical diurnal breezes. Patches of IFR stratus are possible at the coast north of Cape Blanco this afternoon, between 18-21z, with potentially more coverage overnight tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026/ KEY POINTS... * Hot temperatures continue today, with Heat Advisory in effect until tonight. Temperatures trend somewhat cooler on Wednesday with a more noticeable cool down Friday into the weekend. * Elevated fire weather concerns Thursday -- dry and unstable conditions. * Increasing signal for thunderstorms for latter half of week, possibly as early as Thursday, but most likely on Friday. Focus for activity expected over northern California and east of the Cascades. DISCUSSION...Fairly quiet morning with satellite imagery only showing some high level clouds streaming over the region. It'll be another hot day across the region, though the heat wave will begin to ebb for areas west of the Cascades today, most notable along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Basin. The upper level pattern responsible for this heat features a strong high pressure just offshore over the eastern Pacific, that will weaken and expand eastward today, eventually settling into the Great Basin region by Thursday. Meanwhile, weak energy will linger off the coast of California and meander westward around this high pressure while it expands/shifts eastward. This energy comes into play for the latter half of the week. In the meantime, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening due to a moderate risk of heat related illnesses. Be sure to take precautions to protect yourself from the heat. If you plan to seek relief in area waterways, please remember that the water is still quite cold, and cold water shock is a real thing. Temperatures do trend cooler for the latter half of the week, but will remain above normal (mid-upper 90s West/upper 80s-low 90s East) until the weekend. So instead of being 15-25 degrees above normal like yesterday, it'll "cool" to only 10-15 degrees above normal. The upper level pattern shifts on Thursday. That meandering weak energy combines with a few other weak shortwaves passing through in the westerlies and carves out a weak open trough over the eastern Pacific by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures tick upward a few degrees on Thursday under southerly flow, and it's possible we see another triple degree day here in Medford on Thursday. The larger concern however, is the thunderstorm potential that comes with this pattern transition. It's almost a guarantee that heat waves conclude with a thunder threat, and it seems this event is no different. Moisture and instability increase on Thursday, and there are some weak shortwaves passing through, but moisture is pretty marginal on Thursday. It's more likely that there will be some cumulus buildups with a stray shower across northern California. By Friday, however, the trough nudges closer and moisture looks more favorable for thunderstorms. Currently, it looks like the focus would be across northern California and east of the Cascades, but model guidance shows some potential convection over the Siskiyous, which could bring some storms into southeastern Jackson County. We'll keep an eye on model trends to see if thunderstorm chances expand westward with time. The trough axis moves through the region Friday night, taking the moisture and instability east of our region for Saturday. It's possible some isolated activity lingers across far eastern Lake/Modoc counties early Saturday afternoon. The coolest temperatures of the forecast period are expected over the weekend as this trough passes through. Afternoon highs will still be above normal, but only on the level of 5-10 degrees. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026...A thermal trough pattern will persist through Thursday. Conditions will worsen this afternoon as northerly winds strengthen, reaching gales south of Cape Blanco and seas become very steep and hazardous. Very steep seas could spread north of Cape Blanco around mid-week, but the worst conditions are expected south of Cape Blanco. Conditions could improve late Thursday into Friday as the thermal trough pattern weakens, but steep seas are likely to persist into the weekend. FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026...The heatwave will begin to ebb today for areas west of the Cascades, most notable along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Basin. Meanwhile, temperatures remain hot east of the Cascades and across northern California. With the moderating temperatures west of the Cascades, conditions will be less critical today, but it will still be dry and breezy this afternoon. A weak marine push will bring improving recoveries tonight compared to recent days, but this improvement will be shortlived. The thermal trough will remain along the coast through Wednesday, then push inland on Thursday. This will maintain broad north through east flow across the midslopes/ridges, and poor recoveries are expected again Wednesday night. As the thermal trough shifts inland Thursday, expect another uptick in temperatures across the region. Additionally, this pattern will bring dry and unstable conditions across northern California and east of the Cascades. Meanwhile, an open trough develops offshore over the eastern Pacific on Thursday, moving inland late Friday and east of the region on Saturday. This pattern sets up the potential for thunderstorms during this time frame, focused across northern California and east of the Cascades. Chances for thunderstorms are highest on Friday, but could begin as early as Thursday. Moisture remains fairly marginal for Thursday, but instability is present. Could just be some cumulus buildups with a stray shower or even an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. As the upper level low moves closer to the coast on Friday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases. Current guidance maintains the best chances across northern California and east of the Cascades, but there is the potential for as far west as Jackson County. By Saturday, the best moisture/instability shifts east, leaving some lingering chances along/east of the Warners/Winter Ridge. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ024-026-029. CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080>085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. && $$ ####018003010#### FXUS64 KMRX 161142 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 742 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 741 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Dry and seasonally mild conditions are expected to continue today. - A system will bring showers and storms to the region Thursday into Thursday night. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds as the main concern. Localized flooding is also possible due to repeated rainfall. - Drier and milder conditions return later on Friday into Saturday with another return of rain chances early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Another dry one can be anticipated today with similar temperatures to yesterday, although humidity will be on the rise again. Perhaps a stray shower in the Southern Appalachians. A further increase in temperatures and dew points tomorrow with another possible dry day, but with moisture on the rise, the southern tier of the CWA could see isolated to scattered activity. Attention turns to Thursday into Friday, when an approaching cold front from the northwest potentially clashes with tropical moisture coming up from the south. Day 4 SPC, which will become Day 3 after this discussion's issuance, does place some of our southwest VA counties in a slight risk of severe weather. Shear may be "better" compared to recent events where deep layer shear was almost non- existent. PWATs will also rise, which will increase the flooding potential. This will certainly be something to watch with Day 4 and 5 ERO from WPC covering the area in a SLGT. Prior to, an increasing LLJ Wednesday into Thursday may bring elevated winds to the Smokies. Gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory may need considered. Precipitation chances decrease from northwest to southeast as the day goes on Friday. Temperatures will trend cooler again Friday into Saturday. Brief high pressure will dominate a part of the weekend with chances for precipitation increasing later Sunday. Chances then continue to persist through Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 741 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 VFR for most of the period, though CIGs are forecast to deteriorate to MVFR at KCHA late in the period tonight. Another dry day expected, with gusts peaking in the afternoon to 15 to 20 knots of southwesterly flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 65 88 73 / 10 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 64 88 73 / 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 62 87 72 / 0 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 59 86 66 / 0 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...Wellington ####018006894#### FXUS64 KHUN 161142 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 642 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 - Low to medium chances of showers and storms south of the Tennessee River through Wednesday. - Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday across much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, with heat indices between 95-100F forecast. - High chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, with a low risk for severe storms on Thursday and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flooding. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Increasing high clouds have hindered fog development so far this morning despite calm winds area wide and near 0 dewpoint depressions in some locations. We will continue to monitor a low chance for fog formation mainly in southern middle TN where cloud cover is lowest, but even in clear sky areas of TN we have seen very little fog formation as of this writing. Temps early this morning range from a comfortable 60-65 degrees and we will enjoy one more day of below normal temperatures before a return to southerly flow begins to advect a more tropical airmass to the area. No significant changes were needed during the early morning update. Previous discussion: Upper level zonal flow continues over the Tennessee Valley through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure persists over the lower Ohio Valley and Appalachians along with a stalled surface front to our south over central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. This will largely keep areas north of the Tennessee River dry, with low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and storms south of the River. Although we can't rule out the potential of a strong storm, confidence is low in any severe weather occurring. While bulk shear values range between 30-35 knots Tuesday afternoon, mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive. Sufficient instability is also a question due to abundant cloud cover. Regardless, if you work outside or have outdoor activities, if you hear thunder or see a flash, seek shelter immediately! Lastly, expect another mild day with highs topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations. However, portions of far northwest Alabama (such as Florence/Muscle Shoals) may peak closer to the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 The aforementioned pattern will persist into midweek, with low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and storms mainly south of the Tennessee River. However, by Wednesday night into Thursday, the weather pattern starts to shift as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest and a tropical disturbance from the western Gulf traverses Lousiana into Mississippi and towards Alabama. There remains uncertainty in the development and trajectory of the tropical disturbance, as well as how quickly the cold front moves into the Tennessee Valley. These details will have a large effect on how much rain we receive later this week; however, rain chances increase to between 60-90% on Thursday and persist through Thursday night (and also into Friday - see more below). As for temperatures, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows increasing to the lower to mid 70s by Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall and flooding will become a concern Thursday (and into/through Friday as well, discussed more below). Model PWATs increase to between 1.8-2.0 inches or so by Thursday afternoon, which is right around or greater than the 90th percentile when compared with BMX Sounding Climatology. Therefore, these showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers and bring heavy downpours and high rainfall rates. With the ground still saturated form recent rainfall, this will increase the risk of flash flooding/flooding. This could lead to rises in local creeks, streams, and rivers as well (especially by the weekend). Overall, this is corroborated by the Weather Prediction Center who has highlighted all of southern middle Tennessee and north Alabama in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall Thursday into Friday. Please check back for forecast updates and remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roads! && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Looks like we will end the work week with more rain. The question will be if the cold front has already arrived by now or if it will push in Friday morning. It will arrive to an environment with plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and PWATs 1.9-2.1" which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year. The best shear will be displaced pretty far north of us, and the associated sfc low will be north of the Lower Great Lakes. So right now, the main concern with the showers and thunderstorms that develop along the cold front is heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding or flash flooding. WPC has already placed us in a Slight ERO for Friday. Regardless, with the rainfall that we receive this week, we will see rises in rivers, creeks and streams on Friday, with issues lasting into the weekend. This is also reflected in the NASA SPoRT Stream Heights model for some creeks and rivers in our forecast area. The forecast gets further complicated when asking the questions, at what pace does the cold front push through the TN Valley and at what trajectory does the left overs of a possible tropical system move into the region? If the cold front if able to get south of us pretty quick on Friday, it will keep the higher rainfall totals in central AL. If not, or if it stalls out over us, we will see higher rainfall totals, thus more flooding problems. Post frontal high pressure will build in and provide rainfall relief for Saturday. This will be short-lived though, as low chances (30-40%) return on Sunday and Monday. This is due to a disturbance that scoots from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, then another system swings through the Midwest and pushes another cold front into the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period before MVFR to IFR cigs move in around midnight tonight. Winds will remain light through the period with increasing cloud cover from south to north. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25/26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...25 ####018012511#### FXUS63 KLOT 161143 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 643 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Period or two of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected today, with a level 1 of 5 severe risk east of I-55 including NW Indiana. - A dangerous severe weather outbreak, including the potential for long tracked, strong-violent tornadoes, is possible Wednesday, especially south of I-80. - Locally heavy rainfall Wednesday could result areas flash flooding and potentially some river flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Today: Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeast into the mid-upper Mississippi Valley with an embedded compact mid-upper level low. At the sfc, low pressure near Duluth early this morning will deepen as it moves southeast to near Green Bay by early this afternoon. A trailing cold front will sweep across the area later this morning through mid afternoon. While southerly winds ahead of this front will draw some moisture northward, an elongated east-west oriented ridge of high pressure to our south will block the return of any meaningful Gulf moisture today. A lead band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to blossom over northern IL toward sunrise as the increased ascent associated with a lead impulse encounters the better (though still somewhat meager by mid-June standards) moisture over the area. This lead band of showers and isolated t-storms should sweep quickly across the CWA between 11-16z. Despite the limited moisture, steep lapse rate and cold mid-upper level temps will likely allow for a narrow axis of up to around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop in the wake of the lead band of showers and in advance of approaching cold front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin to develop along and ahead of this front early-mid afternoon, with the big question for our area being how far east the front gets before storms develop. Strong shear and moderate instability would likely support a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps locally damaging winds. At this point, it appears the best chance of storms along the cold front in our CWA will be roughly near/east of I-55, especially across northwest Indiana where frontal passage will be latest to occur. Behind the front, look for gusty westerly winds, probably peaking in the 30-35 mph range at times this afternoon before quickly subsiding toward sunset. Wednesday: An unusually powerful shortwave trough is progged to race east-southeastward into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Model guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic scale with 500 mb heights progged to be 3-4 standard deviations below normal for mid June. At the sfc, an associated low pressure that could threat all- time monthly record for June is expected to develop across Wisconsin and eventually move into lower Michigan. Unsurprisingly, the kinematic fields with such an anomalously strong system are also nearing the upper echelons of what we see this time of year in the Midwest. All of this to say that synoptically, the ingredients are coming together for a potentially dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms and potentially long-tracked, intense tornadoes. On the mesoscale, there are naturally greater uncertainties regarding precisely where (and to a lesser extent, if) the overlap of exceptionally strong deep and low level shear and moderately strong instability will take place. SPC's latest SWODY2 highlights areas south of I-80 in our CWA with a rare day 2 moderate risk (level 4 of 5) for Wednesday. The potential ceiling for bad this severe weather event could get is quite high, but it is also important to note there are obviously still failure modes that could materialize on the mesoscale and prevent the reasonable worst case scenario from unfolding. The general expectation as it looks now is that a strong low level jet (increasing to 60kt+ at 850 mb by 12z Wed) will result in very strong low level theta-e advection and eventually the development of strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight. Initially development is expected over eastern IA, but as the low level jet translates eastward into IL, it should support this convection developing/moving into northern IL near/after sunrise Wednesday morning. While this convection will be elevated, strong effective shear and a reservoir of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE should allow for elevated supercells. The greatest severe risk Wednesday morning looks to be over our western and eventually southern CWA. In addition to the threat large hail, strong shearing instability near a sharpening frontal inversion would point to at least some threat for the development of gravity wave associated convection. Should this occur, a damaging wind threat could also develop, despite little or no sfc based instability. In fact, there could even be pockets of locally significant severe wind gusts (>75 mph) near or just west/south of our CWA Wednesday morning. This convection will probably evolve into an MCS as it tracks east across northern IL and into northwest Indiana Wednesday morning. The morning convection will likely augment the warm frontal position and at least initially slow the northward progression of the composite warm front/outflow boundary, delaying destabilization north into our CWA. This seems to be the most obvious potential failure mode: morning convection retarding the northward surge of the warm front and subsequently the stronger instability, keeping the extreme wind shear profiles and strong synoptic forcing somewhat divorced from the more favorable instability. While that is one potential obvious failure mode, at this point, it seems unlikely to fully succeed in completely disrupting the otherwise exceptionally favorable synoptic set-up from resulting in a high end severe threat. Though the precise location of the most likely area(s) to see a high end event, could change some on the mesoscale as the event nears. The reason that this morning convection is unlikely to completely stunt the northward surging warm front is the extremely strong mass response expected as a result of the near record deep low pressure system. With a far less intense low last Thursday, an impressively large footprint of a cold pool left behind from an MCS that lingered well into the afternoon was able to be completely overcome in just a matter of a couple of hours late in the day. Something similar seems plausible again tomorrow afternoon where a dissipating outflow boundary from early convection could separate an extremely volatile air mass from a still sufficiently unstable air mass north of the boundary could support severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. There is variance in guidance with just how far north the effective boundary will get, but somewhere generally in the vicinity of I-80 is where a majority of the models show it reaching its peak latitude in our CWA. To the south of this boundary, the environment looks similar to what's often seen in the cool season major tornado outbreak in the southeastern United States. Forecast hodographs are literally off the chart, with 0-1 environmental SRH >500 m^2/s^2. This sort of extreme low level shear, coupled with low LCLs and resultant strong 0-3km CAPE, fast storm motion, and favorable downstream environment is the classic type of set-up long tracked strong- violent tornadoes. It's important stress that while the synoptic set-up is classic for a tornado outbreak, we are dealing with convection that often alters the mesoscale environment in ways that cannot be anticipated 12-24+ hours in advance. As noted above, there are certainly scenarios where an alteration of the mesoscale environment could dramatically reduce or shift the area of the greatest tornado risk. For this reason, it is important to monitor later forecasts closely. Finally, in addition to the supercell tornado threat, a fast moving line of severe thunderstorms/possible derecho may also accompany the front producing widespread, potentially significant, wind damage as well as line embedded tornadoes, some possibly strong. Not to be overlooked, precipitable water values are progged to get to near or just above 2", meaning that convection will likely be extremely efficient rain producers. The stronger convection could easily produce 2"+ of rain in just an hour or so. Given the antecedent very moist ground and generally above average streamflow, there is a threat of flash flooding Wednesday. The greatest threat may be with the first round of convection, since it will likely be a bit slower moving and offer a better chance of some training cells than the second round. When the area most at risk can be better refined, we will need a flood watch for portions of the area for Wednesday as well. After Wednesday: We should see a break in the active pattern for the rest of the work week. There are indications that we could get into a more active northwest flow type pattern heading into the weekend and beyond. - Izzi && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Forecast concerns include... Scattered showers with a chance of thunderstorms this morning. Chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday morning. Gusty southwest winds this morning, then westerly this afternoon. A line of showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will move across the terminals over the next few hours. Brief wind gusts with some of these showers have been in the 25-30kt range, which are possible at the Chicago terminals. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue to develop through mid morning, behind this current activity and have expanded tempo thunder to 12z-16z for this potential. Once this activity moves east, there is expected to be a few hour break in the precip until a cold front moves across the area. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this cold front, which may be right over the Chicago terminals. Some of the most recent guidance suggests this afternoon development may be just east of the terminals. Current prob mention has this potential handled well for now. A few lingering showers are possible across far northeast IL and over southern Lake Michigan into early this evening. A period of rain, possibly heavy, and thunderstorms is expected to move across northern IL during the mid/late morning on Wednesday, though there remains uncertainty for location as the heaviest of this precipitation may move just south of the terminals. Given current trends, some thunder mention is needed for the end of the new 30 hour ORD/MDW forecasts and opted for prob mention for now. There is an area of mvfr cigs across far northeast IA and southeast MN that may move southeast and across northern IL and the terminals late this morning into early this afternoon. Low confidence at this time but opted for scattered mvfr level cloud cover for now. Prevailing mvfr cigs may develop Wednesday morning depending on precipitation coverage. Southwest winds will gust into the lower/mid 20kt range by mid/late morning and then shift westerly with the cold front with gusts this afternoon into the mid/upper 20kt range. These winds will diminish with sunset this evening with directions turning southwest this evening, southerly overnight and then winds will become southeasterly Wednesday morning. Speeds and gusts will begin to increase with gusts to 20kt by late Wednesday morning. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018006171#### FXUS64 KEWX 161143 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 643 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Coastal Plains through this evening with pockets of heavy rainfall and high hourly rainfall rates expected at times. - Dry weather conditions are forecast for most of South Central Texas middle of the week. Rain chances return Friday and continue into the weekend. - Warm and humid conditions return middle of the week and persist into next week. Thursday is likely to be the hottest day of the next several. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Currently PWATs still are in the 2 to 2.4in range from the I-35 Corridor on eastward with highest PWATs over the Coastal Plains. The front responsible for all the heavy rainfall last night has stalled and is currently bisecting our area from Maverick County northeastward along and just west of the I-35 Corridor. We expect a lull in activity tonight as most of the area has been worked over from earlier this morning. That said the potential tropical disturbance located over northern Mexico is poised to slowly move east northeastward over deep south TX. Many hurricane models continue to show an east-northeastward track before moving just over the Gulf. Afterwards models show the disturbance moving north- northeastward and continuing hugging the TX coast. With this type of track we may get some heavier bands moving across our Coastal Plains and far southern counties in the Rio Grande today as the disturbance makes its closest approach. Otherwise most of the heavier rainfall should remain south of us. Regardless any thunderstorms that can tap into this abundant tropical moisture will be capable of producing torrential downpours with 2-3 inch rates per hour certainly possible anywhere over the Coastal Plains and perhaps into Rio Grande where a Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening. Recent Hi-res guidance seems to be on board with this scenario with most showing additional totals in the 1-3 inch range across the aforementioned areas. It should be stressed that any wobbles in this track or slight jogs northward and we could see heavy rainfall much further north into our area thus increasing the heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat. Soils across the area remain saturated so it would take even less rainfall to exacerbate and cause renewed flooding concerns. Eventually the frontal boundary and tropical disturbance push out of and away from our area taking the rain and storm chances with it. Dry air will accompany this on the backside allowing most of area to dry out starting Wednesday. Moisture remains but should be on the downward trend. As a result temperatures will warm back up into the low 90s with mid 90s possible across the Rio Grande. Heat indices will start to become elevated as well with the combination of high moisture and hotter temps we could see heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Drier weather continues into Thursday and depending on how far east the tropical disturbance gets we could see temps really ramp up with the return of triple digits not out of the question across our western areas. We will need to monitor this closely as this heat combined with remaining moisture across the area could push heat indices well above 110 to perhaps 115 degrees. Certainly something to watch as we would likely need to issue heat products if this trend continues for Thursday. We don't remain hot for long as global models continue indicating some sort of an upper level disturbance and/or convective outflow/front moving across our area Friday into the weekend. Scattered rain and storm chances are then forecast to spread over the region with isolated heavier downpours possible once again. Regarding temperatures, we should see highs back to near 90 Friday and Saturday with low to mid 90s possible Sunday and beyond. Thus the prospects for heat remain as we warm right back up towards the latter part of the weekend. It will still feel very warm however as abundant moisture sticks around. We could still see heat indices anywhere from 100 to 109 degrees. Remember to continue to practice safe heat safety. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for all local area sites for the most part throughout the day and evening. Can't rule out a few hours of MVFR along the I-35 corridor mid morning. Otherwise, light and variable winds are forecast for this morning with a northeast to east flow dominating the I-35 corridor for most of the day and a light and variable wind flow at KDRT through the evening. MVFR cigs are anticipated for the I-35 corridor by midnight tonight and continuing overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 74 92 77 / 50 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 74 91 77 / 50 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 72 91 75 / 50 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 87 72 92 76 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 74 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 73 91 76 / 30 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 87 72 92 76 / 30 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 73 91 76 / 50 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 74 89 77 / 70 10 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 74 91 77 / 40 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 73 91 77 / 60 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ209-222>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...17 ####018004065#### FXUS63 KPAH 161143 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 643 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon and tonight, followed by hot, humid, and very breezy conditions on Wednesday. - An area of thunderstorms is expected to move southeast across much of the region Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts will be possible, especially along the Interstate 64 corridor. - More showers and thunderstorms are possible (40-80%) Thursday and Thursday night with the best chances in west Kentucky. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds will be possible in the afternoon and evening, especially in west Kentucky. - Dry conditions are expected to end the work week, with cooler temperatures and less humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 A mid/upper-level disturbance will bring a small chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of the Quad State this afternoon and evening. Moisture return will be extremely limited which will hamper instability, with SBCAPE struggling to climb above 500J/kg. Bases will likely be well above 850mb. Coverage is likely to be widely scattered with the best chances over the Ozark Foothills. SPC has removed the Marginal Risk of severe from the entire Quad State for today, but given the deep mixed layer and limited moisture, the storms should be outflow dominated with some gusty winds possible. A strong storm system will bring another round of significant severe weather to central and northern Illinois on Wednesday. Very strong wind fields are expected thanks in part to highly anomalous 850mb flow (30 year return interval). This will lead to very strong south southwesterly winds across most of the Quad State Wednesday afternoon and evening. A Lake Wind Advisory will definitely be needed, and portions of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana may need a Wind Advisory for 40 mph gusts in the late afternoon and through much of the evening. The strong winds will also bring a rapid return of hot and humid conditions with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and dewpoints climbing up to 70 degrees. There is some potential for the storms to our northwest Wednesday afternoon to form into a line which would move southeast along the I-64 corridor through the evening. Damaging winds would be the primary concern, but a few brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected along and ahead of a cold front Thursday and Thursday night. There should be enough flow aloft to support some severe storm potential in the afternoon and evening, especially over west Kentucky. Damaging winds would be the primary concern. With the cold front pushing southeast of the area by early Friday, the Quad State should be dry and cooler, with less humidity to end the work week. More unsettled weather is expected possibly beginning as early as Saturday afternoon and continuing through next Tuesday. Multiple rounds of convection are possible in this period, but the timing and intensity details are quite murky at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread southeast across the region this afternoon and early evening. TSRA is most likely in the north and west. A brief period of MVFR or lower conditions is possible with any TSRA. Otherwise, southwest winds may gust to around 15kts at the northern sites this afternoon. Winds will be light tonight and some fog development will be possible, especially in areas that receive rainfall this afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS ####018011277#### FXUS63 KDLH 161144 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 644 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/storms will become localized to northwest Wisconsin today. Sunshine and dry weather will move in from the west. - Rain and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Totals from 0.5"-1.0" with locally higher amounts are possible. - Temperatures remain on the cool side through the week, then warming up a bit into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 114 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 This Morning and Today: Low pressure continues to pass through with clouds and scattered showers ongoing. The back end of the showers are located over north-central Minnesota right now, and these are expected to continue moving slowly to the east-southeast. Most of northeast Minnesota should see clearing skies this morning with showers making their way into northwest Wisconsin. They will eventually start to move east of Price county in the early afternoon. With some diurnal heating, a few thunderstorms could pop up there. Instability is expected to be just a few hundred J/kg though, these should easily remain sub-severe. With drier air moving in today, relative humidity is expected to fall into the 30-35% range for northeast Minnesota and inching into northwest Wisconsin. Wind gusts are expected to remain around or below 20 mph, so fire weather concerns are relatively low, but non-zero for this afternoon. Wednesday Rain and Thunderstorms: Only subtle changes were made from the previous forecast with regard to Wednesday's spring/fall-like system. The track this storm takes will be pretty crucial for who does and does not see much rain from this. We should see a good swatch of moderate/heavy rainfall amounts that, for the most part, should hover in the 0.5"-1.0" range. This will be most likely across northwest Wisconsin with the current track. Locally higher amounts are possible with PWATs locally exceeding an inch. The track has maybe shifted ever so slightly south when looking at the mean, but there's enough spread between model members yet that subtle changes could still happen. Impact-wise, we can generally use the rain, so this should be beneficial in that respect. Most of the favorable instability for any severe weather is still likely to remain south, but if there was a subtle shift north, a few parts of northwest Wisconsin could see a small chance for stronger storms (mainly Price county). The rest of the forecast is largely unchanged, so please see the previous discussion for more information. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Rest of Today - Tonight: High temperatures top out around normal for mid-June this afternoon in the mid to upper 70s, and slightly cooler immediately near Lake Superior for the Twin Ports and North Shore. Winds are also fairly breezy out of the west at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph, though become light this evening and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop this afternoon in association with daytime heating and shortwave energy moving in aloft ahead of a surface cold front approaching the region from southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. Most of these storms should be fairly short duration and pulsey in nature due to weak effective bulk shear of 15-25 kt. With that said, steep low-level lapse rates, 300-800 J/kg of MLCAPE, and mid-level lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km set up a parameter space where a few stronger storms could be capable of up to penny size hail and localized downburst winds of 40- 50 mph. The potential for a few stronger storms lingers through early evening, but should diminish around sunset. Scattered showers and a few embedded, general thunderstorms continue overnight as a surface low pressure gradually passes southeast through the Northland. Tuesday: The surface low pressure will be in NW WI on Tuesday morning and exit to our southeast Tuesday afternoon/evening, so shower and isolated non-severe storm activity will also end from NW to SE Tuesday, with the best precipitation coverage in NW WI associated with the deformation band on the NW side of the low pressure system before precipitation comes to an end. The rest of Tuesday will shape up to be a mix of clouds and sun along with cooler high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s away from Lake Superior and slightly cooler immediately near the lake. Northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph are also forecast for daytime Tuesday, but again drop off and become light towards sunset Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Tuesday Night - Thursday: By Tuesday night/early Wednesday, an Alberta Clipper-like system is forecast to skirt along the southern portions of the Northland and bring a high likelihood (70-100%) for rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to areas along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor. There will to be an area of drier air to the northern side of this system, so the gradient in precipitation on the north side of the system should be sharper. Precipitation starts as early as Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as there will be some drier low-level air to initially overcome first. Precipitation then continues throughout Wednesday and ends from west to east Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, though some cold air advection/cyclonic flow showers could also develop on an isolated to widely scattered basis with daytime heating on Thursday. As of now, the best rainfall potential would be along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor, with the best potential for rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" being from the Brainerd Lakes east into NW WI. However, there is still some model spread regarding where the sharp cutoff in precipitation and rainfall amounts would occur in far northern MN. Regarding severe weather potential for Wednesday, the large majority of ensemble member surface low tracks remain south of the Northland, which would also keep the effective warm sector and pool of adequate instability for strong to severe storms south of the Northland. This aligns well with the area of "Marginal" in the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook also being south of the Northland. Outside of showers and storms, Wednesday and Thursday will be on the cooler side, with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s on Wednesday and mid 60s to around 70 degrees on Thursday. Strong onshore flow on Wednesday should push the cooler high temperatures in the upper 50s into the Twin Ports area and into portions of the North Shore. The strong onshore flow will also likely lead to a high rip current risk for Twin Ports beaches, so a Beach Hazard Statement will also likely be needed on Wednesday. Friday - Next Weekend: The general mid and upper-level pattern for Friday into this coming weekend is for ridging to develop in the western CONUS and troughing across the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast, leaving the Upper Midwest in a northwest flow pattern with occasional shortwave energy moving through, though ensemble members are in disagreement in the timing and amplitude of these features. Given the uncertainty, have maintained the periodic 10-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms from the NBM in the forecast for Friday through Sunday. A slight warming in the 850 mb temperatures next weekend should also push high temperatures closer to normal (low to upper 70s). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail across the Northland this morning with some pockets of MVFR to IFR ceilings with areas of showers. Showers across northeastern Minnesota are expected to diminish over the next few hours while lingering and possibly increasing in coverage across northwest Wisconsin. This will bring MVFR ceilings to HYR through early afternoon. VFR conditions then return for all this afternoon before ceilings return this evening into tonight as the next system starts to move in. INL and BRD will see the activity first with it spreading across the remainder of the terminals by 12z Wednesday or perhaps a little after. Winds will be breezy from the northwest today with gusts to 15 to 20 knots before becoming light and variable tonight. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 114 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Winds are expected to be largely light and variable today and into tonight. Going into Wednesday, gusty east to east-northeast winds are expected to develop as low pressure passes by to the south. Winds are expected to get gusty as a result, especially around the head of the lake. We'll have about a 20-30% chance for seeing some gales, but for the most part, we are looking at potential for widespread Small Craft Advisories being needed due to 20-30 kt wind gusts. Wave heights may reach 3-5 ft around the Twin Ports as well. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany these strong winds at times on Wednesday. Winds are expected to become lighter fairly quickly Wednesday night with a wind shift to north/northwesterly following a cold front. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 114 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 As low pressure moves east today, expect clearing and drying conditions in northeast Minnesota and into parts of northwest Wisconsin. Min RH today is expected to fall into the 30-35% range for most of these places, and some locally lower RH can't be ruled out (20% chance). Winds will be a little blustery from the northwest with gusts to around 20 mph. With this forecast, we are just shy of near-critical fire weather conditions for the day. We will monitor in case winds end up being higher or RH lower, but given recent rains, steep drops in RH aren't too likely. Winds are expected to lighten up quickly around sunset with RH recovering overnight as well. A rainy system late tonight through Wednesday night is likely to drop 0.5"-1.0" of rain (perhaps some locally higher amounts possible). The best chances for appreciable rainfall accumulation will be northwest Wisconsin and perhaps inching into east-central Minnesota. There may be a fairly sharp gradient roughly along the US-2 corridor where not nearly as much rain may fall to the north (though a few tenths of an inch of rain will be possible). Thunder is possible with the rain, but severe weather is not expected at this time. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JDS DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...BJH MARINE...JDS FIRE WEATHER...JDS ####018004612#### FXUS61 KPBZ 161144 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 744 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the latest forecast. Continuing to monitor the potential for severe weather late Wednesday into Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry today, with scattered showers tonight 2) Potential for severe storms late Wednesday into Thursday 3) Shower chances Friday, then dry Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather is expected again today as high pressure moves east across the region. Warmer temperatures are expected, though readings will still be around 5 degrees below average for this time of the year. A shortwave trough is then expected to advance eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight. Scattered showers are expected with the approach and passage of the trough, though overall moisture is limited. There could be a thunderstorm as well, though instability is also expected to be minimal. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong surface low is progged to track across Michigan into southern Ontario late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The low's associated warm front is also expected to lift north across the Upper Ohio Valley region during that time. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase with the approach and passage of the warm front. A strong low-mid level jet is expected to overspread the region Wednesday night. Wind speeds at 850mb are progged at 55-65 kt, with 50-60kt at 700 mb. Shear from 0-6km is expected to range from 60-70kt, with MU CAPE 500-1000 j/kg Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. After the initial passage of the warm front, additional convection is likely overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning along the low level jet axis, and a possible pre cold frontal trough. Most available CAMS indicate thunderstorms continuing across the region as they move east overnight, but differ on specific details. Even if instability diminishes, the shear and strength of the jet should be enough to maintain some severe weather potential Wednesday night into early Thursday. Damaging wind and tornadoes are possible with speed/directional shear resulting in curved hodographs. Hail will also be possible. The low is expected to continue to track to the NE across eastern Ontario on Thursday, pulling a cold front south across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected along the front, though timing and speed of redevelopment is in question. Earlier convection will likely affect the potential redevelopment of storms on Thursday. At this time, ensemble model progs indicate the greatest instability should be from near PIT and areas south, though uncertainty exists due to the factors listed above. Shear remains high (0-6km 60-70kt)with strong flow aloft continuing. Again, damaging wind and tornadoes would be the main hazards. In addition to the severe weather potential, there is some potential for locally heavy rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday. Rapid storm motion with the strong flow aloft could be a limiting factor, though any training of storms could result in localized flooding. Current NBM probabilities of 1 inch of rain currently range from 20-40 percent. KEY MESSAGE 3... Another upper trough is expected to cross the region Friday, maintaining scattered showers/possible thunderstorms. Building high pressure should return dry weather to the region for Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Largely VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. A scattered cumulus field of 5-6 thousand feet is forecast to develop beneath a deck of higher clouds ahead of the next approaching shortwave. This wave should bring mid-level clouds and scattered showers to the region overnight. Included VCSH mention for most TAF sites, save MGW. Minimal instability could result in an isolated thunderstorm, but chances are too low for TAF inclusion. Outlook... Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday, with a potential for severe storms as well. Scattered showers and localized restrictions are possible Friday with a crossing shortwave trough. VFR returns Saturday under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...CL