####018006036#### FXUS65 KPSR 260512 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1010 PM MST Thu Apr 25 2024 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .SYNOPSIS... Breezy to windy and relatively cool conditions will continue through Saturday. The windier day will be Friday. There will be a chance of showers over portions of south-central Arizona Friday night and Saturday morning, mainly over higher terrain areas. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be light. A significant warming trend ensues Sunday through Tuesday with little change Wednesday and Thursday. That will mean desert highs well into the 90s for the workweek with readings close to 100 at some spots by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... There is a sizable short wave centered over AZ with a potent vort max within it over northeast AZ. That feature generated shower and storm activity over western AZ early this morning with convective showers developing over the northern half of AZ. Follow-on convective showers associated with a cold pool aloft continue to be limited to FGZ's forecast area. The short wave will continue to weaken with time as it tracks northeastward and largely be out of AZ by 00Z this afternoon. For our forecast area, the most noticeable impact is breeziness coupled with cooler temperatures. 24 hour temperature trends early this afternoon are running roughly 5-10 degrees cooler. Some areas, most notably Imperial County, have been experiencing strong winds where the surface pressure gradient is best. As the wave weakens and moves further away, the flow aloft will also weaken leading to a temporary weakening of winds. The approach of another wave from the Pacific northwest along with terrain effects, will lead to restrengthening of winds there and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for later this afternoon and evening. After something of an overnight and morning lull, strong winds develop again Friday afternoon and evening. In fact, much of Imperial County as well as western Joshua Tree N.P. and some higher terrain portions of southern Gila County have anywhere from 60-100% probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph. Thus, a Wind Advisory is in effect. Elsewhere will still be windy but not as strong. Winds won't be as strong Saturday but still breezy to locally windy. This second system will have a bit better potential to produce rain for our area (more widespread chances over northern AZ). But, precip chances will be limited mainly to higher terrain and foothill locations of south-central AZ Friday night and Saturday morning. Precipitation, if any, will be light. In fact, the 90th percentile of the NBM 12 QPF ending 12Z Saturday is less than one tenth of an inch for the lower elevations up to a quarter inch for above 4000ft). Very localized spots could see more if a thunderstorm passes over but thunderstorm potential is less than 20% (less than 10% lower elevations). Snow flurries could be seen as low as 6000ft with accumulations above 6500 ft. With the exit of the second system later Saturday, a significant warming trend ensues Sunday through Tuesday with little change Wednesday and Thursday. That will mean desert highs well into the 90s for the workweek with readings close to 100 at some spots (incl. Greater Phoenix) by midweek. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Periods of gusty afternoon/early evening winds will be the primary weather concern through Friday night under FEW-SCT midlevel decks. Confidence is good wind directions will revert to light easterly after midnight, however directions should veer back to S/SW quickly by late Friday morning with gusts progressively strengthening during the afternoon. By late afternoon, gusts reaching a 25-30kt range should be common. Isold SHRA/TSRA across northern AZ should decay before reaching terminals Friday evening, however there is a remote chance (less than 20%) that a residual SHRA and outflow descends into the Phoenix metro. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Strong, gusty W/SW winds will be the main weather concern through Friday evening under clear skies. Gusts should generally relax during the overnight hours, however stronger gusts should resume fairly quickly Friday afternoon. Widespread 20-30kt gusts should become common with KIPL likely experiencing gusts above 35kt at times late Friday afternoon/evening. As a result, lofted dust and regionally reduced slantwise visibilities are possible, though not specifically mentioned at the surface at any particular TAF site. && .FIRE WEATHER... A period of enhanced winds continues through Saturday with portions of southeast CA and southern Gila County seeing very strong winds at times (mainly Friday). Fortunately, RH values are expected to remain high enough (MinRH 20-30%) to avoid critical thresholds during the time of strongest winds. RH trends down Saturday over the lower elevations (MinRH 10-20%) but winds are not expected to reach critical thresholds. Higher RH values (MinRH 25-35%) linger over south-central AZ Saturday. A significant warming trend takes place Sunday through Tuesday with little change Wed-Thu. RH trends down as well with MinRH bottoming out around 10-15% by Tuesday (little change through Thursday). MaxRH bottoms out around 25-45% by Wednesday. Winds next week will be lighter. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight MST Friday night for AZZ557-558. CA...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to midnight PDT Friday night for CAZ560-563-565>567. Wind Advisory until midnight PDT Friday night for CAZ562. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJ AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...AJ ####018005411#### FXUS61 KBTV 260512 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 112 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue across the region through Friday night, resulting in clear skies, light winds, and comfortable temperatures. Another chilly night is anticipated tonight with lows mid teens to upper 20s, followed by temperatures warming into the 50s to near 60 degrees on Friday. The next chance of showers arrives Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 109 AM EDT Friday...Watching temperatures slowly radiate out. Things are presently on track, but dewpoints are slightly higher than last night. So we'll see if we tumble quite as much as last night. Previous Discussion...Sfc analysis places 1030mb high pres over the eastern Great Lakes with clear skies and light winds expected tonight. Have basically copied last nights lows for tonight into the fcst with values ranging from mid teens to mid/upper 20s, coldest NEK/SLK and warmest Lake Champlain. For Friday little change is anticipated with clear skies and light trrn driven winds. Did utilize the 10th percentile dwpts from the NBM as a small target of opportunity. This results in min aftn rh values in the 12% to 22% range with driest conditions acrs portions of the CPV and lower CT River Valley. Given the very dry air mass, feel temps wl overachieve, even after a cool start. Highs generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Another quiet and cool night is anticipated on Friday night, but with southerly winds and warming 925mb thermal profiles lows range from mid 20s NEK to mid/upper 30s wider valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Through the weekend upper level ridging and surface high pressure will largely dominate, but an approaching/weakening warm front and a weak embedded shortwave riding over the ridge will present the chance for some showers, the best being Saturday evening/night. Saturday will be mainly dry for most of the daylight hours before the aforementioned warm front approaches the region from the southwest late in the afternoon into the evening. With a very dry airmass in place, rising PWATs to around 1" Saturday night will initially go towards moistening the low/mid levels of the atmosphere, with light showers developing for a short period during the overnight hours. As the front decays over the region early Sunday, showers will diminish again for much of of the day, but weak shortwave energy rounding the ridge will present additional chances for showers and perhaps some embedded thunder during the late afternoon into early overnight hours, mainly across northern zones. By no means is either day a washout, you just might be dodging some showers here and there. Overall temps will be on the mild side of normal with highs both days in the 60s to around 70, and lows in the 40s east to 50s west Saturday night, and widespread 50s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Heading into next week the pattern remains fairly active but non- impactful with several frontal passages likely, bracketed by upper level ridging. Monday will be the pick of the weak with an upper ridge firmly overhead and temperatures warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. The first and weaker of 2 fronts arrives Monday night into Tuesday with showers likely Tuesday and maybe some rumbles of thunder. Dry conditions develop again for Tuesday night through midday Wednesday, with a stronger cold front passage on track for late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This front has the best potential for thunderstorm development right now based on progged CAPE up to 1000J/kg and colder 500mb temps near -20c rolling in behind the boundary. Nothing is jumping out as severe, but a few stronger cells could be possible. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Strong high pressure will maintain all VFR with no clouds or fog. Winds will follow tertiary flow patterns with light easterly drainage flows for BTV/RUT and calm conditions elsewhere overnight. A weak lake breeze is likely after 13Z so expect easterlies at PBG with light westerly winds for BTV. Upslope flow pattern after 13Z will drive light westerly for RUT. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: April 26: KMPV: 22/1967 KPBG: 23/1972 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 29: KBTV: 55/2013 KPBG: 57/1974 April 30: KPBG: 54/2004 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Boyd/Haynes/Taber SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Haynes CLIMATE...WFO BTV ####018005771#### FXUS61 KBGM 260512 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 112 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control with dry weather through Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below freezing again tonight. Saturday and Sunday, a warm front moves through bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Quiet and calm conditions continue tonight with temperatures starting to fall. Updated temperatures using a blend of current observations and the forecast. 7 PM Update... High pressure remains in control and the forecast is on-track. No changes needed at this time. 130 pm update... A large surface remains in control this period as it moves southeast to be centered over the area tonight then to the coast Friday and Friday night. The air with the high is cool and dry at the surface. Aloft a broad upper level trough over the northeast US will move east being replaced by a ridge centered over NY/PA Friday night. The low level flow out of the north and light this afternoon will become southwest Friday. Friday into Friday night warmer air will advect in. After 2 nearly clear days today and Friday, moisture will come in aloft late Friday night. With dry air, clear skies, and a calm wind temperatures fall tonight into the mid and upper 20s and lower 30s. Friday afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Friday night temperatures will be warmer again with lows mostly in the 30s. Winds will be light with dewpoint temperatures rising to around 30. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 2 PM Update No significant changes to the short term with this update. A line of showers still looks to push through the area on Saturday, weakening as it moves east into a drier airmass. Rainfall amounts will be light; less than a tenth of an inch. Any filtered sun in the morning gives way to mainly cloudy skies for the afternoon and evening. Highs are near average in the upper 50s to mid-60s with a steady south wind 8-15 mph. A warm front pushes through Saturday night, and model guidance continues to show elevated instability moving in...this will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast overnight. Milder with lows in the 40s to low 50s as south winds continue 5 to 15 mph. Upper level heights continue to rise on Sunday, but there will be weak waves and instability around. The highest MLCAPE values remain confined to areas west of I-81, where up to 500 J/Kg is possible. Therefore, it will be partly sunny with scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms around. Went above the deterministic NBM, closer to the 50th percentile data...which gives highs in the 70s to even around 80 in the deeper valleys of the central southern tier region. The warm front continues to lift north Sunday night, and there could be a few lingering showers along it. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and warm with lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 2 PM Update Monday will be the warmest day of the week, and of the spring season so far. The forecast is trending drier, with more upper level ridging and capping on Monday. Therefore, decided to again go closer to the NBM 50th percentile for highs, as we are yet to hit full green up and the increasing sunshine should boost temperatures. Look for highs well into the 80s for most locations...with perhaps some upper 70s in the higher elevations of the Catskills still. Dew points reach the lower 60s, so it will certainly feel quite warm to even hot out there in the afternoon. The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around 1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60's. In terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 30-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over the next several days. Model guidance is showing a zonal to transient ridge pattern over the area for midweek; this will keep things mainly dry, but another frontal passage is possible either Wednesday or Thursday depending on how the timing works out. Temperatures are trending warmer, still well into the 70s for both Tuesday and Wednesday...it looks to finally cool back down closer to climo by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR conditions expected at all terminals with mostly clear skies. Winds are light and variable overnight, with south easterly flow returning tomorrow morning. Outlook... Friday night...VFR. Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings. Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/TAC NEAR TERM...ES/MPK/TAC SHORT TERM...MJM/MWG LONG TERM...MJM/MWG AVIATION...ES/MPK/TAC ####018006856#### FXUS63 KEAX 260513 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1213 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to continue from now through Sunday. Some areas may see up to 2 inches of rainfall through Friday morning. High winds possible behind the rain this evening. Gusts to 50-60 mph possible. - A severe potential exists Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. All hazards are possible including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes and flooding. - Multiple rounds of heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and river flooding with most of the focus on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Showers due to isentropic ascent and low level forcing are expected linger through the evening. There is a MCV moving through western Missouri bringing showers and thunderstorms that will linger around for the next few hours. High winds approaching 50-60 mph are possible behind the rain as the system moves through the area. A shortwave trough is expected to enter the Great Plains region Thursday evening into overnight Friday. As winds begin to shift more to the south ahead of the system, return-flow from the Gulf will increase. As the low level jet intensifies, this will increase moisture and warm air advection setting the stage for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. These showers are not expected to be severe however, there a strong winds with gusty winds and small hail is possible. Multiple rounds of showers are expected through the morning into the afternoon. The best chance for strong to severe weather comes Friday afternoon into the evening. SPC has our area outlooked in a slight to enhanced risk. The enhanced risk is encompassing the northwest side of a line from Trenton to northern parts of the KC Metro while the majority of the state of Missouri is in a slight risk. With steady return-flow from the Gulf increasing instability, our dew point temperatures will be able to reach the mid 60s in addition to CAPE values ranging from 1,500-2,000 J/kg. As the trough continues to move closer to the area it will become more negatively-tilted showing signs of intensification. Storms will develop in a decently sheared environment, with over 40 knots of effective bulk shear, enhancing storm organization and creating the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Flooding is also a concern with PWATs ranging from 1-1.4 inches and training storms through the weekend. Limiting factors for Friday storms will be the track of the low. Latest CAMs suggest the low pushing further north than previous model runs. The timing of the trough will be important as it may move too fast initiating convection earlier and out of sync with the greatest instability. Additionally, Friday's convective activity may be slightly hindered due to the previous rounds of showers through early Friday morning. Saturday seems to be a better chance for severe weather with the passage of the next system. This system becomes more negatively- tilted as a branch of the jet rounds the base of the trough putting the region in the exit region of the upper level jet creating more upper level divergence and lift. Ahead of this trough there will be significant return-flow from the Gulf allowing the increase for moisture and instability. Compared to Friday's setup, Saturday will be more favorable for severe weather because of the absence of showers before the severe potential allowing day time heating to charge the environment. CAPE values will be allowed to build up to 3,000-3,500 J/kg with low-level lapse rates ranging from 8-10 degrees C/km which will further enhance the lower thermodynamic profile for severe storms. Bulk shear values ranging from 45-50 knots indicate an amply sheared environment which will help with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a possible tornado. Saturday's potential for severe looks to be during the afternoon into the late evening. With PWATs ranging from the 1.25-1.4 flash flooding and river flooding will be a concern especially with the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms. As the trough continues to moves to the northeast, there may be another potential for severe weather Sunday afternoon into the late evening. The threat seems to be to the east of the KC Metro. Instability and shear will be less than Saturday, but still good enough to initiate and organize thunderstorms. Whether or not the environment will be able to recover from the previous day's storms will be a huge determining factor. As colder, drier air pushes through the area behind the frontal boundary, this may help to counteract the instability which may stifle thunderstorm development for western Missouri. The extended outlook continues to remain active. Upper level flow orients more zonal; however, embedded shortwaves traversing the CONUS continue to bring shower and thunderstorm chances. Low level flow oscillates between southerly and easterly which overall maintains the inflow of warmer air and moisture keeping temperatures above normal and allowing the chances of convection to persist. Exact details of the magnitude of prospective storms remains uncertain as the extended outlook will be greatly affected by what occurs in the short term. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are redeveloping in an area of strong ascent that will affect all of eastern KS and western MO through the overnight hours. Have added several hours of prevailing TSRA to account for this. By the early morning hours, this activity is expected to shift to the east of the terminals with decreasing coverage across eastern KS and western MO. Will keep some precip mention going with a VCSH group through the morning into the afternoon. Forecast is fairly uncertain for the afternoon. But it looks like a few thunderstorms will develop within a moderately unstable airmass that develops. Given the uncertainty in coverage and whether storms develop at all, will carry a VCTS mention starting at 22Z. Winds will be easterly to southeasterly overnight and then become southeasterly to southerly through the day Friday. Wind gusts around 30kts are possible during the day Friday, excluding any thunderstorms that may affect the terminals. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...CDB ####018006172#### FXUS64 KLUB 260514 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 2:00 PM satellite imagery shows cloud cover over the eastern half of the forecast area except for most of the South Plains and the far southwest Texas Panhandle where clearing skies has occurred. Right now, the dryline is sitting just east of the Texas-New Mexico border but will begin to move east as the surface low in southeast Colorado deepens and begins to move northeast. This will help push the dryline closer to the Caprock Escarpment later this afternoon as well as sharpen the moisture gradient and enhance low-level convergence. Current thinking is that there will be two main windows for strong to severe thunderstorms: 1. This afternoon, but chances of storm initiation continue to diminish with thick cloud cover struggling to clear. Some CAMs have been hinting at a few isolated thunderstorms developing in the Rolling Plains this afternoon but these chances continue to decrease with high-res guidance backing off on initiation due to a strong capping inversion. Visible satellite has started to show some cumulus cloud development along the I-27 corridor where the persistent mid level cloud cover has begun to clear. It's possible with the dryline still sitting out near US Highway-385 oriented north to south and temperatures climbing into the 80s (87 degrees in Denver City), we could see some updrafts try and form despite the main energy and lift associated with the upper level trough still a bit farther to our west than we would like to see for thunderstorm development. Again, chances of storm development are very low this afternoon but not out of the question. 2. Late tonight after 10 PM, chances of thunderstorms increase significantly with model guidance consistently showing storms initiating just to the east of the I-27 corridor as a southerly low- level jet increases to around 40 knots. Initial storm development could pose a brief large hail threat but almost all model guidance has these storms congealing into a QLCS and quickly moving northeast across the Rolling Plains and the southeast Texas Panhandle. With this linear storm mode, strong winds of 70 to 80 mph may be possible, especially with fast storm motion and strong low-level wind fields mixing higher momentum down to the surface. As the low- level jet ramps up, an embedded tornado or two in the line of storms is possible. This complex of storms should clear out of the forecast area by around 3 AM CDT. Tomorrow will be warm with highs in the 80s and breezy southwest surface winds as the surface pressure gradient increases from the surface low to our north. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The dryline makes a welcome return Friday night over much of the Rolling Plains as moist southerlies amplify ahead of our next vigorous upper low. Toward daybreak Saturday, models agree in a subtle, lead shortwave trough around 700 mb ejecting from the western Permian Basin and across the Red River Valley by late morning. This wave should spur a round of elevated convection off the Caprock with some severe hail not out of the question given sizable ECAPE. Although the NAM is much faster and farther east with both this lead impulse and the dryline, will stick with the global models and their ensembles for better continuity at this time. On the heels of this impulse, subsidence overspreads the dryline around noon and this may keep the dryline quiet for much of the afternoon as it hangs up near or just beyond our eastern column of counties. Farther upstream, southwest flow will amplify as the upper low curls across northern NM and into eastern CO by the evening. One item of concern is a recent downturn in post- dryline winds from the MOS and deterministic models given weaker lows from the surface to 700 mb in southeastern CO. The NBM's higher winds (30+ mph) on the Caprock were left intact for now given the tendency for deeper mixing and stronger winds in these otherwise dynamic regimes, but this may need downward revision in later forecasts. Saturday night features a Pacific front sweeping the dryline east ahead of weaker westerly winds for Sunday under weakly cyclonic westerly flow. This flow trends weaker and more zonal by Monday ahead of a semi-dirty ridge forecast to reach our area by late Tuesday. Rich gulf moisture is progged to return area wide by Tuesday night and Wednesday with PWATs AOA 1 inch east of a dryline setting up across eastern NM. Add to this a subtropical jet with an embedded disturbance by Wednesday and 40-50% PoPs look credible given good support from global models. No meaningful cold fronts through the middle of next week will keep temps above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A complex of TS moving to the east and northeast across the Rolling Plains early in the TAF period could affect KCDS. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will veer early morning hours and then increase in speed after sunrise Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Critical fire weather conditions will expand across the rest of the South Plains and far southwest Texas this afternoon where a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 10 PM. The risk for rapid wildfire growth appears low due to ERC percentile values in the 50 to 65 percent range. Fire weather concerns will continue tomorrow due to dry and breezy conditions, but similar to today, ERC values should keep the threat of widespread fire weather threat low. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...07