####018005007#### FXUS63 KBIS 100910 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mild conditions expected today. Breezy northwest winds could gust to around 35 MPH today, mainly in the south, central, and east. - Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. Dry conditions expected for Saturday, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Sunday. Breezy west winds could continue for Saturday. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected next week, as well as near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Clipper system looks to push across eastern portions of the state today, and bring a weak and mainly dry frontal passage. The main result of this will be some breezy northwest winds to much of southern, central, and eastern portions. The strongest winds aloft look to pass through during the morning hours, while pressure falls are generally found this afternoon. Thus stronger winds are not expected today, although gusts of 35 to perhaps 40 MPH are possible. Influence from the ridge to our east and poor jet dynamics aloft should maintain a mainly dry forecast today as well as generally clear to partly cloudy skies. This ridge may also be enough to maintain mild temperatures today, with little cooling expected from the mentioned frontal passage. With warm temperatures in the 70s, RH dropping into the 20s, and breezy conditions some increased fire weather concerns are possible today. Fuels still look green, and rate of spread looks on the modest side. Thus the overall fire weather threat should remain limited for today. An interesting note for tonight...the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a rare G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch due to an active sun ejecting multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) towards earth. This goes into effect tonight into Saturday. Timing will be key if northern lights are viewable during this event. However the forecast for tonight is mainly clear with diminishing winds and low temperatures in the 40s. This combined with a favorable moon phase will make ideal conditions for any sky gazers looking to catch a glimpse of northern lights. Those looking to do so should check the latest space weather conditions on the SWPC's website, and weather.gov for the latest weather conditions. A surface low then looks to move across southern Canada on Saturday. This puts ND in the warm sector with perhaps some breezy westerly winds. Temperatures could warm to near 80 degrees for some areas. As the day and evening progresses a weak front could enter into the north. This could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm, although dry air in place will make it difficult for precipitation to reach the ground. Thus limited PoPs on Saturday to less than 15 percent. There could be some more fire weather concerns on Saturday, although the green fuels will once again limit the overall fire weather threat. The weak front fully moves through Sunday with a return to northwest flow. Winds will diminish and become northerly, and temperatures will slightly cool yet remain mild. The northwest flow could open the door for a weak disturbance to move through during the afternoon and nighttime hours. Thus slight chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible Sunday through Sunday night. Clusters for next week still showing either a zonal flow or a northern trough flow aloft. The end result is near to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures, yet near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Deterministic models showing a surface low followed by this northern trough moving through earlier in the week. Depending how this setup perhaps more increased chances for precipitation are warranted, with even an isolated stronger storm possible as indicated by the CSU-MLP. Perhaps mid week a break in precipitation will be found before the next trough pattern sets up, although the different timing scenarios of this keeps near daily PoP chances in the forecast. Temperature spreads still remain large in this pattern, although still favor near to perhaps slightly above normal. This keeps highs in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s, and lows generally above freezing and in the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Some sites may see a SCT to BKN layer of clouds tonight, mainly at VFR levels. A steady northwest wind could also be found tonight. Mainly clear skies and breezy to windy northwest winds are then expected for Friday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin ####018005303#### FXUS63 KLBF 100910 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm to near and above normal levels through the weekend and into early next week - No widespread frost/freeze anticipated for the next week - Generally lower end chances (<50%) of moisture periodically over the next several days with a couple times of greater potential... Sunday afternoon (south) and Tuesday evening (fairly widespread) - Severe weather threat remains low for the time being && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Nebraska is caught between a closed upper low centered near the Great Basin and a deep trough over the Great Lakes, resulting in a relative minima of forcing aloft. At the surface, the state lies on the eastern periphery of high pressure spanning the Rocky Mountains. A low centered over the Upper Midwest will drag a weak cool front through the eastern stretches of the state today. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Today and tonight... Not much change synoptically is anticipated today as the upper low stays put near Sin City and the trough remains anchored over the Lakes. Despite the approaching cool front and a steady northwesterly breeze, weak warm air advection at H85 actually kicks in across the western CWA. Temp changes over the last 24 hours are noted at 3-4C in the west and about +1C to the east. Used a general model blend for max temps to line up near the NBM mean. Forecast values range form mid 60s northwest to lower 70s north central to mid 70s far southwest. A ribbon of mid-level moisture will also accompany the surface front as a weak impulse at H7 rounds the main trough. Not expecting any precip, aside from perhaps a quick sprinkle, with the fropa as soundings suggest near inverted-V soundings. Heading into tonight, the surface high expands across the northern Plains in the wake of the front. Clear skies and light west winds will allow for efficient boundary layer decoupling. The limiting factor into frost potential will be the westerly downslope flow at H85 and continued warm air advection. Most spots should hold in the upper 30s to lower 40s for min temps. Tomorrow into tomorrow night... The closed upper low drifts east to the Four Corners and begins to absorb into the main southern stream. While no significant surface features are nearby, precip chances increase later in the day and into the evening for southern Nebraska. Southerly low level return flow transitions to an upslope regime (mainly in CO/KS), but the overall steering flow directs that energy toward southwest Neb. Isentropic upglide takes hold by mid- late afternoon, and low level moisture advection increases toward nighttime, partly shown by dew points rising into the mid 40s. Most of the forcing should remain to the south/west of the CWA, but think a few rain showers or thundershowers should survive into areas near and south of I-80. As for temps, early sunshine and the southerly winds should help push highs into the mid/upper 70s for a good chunk of the CWA. Normal highs for this time of year are right around 70. Lows will be a bit milder than tonight due to increased cloud cover with values in the mid/upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The weather pattern becomes relatively more active the latter half of the weekend as the upper low shifts east further onto the High Plains. An accompanying surface low spins up in the lee of the Rockies and drags a trough across the central Plains. This combination, along with the increased moisture advection, should result in scattered showers and storms on Sunday, especially for areas south of Hwy 2. Thunder parameters of mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, MUCAPE <1000 j/kg, and deep layer shear <25 kts should limit the severe potential. The vicinity of the upper low will result in continued low end PoP (<30%) around on Monday, while a cold front presents a more significant and widespread shot of moisture on Tuesday. A return to low end PoP rounds out the workweek as a transient upper trough crosses the central Plains. For highs, values should stay in the 70s Sunday and Monday, but make a run for 80 on Tuesday as southerly flow kicks into gear before the front. The threat of frost and freeze appears low through next week as lows hold in the upper 30s or 40s. Given the average last 36F reading for North Platte is May 16 and for Valentine is May 20, any potential in the near future will be monitored closely. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hour period. Winds will be out of the northwest around 5 to 10 kts overnight and increase to 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Snively SHORT TERM...Snively LONG TERM...Snively AVIATION...Gomez ####018004865#### FXUS63 KMKX 100911 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 411 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of showers with possible embedded storms will move across srn WI this evening. Gusty winds are expected with the line but severe wind gusts are not expected. - Additional shower/storm chances at times (50% or less) later Sunday into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Today through Sunday night: Shortwave ridging is expected today ahead of a strong digging shortwave trough currently over srn Manitoba. At the sfc, wly winds will develop after high pressure moves east by afternoon and a wave of low pressure moves into nrn WI. Low level warm advection and the arrival of a thermal ridge late in the day should support temps 65-70F. The digging shortwave trough and cold front will provide well organized lift this evening. Although CAPE is very low, there is good agreement among CAMs and the HREF of a line of showers with possibly embedded storms to move across srn WI. The line of showers should be fairly high based given large dewpoint depressions, which will contribute to the expected gusty winds along the line. At this time it is unlikely the wind gusts would reach severe strength. Breezy northwest winds will then follow for Saturday as the low pressure area slowly moves across lower MI. Lingering cold air aloft may allow a few showers to develop over ern WI. High temps will range from the lower to middle 60s over ern WI to upper 60s over south central WI. Another high pressure area will shift across srn WI Sat evening followed by breezy swly winds for Sun. Strong low pressure will move across Ontario on Sun but a weaker wave of low pressure will move into the nrn Great Lakes. Its cold front will then settle south into srn WI Sun nt and possibly stall. A few weak vorticity maximums may aid the lift along the front during this time with pcpn chances up to 40 percent. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Monday through Thursday: Longwave troughing sloping from the Hudson Bay into the Atlantic and moisture streaming over the Canadian Rockies leads to several rounds of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin, as well as near normal temperatures. A lingering cold front on Monday combined with a developing low pressure system in the southern Plains may lead to showers lifting northward into southern Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday, clearing Tuesday night. Modeling is in agreement with WAA and a break in precipitation on Wednesday, with a Canadian-origin shortwave phasing with another southern Plains low on Thursday and bringing the next chances for precipitation and some gustier conditions. This time frame looks to be more favorable for thunderstorm development with surface WAA and a stronger frontal passage leading to increased lift and convective development. Ensembles indicate a small (approximately 10 percent) chance for CAPE values over 500 J/kg Thursday afternoon, with better chances for warming and increased instability going into next weekend. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Isolated ground fog will continue mainly south and west of Madison through 13Z. Otherwise sct-bkn040-050 will develop late this morning into the early afternoon over se and east central WI with lesser cloud cover over south central WI. A line of showers with embedded storms will then move across srn WI this evening with gusty winds expected. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure of 30.0 inches over northwest Wisconsin early this morning will move across Lake Michigan during the middle of the day. The light northerly winds this morning will back to southerly this afternoon. A wave of low pressure around 29.6 inches will then follow the high across northern Lake Michigan tonight then deepen slightly and slow down over northern lower Michigan on Saturday. It will also drag a cold front across the lake tonight. Modest southerly winds will shift to northwest with the frontal passage and continue through Saturday. Another high pressure area will then move across the lake Saturday evening with south winds returning and becoming breezy after it passes for Sunday. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018005330#### FXUS65 KTFX 100912 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 312 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm to near normal today, and well above normal over the weekend and into early next week. These above normal temperatures will lead to snowmelt from the most recent storm, which will lead to rising water levels on creeks and streams over the coming days. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday...A warm and relatively dry pattern is expected as upper level ridging over the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada is slowly suppressed through the period. Near normal high temperatures today will climb well above normal over the weekend, with temperatures peaking in the 70s on both Saturday and Sunday despite falling heights aloft. A fast moving disturbance within northwesterly flow aloft Saturday evening/night will bring a return chance for shower and even a few thunderstorms to the plains of Central and North Central Montana, with these shower and thunderstorm chances lingering into the day on Sunday across predominately eastern portions of Central and North Central Montana. Monday through Tuesday...Ensemble clusters are in relatively good agreement with a shortwave within initially zonal flow, and an associated Pacific front, digging east/southwest and over/across the Northern Rockies during the period. High temperatures ahead of the shortwave and Pacific front on Monday will once again warm well above normal and into the 70s, but fall back below normal and into the 60s on Tuesday. Surface winds will be on the increase through the morning hours on Monday ahead of the aforementioned Pacific front, becoming breezy and gusty during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. While the latest NBM probabilistic data does not support high winds materializing over this timeframe; most lower elevations across Southwest through North Central Montana have between a 20-50% chance of seeing wind gusts in excess of 35kts. Light precipitation is also expected to accompany and follow the passage of the Pacific front Monday afternoon/night, lingering into the day on Tuesday as the upper level disturbance digs into the Central Rockies. While widespread, heavy precipitation is not expected over this timeframe, NBM probabilistic data does support between a 40-70% chance for QPF amounts to reach or exceed 0.10" across most of Southwest through North Central Montana. Wednesday through next Friday...ensemble clusters diverge drastically throughout the period, with the main difference between the clusters being the timing of shortwave ridging and troughing. The multi-model ensemble favors a more zonal pattern, with temperatures near normal and daily chances for showers. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 1155 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 (10/06Z TAF Period) Skies will continue to clear through the overnight hours tonight as high pressure works in from the north. Given the recent rains, we will have to watch for some patchy fog, but we should have enough winds through the overnight hours to keep any fog development limited, though KBZN and KEKS may have a better chance for fog development, so I did include some BR in their TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Warning remains in effect for Clear Creek in North Central Montana through Saturday morning, with water levels expected to slowly fall from minor flood stage to action stage over this timeframe. Additionally, a Flood Watch remains in effect for the nearby Bears Paw Mountains from this afternoon through the weekend as warming temperatures and subsequent snowmelt runoff, and remaining runoff from rainwater, could push creeks and streams out of their banks. Further south across the Island Ranges of Central Montana (i.e. Highwood, Moccasin, Judith, Little Belt, and Snowy), increased snowmelt and subsequent runoff into creeks and streams is expected from Saturday through Monday as overnight temperatures and dewpoint temperatures remain above freezing. This runoff could result in waterways nearing bankful by Saturday night/Sunday morning; however, confidence was not high enough at this time to issue a Flood Watch, yet. None-the-less, those with interests along waterways prone to flooding from rapid snowmelt should still be prepared to take action should water levels begin to rise. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 68 42 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 74 45 77 45 / 0 0 10 10 HLN 71 41 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 64 33 73 40 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 62 27 66 30 / 10 10 10 0 DLN 66 36 74 40 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 72 46 77 48 / 0 0 10 30 LWT 62 38 70 41 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Sunday morning for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018004095#### FXUS65 KBYZ 100913 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 313 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday Night... High pressure over the western US will put the area under ridging to northwest flow through Saturday. Warm and mainly dry conditions can be expected. A few isolated showers are possible over the Bighorn Mountains on Saturday (15% chance), with increasing clouds Saturday night, ahead of a shortwave dropping in from the northwest. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s to near 70 degrees today, warming further into the 70s for Saturday. The upcoming warmer temperatures will melt much of the wet snow that fell at elevations between 6000-8000 feet this week. At this time we do not see a flood risk, but rivers/streams emerging from the foothills will likely see some rises this weekend. STP Sunday through Friday... Sunday will be a warm day with downsloping flow aloft. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above average in the mid 70s for most. Monday will start out similar to Sunday with highs in the mid to high 70s with downsloped clear skies. Late Monday will see a change as a low pressure system moves along the Canadian border dragging a cold front across the region. This will bring gusty winds and precipitation chances. Precipitation looks to move out by Tuesday evening with most of the region having a 20-30% chance of getting 0.25 inches. Tuesday will see breezy conditions as the front moves through and brings pressure rises. Most of the area has a 40-60% chance of getting a wind gust over 30 mph. Wednesday through the rest of the week there is much more uncertainty in the forecast. For Wednesday and Thursday, about 55% of models show ridging coming back to the area while 45% of models show troughing. Friday, about 40% of models show ridging with the other possibilities being troughing and zonal flow. With this much uncertainty and disagreement in the forecast it is difficult to pinpoint anything as ridging would generally bring cooler and wetter conditions with the ridging solutions bringing warmer and drier conditions. Currently though, even the troughing solutions aren't bringing much precipitation to the region leading to likely dry conditions Wednesday through Friday with 20-40% chances for precipitation each day. Temperatures will fall from the 70s Monday to 60s on Tuesday with the passage of the cold front. After that temperatures are favored to hold steady in the 60s though this could change with the pattern uncertainty. Winds could gust into the 20s mph Wednesday through Friday in the afternoon as lapse rates get steep enough to mix down winds. Torgerson && .AVIATION... The next 24 hours will be dry with mostly clear skies. Winds will be light for the most part though KBHK could see wind gusts into the 20s kts from about 15-00Z. Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 067 045/075 047/076 049/077 051/065 045/067 045/070 0/U 00/B 12/R 15/T 47/T 34/T 34/T LVM 063 038/072 044/075 047/074 046/063 041/065 044/069 0/U 00/U 01/U 15/T 36/T 24/T 34/T HDN 068 040/076 045/077 046/078 049/065 042/067 042/069 0/U 00/U 12/R 14/T 56/R 34/T 33/T MLS 069 043/076 048/074 047/078 049/066 043/066 043/068 0/U 00/B 13/R 13/T 44/R 23/T 32/R 4BQ 067 042/075 047/075 046/078 049/065 043/065 043/067 0/U 00/U 02/T 12/T 55/T 23/T 32/R BHK 067 042/075 045/073 044/077 046/066 040/064 040/066 0/U 00/U 02/R 13/T 44/T 23/R 22/R SHR 065 037/072 043/074 044/076 046/063 040/064 040/068 1/U 00/U 13/T 14/T 57/T 44/T 33/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings