####018007618#### FXUS63 KMPX 042040 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow and slick travel conditions likely along and north of I-94 Friday. Snow amounts of 1-3" are expected. - Another storm system will produce accumulating snow and travel impacts across southern MN on Saturday. - Sub-zero morning lows return for the end of the weekend, followed by yet another storm system with the potential for mixed precipitation early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Our first widespread sub-zero morning of the cold season saw temperatures dip as low as -15 or so across portions of central MN. Fortunately, the duration of the coldest air is rather short-lived thanks to an increase in southerly winds this afternoon. The center of the Arctic high that supported the early December cold blast has drifted southeast over the southern Great Lakes. Mid-level warm advection is ongoing within a tightening pressure gradient to the west of the surface high and south of a clipper currently digging into northeastern MN. Surface temperatures are inching closer to the double digits above zero with each passing hour and look to run in a non-dirunal pattern through the rest of the night. In other words, evening temperatures in the low teens will be cooler than the temperatures around daybreak Friday, which are forecast to be in the low 20s. Our attention turns to an active clipper train that is ongoing within the northwesterly flow aloft. Much of the precipitation associated with the aforementioned clipper will remain north of our forecast area tonight, though portions of western WI may see some flakes from this wave. Confidence has increased that a trailing clipper, currently crossing the International border over MT, will dig southeast across the Dakotas tonight and bring accumulating snow to the region tomorrow. There is still some uncertainty with the track of the clipper, as evidenced by the 12z guidance suite. Most of the HREF members and the operational RAP advertise the main swath of snow tracking along and north of I-94 through central MN. On the other hand, there are some guidance members (AIFS/operational Euro) which are a bit farther south with the main swath and place the main band of snow from say Swift county to the ESE through the heart of the Twin Cities. Despite this uncertainty in the exact track, the upward trend in QPF and deep saturation on forecast soundings has resulted in an uptick in the snow forecast (1-3") and PoPs (Now 70-80 percent across central MN) through the day tomorrow. Our snow forecast is a product of up to ~0.1-0.15" liquid in the main snow band and event SLR's ~15:1, which supports the 1-3" range. While somewhat muted, there looks to be at least some frontogenic component to the forcing in the 850mb level, so the potential for a localized band of 2-4" does exist (and right now looks to be most likely along the WFO MPX/DLH border. Snow is forecast to begins across west central MN shortly before daybreak and continue to spread east through the morning. Average snowfall rates between 0.25"-0.5"/hr (per the HREF) will support the potential for travel conditions to become slick through the morning. Snow will end from west to east tomorrow afternoon, but it is likely that locations under the heaviest band will still have some slick spots for the evening commute. Finally, forecast soundings across south/southwestern MN illustrate the loss of cloud ice in association with mid- level dry air. With synoptic lift present, we could see a localized freezing drizzle scenario develop. We have opted to leave any mention out of the grids this afternoon, however we'll treat this part of the forecast as a bit of wild card tomorrow. No headline is planned at this time, though we'll leave the potential for a short advisory on the table depending on what the evening/night shift observes in the 18z/00z model suites. The forecast remains active heading into this weekend as a Pacific influenced shortwave digs southeast along a baroclinic zone from MT towards IA. Guidance has come into better agreement with the anticipated track of the wave which supports a swath of accumulating snow from eastern SD/southwestern MN/northern IA. Since this system has more of a Pacific influence to it, it's no surprise to see higher moisture content resulting in a greater potential for accumulating snow. An initial call would support 3-5" of snow along I- 90, with amounts falling off to about a half inch to an inch as far north as the Twin Cities. Folks traveling south this weekend should keep an eye on the latest information as travel is likely to be impacted from falling/accumulating snow. The low is forecast to continue to the southeast towards the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, northwesterly flow will usher in another anomalous air mass from southern Canada which will drop surface temperatures below zero Sunday and Monday morning. It's likely that Sunday's afternoon highs will struggle to warm above the single digits! Our very active upper level pattern will send another storm system into the northern CONUS in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Mid- level warm advection of a thermal ridge will warm temperatures to near/above freezing at 925/850mb heading into Tuesday. Should these trends continue, the Tuesday/Wednesday system will likely have some p-type issues given the marginal nature of the thermal profiles. Plenty of time to better define the setup, but one things is for sure: Our forecast remains active and wintry through at least mid- December! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Clouds are beginning their approach ahead of our Clipper system. KAXN has already gone MVFR and KRWF should follow shortly. MVFR cigs will continue to spread east through this afternoon for our Minnesota terminals with south-southwesterly winds 10-15kts with occasional gusts up to 25kts. Winds decrease overnight to 10kts or less. Biggest change for this TAF set is that confidence has increased in some snow by tomorrow morning for most sites. Confidence is lower for KRWF and KMKT as the overall track for the Clipper basically sends it right down I-94. Timing has been a bit slower with the 12z models, so will need to monitor this for the next cycle to see if snow onset timing needs to be adjusted further. Expecting a solid chunk of the morning to be IFR with the potential for some TEMPO LIFR. Snow ends from west to east with winds turning to the northwest on the backside. KMSP...MVFR cigs are expected by this evening and will continue to fall overnight. Snow should hold off until after 12z, decided to go with a 14z start time. Guidance is still a little all over the board with start/end times, so went more pessimistic with the snow not ending until 21z tomorrow. This will be refined in the coming updates. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts. SUN...MVFR/-SN early, bcmg VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. MON...VFR, chc MVFR w/-SN. Wind S 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...Dye ####018003174#### FXUS63 KICT 042041 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 241 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures are likely for Friday and Saturday with colder temperatures forecast for Sunday before above normal temperatures return early next week. - Mostly dry conditions will prevail through the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Currently, there is a weak upper-level shortwave over Kansas with upper troughing over the southwest US approaching the Central Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure sits over the Midwest, stretching into Kansas and Oklahoma. Tonight, low temperatures will remain slightly below normal with lows in the lower 20s. On Friday, low-level downslope flow will help moderate temperatures bringing highs into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Warmer temperatures will continue into Saturday as low-level WAA keeps highs on Saturday afternoon in the upper 40s to lower 50s. By Saturday afternoon, an upper-level shortwave trough over SD/NE will move towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. The associated surface low will push south through Nebraska Saturday afternoon into eastern Kansas by Saturday night. Given southerly surface winds will advect some moisture into southeast Kansas Saturday night, low chances of drizzle will be possible late Saturday night in southeast KS. However, at this time, the ECMWF is the most optimistic model regarding this solution. Better precipitation chances will stay northeast of our area. The aforementioned surface low will push a cold front through our area by Sunday morning, bringing in another surge of cold air. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday with breezy northerly winds. Monday and beyond... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist in our area Monday and Tuesday as weak upper-level ridging sits over the western CONUS. The next upper-level trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains Tuesday night. Its associated surface low will move east from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night, keeping precipitation chances out of our area. A warming trend will start on Monday as close to normal temperatures return with highs in the 40s on Monday afternoon. Warmer than normal 850 mb temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, aiding in the return of above normal surface temperatures. Highs are expected to range from the lower 50s in southeast KS to the upper 50s in central and south-central KS on Tuesday, which is about 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Light winds and VFR will prevail across the area over the upcoming 24-hr period. A few flurries may impact southern KS through early/mid afternoon near the OK state line but no impact to our terminals is anticipated. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...MWM ####018003747#### FXUS63 KTOP 042042 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 242 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures moderate Friday and Saturday before another cool-down on Sunday, then another warm-up Tuesday and Wednesday. - There remains a low chance for light rain/snow Saturday night in northeast KS; otherwise weather looks dry through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 In the upper levels, broad troughing encompasses much of the CONUS with the northern stream energy pushing through the Northeast and the southern stream trough axis extending from Mexico's Baja Peninsula up through the southern Rockies. An upper ridge is sitting off the coast of the Pacific. Meanwhile at the surface, expansive high pressure has slowly been moving east today and is now centered in the IA/IL/WI vicinity early this afternoon. This high will continue to slide east tonight, allowing southerly low-level flow to spread east across the area as well. Despite clear skies, there should be just enough WAA and just enough wind off the surface to keep temperatures from getting as cold as they did this morning, though it will still be on the chilly side to start out Friday. Lows are forecast in the upper teens to low 20s, followed by highs approaching average values in the 40s thanks to the warmer air advecting into the area. A subtle disturbance passes through the northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest, which brings a weak sfc trough through the area, but this looks to have little impact on us aside from high clouds and a brief wind shift back to the north Friday night. Southerly low-level flow reestablishes itself Saturday ahead of the next embedded shortwave, which may have slightly more impact on our forecast area. Models have been back and forth on how far south this system and any associated precipitation will be. Overall the best synoptic forcing for ascent looks to be northeast of the area into Nebraska and especially Iowa, but the wave could still track south enough for northern parts of the area to see some brief rain and/or snow Saturday evening. NBM probabilities for measurable snow are generally 15% or less, with PoPs only slightly better at 20% or less. Even these "higher" numbers are mostly concentrated in Brown County with a dropoff as you go southwest. What is more certain is the incoming cold air behind the system. Lows Sunday look similar to what we should see tomorrow, but with highs topping out in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A general warming trend then ensues as high pressure from Sunday departs east. By Tuesday, a downslope component to the low-level winds should help boost temperatures further, and most of the area has a good shot at seeing 50 degrees! There could be another system within the northwest flow aloft that brings another cold front through the area mid-week, but large temperature spreads (20+ degrees) by Thursday lead to low confidence in how impactful that front may be and how long the warmth will last. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue with clear skies and light winds. Winds are in the process of switching towards the south as of forecast issuance, and should remain there through most of the period. A weak boundary will allow winds to turn more to the southwest at the very end of this period and beyond. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha ####018003572#### FXUS63 KDVN 042045 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 245 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued very cold this evening into early Friday morning with wind chills in the single digits and teens below zero! - Snow chances increasing Saturday night into Sunday morning, with 40-70% probabilities of 2+" north of Highway 34. - Active northwest flow next week, with several clippers tracking near the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 After record low temperatures for some locations this morning, we'll be a little "warmer" tonight due to steady southerly winds limiting decoupling near the surface. Temperatures will likely fall quickly this evening into early tonight, then slowly rise late as the southerly flow becomes established. Latest forecast has lows in the single digits above and below zero, coldest in the eastern counties. Wind chills again will be quite cold with min values in the single digits and teens below zero...brrr! A mid-level shortwave will track across the Midwest on Friday with an attendant surface trough expected to move through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois during the late evening to overnight period. This system is moisture starved, but could result in patchy light snow/flurries across the northern to northeast counties, or even a little freezing drizzle due to a loss of in-cloud ice (precip chances: 10-20%). Overall, it looks like a low probability and little to no impact event. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Saturday-Sunday: A clipper system is expected to impact the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. NBM probabilities for accumulating snow have continued to trend higher, now between 40-70% for 2"+ (roughly north of Highway 34). And the probabilities for 4"+ are between 20-40% near and W/NW of the Quad Cities. The EC ensemble has been consistent in showing a band of 0.20-0.30"+ of QPF and other model guidance as been trending toward the wetter and slightly stronger EC scenario. Saturday's forecast highs are in the mid/upper 20s, with colder values in the teens/20s expected Sunday behind the clipper. Early Next Week: Cold start to the work week Sunday night, with another 1034mb surface high overhead. These temperatures will not be as cold as the current air mass this morning, with 850mb temps 4C warmer. Still could see a few locations with sub- zero lows Monday morning. Two more clippers to track over the upper Midwest (one Monday night-Tuesday and another 24hrs later) with a general consensus keeping any appreciable snow potential north across MN/WI. We would instead see a warm draw of above freezing temps move into the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday, with a rain/snow mix possible. LREF (100 member ensemble) is showing 40-70% probabilities of 850mb temps above 0C Tuesday and Wednesday supporting above freezing highs. Continue to monitor the forecast for any updates and trends with these passing systems. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR is expected through the period with steady south winds between 5 to 15 kts. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Uttech/Gross AVIATION...Uttech