####018006929#### FXUS64 KAMA 161145 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 645 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 - A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the eastern and portions of the central Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. If thunderstorms can develop, there is a very low chance for a thunderstorm to become strong to severe. - Widespread 100 to 110 degree temperatures are expected for the combined Panhandles on Wednesday. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon. - Thunderstorm chances return Thursday night and Monday. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain but appears very low at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 An isolated storm has formed northeast of Guymon this morning and is moving southeast. The environment is not supportive for a severe storm this morning but some light rain and lightning may occur with this cell before it dissipates. Looking towards the afternoon into the early evening, strong enough heating combined with a plume of moisture may result in isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Panhandles. Confidence in storms forming is still not the highest, but more CAMs are starting to suggest that storm initiation may occur. Sufficient instability and shear will be in place that if a storm does form, it could be severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. If anything does form, it will likely lose strength early this evening as temperatures begin to cool down. Muscha && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Some rain or elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing in the northeastern Panhandles Tuesday morning, but that should dissipate after sunrise. Southwesterly low-level winds will draw in warmer air from New Mexico and we'll see temperatures warm into the low to mid- 90s across the Panhandles. In the presence of weak mid-level forcing (at best), perhaps a weak surface trough, and temperatures potentially reaching convective temperature, there is a low chance for thunderstorms to develop across the eastern Texas Panhandle. CAMs and mesoscale models show show anywhere from 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in this area along with 35-40 kts of effective shear in the mid to late afternoon. These factors, combined with favorable directional shear, would favor supercells with a threat for large hail up to the size of ping pong balls and 60 mph wind gusts. However, again, confidence is low in the potential for storms to develop given weak forcing at best. Thus, PoPs around 10% seems reasonable. Activity should weaken after sunset. The Panhandles will be on the northeastern periphery of an upper- level ridge that is very tilted off to the northwest. Very warm 850mb temperatures will advect into the Panhandles throughout Wednesday. By the late afternoon, 850mb temperatures are expected to range from 34C (93F) to 37C (99F), which is near or above the climatological maximum for that date. This will support widespread 100+ degree high temperatures on Wednesday. A caveat is in the eastern Panhandles where there are some indications that low-level moisture will stick around into the afternoon, perhaps throughout the day, which could cause temperatures to underachieve but heat indices to overachieve. Regardless, the issuance of a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the southern Texas Panhandle. A surface low will develop in eastern New Mexico throughout Wednesday before creeping into west Texas Wednesday night and strengthens. The cyclonic flow around the surface low will cause low- level moisture to push back into the southeastern Texas Panhandle as the northerly winds begins to draw cooler air into the Panhandles. Winds will become breezy overnight as this surface low develops, and we will see cooler temperatures move in from the north throughout the night. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Much cooler air will filter in throughout Thursday behind a cold front. In fact, high temperatures are likely to occur in the morning for portions of the central/southern Texas Panhandle if the frontal timing holds up. We could see some showers or elevated thunderstorms Thursday night across the southeastern Texas Panhandle, but forcing is weak which limits confidence. If thunderstorms do develop, forecast soundings indicate noteworthy elevated instability, ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg on the more conservative side (GFS) to 2000-3000 J/kg. Hail and lightning would be the most likely hazards, but generally weak shear should limit the magnitude of the hail threat. An upper-level trough will move into the Western US on Friday which pumps a ridge over the Intermountain West. Temperatures will warm back up on Friday, but especially on Saturday when highs in the mid/upper-90s will return. Zonal flow aloft will become present on Sunday with a flattened upper-level ridge over southwest Texas and northwestern Mexico. Perturbations in the zonal flow may provide enough forcing for thunderstorms to develop, but there is some question about the availability of mid-level moisture. If a solution like the GFS verifies, which has significantly dry 700mb air advecting into much of the area, then thunderstorms would be unlikely Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures may cool somewhat going into Monday, but still looking at widespread 90s across the area. Thunderstorm chances look better than Sunday given favorable mid-level moisture advection. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 VFR conditions are forecast at the terminals with this TAF issuance. Light wind out of the south to southwest is forecast during the day at the sites. The wind will increase starting around 06z as the low level wind increases and gusts could mix down to the surface with gusts upwards of 30 kts possible. If gusts do not mix down, LLWS will occur, but am leaning on the side of stronger gusts at the surface with this forecast. There are very low (10-15 percent) chances for a thunderstorm to form or be near KGUY this afternoon into early this evening, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...05 ####018013203#### FXUS65 KABQ 161146 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 546 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 532 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Hot, dry, and breezy-to-windy conditions that increase the risk of rapid fire spread across the northwest plateau today, will expand to more of Western and central New Mexico Wednesday as winds strengthen further. - Hazardous heat is forecast in the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley Wednesday, and also across the east-central and southeast plains, as high temperatures challenge daily records. - Thursday and Friday, showers and thunderstorms will increase the risk of cloud-to-ground lightning and mostly dry microburst wind gusts with blowing dust west of the central mountain chain, and wetter storms with a low risk of flash flooding below burn scars from the central mountain chain eastward. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Very dry northwest winds will strengthen today and high temperatures will climb 2 to 9 degrees above 1991-2020 averages in the wake of the upper level trough that clipped northeast NM on Monday. Hotter, drier, and windier conditions will then develop Wednesday as northwest flow aloft strengthens south of an upper level trough exiting the northern Rockies. High temperatures Wednesday will reach 5 to 15 degrees above average with record and near record readings over central and eastern parts of the forecast area. The heat will become hazardous Wednesday afternoon in the central valley as readings peak in the low to mid 100s from Albuquerque southward, and also across the east central and southeast plains. Dangerous heat is forecast in Roswell where the mercury should reach around 110 F. With this forecast package we will issue an Extreme Heat Watch for Chaves County Wednesday. There will also be fire weather concerns both days. Will continue the Red Flag Warning in effect for the Northwest Plateau this afternoon and early evening, where humidities will plummet into the single digits as northwest wind gusts peak as much as 40 mph. The strong northwest winds will spread to more of western and central NM on Wednesday, and as far east as the Central Highlands, as humidities bottom out in the single digits almost areawide. The highest northwest wind gusts Wednesday afternoon will probably reach around 45 mph near Navajo Lake and on I-40 around Clines Corners. There is a 15-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon over the southwest mountains including Glenwood, where a weak upper level trough moving inland over southern CA will steer some elevated subtropical moisture. Some of these cells will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts to 50 mph with little or no rainfall reaching the surface. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The extreme heat will be shortlived, since a moist backdoor front will dive southward through the eastern plains Wednesday night, then westward into the central valley on Thursday. With a ~ 1012 mb surface high pressure system on the western Great Plains propagating it, the front is likely to produce wind gusts up to 45 mph on the eastern plains late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, then east wind gusts below canyons opening into the central valley up to 40 mph on Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to fall as much as 19 degrees from Wednesday's readings on the eastern plains, and a few to 5 degrees central and west. The low level moisture increase with the front, and modest amounts of elevated moisture streaming over the forecast area from the southwest with the approaching upper level trough, should enable isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of the central mountain chain, and along and south of a line from Gallup to Albuquerque. There should be quite a few gusty virga showers along and west of the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon and evening, with some dry lightning in the mix. Wetting showers and storms look to favor areas east of the central mountain chain, with operational runs of deterministic models (that won't be incorporated into the NBM until later today) depicting most of the activity over the east central and southeast plains. A southeasterly return flow of low-level moisture will continue to increase over eastern areas Thursday night and Friday, then the upper level trough will finally pass overhead on Friday and Friday evening producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, except for numerous cells over and just east of the south-central mountains, and more isolated activity farther west. Once again, gusty virga showers and dry storms currently look to be the most common mode of convection west of the central mountain chain on Friday, except for storms with small wetting footprints in the mountains. On Saturday, a significant downtick in thunderstorm coverage is expected at least in the west, and probably also in the east with the upper trough finally shifting east of NM. However, the operational runs of the latest deterministic models suggest there will still be enough low level moisture for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday. Wetting footprints should be pretty small, since a drier upper level trough crossing the southwest US will begin to steer significantly drier air over NM by Saturday afternoon. The upper trough will strengthen the flow aloft over western NM Saturday afternoon causing fire weather concerns to redevelop west of the central mountain chain. By Sunday, fire weather concerns may spread to include eastern areas as well, depending on how much the flow aloft strengthens. The drier air Saturday and Sunday should enable high temperatures to climb a few to several degrees above average. Models are in surprisingly good agreement that a moist backdoor cold front will plunge southwestward through the eastern plains Sunday night, and into the central valley by Monday morning, enabling showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon, with the potential for spottier and drier activity as far west as the continental divide. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 A few patches of low clouds producing MVFR and low VFR conditions on the eastern plains early this morning will burn off during mid morning. Otherwise, much drier air will arrive today, enabling temperatures to climb several degrees above 1991-2020 averages. This will make density altitude and important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain. In addition, northwest winds will become gusty over central and western areas this afternoon, with the strongest gusts reaching around 35 KT in the Farmington and Navajo Lake area. Wind speeds will weaken with sunset this evening. Late tonight, strengthening northwest flow aloft will lead to some low level wind shear developing mainly over and just east of mountain ranges, but also with a southwesterly low level jet on the far east-central and southeast plains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1256 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Aside from the critical fire weather conditions over the Northwest Plateau this afternoon and early evening, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are also forecast elsewhere along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Central Highlands. The ongoing Fire Weather Watch still looks appropriately positioned for Wednesday, when gusts will probably reach around 40 mph in many locations, and around 45 mph in Corners, as mixing heights soar between 14-17K FT. The concern Thursday through Friday will become erratic thunderstorm outflows and the risk of dry lightning. This concern may linger along and east of the central mountain chain on Saturday, as critical fire weather conditions threaten to return farther west. Critical fire weather conditions may become more widespread on Sunday if the flow aloft strengthens enough with the upper trough moving into the western US. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 58 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 91 45 94 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 89 56 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 92 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 89 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 93 58 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 89 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 91 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 88 63 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 95 52 93 51 / 0 0 40 10 Glenwood........................ 98 56 97 55 / 0 0 30 10 Chama........................... 85 46 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 57 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 76 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 80 45 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 88 51 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 86 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 94 57 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 89 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 68 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 64 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 63 101 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 99 62 103 67 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 61 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 64 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 62 102 66 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 93 66 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 101 71 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 62 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 91 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 92 60 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 57 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 88 60 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 92 59 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 91 60 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 94 66 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 86 53 92 53 / 0 0 5 5 Raton........................... 91 52 97 55 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 92 53 97 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 90 58 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 90 61 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 89 57 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 98 61 104 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 95 63 101 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 97 65 105 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 95 66 103 66 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 96 67 105 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 97 63 104 68 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 99 66 110 75 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 94 65 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 91 62 97 66 / 10 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ101-105-106-120-124-125. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44 ####018004939#### FXUS63 KEAX 161148 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 648 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and possibly a few storms this morning Tuesday morning. No severe weather is expected. - Strong non-thunderstorm winds are likely Wednesday morning and early afternoon with gusts possibly exceeding 50 mph for a short time. - There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening for central and northeast MO. Risk levels drop off to the northwest. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Showers are beginning to develop over southeast NE and northeast KS. A 35 kt LLJ has developed over north central KS and moisture advection is increasing. The jet will strengthen to 40-45 kts while veering into northeast KS during the next few hours. This will focus development along the KS/MO border through mid morning. Some CAMs are quite bullish with around a half inch of QPF centered near the KC metro. PoPs have been increased to 60-70 percent in that area with chance farther east away from the better moisture and the LLJ. A few thunderstorms are also possible given modest instability, but severe weather is not expected. Showers will slide southeast with the jet mid morning and dry weather expected for the rest of the day. A trough will dig into the northern Plains tonight. Jet confluence at the base of the trough will increase speeds not usually seen in June. Also, a very strong 55-65 kt LLJ will develop overhead tonight. The boundary layer will be stable for much of the overnight which should keep gusts more sporadic, but following sunrise low level lapse rates increase and gusts should really ramp up as strong winds aloft are tapped into. By mid morning Wednesday, 40-50 kt winds will reside within the mixed layer. There very well may be gusts that reach these speeds through midday. The LLJ jet streak will slide east by afternoon as mixing maximizes. It will remain gusty through the day, but the intensity will gradually wane. A Wind Advisory may eventually be needed for Wednesday morning. A cold front will begin approaching northeastern KS and far northwestern MO early afternoon, passing through the KC metro mid afternoon. This is a bit earlier than previous forecasts. Thermal ridging ahead of the front will bring hot and humid air northeast into northwest MO, but the front may be just fast enough to clear most of the KC metro before the cap breaks and convective initiation occurs around 21Z to the east. Convection will zipper southwest along the cold front into the evening. The parameter space remains very favorable for severe thunderstorms and supercells are still possible with all hazards. The greatest risk is across eastern and central MO where a level 3/5 severe risk resides. Coverage will be lower farther west, but the storms that do form may still produce 75 mph wind gusts and 2 inch hail. Heat indices ahead of the front may reach 100 with highs in the low to mid 90s and dew points near 70. The front will clear to the southeast Wednesday evening but will stall across southern MO which may keep storm chances going across central MO into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The front will remain across central MO through Thursday before resuming its push south Thursday night. High pressure will build into the MO/MS Valley Thursday night into Friday night before shifting east to the OH Valley Saturday. Low pressure will develop over Colorado Saturday and track east across the central Plains Saturday night. Rich moisture streaming north with pwats possibly greater than 2 inches will advect north on a strong LLJ which should result in widespread thunderstorms along the warm front Saturday night and Sunday. The evolution of this system still shows a lot of spread in the ensemble guidance, but the overall scenario is favorable for heavy rainfall totals and potential flooding. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Showers and thunderstorms across northern MO and northeast KS will continue southeast this morning. TAF locations will have a chance of TS through 14 or 15Z. Scattered mid level clouds follow for the rest of the period. Winds will be light until late tonight when very strong winds aloft begin to move in. That will result in an uptick with southwest winds after 07Z which will strengthen further just beyond the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Borghoff LONG TERM...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff