####018004971#### FXUS66 KMFR 082335 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 335 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .DISCUSSION...A strong upper ridge off the California coast this week will keep much of the moisture associated with a strong atmospheric river to our north. The frontal boundary associated with that moist plume will settle southward later tonight into Tuesday and this will bring increasing rain chances to NW sections of our forecast area and also the coast/coast ranges, but the impactful rainfall will largely stay to our north. In fact, many areas south of the Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades won't see any rainfall from this system at all. As the front edges southward tonight through Tuesday evening, mid level winds will increase in NE portions of our area and this will bring occasionally gusty winds from the Cascades eastward in Oregon (primarily north of Highway 140). Limited vertical mixing could make it difficult for the winds to completely mix down to the surface, so the strongest winds will be over the higher terrain, but also possibly in some of the more typically channeled valleys (around Summer Lake). Please refer to our wind advisory for the details. After the front briefly jogs southward, the upper ridge will re- strengthen at midweek and amplify as it heads into California and the West Coast late this week into the weekend. As such, moisture will shift well to our north and precip chances will diminish Wednesday to almost nil everywhere Thu-Sat. Overall, we're expecting yet another dry, mild period for this time of year, which isn't exactly a good thing since we're heading into (climatologically) our wettest time of the year and snowpack is pretty much non-existent. This pattern will probably bring more valley/basin low clouds/fog during the nights/mornings. Areas that remain clear will have cold mornings, but also milder afternoons. It's not out of the question that some of the climate sites in NorCal (Montague, Mount Shasta, Alturas) and perhaps even Klamath Falls challenge a mid-December record high or two late this week. Beyond that, models show the upper ridge axis pushing east of the Cascades Saturday night with a Pacific frontal system approaching the coast and moving inland Sunday. Most ensemble members weaken this front as it moves onshore, so it remains to be seen just how much, if any precipitation it will bring. Will this be the system that opens the storm door for our area? While the CPC 8-14 day forecast gives hope for a wetter period next week (odds are shown to be 50-60% for above normal precip), model clusters and ensembles still show plenty of drier solutions within the membership and a tendency for upper ridging near or just off the California coast. If that ridge remains strong enough, this could keep the storm track to our north. -Spilde && .AVIATION...09/00Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore, IFR and LIFR ceilings are expected to be the predominate condition through the TAF period, with visibility also lowering Tuesday morning as the front slowly sags south. Inland, VFR is likely into this evening. Then expect, lower ceilings to develop again tonight into Tuesday morning, down to MVFR, then IFR/LIFR. Areas of fog and terrain obscuration is also likely west of the Cascades. Strong winds aloft develop near the Cascades and over the east side in Oregon (north of Highway 140) tonight into Tuesday where higher terrain could experience gusts in excess of 50 mph. This could lead to some low-level wind shear over there (NE of Klamath Falls) since a low-level inversion probably doesn't allow these winds to mix all the way to the surface in some valleys. Even so, vertical mixing may improve Tuesday to allow surface wind gusts to 50 mph from around Summer Lake eastward. -Spilde/Petrucelli && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Monday, December 8, 2025...Gusty south winds and steep wind waves combined with westerly swell will bring hazardous conditions to small craft tonight through at least Tuesday. Winds subside, but west swell persists into Wednesday, especially across the north. Conditions improve around mid-week as swell dominated seas gradually lower. Expecting light rain over the waters through mid-week which could reduce visibilities at times (fog/low clouds expected as well) over the next couple days. -Spilde/JWG && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-370. && $$ MAS/JWG ####018006814#### FXUS63 KLSX 082335 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 535 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Up and down temperatures are expected this week with highs in the 40s/50s Tuesday transitioning to potentially dangerous cold this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to slide southeastward into the lower Mississippi/Appalachian Mountains overnight tonight. Winds will turn out of the south/southeast in its wake, with speeds gradually increasing overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. This increase in winds along with some mid/high level clouds streaming in from the northwest should actually yield some rising temperatures overnight. Lows in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees are forecast from northeast to southwest, but these lows likely will be reached in many areas around/before the midnight hour. Winds are expected to veer more to the southwest on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. At least partial sunshine and low-level warm air advection are expected to yield the warmest day for most locations in over 2 weeks. Highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s are expected across the bi-state area. Coldest locations are forecast to be across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. This is where there is still a snow pack on the ground. Warmest locations are expected to be across portions of central/east central Missouri. south of the snow pack and in a region that will see winds favorable for downslope off of the Ozark Plateau. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Next Monday) Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 (Tuesday Night - Thursday Night) Topsy-turvy temperatures are expected for midweek as multiple cold fronts pass through the region. The first is expected to come late Tuesday night. Temperatures ahead of this boundary will be quite mild, with lows only dropping back into the low to mid 40s. The exceptions are in northwest sections of the area, where lows in the low to mid 30s are forecast due to the timing of the frontal passage. Any threat for precipitation should stay to our northeast. Like most clippers, a vast majority falls as snow along/northeast of the track of the surface low. This low is forecast to track close to the climatologically favored zone across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Strong low-level cold air advection is forecast on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, steady or slowly falling temperatures are expected during the day. For most areas, readings will be in the mid 30s to low 40s from north to south during the afternoon. In addition to the cooler temperatures, it certainly looks windy. Sustained northwest winds of 15-25 mph are forecast with gusts of 30-40 mph. The strongest gusts are likely to be Wednesday morning as diurnal mixing commences. A brief 1-2 hour period of near-advisory gusts (45+ mph) are possible 12-15Z in far northern areas as winds atop the mixed layer approach 50 knots. Seasonably cold conditions are forecast Wednesday night through Thursday night along with mostly dry weather. We will have to keep a loose eye on the Thursday/Thursday night time period for the potential for some precipitation. Model guidance suggests some increasing low-level moisture convergence across a tight northwest- southeast baroclinic zone across the region during this time period. Chances for measurable precipitation range from 20-60% on the LREF from southwest to northeast, but drop quickly into the 10-25% range for at least 0.10" of liquid equivalent. Precipitation type isn't guaranteed to be snow either, with marginal or too warm temperatures the further southwest you travel. (Friday - Next Monday) The focus heading into the weekend continues to be on the incoming arctic air mass. While confidence in cold coming with below-normal temperatures is very high, exactly how cold is still a question mark. Ensemble guidance has backed off quite a bit with the brunt of the cold, focusing it more across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/northeast. However, these arctic air masses are very difficult to stop from bleeding south and east with time, particularly without strong mid/upper level ridging across the southeast CONUS (which largely looks absent). Both the EPS and GEFS forecast 850-hPa temperature anomalies of -20 to -25C along the lee of the Canadian Rockies later this week. This air mass should come southeast behind any northwest flow disturbance. Once it does, the abnormally expansive snowpack to our north will help prevent too much in the way of modification as it heads southeast. Long story short, all signs point to a (short) period of anomalous cold centered on this weekend. At this time, the coldest period is expected between Friday night and Sunday, with lows in the single digits (above zero) each night and highs on Saturday in the teens/twenties (and Sunday possibly as well). These readings would be about 15-25 degrees below normal for mid December. The spread is still high though, with inter-quartile ranges from the NBM of about 10 degrees. Given what was described above and the propensity for shallow arctic air masses to sag southward, I would not be surprised to see forecast lows/highs trend a bit colder over the next day or two, and closer at least to the 50th percentile of the NBM. Dry weather is forecast through the weekend. Anything that does fall behind the arctic front would fall as snow, but we are not seeing any signs at this point for measurable snowfall. Probabilities on the LREF over any 24-hour period don't really top 25%. The "best" chance likely would be with some low/mid level frontogenesis behind the arctic front itself sometime between Friday night and Saturday night, but at this point in time there is no consensus on if this will happen at all, and if so, where. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will turn to the south, then southwest ahead of the next low pressure system. Low level wind shear is likely to develop overnight tonight across central Missouri as low level flow increases. Wind shear conditions will diminish after sunrise Tuesday. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018009286#### FXUS63 KFGF 082336 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 536 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief period of moderate to heavy snow will bring a quick 1 to 3 inches across northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. - Very difficult travel conditions are expected Tuesday from accumulating snow and ice, blowing snow, and very strong winds. Some uncertainty in the track of the system exists, which will determine where snow transitions to freezing rain. In the snow area, expect 3-5 inches with some some areas receiving 6 or more inches of snow. - Strong winds will come in late Tuesday into Tuesday night behind the precipitation, with gusts up to 60 mph in southeastern North Dakota. Blowing snow across portions of northeastern North Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota will bring very difficult travel conditions with low visibility in addition to ice and snow. - Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 70 percent chance for winds chills to drop to -30 or colder. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently digging from southwestern Manitoba into ND will continue diving into our northern counties tonight. This will bring a quick shot of snow and winds briefly shifting to the northwest before they return back to the south tomorrow morning ahead of the next system. The shortwave tomorrow is expected to be more vigorous, with a deeper surface low and strong cold air advection behind it. The strong shortwave will continue to be pretty fast moving, moving off into southern MN/northern IA tonight and then the next reinforcing shortwave coming down on Wednesday. North to northwest flow with periodic clipper systems continues through the rest of the period, with lower heights and colder air coming in on Friday. Some variation on where exactly the baroclinic zone ends up over the weekend, but decent agreement between ensemble members on northwesterly flow and another clipper moving in Monday. ...Brief moderate to heavy snow through this evening... First shortwave today has a fair amount of 850mb frontogenesis with it as seen on SPC mesoanalysis. Snow currently moving through northeastern ND has been showing fairly impressive rates, with 1 to 2 inches per hour in some locations. Fortunately the system is fast moving, so residence time will be short and most likely snow amounts are a quick 1 to 3 inches. Not out of the question that some spots could see more than 3 inches, but probability of that is around 10 to 20 percent. Expect larger impacts tomorrow. ...Accumulating snow and ice tomorrow... The stronger shortwave will dig into the northern Red River Valley tomorrow. There are still minor differences in the track of the surface low, with a difference of less than 50 miles making a big difference in temperature profiles. It is still unknown where exactly the rain/freezing rain/snow line will be, along with the band of heaviest snow. However, probabilities of at least a glaze of freezing rain are 60 to 90 percent along our western and southern counties. Best chances for at least 4 inches of snow are mostly across the eastern Devils Lake Basin into the Northern Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota, with a 40 percent chance for 6 inches or more in some spots. While exact amounts are still uncertain, travel impacts are highly likely with at least some ice and snow accumulation across the area. Portions of the Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley look to have the best convergence of a bit of freezing rain, up to 6 inches of snow, and blowing snow later in the day to go ahead and put out a winter storm warning through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Further east into MN, there will be a strong 2 to 4 inches of snow but less wind and lower chances for ice, so kept it advisory. Western Devils Lake basin will see a bit less snow, and southeastern ND into far northwestern MN mostly freezing rain and then rain. The icing impacts in southeastern ND will be affecting by rising temperatures, with some melting of ice and even crusting of snowpack possible with temps rising into the mid to upper 30s. However, for simplicity kept advisory through 00Z and later shifts can cancel early if needed. ...High winds Tuesday night... Very strong cold air advection and pressure rises on the backside of the departing low will bring good confidence in high winds Tuesday night behind the precipitation. BUFKIT soundings for KFAR have a strong mixed layer up to 780mb and momentum transfer as high as 55 kts Tuesday evening. Probabilities for 60 mph gusts or higher are 50 to 60 percent across southeastern ND. Not sure how long the high gusts will last into the overnight beyond the initial push of cold air advection, but elected to go high wind warning all the way from 00Z to 12Z Wednesday in the interests of headline simplicity. ...Cold temperatures Friday into the weekend... Upper low/trough digging into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday will help bring a reinforcing surge of cold air into the Northern Plains. This looks to be coldest of the season so far, with lows in the teens and 20s below zero over the weekend and highs on Saturday not even getting to the positive numbers. Mean apparent T values around around -40 Saturday and Sunday mornings. Likely will need some cold headlines of some sort, but too early to exactly determine advisory or warning. .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A bit of light snow or flurries reducing vis down to 2 miles at a few spots. Ceilings are mostly MVFR but a few have broken up to VFR or gone down to IFR. Some vis down to 1 mile or even lower at times is not out of the question, with IFR conditions for a while this afternoon and evening. After a bit of a break back to MVFR/VFR overnight as this first round of snow, visibility and ceilings will go down again towards the end of the period as the next round of precipitation arrives. That system will have the potential for FZRA as well as snow particularly at KDVL and KFAR, so have a mention going at those sites. Winds will be shifting around from the southeast to the west, then back to the southeast before going north with the cold front coming down. Speeds look like they will stay mostly in the 10 to 15 with gusts up to 20 kts during the TAF period, but will be ramping up quickly afterwards when they shift northwest for Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Snow will continue to push eastward through the evening towards BJI, clearing out for the most part in eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. Associated with the approaching band of snow will be periodic visibility reductions to 1/2SM at times (potentially even 1/4SM), with prevailing 1-2SM. MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue to linger on the backside of this snow. There are signals for a brief push to VFR in the Red River Valley. Confidence is low in the extent of VFR ceilings and the cutoff could be sharp so anticipate some amendments as necessary depending on how things shake out. Looking ahead to tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate from northwest to southeast through the morning and afternoon hours. Heavy snow in northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota will contribute to visibility reductions to 1/4SM at times, particularly with the blowing snow accompanying it. Additionally, freezing rain is likely to develop across eastern North Dakota into west-central Minnesota, particularly impacting FAR for a long duration. Eventually, all sites will shift to primarily snow, and with the winds approaching 40-50 knots (again particularly at FAR), blowing snow should cause visibility reductions to continue to linger once falling snow ends. MVFR to IFR ceilings will also accompany this system. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008-015-016-026-027-029-030-054. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ024-028-038-039-049-052-053. High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ024-028-038-039-049-052-053. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006-014. MN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>015. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ003-029. High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ003-029. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005-006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028- 030>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux ####018008025#### FXUS63 KAPX 082336 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 636 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - South-southwest flow lake effect ramps up later this afternoon with widespread synoptic snow spreading across northern MI tonight into Tuesday. - Another system Tuesday night - Wednesday bringing accumulating snow to parts of the area. Additional lake effect snow likely in its wake Wednesday evening - Thursday. - Additional snow chances Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains anchored over the eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. While surface high pressure sits overhead currently, attention is focused upstream on a wave currently making headway into the Dakotas. Attendant ~1008mb sfc low follows suit. This wave expected to be just on the other side of Lake Michigan by 12z Tuesday before crossing northern MI Tuesday morning/midday. Initial south-southwest flow lake effect expected to ramp up this afternoon/evening with synoptic snow arriving area-wide later tonight into Tuesday. Forecast Details: Initial SSW flow lake effect band beginning to materialize across central/northern Lake Michigan as of early this afternoon. Latest trends still supporting that to intensify and progress north into parts of western/central Mackinac County later this afternoon/early evening with locally intense snow continuing through the evening. This band may scrape parts of the far northwest lower shoreline through this time as well -- far western Benzie/Leelanau counties most susceptible to this. By later tonight into early Tuesday morning, synoptic snow expected to spread across the remainder of the forecast area with lake enhancement continuing near the Lake Michigan shoreline. This system a rather quick mover with the bulk of steadiest snow in the rear view mirror by midday Tuesday, though some lingering lake aided snow showers linger into the afternoon, especially in west/west-southwest flow favored areas. This should focus the most notable lingering snow showers across the tip of the mitt, perhaps enhanced locally near/around the Little Traverse Bay convergence zone and stretching inland to near I-75. With respect to accumulation and impacts, the heaviest snow is still expected across parts of western Mackinac County (perhaps stretching into western Chippewa as well) with 3-8 inches and highly localized amounts of 10-12+ inches not out of the question. A general 3-6 inches across Beaver Island and far northwest lower over sections of Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties. 2-4 inches anticipated over the broader Little Traverse Bay region, although some locally higher amounts can't be ruled out. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches across the remainder of northern lower and east of I-75 in the U.P. Hazardous travel will be the result, most notably across parts of western Mackinac/Chippewa counties, Beaver Island, and into far northwest lower where snow-covered roads and low visibility may be exacerbated as times by blowing/drifting snow as a result of increasingly gusty winds of around 30 mph. Worst of these conditions may materialize along US-2 from Brevort and points west where southwest winds may gust locally higher this evening-tonight coinciding with the area of greatest snowfall. Not much of a break with another system hot on the heels of this one for Tuesday night - Wednesday, discussed in further detail below. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Active winter pattern continues for the week ahead with several periods to watch for potentially impactful snow. Tuesday night - Thursday: By Tuesday evening, low pressure is expected to be situated over western MN, quickly making eastward progress across WI overnight and into southern/central MI by Wednesday morning. More uncertainty with this system as ensemble spread remains a little wider than preferred, especially with respect to low pressure track and resultant swath of heaviest snow. Latest trends continue to support the highest probabilities for 4"+ of snow maximized over parts of northern lower, as high as 50-70% in spots. Plenty of Pacific moisture with this system. but still looks to have quite the warm advection response with it -- and non-zero chances for some rain to mix in, primarily near and south of the M- 55 corridor from Manistee to Saginaw Bay. That said, if strongest FGEN forcing can survive its trip into Michigan, a narrow band of locally heavier snow seems likely, although the most likely area for that to occur remains TBD. In the wake of this system, northwest flow lake effect snow shower should kick in Wednesday afternoon and likely continue in spots through Thursday. Additional accumulation and hazardous travel likely to continue across these snow belts. Friday into the weekend: Another wave set to cross the northern tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend. H8 temps progged as low as around -20C Saturday/Sunday. Longer range ENS trends favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged lake effect/enhanced event that'd favor the typical snowbelts with highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much of northern MI through this time frame. However, given such cold temperatures, potential for dendritic growth may be limited, resulting in smaller flake size and limit overall accumulation to an extent, but also yield lower visibilities. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Light winds become S to SSE through afternoon into the overnight, increasing to sustained 10-15kts, esp at MBL/TVC and eventually APN. LLWS around 1500ft, from the SW at 30-35kt; expect this to start mixing down as gusts in the morning with subtle wind shift to S/SSW behind subtle front. VFR cigs slowly decrease to MVFR this afternoon/evening and eventually IFR for most all sites, with worst conditions starting 5-9z for MBL/TVC/CIU and possibly PLN. IFR conditions make it into APN toward 12-15z. Expect lowering visbys with snow/blowing snow tonight as well which could drop categories quicker/more frequently than expected. Possible some fog/low stratus may try to develop overnight, esp at APN, and have hinted at this in TAFs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 636 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Period of IFR vsbys expected in -SHSN at all sites between very late tonight and early Tuesday afternoon. This will affect the area from w to e, with the shortest period of IFR conditions expected at APN. Otherwise mostly VFR until the snow arrives, and MVFR cigs after the snow ends. Southerly winds increase and become blustery tonight, veering sw/wsw during the day Tuesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ020-025-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ086-098. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ095. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...JZ ####018004398#### FXUS64 KBMX 082337 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 537 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025 - Lows tonight will fall below freezing for nearly all of Central Alabama. - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below average, with a period of below freezing nights possible. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 536 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025 Main forecast challenge will be cloudcover overnight and its effect on temperatures as winds go calm. In general, looking at where the breaks are on satellite imagery suggests clouds hanging on generally along and west of I-65 with more clearing east of I-65. Have bumped up low temperatures especially across the southwest counties, while the coolest readings should be in the northeast. May need to bump these up further in some areas. In areas that do clear, there will be a low chance for patchy fog. 32/JDavis Previous discussion: (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1147 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025 Good news, bad news. The bad news is, today is going to be another cloudy, dreary day given the cool temperatures and low clouds. Thankfully, these clouds will finally mix out by tomorrow morning as dry air begins to filter into the region behind the front. This means sunny skies will finally return to the region, with clear skies expected through the middle of the workweek. With that being said, clouds and rain chances will return by Thursday ahead of the next trough into the weekend. If you remember in my discussion yesterday, I mentioned that the cold weather this weekend will heavily depend on how far south the trough ends up dropping. Even in the last 24 hours, long-range guidance has already backed off on the deep, secondary low that would have pushed this trough well into the region. Now, this is somewhat expected given that we're still six days out, and this is quite literally an ebb and flow forecast given the nature of low pressures. It's entirely possible this happens 12 more times the next six days. Super cold one day, more "mild" the next. As such, the temperatures this weekend will certainly be something to keep an eye on, it's just a matter of "how low can we go?" /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025 Satellite imagery still indicates an expansive area of low stratus across the area, but with some breaks. The most notable break is across East Alabama and Georgia due to downsloping off the Appalachians, with smaller breaks further to the west. Probabilities from the HREF favor keeping the low clouds around at BHM/EET/TCL through the night, with bases lowering to IFR. There is a lower probability alternative scenario, however, where ceiling scatter out overnight. If this happens then there would be at least a low chance for patchy fog. Have some TEMPO groups for MVFR at MGM/AUO tomorrow morning, with low to medium chances for the cloud deck to push southward towards MGM, as well as for another low cloud deck across Georgia to push westward towards AUO. VFR conditions should return by late morning Tuesday as low-level flow becomes southwesterly. 32/JDavis && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will continue to run above 40% for most of the next week, with no widespread rainfall chances in the forecast. Even with no rainfall anticipated, fire weather concerns will remain little to non for most of this week given wet fuels. However, by this weekend, fuels may dry back out, and MinRH values may drop back into the 30% range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 26 51 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 28 53 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 29 51 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 31 53 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 28 54 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 31 52 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 31 53 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 31 53 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32/JDavis AVIATION...32/JDavis ####018004999#### FXUS61 KILN 082337 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 637 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley will bring rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A much colder airmass will settle into the region later this week and into the weekend, along with occasional chances for snow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Snow in our far southeast will continue to taper off through mid afternoon as surface high pressure pushes southeast across our area. The lower clouds across our south should gradually scatter out as we head through the afternoon, but some mid and high level clouds will persist at times through tonight. Lows tonight will be mostly in the teens. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak mid level energy will track east across the southern Great Lakes through the day on Tuesday. Suppose it will be tough to rule out a few light showers or flurries across our far northern areas with this, but the better chance for any measurable pcpn should remain off to our north. With a tightening pressure gradient, southwest winds will become breezy through the day. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s in our south. A stronger mid level short wave will drop southeast across the upper Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday night. There are some timing and placement issues between the models with this feature but in general, an associated surface low will move across the western Great Lakes region through Tuesday night. Ahead of this, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten with a strengthening 40-60 knot 850 mb jet shifting east into our area late. With increasing moisture advection and low level convergence, rain will develop overnight and become fairly widespread by late in the night. In the developing WAA pattern, temperatures will not drop off much and may even slowly rise through the night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Axis of s/w energy in Ohio Valley is pushing east within l/w trough in eastern 1/3 of U.S. This will continue to produce rain during the morning as a strong cutoff sfc low moves ewd in the srn GtLks. A cold front will cross the region w-e during the afternoon, reaching the PA/OH border in the evening. Falling heights behind the front will change any precip to snow before ending in the evening. While most of the precip will already have been wrung out, lingering showers with lake enhanced banding will be found with the influx of cold air overturning in the lower atmosphere. This overturning will be present through Thursday, but any appreciable snowfall will have ended well before daybreak with light/isolated snow showers during the day. Overnight, high pressure noses in from nw-se and battles an intrusion of low pressure from the sw (likely a leading warm frontal boundary). This looks to show less chance in my ne CWA and more of a chance in the sw. Pops aren't overly high but it was my thought that this gradient should be more pronounced. After this time, models show larger differences in sensible wx/synoptic pattern. Higher pops during the day Fri look overdone, and there are indications of a clipper system tracking towards the region for Sat. One area of concurrence between the models is on Sunday, where high pressure builds into the region from daybreak Sun to daybreak Mon. Mild temps 40-45 are found on Wed ahead of the front, then fall to the upper 20s/mid 30s for Thu and Fri. Sat and Sun look a bit on the ugly side with highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. Temperature rebound on Monday looks to be overly optimistic but not unreasonable with a 10-12 deg bump from Sun. Lows in the mid 20s Wed night drop into the low 20s/upper teens north of the Ohio on Thurs night. Teens on Friday night then fall to the single digits/lower teens for Sat/Sun nights. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will shift southeast across the area overnight with mainly just some mid and high level clouds expected at times. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten up through the day on Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This will lead to increasing southerly winds through the day with some gust of 25 to 30 kts possible through the afternoon. 50-60KT southerly low level jet will offer a period of low level wind shear late in the day into Tuesday evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday through Friday. Gusty winds in excess of 35kts possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...AR ####018007244#### FXUS61 KCAR 082337 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 637 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in through tonight, then slides offshore on Tuesday. A weak area of low pressure crosses the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night, followed by a stronger low tracking from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to across Maine Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This low then slowly lifts northeast through the maritimes into Friday night. Another storm system approaches from the Great Lakes on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 630PM Update (MS): Despite clear skies winds are remaining elevated, so some adjustments back towards the NBM were necessary tonight into Tuesday. Wind chills are currently as low as 14 below at Frenchville and 18 below at Saint Zacharie in northern Somerset County. Winds decrease proportionally with temperature overnight, so nearly all areas are still not expected to reach cold advisory criteria. No other significant changes were needed. Previous Discussion: Northwest flow aloft tonight gives way to locally zonal flow on Tuesday. With no shortwaves progged to be embedded in this flow, it should be dry. After cold advection clouds dissipate early this evening, it should be mainly clear tonight. Should see an increase in mid-high clouds Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system. Lows tonight should be from the low single digits below zero to the mid-upper single digits above zero, this is around 15-20 degrees below normal. Wind chills tonight should be around 5 below to 15 below across most of the North and from around 5 below to 5 above elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday should be from the mid teens to around 30. This is about 15 degrees below normal. A northern stream shortwave approaches Tuesday evening, then crosses the area late Tuesday night. This should bring a round of light snow to at least Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region with the potential for 1-3" of snow - and highest totals over coastal Downeast Maine away from the immediate coast. There is some question as how far N/W the snow gets - with it likely that NW areas could remain snow free or get only some flurries. Lows Tuesday night should be around 5-10 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weather disturbance will be lifting away to the northeast Wednesday morning. Our attention then turns to a new area of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes supported by a trough of low pressure tracking through the Midwest. Snow ahead of this low will spread into our area Wednesday afternoon as the low quickly approaches. Most of the model guidance is bringing the low center across the central part of our region. This favors the low pulling enough warm air to the north to change precipitation over to rain Downeast and in the lower Penobscot Valley but keeping precipitation as all snow over the north. This is a fast moving storm with most of the snow expected between mid to late afternoon Wednesday into mid to late evening Wednesday night. A light to moderate accumulation of 3 to 6 inches looks probable across Northern Penobscot and Eastern Aroostook Counties with a bit less over the west where drier air will surge in a bit more quickly. Low pressure will move away to the northeast late Wednesday night into early Thursday. However, some of the models are indicating that there could be a trailing shortwave and low crossing our area Thursday morning which could result in some light snow or snow showers persisting into Thursday. Otherwise, an upper trough lingering late Thursday will bring mostly cloudy conditions over the north with chances for snow showers across far northern areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be nearby to the north Thursday night into Friday. This will bring cold gusty west to northwesterly winds and a chance for some snow showers over western and northern areas. Strong winds aligned from surface to aloft on Friday may result in a band of convergence forming downwind from the Laurentian Mountains in Quebec. This band typically runs southeast across Aroostook County, clipping northern Penobscot County, and impacting the Rt 1 Corridor from Mars Hill to Houlton with snow showers. Windy conditions may produce blowing snow in open areas. Gusty wind and a chance of snow showers will continue into Friday night. Looking ahead to the weekend, we will remain in a cold longwave trough with mid-winter like temperatures continuing. Some of the forecast models are showing the potential for another weak weather system sliding in from the west through the trough. However, fast flow, limited moisture and limited ability to dig will mean any new system would likely only result in some renewed light snow. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR. LLWS at northern terminals tonight. Winds W-WSW at 10KT or less. Gusts to around 15 kt are possible at northern terminals through early Tuesday morning. Tuesday night...VFR through approximately 6z at all terminals, then IFR or lower likely at southern terminals. Chance of MVFR or lower at KCAR/KPQI/KHUL late - with best chance at KHUL, VFR at KFVE. Light snow accumulation likely KBGR/KBHB. SW-S winds G15KT possible. SHORT TERM: Wednesday...MVFR lowering to IFR from south to north. S winds across the south and SE winds across the north around 5 kt. Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR. Light and variable wind north. SW wind around 7 kt south. Thursday...IFR improving to MVFR by mid morning. VFR south and MVFR north in the afternoon. W wind 5 to 10 kt. Thursday night...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 5 to 10 kt. Friday...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt gusting to 20 kt. Friday night...MVFR north becoming VFR. VFR south. W wind 10 kt. Saturday...MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR at times south. W wind 5 to 10 kt. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA conditions across all waters through late this evening and continuing on the coastal ocean waters into the overnight hours, then sub-SCA conditions on waters through Tuesday. Gales are possible on the coastal ocean waters Tuesday night, with SCA conditions likely then on the intra-coastal waters. The threat of Gales is highlighted in the HWO. SHORT TERM: A gale headline may be needed for the offshore waters Wednesday night for W winds gusting up to 35 kt. A SCA will likely need to continue for the rest of the week for winds gusting over 25 kt. Winds may drop just below SCA over the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ052. && $$ Near Term...PM Short Term...MB Long Term...MB Aviation...PM/MB/MWS Marine...PM/MB