####018004657#### FXUS63 KMKX 171050 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 550 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday evening. - Dry and pleasant conditions Wednesday through Thursday. Rain chances return Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued 550 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Seeing a convergent band of clouds along and just inland of the lakeshore this morning. There has been enough moisture off of the lake with this convergence to spur a few isolated light showers/sprinkles this morning and could see this continue through the early afternoon and diminish as winds become more northerly. Otherwise, high pressure will keep the area dry and less today. Wagner && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1158 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Rest of Tonight through Tuesday: Fog is expected in the Wisconsin River Valley and also in other low lying areas west of Madison overnight. An area of clouds is working its way down Lake Michigan tonight and there is also a wind shift to the northeast. The lake breeze will help keep the winds out of the NE for much of the day while inland areas will have generally NW winds. With high pressure spreading into Wisconsin, expect mostly sunny skies today with scattered diurnal cumulus clouds. Look for increasing clouds Monday night as winds become southwesterly in return flow around the high. Lows will be in the lower 60s. A weak trough crossing WI on Tuesday may be able to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Given dewpoints in the upper 60s just ahead of this front, we will have a little instability to work with. A mid level shortwave and a southerly (fairly weak) low level jet will provide synoptic support and also a little wind shear for those storms as well. A few stronger wind gusts are possible. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 1158 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Wednesday through Saturday: We will settle into a new weather pattern for the latter half of the week. Ridging over the western states and troughing over the east will put southern WI in an area with persistent northwest flow. Weak ripples in the flow could bring a chance for showers, but we will mainly be on the cooler/drier side of the front from Wednesday through Friday morning and our forecast is dry. Highs will be in the upper 70s each day with lows in the 50s. A weak front is expected to drop through southern WI Friday afternoon or night and could bring a round of showers and a few storms. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 550 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 A convergent band along the lakeshore produce swath of clouds ranging from 4-5kft along with pockets of 1.5-2.5kft resulting in MVFR conditions. However, expect the lower flight conditions to improve through the morning, but a scattered to broken deck of mid-level clouds persist through mid morning. While we have seen an isolated light shower/sprinkle associated with these clouds this morning, could see additional widely isolated showers/sprinkles through the afternoon. However, not expecting much of any impacts as anything that may develop will be brief and transient. Otherwise, high pressure building into the region will help keep winds lighter and predominately out of the north, but vary at times through the day and into Tuesday. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 1158 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 An area of high pressure will build in from the northern Great Plains late tonight into Monday, bringing light and variable winds through monday night. A slow- moving cold front will approach from the northern Great Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing increasing southwest winds and chances for thunderstorms. Tuesday evening and night appears most favored for storm potential, with storm chances expected to move well south of the waters on Wednesday. High pressure will move through the western Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday, with light and variable winds prevailing across the waters. The next thunderstorm chances arrive Friday afternoon and evening, when the next cold front is expected to move across Lake Michigan. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018002748#### FXUS61 KILN 171050 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 650 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front that will move through the region this afternoon. 2) Another cold front will move through Wednesday night bringing below normal temperatures for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Remnant showers and embedded thunderstorms moving across the region will quickly pass off to the east early this morning. Cold front extending from northwest Ohio into southern Illinois will move across the region this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary. The deeper plume of precipitable water will be decreasing and shunting off to the southeast, although values will still be quite high. And deep warm cloud depths will remain in place, so locally heavy rain will still be possible. Environment looks pretty marginal for any severe, although cannot rule out a few stronger storms. KEY MESSAGE 2) Dew points will drop back into the 60s in the wake of Monday's cold front, and temperatures will fall to or a bit below normal. Moisture will increase once again on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front, although not to the degree that has been the case for much of the past week. The front will sag through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning as minor impulses of energy move through the base of a long wave trough that is slowly shift eastward. Showers and possibly some storms could linger in southern counties into Thursday night when a more energetic short wave move southeast into the Tennessee Valley giving the front a stronger push south. After this front passes, even cooler conditions will prevail through the end of the week with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR ceilings around the Columbus area should lift to MVFR early. Other sites will also see MVFR ceilings develop during the early part of the period. Ceilings will gradually lift. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front that will move across the terminals by 22Z. Along with a wind shift, ceilings will lift to VFR. Clouds will scatter at some of the sites with ceilings lingering at others. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...35 ####018002378#### FXUS63 KILX 171051 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 551 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and less active weather is on deck for this week, but won't be completely dry. There is a 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday morning. - Temperatures for the next 7 days will be in the upper 70s to 80s for highs and 60s to low 70s for lows. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show a 30-50% chance of above normal temperatures returning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 After this area of heavy rain exits the southeast this morning, a much less active pattern will settle in for the week. Behind the cold front moving through IL currently, a high pressure center will set up over the Upper Mississippi Valley / Great Lakes region for a day. Temperatures for the next 7 days will be in the upper 70s to 80s for highs and 60s to low 70s for lows. This period of cooler weather doesn't look like it is in for the long haul. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show a 30-50% chance of above normal temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms re-enter the forecast by late tomorrow as a upper disturbance pulses through. SPC has central IL in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday west of a Pittsfield to Ottawa line, which would be for the late afternoon convection. There is a 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday morning. Additional chances for rain exist through Thursday before returning to a mostly dry forecast for the end of the week. Wednesday and Thursday are not expected to have any severe weather at this time. It also appears that the majority of the rain that may occur those two days should be south of I-74/Danville, providing a well deserved break from the heavy rain. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 12z TAF period today. Winds will be out of the north 6-9kts then becomes light and variable this evening into the overnight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Copple DISCUSSION...Copple AVIATION...Copple ####018006417#### FXCA62 TJSJ 171052 CCA AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 652 AM AST Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Aug 17 2026 - An elevated heat threat will persist throughout the workweek due to warm temperatures and heat indices exceeding 108 degrees Fahrenheit. - A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 5 PM AST for urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. - Dry conditions will persist through late Tuesday, with very limited shower activity during the period. - A tropical wave will approach the local islands by Wednesday, increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .Short Term(Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Aug 17 2026 Tranquil and generally quiet weather prevailed across the region overnight, with Doppler radar picking up fast-moving showers over Caribbean waters while land areas stayed mostly clear. Overnight lows ranged from the upper 70s to low 80s in coastal and urban areas, dropping into the 70s across higher elevations. Winds remained light out of the east at 5 to 10 mph, with land breeze variations and occasional higher gusts. An elevated heat risk will affect coastal and urban sections of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands today, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM AST. These conditions significantly increase the risk of heat exhaustion and heat stroke, especially for young children, the elderly, and anyone spending extended time outdoors. Stay hydrated, limit direct sun exposure, and take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning. Dry, stable air aloft will keep precipitable water (PWAT) values below normal, between 1.25 and 1.45 inches through Tuesday, limiting rain chances. Nonetheless, daytime heating and local effects could trigger isolated showers over western Puerto Rico during the afternoon. A tropical wave will approach the region from late Tuesday evening into Wednesday, pulling in deep moisture and driving PWAT values above-normal values of 2.00 inches. This shift will sharply increase the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Given the ongoing dry spell, any rain will be a welcome relief. Please continue to monitor the forecast closely throughout the week for updates as conditions evolve. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Aug 17 2026 A generally quiet weather pattern is expected through most of the period, with no significant rainfall hazards anticipated. Moisture should gradually decrease Thursday into Friday, favoring brief passing showers and limited afternoon convection over western Puerto Rico. Heat will likely remain the main concern, with elevated heat risk possible where sufficient sunshine occurs. Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the period as some guidance suggests an open tropical wave approaching the northeastern Caribbean by Sunday or the following weekend. At this range, however, the signal remains highly uncertain and may partly reflect climatological influences in the model solutions rather than a well- defined system. Trends will continue to be monitored. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Aug 17 2026 Mainly VFR conds expected across all TAF sites. Today, generally fair weather conditions will prevail across the region with aftn SHRA across western PR. Light winds btw 5-10 kts through 17/13-14Z. Breezy conditions with occasional gusts up to 26 kt will persist through 17/23Z. VCSH possible overnight across USVI sites and TJSJ, but overall no significant impacts expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Aug 17 2026 Moderate trade winds will prevail over the region for the next few days. Expect hazy skies from Saharan dust across the northeastern Caribbean, with a weak tropical wave bringing increased showers and possible thunderstorms with gusty winds by midweek. Choppy 6-foot seas will ease to 3-4 feet later in the workweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Aug 17 2026 Winds and seas are expected to gradually improve today across the coastal waters of the islands, and a moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail across the north and east facing beaches of the islands. A low to moderate risk of rip currents is expected through most of the workweek as seas subside through midweek. However, remember that even when the risk is low, life-threatening rip currents can occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Shower and thunderstorm activity could increase on Wednesday with the arrival of the next tropical wave. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM AST Mon Aug 17 2026 Critical fuel conditions persist across the islands, with extreme drought affecting portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the southern coastal plains. A drier airmass continues to promote mostly fair weather across the region while lowering relative humidity to critical levels. Combined with ongoing rainfall deficits, stressed vegetation, and dry fuels, these conditions will favor rapid fire spread. The greatest concern remains across southern and southwestern Puerto Rico, where fuels are exceptionally dry and recent fire activity has been frequent. However, elevated fire danger extends across all of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Consequently, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 10:00 AM to 500 PM AST. Residents and visitors are strongly urged to avoid outdoor burning, as conditions will easily support wildfire ignition and rapid spread. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ EVENING SHIFT...DSR/ICP MIDNIGHT SHIFT...GRS ####018005330#### FXUS63 KDVN 171053 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 553 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure will remain draped over the region through the start of the work week, bringing seasonal temperatures and mostly clear skies. - A storm system will pass through the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the chance for thunderstorms. A few storms may be strong to severe. - Another stretch of quieter weather returns late in the week and into the weekend, with limited precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The stretch of heavy rainfall and severe storms has finally come to a close, as high pressure slides over the region today. We are geared to have quite the beautiful start to the work week. Aside from diurnal cumulus, mostly clear skies will be seen, with light northwesterly winds and temperatures around 80. Tonight, high pressure will be southeast of the area, with llvl winds shifting southwesterly. An increase in llvl moisture will result, with increasing mid-high clouds through the night. Dry conditions will remain through much if not all of the night, with temperatures in the low-mid 60s. The HRRR continues to bring in a decaying line of showers/storms, largely impacting our northern counties and drying up as it progresses through the area. Although, much of the short term model suite keeps us dry through tonight. A shortwave trof will approach the area later on Tuesday, with weak bouts of energy passing out ahead of it. A 20-30 KT LLJ will also be in place overhead, increasing moisture throughout. This will create an environment favorable for showers and storms, which can be seen as early as late morning. Although, forcing isn't best until later in the day, especially as a cold front crashes through the area. Thus, any shower/storm activity should remain isolated to scattered until the afternoon/evening hours. As the cold front approaches Tuesday evening/night, we may have an environment favorable for some organized convection. Deep-layer shear will largely remain in the 30- 40 KT range with sufficient instability, which would favor mixed- mode convection that can grow upscale into a line of storms. The environment in place would favor the chance for a few strong to severe storms, with wind gusts being the main concern. Comparing to previous forecast runs, the severe threat does seem to be decreasing a little. This could be due to the aforementioned daytime showers/storms, which may limit afternoon destabilization ahead of the cold front, leading to a more conditional threat. This will be something to continue monitoring as more short term guidance comes in. SPC seems to have picked up on this trend, keeping much of the area under a Marginal Risk, level 1/5, and trimming the Slight Risk, level 2/5, to our far west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 127 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Wednesday morning, we may continue to see residual showers/storms as the cold front fully exits the area. At this point, the severe threat will be quite limited. Thus, we are not expecting many impacts at that point. Post-frontal airmass will kick in Wednesday, with light northeasterly winds and decreasing cloud cover. The remainder of the work week seems to be quiet, with a slightly cooler airmass in place and much lower humidity. We will remain under weak northwesterly flow aloft, with a few weak impulses in the flow. Although, with low moisture and lacking return flow, we are not expecting much rain for the rest of the week. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, any precipitation will largely be in the form of isolated instability showers. A few global models indicate chances late Friday into Saturday morning, but confidence is low on this. Will stick with what the NBM initialized, introducing 15-30% PoPs Friday evening/night. Otherwise, a much needed stretch of mostly-dry weather will be seen, with comfortable humidity and temperatures largely in the upper 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Can't rule out a very brief MVFR visibility reduction in mist at a few of the terminals to start off the TAFs, but too low of confidence and probability to mention. Lake stratus should not impact the KMLI and KBRL terminals this morning with N/NE flow in the cloud bearing layer steering them well to the east. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period with diurnal cumulus 2500-3500 ft bases lifting and decreasing with increased mixing, which will bump NW wind to around 10+ kt before turning light while backing from the SSW after sunset. There is a low chance for a shower or storm to approach KCID and KDBQ terminals toward the end of the period, but the probability (20%) is too low for any mention. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...McClure ####018004463#### FXUS64 KLIX 171054 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 554 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 524 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values climbing into the lower to mid 110s. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for today. Beyond today, Heat Advisories are anticipated. The impact of the afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Each day should show one or two more storms than the day before. Most of this activity should show up with the help from some type of boundary interaction. Once one or two get started, it will go quickly as new outflows are developed. The big picture still shows the upper/mid level high developing near the Baha and eventually moving into the SW CONUS buckling the polar jet causing troughing downstream to the east. This troughing is what helps get more storms going over the SE CONUS by late Tue into Wed. Some of these storm complexes will move into the NE gulf in which they will get caught up in the easterlies, bringing some of these storm pulses back to the west. We could see a few of these in seperate intervals possibly as early as Thu. The synoptic patterns are more reliable in the mid to extended portion of any fcast as mesoscale features are handled poorly at times that far out. But the synoptic pattern is believable as the troughing would cause an unsettled region of storm activity where the base and leading edge of it settles in, which in this case, is over the SE CONUS into the NE gulf. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 As we move into the long term portion of the forecast, the global models agree on the large scale pattern with ridging centered near the Four Corners area, and troughing over the Great Lakes and Appalachians. However, there are some smaller scale details that may end up making a bit of a difference in our forecast. A weakness over the eastern Gulf the next few days gets handled differently by the two global model families. The ECMWF solutions allow a northern stream shortwave to pick up the impulse and take it up the Atlantic Coast. This wouldn't be much of an issue for us. However, some (including the operational 18z), but not all, of the GFS members show the northern stream shortwave missing the impulse over the Gulf with it slowly drifting westward toward the local area next weekend, which could make things significantly wetter (and cooler). At this point, the numbers point toward solutions that don't produce a lot of rain. Until we get into a wetter pattern, we'll likely continue to see highs in the mid and upper 90s. If there's one day that favors being "slightly" wetter and less hot, it would be Saturday, and the differences between that day compared to Friday and Sunday are minor. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Outside TSRA times, VFR will be the rule for this taf cycle. TSRA activity will begin to develop during the afternoon hours today mainly along and near the coast. Those sites with the highest chances of getting sh/ts will be shown with timing. && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms will be possible mainly toward sunrise. For the winds, expect variable direction through midweek locking in to easterly from midweek through the end of the period at or less than 10 knots outside any storms. Waveheights will remain in the 1-2 foot range. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071- 076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE