####018004459#### FXAK69 PAFG 250025 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 425 PM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clear and quiet weather continues across Interior Alaska. Areas of clouds and light rain continue along a front stretching from the Bering Strait to Nome to Aniak. Low clouds and fog persist on the North Slope, with blizzard conditions expected to begin from Nuiqsut east starting Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Analysis and Model Discussion...Strong ridging continues to build over northern Alaska while a vertically stacked low persists over the Bering Sea. This is bringing areas of light precipitation to the West Coast and very sunny, clear, and calm weather to the Interior. Clouds are trapped beneath high pressure on the Arctic Coast with very low ceilings and low visibility. The low in the Bering Sea will shift into the Gulf of Alaska by Friday night, bringing an end to the light precipitation on the West Coast. Ridging will strengthen over the Interior and North Slope through Thursday, then weaken slightly through the weekend. A building area of surface high pressure in the Arctic will bring strong east winds and blizzard conditions to the central and Eastern Arctic Coast on Thursday and Friday. Models are in good agreement on the forecast through the short term period. By Saturday night, the ECMWF is slightly slower than the consensus NAM/GFS/Canadian solutions in moving the low in the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. We will use a blend of models for the forecast package, and trend toward the GFS starting late Saturday. West Coast and Western Interior...A weak front remains stationary from the Bering Strait to Nome to Aniak and is bringing areas of clouds and light rain. Precipitation will intensify slightly overnight tonight, but is still expected to be mostly light. Precipitation will diminish Friday. Winds will be mainly offshore at 15 mph or less with high temperatures in the 30s along the coast and in the 40s inland. Central and Eastern Interior...Very quiet and pleasant weather continues across the area. High temperatures will trend a couple of degrees warmer on Thursday, into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs Friday through the weekend will trend back to the low 50s by Sunday. Light southerly gap winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected through Alaska Range passes Thursday and Friday. North Slope and Brooks Range...Areas of fog and low clouds remain trapped beneath high pressure along the Arctic Coast with clear skies in the Brooks Range. Building high pressure will keep these low clouds in place across the Arctic Coast. East winds increase to 25-35 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph across the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast starting Thursday morning and continuing through Friday evening. This will bring blizzard conditions to the area. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s for highs along the north side of the Brooks Range tomorrow to the single digits below zero for lows along the Arctic Coast Saturday morning. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Ridging will persist over northern Alaska, bringing continued fair weather. The ridging will be weaker than this week, so temperatures will trend back to near or slightly below normal. Any precipitation is expected to be very light. && .FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidities will reach critical levels (25% or lower) Thursday and Friday across the Tanana Valley. The lowest RHs will be near and south of Delta Junction at around 15%. South winds through Alaska Range passes will gust to around 25 mph early Thursday morning through Friday morning, with poor RH recovery expected in this area Thursday night. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s near Delta Junction and in the low to mid 60s across the rest of the middle Tanana Valley. && .HYDROLOGY...River and lake ice continues to decay across the Interior. Use extreme caution if traveling on ice. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-805. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851. && $$ CHRIEST ####018005862#### FXUS62 KRAH 250027 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 825 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep across central NC tonight. High pressure will build in from the north Thursday through Friday night, before shifting offshore over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest sfc and radar analysis this afternoon depict a continued east- southeastward moving pre-frontal/rain cooled outflow induced light stratiform rain band. This band of light rain will continue ese the next several hours before exiting our area later this evening. The associated overcast cloud deck will also disperse behind this feature (KINT has already cleared out) clearing from north to south through the overnight hours. Flow will turn more wnwly as the synoptic cold front (currently entering the western slopes of the Appalachians) sweeps through overnight. However, gustiness should be subdued behind the front and the passage is expected to be dry. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... ...Seasonably Cool and Dry conditions... A ~1030 mb surface high over SE Canada will build south down the Mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas through the period. Troughing over the Eastern US will move offshore late Thursday, as an amplifying ridge builds in from the Central US. NELY low-level flow will result in seasonably cool temperatures and very comfortable humidity levels. After fair weather cumulus Thursday, an upslope and WAA regime on the eastern slopes of the mtns, coupled with shortwave impulses cresting atop the ridge axis, will yield periods of broken mid/high clouds Thursday night and Friday especially, across the western piedmont. Thus, Friday will be the coolest day of the two. Highs Thursday ranging from upper 60s/near 70 north to mid 70s south, with highs Friday averaging 2-3 degrees cooler. Conversely, Thursday night will be the coolest of the two nights. Lows in the lower/mid 40s north to lower 50s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM Wednesday... Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US from Saturday through Monday. Thus dry weather and increasing temperatures will prevail during this period. At the surface, 1030-1035 mb high pressure will be centered east of the NJ coast on Saturday, which will result in E/SE flow that will keep skies mostly covered by low/mid level clouds. This will promote near-normal high temperatures in the lower-to-mid-70s and slightly-above-normal lows Saturday night in the lower-to-mid-50s. The surface high will weaken and sink south to off the Carolinas/GA coast on Sunday and Monday, shifting the surface flow to a S/SW direction. With the mid/upper ridge strengthening and becoming centered over the mid-Atlantic, skies will mostly clear and high temperatures will reach the upper- 70s to lower-80s on Sunday and mid-to-upper-80s on Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to lower-60s. While these temperatures won't break any records, they are still 5-15 degrees above normal. Clouds and precipitation chances will be on the increase on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough and associated cold front approach from the west. There could be enough instability for some storms. The shortwave doesn't look too vigorous and model QPF is on the light side, so only carry slight to low chance POPs at this time (highest NW). While the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring the front through central NC on Tuesday evening/night and to our SE by Wednesday, a minority of ensemble members are slower with its passage which warrants continuing slight chance POPs on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 825 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions will be dominant through the next 24 hours across central NC, although there are increasing signs of a risk of shallow ground fog tonight across the S and E. The bands of light rain that passed through the area during the past 12 hours has pushed to our extreme SE, attending a weak surface trough, but the actual cold front remains to our N and W this evening. A few isolated showers and even a small cluster of thunderstorms formed just ahead of the front in the late afternoon over S VA and far N NC, but these are diminishing quickly with loss of heating and should not affect our terminals through tonight. Until the front passes through the area later tonight, patches of shallow IFR or LIFR ground fog are possible in the S and E mainly 07z-12z, with the highest chance at RWI and slightly lower chances at RDU/FAY. Uncertainty with this remains high, so will not include as a prevailing condition at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely from mid morning through Thu, as the surface front settles just to our S with high pressure nosing in from the N, resulting in light/variable winds tonight becoming mostly from the NE or ENE Thu. Looking beyond 00z Fri, there is a chance of sub-VFR conditions late Thu night into early Fri morning as the easterly low level flow draws Atlantic moisture into the area. Patchy light rain can't be ruled out Sat, but VFR conditions are likely to hold, and VFR should prevail through Mon. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Luchetti/Badgett NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...Hartfield