####018008648#### FXUS64 KEPZ 100940 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 340 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Our warm and dry Spring season continues across the Borderland, but we will see a push of moisture from the east today and tonight as a frontal boundary arrives on easterly winds, which will be gusty overnight tonight. We could see some isolated showers or thunderstorms over eastern and central areas later today and Saturday before the moisture gets shoved back out of the region late Saturday. Sunday and most of next week, we revert back to a warm and mostly dry and breezy weather pattern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Deep westerly flow continues over the region, with a cut off low pressure system over the Great Basin to our north. This feature will help to draw in a couple of surface-based frontal pushes today and tonight from areas from the north and east. Today we will see a push of continental air from the N and E, with moderate increases in moisture. Tonight we will see a harder push on gusty E and SE winds from the east, with healthier gulf moisture out of the Southern Plains. Today we will see good gains in lower level moisture from the Rio Grande valley eastward, and tonight it pushes west to the Continental Divide. Dewpoints will rise from the teens to the 30s and 40s, and PWATs will double to around 0.05". For today/this afternoon, shower and storm chances look limited by capping and dry air aloft for all but possibly the lower east slopes of the SACs and far eastern areas of Otero and Hudspeth counties. Overnight, the moisture increases and deepens on the strong E/SE push, but we lose the surface heating, and thus instability. It will be a battle on Saturday between heating for instability, and scouring out of the moisture as SW winds return by mid day. The NBM does have POPs and PCPN in the grids, and we follow our neighbors to the N and E with some SHRA and TSTM over our central and eastern zones, but it is likely overdone. The result will likely be more clouds and less precipitation. Winds overnight tonight maybe the bigger deal for most of the area, as the east push overnight looks to bring winds of 20-35 mph for the southern, central, and eastern lowlands and sky islands. The moisture and east push of Friday night/Saturday morning looks to get rapidly reversed Saturday afternoon as daytime heating and mixing flips winds back to SW and W. The models are in good agreement with mixing out and pushing back east the moisture as early as mid/late afternoon from west to east across the region. Our western areas will be very dry, our central areas mostly dry, and our eastern areas losing moisture rapidly. Sunday, models begin to move the large upper low to our north, across the central rockies, into the Plains. For us we will see some breezy west winds return, with deep and dry air moving back in. Monday and Tuesday we will come under a weak upper ridge, with a bit lighter wind (albeit, still with afternoon breezes), and some day to day warming of temperatures. We will be keeping an eye on Wednesday and beyond of next week as the global models indicate an open trough swinging in from the west, followed by an upper low dropping in from the N. The GFS and EC both indicate some associated limited moisture moving in with mainly mountain showers/storms possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions through the period with SCT250 and increasing BKN250 through the period. Surface winds northwest AOB 7 knots. Winds turning to east/northeast 10-13G20 knots after 09Z. Winds then turning south/southwest 10-15G25 knots after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 We'll begin to see some changes in the weather pattern that will shift our fire weather concerns downward for a couple of days, for much of the region. Aloft we continue today with a dry westerly flow which will keep the region seasonably warm, and generally dry. However, at the surface a frontal boundary will push in from the NE today, with limited low-level moisture for areas over and east of the Rio Grande (western areas will stay quite dry today). This moderate moisture intrusion from the Plains will help to bring up minRH this afternoon for those central and eastern areas. The surface high pressure to our east will ease the surface gradient and allow for slightly relaxed winds today vs. previous days. Our far eastern areas (Sacs, Otero and Hudsepth areas may see some isolated showers or storms, but most of the region should remain dry. Tonight a second east push blows in on gusty E and SW winds with more moisture, spreading all the way west to the Continental Divide by Saturday morning. This will give more of the region a better RH recovery tonight,a along with some low clouds and gusty east winds. We could see some overnight showers, and even possibly a few storms over the central and eastern zones, extending into Saturday, through mid afternoon. Any thunderstorms that do form will bring the potential for dry lightening this afternoon through Saturday. Daytime mixing and deep westerly winds aloft will rapidly dry the atmosphere on Saturday, with the moisture shifting back to the east through the afternoon. Thus our western areas will again be quite dry, with our central areas drying quickly, and our eastern areas hanging on to some moisture. We could see some lingering showers or storms over our eastern zones through late afternoon on Saturday. Sunday and beyond we go back to high pressure aloft with dry west flow conditions. Monday and Tuesday will bring warmer and drier conditions, with mildly , or occasionally breezy afternoon conditions. Thus somewhat elevated fire weather. Next Wednesday and Thursday another upper trough and low center swings and drops in, with some limited moisture possible. Thus we will watch that period for some shower and storm chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 90 63 90 61 / 10 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 80 58 84 55 / 10 40 50 20 Las Cruces 88 57 88 53 / 0 20 10 0 Alamogordo 83 55 85 51 / 10 40 40 10 Cloudcroft 60 42 61 38 / 10 50 70 20 Truth or Consequences 83 55 83 52 / 0 20 10 0 Silver City 77 48 75 45 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 87 52 87 48 / 0 10 0 0 Lordsburg 85 49 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 61 88 57 / 10 20 20 10 Dell City 81 57 83 53 / 0 40 50 10 Fort Hancock 90 59 93 55 / 10 30 40 10 Loma Linda 80 56 81 53 / 0 30 30 10 Fabens 90 61 91 56 / 10 30 20 10 Santa Teresa 85 57 87 52 / 10 20 10 0 White Sands HQ 86 62 86 60 / 10 30 20 10 Jornada Range 85 55 85 50 / 10 30 20 0 Hatch 87 53 87 49 / 0 20 10 0 Columbus 87 55 88 53 / 0 10 0 0 Orogrande 83 59 84 53 / 10 30 30 10 Mayhill 66 45 69 43 / 10 50 60 20 Mescalero 70 46 71 42 / 10 40 70 20 Timberon 69 44 70 42 / 10 40 50 20 Winston 76 47 75 42 / 0 10 10 0 Hillsboro 82 50 81 48 / 0 20 10 0 Spaceport 83 52 84 47 / 0 30 20 0 Lake Roberts 78 44 76 40 / 0 0 10 0 Hurley 80 46 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 83 48 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 78 47 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 79 49 79 46 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 85 49 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 86 50 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 86 50 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 80 50 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird ####018004415#### FXUS66 KSGX 100943 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 243 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... There is a slight chance of showers over the San Bernardino and Riverside County mountains this afternoon and evening. Areas of night and morning low clouds and fog will continue across portions of the coastal areas and valleys through the week. Gradual warming inland through Sunday followed by minor cooling Monday and Tuesday. Inland warming trend will resume on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Marine layer low clouds are struggling to organize over San Diego County this morning, but have filled in across Orange County with some patchy development in the Inland Empire. Elsewhere skies are clear. Clouds will gradually fill in across the valleys by sunrise, then slowly clear back towards the coast by the early afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low centered over NV with a trough axis extending west to the Central CA coast. This wave will rotate around the base of the low through tonight, pulling the low further southwest towards So Cal. There is marginal mid- level moisture with this low and High Level Total Totals around 34-36 for the San Bernardino Mountains northward. This should be sufficient for at least isolated showers over the higher peaks of the mountains Riverside and San Bernardino Counties this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere dry weather will prevail with highs a few degrees below normal. The upper low drifts east through the weekend with an upper level ridge setting up over the Southwest. This will bring steady warming inland through Sunday with highs likely reaching the triple digit mark in the low deserts. By Sunday highs will be around 5-9 degrees above normal inland, but the persistent marine layer will keep temperatures west of the mountains closer to normal. The marine layer will become more shallow over the weekend with less inland extent of cloud cover. The strengthening marine inversion will make it harder to get clearing at the coast during the afternoons. A weak closed low will slowly move across the region Monday and Tuesday, bringing minor cooling and allowing the marine layer to deepen once again. Beyond about Tuesday ensemble spread increases considerably regarding the position of the E Pac upper high and the placement of any downstream troughing. It's currently around a 50/50 split on a stronger ridge into the Pac NW and warmer weather here versus weak troughing across the Pac NW or a western displacement of the high, resulting in cooler weather for So Cal. These differences continue through the end of the week. The range of potential high temperatures is quite massive - around a 20 degree spread for the inland valleys to the deserts, but only around 5-10 degrees for the coastal areas and western valleys since the marine layer will stick around either way. Temperature forecast left with deterministic NBM which closely follows the 50th percentile. && .AVIATION... 100930Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of low clouds with bases 1800-2600 ft MSL and tops to 3500 ft will occur overnight, though some areas may have only brief/intermittent CIGs. Local VIS 1-4 miles will occur in BR, mainly in the valleys through 16Z, with local terrain obscurations in clouds. The valleys will clear 16Z-18Z, with partial clearing near the coast 18Z-21Z as some locations will have a BKN CIG 2100-2700 ft MSL lasting through Fri afternoon. Low clouds will spread farther inland Fri evening. Mountains/Deserts...SCT/BKN clouds will develop again Fri afternoon over the mountains with bases around 9000 ft MSL with local TCU possible. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will prevail through Fri evening with unrestricted VIS. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS AVIATION/MARINE...Adams