####018002339#### FXUS62 KTBW 250035 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 835 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 831 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Another quiet and clear night on tap with ridging overhead and lows expected in the low to mid 60's. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 High pressure remains in control and will stay in control of our weather pattern for at least the next week. This means warming temperatures and dry conditions. As the surface high pressure settles off to our east, it will lead to light easterly or southeasterly winds across the peninsula. This easterly flow will minimize the sea breeze influence and advect the warmest temperatures across our area, keeping temperatures across the CWA in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The drier airmass across the region will not only restrict rainfall chances but also lead to lower humidity. So while temperatures will be above normal for this time of year, at least it will be a dry heat. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 831 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with winds generally staying below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 High pressure is expected across the region for the upcoming week leading to minimal weather concerns. Easterly winds will turn onshore each afternoon remaining below 15 knots with seas of 2 feet and under. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 High pressure will remain in control over the next week. Critically low RH values are expected each afternoon, but winds will remain light negating a need for any Red Flag Warning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 85 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 64 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 61 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 85 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 55 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 84 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana ####018002798#### FXUS64 KOHX 250038 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 738 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The front that brought some showers to the area last night and this morning has cleared the CWA with light northerly winds behind it. The rest of the day will be dry with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tonight will be the coolest night over the next week with clear skies, calm winds, and lows in the 40s. Thursday will be another nice day with temperatures climbing into the 70s. Clouds will increase during the afternoon ahead of a shortwave and associated warm front which will move through after dark. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The warm front will bring some rain chances Thursday night into Friday morning as it lifts through the area. QPF will be light with amounts expected to range from 0 to a few hundredths. Southerly low level flow will return behind the warm front and temperatures will climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s on Friday. Conditions Friday and Saturday will be breezy as a 990 mb surface low lifts through the central plains. The weekend looks dry as upper level ridging holds and keeps the rain chances west of Middle Tennessee. The upper ridging starts sliding east on Sunday with an upper wave approaching the area on Monday which will be our next chance of rain. The temperatures in the extended forecast continue to look warm with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. CPC 8-14 day outlook continues to favor above average temperatures, so if you plan on planting a garden, it looks safe to go ahead. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions will continue this evening. Northwesterly winds will decrease overnight tonight and become light and variable. Only a few mid clouds through Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 48 74 55 82 / 0 0 30 30 Clarksville 44 71 53 80 / 0 0 30 30 Crossville 42 72 51 72 / 0 0 20 30 Columbia 46 75 54 82 / 0 10 30 20 Cookeville 44 71 53 75 / 0 0 30 30 Jamestown 42 71 49 73 / 0 0 30 30 Lawrenceburg 46 74 55 81 / 0 10 30 20 Murfreesboro 45 75 54 82 / 0 0 30 20 Waverly 46 72 54 82 / 0 10 40 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Whitehead ####018003627#### FXUS65 KGGW 250040 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 640 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Warm and dry weather in store through Thursday afternoon, with gustier winds this afternoon creating elevated to critical fire weather conditions. 2) Thursday evening, a frontal system and moderate instability leading to a 30% chance of thunderstorms south of I-94, with greatest risk of hail remaining in extreme southeast Montana. 3) Remainder of the week introduces daily chances of precipitation and near-normal temperatures. MIDDAY UPDATE: See fire weather section for Red Flag Warning issuance today, with forecast on track except for RH trending lower and winds slightly higher than the previous forecast. -Zanker WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge off in the Dakotas keeps the region under southwest flow aloft today, leading to calm weather and temperatures as much as 15 to 20 degrees above average. Winds increase (as high as 20 mph sustained) across far northeast Montana, but RH values quickly increase as night time creeps in; conditions remains under Red Flag conditions. Thursday, a developing surface low in the Great Plains will form along a surface boundary/front that extends north into eastern Montana. The NBM currently places this boundary near the Yellowstone River Valley by Thursday afternoon. This front, though not a textbook dry-line, is dictated more by a more moist airmass south of I-94. Throughout the day, low and mid-level moisture transport will increase instability in this region. As these levels moisten and daily convection initiates, isolated, discrete thunderstorms will develop east of the aforementioned boundary, but will quickly diminish as the cells move into less-favorable storm environments. From Friday, upper-level troughing over the region will brings temperatures back down into near-normal territory (upper 50s to low 60s) with increased chances of rain showers (20-50%). By Sunday, upper flow aloft returns from the southwest, bringing minimal chances for precipitation and an increasing trend for temperatures. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: Only potential deviation in the forecast will be for Thursday. Any shift in the boundary will dictate instability values for locations south of I-94. -Enriquez && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0030Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR DISCUSSION: Aside from some high cirrus, expect mostly dry conditions through Thursday morning. For Thursday afternoon, Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop south and east of KGDV and will impact it and KSDY through through the night into Friday. Chance of getting hit by rain in any given hour look to be around 20-40% and will be handled by Prob30s through Friday. More limited chances for thunder are confined to a range of about 23-03Z Thursday evening for these two sites and will likely not appear as Prob30s until around then if at all. SFC WIND: S to SE at 5 to 15kts through the evening. Becoming calm to light and variable after midnight. Shifting to the northwest at 5 to 15 kts Late Thursday mroning through the evening. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow