####018006128#### FXUS61 KPHI 260550 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 150 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore today. A warm front attached to low pressure over the Great Lakes moves by Saturday. Highs pressure returns for Sunday and into next week. Another low and front arrives for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure is centered over northern New England and southern Quebec early this morning, with a light pressure gradient over our region. Dew points dropped notably yesterday, so with dry air, light winds and clear skies, it looks as though radiational cooling should be excellent through dawn. Will watch obs closely to see if freeze/frost headlines need to be cancelled anywhere, but doesn't currently look like we'll need headline expansion anywhere given temps are running near to slightly above expectations. Otherwise, looks like a dry and mostly sunny day as the high very slowly drifts eastward through the day. The sun should allow rapid warming but the light southeastelry to easterly flow on the south side of the high will limit the climb in temps especially close to the ocean. Overall expect highs in the 60s inland to 50s near the coast. Tonight should stay mostly clear, but the easterly flow likely moistens up the low levels just enough that, when combined with some approaching high clouds ahead of a warm front and the warmer start plus warm advection aloft, should limit the drop. Might need some frost headlines but think another widespread freeze is off the table... possibly for the rest of the season? We'll see, but either way, milder than tonight. Lows mostly 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A transition to early summer readings Saturday and Sunday. An upper ridge will build across the area thru the period and as this happens, low pressure moves by to the north, bringing a warm front thru on Saturday. There will be plenty of clouds around, but chances for rain are low Saturday (slight chance) and only chance levels for Sat night. The most favored areas for the showers are the Southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley and north NJ. Mild and dry weather will be around for Sunday. Following the warm front, a deep southerly flow will arrive over the area, so increasing warmth and humidity is expected. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 70s/low 80s in most spots, but cooler near the shore and up across the Poconos. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... There are not many changes for the long term with todays forecast. Very warm temperatures for late spring will remain in place as the upper ridge starts out across the East late this weekend. Gradually, this ridge weakens and allows more scattered shortwave energy to arrive across the area. For Tuesday and into Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area and the weaken as it moves thru. So, for the period from Sunday night thru Monday night, a dry forecast is in place. Tuesday/Tuesday night will feature some scattered shower/tstm activity and after that, only widely scattered showers are expected for the midweek and into Thu. Well above normal temps for Sunday/Monday with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s Sunday and then some 5 to 7 degrees warmer for Monday. There will be more clouds and showers for Tue, but highs in the 80s are still expected. Humidity levels will increase into the new week with dew points rising to the upper 50s/low 60s for many areas. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Through today...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near 5-10 kts. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. East to southeast winds dropping to 5 kts or less. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday...VFR expected. Saturday night... VFR except in a few scattered showers mostly KRDG/KABE/KTTN when some MVFR is possible. Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions anticipated. Tuesday... Mostly VFR but scattered showers with lower conditions possible. && .MARINE... Seas are diminishing and should be in the 2-4 foot range through tonight with an east to southeast wind around 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts. Fair weather. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday... Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the period. Fair weather expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH values will be in the 25-30% range today. However, with winds so low, around 10 MPH or less, the threat for the rapid spread of wildfire remains low. The morning shift will take another look and coordinate with partners to see if any statements are needed. && .CLIMATE... A few records could be approached early this morning. ABE/Allentown 30 in 2001/1967/1934 ACY/Atlantic City Airport 28 in 1967 55N/Atlantic City Marina 34 in 1883 GED/Georgetown 30 in 1964 MPO/Mount Pocono 18 in 1919 PHL/Philadelphia 35 in 1967/1919 RDG/Reading 27 in 1972 TTN/Trenton 33 in 1919 ILG/Wilmington 32 in 1919 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070-071. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ060>062- 101>106. NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ014-023. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015>022-027. DE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DEZ001>003. MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ012-015-019- 020. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM NEAR TERM...RCM SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...OHara/RCM MARINE...OHara/RCM FIRE WEATHER...RCM CLIMATE...RCM ####018005516#### FXUS63 KMPX 260551 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Friday's system brings widespread rain and gusty winds to the region. The heaviest rain is expected Friday afternoon into Friday night. - There is a Marginal severe threat for overnight convection along the I-90 corridor in southern MN. Hail would be the primary concern. - A break in the active weather is anticipated Saturday, with another strong system expected to bring additional widespread rain on Sunday. - A more Summer-like warmth expected to start May, with an active weather pattern expected across the central CONUS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... Temperatures have warmed into the 60s and 70s across the region early this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are accompanied by gusty winds out of the south-southeast. A few sporadic gusts have been up to 40mph, particularly across portions of western Minnesota. We'll see an increase in mid-high level cloud cover this afternoon and evening as our first of two weekend systems takes shape in the Plains. RH values have largely stayed in the 30 to 35% range which has helped limit harsher fire weather conditions this afternoon. Tonight, showers will begin to spread across the area from west to east. Moisture advection will ramp up ahead of this and should limit our overnight low temperatures from falling much below 45 degrees. Friday will not be a complete wash out, but odds are the combination of gusty winds and periods of rain should limit any outdoor activities. Most locations should see a half inch to an inch of rain by Saturday morning with a few localized areas with heavier amounts due to convection. A few storms could turn severe along I-90 Friday evening and Friday night as MUCAPE values of 500-1000j/kg + move through along a frontal boundary. The sfc low track to our south will really limit what severe potential could be had yet colder temperatures aloft & elevated instability can pose a non zero hail threat. Saturday continues to be the best "weather day" of the weekend as we'll be between systems. Temperatures in the 70s appear likely with dew points remaining on the higher end due to Friday's rainfall + ongoing warm air advection ahead of Sunday's system. Sunday's forecast remains interesting as the low track is a bit further north than Friday's and that should put more of the region into the warm sector and thus a severe threat. Latest 12z guidance has possibly trended a touch further south with the track, but southern Minnesota will still need to monitor the potential Sunday afternoon. If we're able to see meaningful instability build into our region then we'll likely see severe potential develop. Shear will be favorable and timing isn't awful. On top of potential severe another round of widespread rain will move through. An additional half inch to inch falls with total amounts from both systems between 1 to 2" with locally higher amounts where convection tracks. We'll dry out on Monday with a brief "cool down". Tuesday through Thursday... This period remains unsettled with model spread suggesting the potential for additional precipitation mid- week. There is a reasonable signal for another shortwave to move through but timing differences mean PoPs are smoothed out Tuesday through Thursday. ECMWF would suggest better chances for precip and thunder Thursday and Friday ahead of a SW CONUS trough. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 GOES satellite imagery captures mid to high level cloud cover moving into southwest Minnesota early this morning. Ceilings will begin to lower and rain chances will increase at all TAF sites later this morning. Initial round of low VFR/high MVFR -SHRA will move in around/shortly after daybreak. Latest hi-res models have captured an expected lull in the precipitation after the morning round, prior to another round of showers and potential storms. Ceilings are forecast to continue to lower through the afternoon, with the some sites dropping below 1k feet by the evening. Have included PROB30s at MKT and MSP, where convection lifting north out of Iowa may still be organized enough to pose a thunderstorm threat. Gusty southeast winds will be the theme at all terminals through the period. KMSP...Showers arrive after daybreak and will persist through the morning before a break in the activity for the afternoon. Despite the expected dry period, ceilings will lower to MVFR by 17/18z. Have maintained the PROB30 for -TSRA for the potential of thunderstorms featured in the hi-res guidance during the evening hours. Unsettled weather will keep showers around well into tonight, though dry weather and improvements to the ceiling should arrive after 09z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR. -SHRA likely early and overnight. Chc IFR/TS overnight. Wind SW 15G25 kts becoming NW. SUN...MVFR/-SHRA, chance IFR/TS. Wind NE 10-15G25 kts. MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...Strus ####018006149#### FXUS61 KCTP 260551 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 151 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry cool and dry conditions with widespread frost and freeze conditions expected Friday morning. Clouds will increase late Friday leading to a chance of showers Friday night and into the weekend before it turns much warmer for Sunday and even warmer still for most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... The thicker of the high clouds are slipping to the SE and revealing only a small patch of lower clouds in Somerset/Bedford. However, lots of guidance expands this patch of clouds through the night with help from the gently upsloping SSE flow. Overall, the current forecast covers this. Now, the temps are trailing the forecast dip by a few degs. The dewpoints are still very low across the nrn half of the CWA. That should allow them to catch up. The main trouble with temps right now is the SE where temps are the clouds have just dissipated/left and there was recently a 20KT gust at LNS. Dewpoints there are still in the u30s. But, we expect the temps in the SE to get back on track shortly as the pressure gradient relaxes. Will continue to hold all the frost/freeze flags as is. There is the potential for some AM fog in the SE, too, with those higher dewpoints. Lack of recent rainfall is a negative for fog, though. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Friday will be another fair day under the influence of retreating high pressure, with return flow freshening over western areas, and especially the Laurel Highlands. Rain free wx conditions will continue with morning sun mixing with high clouds throughout the day and max temps trending warmer into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Showers along a warm front are likely to move into the western Alleghenies very late Fri night or early Saturday morning based on the latest operational model/ens consensus. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An approaching warm front will result in a cloudy and relatively cool Saturday, with a chance of showers accompanying the passage of a weakening low level jet. Weak large scale forcing under an upper level ridge should result in minimal rainfall. Most likely rainfall by Sat PM based on ensemble plumes ranges from around 0.2 inches over the N Mtns, to just a few hundreths over the southeast counties. Brightening skies and markedly warmer conditions appear likely Sunday, as the warm front lifts north of the region. However, ensemble plumes indicate scattered PM convection is possible, especially over the N Mtns, where progged pwats are highest and temps aloft coolest. Fair and unseasonably warm weather is likely Monday, as anomalous upper level ridge crests over the state. Mean 850mb temps near 15C supports max temps in the low to mid 80s. All medium range guidance points to a good chance of PM convection Tuesday associated with the passage of a mid level shortwave. Diverging model solutions and greater uncertainty then creep into the forecast the second half of next week. Upper level ridging and above average temperatures look very likely. However, timing differences exist with regard to an upstream trough and associated cold front late next week. Expect a widespread round of convection to accompany the front either Thu PM or Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue across most of the area tonight under high pressure. The exception will be across southern portions of Central PA where lingering low level moisture could lead to some low cloud or fog formation. An area of low clouds currently to the south of the area are beginning to expand northward and will likely approach JST and AOO by 08Z. Most guidance suggests that those airfields will remain VFR through the night, but the HREF/SREF show a 20-40% chance of MVFR or potentially IFR ceilings developing at JST into the morning. Confidence in this outcome occurring is low, though. Any clouds and fog that form overnight will gradually decrease in coverage in the morning, though clouds could stick around slightly longer across the Laurel Highlands with light upslope flow. Otherwise, mainly clear skies are expected area-wide. An approaching warm front will lead to an increase in high clouds after 00Z Friday. Outlook... Sat...Scattered shra. IFR cigs possible Central Mtns. Sun...AM low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns. Isold PM tsra possible. Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Sct PM tsra impacts possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fuel moisture may fall below 10% over the next two days. With light winds today, the risk of fire spread remains very low. However, return flow around departing high pressure on Friday may increase the potential for spread on Friday afternoon. MinRH this afternoon (Thu) is forecast to drop to 15-25% over the northern half of the area with potential downside to 10%. MinRH over the southern tier districts along the MD line is forecast between 30-40%. The wind will <10 mph from the north/northeast. MinRH is forecast to recover a bit Friday afternoon bottoming in the 25-40% range. However, the wind will increase from the south southeast with gusts to 20 mph at times over the higher terrain along the southern Allegheny Plateau. Increasing low level moisture/dewpoints along with some rain will limit fire weather concerns this weekend. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-005-010- 011-017-018. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-024>028- 045-046-049>053-056-057-059-063-065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/NPB AVIATION...Bauco FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl ####018007972#### FXUS66 KMFR 260554 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1050 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion. .DISCUSSION...Another wave is moving onshore, which will bring behind it the bulk of the moisture from this system. The timing and intensity looks in line with the current forecast, so no changes were made. Friday morning snow levels still look to be at their lowest point, in the 4700 to 5200 foot range. However, snow related impacts should be very minimal because so far road temperatures have proven to be quite warm with snow melting on contact. Overnight temperatures will also continue to fall over the next 48 hours, so be sure to check your local forecast in the event you have any gardening related concerns. && .AVIATION (25/06Z TAFs)... MVFR ceilings are expected to continue along the coast through this TAF cycle and likely areas of IFR ceilings overnight, too. For all other areas, VFR will be the more dominate category with areas of MVFR in heavier showers. Cloud cover continue to cause mountain obstructions across the region, too. Friday afternoon, winds at least east of the Cascades are expected to become gusty. -Miles/CC && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM Thursday, April 25, 2024...A front is moving inland this evening. Behind the front, breezy to gusty west to southwest winds and steep fresh seas will continue tonight into Friday. While wind speeds gradually diminish late Friday afternoon and evening, steep west swell will result in seas hazardous to small craft. These conditions are likely to last into late Friday night. By Saturday afternoon, another front will push into the area, and seas may become chaotic once again into Saturday evening. Additionally, we are going into a rainy pattern with chances over the waters nearly every day in the forecast through middle next week. -CC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 453 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ DISCUSSION... Short Term...Tonight through Saturday Night...Currently, widespread showers cover much of southern Oregon and far northern California, with snow levels currently around 6000 feet. Shower activity will continue through this evening, then will reintensify as the upper level trough axis swings overhead tonight and tomorrow. As this occurs, snow levels will lower to 5000 feet, and snowfall rates will peak between roughly 2 AM through midday Friday. Amounts of 5 to 12 inches are forecast with highest amounts for the back country and highest elevations. Recent warmth is sure to limit amounts on roadways, but at the very least those traveling around Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, and Willamette Pass should be prepared for reduced visibilities. The highest peaks of the Siskiyou Mountains, Warner Mountains, and Siskiyou County can also expect to receive measureable accumulations. Precipitation will taper off Friday evening into Friday night, then after a short break Saturday morning as weak ridging passes overhead, the next shortwave arrives Saturday. This will be a quick moving and somewhat weak wave, but it will be the leading edge of sustained zonal onshore flow that will persist through at least Saturday night. This pattern is known to produce ongoing light showers, and this is no exception, although most precipitation will remain confined mainly along and west of the Cascades. Snow levels are expected to remain fairly consistent, throughout this time, hovering roughly around 5000 feet. Temperatures throughout the short term will remain right around normal for this time of year. -BPN LONG TERM...Sunday morning through Thursday night. This cool unsettled flow will continue into Sunday with the best chance of precipitation west of the Cascades and within Oregon. However, locations east of the Cascades and in northern California are anticipated to be dry. This is most likely due to weak forcing and a lack of moisture farther to the south under this zonal flow. This synoptic pattern will likely continue into Monday as short waves move through this zonal flow. Heading into Tuesday, 500 mb heights appear more zonal over Oregon as another short wave swings through the state of Washington. This appears to be the driest day as the chance of rain is generally below 15% everywhere except along the coast near Cape Blanco and Coos Bay. Given this drier trend, temperatures should push into the 70's in Medford, Grants pass and the upper 60's in other locations across our forecast area. Eventually, an upper level low out of the Gulf of Alaska will likely push into the Pacific Northwest around Wednesday. This should result in another round of wetting rain, although the NBM probability of precipitation of 0.01 inches over 12 hours only show a 50 to 60% chance of rain. Therefore, some of the ensemble members might show different times of arrival of the front on Wednesday night and Thursday morning or it is drier than what some of the deterministic data show. The other thing that this low will bring is some cooler more unstable air behind the cold front. This can be seen in the snow levels falling down to 4000 feet behind the front, which should eventually pass through sometime around Thursday. Even with plenty of solar heating, high temperatures are still anticipated to push into the lower 60's in many cities east and west of the Cascades. Overall, the extended forecast looks active yet with little to no impacts. We're lacking significant moisture or forcing to bring impactful rain or snow to the region. One may say it is very Spring like for our forecast area. -Smith AVIATION (25/00Z TAFs)... MVFR ceilings are expected to continue along the coast through this TAF cycle and likely overnight, too. For all other areas, VFR will be the more dominate category through this cycle. Rainfall could bring ceilings down to MVFR, but the region will move into a few hour lull in activity, before another wave move onshore around 6z. Cloud cover continue to cause mountain obstructions across the region, too. Winds have been gusting between 20 and 30 kt this afternoon and it is expected for them to lower before the start of the 06z TAF cycle. Friday afternoon though, winds at least east of the Cascades are expected to become gusty again. -Miles MARINE...Updated 200 PM Thursday, April 25, 2024...A small craft advisory remains in effect for all of the waters as a front continues to make its way onshore today. The northern waters will experience the strongest wind speeds with a couple isolated areas perhaps seeing gales this afternoon. The front also brought widespread rainfall to the area earlier today, but rainfall over the waters has diminished quite a bit. In fact, satellite is indicating some clearing in our western waters, and we are likely to see a lull in activity over the waters until later tonight into Friday morning when the next round of rainfall is anticipated. While wind speeds diminish tomorrow, swell remains over the waters and will keep seas hazardous to small craft. These conditions are likely to last into Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, another front will push into the area, and seas may become chaotic once again. Additionally, we are going into a rainy pattern with chances over the waters nearly every day in the forecast through middle next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM PDT Friday above 5000 feet for ORZ027-028. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$