####018004721#### FXUS64 KMAF 111705 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1105 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1055 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday before a stronger cold front (briefly) brings much cooler temperatures on Sunday. - Dry conditions persist through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Skies are mostly clear across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this morning. Post-frontal high pressure is currently propagating eastward beyond our area, and as a result winds have shifted back to a southerly/southwesterly direction. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly flow aloft persists over the region. Despite the break from unseasonably warm temperatures yesterday, the redevelopment of return flow and increased atmospheric thickness allows highs to bounce back into the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s today. Meanwhile, lows tonight tick back up into the upper 30s and low-to-mid 40s for most locations. Friday morning, another front makes its way south into our area. Guidance indicates this front will be weaker than yesterday's front, both in terms of windiness and its impact on temperatures. Highs Friday will be nearly identical to Thursday's due to the generally diffuse nature of the front as it makes its way across our region. Nevertheless, temperatures in the far northern Permian Basin manage to drop about 3-5 degrees lower than today's (upper 60s, which is still about 10 degrees above seasonal norms). Meanwhile, temperatures closer to the Rio Grande end up about 5 degrees warmer than today's. Yet again, the Short Term period remains dry, with no rain chances to be seen. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Northwesterly flow aloft associated with ridging from the west and southwesterly downsloping flow at the surface persists on Saturday. These features will result in well-above normal highs, with temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s for most. However, this will be short-lived as a cold front pushes through the area late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. As a result, afternoon highs on Sunday struggle to reach 50 degrees across the Permian Basin and higher terrain. Elsewhere, most locations see highs in the 50s (except 60s in the lower terrain near/along the Rio Grande). The spread in Sunday's high temperatures amongst ensemble guidance has decreased significantly, yielding higher confidence in the forecast. Temperatures rebound early next week as westerly flow aloft and southerly (Monday) to southwesterly (Tuesday) winds return to the region once again. Expect warmer temperatures on Tuesday owing to the downsloping component of the wind, with highs potentially climbing back into the 70s. Guidance continues to suggest the development of lee troughing early next week, potentially bringing breezy conditions on Monday and Tuesday. At this time, above-normal tempertures look to persist by the middle of next week due to quasi- zonal flow aloft and westerly downsloping flow near the surface. Precipitation chances remain nil throughout the extended. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light (5-10 kts) southerly to southwesterly winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts are anticipated through the afternoon. Winds decrease near sunset (23Z). Winds shift to the northwest late tonight as a front approaches the region and will eventually become breezy out of the northeast near the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 40 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 43 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 44 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 76 47 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 43 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 71 42 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 68 36 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 70 42 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 69 43 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 39 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...11 ####018006904#### FXUS63 KGLD 111707 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1007 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue. - Warm temperatures return for one day only! Record highs possible Thursday. - Large temperature gradient across the area over the weekend, with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and milder temperatures in Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 115 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 The upper ridge axis that has been nearly stationary over the western CONUS moves into the northern Rockies and amplifies by Saturday, continuing the northwest flow downstream into the central plains. The main storm track remains across the northern plains and no precipitation is expected. After a mild day today with highs around 70, another cold front will move through this evening. The front looks to clear the area by 09z with light northerly winds in its wake. Models do not show any fog and only a few patchy low clouds across southwest Nebraska Friday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 30s. High clouds continue to stream across the area on Friday with high temperatures mainly in the 40s, perhaps some lower 50s in northeast Colorado, then dropping into the 20s for lows Friday night. Another reinforcing surge of shallow cold air backs into the area on Saturday with northeast winds by the afternoon. This will result in a large temperature gradient across the area, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in McCook and Norton to around 60 in western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. The cold air settles into the area Saturday night with lows mainly in the teens. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 Starting the extended period Sunday, a cooler air mass in wake of cold front is forecast to be in place across the area with temperatures in the single digits to mid teens across the area. GFS suggests that fog/stratus may still remain in place as high low level humidity is seen across the area via 00Z GFS cross section analysis. Not seeing any low level omega leading me to believe that any drizzle/freezing drizzle is not likely; but with temperatures still below breezing will need to watch for freezing fog potential. Guidance suggests that a trough will move through the area at some point during the morning which will shift winds to the southwest and start a warmup with downsloping winds. There are discrepancies still within guidance of that so if the trough is delayed then temperatures, especially across the west may be 3-5 degrees cooler than currently forecast. There continues to be a 25-30% chance that Norton and Graham counties do not get above freezing for the day and a 10-15% chance back towards the counties along of Highway 25. The 00Z ECMWF AIFS is in good agreement with around 90% of its members showing the cooler air mass linger in place across the area through the day leading towards the cooler temperatures. To me that seems like the most reasonable scenario especially if we do get the fog/stratus hanging around for the day and the fact the colder air masses typically do end up getting shunted further west than what guidance depicts, so I have nudged temperatures down a few degrees to account for this. There continues to be a 25-30% chance that Norton and Graham counties do not get above freezing for the day and a 10-15% chance back towards the counties along of Highway 25. There are discrepancies still within the GEFS that the trough moves through quicker warming temperatures more, if thats the case then I may be to low on temperatures. Into the new work week, split flow returns to the area resulting in mild temperatures into the 50s and 60s to return again and our dry conditions continuing. Confidence is pretty high in this pattern occurring. There area few disturbance moving through the area that may bring some wind gusts of 20-25 mph during the afternoon so we may need to keep an eye on some fire weather potential during this time frame as humidity values are already forecast in the upper teens to low 20s with the lowest along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Current probabilities are 20-25% chance of 25+ mph gusts across eastern Colorado early Monday afternoon and increasing to 30-40% chance across Kit Carson and Yuma county Tuesday from a weak disturbance off of the Cheyenne Ridge. No precipitation is expected through mid week with this dry air mass in place. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF show a low pressure system across the Plains with the 00z GFS across the northern Plains/southern Canada and the ECWMF across central Nebraska. The 00Z GEFS is further south a little closer to the ECMWF which does bear some merit to the deterministic ECMWF. But actually shows it being a little slower and closer to the weekend than mid week. If the ECMWF is on to something then we could potentially be looking at windy conditions and perhaps some light precipitation potential towards the mid to latter part of the week next week. If the system take a northerly track then it will end up being more of a nuisance to nothing notable for the region. Still with so much spread and this still being a week out a lot can and will change and there are differences with the 18 and 06Z runs of the strength of the ECMWF wind field but still warrants watching. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 945 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail until Friday morning. This afternoon, northwesterly winds will be gusting in the 20-30 kts range. A brief 35-40 kts gust cannot be ruled out around 19-22Z for both locations. Per usual, winds will weaken around sunset. Starting around 10-15Z Friday, ceilings will be lowering as clouds from the north move in. By 13-15Z, both locations will see cloud bases around 1,000-2,000 feet AGL, likely leading to MVFR ceilings. GLD has a higher likelihood of MVFR ceilings than KMCK. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Thursday, we will be getting close to setting some high temperature records across the area. Location Old Record Year Forecast High Hill City, KS 72 1939 72 McCook, NE 66 2004 68 Burlington, CO 80 1939 71 Goodland, KS 77 1939 71 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...CA CLIMATE...CA ####018003297#### FXUS64 KSJT 111709 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1109 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low temperatures expected to fall to around freezing tonight across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau. - Cold frontal passage Saturday night with cooler temperatures Sunday. - Dry forecast through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 134 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Expect dry and warmer conditions today across the area. Low pressure developing across the Central Plains will result in low level south to southwest flow with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph this afternoon across the Big Country and Concho Valley. Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Expect clear skies tonight with morning lows staying mainly above freezing, upper 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 134 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Friday and Saturday. A weak cold front will move through the area on Friday, but will have little effect on temperatures. Highs on both Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. An upper level trough will track across the Northern Plains late Saturday, sending a cold front south through West Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning. This front will usher in much cooler temperatures along with gusty northeast winds. Morning lows will start off in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the Big Country to the mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere. These temperatures combined with gusty northeast winds will result in wind chill values in the upper teens to to mid 30s. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s for most locations. Cloud cover is forecast to increase overnight, ahead of the next approaching upper level trough. The increasing cloud cover should help to minimize a sharp drop in temperatures overnight, but still expect overnight lows in the 30s for most locations, with lows near 40 across the Interstate 10 corridor. A steady warming trend is then expected through the middle of next week. Highs on Monday will be in the 60s, with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday back into the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions will are expected across all terminals through the next 24 hours, with breezy south to southwesterly winds through this afternoon becoming light and variable overnight tonight. Winds are expected to become breezy again across KSJT and KABI late tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 47 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 71 43 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 71 42 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 70 40 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 72 47 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 69 41 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 69 45 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...TP ####018005344#### FXUS64 KEPZ 111709 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures through Saturday. - A back door cold front will bring some breezy to windy conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning, with temperatures cooling about 7-15 degrees Sunday and Monday. - Near record highs possible again by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 The Borderland will remain dry through the next 7 days with northwest flow transitioning to a weak upper ridge for the weekend with a back door cold front then back to W to NW flow. Heights rising going into Saturday will lead to a gradual warmup from already above average temperatures. Near record highs or even a few broken records are possible Fri/Sat. Record at ELP Sat is 74, so that is not out of the question with the westerly surface winds. Dry air at the surface will continue to lead to cool mornings in the 20s and 30s. Sat night into Sun, a back door cold front will push in from the east and drop highs about 8 to 15 degrees with the biggest cool down out east. NAM is the strongest with the east winds behind the front but the GFS is slowly trending up. The NAM has a better track record with these fronts and did push west slope winds up about 10KTS from what the NBM had. Think 15-25G35MPH is a definite possibility with gusts in the typical windy locations even stronger. Out on the Lordsburg Playa, it does look like a windy Sunday with similar winds and possible blowing dust. An upper trough will approach the Four Corners region Monday and move through by late Tuesday. The strength of the system over the eastern half of the US pushes northerly winds well into the Gulf and limits the moisture getting into the area and it won't be deep enough for any precipitation. This trough will keep temps close to Sunday highs going into Tuesday which are still at or above normal. Westerly flow kicks in by midweek and temps will warm back up to near record highs. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 P6SM SKC-FEW250 with light west winds turning more north to northeast overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the period. The warmest temperatures will be Fri/Sat before a back door cold front pushes in to drop highs around 10 degrees. Min RH's will be mainly in the teens to lower 20s through Sat but jump into the 20s and 30s for Sun/Mon before dropping back off again. Winds will be light through Sat but will be breezy to low end windy Sun behind the front. Poor vent rates Fri with a little improvement for Sat to Fair in mountain zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 40 73 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 42 69 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 70 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 35 70 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 53 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 40 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 40 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 35 73 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 35 71 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 38 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 32 73 31 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 36 75 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 34 68 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 35 73 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 35 70 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 39 71 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 30 70 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 34 72 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 38 73 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 34 71 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 29 64 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 25 62 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 67 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 40 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 34 70 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 68 26 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 36 69 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 28 71 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 26 69 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 40 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 36 71 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 73 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 38 72 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz ####018008890#### FXUS61 KBOX 111710 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1210 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder air works into the region today and tonight on westerly wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. Wind chills will drop to between 5 below and 10 above tonight. Cold and blustery conditions continue Friday...but a ridge of high pressure allows winds to diminish Friday night and Saturday despite the continuation of chilly temperatures. A period of snow is possible late Saturday night into Sunday...but that remains uncertain and depends if low pressure tracks far enough north. Regardless...another shot of arctic air follows Sunday night into Monday with wind chills dropping to between 5 below and 10 above. A pattern change is expected by the middle of next week resulting in significantly milder temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages * Wind Advisory expanded to include the rest of our county warning area * Steep pressure gradient and strong low level jet brings widespread 35-50 mph gusts * Cold and blustery conditions will support single digit wind chill temperatures Thursday night Strong CAA regime will bring a period of strong, and even locally damaging wind gusts today and tonight. Guidance continues to show average winds of 35 knots in a well- mixed PBL tomorrow. Wind speeds at the top of the PBL may even increase to as high as 50-55 mph later today. BUFKIT soundings have maximum mixed layer heights between 4-6 kft and 1000-850mb lapse rates >9C/km. In short, all ingredients are there for a strong wind event with peak gusts in the 35-40 knot range for much of Southern New England. As a result, opted to expand the wind advisory for all locations through Friday morning. In addition to the strong winds, we'll see a significantly colder temperatures Thursday. High temps peak in the 30s around midnight Thursday then bottom out in the middle to lower teens Friday morning. Low temperatures combined with strong west/northwest winds will result in wind chill readings falling to the the single digits Friday morning for much of the region except for the Cape and Islands where readings will be closer to the lower teens. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Wind advisory will remain in effect through 15z Friday as the strongest part of the LLJ moves offshore. Expecting a frigid start to the day with NW winds around 20-40 mph leading to wind chills in the single digits above and below zero with the coldest values in the higher terrain. Slow improvements in wind chills through the day with gradually warming temperatures. . && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages... * Dry & chilly Fri night into Sat with lows mainly in the teens and highs generally in the 30s...but parts of RI/SE MA may approach 40 * A period of snow possible late Sat night-Sun if low pressure tracks far enough north...but that still remains uncertain * Another shot of arctic air follows later Sun/Sun night with windy conditions and high temps Mon only reaching the 20s * Still cold Mon night-Tue with highs in the upper 20s-middle 30s with perhaps a few brief snow showers * Pattern change with a warming trend expected Wed and especially Thu when highs may reach well into the 40s to near 50 Details... Friday night and Saturday... A weak ridge of high pressure to our south will take control of our weather. The result will be dry weather with relatively light winds. Low temperatures will mainly be in the teens Fri night with highs on Sat generally in the 30s...but some places across RI/SE MA may approach 40. Saturday night and Sunday... There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty later Sat night and Sun depending on the track of a fast moving low pressure system. If the system tracks far enough we will see a period of snow...but it may stay far enough south where most if not all our region remains dry. Regardless...this does not look like a big event but certainly the risk for a few inches of snow if this system ends up tracking far enough north. The guidance has been struggling with this over the past couple of days. Strong northern stream shortwave energy will be diving southeast across the Great Lakes. Timing and amplitude of this shortwave will impact how far north low pressure emerging off the mid-Atlantic coast will track. Currently...most of the guidance has just a glancing blow mainly south of I-90 and the greatest risk near the south coast. However...certainly would not take much of a bump northward to bring the risk for a few inches of snow to much of southern New England. This scenario is shown by the 00z NAM as well as some of the individual GEFS/EPS/CMC ensembles. So in a nutshell...the northern extent of this snow shield remains uncertain. We probably need a few more model runs to sort this out. Regardless of what happens...this system will be progressive so not expecting a major event. Sunday night into Monday... Regardless of what happens with the low pressure system Sat night into Sun...a cold front will usher in another short of arctic air Sun night into Mon. Low temps Sun night should bottom out mainly in the high single digits and teens with highs on Mon mainly in the 20s. Windy conditions will result in wind chills dropping into the 5 below to 10 above range late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Monday night and Tuesday... Still cold Mon night and Tue but with diminishing wind. Some of the guidance indicates a shortwave that may result in a few snow showers. Otherwise...Lows Monday night mainly in the teens with highs Tuesday in the upper 20s to the middle 30s. Wednesday and Thursday... Appears most of the long range guidance is an agreement in a pattern change. A developing -PNA allows more of a zonal flow of Pacific air to work across the U.S. Highs probably reach into the 40s across much of the region Wed with perhaps some areas reaching 50 by Thu. So this will be significantly milder weather than what we have been experiencing so far in December. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Through tonight...High Confidence VFR. Westerly wind gusts of 30-40 knots continue through tonight. A few gusts up to 45 knots possible especially in the high terrain. Friday...High Confidence VFR. Westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today Through Friday...High confidence. Strong CAA brings westerly gales for all the waters continuing through Friday. Near storm force westerlies tonight into Friday morning. Gales gradually relax after 18z Friday afternoon. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Snow likely, chance of rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>024-026. RI...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-251. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/FT NEAR TERM...FT SHORT TERM...FT LONG TERM...Frank AVIATION...McMinn MARINE...Frank/FT