####018003961#### FXUS63 KGRR 111710 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1210 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake Effect Snow into the Weekend - Cold Temperatures this Weekend into Monday - Potential Warm Up Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Lake Effect Snow into the Weekend Northwest winds off of Lake Michigan will bring lake effect snow and flurries to the area today. The better bands are to the north with the combined moisture and fetch of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Areas along and north of US-10 have the potential to see the southern ends of these bands today, however accumulations will be light with amounts of an inch or less. Tonight a system will pass largely to the south, but far southwest Michigan could get clipped with snow late tonight into Friday morning. Little to no accumulation is expected. A better shortwave moves through Friday evening into Saturday morning bringing with better low level moisture and a colder air mass over Lake Michigan. The dendritic growth zone will be closer to the surface limiting synoptic lift in this area along with an inversion preventing the moisture profile from becoming deep. Lapse rates will be decent along the lakeshore with computed instability off of the lake temperatures around 300 J/kg. The 25th to 75th percentiles show most of the lakeshore seeing 1 to 3 inches, with a 30 percent chance of seeing 4 inches or more. The better potential for these higher amounts will be in Ottawa Allegan, Kalamazoo, and Van Buren Counties in the south and Ludington County to the north. We'll have to watch for a slight change in the wind direction as that will impact where those higher probabilities set up. As we continue Saturday afternoon into Sunday the air mass becomes colder with steeper laps rates, but the dendritic growth zone will be at the surface. Shallower moisture and with lift better above the dendritic growth zone will limit amounts. - Cold Temperatures this Weekend into Monday The bulk of our cold arrives Saturday with 925 mb temperatures around -15C resulting in highs in the teens and lows in the single digits with some spots potentially dropping below zero. Wind chills will be in the single digits above and below zero throughout the day Saturday. Temperatures slightly improve Sunday with highs in the low 20s with wind chills in the single digits to low teens. Similar conditions are expected Monday. - Potential Warm Up Next Week Temperatures look to warm after Monday with high temperatures rising above freezing for Wednesday and Thursday. There is a concern with these warmer temperatures as there are a few shortwaves that move through the flow. Depending on timing will impact the precipitation type. If we see any rain, there will be a concern for freezing rain due to the cold ground temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 MVFR cigs will improve to VFR late this afternoon into the evening. However, there is a decent signal (40% chance) that MVFR cigs redevelop late this evening into the overnight hours, especially for LAN and GRR. The other uncertainty is the potential for steam fog development overnight with the light winds. Good signal among short range model guidance for potential steam fog development at GRR and LAN, supported by forecast hydrolapse profiles. Have introduced high MVFR/low VFR mist at present and will adjust if needed as confidence changes. Gusts to 20 knots are possible for a few hours at LAN and JXN this afternoon before winds become light and variable. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Thomas ####018006377#### FXUS63 KLSX 111710 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous cold is expected this weekend. The most brutal wind chills will be north of I-70 Sunday morning. - Light snow will glance portions of northeast Missouri and central/west- central Illinois this afternoon into tonight. The chance of significant impacts is low, but a small shift southwest could result in accumulations of 1"-2". - Measurable snow is expected (80 - 100%) north of I-70 on Saturday. Any snow that falls will stick and cause travel impacts. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 The focus for today - Friday is the potential for light snow in northeast Missouri southeastward through south-central Illinois in a corridor roughly extending from Quincy, IL to Salem, IL and northeast. The clipper responsible for the snow has been trending southwest over the past day or so, placing the stripe of higher snow accumulations on our northeastern doorstep. The latest 00z 12/11 HREF notably does not continue this southwestward trend, and the 00z LREF actively pushes it back north. The majority of CAMs reflect this as well, having the snow gradient just along our border with higher reflectivity glancing in every now and again. This gradient is expected to be tight, so where it places does matter. The latest HREF LPMM gives us an idea of an "extreme" scenario. Currently this extreme is completely northeast of our CWA, which reflects the decreasing probabilities of 24 hour snowfall >1" (20 - 30% from 30 - 50%). However, the footprint is not gospel, and may (although not climatologically favored) still shift southwest. It would only need to shift a couple dozen miles to dramatically increase the chance of accumulating snow. In this case, 1-2" will be possible in the aforementioned corridor. Very brief periods of sleet are also possible with any snow that falls, but are not expected to cause impacts. Jaja && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 A brutal, anomalously cold airmass will follow the Thursday night clipper. Temperatures will begin to fall as early as Friday night, but the brunt of the cold will be felt Saturday night through Sunday night with an emphasis on Saturday night. The once warming NBM has consistently cooled over the past 2 days, with KUIN dropping from a Sunday forecast high of 15-20 degrees to a new high of 9. Given the strength of the Arctic air (850 mb temps within the 10th percentile of climatology) and the strength of the surface high pressure (97.5th percentile of climatology), and the increasing likelihood of a snowpack, I think the NBM is on the right track, even if its Saturday and Sunday night lows are still above the 50th percentile. Despite potentially having more room to drop, Saturday's forecast overnight lows and wind chills will be bitterly cold. LREF probabilities of 6am Sunday wind chills <-10F have increased to 80 - 100% for nearly everywhere north of I-70/I-64. The chance of wind chills reaching -20F has increased as well, now 40 - 70% extending from about Kirksville, MO to Centralia, IL and northeast. There are also indications among guidance that Sunday night will be colder than currently forecast, but the chance of reaching -10F again is much lower. Daytime Sunday will not provide much relief to the cold. Highs at KUIN and KSTL are approaching record cold high territory, with KUIN forecast to reach 9 degrees (Record: 7 - 1989) and KSTL to reach 15 (Record: 13 - 1903). Wind chills around KUIN will remain below 0 for most if not all of the day, potentially creating an extended period of negative wind chills lasting from Saturday afternoon into Monday morning. Ahead of the cold is another chance of snow during the day Saturday with no potential for mixed precipitation. The track of this storm has shifted south and broadened in the past 24 hours. The ECMWF, GEPS, and Canadian all bring the system well into the northern half of the CWA with a 100% chance of measurable snow. Soundings show strong lift within a deep DGZ, and an isothermal layer just colder than the most efficient temperature range for maximum aggregation. This supports high SLRs and efficient accumulating where snow does fall. The LREF now shows a 70 - 90% chance of 1" of snow over 24 hours in portions of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois, dropping to 30% when upped to 2". Given the LREF calculates these probabilities using SLRs = 10:1 and SLRs are trending closer to 15:1, I think the chances of reaching 1-2" of accumulation are higher. However, I don't have much certainty in exactly how much higher. Regardless, any snow that falls will stick and will not melt until early next week. The region will warm up quickly next week as mid-level ridging and low-level warm air advection take hold. Lows Monday night are forecast to be warmer than Sunday's highs. There is reasonably high confidence in at least some of the CWA reaching the 50s again on Wednesday, with the NBM 25th percentile high at St. Louis that day at 49 degrees. Jaja && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1101 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 A clipper system will move northwest to southeast across the region later today/this evening, with light snow expected in west-central Illinois (including KUIN). Visibilities may go briefly IFR in the steadier snow at KUIN, but mostly should be MVFR. Further south/southwest, dry weather is expected. Low stratus is expected to move southward behind the clipper late tonight into Friday morning. The lowest ceilings should be at KUIN (below 1 kft AGL), with bases closer to 2 kft AGL at the metro terminals. Central Missouri sites at this time should be far enough west to avoid this MVFR stratus, but it bears further watching. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018003661#### FXUS64 KLZK 111711 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 -Near to above normal conditions expected into Friday -Strong cold front brings some of the coldest air seen so far this season Saturday into Sunday...with warming conditions by the middle of next week -Wind chills will dip into the single digits and teens Sunday morning -Lows in the teens and 20s Sunday and Monday mornings -Mainly dry forecast through early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 The cold front that brought the breezy NW winds to the state on Wed has moved south of AR early this Thu morning...with SFC high pressure moving south into the state. This SFC high will shift east for this afternoon...with SRLY flow returning through Fri morning. This will allow temps to rebound back to around and even above normal today into Fri. A new front will push SE through the state by Fri afternoon...with temps dropping back to around normal for Sat. However...a much stronger cold front will surge south through the state Sat night into Sun morning. This front will bring some of the coldest air of the season so far to the region. Breezy NRLY winds will usher in much colder air to the state for Sun morning...with temps dipping into the teens and 20s by around sunrise Sun. These temps combined with breezy NRLY winds will allow for wind chill values to dip into the single digits and teens for most areas. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple spots get near 0 for wind chills Sun morning. SFC high pressure will settle across the region by Sun night into Mon morning...with winds relaxing. This will allow for lows Mon morning to be in the teens for most areas...with a couple spots potentially dropping into the single digits for lows. SRLY flow will return by Tue as upper level ridging moves over the region. Highs will rebound back to around and even above normal by the middle of next week. Chances for precipitation look very limited through the next week. However...there could be some small chances along the front Sat night across the far SERN sections of the state...mainly before the coldest air arrives. Another small chance for precip comes late in the forecast as a fast moving upper short wave passes east over the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Widepsread VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some mid to high level clouds will be present and surface winds will be out of the south and southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 54 42 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 58 39 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 58 44 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 56 41 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 56 41 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 57 43 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 58 43 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 56 41 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 53 41 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 56 41 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 59 39 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 55 38 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 54 41 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...73 ####018008159#### FXUS63 KJKL 111711 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1211 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A clipper system is on track to produce a widespread and impactful accumulating snow tonight into Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for this system over much of eastern Kentucky. - Another light to moderate snowfall is increasingly likely Saturday night and early Sunday. - An arctic airmass with well below normal temperatures moves into our region for Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1210 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025 Forecast remains on track, with most recent observational data being incorporated in to temperature forecasts. No major changes were made to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 845 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025 Winter Weather Advisories were cancelled as the substantive snow showers have departed. Forecast remains largely on track. Expect more clouds than sun today with high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday evening) Issued at 620 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025 Snow showers are diminishing from the northwest this morning as any Great Lakes moisture fetch is cut off, the low levels dry out, and cold air advection wanes behind last evening's cold front. Any additional roadway impacts from the departing activity will likely be confined largely to elevations above 1,500 feet. Temperatures are in the lower 30s across most of the area, except generally in the 20s above 1,500 feet. The latest weather maps show the cold front sliding off the Atlantic Seaboard while deep 500 hPa troughing is in place over the eastern CONUS around an ~502 dam parent low over the Ottawa Valley. A ridge of high pressure runs along the Mississippi River. Well upstream, a low is developing in the lee of the Rockies over Montana and Alberta, under robust vort max energy. That energy, along with its weak surface reflection, will dive southeast into the aforementioned 500 hPa trough today, crossing eastern Kentucky late tonight and Friday. A vast majority of the system's precipitation will be induced by isentropic upglide on the front end of the system. Model guidance consistently shows a WAA precipitation band developing out ahead of the low center and propagating southeast from the Dakotas, Upper Midwest, and Lower/Central Ohio Valley, leaving an ~150 to 200 mile wide northwest to southeast-oriented swath of light to moderate snow accumulation. Model guidance has been consistent in showing light to moderate snow amounts over the Big Sandy Basin and north of the Mountain Parkway near the center of the band, with more uncertainty further south and west due to potential shifts in the band's track and limited access aloft to the DGZ leading to low SLRs or even some light mixed precipitation. As the low moves through, precipitation appears to largely come to an end on Friday morning, and the system's cold front will bring little in the way of fanfare and only a subtle push of colder air late in the day. The Winter Weather Advisory for this system was extended further south to capture those counties favored to average at least 1 inch of snow accumulation, roughly coincident with the 11/00z HREF PMM snowfall. In sensible terms, look for leftover snow showers to taper to flurries between ~7 to 8 AM over southeast Kentucky. Clouds remain prevalent for much of the day, and it stays cool with highs only in the lower to middle 30s. Snow quickly develops from west to east after sunset this evening (~7 to 10 PM), while temperatures settle back into the upper 20s to lower 30s. The snow will gradually taper from southwest to northeast later in the night and on Friday morning (maybe ending as a brief mix). Snow is likely to persist longest in the northeast, likely leaving the highest amounts (2-4 inches) north of the Mountain Parkway and over the Big Sandy River Basin, dwindling to little in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. Even once precipitation tapers on Friday, clouds remain persistent. It will overall be milder, though, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 30s in the north to near 50 along the TN/KY border. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 416 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025 The extended forecast window opens with lingering, post-frontal upslope snow showers stemming from Fridays preceding clipper system. Weak surface high pressure is forecast to build into the area, but this will be very short-lived as extended model guidance and associated ensembles remain in strong agreement and maintain consistency regarding a subsequent fast-moving clipper system. This second system is projected to track across the central CONUS, reaching the CWA vicinity by late Saturday night into Sunday. Very few significant changes have occurred with respect to the temporal and spatial components of this incoming feature. The PoP is expected to increase Saturday afternoon. This system is generally forecast to maintain a more northerly track. With this northerly trajectory, the heaviest precipitation is concentrated north of the CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio River. However, of note, some model trends suggest a potential southward shift in the track, and a few guidance runs have hinted at this possibility. This potential shift would have significant consequences on anticipated snowfall totals, the placement of the freezing line, and which areas receive frozen versus liquid precipitation. Nonetheless, the highest snow accumulations are currently forecast along and north of a line from Powell to Pike Counties through Sunday morning, but this delineation could change should the feature shift north or south. Unseasonably cold surface high pressure will subsequently build into the region behind the departing low-pressure system on Sunday, advecting some of the coldest air of the season thus far through the early part of the succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is expected by the middle of next week, preceding the approach of another synoptic system for Wednesday. In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two distinct clipper systems. Lingering post-frontal snow showers will initiate the period from the first clipper, and a second fast-moving clipper is forecast for Saturday night into Sunday. There remains some uncertainty regarding total snowfall accumulations with the Saturday/Sunday system, but at a minimum, the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories will be necessary to cover this expected event. Strong surface high pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on Sunday, driving minimum temperatures down to the upper single digits and mid-teens. A notable warm advection regime ahead of the next system is forecast to commence by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 747 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025 MVFR ceilings, with a few breaks possible at times, will persist through the day. Another fast-moving clipper low will bring a period of steady snow tonight leading to deteriorating conditions this evening and early overnight. The worst conditions (IFR or worse) are anticipated over the northeastern half of the CWA, including JKL, SJS, and SYM. The precipitation will be lightest and of shortest duration near Lake Cumberland and heaviest and persistent north of the Mountain Parkway. Winds will be westerly at less than 10 kts today becoming light variable to southerly tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-088-104-106>115- 118>120. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GEERTSON ####018004124#### FXUS64 KMEG 111711 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the season from Saturday night through Monday, with wind chills dropping into the teens and single digits Sunday and Sunday mornings. - Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday, increasing rain chances for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Strong northwest flow is in place across the Midsouth. A gradually weakening surface low (currently 1003mb) will approach the middle Mississippi River valley Friday morning as a 1010mb system. A cold front associated with this low will sweep across the Midsouth during the day Friday. Ahead of the front, high temperatures tomorrow will be in the 50s to low 60s. The post- frontal airmass in continental in nature, so it will be cooler Saturday, but a secondary arctic front will usher in a bitterly cold air mass Saturday night. There is a chance of rain (20-50%) generally along and south of I-40 as the secondary front crosses Saturday evening, but precipitation should shift into central Mississippi before the colder air arrives. Therefore no freezing of frozen precipitation is expected. The air mass arriving Saturday night will originate from north central Canada and feature widespread single digit dewpoints and even some below zero across the region. Additionally, north winds between 10 and 15 mph will result in apparent temperatures between -1 and 5 along and north of the I-40 corridor. A 1044mb surface high will track from the Central Plains Sunday morning to the Appalachians by Monday, skirting just north of the Midsouth along its path. As a result, winds will weaken considerably Sunday night and apparent temperatures should be in the teens. Monday mornings low temperatures are expected to range from 11-18 degrees, but there is about a 10% chance (reasonable worst case scenario) that that range could be between 6 and 13 degrees. High temperatures Sunday will remain in the 20s across most of the Midsouth. Warmer temperatures return fairly quickly early next week as return flow strengthens across the central and lower Mississippi River Valley. All of the Midsouth should warm above freezing Monday, but most of the region will remain in the 40s. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will return to near normal as an upper level ridge will begin to center over the Mississippi Valley. While the southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures back to the forecast, it will also bring the return of moisture and increase rain chances beginning Tuesday night and continuing through midweek. JDS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Confidence is high (90-100%) for VFR conditions are expected over the next 24-30 hours. Light winds this morning are expected to develop and increase to 8-10 kts this afternoon into tonight at MEM, JBR, and eventually at MKL. There is high confidence (80- 90%) of LLWS at all TAF sites tonight shear of a cold front. LLWS will linger longest (through 13-14Z) at MKL and TUP. Winds will gradually veer to the NW on tomorrow as the front moves through. No precipitation is expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Southerly winds will return this afternoon. A slight increase in moisture should keep minimum relative humidity values around 40% or greater. An arctic cold front will cross the area Saturday evening bringing very dry and cool air. Minimum RH values beginning Sunday will hover around 30%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JDS ####018009707#### FXUS63 KLMK 111712 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1212 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A more significant wintry system is possible tonight into Friday morning, with a swath of 1 to 4" of snow expected for areas along and north of a Jasper, IN to Stanford, KY line. Travel impacts are likely along and north of this line Friday morning. The highest amounts will be north of I-64. * Saturday night into Sunday morning, another system will bring snowfall to similar areas as Thursday night. Amount of snowfall is still uncertain, but another swath of 1 to 3" is currently forecast. * Very cold airmass will move into the region on Sunday through Monday, as lows will be in the single digits and highs on Sunday in the teens and low 20s. Minimum wind chills may bottom out in the 10 below to 10 above zero range. * Temperatures will steadily warm Monday afternoon through mid next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 A few lingering flurries and/or light snow showers are persisting early this morning, although seeing an overall downward trend in this activity as the shortwave trough axis is passing, and we become more subsident. Lows should mostly bottom out in the 25 to 30 degree range this morning, with a fairly small diurnal range expected today, especially across the northern CWA. Given the heavy cloud cover, only expecting low to mid 30s across the northern half of the CWA. Across southern KY, look for upper 30s to low 40s. Overall, look for dry conditions most of the day, however our next snow maker lurks upstream. That snow maker comes later this evening into Friday morning as an Alberta Clipper quickly slides through the region. Overall the trend with this system has nudged southward, and have also increased snow totals a bit. Will be expanding the current Winter Weather Advisory southward with this issuance as a result. Deep moisture overspreads the area this evening with the column quickly saturating just after sunset. Forecast soundings show that any surface temps that will be hovering around or just above freezing should wet bulb to and just below freezing with saturation, making p-type pretty easy for this event as all snow. Perhaps some of the standard ice pellets you get with the onset of column saturation, but those won't last long if they occur. Overall, looks like a pretty good setup to accumulate with snowfall occurring after sunset, and ground/surface temps already pretty cold to start. Model analysis continues to show a good mid level frontogenetical component with this system, and cross section analysis also shows some weak symmetric stability (WSS), and some instances of conditional symmetric instability (CSI), that will allow for some more focused and more intense bands embedded within the broader precipitation shield. Given good saturation all the way through the DGZ, and these pockets of WSS/CSI do think we could see some brief 0.5" to 1" per hour rates, especially across our NE CWA. Overall, the timing of the most impactful snow looks to fall between 7 PM and 7 AM EST, but could linger over in the Bluegrass region until mid morning. So, ended the northern segment of the advisory a bit later where residence time will be a bit longer. Overall, expect areas north of I-64 could see a widespread 2-4" band, with perhaps some localized amounts nearing 5". We are flirting with Warning criteria up there if more widespread amounts over 4" occur, however given the time of day (overnight), and that most of the snow will have already fallen by the morning commute, feel this is a less impactful event overall. Also, clippers generally are more of an advisory level type of snow, so having trouble committing to full blown warning criteria snowfall until at least one more run of data comes in. Still could tweak the going headlines on the day shift if need be. The portion of the advisory that was added on the south end will call for a 1 to 3" range of snowfall, but will also come with the caveat that this is where some bust potential resides. As the surface low approaches, some warm advection could creep into the southern edge and affect SLRs pretty significantly. As a result, the residence time is much shorter for accumulating snow here. Hence the lower totals. It should be noted that gradients even within each county on the southern end of the advisory could be observed. In other words, some southern locations could get left out of snow, while the northern part of the county sees an inch or two. Nelson county KY would be a good example of that potential scenario. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 Friday Night - Monday... We'll enjoy a brief quiet stretch of weather Friday night through Saturday morning as the upstream pattern reloads with another approaching clipper system. Don't expect much in the way of a diurnal temperature range during this stretch as heavy cloud cover, a likely fresh snow pack (across our northern half at least), and slight cool to neutral advection keep temp ranges small. Overnight lows Friday night should range in the 20s, while highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 20s and low 30s I-64 and north, and mid to upper 30s across central KY. South KY may end up seeing low to mid 40s, which will create quite the gradient from N to S across the area. As similar trend in the data has occurred with clipper #2 tonight, as data is coming in more robust, and a bit farther south. This system is expected to follow a similar track to the first one, and looks to put down another swath of accumulating snowfall, mostly across the northern half of our CWA. At this point, this appears to be at least another solid advisory level snow (1 to 3" currently), and will monitor trends in the data. One thing to keep in mind is that there won't be much melting between round #1 and round #2 so could end up with a pretty decent snowpack by Sunday morning for areas along and north of I-64. This could play a role in just how cold temps get late weekend into early next week. Snowfall ends on Sunday with the quick hitting clipper exiting, however the fun will just be getting started from a temperature standpoint. Arctic high pressure looks to build in across much of the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system, bringing the coldest air of the season to us so far. Currently have low temperatures on Sunday morning dipping into the single digits across the fresh snowpack to low teens across southern KY. These temps combined with a steady NW wind will help create wind chills in the 10 below zero to 10 above zero range from N to S. These values would support a Cold Weather Advisory for at least some, if not all of our CWA Sunday morning. After highs mostly in the teens on Sunday, Sunday night into Monday low may even be colder with high pressure settling near or over top of us. Looking for most lows in the 0 to 10 above range, with perhaps some negative values across our north. The good news is that winds will be lighter with the surface high near or over us. Still, may need to keep a Cold Weather Advisory going through Monday morning as well. Monday Night - Wednesday... Dry conditions continue through early week with the arctic high pressure losing hold by mid week. Temps will begin to slowly moderate during this time, but conditions will stay dry at least through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, some cold rain showers could return by overall confidence is low by this time period. Looking for highs in the 35 to 45 degree range on Tuesday, and more solidly in the 40s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 Low stratus deck over the region is moving across the area, though some improvement to cigs is expected for this afternoon. However, VFR will only last a few hours, with lowering cigs and deteriorating conditions for this evening as a clipper system brings accumulating snow for most of the terminals overnight. BWG is expected to be the least impacted, with wintry precip chances unlikely, and cigs expected to remain VFR through the period. However, impacts to flight ops are expected for SDF, LEX, HNB, and RGA tonight. We'll see -SN spread east after 23-00z this evening, with bands of briefly heavy snow capable of dropping vis down to 1-2SM overnight. Cigs could also drop to IFR or MVFR for an extended period of time. Snow will gradually taper off from west to east through the morning, with lingering IFR/MVFR through the rest of the forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ031>037-040>043-049. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for KYZ029-030-038-039-045>048-055>057-067. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for INZ076>079-091-092. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for INZ083-084-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...CJP ####018004837#### FXUS64 KTSA 111712 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Locally elevated fire weather concerns today due to low relative humidities and strong, gusty winds. - Roller coaster temperatures into early next week, with multiple cold fronts set to move through the region. - The strongest cold front in the period moves through late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Single digit wind chill values Sunday morning north of I-40. - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Limited to locally elevated fire weather concerns exist this afternoon given the continued dry low levels and return to well above normal temperatures today aided by the development of strong southwesterly, downslope winds. The current forecast targets a small portion of east central Oklahoma /namely parts of southern Creek, Okfuskee and western Okmulgee counties/ for the worst combination of parameters, including 75th to 85th percentile ERC values. Conditions will improve late afternoon into the evening with the loss of daytime heating and an expected decrease in wind speeds /albeit a modest one/. Attention then turns to the next cold front, which will move through late tonight/early Friday morning. Winds will shift to a northerly direction and increase in speed for areas north of I-44 by daybreak Friday, although morning temperatures should remain on the high side for this time of year in most locales. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 The aforementioned cold front will continue to move southward into the day Friday, likely clearing the entire area by midday. A gradient in daytime temperatures is likely to occur, with above normal values hanging on for the southern half of the area and noticeably cooler values for the northern half, especially when considering the increase in wind speeds behind the front. Wind speeds and gusts have been adjusted upward from the NBM initialization using the NBM 75th percentile values for sustained speeds and by mixing in the 90th percentile for the gusts. Light southerly winds will make a return Saturday to portions of the area but not enough to lead to much of a warmup in most areas compared to Friday. There remains a very low chance of light precipitation Saturday afternoon and evening in southeast Oklahoma and perhaps into west central Arkansas, with the overall chance remaining below mentionable levels for now. The much advertised strong cold front remains on track to move into the area beginning late afternoon Saturday and continuing into Saturday night. Data trends continue to point more toward the colder solutions, with forecast temperatures combined with strong and gusty winds behind the front leading to apparent temperatures Sunday morning in the single digits for areas north of I-40. Wind speeds and gusts behind the front have been adjusted upward using a similar process to those with the Friday front. The center of the surface high behind the front will pass well to the north and east of the area, with the surface ridge axis pushing through Sunday night. Southerly winds will return to much of the area by daybreak Monday and likely a non-diurnal low temperature trend Sunday night and into Monday in most spots. The post-frontal airmass looks to be cold enough that highs on Monday should still be below normal despite the south winds. However, above normal temperatures look to return by Tuesday and certainly by Wednesday, continuing through the end of the work week given a reduced meridional flow component in the upper level pattern. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to southwest winds will gust over 20 knots at times today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 40 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 63 39 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 64 41 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 65 37 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 60 40 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 58 42 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 63 40 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 60 38 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 F10 65 40 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 61 40 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...05 ####018007061#### FXUS62 KCAE 111714 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1214 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected to continue through Saturday with near to slightly below normal daytime temperatures. A cold front crosses the region Saturday night and Sunday morning ushering in an arctic air mass for Sunday night into early next week. Weak ridging should then allow for air mass recovery by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Remaining dry rest of the day with cool overnight lows near freezing. Cloud cover from this morning has moved off the coast as the base of the upper trough is currently moving overhead and surface high pressure from the west ridges in. A couple gusts toward 20 mph were seen this morning but as the pressure gradient continues to loosen, these gusts will diminish through the rest of the day with lighter northwest winds. Cold advection behind the front should limit highs toward the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon before temperatures then drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight under mostly clear skies. The fairly dry air mass in place should preclude any fog formation tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Dry conditions continue Friday and Saturday with near normal daytime temperatures. - A cold front approaches Saturday night with a chance of rain. The forecast looks quite pleasant on Friday and Saturday before the bottom falls out temperature wise on Sunday night. A nice little clipper system is forecast to follow the robust mid-level thermal gradient across the Ohio Valley tonight and into Friday. This is expected to result in increased southwest flow across the area, with breezy winds expected during the afternoon hours. Temperatures should moderate well, with highs generally in the upper 50s, with some in the mid 50s or low 60s. Saturday looks fairly similar as we will be in the warm sector of a developing surface low. The deep, upper trough forcing this is the parent system expected to bring our arctic airmass to the area. Clouds are forecast to increase by Saturday night, with guidance showing some scattered rain showers pushing across the area ahead of a front. Sunshine is expected much of Saturday, though, with temps in the low to mid 60s across the area. Lows should be elevated in the upper 40s on Saturday night given the clouds and rain chances. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key message(s): - Arctic cold front crosses the FA on Sunday with the coldest air of the season thus far filtering in Sunday night. - Very cold air remains in place Monday and Monday night with gradual air mass recovery Tuesday and Wednesday. The key message in the long term remains unchanged. An early season, arctic airmass is forecast to overspread the area behind a stout cold front. The air associated with this will bring near record lows to the area on Monday and Tuesday night, with temperatures unlikely to get out of the 30s for highs on Monday. A cold front will continue to approach and slowly move through the area on Sunday afternoon and evening. Behind this is a really robust, cold high pressure with an airmass that will be near record cold for this time of year. The synoptic pattern favors this, from a fairly robust early season snow pack across the northern Plains to very strong subsidence between a deep trough and an anomalously strong ridge pushing in from the west. I noted that there were two scenarios yesterday amongst the Ensemble clusters, and scenario 1 (deeper trough, stronger surface high overspreading the area) seems to be winning out, with ensemble clusters 1-3(~86% of members) showing fairly similar scenarios. The result of this is an impactful period of cold weather beginning Sunday night and lasting through Tuesday morning. The cold front should pass east of the area sometime Sunday evening. Guidance is pretty subdued with respect to peak wind gusts in this period, which is fairly surprising and suspicious as peak surface pressure rises on Sunday evening look to be 1-1.5 mb/hr. So expect at least an hour or so of 25-35 mph wind gusts immediately behind the front, with these relaxing shortly thereafter. The cold advection looks very robust. Temperatures are likely to fall from the 50s Sunday afternoon into the mid-upper teens by Monday morning. Winds are forecast to remain elevated Monday morning, creating a scenario where a Cold Weather Advisory is looking more and more likely for Monday morning. LREF probabilities of wind chills <15F Monday Morning are 50-75% across most of the area, which is fairly impressive at this time range. Highs are unlikely to get out of the 30s on Monday as well, extending the very cold stretch even further. The surface high is forecast to settle across the area on Monday night with dewpoints in the single digits to lower teens, clear skies, and light winds. This should result in ideal radiational cooling conditions, with another night of lows in the teens likely. As a result of all of this, the period is expected to be quite impactful despite there being no impactful precipitation. Pipes will be prone to freezing given the extended period of temps <40F across the area, so plan to drip your faucets beginning on Sunday afternoon to help prevent this. Additionally, if you have outdoor activities on Monday morning or are sending kids to the bus stop, be sure to apply additional layers to avoid any cold weather related health issues. Planning for this now will help you avoid any problems early next week! After Tuesday, the temperatures are forecast to moderate as strong upper level ridging overspreads the area from the west. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Cloud cover has moved east of the TAF sites as skies have become mostly clear. Northwesterly winds between 7-12kts have occasionally been gusting to 15-18kts, but these gusts are expected to subside as the afternoon continues. This evening and tonight, winds shift a bit more southwesterly, remaining light and little to no cloud cover is expected as the upper trough pivots out of the region. The dry air mass in place should also preclude any fog risks. 5-10 kt southwesterly winds then pick up late Friday morning with continuing mostly clear skies and VFR conditions. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air likely will prevent widespread restrictions into at least Saturday, but localized fog along river valleys will be possible toward Sunday morning. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$