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FXUS66 KLOX 071601

AFDLOX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 

801 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025



.SYNOPSIS...07/1212 AM.



Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a small 

chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast. 

A significant warming trend will begin today with temperatures 

well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday 

through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday, 

and are expected to persist through much of the week.



&&



.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...07/801 AM.



***UPDATE***



Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies

across the area this morning. Weak offshore gradients are

generating some locally gusty north to northeast winds in the

15-25 mph range.



Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no issues are

expected. Sunny skies will prevail for all areas through the day.  

Looking at morning TEMP STUDY data, boundary layer is a bit warmer

and offshore pressure gradients are a bit stronger. So today will

be about 2-5 degrees than Saturday across the area. The weak

offshore winds will remain weak throughout the day. 



Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short

term. So, no significant updates are expected.



***From Previous Discussion***



Benign weather on tap for the short term an beyond. Weak upper

level ridging will continue and hgts will rise from 582 dam today

to 586 dam on Tuesday. Offshore flow will also continue through

the period, peaking on Tuesday.



Skies should be mostly clear through the period with the 

exception of a 30 percent chc of some low clouds in the KLAX-KLGB

area this morning and a more likely chc (~70 percent) chance on 

Monday morning.



There will be local offshore winds each morning. Offshore flow

increases each day and peaks on Tuesday. There is no chc of

advisory level gust today and Monday but low end advisory level

gusts look possible Tuesday morning through and below the Santa

Lucia Range and the western LA vlys and eastern VTA vlys.



Temperatures will be the main story. Rising hgts, offshore flow

and sunny skies will all combine to bring 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees

of warming each day. Max temps across the csts/vlys will rise from

the upper 60s and 70s today to the the upper 70s to mid 80s by 

Tuesday. Most max temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal on

Tuesday.



Min temps will be warmer than normal in the windier areas, but the

dry air and clear skies will bring lower than normal temps in the

wind sheltered areas.



.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...07/300 AM.



The GFS and EC as well as their ensembles all agree that the

ridging from the west will continue through Friday. The upper high

does weaken some and hgts will slowly fall during the 3 day

period. The onshore flow which peaked on Tuesday will also slowly

relax during the period. 



While there will be some morning canyon winds they will not be of

much consequence.



Still this forecast is all about the temps. Tuesday will be the

warmest day for the csts of LA/VTA county as the relaxed offshore

flow will lead 1 or 2 degrees of cooling on Wednesday. For the 

rest of the area, however, Wednesday will be the warmest day with 

max temps rising another 2 to 3 degrees over Tuesday's already 

super warm temps. Almost all areas will cool 1 to 2 degrees on

Thursday as the high relaxes. Despite this cooling, most max temps

will still end up 10 to 15 degrees over normal (4 to 8 for the

nearshore area south of Pt Conception). Friday's temps will be

similar to Thursday's.



Not the best agreement on the pattern/fcst for next weekend, but

in general the high should continue to weaken and offshore flow

should weaken further. Some mdls show a return of the marine layer

as well. Some cooling each day is likely, but how much is still a

bit of a mystery.



&&



.AVIATION...07/1019Z.



Around 0815Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX, but there 

was a surface-based inversion up to around 2100 feet with a

temperature around 17 degrees Celsius.



High confidence in the current forecast for valley and desert

terminals. Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal

terminals. There is a moderate chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions

at Los Angeles County coastal terminals through 16Z. There is a

moderate chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions for coastal terminals

after 08Z Monday.



KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions 

through 16Z, and again after 08Z Monday. Any easterly winds will

remain less than 7 knots.



KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through theSTDAFDLOX period. No wind

impacts are expected at this time.



&&



.MARINE...07/800 AM.



For the outer waters, there is a 40-60% chance of low-end Small 

Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through the week, especially 

across the western portions of the waters north of Santa Cruz

Island during the afternoon and evening hours. 



For the inner waters including the southern California bight and 

the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 30-50% 

of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa 

Monica as well as from Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each 

night and morning through Tuesday, and a 30% chance of reoccuring 

on Wedesday. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA 

levels.



There is a moderate chance of dense fog over the coastal waters

through Monday morning. Confidence remains low on timing and 

coverage.



&&



.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for

      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Rorke/Thompson

AVIATION...Hall

MARINE...Hall/Lund

SYNOPSIS...Black/Ciliberti



weather.gov/losangeles



Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox