####018004834#### FXUS64 KLZK 220741 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 241 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 -A period of relief from the extreme heat will be present on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday resulting from a cold front that is moving through the state of Arkansas today. -Into the weekend and following workweek, the upper level ridge will build back over Arkansas leading to increased temperatures and heat index values. -Heat Products will likely be once again warranted across parts of the state beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 WEDNESDAY (TODAY) through FRIDAY: In the upper lvls, the ridge fixated from the Four Corners region of the CONUS to the Southern Plains region of the CONUS is beginning to elongate or de-amplify along the eastern flank of the ridge as a northern-stream shortwave trof digs through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley regions of the CONUS resulting in the driving of the surface cold front across Arkansas. A transition to northwesterly flow over the state of Arkansas will allow a slightly cooler, continental airmass to spill into the state in wake of the surface cold front. In response, Arkansas will experience a few days in which air temperatures will be a few degrees below normal to values which are anticipated as normal for this time of the year. At the sfc, in tandem with the cold front which is moving across the state of Arkansas, a region of high pressure will move into the Central Plains region of the CONUS and result surface winds out of the northeast to east-northeast across Arkansas. The surface winds will be critical in allowing the advection of a slightly cooler and drier airmass into the state over this period. The only appreciable day for POP chances will be on Friday as the proximity of a localized surface low pressure center and stationary boundary will provide a limited, but present chance for scattered rain and a few thunderstorms, especially across northern and eastern Arkansas. SATURDAY through TUESDAY: In the upper lvls, the region of high pressure is progged to expand back eastward over Arkansas and intensify for the remainder of the forecast period. The established upper lvl region of high pressure will lead to subsidence or sinking air over Arkansas which will promote dry conditions. At the sfc, the cold front that is currently moving southward across Arkansas is forecast to become a stationary boundary in northern Louisiana, but then progress northeastward as a warm front back across Arkansas over the weekend. In tandem with the strengthening overhead ridge, the passage of this surface warm front will allow south-southwesterly winds to become present at the surface across Arkansas advecting in a combination of warm temperatures and Gulf moisture that will once again transpire into increased air temperature values, increased dewpoint temperatures; therefore, high temperatures across the state are expected to surge again back to near and above the century mark across most of the state by the following workweek along with heat indices which will warrant heat products and likely reach well into the triple digit values between 105 to 115+ degrees across most of the state. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Expect VFR flight category during the entire duration of the forecast period from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning for all TAF sites. Surface winds will gust in excess 20+ knots beginning Wednesday late morning across the central, southwestern, and southeastern terminals through early Thursday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 69 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 96 72 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 87 67 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 94 72 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 92 72 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 93 74 91 74 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 93 71 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 86 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 88 70 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 91 72 90 72 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 93 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 90 70 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 91 72 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74 ####018002818#### FXUS65 KMSO 220742 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 142 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Monsoon moisture drives thunderstorms through Thursday, bring a localized flash flood threat. - Hot, dry, and breezy conditions this weekend will be a concern for critical fire weather conditions. - Smoke from the Pacific Northwest wildfires will continue to impact air quality, potentially worsening over the weekend. The Southwest Monsoon continues to build a ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. while drawing in abundant moisture. Today and Thursday, that moisture will work its way into southern Idaho, all of Lemhi County in Idaho, and southwest Montana. The result will be widespread showers and thunderstorms in these regions. The abundant moisture and slow-moving nature of these storms make heavy rain and localized flash flooding the primary risks. Late Thursday and into the weekend, a broad area of low pressure over the northeast Pacific Ocean pushes the high-pressure ridge further east, bringing in much drier air. This low-pressure system will also bring stronger winds aloft over the Northern Rockies, which will in turn produce gusty westerly winds over western Montana and north-central Idaho on Friday and Saturday. Currently, Saturday looks like the windier day, with widespread gusts between 15 to 30 mph. There is a 20 to 30 percent probability gusts will reach 40 mph in the terrain and valleys of western Montana Saturday afternoon and evening. These winds, along with expected relative humidity values in the upper single digits and low teens, will present a major concern for critical fire weather conditions. Another potential problem with the westerly winds will be widespread smoke from several wildfires currently burning in Washington and Oregon. && AVIATION...A southwesterly flow will continue to transport monsoon moisture over the Northern Rockies, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of southwest Montana and north-central Idaho. Currently, KBTM and KSMN have the highest potential for impacts due to thunderstorms. Timing for the thunderstorms will be between 2100Z today and 0200Z Thursday for KBTM and KSMN. With the high available moisture content and the slow movement of these storms, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be the main impacts. Current high-resolution models keep the activity south of the I-90 corridor, not directly impacting KMSO and aviation terminals further north. Any impacts to KMSO will most likely be gusty outflow winds from the south. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$ ####018006194#### FXUS65 KRIW 220744 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 144 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The monsoon peaks today with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected, with the possibility of local flooding. The best timing at this time is mainly afternoon in the west, and the afternoon and evening East of the Divide. - The chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain continues Thursday, although coverage should be less, especially in western Wyoming. - Hot temperatures return for Friday and the weekend. Friday looks mainly dry, with a better chance of showers and storms returning for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026 The monsoon is now completely over us. Not everyone saw rain today, but a lot of locations, especially West of the Divide, has some, and a good amount in some locations. See still have some showers and embedded thunder tonight but the general trend for the night is down. However, showers will continue for much of the night. The main event with the monsoon still looks to be today. The headliners in the monsoonal movie remain the same. The leading actor is obviously the monsoonal moisture. The guidance for the expected precipitable water has dropped just a bit today, but it is still very high. It now maxes out at around 1.50 inches, down from 1.61 yesterday. However, it has been running a bit hot by about 15 to 20 percent. So, in reality, the maximum, would be closer to 1.25 to 1.35. However, this is still more than 200 percent of normal. The supporting actor (or actress) is a shortwave moving in from the west that will move into Wyoming this afternoon and evening. This will help give everything a little more lift of the synoptic variety and help enhance rainfall rates even more. We continue to have most of the area under a slight risk of excessive rainfall. With this, we will continue the flood watch as is for now. As for general timing, western Wyoming would see a vast majority of the activity through sunset. East of the Divide, it would be a later show, starting in the afternoon and then continuing well into the evening before coverage lessens after midnight. Watch for flooded roads, and always remember: Turn around, don't drown! There will be one more day of concern across the area on Thursday. Precipitable waters remain rather high on this day as well. However, they do drop about 20 percent East of the Divide and around 30 percent West of the Divide. However, values are still between 150 and 200 percent of normal, so some flooding is still possible, although not as likely as today. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook has not really changed, with a vast majority of the area still in a Marginal risk. One change is that the far southwestern portion of our area is now out of it. We still expect the majority of the activity to be in areas East of the Divide. As for the flood watch, we will leave it alone for now, but it may need to be extended, especially for areas East of the Divide. Most activity should end shortly after sunset, but a few showers again may linger after midnight. The break finally comes in on Friday as some much drier air pushes across most of the area. Precipitable water values finally fall under one inch across much of the area, although still somewhat above normal. The chance of convection is not zero on this day, although less than 1 out of 4 for all areas. However, it will come with a side effect. One benefit of the deeper cloud cover is temperatures have cooled somewhat. However, we still have ridging over us and with 700 millibar temperatures climbing back toward the plus 20 celsius mark, it will get rather hot again. Most locations below 6200 feet will again see highs into the 90s an d the warmer spots in the Bighorn Basin have at least a 1 in 2 chance of highs of 100 or greater. A bit more monsoonal moisture will move over the area for the weekend, but at this point values look more like 150 percent of normal versus the 200 to 250 percent of normal we may see today. Nevertheless, it will increase the chance of diurnal convection on both days. And temperatures look to remain very warm as well, more than likely similar to Friday, with widespread 90s in the lower elevations with triple digit highs in the warmer spots. Models are split for early next week though, with some showing drier conditions and others keeping the diurnal convection trend continuing. However, above normal temperatures are likely to continue. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 There is lower than usual confidence in the 22/0600Z TAFs tonight into Wednesday, as abundant atmospheric moisture combined with a passing weather system will make showers and thunderstorms numerous. Overall, the next 24 hours will be a period where pilots should expect quickly changing conditions, a lot of mid-level cloud cover, and occasional very heavy rain and visibility reduction. Lightning looks most likely in the typical noon to sunset timeframe, but this will be a 24 hour period where isolated lightning is possible overnight and in the post-sunrise morning hours. Small hail will be possible in the strongest cells, but occasional strong downdrafts, lightning, and localized flooding are the bigger threats with storms through early Thursday morning. Weather models show various timings for when storms are most likely at TAF sites, so an attempt was made at finding a rough consensus. However, wind direction will be fickle, and largely determined by where individual showers and clusters of storms sit relative to terminals (with storm outflow blowing winds away from nearby rain shafts). && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for WYZ001>020-022>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...VandenBoogart