####018004625#### FXUS63 KDVN 090549 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1249 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal or level 1 out of 5 Risk for severe storms over the entire area Tonight. - Active weather continues through the period. - Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday with a warming trend starting early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Surface analysis shows a warm front has lifted to along a line from KALO to KSFY to near KSQI at 18 UTC. There are southeasterly winds across the area of 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. Temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints varying from 43 at Washington to 55 degrees at Keokuk. Dewpoints have slowly been increasing this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows some cumulus development near the Interstate 80 corridor. A 500 MB trough that stretches from Quebec westward into the South Dakota is forecast to sink southward through 00 UTC Friday. The trough axis will remain to our west through the period. A piece of a closed 500 mb low will break off and move into northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin through the period. At the surface, a surface low and occluded front or inverted surface trough will move eastward across the area tonight. Scattered showers and storms will initially develop late this afternoon into the early evening. the key question is how much instability will be in place across the area. Models initially suggest 500 to 1000 J/KG of CAPE but 0 to 6 km shear is very strong at 50 to 60 knots. 0 to 3 km shear is 30 to 40 knots. The instability may only support lower top storms late this afternoon into this evening as higher storms may be quickly sheared apart. Isolated severe storms are the main concern across the entire area with hail, damaging winds and maybe a tornado being possible. As we move later into the evening and larger scale lift moves into the area, expect showers and isolated thunderstorms activity to become more widespread across the area. Sounding profiles at this stage support more of a steady rain showers through tonight into Thursday. Scattered showers will linger through much of the day on Thursday. High temperatures on THursday will be cool and range from the upper 50s in northwest Illinois to the mid 60s in far southeast Iowa, west central Illinois and far northeast Missouri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Friday through the weekend: Pattern change to a northwest flow as a deep trough sets up shop across the Great Lakes. Periodic disturbances in the flow will bring off and on showers and a few thunderstorms with chance pops every 24 to 36 hours. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50. Early to mid next week: Another pattern flip to a deep trough diving into the Northern Rockies and then into the Plains. This will warm our temperatures well into the 70s to lower 80s. Also, chances for thunderstorms will also be on the increase. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Complex of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday morning, mainly along and north of I-80, but eventually will develop farther to the south. There may be a brief break in the rain later in the morning, followed by more showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Cold air aloft is expected to produce widespread IFR/MVFR in low stratus and showers. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 River flood watches have been issued for small parts of the Cedar, Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers. Rainfall expected tonight into Thursday will cause the Cedar, Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers to rise over the next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding the amount of forecasted rainfall. If the rainfall is less than expected, rises will still occur on these rivers but they could remain below flood stage. If, on the other hand, rainfall is heavier than forecast, more locations along Cedar, Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers could go into flood. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Haase HYDROLOGY...08 ####018004399#### FXUS63 KGID 090551 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1251 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (up to a 25% chance) this afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the area. No severe weather is expected. - Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible (up to a 60% chance Sunday afternoon) Saturday night through Tuesday night. Severe weather is not expected at this time. - High temperatures will range from the mid 60s to low 80s and low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to mid 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Today and tonight... A big upper trough extends from the West Coast to the Upper Midwest. An upper low is centered over South Dakota with mostly northwest winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures across the area are in the 60s and 70s. Showers with maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible (up to a 20% chance) this afternoon and evening across mainly areas north of the Nebraska Tri-Cities area. No severe weather is expected. Low temperatures tonight will be mostly in the 40s with northerly winds. Thursday through Saturday... Northerly winds will continue across the area on Thursday with highs similar or slightly cooler than today. Rain and storms will be possible (up to a 25% chance) Thursday afternoon and evening. Low temperatures in the 40s are again expected Thursday night with light northwest winds and mostly clear skies. The portion of the upper trough over the western part of the country will get cut off from the trough over the Upper Midwest. Nebraska and Kansas will be in between these two features on Friday. Northwest winds are expected to continue across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Friday with high temperatures mostly in the 70s. Low temperatures will continue to be in the 40s Friday night. A slight warm up is expected for Saturday with high temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will generally be out of the northwest to southwest with mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Saturday night through Tuesday night... Low temperatures Saturday night will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s with south to southwest winds. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase (up to near 50%) across the area beginning Saturday night. Rain and storm chances (up to around 60%) continue during the day on Sunday as an upper trough moves over the southern and central Plains. High temperatures will be similar or slightly cooler on Sunday than the previous day. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 40s and 50s. Rain and storm chances (up to around 55%) will continue through Sunday night as the upper trough remains over the southern and central Plains. Rain and storm chances remain (up to around 50%) on Monday with highs similar or slightly higher than the previous day. Temperatures are expected to increase slightly next Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain and storm chances will continue (up to around 40%) into Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Skies will remain clear through around sunrise when few-sct MVFR criteria clouds will move into the area. NBM probabilities keep the chances for MVFR ceiling below 30%, however if confidence increases in more widespread cloud coverage, MVFR ceilings could be introduced. Cloud heights will rise throughout the morning hours, to around 050 by the afternoon. Scattered showers are possible Thursday afternoon, but showers at the terminals or in their vicinity are too uncertain to include in the TAF at this time. Skies will clear during the evening hours, with few to sct clouds expected overnight. Winds will be NW-N throughout the taf period. Winds will increase after sunrise on Thursday, with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts to around 20kts. Winds will decrease around sunrise and become light overnight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Davis ####018007509#### FXUS61 KBOX 090551 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region this afternoon and this evening. Periods of unsettled weather continue late this week into this weekend with showers at times. Temperatures will average below normal late this week into the weekend. Milder/Seasonable temperatures should return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM update... Showers and sct t-storms will be exiting the Cape/Islands during the next hour or so as the mid level shortwave moves to the east. Subsidence and drying behind the shortwave will result in dry conditions overnight. However, stratus and fog will linger into the overnight across eastern MA and Cape/Islands before clearing toward daybreak. Lows will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... Thursday starts out dry as a wedge of dry air remains in place over SNE. Moisture increases from the SW during the afternoon ahead of next shortwave dropping through the Great Lakes and OH valley, with low pressure moving to mid Atlantic region. Risk of showers will increase during the afternoon. Highs should be mostly in the 60s, mildest CT valley and coolest along the coast in eastern MA where developing NE flow will likely hold temps in the upper 50s here. These showers will continue into Thursday night. With cloud cover and rain, temperatures across much of the area will remain in the middle and upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Points... * More widespread rain possible Friday into Saturday night * Below average temperatures continue through the weekend * More seasonable temps return next week Friday A shortwave trough exits out of the Ohio River Valley becoming negatively tilted as it moves over SNE. The surface low is initially vertically stacked with the shortwave aloft and begins to occlude as new low forms and intensifies offshore to the east. Although the best forcing will be to the south of SNE, the chances for a widespread rain are increasing. As a mid level low passes over and intensifies to the south of the region, this will drag down rather cold 850mb air around 0C to -2C. With ENE winds at the surface, along with cold 850mb temps, low clouds, and rain, high temps may struggle to even reach 50F across the region. Rain looks to continue into Friday night before tapering off Saturday morning. Overnight lows look to drop into the low 40s, with upper 30s possible in the high terrain. Not out of the question that snow mixes in with rain across the high terrain in the Berkshires. Saturday Surface and midlevel low move well out to sea bringing widespread rain to end in the morning. However, an upper level closed low drops south over the region leaving SNE under cyclonic flow aloft. With weak forcing aloft and the mid level cold pool still in place, this will likely lead to a hit or miss light showers/drizzle. High temps on Saturday don't look to recover much with thick low level cloud layer still around. High temps should only reach the low to mid 50s with continued onshore flow. Sunday Another weak surface low exits the Ohio River Valley and passes just south of SNE. This could bring another round of widespread light rain to the region. Uncertainty with this system remains high given the weak upper level forcing and not much run to run consistency on the track of the low. Highs remain below normal Sunday and could once again struggle to reach 50F. Next week The pesky upper level low and mid level cold pool finally move east as a midlevel shortwave brings WAA and 850mb temps above 0C to even +10C by mid week. This will allow high temps to moderate back into the low to mid 70s. As for rain chances, high pressure to the south should keep things dry early in the week. Rain chances look to increase again mid to late week, but uncertainty is high at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z... IFR-LIFR stratus and fog across eastern MA will gradually erode and improve to MVFR-VFR by 12z, but IFR may persist across Cape/Islands. Today...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR cigs, but areas of MVFR cigs across east coastal MA. N wind around 10 kt turning NE during the afternoon. Tonight...Moderate confidence. MVFR cigs expanding westward across SNE. Low prob for IFR. Scattered showers developing, especially across western half New Eng. NE wind 5-15 kt. Friday...Moderate confidence. Cigs improving to VFR from NE to SW as drier air works in from the N. A few showers possible, mainly from SW MA and CT to the south coast. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR-LIFR stratus and fog should improve to MVFR or even VFR by 12z. Some uncertainty with cigs today which may vary between VFR and MVFR but no vsby restrictions. NW winds will become NE this afternoon. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF today. VFR through today, then cigs may lower to MVFR tonight. Scattered showers possible tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday...High confidence. Low level jet will bring a period of SW gusts to 20+ kt to south coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Winds diminish tonight, becoming north by Thu morning then NE 10-20 kt during Thu afternoon. Seas remain below SCA thresholds. Areas of fog will reduce vsbys at times over south coastal waters through tonight. Scattered showers and embedded t-storms move through this morning into early afternoon. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides coupled with onshore flow may result in some splashover/very minor coastal flooding during the overnight high tide cycles tonight and Fri night. However, wind/waves do not appear high enough to result in a significant issue. The daytime high tides are lower and do not pose a threat for coastal flooding. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC ####018005211#### FXUS61 KCAR 090552 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 152 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday. Low pressure will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to our north. Low pressure will track south of the region Saturday. An upper level trough will remain over the area Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 152 AM Update: Mid level clouds continue across the north with scattered rain showers, while low level clouds have socked in Downeast with patches of fog. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to winds made at this time. Previous discussion... Surface low pressure crosses the region tonight, exiting across the Maritimes late, with a trof extending back across the forecast area. Aloft, an upper level disturbance also crosses the region. Expect rain tonight, tapering to showers late. The greater rain totals through tonight will occur across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area, with the lowest totals across northern Aroostook county. Upper level troffing persists north of the region Thursday, while another disturbance moving around the trof crosses the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies with isolated/scattered showers Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40 north, to the lower 40s Downeast. High temperatures Thursday will range through the 50s north, with lower to mid 50s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Latest guidance continues to trend drier Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds out of Canada into the CWA. Sfc low pressure slides off of the mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday evening and with northeast flow over the area it looks to remain far enuf to the south to keep the area dry overnight. Clouds will be present acrs the region in the evening before becoming partly cloudy after about 08z with clearing acrs the northwest by daybreak. Min temps look to drop into the lwr 30s over the North Woods with m/u 30s elsewhere. Elongated upper level trough will continue to plague the region on Friday with upr lvl cold pool possibly resulting in diurnal showers over the area in the afternoon. Some differences in guidance with movement of cold pool with GFS moving it out quicker and NAM lingering it over the area into Friday night. Either way have kept just a slight chance of showers over Downeast until 06z before showers try to back in from NB on easterly flow Saturday morning into the afternoon. With cool easterly flow temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than Friday which is already below normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upr low will slowly close off near New England Saturday night and become negatively tilted. How fast this happens and spreads rain to the CWA still remains up in the air. Will continue with chc pops late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. GFS brings upper low over the waters and into NB before moving it into the Maritimes Monday night. CMC and EC are much quicker with the movement and subsequent building of upr lvl ridge. Given such uncertainty in any one solution will keep slgt chc-chc pops from Monday morning into Tuesday. With subsequent runs may be able to keep Monday and Monday night fairly dry but too much variability in model solutions to go with this at this point. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue north of KHUL through this evening as rain showers continue across the north. IFR to LIFR from KHUL due to low cigs, and BR to BCFG closer to the coast limiting vis. Showers will taper off through the day on Thursday, with improving conditions towards VFR at all terminals by Thursday night. NW winds around 10 kts Thursday, gusting to 20 kts at Downeast terminals. Winds will become light and variable Thursday night. SHORT TERM: Thursday night-Friday...VFR. ENE 5-10kts. Friday night-Saturday...VFR, with ocnl MVFR in cigs and possible showers. ENE 5-10kts. Saturday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR though may see MVFR in light showers. NNE 5-10kts. Sunday night-Monday...Mainly VFR. SW 5-15kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory levels tonight through Thursday. However, a few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels Thursday. Rain early tonight, tapering to showers late. Isolated showers Thursday. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts will be marginal over the outer waters Thursday into Friday evening and again on Saturday morning. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet and may approach 5ft on Sunday and Sunday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross Short Term...Buster Long Term...Buster Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Buster Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Buster