####018005973#### FXUS61 KRLX 112317 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 717 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Episodic rounds of showers and storms so far today sets the stage for additional activity moving in late this afternoon and evening, leading to little to no reprieve. 2.) Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain prevails through the end of the week. A small window of reprieve arrives on Saturday before filling back in quickly with active weather for the second half of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Radar trends at the time of writing depicts several clusters of thunderstorm activity from the Midwest into the Appalachians. Several rounds of severe and flooding have already pressed through the forecast area today, contributing to widespread tree and power line damage, as well as life-threatening flash flooding. Atmospheric recovery efforts already appears underway, with the western flank of the forecast area branching back out into sunshine and temperatures quickly rising back into the 70s to almost low 80s. Focusing on convection upstream, a corridor of severe strength storms stretches from central Indiana into the Columbus area of Ohio and tracking south-southeastward. Storms will likely follow the path of least resistance when it comes to their propagation through the Ohio Valley, and that will be strongly based on areas of best destabilization. With that in mind, opted to hoist a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of Kentucky and Ohio through the afternoon as we closely track this line. As has been the case with the history of storms today, convective activity will be capable of producing damaging to destructive wind gusts, quarter size hail, embedded rotation that could touch down into a tornado, and heavy downpours. Confidence in the forecast for the overnight period remains low, with each cycle run of our readily Convective Available Models suggesting additional development of storms along a pseudo-warm front parked overhead. Repetition of these overnight storms will contribute to ongoing flash flooding concerns across the forecast area. The Flood Watch remains in effect tonight into most of the work week. KEY MESSAGE 2... Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms triumphs through at least Thursday while a frontal boundary remains draped through the heart of the Ohio Valley. Propagation of these storms will remain closely tied to the low to mid level wind field each day, which will sometimes cause a southeastward approach of convection and at other times bypass our forecast area altogether. Complexes that are able to hold their composure and venture into the area will bring damaging wind gusts and torrential heavy rain. Sufficient rainfall producers will only exacerbate already inundated soils more and could lead to easily achievable flash flooding. Thus, the Flood Watch remains in place through Friday morning. The start of the weekend trends slightly drier with the mass exodus of the stalled front, but may quickly fill back in with additional convection aiming for the Central Appalachians for Sunday and onward. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This evening, expect occasional visibility drops to MVFR and IFR during bursts of heavier downpours. During the overnight period, expect IFR dense fog and ceilings to develop. Restrictions may reach LIFR or VLIFR during the overnight hours at a few terminals. IFR Conditions will slowly improve after 12Z Wednesday, but MVFR ceilings will likely continue for most of the day across many sites. Additional thunderstorms may develop and impact the southern and western TAF sites early Wednesday morning after 06Z. Confidence in this is low. Additional thunderstorms may also develop sometime Wednesday afternoon, but confidence in timing and location of any storms remains low. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm timing and associated restrictions may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Wednesday through Friday, additional convective complexes favor daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or IFR in heavy rain. Morning valley fog or low stratus may return after wetting rains, especially at EKN and other sheltered sites. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...26 ####018005433#### FXUS62 KTAE 112318 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 718 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Hazardous heat is expected through much of the week into the upcoming weekend with heat index values of 105-112 likely. Heat Advisories are in effect for the eastern FL Panhandle & Big Bend and far southwest GA this afternoon and once again Wednesday. - Isolated showers and storms will be possible each day. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 The main theme will be the building heat over the next week. Heat advisories are likely into late week. Mid level high pressure will start this period over the north central Gulf while a few minor shortwaves moving through the Appalachians carve out mid level troughing along and offshore the East Coast. The surface reflects about the same; high pressure starts in the northeast Gulf while surface troughing aligns along the east and southeast US coast. With time through the end of the work week, the surface and mid level high gradually move westward towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley by the end of the day Friday. Better column moisture and PWATs will be shunted east of the high but will gradually move from east to west as the high moves westward. PWATs 1.8-2 inches to start Wednesday but higher PWATs will start to creep in Thursday and Friday. However, area cross sections show a good amount of dry air and subsidence from 700mb and above which will help to suppress more widespread diurnal convective activity. In fact, rain chances remain below normal for this time of year. Highs Wednesday through Friday will reach the mid to upper 90s and heat indices 105-112F. Into the weekend, the mid level high will continue moving west into the southern Plains. At the same time, a backdoor cold front sliding south through the coastal Plain would add additional moisture and instability/focus to initiate a better coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The heat continues but may be 1-2 degrees 'cooler' and favor the middle 90s but heat indices remain in the 107- 112F range. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms around area terminals this evening. Most activity is expected to diminish following sunset with a few storms lingering into the night for the ABY terminal. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon tomorrow, which could bring in brief MVFR/IFR cigs if a heavy thunderstorm were to move over the terminal. Light westerly/southwesterly winds will prevail. Expect an increase in wind speed over ECP during in the afternoon as the sea breeze moves through. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Gentle to moderate west to southwest breezes into the weekend. A slight uptick in winds in the nearshore waters and bays is possible as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will mostly be confined to land areas, but nearshore morning showers or storms could pose a waterspout risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Light southwest to west transport winds will continue over the next few days. Dispersions will be good each afternoon, but could be locally high close to the I-75 corridor in GA. Isolated showers and storms are possible each afternoon, generally starting near the coast in the late morning or early afternoon, then moving inland through the afternoon hours. Gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning are possible in and near storms. Otherwise, hazardous heat will be expected each day with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values of 103-112. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Localized heavy downpours are possible in afternoon thunderstorms. However, widespread flood concerns are not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 96 77 96 / 0 30 20 30 Panama City 80 93 80 93 / 0 10 10 10 Dothan 76 95 76 96 / 0 20 20 10 Albany 77 95 76 96 / 20 40 10 10 Valdosta 76 97 76 97 / 10 50 10 30 Cross City 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 20 20 Apalachicola 79 92 79 92 / 0 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118- 127-326-426. GA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ155>160. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl ####018005695#### FXUS64 KBMX 112319 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 619 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026 - Major Heat Risk: A Heat Advisory is in effect Wednesday from 1 pm to 9 pm, with additional advisories likely to be issued for later this week. There is high confidence in dangerous heat with heat indices reaching 105-110°F daily from Wednesday through the weekend. - Severe Storms: A few storms may become severe, producing damaging winds across portions of our eastern and northeastern counties Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 123 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026 This afternoon: Elongated ridging extends from over the Southern Plains southeast to across much of the Florida Peninsula while two shortwaves are moving southeast over the Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachian regions. Surface high pressure is centered across the far southeast portion of the state with some weakness in the ridging across the northern and eastern counties, where shower and thunderstorm activity has already developed and is currently increasing as of early afternoon. Expect chances for showers and storms to be best across the northeast and eastern- central counties with lowest chances southwest. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s far east to the mid 90s far southwest. Winds will be from the west to southwest from 4-8 mph. Tonight: The mid-level ridging will consolidate more over the Northern Gulf Coast region tonight while surface high pressure remains centered just to our southeast. Expect lingering shower and storm activity to decrease through the evening with fair skies overnight with light southwest winds 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower 70s far east and northeast to the mid 70s west and southwest. Thursday: Mid-level ridging will remain centered over the Northern Gulf Coast on Thursday while surface high pressure builds more over the southern and western portions of the area, resulting in isolated shower and storm activity expected across the eastern third of the area with lowest chances west. High humidity will persist and with higher temperatures, will result in heat index values reaching 105 degrees in portions of our western and central counties. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 1 pm through 9 pm. Long Term: The long-term portion of the forecast will feature strengthening mid-level ridging as it becomes centered over Central Mississippi by this weekend. Surface high pressure will migrate further northwest, becoming centered across the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region by early in the weekend. This pattern will result in minimal chances for widely isolated shower and storm activity primarily confined to the far east and southeast portions of the forecast area. Concerns for persistent heat stress will increase with a multi-day episode of heat indices exceeding 105 degrees and potentially approaching 110 degrees in some spots though the weekend and into early next week. Some spots may fall back into D0 drought category if these conditions do persist into middle next week. 05 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026 Showers and storms continue across eastern portions of Central Alabama this evening. Short-term model guidance suggests that additional showers and storms may fire over the next couple hours farther to the west, so have extended the PROB30 groups for BHM, EET and AUO through 04z, along with MGM. Storm activity is currently ongoing near AUO. Lowered vis may develop in the morning where it does rain. Mentioned this in AUO TAF but left out of others due to low confidence. Storm chances are lower tomorrow afternoon and confined toward the Georgia state line. Included a PROB30 again for AUO. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Humid conditions will keep minimum relative humidity values near or above 50% through Thursday. As ridging builds Friday, conditions will turn slightly drier, with MinRH values dropping into the mid 40 percent range in the southwest. By the weekend, MinRH values will further decrease to near 40% across western and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the period. While isolated to scattered showers and storms will persist through late week, the activity will become very isolated and more confined to eastern areas over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over the next seven days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 74 93 74 95 / 10 20 10 10 Anniston 73 91 73 92 / 10 20 10 10 Birmingham 75 93 76 94 / 10 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 75 95 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 Calera 74 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 Auburn 74 90 75 92 / 20 20 10 10 Montgomery 76 95 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 Troy 74 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...12