####018009294#### FXUS63 KBIS 090035 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 635 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing rain will impact North Dakota beginning after midnight tonight, and continuing until around noon CST Tuesday, with ice accumulations as high as one tenth of an inch. - Very strong winds expected late Tuesday morning through Tuesday night, with gusts as high as 65 mph. - 1 to 4 inches of snow are expected in the Turtle Mountains area Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. - Another round of snow will impact all of western and central North Dakota Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. - Below average temperatures are expected Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, with dangerous wind chills possible Thursday evening through Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Little change is needed to the forecast, and there were no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory and High Wind Warning with this update. As of early evening, a weak surface low is near Devils Lake and moving southeast out of the area. The midlevel air mass west and southwest of that system is very warm, with the 18z KBIS RAOB having already sampled a warm nose aloft that was around +3 C in the 900 to 850 mb layer. That will set the stage for freezing rain late tonight and Tuesday morning as forcing for ascent increases as a low- and midlevel warm front tied to a rapidly-deepening surface low in southern Canada and an associated intense jet streak aloft move across western and central ND. The 18 UTC global model guidance and recent rapid- refresh guidance remains in agreement on this scenario, so no changes were needed to our messaging at this time. We will need to carefully consider whether the rest of southwestern ND not already in a Winter Weather Advisory will need one for freezing rain for a few hours late tonight and Tuesday morning, but that area will be closest to the surface freezing line when precipitation develops. Otherwise, the incipient surface low with the upcoming system is in west central Alberta as of this writing, with water vapor imagery suggesting the intensifying upper-level jet streak that will foster its rapid strengthening the next 12 hours beginning to spread east across the Rockies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Currently northwest flow is over the Northern Plains. At the surface a warm front has moved east through North Dakota. Colder air sits in southern Canada awaiting to be pulled into the state by the backside of the low pressure system moving in tonight. Across western ND temperatures are above freezing post warm front, with breezy west winds. An Atmospheric River from the Pacific Ocean is flowing over the Northern Rockies creating a large high cloud shield over Montana and North Dakota. The Storm: Tonight an Alberta Clipper will start to move into the Northern Plains, tapping into that Pacific Ocean moisture. With the current northwest flow, there is warm air aloft ahead of the low across eastern Montana and North Dakota. This will create a swath of freezing rain as surface temperatures will be below freezing, moving west to east early Tuesday morning through about noon CST. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this threat across most of western and central ND. We left the far southwest out because most of the precip will be farther north and east. If you are traveling to work in the morning be sure to check the road conditions. As the low moves through ND, and surface temperatures warm above freezing, it will switch to rain and the Winter Weather Advisory will expire at noon CST. The Turtle Mountains will be cooler and remain in the cold sector of the low, so mainly snow is expected. Current forecast totals are 1-4 inches with locally heavier amounts as you get closer to Canada and farther east into Towner County. The Winter Weather Advisory will remain there all day. QPF amounts are anywhere from 0.10 to 0.20 for the west and central. Closer to the northeast and east (the bullseye of the system) the amounts increase to 0.30 inches. A lot more snow will fall in the eastern part of the state where the cold sector and very strong frontogenesis with high lapse rates are located. Northeast ND will also be the left exit region of the jet stream, enhancing the lift and strength of the system. All that to say, snow amounts will be limited in our CWA by the length of time in the warm sector and lack of forcing. There will be a lull in precip in the afternoon before the wrap around moisture moves in from the north in the evening. This wrap around will mainly be snow, especially after sunset and through the overnight. Snow accumulations from Tuesday night will likely be below 1 inch and be limited to the Highway 52 corridor. For the winds, the pressure gradient will tighten in the late morning and combine forces with cold air advection (CAA) on the backside of the low. A strong pressure bubble will also be with the CAA, creating winds up to 65mph, possibly 70mph at times. We have a High Wind Warning out that will replace the Winter Weather Advisory at noon CST. The far southwest's Warning will start a tad earlier at 8am MST. The strong winds will reside Tuesday night, but breezy winds will continue through Wednesday morning. Blowing snow is also a concern but may be limited if the freezing rain puts a crust on the snow or if the rain soaks the snow enough to be too wet to be lofted. Likely either way there will be plenty of drifting snow across the roads Tuesday afternoon through the overnight. Rest of the week: Wednesday a Northern Rockies low will form and move through the state, bringing the next round of snow. Models continue showing strong frontogenesis setting up in a northwest to southeast diagonal across ND with jet stream support. Calibrated NBM probabilities for 1 inch of snow range from 20 to 50 percent. The higher chances are in the southwest where the frontogenesis may linger longer. Winds will not be as strong as Tuesday, only around 20mph. High temperatures will also be much cooler in the single digits in the northeast to the low 30s in the southwest (no snow pack). This snow system will linger into Friday. Northwest flow will then continue through the weekend, with very cold Arctic air dropping into the state. Lows starting Friday morning will be in the negatives statewide. Expect lows around 15 below in the north and 5 below in the south. This will make wind chill values of -25 to -40 across the state. This will need a Cold Weather product later this week. Saturday morning will be similar and Sunday morning will be slightly warmer but will still have wind chills around -20. In the northwest flow through the weekend, small waves will form off the Rocky Mountains, bringing low to medium (20-40%) chances of snow to North Dakota. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High-impact weather for aviation interests is expected across western and central ND during the 00 UTC TAF cycle and beyond. Initially, an area of MVFR ceilings in north central and east central ND may impact the KJMS terminal this evening, but the main impacts from the upcoming Alberta Clipper passage will begin in western ND in the 07-10 UTC time frame when rain and freezing rain is expected to develop. Freezing rain is forecast to move into central ND in the 10 to 13 UTC time frame. Expect a few hours of freezing rain at most if not all terminals in western and central ND late tonight and Tuesday morning, before temperatures rise above freezing, turning precipitation to rain. MVFR to IFR ceilings will also occur late tonight and Tuesday. Precipitation will generally diminish from west to east during the day Tuesday. Low-level wind shear will develop late tonight and Tuesday as well, with westerly winds of 45 to 55 kt as low as 1500 AGL. Strong westerly surface winds will also develop from Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, before increasing further and turning more northwest, with peak gusts to around 50 kt Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001>003-009>012-017>023- 025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051. High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001>003-009>012-017>021. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for NDZ004-005-013. High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday to 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ022-023-025-033>037-041-042- 044>048-050-051. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NDZ031-032- 040-043. && $$ UPDATE...CJS DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...CJS ####018005875#### FXUS61 KRLX 090037 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 737 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The snowstorm exits this evening. Cold tonight, but a bit milder and dry Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday. A clipper crosses toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 735 PM Monday... Allowed the Advisories expiring at 7 PM in central WV to expire. The snowfall in WV was winding down ever so slowly, and the remainder of the headlines remain in effect until 9 PM. As of 505 PM Monday... Allowed western portions of the Advisories expire but extended a northern portion of it in central WV, that was also expiring at 5 PM, until 7 PM. Also updated PoPs to account for a slower exodus of the snowstorm this evening. Will also issue a Special Weather Statement along the northwest fringes of the remaining Advisories for refreeze upon nightfall this cold evening. As of 1225 PM Monday... Winter weather headlines remain in effect this afternoon and evening for southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. models show the snow tapering off from west to east this afternoon and evening. After the snow tapers off, a high pressure system will provide dry weather for the remainder of tonight and Tuesday. NOTE: Temperatures this evening will become cold enough that any water on roads will freeze. This could cause hazardous road conditions on untreated roads even after the snow has ended. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1255 PM Monday... A system will move through the Great Lakes area on Wednesday, with a trailing cold front pushing through the region. This will generally create a rain scenario in general, although higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains may remain snow. Colder air will move in behind the front Wednesday night with gusty winds, providing an upslope snow situation for Wednesday night into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 PM Monday... A series of clippers will then effect the area for Thursday night into the weekend. Models struggle on the timing and placement of these systems, leading to a low confidence in the forecast. It should also be noted that there are significant differences in the models regarding the intensity of the colder air moving into the region as well. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 735 PM Monday... Ceilings and visibility at CRW, EKN and BKW were improving this evening, as the snowfall was winding down. CRW should be VFR overnight but MVFR stratocumulus will reform during the daylight morning hours on Tuesday, before breaking up for a VFR afternoon. EKN visibility will improve to VFR in the next hour or so, but MVFR ceilings will persist through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, before breaking up and allowing for a VFR balance of the day. BKW visibility will improve to VFR in the next hour or two but IFR ceilings there will persist through the night, before improving to MVFR during the daylight morning hours on Tuesday, and then breaking up and allowing for VFR conditions from late morning on. In addition, VLIFR dense fog is forecast to form there overnight, and dissipate around daybreak Tuesday. Elsewhere, HTS had already improved to VFR and should remain so overnight, but low MVFR stratocumulus to IFR stratus will reform during the daylight morning hours on Tuesday, before breaking up for a VFR afternoon. CKB and PKB were VFR, but MVFR stratocumulus will reform during the daylight morning hours on Tuesday, before breaking up for a VFR balance of the forecast. PKB remains VFR this period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility improvement as snow ends tonight could vary. Fog may not be as dense as forecast at BKW overnight. Extent of morning MVFR/IFR ceilings Tuesday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M L M M M M L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions are possible area-wide Wednesday night through Thursday in a rain to rain/snow mix, and then in mainly snow by Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for WVZ024- 025-028-033-034-518-520>524-526. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for WVZ015- 026-027-515>517-519. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...TRM