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FXUS65 KBOI 171530

AFDBOI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

930 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024



.DISCUSSION...Morning satellite imagery showing mid-level

shortwave energy along the ID/MT border. The dynamics and cold

air aloft accompanying this feature will fuel shower 

development across the e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho

mountains through this evening. As outlined by SPC, the chance

for thunderstorm development will remain to the north and east

of the area today. Winds will remain gusty behind last night's 

cold frontal passage, especially across the Snake Plain, which 

will add a chill to today's cooler temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION...VFR in the valleys today. Isolated mountain snow

showers across e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho will 

produce brief MVFR and mountain obscuration through this 

evening. Surface winds: N-W 5-15kt with gusts to 25 kt, except

in the Snake Plain KMUO-KTWF/KJER with sustained 20 kt and gusts

to 35 kt through 02Z this evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:

NW 10-25 kt.



KBOI...No significant weather. Uniform NW winds surface to 10kft

MSL with no wind shift expected through this evening.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...At 3 AM MDT a surface 

cold front and mid-level cloud shield were moving southeastward

through southern Idaho, with radar showing isolated snow showers

in the Boise Mountains. West-central Idaho and most of eastern 

Oregon have already cleared but southern Malheur County was 

still cloudy. The front will move to the Nevada border later 

today and stall there. Behind (i.e., north of) the front west/

northwest winds will increase in open areas throughout our CWA,

strongest in the Upper Treasure and western Magic where  

afternoon gusts to 35 mph are expected. Clearing, drying, 

calming, and colder tonight with sub-freezing low temps in all 

areas Thursday morning. Mostly sunny and 5 degrees warmer later

Thursday with less wind than today. Mostly clear and cold again 

Thursday night, but the stalled cold front near the Nevada border

will begin to shift northward again as a warm front, with clouds

increasing along the southern CWA border Friday. Friday should 

also be 5 degrees warmer than Thursday. Mostly clear north and 

mostly cloudy and warmer south Friday night.



LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Warmer, dry conditions

are anticipated Saturday as a weak ridge builds over the area. 

Models have become more aligned in bringing a quick-moving, 

shortwave trough through the Pacific Northwest late Saturday 

and Sunday. While this trough will increase cloud cover across 

southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho, only a 15-25% chance of 

precipitation is expected for w-central Idaho while the rest of 

the area remains dry. Snow levels will stay fairly high at 

6500-8000 ft MSL. Temperatures are forecast to be around 10 

degrees above normal Saturday, but should lower several degrees 

Sunday as cooler and breezy northwest flow establishes behind 

the trough. Mostly dry, weak ridging will return Monday and 

Tuesday and allow temperatures to rebound to 10-15 degrees above

normal. Late Tuesday and Wednesday ensemble members begin to 

diverge significantly, but hint at the return of unsettled 

conditions.



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...None.

OR...None.



&&



$$



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DISCUSSION...DG

AVIATION.....DG

SHORT TERM...LC

LONG TERM....SH