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FXUS63 KILX 171544

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1044 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...

 

- Westerly winds gusting to 35-45 mph will continue through mid afternoon

  today. Areas of blowing dust could lower visibilities in 

  localized spots. Drivers should exercise caution and avoid 

  driving in areas of significantly diminished visibilities.



- The next severe threat arrives Thursday. SPC has a slight risk (level

  2/5) for counties along and south of the I-72 corridor. This 

  could be an all hazards event.



- Weekend still looks chilly but dry. Overnight lows Friday night

  to Sunday night drop into the 30s, with Saturday night being the

  coldest night. This temperature drop could harm any sensitive

  crops and vegetation.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1044 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024



15z/10am surface analysis shows a cold front pushing eastward

across the I-57 corridor. Any convection that forms along the

front today will occur further east across Indiana/Ohio. Meanwhile

behind the boundary, am expecting windy and dry conditions across

the entire KILX CWA. W/SW winds have routinely gusted 30-40mph and

these gusts will persist through the afternoon before gradually

decreasing prior to sunset. Current satellite imagery shows a

large area of low clouds pivoting eastward out of Iowa, so cloudy

skies will be the rule everywhere north of the I-70 corridor. As

the parent low lifts further northeastward away from the region,

skies will clear from southwest to northeast late this afternoon

into early this evening. High temperatures will range from the

middle 60s along/north of a Macomb to Bloomington line where

clouds will be most prevalent...to around 80 degrees south of

I-70.



Barnes



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024



This lovely Wednesday morning will be off to a windy start. The wind 

will continue to veer to the west behind the departing cold front.

Westerly winds will continue to gust to 35-45 mph. For the most 

part, they will stay just below or borderline advisory criteria. 

However, yesterday's winds overachieved at times out of the south 

and westerly winds are know to over-perform, so they could easily

occasionally gust above 50 mph today. Forecast soundings from the

NAM and HRRR show 35-40 knots could be mixed down in the boundary

layer. The strong winds could stir up dust from the fields, 

reducing visibility at times. Drivers should exercise caution and 

avoid driving through areas of significantly reduced visibilities.



Today will be dry and warm. The next chance for showers and 

thunderstorms arrives on Thursday as a second cold front is progged 

to move across the state. This cold front will also bring cooler 

temperatures behind it. The PWAT for tomorrow show values of 1.0-1.3 

inches. There is a small possibility that the round of showers 

and thunderstorms could pose a localized flash flooding risk in 

urban areas and areas with already saturated soils. 



The risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon/evening is 

primarily focused for counties along and south of the I-72 

corridor. The biggest threat appears to be the hail risk. 

Soundings show steep lapse rates and decent (50-60 knot) 0-6km 

wind shear, supporting hail. The threat for an isolated tornado or

damaging winds are not ruled out. SPC has a slight risk (level 

2/5) for the counties along and south of I-72. The marginal risk 

(level 1/5) is spread southeast of a Schuyler to McLean county 

line. 



Temperatures this weekend will drop to below normal but will warm 

back up with the new work week. The overnight lows Friday night to 

Sunday night drop into the 30s, with Saturday night being the 

coldest night (lows: 33-39). This temperature drop could harm any 

sensitive crops and vegetation.



Copple



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)

Issued at 604 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024



A cold front will depart the area later today, veering winds from 

southerly to westerly by this afternoon. Wind speeds will remain 

gusty today with gusts up to 30-35 kt. Another brief period of MVFR 

ceilings will be possible by mid morning, but should only impact 

northern TAF sites (KBMI, KPIA). Winds will lessen closer to 00Z 

with sustained speeds of 12 kt or less.



Copple



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$