####018004838#### FXUS63 KAPX 101045 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 645 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower chances tonight and Saturday. - Patchy frost possible Saturday morning. - Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Synopsis/Pattern: High pressure extends ne-ward into the upper MS Valley and western Lk Superior. Low pressure over far northern Ontario extends a cold front toward Winnipeg and eastern ND. Aloft, a digging shortwave will deepen and close off as it heads for the northern lakes. This will result in a surface wave deepening along the cold front, with the resulting low directly over our heads at daybreak Saturday. Forecast: Lights winds this morning will give way to a weak west synoptic wind this afternoon. Flow will be weak enough for lake breeze development. Localized convergence will be highest somewhat inland in ne lower MI, and where lake breezes collide in eastern upper. Instability looks meager, maybe 100-200j/kg, but we've got enough localized forcing to take advantage of minimal Cape. Will maintain a slight chance for a shower this afternoon in parts of eastern upper and ne lower MI. Otherwise a partly to mostly sunny day, though with clouds increasing late. Max temps in the 60s. Tonight, isentropic ascent increases in a relatively narrow ribbon, ahead of a deepening surface low and amplifying 500mb wave. Moisture availability is somewhat limited, with surface ridging dominating the se states and central plains. But forcing will be enough to generate showers in a portion of the area. In the evening and early overnight, will mention a chance of showers w of I-75 in both peninsulas. Showers will progress se- ward with time; likely pops forecast overnight in the sw third of the forecast area (including MBL/TVC/Gladwin. Pops decrease to a slight chance or less north of the big bridge. Looks to be on the cloudy side across the area. Min temps within a few degrees of 40f. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: An upper-level low tracks into Northern Michigan spreading rain showers/shallow convection across the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Moisture advection and more energy tracking overhead Sunday into next week will result in the chance for rain showers once again for the next several days. However, as previously stated, a brief break in activity could be possible mid next week (Tuesday/ Wednesday) as energy looks to be situated to the north and south of the region while in a more zonal flow. Unsettled weather returns for later in the week as another system impacts the CWA bringing back chances for rain showers. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Rain showers/ shallow convection Saturday; patchy frost possible Saturday morning: Winds shift northerly Friday into Saturday as a low pressure tracks across Northern Michigan. As such, a cold airmass is drawn southward into the region, leading to the possibility of enough instability to create a rumble of thunder or two, especially in the afternoon. With the cooler airmass overhead, winds expected to become light, clouds clearing, and temperatures expected to drop into the 30s, the possibility arises that patchy frost could be a concern for Saturday morning. This potential is mainly for interior/higher terrain and the typical valley locations. - Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday into early next week: A short-lived ridge builds in for Saturday evening into Sunday promoting clearing for Saturday night. As winds shift more southerly for Sunday, a warming trend in temperatures is expected as we head into next week. With these southerly winds, a flux of moisture will be brought to the region along with increasing clouds and more chances for rain showers (with possible embedded thunderstorms) next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR thru this evening. Some restrictions possible overnight. Low pressure will cross northern MI early Saturday. Just VFR conditions thru this evening. As the low approaches, clouds increase and lower tonight. MVFR cigs and some -SHRA will be possible overnight at PLN/TVC/MBL. Mainly light winds today. Onshore lake breezes this afternoon/evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...JZ ####018006215#### FXUS61 KBUF 101045 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 645 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A wavy frontal boundary to our south will keep some rain across the area through tonight. The most persistent chances for wet weather will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Cool and unsettled weather will generally remain in place for much of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure wave continuing to develop over the Mid Atlantic region along nearly stationary frontal boundary extending back through the Ohio Valley. Area of rain north of the boundary will expand northward today as an inverted trough north of the surface wave gradually shifts westward through the region. The better coverage of steadier rain will focus across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes tapering down to scattered showers across the Niagara Frontier and toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. Cloud cover, rain and a north to northeast low level flow will keep temperatures below average with much of the area only reaching in the 50s for afternoon highs. A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area tonight, accompanied by significant mid level drying. This will allow the showers and areas of steadier rain to taper off from west to east, although some spotty showers should persist from the Genesee Valley eastward. Lows temperatures will be a little cooler than the previous night with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A mid-level trough will dig into the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday. An associated area of low pressure over Lower Michigan will slowly move towards western NY. Initially, mostly dry weather is expected Saturday morning. A few showers will remain possible from residual moisture from a departing mid-level trough east of Lake Ontario. Strong ascent and modest moisture will enter western NY by Saturday afternoon. Showers will increase in coverage, while additional showers may develop along a prefrontal trough across central and north central NY through the afternoon. Unfavorable conditions for thunderstorms due to cool and cloudy conditions with a weak wind field. However, due to the sharp trough digging into the region during peak heating, a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out across the western Southern Tier into Saturday evening. Rainfall amounts will average 0.10-0.25 inches Saturday through Saturday night. Higher amounts expected in any thunderstorms across the western Southern Tier. The mid-level trough will catch up with the surface reflection and this stacked system will weaken as it sits over the forecast area Saturday night. Showers will be possible across most of the region overnight. Drier air may limit shower chances across the Niagara Frontier. The mid-level trough outruns the low-level low and moves east of the region Sunday. The surface low will continue to weaken across the forecast area. Unfortunately this will lead to another cool and mostly cloudy day with low chances for light showers. Ridging and warm air advection will result in dry weather Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging will move into the eastern Great Lakes as another potent shortwave moves across the Central Plains Monday. A warm front will move through the forecast area and showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Monday through Monday night. Weak troughing will move into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front will slowly cross the forecast area and unsettled conditions will persist into mid-week. There is good agreement that ridging will move into the Great Lakes region while a large area of high pressure extends from eastern Canada to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry weather is likely across the forecast area during this time. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal next work week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue early this morning at all TAF sites with cigs at or above 6K feet. There will be some patchy light rain, but any restrictions should be limited to some MVFR VSBY in patchy fog across the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Areas of rain and MVFR CIGS will expand across just the entire area today. Areas of IFR conditions are expected across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region, including areas of fog in these same areas which may reduce VSBY down into the IFR at times as well. Exception will be toward Niagara County (KIAG) where they may escape with no lower than low VFR CIGS (3-5kft). Mainly VFR is expected toward the Saint Lawrence Valley, with low VFR CIGS (3-5kft) expected toward KART, and MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario from late morning on. Outlook... Tonight...MVFR to VFR conditions from west to east, with lingering rain showers also ending from west to east. Saturday...VFR CIGS deteriorating to MVFR with increasing likelihood for showers. Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS in scattered showers. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. && .MARINE... Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15 knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at times moderate chop through today. However, there are no Small Craft conditions forecast. Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH/TMA NEAR TERM...JM/RSH/TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...JM/TMA MARINE...JM/TMA ####018006342#### FXUS63 KLMK 101045 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 645 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy and cooler to end the week with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. * Gusty showers possible, mainly northeast of Louisville Saturday afternoon. * Active pattern next week with daily chances of showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected through at least Tuesday. Strong storm chances may increase slightly by Wednesday and again Friday, but confidence is low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The first of a series of shortwave troughs will be located across southern IN and the Ohio River this morning. It will push a mid- level vort max and a weak sfc bounary through the area this morning into the early afternoon. Current GOES-16 nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a band of low stratus just north of the Ohio River into southern IN and all of Ohio. These clouds will spread southward during the pre-dawn hours and there is a small chance we could see a few sprinkles or pockets of drizzle but most will remain dry during the morning hours. As the boundary drops south into central and southern KY during the day, winds will become northerly and a bit breezy with sustained winds around 10 mph and gusts of 20 to 25 mph. The northerly flow will advect in colder air to make for a below normal and brisk end to the week. Clouds are expect to slowly clear out towards the afternoon, but depending on quickly the clear out from north to south temperatures should mainly be in the mid/upper 60s but if we get more sunshine to the north a few locations could top out to near or even low 70s. There is also a slight chance of afternoon showers around the Lake Cumberland region close to the departing boundary and shortwave. Skies will clear and winds will dimininish during the evenining. This will lead to temperatures in the 40s to near 50 overnight. The second shortwave trough will drop out of the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley overnight and be just north of thRivere Ohio River in southern IN tomorrow morning. This will increase cloud cover towards daybreak tomorrow and start to increase the chance of a few showers towards dawn. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Saturday... An intense shortwave (trop fold down to 500mb) will rotate through the Great Lakes region on Saturday. There looks to be a decent amount of moisture in the 850-700mb layer that will accompany the shortwave, especially across our NE CWA. Forecast soundings show very steep low level lapse rates from late morning through the afternoon, with some healthy positive area below the inversion around 700 mb. Given that, expect scattered showers to rotate through our region, with the best coverage across our NE where moisture is most impressive. Also noticing that the BL will be mixed up into a 30 knot layer, which will support gusty conditions at the surface. Will advertise gusts mostly in the 25 to 30 mph range through the afternoon. A few gusts will likely reach 35 mph, especially with shower activity. Look for temps peaking in the 70 to 75 degree range, but the gusty winds may make this day feel a bit cooler than reality. Saturday Night - Sunday Night... The rest of the weekend looks dry with surface high pressure in place beneath dry NW flow aloft. Highs on Sunday should be a bit milder, and more solidly into the mid 70s for many. Look for 40s to around 50 for lows on Saturday night, and a milder night in the low and mid 50s heading into Monday morning. Monday - Wednesday... Our chances for more widespread showers and a few storms picks up again through the early to mid week timeframe as a closed low meandering over the easter Plains gets picked up by the northern stream westerlies and ejects into our region. This feature is expected to be pretty moisture laden given its original Pacific origin, and slow movement drawing plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture as well. As a result, forecast soundings take on a tall/skinny profile in conjunction with PWATs up around 1.5 through the column. Doesn't appear to be a whole lot of instability to work with, but enough to warrant continue thunderstorm mention. Highs should mostly be in the mid/upper 70s through this stretch, although could see temps struggling a bit under a moist, showery, and cloudy setup. Diurnal ranges should generally be smaller in this setup, so looking for milder nights only dropping down around 60 for most. Wednesday Night - Thursday... Decent confidence for a brief dry spell Wednesday night into Thursday beneath shortwave ridging and surface high pressure in the wake of the mid week system. Looking for highs in the upper 70s and low 80s under partly sunny skies. The brief dry spell will be welcome as another, and possibly stronger system, arrives to end the work week. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms look possible then. Pattern looks like it could support some stronger storms. Something to watch through next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 641 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Low stratus associated with a shortwave trough will continue to push southward this morning then eventually lift and clear out later this afternoon. We will see some MVFR flight categories for most locations at the beginning of the forecast period but start to see improvement from north to south as CIGs lift to VFR through the late morning into the early afternoon. Winds will remain breezy out of the north and could get gusts of around 20kts this afternoon. Clouds will scatter out and clear overnight with winds diminishing remaining VFR through the rest of the forecast. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...BTN ####018004413#### FXUS62 KGSP 101047 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 647 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another system will bring showers and thunder this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in through the weekend. An active pattern will set in for the new workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM: Widespread cirrus associated with a thunderstorm complex moving by to our S will continue to move over the area this morning. This has not stopped the development of low stratus across much of the area which will continue through mid morning. A few showers, or even a thunderstorm, will move into the Upper Savannah River Valley early this morning before they become isolated through the rest of the morning. A short wave will swing across the area from the NW today, after some weak short wave energy this morning. A low pressure center will move east along the slow moving cold front moving south across the area. This, along with lingering moisture, will create scattered convection over portions of the NC mountains and I-77 corridor, with isolated convection elsewhere. Instability is expected to develop during the afternoon, especially across the CLT Metro area where MUCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg. Weaker instability is expected elsewhere. Strong bulk shear develops in the Metro area as well. The instability and shear combined with the forcing could lead to isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail the main threats. Outside of storms, gusty gradient winds are also expected. Highs will be a little above normal. The convection should taper off quickly during the evening as drier air moves in and forcing moves east. Gusts will taper off outside of the mountains but linger across portions of the higher elevations. Skies clear with some mountain valley fog possible. Lows will be around 5 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 AM EDT Friday: Expect a brief period of flattening uppper heights on Saturday, before another shortwave dives down into the Mid Atlantic Saturday night. Operational guidance depicts a swath of deep moisture associated with this feature, but it arrives slowly. Increasing cirrus from Saturday night onward...becoming overcast by late Sunday. Model profiles indicate enough subsidence to inhibit any thunder Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Temperatures will be 1-2 categories below normal on Saturday, rising to within a category of normal on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 312 AM EDT Friday: Typical late spring pattern resumes on Monday with a wavy upper pattern. The bulk of guidance has some flavor of a deep trough or closed upper low drifting out of the Ozarks late Monday and into Tuesday, ushering in better moisture. Instability looks anemic on Monday and Tuesday, but by Wednesday, the GFS and CMC both depict a plume of afternoon CAPE intersecting a well-sheared environment. Wednesday thus looks like it could perhaps be our next severe weather day. Temps will be near or just below normal Monday, falling to at least a category below normal on Tuesday. Things will warm back up on Wednesday and beyond. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Copious high clouds will remain over the area this morning. Some VFR stratocu will also be seen at KAVl and KHKY. IFR to LIFR stratus will continue through 15Z or so for all but KHKY/KAVL. Guidance showing better chance of convection at KCLT than the rest of the sites, so have converted the PROB30 to a TEMPO there. W to SW wind this morning becomes gusty from the WNW for the afternoon. The gusty winds continue from the NW to N into the evening before diminishing. KAVL will see NNW wind throughout with very gusty conditions during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: Drier and likely VFR conditions can be expected this weekend. Moisture returns late Monday with active weather possible by Tuesday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...RWH ####018004719#### FXUS61 KRNK 101047 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 647 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front wish push through the area this morning bringing cooler air and gusty winds. A few showers will also be possible through Saturday. Dry high pressure is expected on Monday, followed by a widespread probability of precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Cold front crosses through the region today. 2) Gusty winds and cooler temperatures. A cold front is in the process of crossing the area this morning. A few showers associated with the front continue early this morning, but will taper off by daybreak. Winds become gusty behind the front today, generally out of the WNW and perhaps a few gusts to 30mph are possible in the higher elevations. Along with gusty winds, drier dew points will push in throughout the day, so will have a much drier feel to the air. With the passage of the upper low, could have some afternoon showers develop, with perhaps an isolated chance of a rumble of thunder across the Piedmont areas where heating will be the greatest. Winds subside a bit overnight and temperatures drop into the 40s. A few low 40s possible in the highest elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 500 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for cooler conditions this weekend. 2) Mountain rain showers will be possible during Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. In the wake of a frontal passage early this weekend, large scale northwest flow will set up from Canada right into the Mid- Atlantic. This will provide cooler temperatures over the weekend, with lows in the 40s and daily high temperatures just eking into the 70s east of the Blue Ridge, mid 60s west. An embedded shortwave within the broader trough will move south on Saturday, encouraging some scattered shower formation. The lack of instability and drier air mass will prevent strong thunderstorms, but it wouldn't be surprising to see a flash of lightning here or there Saturday afternoon. A surface high will take over most of the eastern seaboard and cut off any more rain chances on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for warmer conditions by next week. 2) Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will return with the highest odds possible by Tuesday. Monday should start dry with high pressure across the Mid Atlantic. The high should head offshore later in the day to provide warm air advection and moisture advection from southwest flow. However, this increase in warmth and moisture will combine with an approaching Rocky low moving through the MS River valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return late Monday/early Tuesday. Isolated convection may reach the southern Blue Ridge and far southwest Virginia by Monday night, but the greatest odds for showers and thunderstorms appears to be Tuesday. Moisture will linger through Wednesday, but the abundant cloud cover might somewhat limit the thunder chances. Weak high pressure could bring a brief reprieve during Thursday morning, but another low pressure system may approach from the west by late Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Friday... As the cold front passes through this morning, surface and low- level winds turn from the southwest to west, then with a second short wave, winds become northwest this afternoon. Models suggesting some stronger gusts through this evening. Should be around 20-25kts with highest gusts near ROA/TNB/HSP. Winds will relax after sunset and will remain through tonight. Upslope stratocu appears likely today across the WV mountains so some sub-VFR at BLF/LWB expected. A few showers possible but coverage is too low overall to have in the tafs. Extended Aviation Outlook... Some upslope mountain showers may occur through Saturday night. VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday under dry, high pressure. The probability of precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities increases on Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system in the central United States. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...PW/VFJ AVIATION...BMG ####018007372#### FXUS64 KFWD 101048 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 548 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: An overall quiet morning is unfolding across North and Central Texas, with a smattering of low clouds lingering across North Texas. Upper level cirrus has begun streaming in from the west and will continue to do so through today. We're still expecting a low chance of showers across our southwestern counties this afternoon, but most should stay dry due to a deep dry layer under the mid- level cloud base. Guidance continues to highlight tomorrow afternoon as a better window for rain chances across the region. Guidance is quite lacking on overall instability for tomorrow, with the HRRR absolutely not for it. The NAMNest has a bit more instability, but the question is: is it enough to work with the abundant shear to promote a stronger storm or two? We'll need to watch model trends and environmental observations to see. Not much has changed from the previous forecast, so the discussion directly below remains valid. Prater Previous Discussion: /Today through Saturday Afternoon/ With the cold front fully though North and Central Texas, cooler and drier air will continue to filter in overnight. The front will continue to move through South Texas as the base of the more progressive northern longwave trough to our northeast swings through the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas. With the cut- off low still stagnant to our west, this will cause ridging to build across the Southern Plains to end out the week. Overall, subsident air will keep things on the quieter end of the ledge, aside from a couple of shortwave impulses providing enough isentropic ascent for isolated rain chances each afternoon. The first impulse will round the apex of the ridge this afternoon. Isolated showers are expected to form to our west across the Edwards Plateau and move eastward over our Central Texas counties. Guidance generally has the activity weakening as it moves across our area, with the more "robust" reflectivity in our far southwestern counties. Additionally, forecast soundings show a deep dry layer under where the rain would fall from (~500-600mb). This would promote evaporation of much of the rain before it gets to the ground. Have persisted in only having a mention of 20% PoPs for our southeast counties, with 10% or less PoPs elsewhere in Central Texas for today as most will likely stay dry. Afternoon highs will peak in the 70s to low 80s, which are near to below normal for this time of year. On Saturday, the aforementioned cut-off low to our west will de- amplify into a more open wave trough and begin to move eastward. While the trough will not impact our short-term sensible weather, a stronger impulse out ahead of the low will move across the region and break down the ridge. We'll have better rain and storm chances across our western counties over the afternoon hours as stronger ascent will overspread the region. No severe weather is expected with this activity, but there looks to be enough elevated instability for a few lightning strikes. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ /Sunday Onward/ Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will materialize for the second half of Mother's Day weekend and will continue into Monday to begin the workweek. This will be due to a deepening upper low and attendant diffuse surface system which will make eastward progress through the Southern Plains beginning early Sunday morning. Height falls ahead of this system will allow more robust southerly flow and northward moisture advection to occur prior to the arrival of a weak surface cold front and broad mid-level dynamic ascent. This should culminate in scattered and mostly disorganized convection beginning Sunday morning, with coverage increasing through the daytime. Instability will likely not recover to values supportive of severe weather, at least not on an organized level. However, a sufficient parameter space for perhaps a couple of strong storms with mainly a hail threat could exist, and this would be more likely across Central Texas where instability should be greatest. In addition, moderate to heavy rainfall may cause minor flooding issues, particularly due to already saturated grounds from above average rainfall over the past several weeks. Localized 24-hour rain totals of 1-2" are plausible. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into the daytime Monday on a more isolated/scattered basis, likely with one final chance for convective activity along this system's weak slow- moving cold front. This boundary will bring slightly drier air to the region, scouring rain chances to the southeast in the process. Despite this front's passage, temperatures on Monday afternoon will probably be a few degrees warmer than Sunday's highs due to less widespread cloud cover and a bit of insolation returning late in the day. With upper-level shortwave ridging following on the heels of the departing trough, dry and warmer weather will prevail on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will resume Wednesday and Thursday next week as yet another strong shortwave deepens over the Central High Plains. This may bring a more traditional and favorable setup for severe convection to portions of the area with active dryline and cold front boundaries to our north and west. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Multiple layers of VFR clouds are moving across the region, mainly over D10 this morning. VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Northerly winds will increase through the afternoon to 10-15 kts with slightly higher gusts, veering slightly at times to the northeast. Very low chances for rain still exist at ACT, but are too uncertain and isolated to include in the TAF. Expect winds to decrease with the loss of daytime heating to less than 10 kts through the overnight hours. Near daybreak, winds will have veered further east to around 090, varying between ENE and ESE through the end of the 30 hour period. This is included in KDFW's TAF. Additional chances for showers and storms are expected Saturday afternoon and will be discussed in further issuances. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 62 78 63 73 / 0 5 5 30 60 Waco 80 62 77 63 72 / 10 10 20 30 80 Paris 80 57 80 60 75 / 0 5 5 10 40 Denton 79 58 77 59 72 / 0 10 5 30 60 McKinney 80 59 78 61 73 / 0 5 5 20 60 Dallas 82 63 79 62 74 / 0 5 5 30 60 Terrell 80 59 77 62 73 / 0 5 5 20 60 Corsicana 82 62 78 64 75 / 5 5 5 30 70 Temple 80 62 77 63 74 / 20 10 20 30 80 Mineral Wells 79 60 75 60 71 / 5 10 20 40 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018003524#### FXUS61 KILN 101050 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 650 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A fast moving upper disturbance will pass across the area early this morning. High pressure will briefly build in during the day. A trough of low pressure will swing across the region late tonight into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Positively tilted upper trough is sliding across the region early this morning. Showers are occurring out ahead of this feature are still moving across central Ohio, but should exit the region shortly. Clouds will decrease in the wake of the trough and surface ridging will extending into the region this afternoon. It will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Next short wave in active northwest flow will approach the region late tonight and move across the area on Saturday, deepening as it does. Surface low associated with this will stay well north of the area, but a well defined trough (not really a cold front as it will be warmer once this passes) extending from the parent low will cross the area. A band of showers, possibly with some embedded thunder, will occur just ahead of this trough, developing southward as the entire system moves east. Will once again see an improvement in sky condition once this system passes. But cannot rule out some additional isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon, generally in central Ohio where it will be a bit unstable due to the juxtaposition of cooler temperatures aloft and surface heating. It will be a cool night with most places falling into the mid to upper 40s. But some warming will occur on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure tracking across Tennessee will provide dry weather Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front developing to the northwest will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms that may move in Monday afternoon. Potent low pressure moving up the boundary from the southwest is forecast to bring numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Lingering moisture to the southeast may allow a few showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs Sunday are expected to reach the low and mid 70s in the circulation around high pressure, with mid and upper 70s forecast for Monday in the increasing southwest flow ahead of the cold front. A retreat to the upper 60s to mid 70s is indicated for Tuesday behind the front, before temperatures rise through the 70s Wednesday and the mid 70s to around 80 on Thursday under renewed warm advection. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lingering MVFR ceilings the Cincinnati area will lift early. By 12Z expect VFR ceilings which will then scatter this morning. VFR ceilings will spread back in late in the period. North winds will be around 10 to 15 kt today and then weaken and veer after 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday morning. MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as thunderstorms possible Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...