####018006325#### FXUS62 KTAE 121038 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 638 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 450 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 - There is an increased risk of showers producing waterspouts this morning off the Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Wakulla, and Taylor County Coastline. - There is a medium chance (40 to 60%) of needing Heat Advisories for heat indices at or above 108 degrees across most of our Florida counties into southern Georgia on Saturday. Those who are sensitive to heat or do not have access to adequate cooling or hydration could be impacted by the heat. - There is a low chance (20%) of a stray shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze this afternoon with isolated to scattered coverage this weekend (20-50%). Higher rain chances are expected for the early to middle part of next week. - A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to return to our area beaches heading into this weekend. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local officials. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Another mainly dry day is expected today with slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. Widespread high temperatures in the mid 90s are expected away from the coast with near 90 along the coast. Upper level ridging over the area will continue to suppress convection with only very isolated convection expected along the seabreeze today. Peak heat index values will approach the heat advisory criteria of 108F across the Apalachicola National Forest and portions of the Florida big bend, but current indications are that 108F heat indices will be isolated if they occur this afternoon, so we'll forego a heat advisory for today. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The heat will continue for Saturday with similar temperatures and just a smidge more low level moisture. This is expected to result in two things: 1) A few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms around the area, but still low coverage overall, and 2) Slightly higher dewpoints, which will result in slightly higher heat index values. Thus, there remains a medium chance that a heat advisory will be needed for Saturday afternoon, mainly across our Florida counties into adjacent southern Georgia. Peak heat index values of 105-110F are expected, and the local criteria is 108F. Beyond Saturday, there remains good consensus that the ridge will break down as a trough moves through the Ohio River Valley. An additional shortwave moving through the broad scale trough will push a frontal boundary into the southeast states by Monday into Tuesday, further enhancing rain chances. As a result, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase early next week as forecast high temperatures decrease. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all terminals with light westerly winds which will back to South-Southwest at ECP and TLH this afternoon with the seabreeze passage. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Mainly light west to southwest winds will prevail through this weekend with some local enhancements along the coast in association with the seabreeze. As a frontal system approaches next week, stronger southwesterly to westerly flow will develop with seas building to 3 to 5 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Hot and mostly dry weather will prevail through today. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the middle 90s with only isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze in our Florida Districts. Heat indices are expected to be in the 103 to 107 degrees this afternoon and slightly higher for Saturday. MinRH will generally drop to between 40 to 50 percent this afternoon through Saturday before increasing slightly Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will also increase somewhat this weekend as moisture returns to the region. However, the best chance of wetting rains will come next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 No significant flash or riverine flooding is expected through the weekend. Locally heavy downpours are expected within any showers and storms that develop. For early next week, some potential exists for heavier rain as a slow moving front moves into the area with high precipitable water values. In the meantime, it's been a very dry start to June. The Tallahassee area is currently tied for the 5th driest start to June on record with only 0.02 inches of rain so far at the airport through the first 11 days of the month. Severe to exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the most beneficial recent rains. The drought features long term impacts that are affecting rivers, lakes, and ponds that are still below normal despite recent rains. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 76 96 76 / 20 10 40 10 Panama City 90 78 91 79 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 95 76 96 75 / 0 0 30 20 Albany 95 78 96 77 / 10 10 30 20 Valdosta 95 77 97 77 / 20 10 40 20 Cross City 94 77 95 77 / 20 0 20 10 Apalachicola 89 78 90 79 / 10 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...LF MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD ####018005705#### FXUS62 KGSP 121039 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 639 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Mainly diurnal convection is forecast through the weekend, with isolated severe storms possible. 2. Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Mainly diurnal convection is forecast through the weekend, with isolated severe storms possible. A series of shortwave troughs will track thru the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, gradually breaking down upper ridging over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. The resulting deep-layer westerly flow will keep elevated low-level thicknesses and above-normal temps across the area thru the weekend. Muggy conditions and strong heating today will allow for fairly strong instability this aftn, with up to 2500 J/kg of sbCAPE. Deep-layer shear will remain weak, but may be enough to support a few strong to severe storms, mainly in the mtns and NC Piedmont. Damaging wind will be the main threat, as storms could loosely cluster along outflow boundaries. Convection may track into the Piedmont this evening, but guidance remains mixed on how much lingers past sunset. Overall, trends seem to be down slightly on the latest CAMs on coverage and intensity compared to yesterday's runs. A weak front pushes into the area tonight, and stalls on Saturday. Then another cold front approaches from the west on Sunday. This should keep decent diurnal convective chances around thru the weekend. Sunday may see the highest chances over the next few days, as a more pronounced shortwave and attendant cold front crosses the forecast area. A few severe storms, with damaging winds being the primary threat, can be expected both days. The medium range guidance generally agrees on a broad longwave trough setting up across the eastern CONUS Monday thru Wednesday, but disagree on how far south a frontal zone will push and allow dry air to spread in from the north. The 00z ECMWF and Canadian show more drying than the GFS. Either way, temperatures will trend down to slightly below normal thru midweek, and convection should remain largely diurnal and pulse mode. Key message 2: Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. Under the influence of an upper ridge, conditions are expected to be quite hot through the weekend, with temps close to 10 deg above normal today and 5-8 deg above normal Saturday and Sunday. With the axis of the ridge overhead, today is expected to be the hottest day, with highs in the mid 90s across the Piedmont, and lower 90s in the mountain valleys. Dewpts may mix out into the upper 60s this aftn, but max heat indices of 98-102 across most of the lower elevations. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Charlotte and areas south and east, where heat indices will approach 105. The ridge will begin to flatten with a series of shortwaves tracking thru the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. Saturday is expected to be a little "cooler," but still above normal, with some potential for near-Heat Advisory criteria being met across the Lakelands, especially Saturday afternoon. Temps may warm slightly again Sunday in advance of approaching frontal zone, with again some potential for near-Heat Advisory criteria. Temperatures begin a cooling trend at the beginning of the new work week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Other than some fog around KAVL until about 13z, VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today. Winds will pick up out of the SW, generally 5-10 kt, with a few low-end gusts to around 15-16 kt possible at the Upstate sites this aftn. Isolated to scattered TSRA expected to develop across the mountains late aftn/early evening, with some tracking east/southeast into the NC Piedmont thru the evening. Still expected highest coverage over NC sites. So will continue with PROB30 for some TS at the NC TAF sites (guidance continues to trend later with convection this evening). Convection in the Upstate looks very isolated, so only VCSH at KGSP and KGMU for early evening. Winds may be variable around convection this evening, then favoring a NW direction mid to late evening into tonight, as a weak cold front crosses the area. With light moist N flow up the valley, could see fog and/or low stratus at KAVL late tonight. Confidence on any restrictions elsewhere is low at this time. Outlook: Diurnal convection and associated restrictions are expected into early next week. Valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning, primarily in the mountain valleys. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 06-12 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 91 2016 61 1903 69 1981 40 1988 1894 1964 1972 KCLT 98 1956 64 1913 74 1998 45 1972 1926 1986 1902 1943 KGSP 99 1914 61 1913 74 1981 47 1972 1920 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ071-072-082. SC...None. && $$ ARK