####018004407#### FXHW60 PHFO 290145 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 345 PM HST Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong and gusty easterly trade winds are expected into Friday as high pressure strengthens north of the state. Showers will favor windward and mountain areas with some reaching the leeward areas. Drier and more stable conditions will return over the weekend, with the easterly trades easing into the moderate to breezy range. Rainfall chances could trend up again early next week as an upper disturbance moves through and trade winds increase. && .DISCUSSION... A 1033 mb surface high north of the area will drive strong trade winds through tonight. This has prompted a Wind Advisory for the typically windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island through tonight. In addition to the winds, spotty windward shower coverage is expected, especially overnight through the morning periods due to a sufficient amount of low level moisture and a weak upper trough in the area. These showers will be moving through swiftly with minimal accumulations anticipated. Drier and more stable conditions will briefly return over the weekend as upper heights rise and precipitable water dip to around an inch. Trade winds are expected to ease into the moderate range due to a weakness forming in the ridge as a front passes to the north. A return of breezy to strong trades is anticipated through the first half of next week as high pressure builds north of the state (near 1050 mb). Model differences still remain with the GFS being stronger with the winds, while the ECMWF has a more moderate solution. Regardless of these differences, both depict an upper trough digging southward over the region creating an increased chance of heavier trade wind showers Monday through midweek. && .AVIATION... A surface high north of the islands will strengthen and bring strong trades through tomorrow. SHRA and low cigs possible windward and mauka locations. Coverage will be more scattered in nature so no AIRMETs are out for MTN OBSC. AIRMET Tango out for tempo moderate turb lee of the island terrain. Also for 30 kt or greater winds from Molokai to the Big Island. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will support strong to gale force trade winds into Friday, then strong trades will persist into the first half of the weekend for some coastal zones. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through Friday afternoon, with the exception of the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, where a Gale Warning is in effect through tonight followed by a SCA on Friday. Next week, another high pressure building into the region from the northwest is expected to continue the breezy trend across the coastal waters. Strong trades will create rough and choppy surf along east facing shores into next week. A small, medium period northwest swell will fade tonight, trending surf heights slightly down along north and west facing shores on Friday while remaining well below advisory levels. A series of small medium to long period northwest swells are expected through early next week. Mainly background surf will continue for south facing shores through the weekend with some small, long period energy arriving early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Lanai Mauka-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island Southeast-Big Island North. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay- Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Friday for Pailolo Channel- Alenuihaha Channel. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Friday for Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Vaughan