####018004393#### FXUS61 KBGM 260717 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 317 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control with dry weather through Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below freezing again tonight. Saturday and Sunday, a warm front moves through bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Quiet and calm conditions continue tonight with temperatures starting to fall. Updated temperatures using a blend of current observations and the forecast. 7 PM Update... High pressure remains in control and the forecast is on-track. No changes needed at this time. 130 pm update... A large surface remains in control this period as it moves southeast to be centered over the area tonight then to the coast Friday and Friday night. The air with the high is cool and dry at the surface. Aloft a broad upper level trough over the northeast US will move east being replaced by a ridge centered over NY/PA Friday night. The low level flow out of the north and light this afternoon will become southwest Friday. Friday into Friday night warmer air will advect in. After 2 nearly clear days today and Friday, moisture will come in aloft late Friday night. With dry air, clear skies, and a calm wind temperatures fall tonight into the mid and upper 20s and lower 30s. Friday afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Friday night temperatures will be warmer again with lows mostly in the 30s. Winds will be light with dewpoint temperatures rising to around 30. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... We look to be firmly in a warm sector Saturday night through Monday. While the warm front stays to our north, enough moisture looks to be in place to continue a mention for isolated showers and even thunderstorms as the instability increases a bit as well. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate highs in the 70's Sunday and even the low 80's Monday. With the amount of moisture on the increase low temperatures may struggle to fall much below 60 Sunday night. The GFS has been giving the hint of the warm front becoming a backdoor cold front offering a cooler and showier outcome, till other model support is present will not trend the forecast in this direction. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around 500-1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60's. In terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 20-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over the next several days. Overall, the trend is slightly weaker for these thunderstorms compared to yesterday. Overall this front is trending weaker as well not really bringing in much in the way of a cooling trend till the next front moves through on Thursday. With this slower solution, a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible through mid week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR conditions expected at all terminals with mostly clear skies. Winds are light and variable overnight, with south easterly flow returning tomorrow morning. Outlook... Friday night...VFR. Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings. Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/TAC NEAR TERM...ES/MPK/TAC SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...ES/MPK/TAC