####018008563#### FXUS62 KGSP 042308 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 608 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation returns tonight, resulting in a wintry mix across the North Carolina mountains and Foothills. Precipitation chances and below-normal temperatures linger through the first part of next week. Temperatures trend back toward normal by mid-week. Another cold front may bring precipitation back to the area Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Wintry precip expected across the NC mountains and even parts of the NC Foothills tonight into Friday morning...with a mix of snow and freezing rain expected in the mountains, and mainly snow expected in the Foothills. 2) Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7PM this evening through Friday morning for portions of the NC mountains (no changes from previous forecast). 3) Precip will change over to rain and will taper off by early Friday afternoon, but cold and cloudy conditions will continue A southern stream upper-level shortwave trough will become sheared out as its energy merges with a northern stream trough currently crossing the Great Lakes. This energy will strengthen an upper jet streak over the Mid- Atlantic, which will support some upper divergence atop the forecast area tonight into Friday. The southern stream jet will continue to spread a lot of mid and upper moisture across the region, maintaining a thick cirrus shield thru the rest of the day. Even spotty light rain or sprinkles may reach the ground in the far southern part of the forecast area, but no measurable amounts expected thru sunset. Temps may struggle to get into the 50s across most of the area this aftn as a result of the clouds. Tonight, the center of a 1030 mb sfc high pres will track into Upstate NY and weaken as it reaches the New England coast by late Friday. The high will be in a good position to produce a hybrid cold air damming wedge into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, cyclogenesis will occur along the central Gulf Coast and spread frontogenesis and isentropic lift along a stalled frontal boundary across the Southeast. The low will quickly track east along a baroclinic zone to the Carolina Coast overnight. Forcing doesn't look appreciably strong, so QPF is expected to be light, but categorical PoPs look on track for the overnight thru early Friday morning. Low- level thicknesses are a little colder than the previous winter wx event, allowing for more snow and sleet to start out this evening into the overnight across the higher elevations. A warm nose will punch in from the SW and change precip over to mostly rain and freezing rain by daybreak Friday. No big changes were seen in the latest guidance on temps or QPF, so the current Winter Weather Advisory looks good. In addition to the mountains, up to half an inch of snow may accumulate out across the foothills and NW Piedmont north of I-40, but should change over to rain by mid-morning Friday. Impacts from this don't seem to warrant expanding the advisory at this time. Temps will lock in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the high elevations and along the eastern NC Escarpment, and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. By midday Friday, the upper shortwave will exit to our east and take the better isentropic lift with it. Sfc low pressure will begin to deepen near the Outer Banks, but a residual CAD wedge will linger thru the rest of the day. Precip chances taper off from NW to SE, but low clouds and fog will persist, keeping temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most of the area. All but the highest ridges of the northern mountains are expected to get above freezing by the end of the day. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1210 PM Thu: Model guidance has trended drier in the wake of the departing low pressure system Friday night into Saturday. That said, another low pressure center moves east along the stalled frontal boundary to our south. This will bring a return of some moisture and weak forcing, however; this will mainly be limited to NE GA and the Upstate with some slight chances for NC. Even with the lingering cold air, this will help limit the chance of any wintry precip to the highest elevations of the NC mountains, with no significant additional accums expected. The stalled frontal boundary does move south Saturday night, but yet another wave of low pressure spins up and moves east along the front. A northern stream short wave also moves into the area bringing an increase in moisture and forcing. The Canadian model has trended significantly drier with this system, while the GFS and ECMWF remain on the dry side. This is due to the surface low being farther south and less interaction with the northern stream short wave limiting moisture return into the area. Still, there is enough moisture and forcing for chance PoP to return Sunday and Sunday night. Temps look to be warm enough for just rain for all but the higher elevations of the NC mountains where any wintry precip would be snow. There could be a decent period of snowfall for the higher elevations, but it's too early for good confidence on any accums. Precip chances taper off quickly Monday as the low and short wave move east of the area. Lows near normal Friday night rise a few degrees by Sunday night. Highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal Saturday rise a few degrees on Sunday, then fall back to around 10 degrees below normal Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Thu: Quasi-zonal flow develops on Tuesday with southwest flow developing late Wednesday ahead of a northern stream short wave diving toward the area. The short wave crosses the area late Wednesday night or Thursday. At the surface, high pressure settles over the area Tuesday then moves east Wednesday. A cold front crosses the area late Wednesday night or Thursday. Moisture and forcing do increase with the front, but there is no significant Gulf or Atlantic inflow ahead of the front. Also, the air mass moderates significantly Wed into Thu as the high moves east well out of cold air damming range. This will help keep precip as rain for all but the higher elevations of the NC mountains where precip may begin as or mix with snow with some additional northwest flow snowfall after frontal passage on Thursday. Accumulations are possible but too early for any specifics. Lows around 10 degrees below normal Monday night rise to slightly above normal by Wednesday night. Highs Tuesday around 10 degrees below normal rise to around 5 degrees below normal for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Conditions start off VFR at all terminals early this evening, but that will be short lived with deteriorating conditions through the overnight and persisting through the remainder of the TAF period. Thick high clouds continue to stream overhead in advance of a quick moving storm system that will bring precipitation to the area overnight into Friday morning. As moisture surges back into the area ceilings will lower along with return of rain. Visibility will gradually lower as well with a mix of IFR/LIFR restrictions common. Snow may mix with the rain for a few hours early Friday morning at KHKY. Precipitation moves out of the area through the morning, but fog/mist and low stratus will linger through the rest of the forecast with no signs of improvement until beyond 00z Saturday. Winds will be light through the period and generally out of the northeast following a wind shift early this evening. Outlook: A brief break in restrictions is expected Saturday, but another storm system may bring some precip chances and low clouds Sunday into Monday. Dry weather is expected to return by Tuesday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ033-049- 050-501-503-505. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ048-052- 053-059-063-064. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RWH NEAR TERM...ARK SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...TW ####018005091#### FXUS63 KOAX 042308 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 508 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as some snow moves through. The highest potential for at least 1" will be northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line (40-70% chance). - High temperatures over the next week will generally be in the 30s and 40s, but Sunday will be colder, with highs in the teens to mid 20s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Early afternoon analysis showed an upper level trough axis passing through the area while surface high pressure was sitting over IA/IL/MO. In addition, a surface warm front was approaching from the west and will give us relief from the cold, with the mid 30s-40s behind it progged to move into the forecast area on Friday. A few pieces of short term guidance also suggest we could see some patchy fog develop along the front as it pushes through late tonight/early Friday. By late morning/early afternoon Friday, some weak shortwave energy will be passing by to our north with associated snow falling across SD/MN. Most guidance suggests any accumulation will stay to our north, though a few pieces of short term guidance show some showery precip near a cold front progged to pass through Friday afternoon. If these develop, could see some brief snow or even sleet showers given the convective nature depicted by various CAMs. However, model soundings don't show much in the way of instability and saturated layers are fairly shallow, so confidence in them occurring is on the lower side (5-10% chance). Attention then turns to snow chances Saturday into early Sunday. Some shortwave energy currently over the Gulf of Alaska will push toward the Rockies by Saturday morning while a surface low spins up over eastern WY and eventually pushes through NE and KS Saturday afternoon/evening. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that a band of frontogenesis and snow sets up somewhere over SD/NE/IA, though still some differences in exact track with EPS members generally a little farther northeast than other guidance. As it stands, consensus gives areas northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line about a 40-70% chance of at least 1". The heaviest snow would likely fall Saturday afternoon into the evening and come to an end by sunrise on Sunday. Expect some slick spots in these areas, as well as potential for some reduced visibility with wind gusts of 20-25 mph at times. Farther south, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with guidance good warm air advection across southeast NE into southwest IA. As a result, model soundings show fairly deep low level saturation with lack of in-cloud ice at times, suggesting potential for some drizzle. With surface temperatures hovering right around freezing, some ice accumulation could occur, but still lots of smaller scale details to work out and just 1 degree could make a pretty big difference, so confidence in this is quite low. We'll be quite cold again behind the precip, with highs on Sunday in the teens to mid 20s as surface high pressure builds in. Lows that night will be a little more questionable as the high pushes east and southerly flow/warm air advection return. Currently have lows in single digits above and below 0, coolest over west-central IA, but if that warm air advection ramps up quicker and we get some resulting cloud cover, we could end up several degrees warmer. We'll then trend warmer to start next week with highs in the upper 20s and 30s Monday followed by upper 30s and 40s Tuesday. Guidance is in decent agreement that another system tracks through the Plains sometime Tuesday night or Wednesday, though still lots of spread on timing and track. For now, have a 15-20% chance of precip (rain and snow), but overall confidence is pretty low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 502 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 The MVFR ceilings over OFK have eroded this evening. The remaining MVFR ceilings are expected to remain west of OMA and LNK, but the potential for a brief reduction in ceilings will continued to be monitored over the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will be predominant. Winds are southerly this evening with speeds between 10 to 15 kts. Winds speeds will gradually decrease this evening. LLWS is anticipated early tonight as a strong southwesterly low-level jet overspreads the weakening southerly winds at the surface. LNK and OMA are most likely to see impacts with OFK remaining just below LLWS criteria. By early morning, any LLWS should cease. Winds become more westerly heading into Friday afternoon as a frontal system begins to move into the region. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Chehak ####018009348#### FXUS61 KCLE 042309 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 609 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An Arctic cold front will sweep through the area early this morning. High pressure will build in later today into Friday. Another cold front will through the area on Sunday. High pressure will build in late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front from this morning has cleared the area to the east and high pressure will begin to build in from the west. Ahead of the high, winds will stay gusty, around 20-25 mph, but will start to taper off as the high builds in. Additionally, cloud cover will start to clear for the majority of the region with the influx of drier low level moisture. There are a few spots along and downwind of the snowbelt that may have some prolonged cloud coverage due to northwesterly flow across the lake and, for areas in Pennsylvania primarily, a connection from Lake Huron. With high pressure moving in, it will bring in much colder temperatures this evening and overnight tonight. Locations across the CWA have struggled to warm even after clearing and have been around 20-25F throughout the day with wind chills in the low teens to single digits. Temperatures will continue to drop as the high pressure moves overhead overnight tonight with efficient radiational cooling. Overnight lows tonight will be down into the single digits for much of the region with locations near the lakeshore staying around 10F. Winds will be light with the high overhead, but with any light wind, wind chills will drop down below 5F with locations in the I-75 corridor and higher elevations being near zero or just below. There is potential that some locations may reach record low temperatures tonight. High pressure will drift off to the east by Friday morning and there will be some southerly flow across the region that will warm temperatures up into upper 20s to low 30s for daytime highs with mostly sunny skies. Friday night lows will be warmer than the previous night, but still chilly with lows down into the upper teens to low 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave will be moving through the region on Saturday that could bring a chance for scattered snow showers across the region along a surface cold front. Precipitation chances will be on the low end for the majority of the CWA, though there will be potential for lake effect snow showers throughout the day and into early Sunday. Accumulation will be minimal across the snowbelt with totals around an inch or less. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will be able to warm up into the mid 30s, which will bring a chance for a rain/snow mix during the afternoon into the early evening. Colder air will arrive after frontal passage and any precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow. On Sunday, there will be a stronger shortwave moving through the region that will have a better shot at widespread snow showers across the region, though areas within the primary and secondary snowbelts will have the better chance of some light accumulations. There will be some northwesterly flow behind this feature that could bring scattered lake effect snow showers to northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania through late Sunday night. Overnight lows for Sunday night will be back down into the mid to low teens with some isolated spots of single digits. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A similar pattern will continue through the long term as the upper level ridge across the southwestern CONUS and upper level troughing over the Hudson Bay persists. High pressure will build in briefly on Monday behind the cold front from the weekend with dry weather expected to start the week. Models have shown a series of shortwaves moving through the region starting Tuesday through the middle of the week. There is less agreement for the system on Tuesday, but a majority of the long range models have a stronger clipper system moving through on Wednesday that could bring a shot for light snow accumulation across the region. Temperatures in the long term will continue to be below average with the current pattern in place. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... High pressure will maintain influence over the region through the TAF period, resulting in VFR conditions through 00Z Saturday. Some low-end VFR ceilings in lake effect clouds are likely at KERI and other NW PA/extreme NE OH locations through this evening, however ceilings will rise as south/southwest flow develops by early Friday morning. Winds will generally be light and variable tonight before becoming south/southwest and increasing to about 10 knots by late Friday morning. Outlook...Periodic snow and/or rain showers with non-VFR are expected this Saturday through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory in effect for U.S. nearshore waters: - Until 5 PM EST today from Avon Point, OH to Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH - Until 7 PM today from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Ripley, NY A high pressure ridge affects Lake Erie through Friday night as the embedded high pressure center moves from near the Upper MS Valley to Atlantic waters near Nova Scotia. NW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots this afternoon become variable in direction and ease to around 5 to 10 knots this evening. Accordingly, waves as large as 3 to 6 feet this afternoon subside to 3 feet or less by 7 PM EST this evening and to 2 feet or less by midnight tonight. During the predawn hours of Friday morning through daybreak Saturday, winds are expected to become primarily S'erly to SW'erly and freshen gradually to around 15 to 25 knots as the aforementioned ridge exits slowly E'ward and interacts with a trough along a cold front that will approach from the north-central U.S. and eventually the western Great Lakes. The S'erly to SW'erly winds should trend strongest over the open U.S. waters. Waves should build gradually to as large as 3 to 7 feet and trend largest in open U.S. waters given forecast fetch. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. On Saturday, the cold front will sweep generally SE'ward across Lake Erie. The front's passage will cause S'erly to SW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots to veer to W'erly to NW'erly and ease to around 5 to 15 knots as a ridge attempts to build from the north-central U.S. Waves as large as 3 to 7 feet ahead of the front will subside gradually to 3 feet or less by midnight Sunday morning, behind the front. On Sunday, the front should waver in a north-south manner in the Lake Erie region as a low wobbles ENE'ward from the east-central Great Plains to the northeast U.S. and strengthens slightly. Primarily W'erly to N'erly winds should freshen gradually from around 5 to 15 knots to as strong as 15 to 25 knots. However, winds may shift to S'erly to SW'erly for a time over at least southern portions of the lake, but this will depend on the progression of the front. Waves should be 3 feet or less through Sunday afternoon and then build to as large as 4 to 6 feet Sunday evening, which would prompt another Small Craft Advisory. On Monday, a ridge should build from the Upper MS Valley through about midday. In response, NW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots should veer to N'erly to NE'erly and ease gradually to 5 to 10 knots. This ridge should then exit generally E'ward during the rest of Monday and allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward across Lake Erie. Accordingly, N'erly to NE'erly winds will veer to S'erly to SW'erly and freshen gradually to around 10 to 20 knots. Based on the wind and fetch forecast, waves as large as 4 to 6 feet Monday morning, should subside to 3 feet or less for Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, S'erly to SW'erly winds should freshen further to around 20 to 30 knots as the ridge continues to exit gradually E'ward, a deepening low moves generally E'ward across the northern Great Lakes and vicinity, the low's trailing cold front approaches Lake Erie from the northwest, and the ridge and low interact with one another. Waves should build to as large as 5 to 10 feet, with the largest waves expected in open U.S. waters east of The Islands. Will continue to monitor this part of the forecast for the need of a Small Craft Advisory. && .CLIMATE... Near-record cold low temperatures are expected in portions of our region tomorrow morning, especially farther inland from Lake Erie. Here are the record cold low temperatures for December 5th: Toledo: -2F (1976) Mansfield: 1F (1957) Cleveland: 2F (1871) Akron: 7F (1991) Youngstown: 9F (1991) Erie, PA: -2F (1886) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...23 NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM...23 AVIATION...15 MARINE...Jaszka CLIMATE...